Market Overview - The S&P 500 is attempting its first three-session win streak since late January, with markets solidly higher [1] - Sector rotation is a significant theme, with investments increasing in energy, technology, consumer discretionary, materials, and financials, while real estate, utilities, and consumer staples are being sold off [1] Economic Indicators - New orders for manufactured durable goods, excluding transportation, increased by 0.9% in December, surpassing estimates of a 0.3% increase [1] - January industrial production rose by 0.7% month over month, exceeding forecasts of a 0.4% increase [1] Company Developments - Alphabet announced the launch of Lyria 3, a generative music model available in its Gemini app, allowing users to create custom 30-second tracks [1] - The introduction of Lyria 3 is expected to enhance the quality of soundtracks for YouTube Shorts, potentially increasing creator engagement on the platform compared to competitors like TikTok and Instagram Reels [1] Upcoming Earnings Reports - Companies reporting quarterly earnings after the market close include DoorDash, Carvana, Occidental Petroleum, Figma, Blue Owl Capital, and Molson Coors Beverage [1] - Before the market opens on Thursday, Walmart, Quanta Services, Deere, and Wayfair are scheduled to report their results [1]

美股昨晚遭遇显著抛售，三大指数全线下挫，其中，纳指跌逾 2%。市场核心逻 辑出现重大转折，投资者焦点从单纯追逐「AI 红利」急剧转向担忧「AI 反噬」， 叠加思科业绩指引不佳及苹果面临监管压力，科技股领跌，避险情绪急速升温。 近期市场对 AI 颠覆传统产业的焦虑感显著升级，引发「AI 恐慌交易（AI Scare Trade）」，资金开始计价 AI 普及可能导致的利润压缩与结构性失业，冲击从软 件金融扩散至实体服务业。物流巨头 C.H. Robinson CHRW.US 暴跌 14%，市场 忧虑 AI 精准调度将大幅提升效率，导致依赖「信息差」与人力协调的中介佣 金归零；世邦魏理仕 CBRE.US 重挫 13.5%，创疫情以来最大跌幅，逻辑在于 AI 工具如 Claude Cowork 若大量替代法务、金融等白领岗位，将导致办公楼长期 需求萎缩，虽然数据中心需求强劲，仍难抵销投资者对传统租赁业务崩塌的恐 惧。 港股晨报 2026 年 2 月 13 日 国投证券（香港）有限公司 • 研究部 1. 国投证券国际视点：AI 叙事反转引发恐慌抛售，市场 静待美国 CPI 公布 昨日，港股三大指数走弱，恒生指数跌 0.8 ...

Group 1: Company Performance - Netflix has achieved a remarkable 2,580% increase in share price over the past 15 years as of January 30 [1] - In the second half of 2025, Netflix reported a 2% year-over-year increase in view hours [5] - Netflix households spend an average of two hours per day on the platform, significantly more than the half-hour spent daily on Instagram [6] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Meta Platforms is outperforming Netflix in engagement growth, dominating the attention economy as consumer behavior shifts towards mobile devices [3][7] - Instagram Reels experienced over 30% year-over-year growth in watch time in the U.S. [4] - While Netflix's share of TV viewing time in the U.S. increased by 20% over the past three years, the overall streaming market (excluding Netflix) saw a 92% increase in penetration rate [8]

2026 年 02 月 03 日 Meta（META.O）：AI 赋能驱动营收新高，战略聚 焦拓展增长新空间 推荐(维持) 事件 分析师：任春阳 S1050521110006 rency@cfsc.com.cn 分析师：谢孟津 S1050525120001 xiemj@cfsc.com.cn 行业相对表现 | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 计算机(申万) | 4.1 | -2.6 | 25.8 | | 沪深 300 | -0.5 | -1.0 | 20.7 | 市场表现 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 (%) 计算机 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 Meta 于 2026 年 1 月 28 日发布第四季度财报。公司当季实现营收 598.93 亿美元，同比增长 23.8%，环比增长 16.9%。营业利润为 247.45 亿美元， 同比增长 6.0%，运营利润率同比下降 7 个百分点至 41%。 投资要点 ▌营收与盈利表现：广告业务核心驱动，季度营收 再创新高 营收端：第四季度实现营收 598.93 亿美元，同 ...

市场表现 2026 年 02 月 03 日 Meta（META.O）：AI 赋能驱动营收新高，战略聚 焦拓展增长新空间 推荐(维持) 事件 分析师：任春阳 S1050521110006 rency@cfsc.com.cn 分析师：谢孟津 S1050525120001 xiemj@cfsc.com.cn 行业相对表现 | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 计算机(申万) | 4.1 | -2.6 | 25.8 | | 沪深 300 | -0.5 | -1.0 | 20.7 | -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 (%) 计算机 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《Tesla（TSLA.O）：短期业绩 承压不改长期转型本色，能源与 AI 业务构筑第二增长曲线》2026-01- 31 Meta 于 2026 年 1 月 28 日发布第四季度财报。公司当季实现营收 598.93 亿美元，同比增长 23.8%，环比增长 16.9%。营业利润为 247.45 亿美元， 同比增长 6.0%，运营利润率同比下降 7 个百分点至 ...

Core Insights - Meta Platforms is exploring growth opportunities through hardware, specifically AI glasses, but the Reality Labs segment is financially burdensome, reporting an operating loss of over $6 billion in Q4 and cumulative losses exceeding $80 billion since 2020 [1][7]. Digital Advertising and Revenue Growth - Meta's digital ad business, which constitutes nearly all of its revenue, is performing well, with expectations to further monetize Threads and WhatsApp, including expanding ads on Threads and introducing paid messaging in WhatsApp, which is currently generating an annual revenue run rate of over $2 billion [3]. Instagram Reels and Engagement - Instagram Reels is gaining traction, with total watch time increasing by 30% year-over-year in the U.S. in Q4, and the company plans to enhance engagement through additional language support for video dubbing [2]. Financial Projections and Expenses - For 2026, Meta anticipates total expenses between $162 billion and $169 billion, a 42% increase from the previous year, with capital expenditures expected to rise significantly to between $115 billion and $135 billion [8][9]. Stock Performance and Analyst Outlook - Following positive Q4 earnings, several analysts have raised their price targets for META stock, with Bank of America increasing its target from $810 to $885 and Jefferies projecting a rise to $1,000 [11][12]. Profitability Challenges - Despite revenue growth of over 20% in the past two years, Meta's profitability remains under pressure, with 2026 per-share earnings expected to be similar to 2025 [13]. Future Expectations - The forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple for META stock is 24, which is considered reasonable given the company's growth potential, with expectations for improved profitability in 2027 as Reality Labs losses are projected to narrow [14].

Summary of Meta Platforms Inc. Earnings Call Company Overview - **Company**: Meta Platforms Inc - **Industry**: Internet - Large Cap / Mid & Small Cap Key Points and Arguments Revenue Growth and Financial Guidance - Meta aims for 2026 revenue growth in the 20% range, with 1Q26 revenue growth projected to be in the 30% range, indicating strong momentum [1][9] - Total expenses for 2026 are expected to be between $162 billion and $169 billion, which is higher than previous expectations [1][14] - Capital expenditures (capex) for 2026 are projected to be between $115 billion and $135 billion, also above prior estimates [1][14] AI and Advertising Improvements - Significant AI-driven ad improvements are expected to enhance engagement and monetization, with Instagram Reels watch time up over 30% year-over-year in the US [2][14] - Meta is seeing a 7% lift in organic feed and video posts on Facebook, contributing to the largest quarterly revenue impact from product launches in the past two years [2][14] - AI productivity improvements have led to a 30% increase in output per engineer, with power users of AI coding tools seeing an 80% year-over-year increase in output [14] Operating Income and EPS - Meta has established bottom-line guardrails with operating income growth projected for 2026, while Reality Labs operating losses are expected to remain similar to the previous year [1][9] - GAAP EPS for 2026 is projected to be $31.51, with a decrease of 3-4% in EPS estimates for 2026/2027 due to the removal of share repurchases [1][9] Frontier Model Development - Expectations for a frontier large language model (LLM) have been tempered, with emphasis on developing initial models that will be "good" rather than frontier-level in the first half of 2026 [1][9] - The timing for a frontier model may be pushed out, but the industry is rapidly innovating, with anticipation for new models in the coming months [1][9] Market Reaction and Valuation - Meta shares rose 7% in after-market trading following the earnings report, although some pushback is expected [1][9] - The price target for December 2026 has been raised from $800 to $825, based on a valuation of approximately 26 times the estimated GAAP EPS for 2027 [1][9] Financial Estimates - **2026 Revenue**: $252.26 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 25.5% [4][19] - **2027 Revenue**: $294.27 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 16.7% [4][19] - **Adjusted EBITDA for 2026**: $142.24 billion, with a margin of 56.4% [4][19] - **Free Cash Flow (FCF)**: Projected to be modestly positive at $5 billion for 2026 [1][9] Other Notable Insights - Meta's focus on AI and the Metaverse is expected to drive significant infrastructure investments, but the company has a strong track record of generating returns on increased spending [9] - The company is expected to self-finance its infrastructure investments in 2026 while also considering cost-efficient external financing [14] Conclusion Meta Platforms Inc. is positioned for strong revenue growth driven by AI advancements and advertising improvements, despite rising expenses and tempered expectations for frontier model development. The company maintains a positive outlook for 2026 and beyond, supported by a robust valuation and strategic investments in technology.

Group 1 - Meta reported Q4 2025 revenue of $59.893 billion, a 24% year-over-year increase, and net profit of $22.768 billion, up 9% [1] - For the full year 2025, Meta's revenue reached $200.966 billion, a 22% increase, while net profit slightly decreased by 3% to $60.458 billion [1] - The strong performance in Q4 was driven by advertising revenue, which amounted to $58.137 billion, also a 24% increase, making up nearly 97% of total revenue [1] Group 2 - Meta expects Q1 2026 revenue to be between $53.5 billion and $56.5 billion, exceeding market expectations [2] - The company plans total expenses for 2026 to be between $162 billion and $169 billion, with capital expenditures projected to reach $115 billion to $135 billion, nearly double the 2025 capital expenditure of $72.2 billion [2] - CEO Mark Zuckerberg indicated that Meta will release new AI models in the coming months and will integrate large language models with advertising systems [2] Group 3 - Meta's Reality Labs department reported Q4 revenue of $0.955 billion with an operating loss of $6.021 billion [3] - The company anticipates that losses in the Reality Labs department will remain stable in 2026, with 2026 expected to be a peak year for losses before gradually narrowing [3] - In early January, Meta laid off over 1,000 employees in the VR-related projects within Reality Labs, reallocating resources towards AI and wearable devices [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights significant growth in AI-related business and user engagement across various companies, indicating a strong market demand for AI solutions [1][2][3][4]. Group 2 - Company A announced a successful bid for AI-related projects amounting to 2.316 billion yuan, surpassing the combined total of the second to sixth competitors [1]. - Company B projects its AI-related business revenue to reach between 600 million to 620 million yuan by 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 1057% to 1095% compared to 51.87 million yuan in 2024 [1]. - Microsoft reported a historical high in new user seats for Microsoft 365 Copilot, with a year-on-year growth exceeding 160%, and a 77% quarter-on-quarter increase in Copilot Pro+ subscriptions [1]. - Microsoft Cloud's commercial order volume grew by 230% and 228% respectively, with remaining performance obligations increasing to $625 billion, a year-on-year increase of 110% [2]. - Meta's advertising display counts increased by 18% year-on-year, driven by user engagement and scale growth, with average ad prices rising by 6% due to increased advertiser demand [2]. - Meta's "other revenue" from its app family reached $801 million, a 54% year-on-year increase, primarily driven by WhatsApp paid messaging and Meta Verified subscription services [2]. - Instagram Reels saw over 30% year-on-year growth in viewing time in the U.S., attributed to improvements in recommendation quality and user engagement [2]. - Nearly 10% of Reels viewed daily are created using Meta's Edits app, with a threefold increase compared to the previous quarter [3]. - Meta AI's daily active users generating media content tripled year-on-year, with a 30% productivity increase observed among engineers since early 2025, largely due to the adoption of generative coding tools [3]. - A new runtime model deployed in Instagram's feed, stories, and Reels improved conversion rates by 3%, with video generation tools achieving an annualized revenue run rate of $10 billion, growing nearly three times faster than overall ad revenue [4].

Core Insights - The deal to keep TikTok operational in the US has been finalized, with new ownership primarily by Oracle, Silverlake, and Abu Dhabi-based MGX, while ByteDance retains a 19% stake [2] Group 1: Ownership and Operations - TikTok's algorithm is being retrained on US data under the new ownership structure, which may impact user experience and advertising returns [2][3] - The app's 200 million US users will not need to download a new version, indicating continuity in user access [2] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Uncertainty regarding TikTok's future has previously benefited competitors like Meta, Snap, YouTube, and Pinterest, as brands may delay advertising investments until TikTok's ROI becomes clearer [3] - A significant risk for TikTok is the rising popularity of Instagram's Reels, with average user time on TikTok decreasing from 1 hour to 52 minutes, while Instagram's user time has increased from 33 minutes to 36 minutes [4] Group 3: E-commerce Potential - TikTok is expected to aggressively expand its e-commerce segment, potentially challenging established players like Shein and Sephora [5] - E-marketer forecasts that TikTok Shop will achieve over $20 billion in US sales this year, with projections of growth to $37 billion by 2029 [5]