业绩简评 公司于 1 月 20 日公布 2025Q4 运营情况。安踏主品牌 Q4 零售额同 比录得低单位数负增长；FILA 同比录得中单位数正增长；其他品 牌（不含 2024 年 1 月 1 日后新加入品牌）同比录得 35-40%正増 长。2025 全年安踏主品牌同比录得低单位数正增长；FILA 同比录 得中单位数正增长；所有其他品牌同比录得 45-50%正增长。 经营分析 主品牌 Q4 流水小幅下降，全年流水实现稳健增长。安踏主品牌 Q4 零售流水同比小幅下滑，主要受外部需求与竞争环境恶化影响，同 时电商业务仍处于调整期。经营质量方面，线下折扣率稳定在约七 一折，线上折扣率较同比收窄 2pct 至约五五折，库销比略高于 5 倍（健康区间）。新业态门店表现突出，冠军系列年末门店达 150 家、流水破 10 亿；灯塔店效率较普通门店高出超 60%。海外业务 持续推进，美国及东南亚等市场加速布局，为中长期增长提供支 撑。25 全年安踏主品牌流水同比低单位数增长，符合指引。 FILA 流水稳健增长，26 年有望延续增长势头。FILAQ4 实现中单位 数增长，且较前三季度环比加速,其中 FILA 大货线下实现高单位 ...

Core Insights - Anta's main brand and FILA recorded low single-digit revenue growth in Q3 2025, with other brands experiencing a growth of 45%-50% [1][2] - The company has adjusted its revenue guidance for the Anta main brand to low single-digit growth for the year, while maintaining forecasts for other brands [1][3] - The overall revenue projections for the group from 2025 to 2027 are set at 78.06 billion, 86.73 billion, and 95.55 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 10%, 11%, and 10% respectively [3] Brand Performance - Anta's main brand saw low single-digit growth in offline sales and high single-digit growth online, with inventory levels remaining healthy [1][2] - FILA's performance was strong, with mid-single-digit growth in bulk sales and high single-digit growth in e-commerce, maintaining discount levels similar to the previous quarter [2][3] - Other brands like Descente, Kelong, and MAIA reported significant revenue growth, with Kelong achieving a 70% increase and MAIA focusing on differentiated strategies for Asian women's apparel [2][3] Strategic Initiatives - The company is exploring new retail formats and optimizing operational efficiency, including the expansion of outdoor segments and increasing coverage in key commercial areas [1][3] - Anta's international expansion includes a three-year plan to open 1,000 stores in Southeast Asia and the launch of its flagship store in Los Angeles by the end of the year [2] - FILA has launched a tennis strategy and product line, renewing its sponsorship of the China Open and engaging in partnerships with universities for research and development [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Anta Sports [2] Core Views - Anta's main brand experienced low single-digit growth in Q2 2025, while FILA saw mid-single-digit growth, and other brands grew by 50%-55%. The company is focusing on enhancing channel operational efficiency and expanding new business formats for the Anta brand [1][5] - The company expects net profits of 13.43 billion, 15.51 billion, and 17.15 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -14%, 15%, and 11%. Excluding one-time gains from the acquisition of Amer, the net profit growth rates are projected to be 13%, 15%, and 11% [1][5] - The current market capitalization corresponds to a PE ratio of 18x for 2025 and 15x for 2026, indicating a favorable valuation [1][5] Summary by Sections Overall Revenue Situation - In Q2 2025, Anta's main brand revenue showed low single-digit growth, while FILA's revenue grew in the mid-single digits, and other brands experienced growth of 50%-55% [5][6] - The slowdown in Anta's main brand growth is attributed to the acceleration of offline channel upgrades and store renovations, which impacted sales [5][6] Brand Performance - FILA's revenue in Q2 2025 saw high single-digit growth, with notable performance in golf and tennis product lines [5][6] - Other brands, such as Descente and KOLON, reported growth exceeding 40% and 70%, respectively, benefiting from the rise in winter sports and outdoor leisure activities [5][6] Discount and Inventory Management - In Q2 2025, Anta's main brand offered discounts of 27% for bulk purchases and 50% online, with a slight increase in discount levels [5][6] - The inventory turnover ratio for Anta's main brand was around 5 months, indicating relatively healthy inventory management [5][6] Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company anticipates revenue of 77.96 billion, 85.45 billion, and 92.97 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 10%, 10%, and 9% [6][9] - The report emphasizes the ongoing expansion of Anta's channel new business formats and the optimization of overall channel operational efficiency [5][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy rating for Anta Sports [3][10] Core Views - In Q1 2025, Anta's main brand and FILA both experienced high single-digit growth, while other brands saw growth between 65% and 70%. The company is deepening online discounts and has a relatively healthy inventory situation [1][2][10] - Anta plans to acquire Jack Wolfskin for $290 million to enhance its outdoor brand portfolio, which is expected to be completed by the end of Q2 or early Q3 2025 [6][10] - The projected net profits for Anta from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 13.43 billion, 15.51 billion, and 17.15 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -14%, 15%, and 11% respectively, excluding one-time gains from the Amer acquisition [1][10] Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue for 2025 is projected to be 77.96 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 10%. The company expects to achieve revenues of 85.45 billion yuan in 2026 and 92.97 billion yuan in 2027 [8][10] - The current market capitalization corresponds to a PE ratio of 16x for 2025 and 14x for 2026 [10] - As of the end of Q1 2025, Anta's inventory turnover ratio is less than 5, indicating effective inventory management [6][10] Brand Performance - Anta's main brand saw high single-digit growth in Q1 2025, with children's products also performing well. The overall online sales for the brand experienced low double-digit growth [1][11] - FILA's sales in Q1 2025 showed high single-digit growth, with children's products growing at a low double-digit rate and the FILA Fusion line achieving high double-digit growth [2][11] - Other brands under Anta, such as Descente and KOLON, reported significant growth rates of 60% and 100% respectively in Q1 2025 [2][11]