Group 1 - Nvidia is set to announce its latest earnings report next Wednesday, with third-quarter performance guidance being a focal point for market attention [1] - Market expectations predict Nvidia's third-quarter revenue to reach $45.92 billion, with earnings per share at $1.01, although uncertainties regarding semiconductor export licenses may lead to potential revenue fluctuations [1] - Despite short-term challenges due to U.S. export restrictions to China, Nvidia's long-term outlook remains optimistic, supported by increased production capacity and improvements in the GPU supply chain [1] Group 2 - Nvidia's latest AI chip, Blackwell, is considered a key driver for the company's growth, with performance improvements showing a 2.2 times increase over the previous generation in AI training workloads [2] - Several investment firms have recently raised Nvidia's target price, reflecting confidence in its future growth, although some remain cautious about the need for strong performance to support current high valuations [2] - Despite the recent surge in Nvidia's stock price, some large institutional investors have begun to sell portions of their holdings, indicating a focus on high valuations and macroeconomic factors in the short term [2]

Core Viewpoint - CoreWeave is facing a significant test as approximately 84% of its Class A shares will be unlocked, potentially leading to stock price volatility. Analysts generally hold a neutral rating on the stock, with its current market capitalization being about 36 times the expected adjusted revenue for the next four quarters, surpassing Nvidia's valuation of 31 times [1][3]. Stock Unlocking and Market Sentiment - The upcoming unlocking of shares primarily held by insiders, including CEO Mike Intrator and key supplier Nvidia, may lead to increased stock availability in the market, raising concerns about insider selling intentions due to concentrated ownership [3]. - This event will also assess the market's ongoing enthusiasm for AI infrastructure and whether supply-demand dynamics will continue to favor CoreWeave [4]. Financial Performance and Growth - Despite the unlocking pressure, CoreWeave reported strong business growth, with Q2 revenue reaching $1.2 billion, more than tripling year-over-year, driven by AI workload-specific data centers equipped with Nvidia's latest Blackwell chips [6]. - However, market disappointment arose from lower-than-expected revenue backlog growth and concerns over the company's plans to significantly increase capital expenditures in Q4. Following these developments, CoreWeave's stock plummeted nearly 21% in one day, although it has surged nearly 200% since its IPO in March [6]. Debt and Expansion Strategy - CoreWeave currently carries over $11 billion in total debt while consuming cash during its network expansion efforts. The CEO emphasized that expanding capacity and services is crucial for success in a structurally supply-constrained market [9]. - The company anticipates that its data center network's megawatt capacity will nearly double by the end of the year [9]. Client Base and Strategic Growth - CoreWeave's growth heavily relies on major clients like Microsoft and Meta, which have increased their capital expenditure forecasts and plan to maintain strong spending in the coming year. Following significant capital expenditure increases reported by these companies, CoreWeave's stock jumped nearly 11% in a single day [11]. - The company has also driven growth through large deals, such as a $4 billion expansion agreement with OpenAI and a $9 billion stock acquisition of Core Scientific, indicating an aggressive expansion strategy [11]. - Notably, CoreWeave's IPO was relatively small, involving only about 11% of its float, which has contributed to stock price increases, even after recent declines. Analysts believe that as long as demand for CoreWeave's computing power remains strong, the stock is likely to remain a popular investment, although increased stock availability will prompt closer scrutiny of the company's ability to meet ongoing AI computing demands and support its high valuation [11].

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia is responding to strong demand in the Chinese market by ordering 300,000 H20 chips from TSMC, indicating a strategy to recover its business in China after U.S. export restrictions [2][3]. Group 1: Nvidia's Strategy and Market Response - Nvidia's order of 300,000 H20 chips is aimed at replenishing its inventory of 600,000 to 700,000 H20 chips that were affected by export bans [2]. - The H20 chip is specifically designed for the Chinese market, featuring lower computational power compared to Nvidia's H100 or Blackwell series [2]. - The recent order follows the Trump administration's decision to allow Nvidia to resume sales of H20 GPUs to China, lifting a previous ban aimed at restricting access to advanced AI chips [2][3]. Group 2: Market Demand and Competitive Landscape - Prior to the April ban, major Chinese tech companies like Tencent, ByteDance, and Alibaba significantly increased their orders for H20 chips for AI model deployment [3]. - Despite Huawei offering alternative products, Nvidia remains highly popular in China, with reports of demand for smuggled banned GPUs [3]. - Nvidia's management indicated that maintaining a presence in the Chinese market is crucial to prevent customers from turning to competitors like Huawei [3]. Group 3: Financial Implications - Following the April ban, Nvidia anticipated a potential inventory loss of $5.5 billion, with potential sales losses estimated at $15 billion, highlighting the importance of the Chinese market to Nvidia's revenue [3].

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia has reached a historic milestone by becoming the first company to surpass a market capitalization of $4 trillion, driven by the increasing demand for generative AI and its strong performance in the AI chip market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Nvidia's stock price rose to $163.9 per share, with a market capitalization exceeding $4 trillion, comparable to Japan's GDP for 2024 [1]. - The company’s market value has increased dramatically from under $1 trillion two years ago to nearly $4 trillion in just over a year [1][2]. - Analysts predict Nvidia's market capitalization could reach $6 trillion, with a target price increase from $175 to $250 per share [1][2]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For Q1 of the 2026 fiscal year, Nvidia reported revenues of $44.06 billion, a 69% year-over-year increase, and a GAAP net profit of $18.78 billion, up 26% [2]. - The data center business generated $39.1 billion in revenue, accounting for 89% of total revenue, with a 73% year-over-year growth [4]. Group 3: Industry Impact - Nvidia is driving the growth of the entire AI industry chain, with predictions indicating that the global semiconductor industry's growth in 2024 will largely stem from Nvidia [2]. - The company is expected to dominate the AI server market, holding approximately 70% of the market share, while AMD holds about 8% [3][4]. Group 4: Technological Advancements - Nvidia's Blackwell series chips are set to enhance its market position, with significant production increases expected in the coming years [3]. - The company is transitioning from the Hopper series to the Blackwell series, which is anticipated to boost the overall AI server market value [4]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Nvidia is entering a "decade of AI infrastructure development," with a focus on generative AI and robotics as major growth opportunities [6][7]. - The company is also accelerating its efforts in sovereign AI and large-scale government collaborations to strengthen its global market presence [7]. Group 6: Competitive Landscape - Despite facing challenges from competitors like AMD, Google, and Amazon, Nvidia maintains a strong position in high-end AI chip performance [8]. - The company is adapting its chip designs to comply with regulatory standards in the Chinese market while continuing to innovate [8].

Core Viewpoint - NVIDIA's recent earnings report did not meet market expectations, leading to a decline in AI stocks, with supply chain sources indicating a reduction in advanced packaging orders from TSMC [1][2]. Group 1: NVIDIA's Product and Market Dynamics - NVIDIA's CEO Jensen Huang emphasized strong market demand for the Blackwell series, with gross margins expected to remain around 70% during the ramp-up phase [1]. - The upcoming GTC event will showcase new products like Blackwell Ultra and GB300, with expectations for faster integration based on previous experiences with GB200 [2]. - The transition from the Hopper architecture to Blackwell architecture is underway, with production challenges noted due to lower yield rates of the new CoWoS-L packaging technology [4]. Group 2: TSMC's Capacity and Order Adjustments - TSMC's advanced packaging capacity remains near full utilization, but there are indications of a potential decrease in orders as the lifecycle of NVIDIA's previous GPU generation ends [1][3]. - Reports suggest that TSMC's CoWoS average monthly capacity has dropped to 62,500 wafers, below the expected 70,000 wafers, with NVIDIA's monthly orders also reduced from approximately 42,000 to 39,000 wafers [3]. - Despite rumors of order cuts, TSMC has denied these claims, stating that demand for CoWoS remains strong and that any perceived reductions may be due to process upgrades and product transitions [2][3]. Group 3: Future Prospects and Industry Trends - TSMC is ramping up production at its newly acquired facilities to meet the growing demand for advanced packaging technologies like CoWoS-L and SoIC [4]. - The industry anticipates that the new Rubin GPU and Vera CPU developments will contribute positively to market dynamics, with production expected to begin early next year [2].

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's stock price has significantly dropped, leading to a decline in the overall market, particularly affecting major tech stocks and the semiconductor sector [1][2][5]. Group 1: Nvidia's Performance - Nvidia's stock fell by 8.48%, closing at $120.15 per share, with its market capitalization dropping below $3 trillion to $2.93 trillion [4][2]. - The company reported Q4 2025 revenue of $39.3 billion, a 78% increase year-over-year, and a net profit of $22.09 billion, exceeding market expectations [6]. - For the entire fiscal year 2025, Nvidia's revenue reached $130.5 billion, reflecting a 114% year-over-year growth [6]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The decline in Nvidia's stock triggered a collective drop in the semiconductor sector, with companies like AMD and Supermicro experiencing significant losses [5]. - Major tech stocks, referred to as the "Seven Sisters," including Tesla, Amazon, and Google, also saw declines, with Tesla down 3.04% and Amazon down 2.62% [8]. - Investor sentiment has turned negative, with reports indicating a rise in panic among investors, as reflected in the drop of consumer confidence indices [9]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Nvidia's CEO expressed optimism about the demand for AI-driven computing, suggesting that future needs may exceed current capabilities by millions of times [6]. - The CFO indicated that supply constraints are expected to ease, potentially leading to a surge in growth in the upcoming quarter [7]. - Despite strong earnings, market outlook remains mixed, with analysts noting a shift in expectations regarding AI growth prospects [7].

撰 文 / 周 洲 设 计 / 琚 佳 75%。 这是芯片龙头英伟达2025财年的毛利率，堪称暴利。 2月26日，英伟达公布了2025财年及第四季度财报，并就财报召开了电话会议。 得益于近两年爆炸式增长的AI领域，数据中心业务为英伟达贡献了约90%的收入。 但中国初创公司DeepSeek在1月20日发布的低成本R1模型，打破了美国主导的巨额投入型AI模式， 也使得英伟达的股票遭遇了美国历史上最大的单日跌幅，市值蒸发近6000亿美元。 英伟达创始人兼首席执行官黄仁勋在随后的财务电话会议上，对DeepSeek点了赞。 他认为，DeepSeek不是威胁，反而能助力英伟达的芯片大卖。 他的理由是，过去几年对人工智能计算的需求仍然"才刚刚开始"，尽管最近开发了新的低成本人工 智能，但需求仍将继续增长。 全年营收翻倍，盈利增幅放缓 当地时间2月26日美股盘后，英伟达公布了2025财年第四财季和2025财年的财务业绩。 财报显示，英伟达在2025财年第四财季实现营收393.31亿美元，较去年同期增长78%，净利润为 220.66亿美元，同比上升72%。 | | | GAAP | | | | | --- | --- | -- ...

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang expressed excitement about the potential demand for AI inference, which is expected to far exceed current large language models (LLMs), potentially requiring millions of times more computing power [1][5]. Group 1: AI Inference and Demand - The demand for inference will significantly increase, especially for long-thought inference AI models, which may require several orders of magnitude more computing power than pre-training [5]. - Nvidia's Blackwell architecture is designed for inference AI, improving inference performance by 25 times compared to Hopper while reducing costs by 20 times [6][34]. - The DeepSeek-R1 inference model has generated global enthusiasm and is an outstanding innovation, being open-sourced as a world-class inference AI model [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Projections - Nvidia reported record revenue of $39.3 billion for the fourth quarter, a 12% quarter-over-quarter increase and a 78% year-over-year increase, exceeding expectations [32]. - The data center revenue for fiscal year 2025 is projected to be $115.2 billion, doubling from the previous fiscal year [32]. - Nvidia's CFO Colette Kress expects profit margins to improve once Blackwell production increases, with margins projected to be in the mid-70% range by the end of 2025 [2][11]. Group 3: Product Development and Supply Chain - The supply chain issues related to the Blackwell series chips have been fully resolved, allowing for the next training and subsequent product development to proceed without hindrance [1]. - Blackwell Ultra is planned for release in the second half of 2025, featuring improvements in networking, memory, and processors [16][60]. - Nvidia's production involves 350 factories and 1.5 million components, achieving $11 billion in revenue last quarter [8][53]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Growth Areas - The global demand for AI technology remains strong, with the Chinese market's revenue remaining stable [20][68]. - Emerging fields such as enterprise AI, agent AI, and physical AI are expected to drive long-term demand growth [14][24]. - Nvidia's full-stack AI solutions will support enterprises throughout the entire AI workflow, from pre-training to inference [25]. Group 5: Infrastructure and Future Outlook - The current AI infrastructure is still utilizing various Nvidia products, with a gradual update expected as AI technology evolves [26][27]. - Nvidia's CUDA platform ensures compatibility across different generations of GPUs, facilitating a flexible update process [28]. - The company anticipates significant growth in data center and gaming businesses in the first quarter, driven by strong demand for Blackwell [44].