Core Viewpoint - Pop Mart is experiencing rapid expansion and significant growth in performance, driven by increased global recognition of its IP and a diverse product range that has gained traction in overseas markets [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Pop Mart's revenue is expected to grow by no less than 200%, corresponding to at least 136.7 billion RMB, while net profit is projected to increase by no less than 350%, reaching at least 43.4 billion RMB [4]. - The company's global GMV for the first half of 2025 totaled 14.4 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 216%, with overseas revenue contributing 4.546 billion RMB, up 236% [2]. - Investment banks like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan have raised their profit forecasts for Pop Mart, with Goldman Sachs adjusting its 2025 net profit estimate by 15%-22% [3]. Group 2: Market Expansion - Pop Mart's overseas store count has surpassed 150, with overseas revenue growth of 475%-480% year-on-year in Q1 2025, indicating a strong international presence [1]. - The company is set to launch new products and collaborations, including a partnership with Uniqlo for Labubu-themed T-shirts and the introduction of an animated series to enhance IP recognition [8]. Group 3: Valuation and Market Position - Despite strong performance, Pop Mart's high valuation requires time for growth to justify its market price, with current estimates suggesting a 33x PE ratio for 2026, comparable to peers like Sanrio [3][5]. - The company's cash flow investment return (CFROI) for 2024 is projected at 24%, with a profit margin of 42%, significantly higher than the industry average of 20% [5].

Core Insights - The article discusses the phenomenon of the LABUBU blind box craze, highlighting the intense demand and the various motivations behind consumer purchases [3][4][5] - It emphasizes the significant revenue growth of Pop Mart, projecting revenues of 13 billion yuan in 2024 and a 1.6 times increase in Q1 2025 compared to the previous year [3][4] - The article also explores the complexities of consumer behavior, revealing that motivations range from genuine affection for the product to social status and investment potential [4][10] Group 1: Consumer Behavior - Consumers exhibit diverse motivations for purchasing LABUBU, including genuine interest, social comparison, and speculative investment [4][5][10] - The article describes a segment of buyers who are deeply engaged in the blind box culture, employing strategies to identify rare items, while others simply buy for social status [6][7] - The popularity of LABUBU is linked to social media exposure, with notable figures contributing to its viral status [3][4] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Pop Mart has established a dual-channel sales strategy, combining online and offline sales, which enhances consumer engagement and drives demand [7][8] - The article notes that the market for LABUBU has seen fluctuations, with prices for certain items dropping significantly as supply increases and interest wanes [15][16] - The phenomenon of "黄牛" (scalpers) is prevalent, with individuals attempting to resell blind boxes at a markup, although competition and market saturation are challenges [2][7][15] Group 3: Financial Performance - Pop Mart's revenue projections indicate a robust growth trajectory, with a forecast of 13 billion yuan in 2024 and nearly fivefold growth in overseas market revenue [3][4] - The article highlights the speculative nature of the LABUBU market, with some buyers viewing it as an investment opportunity despite the inherent risks [10][12] - The narrative suggests that the hype surrounding LABUBU may not be sustainable, as evidenced by recent price declines and market corrections [15][16]

Group 1 - LABUBU has gained immense popularity globally, with celebrities like David Beckham and Rihanna showcasing their purchases on social media, leading to a buying frenzy both online and offline [1] - In South Korea, the offline sales of LABUBU plush dolls and keychains have been temporarily suspended due to safety concerns arising from chaotic scenes at sales locations, including overnight queues and altercations [2][4] - The demand for LABUBU has led to incidents of violence in London, particularly at the Stratford Westfield shopping center, highlighting the extreme consumer interest [6][7] Group 2 - LABUBU, part of the THE MONSTERS series, initially struggled to gain traction after its inception ten years ago, with revenues of 263 million yuan in 2022 and 368 million yuan in 2023, but saw a dramatic increase in 2024, surpassing 3 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 726.6% [17] - The recent surge in popularity began with the launch of the LABUBU 3.0 series in April 2024, which quickly became a phenomenon, leading to long queues in stores and rapid sellouts online [17][18] - Prices for LABUBU products have skyrocketed, with blind box prices increasing from 99 yuan to 349 yuan, and rare collaborations seeing prices soar to 27,999 yuan, indicating a significant market demand and speculation [18] Group 3 - The market response has positively impacted the company's stock price, with its market capitalization recently exceeding 360 billion HKD, elevating its founder Wang Ning to the status of the richest person in Henan according to Forbes [18] - Despite the stock price fluctuations, the company remains focused on long-term operations rather than short-term market perceptions, as stated by its founder [21]

Group 1 - LABUBU has transformed from an underperforming IP to a trending fashion item, gaining significant popularity both domestically and internationally, especially after collaborations and social media exposure [1][3][6] - The recent LABUBU 3.0 series has seen severe shortages in official channels, with second-hand market prices soaring, indicating high demand and consumer interest [3][6] - LABUBU's rise has positively impacted the stock price of Pop Mart and expanded its recognition in overseas markets, showcasing the power of successful IP in driving business growth [6][41] Group 2 - The phenomenon of "counterfeit LABUBU" has emerged, with demand for these products exceeding supply, highlighting the brand's popularity and the challenges of pricing in the market [7][20][21] - The trend of customizing LABUBU dolls has gained traction among consumers, allowing them to express individuality and creativity, further enhancing brand loyalty [22][24][26] - The surge in demand for LABUBU-related products, including custom outfits and accessories, has revitalized small businesses and created new economic opportunities, indicating a thriving derivative economy [30][33][41]

Core Viewpoint - The recent large-scale share reduction by a major shareholder of Pop Mart has raised concerns, but it is primarily attributed to the natural reduction due to the expiration of a fund rather than issues with the company's fundamentals [1][3][4]. Group 1: Shareholder Actions - A major shareholder has sold approximately 11.91 million shares of Pop Mart, accounting for about 0.9% of the total share capital, involving funds of around HKD 2.2 billion [1]. - The reduction was executed by Fengqiao Capital, which stated that the shares sold were acquired before Pop Mart's IPO, and the fund is now fully divested from the company [3][4]. - Following the announcement, Pop Mart's stock price fell by 5.43% on May 7, closing at HKD 184.5 [3]. Group 2: Company Performance - Since its listing on December 11, 2020, Pop Mart's stock price has increased significantly, with a maximum cumulative increase of over 10 times [6]. - In 2024, Pop Mart reported revenue of CNY 13.04 billion, a year-on-year increase of 106.9%, and an adjusted net profit of CNY 3.4 billion, up 185.9% [6]. - The company has seen a cumulative stock price increase of 349.60% in 2024, with continued upward momentum into the current year [6]. Group 3: Market Expansion - Pop Mart's overseas market has shown explosive growth, with revenue from international markets increasing by 475% to 480% in the first quarter of 2025 [7]. - The company achieved a revenue of CNY 5.07 billion from overseas and Hong Kong-Macau-Taiwan markets in 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 375.2% [7]. - In the first quarter of 2025, revenue from the Americas surged by 895% to 900%, while Europe and Asia-Pacific regions also experienced significant growth [7].

Core Viewpoint - The recent large-scale share sell-off by major shareholders of Pop Mart has raised concerns, while the company continues to show strong growth in overseas markets and significant revenue increases from its products [2][4][5]. Group 1: Shareholder Activity - Major shareholders have sold approximately 11.91 million shares of Pop Mart, accounting for about 0.9% of the total share capital, involving funds of around HKD 2.2 billion [2]. - Fengqiao Capital has completely liquidated its holdings in Pop Mart through block trades, with the fund's cost basis for shares being around HKD 17-20, while the selling price ranged from HKD 187.99 to HKD 192.95, resulting in over 8 times profit [4]. Group 2: Company Performance - Since its IPO on December 11, 2020, Pop Mart's stock price has increased significantly, with a maximum cumulative increase of over 10 times [4]. - In 2024, Pop Mart achieved revenue of CNY 13.04 billion, a year-on-year increase of 106.9%, with overseas and Hong Kong-Macau business revenue reaching CNY 5.07 billion, a growth of 375.2% [5]. - In Q1 of this year, Pop Mart's overseas business revenue grew by 475%-480%, with the Americas market seeing a staggering growth of 895%-900% [5]. Group 3: Market Trends and Insights - The rise of Pop Mart's products, particularly the LABUBU series, has led to significant consumer demand, with long queues reported at stores in various countries [4]. - The company is seen as transforming from a new toy brand to a cultural phenomenon, appealing to overseas markets through unique cultural exports [5]. - Industry experts note that while the blind box products do not hold intrinsic value, their worth is derived from the associated IP and the rarity of hidden items, indicating potential for further development in IP storytelling and market presence [5].

Group 1 - The LABUBU3.0 series has officially launched offline sales, attracting long queues in domestic stores and a global buying frenzy, highlighting the rise of the emotional economy driven by stress-relief toys, pet consumption, and AI companionship [2] - The 2025 Consumer Awards by Nandu Bay Financial Society will focus on the emotional economy and emerging consumer forces, initiating a special research project to identify new value consumption trends across various sectors [2][9] - The government emphasizes the importance of boosting consumption and investment, aiming to enhance consumer capacity and improve consumption conditions as part of a broader strategy for high-quality economic development [3] Group 2 - Emotional release is becoming a significant factor influencing the decision-making of younger consumers, with a growing focus on self-fulfillment and the pursuit of meaningful consumption experiences [6] - The market is witnessing innovative practices that integrate emotional value with quality upgrades, such as green consumption initiatives and immersive cultural tourism experiences targeting younger demographics [6] - A series of industry seminars will be organized to discuss the pain points and hot topics related to emotional consumption, involving representatives from various sectors [10] Group 3 - The "Good Life Products" selection will focus on items that cater to consumers' emotional needs for stress relief, healing, and companionship, with recommendations to be published at the event [11] - A think tank report will be released to assess the current state of the emotional economy, consumer demands, and brand recognition in emotional consumption, based on survey data [12] - The "New Consumption Forces Ceremony" will take place in late June, featuring discussions on value consumption and the emotional economy, along with presentations from participating companies [13]

Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Consumption Index constituents, including Chow Tai Fook (01929), Techtronic Industries (00669), and Guoquan (02517), have shown positive performance with increases of 4.39%, 1.82%, and 1.57% respectively [1] - The Hang Seng Consumption ETF (513970) has risen by 0.33%, with a cumulative increase of over 10% in the last 17 trading days [1] - The trading volume for the Hang Seng Consumption ETF reached 36.298 million HKD with a turnover rate of 2.06% [1] Group 2: Fund Size and Inflows - The latest size of the Hang Seng Consumption ETF has reached a historical high of 1.744 billion HKD [1] - In the past week, the ETF's shares increased by 25 million, indicating significant growth [1] - Over the last five trading days, there were net inflows on three days, totaling 32.642 million HKD [1] Group 3: Company Performance - Pop Mart's recent financial report shows a strong performance with a revenue of 13.04 billion RMB for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 106.9%, and an adjusted net profit of 3.4 billion RMB, up 185.9% [2] - In Q1 2025, Pop Mart continued its high growth trend with overall revenue growth of 165% to 170%, and an explosive growth of 475% to 480% in overseas markets [2] Group 4: Consumer Trends - The new consumption trend is characterized by "new quality consumption," focusing on product upgrades based on insights into new consumer demands, enhancing brand value through quality, emotional value, and practical pain points [2] - The Hang Seng Consumption Index (HSCGSI) significantly differs from A-share consumption, excluding liquor and including both traditional and emerging consumption leaders like Pop Mart, Lao Pu Gold, Miniso, and others [2]

2025.04. 29 作者 | 第一财经 揭书宜 近日，随着旗下LABUBU3.0系列的发售，泡泡玛特在全球持续引起抢购热潮。在海外的许多国家和地 区，泡泡玛特线下门店出现了排队长龙，在美国洛杉矶，排队购买LABUBU的队伍被消费者称"找不到 队头也看不到队尾"；在英国伦敦，牛津街门店的队伍排到了"转角再转角"。 近期，泡泡玛特APP还首次登顶美国APP STORE购物榜。 LABUBU为THE MONSTERS系列旗下IP，由中国香港艺术家、泡泡玛特签约艺术家龙家升创作，灵 感来自北欧森林精灵。随着THE MONSTERS在全球迅速走红，赢得了全球粉丝的喜爱，相关收入在 去年实现了726.6%的同比大幅增长。 本文字数：1287，阅读时长大约2分钟 导读 ：今年一季度，泡泡玛特海外业务收益同比增长475%-480%。其中美洲市场收入同比增长达到895%-900%，欧 洲市场增长600%-605%，亚太地区增长345%-350%。 LABUBU"前方高能"系列每个售价为99元人民币，上线即被抢购，国内二手交易平台显示，新品最高 叫价10万元人民币，但不排除只是故意标价吸睛或者有价无市的情况。当然，大部分的二 ...