1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September, domestic methanol supply will gradually recover, and imports will remain at a high level, but the marginal increase in overall supply is limited. Due to the improvement in profits, MTO plants are expected to resume production, and demand is expected to pick up in September. Overall, the marginal increase in supply is limited, demand will pick up marginally, and total inventory is expected to peak. Therefore, methanol prices are expected to enter a phased bottom - area, and investors should pay attention to buying opportunities on dips [3] 3. Summaries Based on the Table of Contents 3.1 Supply: 9 - month domestic start - up stabilizes, and output is expected to increase slightly - **Production Profit**: Coal - to - methanol profits fluctuated within a narrow range. For example, coal - to - methanol profits in Inner Mongolia and Shandong showed different trends over time [6][7][8] - **Domestic Production**: In August, the domestic start - up rate was slightly lower than in July, and production decreased by 290,000 tons. It is expected that production in September will recover to around 9.7 million tons [3] - **Import Profit and Foreign Supply**: Iranian plants were operating normally in August, and production is expected to be stable in September. The import volume increased significantly to around 1.8 million tons in August. As the India - China price spread widened significantly, the subsequent arrival volume is expected to peak, and the import volume in September is expected to remain high but with limited growth [3][15] 3.2 Demand: MTO plants have the expectation of resuming production, and demand is supported - **Downstream Margins**: As methanol prices weakened, downstream profits generally improved. It is expected that MTO plants will have a resumption plan in September. For example, the margins of acetic acid, MTO, formaldehyde, etc. showed different trends over time [27][33] - **Downstream Start - up Rates and Purchases**: The start - up rates of MTO, formaldehyde, MTBE, acetic acid, etc. showed different trends over time. Factory orders, MTO purchases, and traditional downstream purchases also had their own characteristics [39][40][43][44] 3.3 Inventory: It is expected that inventory will peak in September - **Total Inventory**: There was an unexpected inventory build - up, and it is expected that the total inventory will peak in September [45] - **Inland Inventory**: There were many refinery overhauls in August, and inventory was transferred to the social sector, but the actual inventory still increased [48] - **Port Inventory**: With a significant increase in arrival volume, port inventory quickly reached a five - year high [58] 3.4 Price Spreads: The basis fluctuated and strengthened - **Domestic Regional Price Spreads**: There were various domestic regional price spreads, such as the spreads between different regions like Lubei - Inner Mongolia North, Lubei - Inner Mongolia South, etc., which showed different trends over time [62][63][65] - **Domestic Freight Rates**: Freight rates between different regions, such as Inner Mongolia North - Lubei, Inner Mongolia South - Lubei, etc., also had their own trends [71][72] - **Domestic Logistics Windows**: The logistics window between Shanxi - Lubei showed certain fluctuations [79][80] - **Internal - External Price Spreads**: There were price spreads between Southeast Asia - China and India - China, which also changed over time [81] - **Basis and Calendar Spreads**: The basis fluctuated and strengthened. Calendar spreads such as 1 - 5, 5 - 9, and 9 - 1 also showed different trends [87][88][89] 3.5 Warehouse Receipts: Slightly increased compared to last month - The number of warehouse receipts showed a slight increase compared to the previous month [93]

Core Viewpoint - The methanol futures market has shown relative weakness amidst overall industrial price increases, with a significant price drop observed following a cooling market sentiment [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - Methanol futures prices fell nearly 4% on July 28 and continued to decline by 0.33% recently, indicating a bearish trend [1] - Analysts suggest that the weak performance of methanol futures is due to a lack of strong upward drivers in its fundamentals, despite macroeconomic positive sentiments [1][2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Current methanol fundamentals exhibit three high characteristics: high supply elasticity, weak demand, and high inventory levels, with port inventories up 22% year-on-year [2] - Domestic production remains high, and increased imports are expected, particularly from Iran, which may see imports rise to 381,700 tons by the end of July [2] - The demand side is weak, with traditional downstream sectors facing losses and methanol procurement intentions being low due to reduced operating rates [1][2] Group 3: Future Outlook - Short-term expectations indicate continued supply pressure and weak demand, with port inventory accumulation likely to persist, leading to price correction risks [3] - Mid-term prospects may improve as the traditional demand season approaches in September, alongside potential maintenance increases and uncertainties in imports [3] - Analysts emphasize the need to monitor import schedules and the recovery progress of downstream ethylene production facilities [3]