计算机 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2026 年 2 月 28 日 黄仁勋称代理式 AI 拐点已至； 朱雀三号有望年内复用飞行 计算机行业"一周解码" 英伟达 2026 财年第四季度财报营收与指引均超预期，黄仁勋称代理式 AI 拐点已至， 并看好云厂商资本支出转化收益；蓝箭航天计划于 2026 年第二季度再次开展朱雀三 号火箭回收试验，若成功，将在第四季度尝试首次重复使用飞行。 支撑评级的要点 投资建议 ◼ 建议关注 AI Agent、云与基础设施及商业航天板块企业，包括汉得信息、用友网 络、赛意信息、鼎捷数智、润泽科技、博睿数据、星环科技、中科星图、星图测 控、佳缘科技、航天宏图、上海瀚讯、盛邦安全等。 评级面临的主要风险 ◼ 技术创新不及预期；政策推行不到位；下游需求景气度不稳定的风险。 相关研究报告 《科技巨头加速 AI 军备竞赛，资本整合与 战略重组塑造行业新格局》20260130 《持续把握商业航天机会》20260125 《AI 商业化加速落地，核心科技自主可控 需求再燃》20260119 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 计算机 证券分析师：杨思睿 (8610)6622932 ...

这意味着，不论是用于大模型训练的高端GPU，还是支撑大型集群的高速网络组件，均处于增长状态。 在算力部署中，除了大众熟知的Blackwell系列芯片外，NVLink计算架构、以太网、InfiniBand平台等英 伟达的互联产品，也在迅速发展。 英伟达这份财报披露的一些数据超过此前市场预期。而面向2027财年，英伟达的指引还在增长，预计 2027财年第一财季营收为780亿美元，再次超出分析师预期。不过，中国市场依然存在悬念，财报指 出，截至目前，英伟达还没有在H200许可项目下产生任何收入。 英伟达CFO透露，接下来全年，英伟达还会继续销售Blackwell，同时销售Rubin架构芯片。游戏业务方 面，希望内存供应今年底的情况有所改变，目前看，未来几个季度供应还会非常紧张。汽车及机器人业 务方面，robotaxi服务正在增长，一些robotaxi公司的运营规模将在未来十年扩大数百万辆。 "算力即收入" 英伟达以一份打破纪录的财报，试图回击外界对AI泡沫的质疑。2月25日美股盘后，英伟达公布最新财 报，营收和利润都双位数攀升，再创历史新高。在市场对AI泡沫和云厂商数据中心资本支出表现出巨 大的担忧之际，英伟达CE ...

Core Insights - Nvidia has achieved record high performance in the AI era, with fiscal year 2026 revenue reaching $215.94 billion, a 65% year-over-year increase, and net profit of $120.07 billion, also up 65% [2] - CEO Jensen Huang expressed confidence in the exponential growth of computing power demand, stating that the tipping point for generative AI has arrived, with enterprises accelerating the deployment of intelligent systems [2] Group 1: Financial Performance - For Q4 of fiscal year 2026, Nvidia reported revenue of $68.13 billion, a 73% year-over-year increase and a 20% quarter-over-quarter increase; net profit was $42.96 billion, up 94% year-over-year and 35% quarter-over-quarter [5] - Gross margin for the quarter reached 75%, compared to 73% in the same period last year [5] - Despite missing significant revenue from the Chinese market, Nvidia's performance remained strong, with revenue growth driven by the release of Blackwell and Blackwell Ultra products [6] Group 2: Market Challenges - Nvidia's high-end chips have not yet generated revenue in the Chinese market, despite U.S. government approval for limited exports of the H200 product [3] - The absence of high-end chips in China represents a significant loss, as revenue from this market previously accounted for 20% of Nvidia's total revenue [3][4] - Local Chinese competitors have gained market share during Nvidia's absence, with recent IPOs indicating their growing strength [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - Nvidia anticipates revenue of approximately $78 billion for Q1 of fiscal year 2027, supported by the upcoming mass production of Rubin architecture chips [6] - The data center segment remains the largest revenue source, with Q4 revenue reaching $62.31 billion, a 75% year-over-year increase [6] - Concerns exist regarding the sustainability of growth from cloud computing giants, as their capital expenditures are projected to reach $700 billion in 2026, with potential cash flow pressures [7][8]

Core Insights - Nvidia reported record revenue of $68.1 billion for Q4 FY2026, a 73% year-over-year increase, with a GAAP net profit of $42.96 billion, up 94% [2] - The company anticipates continued exponential growth in AI demand, with CEO Jensen Huang stating that the adoption of agentic AI is at a turning point [2] - Nvidia's Q4 revenue and guidance for the next quarter exceeded analyst expectations, indicating strong market performance [3] Financial Performance - For Q4 FY2026, Nvidia's data center revenue reached $62.3 billion, a 75% increase year-over-year, while gaming revenue was $3.7 billion, up 47% but down 13% quarter-over-quarter [4] - The company achieved a total revenue of $215.9 billion for FY2026, a 65% increase, with net profit of $120.07 billion, also up 65% [2][4] - Nvidia's data center revenue has grown nearly 13 times since the launch of ChatGPT, with over 50% of this revenue coming from large cloud service providers [4] Business Segments - Nvidia's professional visualization revenue was $1.3 billion, a 159% increase year-over-year, while automotive and robotics revenue was $604 million, up 6% [4] - The company plans to continue selling its Blackwell and Rubin architecture chips, while facing tight memory supply in the gaming sector [5] - Nvidia is exploring opportunities in space data centers, indicating potential future applications for AI in space [5] Strategic Investments - Nvidia is nearing an agreement with OpenAI and is focused on expanding its ecosystem through strategic investments [6] - The company has entered a non-exclusive technology licensing agreement with Groq to enhance AI infrastructure performance [6] Market Concerns - There are ongoing concerns about an AI bubble, with analysts noting that high capital expenditures by tech giants could pose systemic credit risks [7] - A recent survey indicated that 23% of investors view the threat from an AI bubble as their primary concern, up from 9% in December [7] - Analysts express confidence in customer cash flow growth driven by AI applications, despite concerns about potential peaks in capital expenditures for large data centers [8]

英伟达的最新季度财报被视为反映AI热潮的风向标。 2026财年，英伟达营收2159亿美元，同比增长65%，GAAP净利润1200.7亿美元，同比增长65%。 "计算需求呈指数级增长，代理式（Agentic）AI的转折点已经到来。"英伟达CEO黄仁勋表示，企业对智能体的采用率正在飙升。 英伟达这份财报被视为反映AI需求的风向标。财报发布当天，英伟达股价涨1.44%，盘后一度涨超2%，随后涨幅缩窄。 当地时间2月25日，英伟达发布截至2026年1月25日的2026财年第四季度财报。该季度英伟达营收681亿美元，同比增长73%，创历史新高；GAAP净利润 429.6亿美元，同比增长94%；毛利率75%，同比增长2个百分点。 对于此前对Anthropic和OpenAI的投资，黄仁勋表示，英伟达已接近与OpenAI达成协议，公司在投资战略上明确专注于扩大生态系统并深入填补生态系统缺 口。此外，此前英伟达与Groq达成一项非排他性技术许可协议，黄仁勋称英伟达将利用Groq的技术进行扩展，以达到更高级别的AI基础设施性能和价值。 市场仍担忧AI泡沫 AI泡沫论近期依然盛行，英伟达的最新季度财报被视为反映AI热潮的风向标。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Stock Index Futures: Oscillating [1] - Treasury Bond Futures: Relatively Strong [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - The A-share market adjusted with oscillations throughout the day, with the ChiNext Index dropping nearly 2%. AI-related concepts and some sectors like oil and gas and power grid equipment showed strength, while the commercial spaceflight concept declined. The trading volume reached 3.7 trillion yuan, setting a new record. The rise of the A-share index at the beginning of 2026 was driven by global technological development, the Fed's potential interest rate cuts, and the weakening dollar. The tense global geopolitical situation led to a short-term surge in rare metals. With the index at a high level and heavy trading volume, caution is advised when chasing high prices, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - On Tuesday, treasury bond futures closed with gains in some contracts. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net capital withdrawal. The short-term sufficient liquidity supports the bond market, but factors such as economic stability, rising inflation, and cautiousness towards interest rate cuts pose certain constraints. The bond market is expected to remain in a range-bound oscillation pattern in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Stock Index Futures**: The market adjusted with oscillations, with the ChiNext Index down nearly 2%. AI medical, AI pharmaceutical, AI marketing, oil and gas, and power grid equipment sectors performed well, while the commercial spaceflight concept retreated. The trading volume reached 3.7 trillion yuan, a new record. The index rise at the beginning of 2026 was driven by global technological development, the Fed's potential interest rate cuts, and the weakening dollar. The tense geopolitical situation led to a short - term surge in rare metals. With the index at a high level and heavy trading volume, caution is needed when chasing high prices, and it is advisable to wait and see [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On Tuesday, the 30 - year, 10 - year, and 5 - year treasury bond futures contracts closed higher, while the 2 - year contract remained stable. The central bank conducted 3586 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net capital withdrawal of 2576 billion yuan. The short - term sufficient liquidity supports the bond market, but economic stability, rising inflation, and cautiousness towards interest rate cuts pose constraints. The bond market is expected to remain range - bound in the short term [2]. 3.2 Price Changes on the Day - **Stock Index Futures**: On January 13, 2026, IH decreased by 0.08%, IF by 0.32%, IC by 1.28%, and IM by 1.82% compared to the previous day [4]. - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite 50 Index decreased by 0.34%, the CSI 300 Index by 0.60%, the CSI 500 Index by 1.28%, and the CSI 1000 Index by 1.84% [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: TS decreased by 0.01%, TF remained unchanged, T increased slightly by 0.00%, and TL increased by 0.13% [4]. 3.3 Market News - The market adjusted with oscillations throughout the day, with the ChiNext Index down nearly 2%. AI - related concepts and some sectors like oil and gas and power grid equipment showed strength, while the commercial spaceflight concept declined. The trading volume reached 3.7 trillion yuan, a new record. The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.64%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 1.37%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.96% [5]. - AI medical, AI pharmaceutical, AI marketing, and oil and gas sectors led the gains, while commercial spaceflight, controlled nuclear fusion, quantum technology, and optical communication sectors led the losses [5]. - There were 1520 rising stocks, 74 daily limit stocks, 3547 falling stocks, 56 daily limit down stocks, and 58 stocks with broken daily limits, with a broken - limit rate of 47% [5]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report presents the historical price trends and basis trends of IH, IF, IC, and IM contracts [7][9][11]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report shows the historical price trends, basis trends, inter - period spread trends, cross - variety spread trends, and capital interest rate trends of treasury bond futures contracts [14][16][19][22]. - **Exchange Rates**: The report displays the historical trends of the central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB, the euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, and exchange rates between major currencies [24][25][26][28][30].

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's stock price has declined by 9.1% since reaching an all-time high on October 29, 2022, raising concerns about the sustainability of investments in the AI industry and Nvidia's market dominance [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Nvidia's stock price has dropped significantly, with a cumulative decline of 9.1% since its peak, underperforming compared to the S&P 500 index [1] - The company's market capitalization has evaporated by approximately $460 billion (around 3.2 trillion RMB) in a few months, reducing its three-year stock price increase to nearly 1200% [1][5] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Nvidia holds over 90% market share in the AI accelerator sector, but faces increasing competition from traditional rivals like AMD and new entrants such as Alphabet and Amazon [1][6] - AMD is projected to see a 60% growth in data center revenue by 2026, reaching nearly $26 billion, as major clients seek to develop their own chips to avoid high costs associated with Nvidia's products [6] Group 3: Profitability and Valuation - Nvidia's gross margin is expected to remain in the mid-70% range for fiscal years 2024 and 2025, but is projected to decline in fiscal year 2026 due to rising costs from the Blackwell chip series [7] - Analysts express concerns that any signs of weakness in Nvidia's pricing strategy could negatively impact its profit margins, which are critical indicators of profitability [7] - Some analysts believe that the current valuation of Nvidia suggests an end to the industry cycle, presenting a potential investment opportunity, contrasting with previous market peaks [7]

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's stock price has dropped 9.1% since reaching an all-time high on October 29, 2022, raising concerns about the sustainability of AI investments and Nvidia's market dominance [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Nvidia's stock price has seen a significant increase of over 1300% since the end of 2022, with its market capitalization surpassing $5 trillion, but has since lost approximately $460 billion in value [1] - The company's stock performance has lagged behind the S&P 500 index, indicating growing investor concerns [1] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Nvidia holds over 90% market share in the AI accelerator sector, but competitors like AMD are gaining traction with large data center orders from companies such as OpenAI and Oracle [2][3] - Major tech companies including Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft are developing their own chips to avoid the high costs associated with Nvidia's products, which could impact Nvidia's revenue as these companies account for over 40% of its income [3] Group 3: Profitability and Valuation - Nvidia's gross margin is projected to remain in the mid-70% range for fiscal years 2024 and 2025, but is expected to decline to 71.2% in fiscal year 2026 due to rising costs from the Blackwell chip series [4] - Analysts express concerns that any signs of weakness in Nvidia's pricing strategy could negatively impact its profit margins, prompting increased scrutiny from investors [4] - Some analysts believe that the current valuation of Nvidia suggests an end to the industry cycle, presenting a potential investment opportunity, contrasting with previous market peaks [4]

Group 1 - The world's first household robot, Neo, developed by 1X Technology and backed by OpenAI, is now available for pre-order at a price of $20,000 (approximately 145,000 RMB) [2] - Neo can operate for up to 4 hours on a single charge, stands 1.68 meters tall, weighs 30 kg, and is equipped with a camera for remote viewing [2] - The robot can be controlled via a mobile app or voice commands and is programmable to perform various household tasks such as watering plants, cleaning the dishwasher, and organizing rooms [2] Group 2 - The U.S. Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%, marking the fifth rate cut since September 2024 [19] - This decision aligns with market expectations and is aimed at mitigating risks in the labor market [19] Group 3 - Nvidia has become the first company to reach a market capitalization of $5 trillion, with its stock rising 3% on October 29, 2025 [18] - CEO Jensen Huang revealed that the highly anticipated Blackwell chip is now in full production in Arizona, and preparations are underway for the next-generation Rubin architecture [18]

Core Viewpoint - NVIDIA's stock price surged over 5%, reaching a market capitalization of $5.13 trillion, making it the first company to surpass the $5 trillion mark [3] Group 1: Financial Performance - For the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, NVIDIA reported revenue of $46.743 billion, a year-on-year increase of 56%, slightly exceeding market expectations [7] - The net profit (GAAP) for the same quarter was $26.422 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 59% [7] - Data center revenue was $41.1 billion, also up 56% year-on-year, but slightly below market expectations [7] Group 2: Product Developments - CEO Jensen Huang indicated strong AI demand, projecting that revenue from Blackwell and Rubin architecture chips could exceed $500 billion from 20 million GPUs by 2026, five times the revenue from Hopper architecture chips between 2023 and 2025 [4] - The Rubin chip, which boasts a computing power of 100 PFlops, is set to enter production by next year [5] - NVIDIA announced a $1 billion investment in Nokia to accelerate AI-RAN innovation, facilitating the transition from 5G to 6G [5] - The company introduced the NVIDIA BlueField-4 data processor, which will support AI factory operating systems and is part of the Rubin architecture products scheduled for release in 2026 [6] Group 3: Market Context - The surge in stock prices for NVIDIA, Microsoft, and Apple reflects the ongoing global AI wave, with Apple reaching a market cap of $4 trillion and Microsoft at $4.04 trillion [7] - There is ongoing debate in the market regarding the potential bubble in AI stocks, with differing opinions from investment leaders [7]