Welcome to Market Catalysts. I'm Julie Hyman. We are 30 minutes into the US trading day.Let's get to the three market catalysts we're watching this hour. First up, utilities and tech are pushing stocks to new records with the S&P 500 rising for the eighth straight session. Of course, AI remains a strong catalyst.An updated forecast from Dell and the ongoing enthusiasm from AMD's Open AI deal continuing to propel tech stocks. We'll bring you a few fresh picks in AI and the shutdown impass. President Trump se ...

It's always good to see you. Uh you never cease to amaze me on these deals you strike and and what you've been doing here at AMD since you joined many years ago. Uh congrats on this news for investors not familiar with precisely what you announced.I'm taking it as open AI AMD are working together to build the future of AI infrastructure. How do you see it. >> Yeah.Well, first of all, Brian, it's great to be here uh with you and yes, uh today is a a big moment for us. Uh very exciting deal. you know, when yo ...

Core Insights - Anthropic has secured $13 billion in funding, leading to a valuation of $183 billion, and plans to double its overseas workforce and quadruple its AI team within the year [1] - The demand for the Claude model is driving rapid growth, with the number of clients increasing from under 1,000 to 300,000 in just four years [1] Group 1: Company Background and Positioning - OpenAI, founded in 2015, initially aimed for non-profit goals but shifted focus to commercialization after the success of its GPT series, particularly after receiving significant investment from Microsoft [2][3] - OpenAI's growth is heavily supported by Microsoft, which provides not only funding but also essential computing power through Azure, making OpenAI a strategic asset for Microsoft in the cloud computing market [3][4] - Anthropic was founded by former OpenAI team members dissatisfied with the focus on AGI over safety, positioning itself as a reliable and secure alternative, particularly targeting regulated industries like finance and healthcare [6][7] Group 2: Financial Performance and Growth - Anthropic's revenue has surged from an annualized $1 billion to $5 billion in just two years, with 80% of its income derived from enterprise subscriptions and API calls [6] - Amazon has invested heavily in Anthropic, initially committing $4 billion and later increasing it to $8 billion, viewing Claude as a key model for its AWS platform [6][8] Group 3: Competitive Dynamics - The competition between OpenAI and Anthropic reflects a broader struggle between Microsoft and Amazon in the cloud computing space, with each company leveraging its respective AI partnerships to gain market share [9][20] - Microsoft Azure's market share has increased significantly, reaching 24% globally, while AWS's share has declined to 30%, indicating a tightening competitive landscape [18][21] Group 4: Strategic Partnerships and Dependencies - The relationship between AI companies and their cloud providers is critical, as access to computing power is essential for model training and development, leading to a reliance on these partnerships [10][11] - Anthropic's strategy involves maintaining flexibility in partnerships, having secured backing from both AWS and Google, while also keeping options open with Microsoft [13][22] Group 5: Market Trends and Future Outlook - The AI industry faces challenges related to the scarcity of computing resources, particularly GPUs, which are essential for training large models, creating a competitive environment for access to these resources [10][25] - Regulatory pressures and energy costs are emerging as significant factors that could impact the growth and operational strategies of AI companies, with potential implications for their partnerships and market positioning [26][28]

Key Points Nvidia and OpenAI recently signed a letter of intent for 10-plus gigawatts of AI infrastructure, with Nvidia investing up to $100 billion in the AI pioneer. The partnership locks in OpenAI's training needs through 2028 while custom chips remain in development. Deal complements the $500 billion Stargate project, providing concrete demand visibility for Nvidia's growth trajectory. 10 stocks we like better than Nvidia › Wall Street's AI infrastructure story just got its biggest validation ...

Core Viewpoint - AMD has transformed from a laggard to a strong competitor in the data center CPU market, driven by advantages in CPU and a shift towards AI accelerators, despite short-term investor focus on volatility [1][2]. Group 1: Data Center Growth - AMD has established a multi-engine growth infrastructure encompassing CPU, GPU, AI PC, and future rack systems, which will drive long-term growth in the CPU market [2]. - The data center is the key battleground for AMD, with inference task computing power now surpassing training as the primary driver of demand [2]. - AMD's data center revenue reached $3.24 billion in Q2 2025, a 14% year-over-year increase, attributed to record EPYC CPU sales [2]. Group 2: AI Accelerator Performance - AI GPU revenue has declined due to the transition from MI300 to MI350 and export controls, leading to an $800 million inventory write-down [4]. - The upcoming MI355 is expected to outperform NVIDIA's B200 by processing 40% more tokens per dollar, a critical metric for large-scale companies [4][6]. Group 3: Long-term Differentiation - AMD's acquisition of ZT Systems enhances its capabilities in rack-level design, allowing it to compete directly with NVIDIA's offerings [9]. - The focus on autonomous AI projects across various markets positions AMD as a viable alternative to NVIDIA, especially in government projects requiring domestic infrastructure [12]. Group 4: Financial Outlook - AMD's expected P/E ratios for FY2025 and FY2026 are 40.4 and 26.2, respectively, aligning with industry medians, indicating potential for growth despite initial high valuations [13]. - Revenue is projected to grow from $33 billion in 2025 to $40.1 billion in 2026, with expected EPS increasing from $3.90 to $6.01, a 55% rise [13]. Group 5: Investment Perspective - AMD is viewed as a stable investment, with EPYC CPUs providing consistent revenue and GPUs and rack systems poised for significant growth in inference and autonomous AI demand [16]. - Recent stock price adjustments are seen as healthy corrections rather than trend reversals, with potential for long-term shareholder returns if AMD successfully executes its GPU roadmap [16].

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia has launched the Rubin CPX, a CUDA GPU designed for processing large-scale context AI, capable of handling millions of tokens efficiently and quickly [5][4]. Group 1: Product Overview - Rubin CPX is the first CUDA GPU specifically built for processing millions of tokens, featuring 30 petaflops (NVFP4) computing power and 128 GB GDDR7 memory [5][6]. - The GPU can complete million-token level inference in just 1 second, significantly enhancing performance for AI applications [5][4]. - The architecture allows for a division of labor between GPUs, optimizing cost and performance by using GDDR7 instead of HBM [9][12]. Group 2: Performance and Cost Efficiency - The Rubin CPX offers a cost-effective solution, with a single chip costing only 1/4 of the R200 while delivering 80% of its computing power [12][13]. - The total cost of ownership (TCO) in scenarios with long prompts and large batches can drop from $0.6 to $0.06 per hour, representing a tenfold reduction [13]. - Companies investing in Rubin CPX can expect a 50x return on investment, significantly higher than the 10x return from previous models [14]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Nvidia's strategy of splitting a general-purpose chip into specialized chips positions it favorably against competitors like AMD, Google, and AWS [15][20]. - The architecture of the Rubin CPX allows for a significant increase in performance, with the potential to outperform existing flagship systems by up to 6.5 times [14][20]. Group 4: Industry Implications - The introduction of Rubin CPX is expected to benefit the PCB industry, as new designs and materials will be required to support the GPU's architecture [24][29]. - The demand for optical modules is anticipated to rise significantly due to the increased bandwidth requirements of the new architecture [30][38]. - The overall power consumption of systems using Rubin CPX is projected to increase, leading to advancements in power supply and cooling solutions [39][40].

Core Insights - Broadcom's semiconductor revenues are significantly boosted by the rising demand for XPUs, essential for training Generative AI models, with a 26% year-over-year increase in Q3 fiscal 2025 [1][10] - AI revenues surged 63% year-over-year to $5.2 billion, with XPUs contributing 65% of these revenues [1][10] - The consolidated backlog reached $110 billion, with over $10 billion in orders for AI racks driven by XPU demand [2] Financial Performance - Semiconductor solutions revenues accounted for 57.5% of net revenues, totaling $9.17 billion in Q3 fiscal 2025 [1] - Fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 AI revenues are expected to rise 66% year-over-year to $6.2 billion, while semiconductor revenues are projected to grow 30% year-over-year to $10.7 billion [4][10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for semiconductor sales is $10.44 billion, indicating a 27% growth from the previous year [4] Product Developments - Broadcom has launched the Tomahawk 6, the first 102.4 Terabits/sec Ethernet switch, and the Tomahawk Ultra, achieving 250ns switch latency at full 51.2 Tbps throughput [3] - The Jericho4 Ethernet fabric router can interconnect over one million XPUs across multiple data centers [3] Competitive Landscape - Broadcom faces intense competition in the semiconductor market from NVIDIA and AMD [5] - NVIDIA is capitalizing on the growth of AI and high-performance computing, with upcoming Blackwell Ultra GPUs expected to enhance AI inference capabilities [6] - AMD's growth is supported by strong demand for its Instinct accelerators, with significant adoption among top AI companies [7] Stock Performance and Valuation - Broadcom's shares have increased by 59% year-to-date, outperforming the broader Zacks Computer and Technology sector, which returned 16.8% [8] - The stock is trading at a forward 12-month price/earnings ratio of 45.57X, compared to the sector's 28.27X, indicating a premium valuation [12] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2025 earnings is $6.71 per share, reflecting a 37.8% growth from fiscal 2024 [15]

Core Viewpoint - Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) has experienced solid growth despite temporary challenges from the Chinese export ban, with a year-to-date stock increase of approximately 30% following a recent dip after Q2 earnings results [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - AMD's overall revenue increased by 32% to $7.69 billion in Q2, but adjusted earnings per share (EPS) fell by 30% to $0.48, missing analyst expectations [8] - The data center segment, AMD's primary growth driver, saw a revenue increase of 14% to $3.2 billion, impacted by the inability to sell MI308 GPUs in China [3][8] - The client and gaming segment experienced a significant revenue surge of 69% to $3.6 billion, driven by strong CPU share gains and demand for new gaming GPUs [6] - The embedded segment reported a 4% revenue decline to $824 million, with expectations for sequential growth in the second half of the year [7] Group 2: Market Dynamics - AMD's data center revenue would have grown approximately 39% if not for the $700 million negative impact from the Chinese export restrictions [10] - The company is seeing increasing adoption of its MI300 and MI325 GPUs, with seven out of ten top model builders and AI companies utilizing its products [4] - AMD's CPUs are gaining market share in the server space, driven by rising demand for cloud and on-premises computing and investments in AI infrastructure [5] Group 3: Future Outlook - AMD projects Q3 revenue growth of 28% to $8.7 billion, excluding potential revenue from MI308 shipments to China [8] - The company is on track to introduce its M400 chip, aiming to compete with Nvidia's next-generation Rubin chip, indicating future growth potential in the AI inference market [10][11] - The stock trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 27.5 times 2026 analyst estimates, suggesting potential upside if AMD becomes a significant player in the AI inference market [11]

Group 1 - The article discusses the promising new product roadmap of Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMD) but highlights disappointment with the MI300 in terms of traction and real-world performance [1] - The author emphasizes a focus on investing in companies within oligopolistic sectors that have high barriers to entry, while avoiding smaller companies due to perceived risks [1] - The investment approach is centered on growth at a reasonable price, primarily targeting a mid- to long-term investment horizon [1] Group 2 - The author has a background in mechanical engineering and has transitioned from the oil and gas sector to focus on global equities, particularly in the semiconductor industry [1] - The article aims to provide small investors with valuable investment ideas, particularly in semiconductors, robotics, and energy [1] - The author has completed CFA Level II in 2024 and is licensed by the Brazilian Securities Commission as both a portfolio manager and an investment consultant [1]

Group 1: Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) - AI is projected to contribute $15.7 trillion to the global economy by 2030, presenting a significant opportunity for AMD [3] - AMD's stock has shown recovery after a sharp pullback, with the company set to supply chips to a leading AI firm [3][5] - The launch of AMD's MI300 data center GPU in late 2023 generated $5 billion in revenue, with management identifying a $500 billion opportunity in AI inferencing [5] - AMD reported a 57% year-over-year increase in data center revenue, benefiting from business with a major AI model developer [6] - The upcoming launch of the Instinct MI400 GPU in 2026, with OpenAI's plans to use it, indicates growing momentum for AMD's data center business [7] - The demand for AI inferencing hardware is expected to rise from $106 billion in 2025 to $255 billion by 2030, positioning AMD favorably in this market [7] Group 2: Coinbase Global - The cryptocurrency market was valued at over $3 trillion as of June 12, with only 7% of the global population currently using cryptocurrency, indicating significant growth potential for Coinbase [9] - Coinbase, as a leading cryptocurrency exchange, holds more than $300 billion in assets and has seen its stock rise nearly 600% since 2022 due to increased trading volumes [10] - The company is expanding its trading products and services to attract institutional investors, which constitute the majority of its trading volume [11] - Increasing demand for digital assets is expected to drive higher trading volumes and revenue for Coinbase [12] - A report indicated that 60% of Fortune 500 executives are engaged in blockchain initiatives, supporting the long-term outlook for cryptocurrencies [13] - Coinbase aims to evolve from a leading crypto exchange to a comprehensive financial services platform, enhancing its position in the booming market [14]