Core Viewpoint - The methanol futures market has shown relative weakness amidst overall industrial price increases, with a significant price drop observed following a cooling market sentiment [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - Methanol futures prices fell nearly 4% on July 28 and continued to decline by 0.33% recently, indicating a bearish trend [1] - Analysts suggest that the weak performance of methanol futures is due to a lack of strong upward drivers in its fundamentals, despite macroeconomic positive sentiments [1][2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Current methanol fundamentals exhibit three high characteristics: high supply elasticity, weak demand, and high inventory levels, with port inventories up 22% year-on-year [2] - Domestic production remains high, and increased imports are expected, particularly from Iran, which may see imports rise to 381,700 tons by the end of July [2] - The demand side is weak, with traditional downstream sectors facing losses and methanol procurement intentions being low due to reduced operating rates [1][2] Group 3: Future Outlook - Short-term expectations indicate continued supply pressure and weak demand, with port inventory accumulation likely to persist, leading to price correction risks [3] - Mid-term prospects may improve as the traditional demand season approaches in September, alongside potential maintenance increases and uncertainties in imports [3] - Analysts emphasize the need to monitor import schedules and the recovery progress of downstream ethylene production facilities [3]