如何看光模块未来几年增长空间？20260108 摘要 光模块行业受益于数据中心升级和 AI 大模型需求，800G 光模块增量主 要来自 AI 应用。SKU 层互联需求增加，高速光模块需求呈指数级增长， 预计 2025-2028 年行业保持高增长。 海外大厂如谷歌、英伟达采用 Skyop 设计，增加光连接需求。谷歌预计 2026 年展示机柜内光互联方案，英伟达或稍晚。高密度机柜内部及 Skill Up 层之间将大量使用高速光模块。 硅光集成方案、LPO 等技术路径市场份额将提升。2025 年硅光在单模 光模块中占比 20%-30%，预计 2026 年翻倍至 40%-50%，主要因 800G 硅光产品成熟及 100G EML 芯片紧缺。 LPO 适用于小应用推理场景，LRO 和 TRO 通过定制化设计降低整体链 路功耗，适用于特定连接场景。这些定制化互联解决方案将在未来批量 应用于特定连接场景。 英伟达和博通积极推动 CPO 方案，但共封装结构导致维修复杂且成本高 昂，限制大规模应用。NPU 通过集成光模块缩短电信号传输距离，头部 厂商已开始研发。 Q&A 2026 年和 2027 年光模块行业的增长趋势如何？ ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the advancements and market trends in the CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) technology within the optical communication industry, highlighting its growing importance for AI and data center applications [2][5]. Group 1: CPO Technology Developments - Nvidia announced the adoption of single-channel 200G CPO technology in its InfiniBand and Ethernet switches in March [2]. - Meta's testing in September demonstrated the reliability of Broadcom's previous CPO products, leading to Broadcom's launch of its third-generation single-channel 200G CPO product in October [2]. - At the TEF conference in December, Nvidia reported that AI clusters based on CPO switches showed a tenfold improvement in reliability compared to systems using pluggable optical modules, translating to a fivefold increase in cluster uptime [2]. Group 2: Market Trends and Predictions - Ciena's acquisition of Nubis Communications and Marvell's acquisition of Celestial AI indicate major companies' focus on CPO technology, with expectations of more M&A activities in this space by early 2026 [5]. - Currently, CPO applications are limited to Scale-Out network design switches, with the next challenge being to extend Scale-Up interconnects beyond single racks, aiming to scale GPU clusters from 128-144 chips to 500-1000 chips for accelerated AI training [5]. - Amazon is using AEC to interconnect Trainium accelerators across two racks, but this may not scale well to more racks, while Huawei employs 800G pluggable LPO optical modules in its vertical Scale-Up network [5]. Group 3: Future Market Outlook - LightCounting has raised its market forecast for CPO, which now includes 1.6T and 3.2T ports for Scale-Up scenarios with transmission distances under 50 meters [5]. - Broadcom and Nvidia are expected to launch integrated CPO Scale-Up switches, GPUs, or XPUs by 2026, with shipments starting in 2027 [8]. - By 2030, the market size for CPO engines covering both Scale-Up and Scale-Out scenarios is projected to reach $10 billion, with nearly 100 million CPO ports expected to be shipped [8].

紫光股份12月15日在互动平台表示，公司深度布局高速光模块产业，除800G光模块外，积极推进1.6T 高性能光模块在稳定性与性价比上的双重突破，并持续完善光模块认证与测试体系，推动LPO在智算中 心与互联网数据中心的规模化商用。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of timely and professional information interpretation in the investment landscape, focusing on identifying investment value from significant events, analyzing industry chain companies, and interpreting key policy points [1]. Group 1: Company Developments - A company has achieved mass production and small-scale shipment of 1.6T optical modules using CPO and silicon photonic chips, with plans to develop 3.2T and higher-speed products, showcasing its full self-research design capability from silicon photonic chips to modules [1]. - The same company offers a comprehensive solution for data center liquid cooling and UPS, addressing the operational needs of AI computing centers and managing high-power heat dissipation core components [1].

Summary of Semtech Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Semtech - **Key Executives**: Hong Hou (CEO), Mark Lin (CFO) Industry Insights - **Industry Focus**: Data Center, IoT (LoRa), Optical Transceivers Key Points Financial Performance - Semtech reported a **Q3 revenue growth** of **8%** sequentially in the data center segment, with projections for **10% growth** in Q4 [3][24] - The company anticipates a significant ramp in **800G optical transceivers**, projecting **50 million units** for 2026, up from **30 million units** in 2025 [24] Product Developments - **ACC (Active Copper Cable)**: - Chosen for its **90% power savings** and negligible latency compared to AEC [4][8] - Expected to penetrate other hyperscalers' markets due to its leadership position [6] - **LPO (Low Power Optical)**: - Positioned as a more plug-and-play solution, with gradual adoption expected [12][16] - Anticipated to cannibalize DSP-based solutions, with projections of **25%-30%** of the mix being LPO-based in the future [17] - The opportunity for LPO is seen as maturing for **800G**, while **1.6T** is still developing due to signal integrity issues [20][21] Market Trends - The **LoRa** segment is experiencing growth, with Q3 revenues exceeding **$40 million** and a **CAGR of 15%-20%** [26][27] - LoRa is expanding into new verticals, including commercial drones and smart buildings, due to increased bandwidth capabilities [37] Strategic Initiatives - Semtech is focusing on divesting non-core assets to improve gross margins, targeting **60% gross margins** post-divestiture [34][41] - The acquisition of **ForceSense** technology is expected to enhance Semtech's sensing capabilities and broaden its customer base [28][30] Challenges and Opportunities - The company faces challenges in the Chinese market due to GPU availability limitations, but still sees sequential growth [42][43] - Semtech aims to fill capability gaps in its transceiver content, particularly in optics, to enhance its competitive position [44][45] Future Outlook - The company is optimistic about its growth trajectory, particularly in the data center and IoT segments, and is committed to increasing R&D investments to capture future opportunities [45][46]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q3 FY2026, net sales were $267 million, representing a 4% sequential increase and a 13% year-over-year increase, driven by data center and LoRa portfolio momentum [5][22] - Adjusted operating margins grew by 180 basis points sequentially and 230 basis points year-over-year [5][23] - Adjusted diluted earnings per share were $0.48, up 17% sequentially and 85% year-over-year [5][26] - Adjusted EBITDA was $62.7 million, up 11% sequentially and 23% year-over-year, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 23.5% [23][26] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Infrastructure net sales were $77.9 million, up 6% sequentially and 18% year-over-year, supported by data center business [7] - Data center net sales reached a record $56.2 million, up 8% sequentially and 30% year-over-year [8] - High-end consumer net sales for Q3 were $41.9 million, up 2% sequentially and 5% year-over-year [13] - Industrial net sales were $147.2 million, up 3% sequentially and 12% year-over-year, driven by strong LoRa performance [14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The data center business is expected to see continued growth, with projections for a 10% sequential increase in Q4 [27] - The high-end consumer market is anticipated to decrease by about 3% sequentially in Q4, partially offset by market share gains [27] - The industrial end market is expected to remain flat, with growth in IoT systems and connectivity offsetting declines [27] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on capturing growth opportunities in core assets and optimizing its portfolio, including the recent acquisition of the Force Sensing business [6][20] - The strategy includes leveraging R&D resources to expand the portfolio, particularly in LoRa and data center technologies [6][19] - The company aims to strengthen its market position in next-generation data center solutions and LoRa-based IoT applications [18][21] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the growth trajectory of the data center business, supported by strong demand and customer engagement [8][62] - The company anticipates a meaningful contribution from LPO in Q4, with expectations for continued design wins [46][60] - Management highlighted the importance of power efficiency in their solutions, positioning the company to lead in ultra-power-efficient technologies [18][19] Other Important Information - The company completed a $402.5 million convertible note offering, significantly reducing interest expenses and improving cash flow [24][25] - The adjusted net leverage ratio improved to 1.5, down from 7.2 year-over-year, reflecting strong business performance and debt reduction [27][26] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on CopperEdge ramping with lead CSP - Management indicated that CopperEdge is designed into three programs with a significant ramp expected starting mid-2026, which is seen as a catalyst for broader adoption [34][36] Question: Size of the ACC opportunity - Management noted that ACC is positioned between DAC and AEC, with a substantial total addressable market (TAM) and expected to capture a significant portion as deployment ramps up [38][39] Question: Growth expectations for LPO - Management expects LPO to contribute meaningfully in Q4, with a strong growth opportunity anticipated [44][46] Question: Gross margin outlook for Q4 - Management clarified that semiconductor gross margins are expected to remain healthy, driven by data center and LoRa growth, despite lower margins in IoT systems [50][51] Question: Force-sensing acquisition details - The force-sensing technology is expected to enhance the company's sensing portfolio, with integration already underway and first products shipped [65][68] Question: Divestiture of non-core assets - Management confirmed that interest from potential acquirers has increased, and the divestiture remains a top priority [82][84]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q3 FY2026, net sales were $267 million, representing a 4% sequential increase and a 13% year-over-year increase, driven by data center and LoRa portfolio momentum [5][22] - Adjusted operating margins grew by 180 basis points sequentially and 230 basis points year-over-year [5][23] - Adjusted diluted earnings per share were $0.48, up 17% sequentially and 85% year-over-year [5][26] - Adjusted EBITDA was $62.7 million, up 11% sequentially and 23% year-over-year, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 23.5% [23][26] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Infrastructure net sales were $77.9 million, up 6% sequentially and 18% year-over-year, supported by data center business [7] - Data center net sales reached a record $56.2 million, up 8% sequentially and 30% year-over-year [8] - High-end consumer net sales for Q3 were $41.9 million, up 2% sequentially and 5% year-over-year [13] - Industrial net sales were $147.2 million, up 3% sequentially and 12% year-over-year, driven by strong LoRa performance [14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The data center market is expected to see continued growth, with projections of approximately 10% sequential growth in Q4 [27] - The high-end consumer market is anticipated to decrease by about 3% sequentially, partially offset by market share gains [27] - The industrial end market is expected to remain flat, with growth in IoT systems and connectivity [27] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on capturing growth opportunities in core assets and optimizing its portfolio, including the recent acquisition of the Force Sensing business [6][20] - The strategy includes leveraging R&D resources to expand the portfolio, particularly in LoRa and data center technologies [6][19] - The company aims to strengthen its culture and operational excellence while addressing margin disparities through divestitures of non-core assets [20][21] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the strong demand pipeline for data center solutions, particularly in AI CapEx and low-power solutions [8][9] - The company anticipates a meaningful contribution from LPO in Q4, with expectations of continued growth in the data center business [46] - Management highlighted the importance of power efficiency in their solutions, positioning the company to lead in ultra-power-efficient technologies [18] Other Important Information - The company completed a $402.5 million convertible note offering, significantly reducing interest expenses and improving cash flow [24][25] - The acquisition of the Force Sensing business is expected to enhance the company's sensing portfolio and create cross-selling opportunities [14][70] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on CopperEdge ramping with lead CSP - Management indicated that CopperEdge is designed into three programs with a ramp expected to start in mid-2026, which will serve as a catalyst for broader adoption among other CSPs [34][36] Question: Size of the ACC opportunity - Management noted that ACC is positioned between DAC and AEC, with significant potential to capture market share due to its power-saving advantages [38][39] Question: Growth expectations for LPO - Management expects LPO to contribute meaningfully in Q4, with a strong ramp anticipated throughout 2026 [46][62] Question: Force Sensing acquisition details - The force sensing technology enhances capabilities for smart wearables and computing, with integration already underway and first products shipped [66][70] Question: Gross margin outlook for ISC business - Management acknowledged that ISC gross margins are expected to be lower due to the mix of cellular modules, but semiconductor gross margins remain healthy [102][103]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q3 2026, net sales were $267 million, up 4% sequentially and up 13% year-over-year, driven by data center and LoRa portfolio momentum [4] - Adjusted operating margins grew 180 basis points sequentially and 230 basis points year-over-year [4] - Adjusted diluted earnings per share were $0.48, up 17% sequentially and 85% year-over-year [25] - Adjusted EBITDA was $62.7 million, up 11% sequentially and 23% year-over-year, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 23.5% [22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Infrastructure net sales were $77.9 million, up 6% sequentially and 18% year-over-year, supported by data center business [7] - Data center net sales reached a record $56.2 million, up 8% sequentially and 30% year-over-year [8] - High-end consumer net sales for Q3 were $41.9 million, up 2% sequentially and 5% year-over-year [12] - Industrial net sales were $147.2 million, up 3% sequentially and 12% year-over-year, driven by strong LoRa performance [13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The data center business is expected to see continued growth, with projections for a 10% sequential increase in Q4 [26] - The high-end consumer market is anticipated to decrease by about 3% sequentially in Q4, partially offset by market share gains [26] - The industrial end market is expected to remain flat, with growth in IoT systems and connectivity [26] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on capturing growth opportunities in core assets and optimizing its portfolio [19] - The acquisition of the Force Sensing business is expected to enhance the sensor portfolio and create cross-selling opportunities [5][13] - The company aims to lead in ultra-power-efficient solutions across high-bandwidth data center networking and IoT applications [18] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the growth trajectory of the data center business, supported by strong demand for low-power solutions [9][10] - The company is well-positioned to drive LoRa adoption with new capabilities and features [15] - Management highlighted the importance of maintaining a strong balance sheet and reducing interest expenses to support strategic investments [24] Other Important Information - The company completed a $402.5 million convertible note offering, significantly reducing annual interest expenses [23][24] - Operating cash flow for Q3 was $47.5 million, up 60% year-over-year, indicating strong cash generation [25] - The company is actively engaged in divesting non-core assets, with multiple indications of interest from potential acquirers [6][52] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the outlook for CopperEdge with the lead CSP? - Management indicated that CopperEdge is designed into three programs, with a substantial ramp expected throughout fiscal year 2026 [30][31] Question: How does LPO fit into the market? - Management anticipates a meaningful contribution from LPO in Q4, with strong design wins expected [34] Question: What is the expected gross margin for Q4? - The semiconductor gross margin is projected to be 60.5%, with lower margins anticipated in the IoT systems and connectivity segment [57] Question: What has changed regarding the divestiture of non-core assets? - Management noted increased interest from potential acquirers due to improved geopolitical conditions and business opportunities [52] Question: What is the status of the ACC opportunity? - Management confirmed that there are no reliability issues with ACC, and the ramp is expected to begin in Q4 [60]

Group 1 - The company is deeply engaged in the high-speed optical module industry [1] - The company is actively promoting breakthroughs in the stability and cost-effectiveness of 1.6T high-performance optical modules [1] - The company is continuously improving its optical module certification and testing system [1] Group 2 - The company collaborates with industry chain partners to promote the large-scale commercial use of LPO in intelligent computing centers and internet data centers [1]

Core Insights - The global demand for computing power is expected to surge dramatically, with a forecasted increase of 100,000 times by 2035, driven by AI storage needs growing 500 times [5][6] - Chinese manufacturers are leading the midstream market globally, with companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng achieving significant growth through technological advancements and strategic positioning [6][10] Industry Overview - Huawei's report highlights a shift from 9 billion people to 900 billion smart entities, marking a transition from mobile internet to smart entity internet [5] - The AI computing market is projected to reach $1.2 trillion by 2025, with China accounting for 38% of this market, primarily driven by smart driving, industrial AI, and medical imaging [6][10] Company Performance - Zhongji Xuchuang reported a revenue of 14.789 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 36.95%, with a net profit of 3.995 billion yuan, up 69.4% [7] - Xinyi Sheng experienced explosive growth, with a revenue of 10.437 billion yuan, a 282.64% increase, and a net profit of 3.942 billion yuan, up 355.68% [10] - Tianfu Communication achieved a revenue of 2.456 billion yuan, a 57.8% increase, with a 91% growth in active optical device business [10] Technological Advancements - The light module technology is evolving rapidly, with a focus on rate iteration, material innovation, and packaging breakthroughs [12] - The transition from 800G to 1.6T modules is becoming mainstream, with significant commercial advancements expected in the coming years [12][13] - Innovations such as CPO and LPO are set to address power consumption challenges while enhancing bandwidth density [13][14] Market Dynamics - The competitive landscape shows that Chinese companies dominate the global midstream market, with Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng ranking among the top three globally [10] - The strategic value of light modules as a core component of AI infrastructure is increasingly recognized, positioning Chinese firms favorably in the global competition [14]