以下文章来源于格隆汇APP ，作者城北徐公 格隆汇APP . 中国领先的全球投资研究平台。全球视野，下注中国。让普通的投资者能够享受到专业的研究服务，让每一个个体的投资之路不再孤单和艰难。 来源丨格隆汇（ ID：hkguruclub） 作者丨城北徐公 图源丨Midjourney 现在全球市场讨论最多的话题，就两个： 1. 美联储 12 月份到底将不降息； 2.AI 到底有没有、有多大泡沫？ 前者的分歧越来越大，预期概率一变再变；后者， Peter Thiel 和软银旗下基金都选择在高位减持甚至清仓英伟达，恐慌情绪不断蔓延，投资者也开始纷纷 抛售 AI 股。 此时此刻，作为全世界的希望，英伟达再一次站了出来。 11 月 19 日盘后，英伟达扔出堪称离谱 Q3 财报：总营收达到创纪录的 570.06 亿美元，不仅同比暴涨 62% ，还远超市场预期的 549.2 亿。 净利润飙到 319.1 亿美元，同比涨 65% ，折算下来每天净赚 3.5 亿；每股收益为 1.30 美元，同样超过预期的 1.26 美元。 更重要的是接下来的预期， Q4 营收预计将达到 650 亿美元，上下浮动 2% ，依然远远超过分析师平均预期 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the contrasting perspectives on the AI sector, particularly focusing on Nvidia's recent Q3 earnings report, which shows strong financial performance despite concerns about potential bubbles in the AI market [1][2][4][30]. Financial Performance - Nvidia reported a record total revenue of $57.006 billion for Q3, a year-on-year increase of 62%, significantly surpassing market expectations of $54.92 billion [4]. - The net profit reached $31.91 billion, up 65% year-on-year, translating to a daily profit of $350 million [4]. - For Q4, Nvidia expects revenue to reach $65 billion, exceeding analyst expectations of $61.66 billion [5]. Business Segments - The data center business, contributing 89.5% of total revenue, generated $43 billion, primarily driven by the performance of the Blackwell series chips [20]. - The gaming and AI PC segment achieved $4.3 billion in revenue, with a 30% year-on-year growth, supported by strong sales of the RTX 50 series graphics cards [23]. - The professional visualization segment saw a revenue increase of 62% year-on-year, driven by demand in design tools and medical imaging [25]. - The automotive and robotics segment, while only 1% of total revenue, showed significant growth potential, with a 55% increase in shipments of the DRIVE AGX Orin chips [27]. Market Dynamics - Nvidia's CEO, Jensen Huang, emphasized the exponential growth in demand for GPUs, stating that every GPU is being utilized, indicating a healthy cycle for AI [7]. - Despite concerns raised by a controversial article alleging financial discrepancies within Nvidia's reporting, the company’s actual data appears robust upon closer examination [10][14][18]. - The article highlights the interconnected nature of funding within the AI sector, suggesting potential risks if the funding cycle were to break [12]. Future Outlook - Nvidia has committed to a revenue target of $500 billion, with clear visibility into data center revenue for the next two years [32]. - Key growth drivers include the anticipated shift from training to inference demand, the emergence of embodied AI, and the ongoing expansion of sovereign and enterprise AI projects [32]. - The success of the upcoming Rubin platform is seen as critical for sustaining growth, with expectations for advanced technology and increased production capacity [34]. Conclusion - Nvidia's Q3 results indicate a strong foundation for continued growth in the AI sector, despite the presence of speculative bubbles [30][31]. - The ongoing transformation of data centers into "AI factories" is expected to drive demand for several years, marking a significant shift in the industry [35].

Core Viewpoint - The recent earnings report from NVIDIA has temporarily alleviated concerns about a potential AI bubble, showcasing strong financial performance while also revealing some underlying risk signals [1][2]. Financial Performance - For Q3 of FY2026 (ending October 26, 2025), NVIDIA reported a revenue increase of 62.5% year-over-year and a net profit growth of 65%, with data center revenue surpassing $50 billion for the first time [2]. - NVIDIA's guidance for the next quarter anticipates total revenue of $65 billion, exceeding analyst expectations of $61.7 billion, and does not include revenue from data centers in China [3]. Demand and Inventory Concerns - Despite strong earnings, NVIDIA's accounts receivable have been rising, reaching $33.391 billion in Q3, with 65% coming from four major clients [4][5]. - Inventory levels have also increased to $19.784 billion, with days inventory outstanding (DIO) rising to 117.5 days, significantly higher than the average of the past five years [4]. Customer Concentration Risks - NVIDIA's revenue is heavily reliant on a few major clients, with four direct customers contributing 61% of total revenue, up from 56% in the previous quarter [5][6]. - This high customer concentration poses risks to revenue stability if these clients alter their capital expenditure plans [6]. Market Sentiment and Analyst Opinions - Analysts have mixed views, with some maintaining bullish ratings on NVIDIA, citing strong AI demand and growth potential for cloud service providers [7]. - Conversely, notable investors like Peter Thiel and Bridgewater Associates have significantly reduced their holdings in NVIDIA, indicating caution regarding its high valuation and associated risks [8]. Broader AI Market Context - The AI sector is experiencing both excitement and skepticism, with discussions around potential bubbles and the long-term impacts of AI on various industries [8]. - Experts suggest that while there may be short-term speculative bubbles, the transformative potential of AI should not be underestimated [8].

Core Viewpoint - The recent earnings report from Nvidia has temporarily alleviated concerns about a potential AI bubble, showcasing strong financial performance while also revealing some underlying risks [1][3]. Financial Performance - For the third quarter of fiscal year 2026 (ending October 26, 2025), Nvidia reported a revenue increase of 62.5% year-over-year, with net profit rising by 65% [3]. - The data center business achieved a quarterly revenue exceeding $50 billion for the first time [3]. - Nvidia's guidance for the next quarter anticipates total revenue of $65 billion, surpassing analyst expectations of $61.7 billion [4]. Demand Signals - Nvidia's Blackwell series chips are in high demand, and cloud GPUs are sold out, addressing market concerns about peak AI demand [3]. - However, Nvidia's accounts receivable have been rising, reaching $33.391 billion in the third quarter, with 65% coming from four major clients [5]. - Inventory levels have also increased to $19.784 billion, with inventory turnover days rising to 117.5 days, significantly higher than the average of the past five years [6]. Customer Concentration Risks - Nvidia's revenue is heavily reliant on a few major clients, with four direct customers contributing 61% of total revenue, up from 56% in the previous quarter [6][7]. - This high customer concentration poses risks to revenue stability if these clients alter their capital expenditure plans [7]. Market Sentiment - Analysts maintain a positive outlook on Nvidia, with firms like Morgan Stanley and UBS reiterating buy ratings and optimistic revenue forecasts [8]. - Conversely, notable investors like Peter Thiel and Bridgewater Associates have significantly reduced their holdings in Nvidia, indicating caution regarding its high valuation [9].

"关于AI泡沫有很多讨论。从我们的角度来看，截然不同。"美东时间周三盘后，英伟达公布超出预期的 三季度财报，电话会上，黄仁勋驳斥了"AI泡沫论"，他认为目前并不存在大家担心的泡沫。 过去几周，AI叙事支撑下的美国科技股因对泡沫的担忧而持续低迷，多空双方展开了殊死搏斗，其中 不乏美国资本市场传奇人物和老牌机构，大家争论的核心是，这轮由AI带来的估值提升，是否存在泡 沫，以及泡沫是否将见顶。 所有人的目光都集中在英伟达身上。这家为AI时代提供基础设施的科技巨头，在10月底成为人类历史 上第一家5万亿美元市值的公司，比三年前翻了11倍。就像观察工业增长情况要看发电量和铁路货运 量，英伟达的业绩也成了所有人观察AI需求是否持续增长的最佳窗口，如果英伟达财报不及预期，科 技巨头们购买算力芯片的速度放缓，那就意味着这轮AI行情已经到头了。 毫无疑问，那将是一场灭顶之灾。今年以来，无数人押注AI叙事，从纽约到香港，从纳斯达克到A股市 场，全球都在享受AI带来的估值狂飙。红利从英伟达这个源头扩散到上游的电力、铜矿和大宗商品， 再到下游游戏、广告等无数行业的降本增效，也支撑着机器人、自动驾驶等多个万亿行业的想象空间， 给全世界 ...

分析师预计，这家芯片巨头2025财年第三季度的净利润和营收增幅都将超过50%。原因相当明确：数据 显示，微软、亚马逊、Alphabet和Meta Platforms这四家企业合计占英伟达销售额的40%以上，它们未来 12个月的AI支出预计将增长34%，达到4400亿美元。 风险在于，若大型AI支出方(尤其是未上市的OpenAI)不得不缩减投入承诺，这些数据可能会失去参考价 值。 "AI领域的这些参与者刻意不断抬高市场预期，如今他们不仅要实现业绩目标，还得持续满足市场日益 高涨的期待，"琼斯交易公司首席市场策略师迈克尔·奥罗克说，"对上市公司而言，这是一场危险的游 戏。" 万众瞩目的英伟达(NVDA.US)财报将于美股周三盘后发布，届时华尔街将得以一窥数十亿美元AI支出 的流向，但低迷的股市会作何反应仍是个未知数。 "这份财报堪称'英伟达定调，市场跟风'，"景顺财富管理公司首席投资官斯科特·马丁表示。该公司持有 英伟达及其多家大型科技同行的股份。 就财报本身而言，投资者将重点关注其 Blackwell系列芯片的强劲表现——该系列预计将推动公司下一 阶段的增长。利润率扩张也至关重要，尤其是数据中心业务，该部门在第 ...

Core Viewpoint - SoftBank's decision to sell all its shares in NVIDIA, amounting to $5.8 billion, has raised questions about its investment strategy, especially given the current AI boom and NVIDIA's record-high stock price [1][3][5] Group 1: Investment Decision - SoftBank completely liquidated its 32.1 million shares of NVIDIA in October, cashing out $5.8 billion, which was then redirected towards investments in OpenAI and a super data center project [1][3] - The management clarified that the sale was not due to a lack of confidence in NVIDIA's fundamentals but rather a necessity for capital allocation to support large-scale projects [3][5] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The AI industry is experiencing a dichotomy, with hardware manufacturers like NVIDIA thriving while platforms like OpenAI are rapidly increasing in valuation [5][7] - The hardware market, despite its current profitability, is expected to reach a ceiling, while platforms that control AI models can create a more sustainable ecosystem [7][9] Group 3: Strategic Shift - The sale of NVIDIA shares is viewed as a strategic repositioning from hardware investments to platform investments, reflecting a shift in SoftBank's long-term vision [7][13] - SoftBank's previous experience with NVIDIA, where it sold shares too early, has influenced its current approach, emphasizing the importance of owning core assets in the AI space [9][13] Group 4: Future Outlook - SoftBank aims to become a partner in the general intelligence era rather than just a shareholder in a hardware supplier, recognizing the growing importance of platforms like OpenAI [13][15] - The collaboration on the Stargate data center project is seen as a critical move to establish a comprehensive ecosystem that integrates chips, models, and infrastructure [15][17] Group 5: Competitive Advantage - SoftBank's strategy is to build a robust infrastructure for AI applications, which is perceived as having more long-term potential than merely holding stock in a chip manufacturer [17][19] - The company believes that controlling the AI infrastructure will provide a competitive edge, akin to building an electric grid rather than just selling generators [17][19]

Core Insights - AMD's CEO, Lisa Su, presented optimistic projections for the AI market, forecasting a total addressable market (TAM) for AI data centers to exceed $1 trillion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 40% from approximately $200 billion this year [1] - AMD aims to capture a "double-digit" market share in the data center AI chip market, with projected annual revenue from data center chips reaching $100 billion within five years and profits expected to more than double by 2030 [1][2] Group 1: Market Outlook and Financial Projections - AMD anticipates a 35% annual growth across its entire business over the next three to five years, with data center business growth projected at 60% [2] - The company expects earnings per share (EPS) to rise to $20 within the same timeframe [2] - The data center business is identified as the core driver for AMD's future market goals, with a historical revenue high of $4.3 billion in Q3, a 22% year-over-year increase [3] Group 2: Product Development and Competitive Landscape - AMD's AI chip product line, while starting later than NVIDIA's, is gaining traction, with the MI350 series being described as the fastest-growing product in the company's history [4] - AMD plans to achieve over 50% market share in server CPU revenue, with the next-generation EPYC processor, codenamed "Venice," aimed at enhancing AI and general computing performance [4] - Despite facing significant competition from NVIDIA, AMD is positioned as a cost-effective alternative as global enterprises invest heavily in AI infrastructure [5] Group 3: Strategic Partnerships and Collaborations - AMD has secured major partnerships, including a strategic collaboration with OpenAI to deploy 6GW of AMD GPU chips for AI infrastructure [5][6] - Additional collaborations include a partnership with Oracle to deploy 50,000 units of the latest AI chip MI450 by Q3 2026 and a $1 billion project with the U.S. Department of Energy for new supercomputers [6] - Competitors like Google and Amazon are also developing their own AI chips, indicating a highly competitive environment in the AI data center chip market [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strong demand for AI-related products and the critical role of TSMC in ensuring chip supply for NVIDIA, emphasizing the deepening relationship between the two companies amid a competitive landscape in the semiconductor industry [1][2][3][4]. Group 1: NVIDIA's Demand and Supply Chain Dynamics - NVIDIA's CEO Jensen Huang visited Taiwan to request increased chip supply from TSMC, indicating the company's robust business performance and the growing demand for its products [2][3]. - Huang's statement, "Without TSMC, there is no NVIDIA," underscores the essential role TSMC plays in NVIDIA's success, particularly in the production of the Blackwell series chips [4][9]. - The demand for NVIDIA's products, including the Blackwell series and rack-level configurations, is immense, with supply capacity being a critical bottleneck [5]. Group 2: TSMC's Manufacturing Capacity - TSMC's advanced manufacturing capabilities are in high demand globally, with CEO C.C. Wei confirming that the company's capacity remains "very tight" [6]. - NVIDIA aims to become a major customer for TSMC's 3nm process, potentially accounting for about 30% of TSMC's total output, amidst competition from rivals like Qualcomm [7][8]. Group 3: Future Revenue Projections - At the GTC conference, Huang projected that NVIDIA could achieve a cumulative revenue of $500 billion from its data center business between 2025 and 2026, significantly exceeding previous market expectations [13][14]. - This revenue visibility is seen as a positive factor for NVIDIA's stock price, with analysts noting that the target surpasses consensus estimates by 12% and Goldman Sachs' own forecast by 10% [14][15].

Core Insights - The CEO of Nvidia, Jensen Huang, is actively seeking increased chip supply from TSMC to meet the strong demand driven by the AI boom, highlighting TSMC's critical role in the AI supply chain [1][2] - Huang's visit to Taiwan and his request for more wafer supply from TSMC indicate Nvidia's confidence in the future demand for AI products [1][2] - Nvidia's growth is closely tied to TSMC's production capacity, with Huang stating, "Without TSMC, there is no Nvidia" [1][3] Supply Chain Challenges - Nvidia's primary goal during Huang's visit to Taiwan was to secure more wafers for its Blackwell series chips, as demand for Nvidia's products is currently immense [2] - TSMC's advanced manufacturing capabilities are in high demand globally, with CEO C.C. Wei noting that the company's capacity remains "very tight" [2] - Nvidia aims to become a major customer for TSMC's 3nm process, potentially accounting for about 30% of TSMC's total output [2] Strategic Dependency - Huang's statement about the dependency on TSMC reflects the evolution of Nvidia's strategy, as the company is now competing for the latest chip technologies [3] - This marks Huang's fourth visit to Taiwan this year, indicating a deepening relationship between Nvidia and TSMC [3] - Strengthening ties with TSMC is crucial for Nvidia to maintain its market dominance amid fierce competition in the AI sector [3]