来源：环球 【环球时报-环球网报道 记者 倪浩 张依依】当地时间1月6日，英伟达CEO黄仁勋在拉斯维加斯国际消 费电子展（CES）期间透露，目前正与美国政府完成（H200芯片对华出口）许可的最后细节，预计很 快就可以向中国交付。去年12月8日，美国政府允许英伟达在符合"国家安全条件"下向中国"批准客 户"出口H200芯片。随后，媒体放风英伟达将在2026年春节前向中国交付首批芯片。 中国半导体行业协会副理事长魏少军近日在接受《环球时报》记者独家专访时表示，"从行业发展角度 看，高端算力资源的合理流动有助于促进人工智能等前沿技术的应用探索。科技无国界，合作促进步。 只要符合双方监管要求，任何有利于技术创新和产业发展的良性互动都值得欢迎。" H200芯片是英伟达仅次于Blackwell系列的次顶级芯片，在拜登政府时期被禁止对华出口。特朗普政府 在限制出口最先进Blackwell系列芯片与"完全不出口反而助长中国更快实现国产替代"之间寻求平衡，最 终允许有条件放开H200芯片对华出口，但需获得美国商务部出口许可审批。 "在这个角度上，美国变幻不定的态度，在高端芯片上时而'解禁'时而施压，让用户难以确认其真实战 略意 ...

北京时间1月6日，据彭博社报道，随着2026年的到来，全球市值最高公司英伟达在股市中的地位正变得摇摇欲坠。 英伟达是AI加速器领域的头号生产商，占据了超过90%的市场份额。但竞争对手正开始逐步发力、追赶上来。 黄仁勋在CES上展示Rubin架构芯片 自去年10月29日创下历史新高以来，英伟达公司股价已累计下跌9.1%，表现远逊于标普500指数。投资者日益担忧AI行业投入的可持续性以及英伟达对市场 的掌控力。 此次股价下跌尤为引人注目，因为就在该股上次创下收盘历史新高当日，其股价自2022年底以来已累计上涨超过1300%，市值突破5万亿美元，而不到三年 前其市值仅约为4000亿美元。如今，该公司市值在几个月内已蒸发4600亿美元(约合3.2万亿元人民币)，使其三年股价涨幅收窄至近1200%。 与此同时，英伟达正面临比以往任何时候都更激烈的竞争，不仅包括AMD等传统竞争对手，也包括Alphabet、亚马逊等大客户。华尔街也越来越担心英伟达 对其许多客户的投资，这可能会被视作人为支撑需求。 "(英伟达的)风险显然已经上升。"管理着130亿美元资产的Advisors Capital Management合伙人兼投资组 ...

黄仁勋在CES上展示Rubin架构芯片 凤凰网科技讯北京时间1月6日，据彭博社报道，随着2026年的到来，全球市值最高公司英伟达在股市中 的地位正变得摇摇欲坠。 自去年10月29日创下历史新高以来，英伟达公司股价已累计下跌9.1%，表现远逊于标普500指数。投资 者日益担忧AI行业投入的可持续性以及英伟达对市场的掌控力。 不过，摩根士丹利分析师、包括对该股给出"买入"评级的约瑟夫.摩尔(Joseph Moore)上个月在一份研究 报告中写道："市场低估了英伟达的地位。我们仍然认为，在云计算领域，英伟达将是投资回报率最高 的解决方案。" 估值和利润率 面对竞争对手提供更低廉的替代方案，投资者正密切关注英伟达的利润率，因为该公司定价策略的任何 疲软迹象都将在利润率上显现。 "(英伟达的)风险显然已经上升。"管理着130亿美元资产的Advisors Capital Management合伙人兼投资组 合经理乔安妮.菲尼(JoAnne Feeney)表示。 芯片竞争 英伟达是AI加速器领域的头号生产商，占据了超过90%的市场份额。但竞争对手正开始逐步发力、追赶 上来。 英伟达股价自2022年底上涨近1200% AMD ...

图片来源：英伟达直播截图 2026年将是英伟达史无前例的支出大年，英伟达正力证自身的在AI领域的绝对实力和领先优势。 1月6日，在CES 2026首日的主题演讲中，英伟达CEO黄仁勋将公司备受瞩目的新一代超级新品Rubin芯 片的进展作为压轴好戏发布。 黄仁勋表示，Rubin架构旨在打造令人难以置信的AI超级计算机，开启下一代人工智能。 实际上，英伟达早在2024年就已对外公布了Rubin架构的存在，彼时英伟达的主力芯片还是Hooper系 列。此后，英伟达一直在更新Rubin的进展。 在2025年10月的华盛顿GTC大会上，黄仁勋第一次对外展示了Rubin芯片的样片，并透露其算力指标能 达到当时主力出货产品Blackwell系列芯片的3倍以上。 彼时，市场普遍预计英伟达将在2026年下半年正式发布并量产Rubin。而此次在CES上，黄仁勋宣布 Rubin架构目前已经实现全面投产，时间节点大幅提前。 不过，黄仁勋也同时表示，Rubin的产能放量预计会在今年下半年，届时基于Rubin平台打造的芯片也将 进入出货阶段。 根据英伟达官方发布的新闻，Rubin平台的整体架构由六颗芯片构成，包括居于核心地位的NVIDIA ...

Dec. 10, 2025 产业洞察 观察中国整体高阶AI芯片市场发展，预估2 0 2 6年总量有望成长逾6 0%。预计2 0 2 6年本土AI芯 片 仍 会 朝 向 自 主 化 发 展 ， 较 具 发 展 潜 力 的 主 要 IC 设 计 业 者 有 机 会 扩 大 市 场 占 比 至 5 0% 左 右 ， NVIDIA H2 0 0或AMD MI 3 2 5等其他同级的海外产品，在可输入中国市场的情况下，有机会维 持约近3 0%占比。 H2 0 0因效能明显优于H2 0，出口中国有望吸引CSP、OEM采购。 预估2 0 2 6年中国主要IC设计业者AI芯片占比将提升至5 0% 如果你觉得这篇文章有价值，记得点赞并分享给更多人知道！ TrendForce集邦咨询 TrendForce 半导体产业 趋势分析 商业洞察 信息精选 据新华社报道，美国将允许NVIDIA（英伟达）向中国出口H2 0 0芯片，Tr e n dFo r c e集邦咨询表 示 ， H2 0 0 效 能 较 H2 0 大 幅 提 升 ， 对 终 端 客 户 具 有 吸 引 力 ， 若 2 0 2 6 年 能 顺 利 销 售 ， 预 期 中 ...

据知情人士透露，英伟达已经构建了一项位置验证技术，可用于指示其芯片所处的国家。这项举措 有望帮助阻止其人工智能芯片被走私至出口受限的国家。 该功能在过去几个月中已进行私下展示，但尚未正式发布。知情人士表示，它将作为一项可由客户 安装的软件选项，利用英伟达 GPU 的"机密计算"（ confidential computing ）能力来实现。 英伟达的一位负责人介绍，这款软件最初是为了让客户能够追踪芯片的整体计算性能——这是大型 数据中心运营商在采购大批处理器时的常见需求——并将通过与英伟达服务器通信的时间延迟来推 断芯片的大致位置，其精度大致与其他基于互联网的定位服务相当。 英伟达在一份声明中表示："我们正在实施一项新的软件服务，使数据中心运营商能够监控其整个 AI GPU 集群的健康状态和库存情况。这款由客户自行安装的软件代理将利用 GPU 遥测数据来监 测集群健康状况、完整性和库存信息。" 据这位英伟达负责人透露，该功能将首先在英伟达最新的" Blackwell "系列芯片上提供，因为它 们在"证明"（ attestation ）流程方面具备比此前的 Hopper 和 Ampere 两代产品更强的安全功 ...

当地时间12月8日，美国总统特朗普宣布，美国将在"确保国家安全"的前提下，允许英伟达(Nvidia)向中 国及其他批准客户出口其H200人工智能(AI)芯片，美国政府将从相关销售额中抽取25%分成。 虽不及顶级Blackwell系列与即将到来的Rubin代产品，但H200的性能仍显著高于此前被允许在华销售的 H20，市场普遍认为此举将为公司在华业务打开新的空间。 英伟达CFO克莱特.克雷斯(Colette Kress)此前曾表示，如果地缘政治紧张缓解，公司每季度可向中国出 货20亿至50亿美元的芯片，并视订单规模进一步增长。 过去数月，英伟达一直面对美国监管的全面压力，努力维持其进入中国市场的渠道。今年早些时候，公 司曾表示愿向美方支付来自一款低性能芯片在中国销售额15%的分成，但该计划未能成功。 对于芯片出口问题，美国政府内部分歧严重。包括国务卿鲁比奥在内的强硬派官员曾否决英伟达有关简 化版Blackwell芯片的出口提议；而白宫人工智能和加密货币事务负责人戴维.萨克斯与商务部长卢特尼 克则支持将出口H200作为折衷方案，既维持英伟达在与华为竞争中的优势，同时避免中国在AI技术上 的"过度追赶"。 外界认为 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing debate about the existence of an AI bubble, particularly in light of Nvidia's recent earnings report, which exceeded market expectations and provided a positive outlook for future growth [4][6][20]. Group 1: Nvidia's Financial Performance - Nvidia reported third-quarter revenue of $57 billion, a 62% increase year-over-year, with diluted earnings per share of $1.3, surpassing market expectations [5][20]. - The data center business contributed $51.2 billion in revenue, accounting for nearly 90% of total revenue, and grew by 66% year-over-year [20][21]. - Nvidia provided a bold fourth-quarter revenue guidance of approximately $65 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of about 65% [20][21]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Implications - Following the earnings report, Nvidia's stock price surged over 6% in after-hours trading, positively impacting other tech giants like Amazon, Microsoft, and Google [6][20]. - Despite the positive earnings, concerns about the sustainability of AI spending and potential market corrections remain prevalent among analysts [6][12]. Group 3: Strategic Positioning and Collaborations - Nvidia is evolving from a chip supplier to a central player in defining and orchestrating future AI computing power, as evidenced by its significant partnerships with OpenAI and Anthropic [26][27]. - The collaboration with OpenAI involves a $100 billion partnership to deploy Nvidia systems for AI infrastructure, indicating a strong commitment to future AI developments [26][27]. - Nvidia's partnerships with major tech companies are expected to drive substantial capital expenditures, further solidifying its market position [27][29]. Group 4: Industry Context and Challenges - The article highlights the critical role of Nvidia's earnings in assessing the broader AI narrative and its implications for the tech sector, especially amid macroeconomic uncertainties [10][11][12]. - Concerns about high valuations and the potential for a market correction are underscored by significant sell-offs from major investors, including Peter Thiel and Bridgewater Associates [15][16]. - The ongoing debate about whether AI represents a bubble is intensified by macroeconomic factors, including interest rate fluctuations and their impact on corporate financing [10][11][12].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the contrasting perspectives on the AI sector, particularly focusing on Nvidia's recent Q3 earnings report, which shows strong financial performance despite market concerns about potential bubbles in AI investments [5][21]. Financial Performance - Nvidia reported a record total revenue of $57.006 billion for Q3, a year-on-year increase of 62%, significantly surpassing market expectations of $54.92 billion [5]. - Net profit reached $31.91 billion, up 65% year-on-year, translating to a daily profit of $350 million [5]. - The Q4 revenue forecast is projected to be $65 billion, exceeding analyst expectations of $61.66 billion [5]. Business Segments - The data center business, contributing 89.5% of total revenue, is the core segment, with $43 billion in revenue, primarily driven by the Blackwell series chips [14]. - The gaming and AI PC segment generated $4.3 billion, showing a 30% year-on-year growth, with the RTX 50 series graphics cards dominating the high-end market [15][16]. - Professional visualization revenue reached $410 million, driven by demand in design tools and medical imaging [18]. - The automotive and robotics segment, while only 1% of total revenue, showed significant growth potential, with the DRIVE AGX Orin chip shipments increasing by 55% [19]. Market Dynamics - Nvidia's CEO reassured investors about the strong demand for GPUs, stating that every GPU is being utilized, indicating a robust growth cycle for AI [8]. - Despite the positive earnings report, Nvidia's stock experienced volatility due to external market factors, including changes in interest rate expectations and critical articles questioning the integrity of its financial data [9][10]. Future Outlook - Nvidia has committed to a revenue target of $500 billion, with clear visibility into data center revenues for 2025-2026, indicating strong future demand [22]. - Key growth drivers include the anticipated shift from training to inference demand, the rise of embodied AI, and the expansion of sovereign AI projects globally [22][24]. - The upcoming launch of the Rubin chip platform in 2026 is seen as a critical factor for sustaining growth and meeting future demand [25].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the contrasting perspectives on the AI sector, particularly focusing on Nvidia's recent Q3 earnings report, which shows strong financial performance despite concerns about potential bubbles in the AI market [1][2][4][30]. Financial Performance - Nvidia reported a record total revenue of $57.006 billion for Q3, a year-on-year increase of 62%, significantly surpassing market expectations of $54.92 billion [4]. - The net profit reached $31.91 billion, up 65% year-on-year, translating to a daily profit of $350 million [4]. - For Q4, Nvidia expects revenue to reach $65 billion, exceeding analyst expectations of $61.66 billion [5]. Business Segments - The data center business, contributing 89.5% of total revenue, generated $43 billion, primarily driven by the performance of the Blackwell series chips [20]. - The gaming and AI PC segment achieved $4.3 billion in revenue, with a 30% year-on-year growth, supported by strong sales of the RTX 50 series graphics cards [23]. - The professional visualization segment saw a revenue increase of 62% year-on-year, driven by demand in design tools and medical imaging [25]. - The automotive and robotics segment, while only 1% of total revenue, showed significant growth potential, with a 55% increase in shipments of the DRIVE AGX Orin chips [27]. Market Dynamics - Nvidia's CEO, Jensen Huang, emphasized the exponential growth in demand for GPUs, stating that every GPU is being utilized, indicating a healthy cycle for AI [7]. - Despite concerns raised by a controversial article alleging financial discrepancies within Nvidia's reporting, the company’s actual data appears robust upon closer examination [10][14][18]. - The article highlights the interconnected nature of funding within the AI sector, suggesting potential risks if the funding cycle were to break [12]. Future Outlook - Nvidia has committed to a revenue target of $500 billion, with clear visibility into data center revenue for the next two years [32]. - Key growth drivers include the anticipated shift from training to inference demand, the emergence of embodied AI, and the ongoing expansion of sovereign and enterprise AI projects [32]. - The success of the upcoming Rubin platform is seen as critical for sustaining growth, with expectations for advanced technology and increased production capacity [34]. Conclusion - Nvidia's Q3 results indicate a strong foundation for continued growth in the AI sector, despite the presence of speculative bubbles [30][31]. - The ongoing transformation of data centers into "AI factories" is expected to drive demand for several years, marking a significant shift in the industry [35].