②多家氟化工公司发布的2025年度业绩报告显示，新能源市场需求拉动部分氟化工企业净利润上涨，未 来前景广阔。 ③统计局发布数据显示，1月基础化学原料制造价格由下降0.1%转为上涨0.7%。 国盛证券指出，站在2026年化工产品价格上涨具备动能：1）供给端在行业资本开支下行，叠加环保限 产和部分化工企业因成本劣势关停背景下，竞争格局持续改善；2）需求端从制造业PMI数据已可见改 善信号；3）反内卷政策导向下，龙头企业开始积极带领行业降低负荷率来挺价。 化工ETF天弘（159133）跟踪的是中证细分化工产业主题指数，该指数全面覆盖化工各个细分领域，包 含磷化工、氟化工、磷肥、钾肥等行业龙头，是纯正的化工板块标的。投资者可借道化工ETF天弘 （159133）以及联接基金（C类015897）一键分享化工板块整体机遇。 消息面上： ①近日，瑞银、摩根士丹利等外资巨头集体看好化工行业拐点将至，其中瑞银最为乐观，明确提出中国 化工将开启新一轮3年上行周期。摩根士丹利认为，中国化工行业将迎来"长尾复苏"。 格隆汇2月11日｜今日化工板块高开高走，成份股新宙邦、新凤鸣分别涨9%和7%，带动化工ETF天弘 （159133）标的指 ...

Market Overview - The three major A-share indices experienced slight declines today, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.25% to 4065 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.33%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.73% [1] - The total market turnover was 2.16 trillion yuan, a decrease of 30.8 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with over 2700 stocks rising [1] Sector Performance - The mining and oil sectors saw gains, with stocks like Tongyuan Petroleum and Zhun Oil Co. hitting the daily limit [1] - The fluorochemical sector also performed well, with Tianji Co. reaching the daily limit [1] - The chemical sector experienced a comprehensive surge, with various chemical ETFs, including Chemical ETF, Chemical ETF Guotai, Chemical ETF Tianhong, Chemical ETF Jiashi, and Chemical 50 ETF, all rising over 2% [1][2] Chemical Industry Insights - The Chemical ETF tracks the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index, covering high-growth areas such as basic chemicals, fertilizers, agricultural chemicals, chemical fibers, and new energy materials, with leading companies like Wanhua Chemical and Yalake Co. among the top ten weighted stocks [2] - The chemical industry is experiencing a tightening supply side, with European companies reducing or shutting down overseas chemical production capacity due to operational pressures [3][4] - Domestic policies are promoting anti-involution, with the "Stabilizing Growth Work Plan for the Petrochemical and Chemical Industry" aiming to strictly control new capacity and eliminate outdated capacity, which is expected to enhance corporate profitability [3] Price Trends and Forecasts - January's PMI data fell below the boom-bust line, but price-related indicators showed improvement, with raw material purchase prices rising to 56, the highest in two years, and the producer price index (PPI) showing positive signals [3] - Chemical prices have rebounded significantly in January, with liquid chlorine, lithium hydroxide, acetonitrile, lithium carbonate, and butadiene performing well, indicating a potential recovery in chemical companies' profitability [3] - According to Zhongyuan Securities, the ongoing anti-involution policies are expected to strengthen supply-side constraints, benefiting certain sub-industries like chlor-alkali, pesticides, and polyester filament, as well as the coal chemical sector due to rising oil prices [3] Global Competitive Landscape - According to Everbright Securities, the chemical industry is experiencing a shift with China's chemical companies gaining global competitiveness while European firms face significant operational pressures [4] - The European Chemical Industry Council (Cefic) reported that from 2022 to 2025, the closure of production capacity in the European chemical industry is expected to increase sixfold, resulting in a cumulative loss of 37 million tons, approximately 9% of Europe's total chemical capacity [4] - China's chemical companies are benefiting from a complete industrial chain and energy cost advantages, with exports of chemical raw materials and products expected to grow by about 13% year-on-year by 2025 [4]

（文章来源：21世纪经济报道） 化工ETF天弘（159133）跟踪的是中证细分化工产业主题指数，该指数全面覆盖化工各个细分领域，包 含磷化工、氟化工、磷肥、钾肥等行业龙头。化工ETF天弘（159133）以及联接基金（C类015897）可 一键分享化工板块整体机遇。 国盛证券表示，供给格局改善，化工行业迎来估值修复。自2025年7月"反内卷"热潮以来，化工板块迎 来持续上涨。2025年Q4以来伴随化工ETF的发行、双碳政策发布，化工投资资金侧、供给侧逻辑迎来加 强。 2月2日，三大指数集体下跌，中证细分化工产业主题指数下跌5.15%，该指数成分股中，恩捷股份、天 赐材料飘红。 相关ETF方面，化工ETF天弘（159133）截至发稿成交额超6800万元，换手率近3%，溢折率0.05%，盘 中频现溢价交易；Wind金融终端数据显示，该ETF盘中获净申购达8500万份。 资金流向方面，该ETF上个交易日（1月30日）净流入额为2.77亿元，截至上个交易日，已连续23个交 易日获资金净流入，累计净流入额超17亿元。该ETF最新流通份额为19.7亿份，最新流通规模为24.27亿 元。 ...

Group 1 - Chemical concept stocks declined, with Wanhua Chemical, Hengli Petrochemical, and Baofeng Energy dropping over 6%, while Hualu Hengsheng fell over 5% and Yuntianhua decreased over 4% [1] - Affected by the market, chemical-related ETFs fell nearly 4% [1] Group 2 - Various chemical ETFs reported declines, with the Guotai Chemical ETF at 0.973 (-3.95%), the Chemical ETF at 0.882 (-3.92%), and the Chemical 50 ETF at 0.958 (-3.82%) [2] - Analysts indicate that the chemical industry, being a typical cyclical sector, usually follows a five-year cycle consisting of "profit upturn - capacity expansion - profit bottoming - capacity clearance/demand expectation improvement" [2] - Current industry conditions are at the cycle bottom, with expectations for supply-demand dynamics to improve and accelerate the recovery of industry prosperity [2]

Group 1 - The chemical sector is experiencing active trading, with the Tianhong Chemical ETF (159133) seeing a transaction volume of nearly 300 million yuan and a net subscription of 90 million units as of January 26 [1] - The Tianhong Chemical ETF has recorded a net inflow of 1.17 billion yuan on January 23, marking 18 consecutive trading days of net inflows, totaling 7.14 billion yuan [1] - The Tianhong Chemical ETF tracks the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index, which covers various segments of the chemical industry, including phosphate chemicals, fluorine chemicals, and fertilizers [1] Group 2 - The lithium carbonate market continues to show strong upward momentum, with the main futures contract rising over 6% to nearly 190,000 yuan per ton [1] - China Galaxy Securities indicates that capital expenditure in the chemical industry has entered negative growth in 2024, with supply expected to contract due to the "anti-involution" trend and accelerated clearance of outdated overseas capacity [2] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes expanding domestic demand, which is expected to open up demand space for chemical products [2] - A supply-demand bottom is believed to be established, with strong policy expectations potentially catalyzing an upward cycle in the chemical industry by 2026, leading to a "Davis Double Play" from valuation recovery to earnings growth [2]

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry is experiencing price increases and production adjustments, driven by global giants and domestic market dynamics, indicating potential investment opportunities in leading companies and sectors within the industry [4][5][6]. Group 1: ETF Performance - Several chemical ETFs have shown positive daily and year-to-date performance, with the highest daily increase of 1.98% for the E Fund Chemical Industry ETF and a year-to-date increase of 9.60% for the Jiashi Chemical ETF [2]. Group 2: Market Trends - The chemical ETFs track the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index, with nearly 50% of their holdings concentrated in large-cap leading stocks such as Wanhua Chemical and Salt Lake Potash, benefiting from strong market trends [4]. - Recent price increases in key chemical products include a 7.9% weekly rise in epoxy propane and a general upward trend in organic silicon intermediates, reflecting a positive market sentiment [4]. Group 3: Production Adjustments - Domestic polyester filament factories have reduced production by 6% starting January 14, leading to a cumulative reduction of 15%, driven by high raw material costs and seasonal demand patterns [5]. - The reduction in production is expected to help deplete inventories, potentially enhancing profitability for leading companies during the upcoming peak season [5]. Group 4: Industry Outlook - According to Huatai Securities, the chemical industry is facing a challenging period with weak demand and supply-side pressures, predicting a profitability low point for bulk chemicals in the second half of 2025 [6]. - The industry is currently at a turning point regarding capacity and inventory cycles, with expectations of recovery in demand by 2026, which may lead to an upward trend in profitability [6]. - Investment opportunities are suggested in sectors such as glyphosate, fertilizers, import substitution, domestic demand, and high-dividend assets, despite the overall weak performance in the industry [6].

Core Viewpoint - The chemical ETF Tianhong (159133) is experiencing significant capital inflow and positive market performance, driven by macroeconomic factors and industry dynamics [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 20, 2026, the chemical ETF Tianhong (159133) recorded a transaction volume of 6.5777 million yuan, with the underlying index rising by 0.46% [1]. - The ETF has seen a net subscription of 20 million shares within the first half hour of trading, indicating strong investor interest [1]. - The ETF's latest scale and share count have reached new highs since its inception, with a total net inflow of 312 million yuan over the past 14 days [2]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The Tianhong ETF tracks the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index, focusing on various sub-sectors within the Chinese chemical industry, including chemical raw materials and manufacturing [2]. - The chemical sector is experiencing a rebound, supported by macroeconomic factors such as an unexpected rise in PMI and a stronger yuan, which reduces import costs [2]. - The industry is witnessing a reduction in capital expenditure, with a shift towards "de-involution" strategies that help mitigate risks of oversupply [2][3]. Group 3: Price Trends and Future Outlook - Recent data shows that 44.1% of 170 tracked chemical products have seen price increases, with notable rises in lithium carbonate, ABS, and epoxy propane [3]. - The dual forces of supply-side contraction and demand-side growth, driven by national policies and external economic conditions, are expected to support a cyclical recovery in the chemical industry [3].

Group 1 - The market experienced a pullback after an initial rise, with the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index turning negative, while the chemical sector showed strong performance, with Haohua Technology rising over 7%, Hengli Petrochemical and Luxi Chemical up over 6%, and several other companies increasing by more than 5% [1] - The Tianhong Chemical ETF (159133), which tracks the CSI sub-sector chemical industry theme index, opened low but surged by 2.8% by midday, reaching a nearly three-year high [1] - Analysts indicate that capital expenditure in the chemical industry is expected to decline in 2024, and with the "anti-involution" trend and accelerated elimination of outdated overseas capacity, supply is likely to contract [1] Group 2 - The Tianhong Chemical ETF (159133) closely tracks the CSI sub-sector chemical industry theme index, which has a core advantage of comprehensive coverage and balanced structure [2] - The index selects large-scale, liquid companies from sub-industries such as chemical products, including both traditional leading enterprises and representatives from high-growth areas like new energy materials and fine chemicals [2]

Group 1 - The chemical sector ETFs have shown positive performance, with the top performers being the Chemical Industry ETF by E Fund, which increased by 3.31% on the day and 6.85% year-to-date, and the Chemical ETF by Penghua, which rose by 3.14% and 7.52% respectively [2] - In the past 10 trading days, significant net inflows were observed in the chemical sector, totaling 45.71 billion yuan for the Chemical ETF and 15.23 billion yuan for the Chemical 50 ETF [4][6] - The Chemical ETF tracks the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index, with nearly 50% of its holdings concentrated in large-cap leading stocks, including Wanhua Chemical and Salt Lake Industry, while the remaining 50% is diversified across various sub-sectors [8] Group 2 - The chemical industry is expected to experience a recovery in profitability by 2026, following a period of bottoming out in earnings and valuations, with supply-demand rebalancing as a new starting point [8] - According to Tianfeng Securities, the chemical industry is entering a phase of capacity release, with a potential reversal in supply-demand dynamics expected by 2026 [8] - Huatai Securities indicates that the chemical raw materials and products sector is at a turning point, transitioning from active destocking to passive restocking, with a recovery in domestic and international demand anticipated in 2026 [9]

Group 1 - The chemical ETF Tianhong (159133) has seen significant trading activity, with a transaction volume of 16.6868 million yuan and a peak increase of over 2% in the tracked index [1] - The net subscription for the chemical ETF Tianhong reached 34 million shares, indicating strong investor interest [1][2] - As of January 16, the latest scale of the chemical ETF Tianhong reached 889 million yuan, with a total of 769 million shares, both hitting record highs since its inception [2] Group 2 - The chemical ETF Tianhong has experienced continuous net inflows over the past 13 days, totaling 272 million yuan [2] - The ETF tracks a broad index of 50 stocks in the chemical industry, which have a large market capitalization and high liquidity, with over 93% of the index comprising basic chemicals, petroleum and petrochemicals, and power equipment [2] - The refrigerant market is currently experiencing a strong bullish trend due to supply and demand dynamics, with prices for R507 and R404 rising significantly, leading to enhanced profit expectations for companies in the fluorochemical sector [2][3] Group 3 - Citic Securities has indicated that the supply of third-generation refrigerants is tightening, while demand is being driven by the new energy vehicle sector, air conditioning, and foreign trade, suggesting a continued upward trend in industry prosperity [3]