投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【甲醇周报（MA）】 供需偏松价弱，库存维持高位 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-11-10 卢钊毅 从业资格证号：F3171622 投资咨询证号：Z0021177 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 甲醇：供需偏松价弱，库存维持高位 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏空 | 本周国内甲醇供应整体保持充裕。行业开工负荷小幅提升，西北等区域开工改善明显，煤制、焦炉气制等主流工艺产能利用率有所上升。虽有部分装置新增检修或持续停车， | | | | 但同期恢复生产的装置产能更多，检修带来的产量影响被有效对冲，整体产量呈增长态势。进口端货源补充持续，港口到港量充足，叠加前期库存处于高位，进一步夯实了市 | | | | 场供应基础。内地企业出货意愿较强，港口与内地货源流通顺畅。 | | 需求 | 偏空 | 本周甲醇下游需求整体偏淡且呈分化态势。主力下游烯烃（CTO/MTO）需求有局部支撑，部分企业外采意愿小幅提升，但行业整体开工未现明显改 ...

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货甲醇周报 港口浮仓攀升，甲醇走势或继续偏弱 20251109 萧勇辉 交易咨询号：Z0019917 从业资格号：F03091536 0769-22110802 审核：邓丹，从业资格号: F0300922，交易咨询号：Z0011401 甲醇供需概况 ◆ 风险点：煤价、天然气、原油的走势；MTO的开工率变化情况；进口量变化情况。 ◆ 库存：隆众资讯统计：本周，中国甲醇样本生产企业库存预计为37.87万吨，整体呈现小幅去库趋势。产区部分大装置意外停车，导致 供应减量；预计外轮显性卸货量偏高，需关注区域间价差对港口市场提货量的影响，目前来看，预计港口甲醇库存或继续累库，具体 关注外轮卸货速度。 ◆ 供应：隆众资讯统计：11月，中国甲醇产量及产能利用率周数据预计：产量200.84万吨左右，产能利用率88.51%左右，较本期上涨； 甲醇进口样本到港计划预估43.61万吨，其中显性36.81万吨，非显性6.8万吨；内贸预估3-4万吨附近。 ◆ 需求：隆众资讯统计：本周，山东恒通预期停车，西北、华东企业负荷预期上涨，对冲之后MTO行业开工小幅下降；甲醛、冰醋酸、 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September, domestic methanol supply will gradually recover, and imports will remain at a high level, but the marginal increase in overall supply is limited. Due to the improvement in profits, MTO plants are expected to resume production, and demand is expected to pick up in September. Overall, the marginal increase in supply is limited, demand will pick up marginally, and total inventory is expected to peak. Therefore, methanol prices are expected to enter a phased bottom - area, and investors should pay attention to buying opportunities on dips [3] 3. Summaries Based on the Table of Contents 3.1 Supply: 9 - month domestic start - up stabilizes, and output is expected to increase slightly - **Production Profit**: Coal - to - methanol profits fluctuated within a narrow range. For example, coal - to - methanol profits in Inner Mongolia and Shandong showed different trends over time [6][7][8] - **Domestic Production**: In August, the domestic start - up rate was slightly lower than in July, and production decreased by 290,000 tons. It is expected that production in September will recover to around 9.7 million tons [3] - **Import Profit and Foreign Supply**: Iranian plants were operating normally in August, and production is expected to be stable in September. The import volume increased significantly to around 1.8 million tons in August. As the India - China price spread widened significantly, the subsequent arrival volume is expected to peak, and the import volume in September is expected to remain high but with limited growth [3][15] 3.2 Demand: MTO plants have the expectation of resuming production, and demand is supported - **Downstream Margins**: As methanol prices weakened, downstream profits generally improved. It is expected that MTO plants will have a resumption plan in September. For example, the margins of acetic acid, MTO, formaldehyde, etc. showed different trends over time [27][33] - **Downstream Start - up Rates and Purchases**: The start - up rates of MTO, formaldehyde, MTBE, acetic acid, etc. showed different trends over time. Factory orders, MTO purchases, and traditional downstream purchases also had their own characteristics [39][40][43][44] 3.3 Inventory: It is expected that inventory will peak in September - **Total Inventory**: There was an unexpected inventory build - up, and it is expected that the total inventory will peak in September [45] - **Inland Inventory**: There were many refinery overhauls in August, and inventory was transferred to the social sector, but the actual inventory still increased [48] - **Port Inventory**: With a significant increase in arrival volume, port inventory quickly reached a five - year high [58] 3.4 Price Spreads: The basis fluctuated and strengthened - **Domestic Regional Price Spreads**: There were various domestic regional price spreads, such as the spreads between different regions like Lubei - Inner Mongolia North, Lubei - Inner Mongolia South, etc., which showed different trends over time [62][63][65] - **Domestic Freight Rates**: Freight rates between different regions, such as Inner Mongolia North - Lubei, Inner Mongolia South - Lubei, etc., also had their own trends [71][72] - **Domestic Logistics Windows**: The logistics window between Shanxi - Lubei showed certain fluctuations [79][80] - **Internal - External Price Spreads**: There were price spreads between Southeast Asia - China and India - China, which also changed over time [81] - **Basis and Calendar Spreads**: The basis fluctuated and strengthened. Calendar spreads such as 1 - 5, 5 - 9, and 9 - 1 also showed different trends [87][88][89] 3.5 Warehouse Receipts: Slightly increased compared to last month - The number of warehouse receipts showed a slight increase compared to the previous month [93]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rebound of domestic coking coal and coke prices and potential supply - side policies may boost market sentiment. Although the absolute value of port inventory is still low, production profit is good, domestic production and operating rate are still high, international methanol operating rate has rebounded to a high level, methanol imports have recovered, downstream profit is poor, downstream demand is under pressure, and inventory has increased. Therefore, methanol is likely to fluctuate. For single - side and option trading, the report suggests range - bound operations and selling straddle options [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Viewpoint and Strategy - **Inventory**: China's methanol sample production enterprise inventory reached 35.69 tons this week, a week - on - week increase of 0.46 tons or 1.31%. Port methanol inventory is expected to accumulate slightly [7]. - **Supply**: This week, China's methanol output is estimated to be around 191.93 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of about 85.17%. The import sample arrival plan is estimated at 32.60 tons, including 16.70 tons of visible and 15.90 tons of invisible imports, and domestic trade is estimated at 3.5 - 4.0 tons [7]. - **Demand**: This week, the overall start - up of the olefin industry slightly increased. The start - up rate of dimethyl ether remained flat, that of acetic acid increased, while those of formaldehyde and chloride decreased [7]. - **Industrial Chain Profit**: The import profit showed an inversion of - 43 yuan/ton. The profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia remained stable at 122 yuan/ton, while the downstream profit suffered large losses, with the profit loss of MTO in East China still being large at - 1131 yuan/ton [7]. - **Coal Price**: Some traders are bullish on the traditional coal - using peak season, but the port inventory is still high, and the oversupply situation is difficult to change in the short term [7]. - **Strategy**: For single - side trading, short MA509. For PP - 3MA, short the spread. In option trading, sell straddle options [7][10][11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Prices - **Spot Price**: As of July 10, the spot price of methanol in Taicang, Jiangsu was 2390 yuan/ton [15]. - **Basis**: As of July 10, the basis relative to the September contract was - 8 yuan/ton [15]. 3.3 Supply - side - **Capacity Utilization and Output**: Last week (20250704 - 0710), China's methanol output was 1909928 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 77148 tons, and the device capacity utilization rate was 84.75%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.89% [66]. - **International Operating Rate and Imports**: As of July 9, 2025, the Chinese methanol sample arrival volume was 31.03 tons, including 26.42 tons of foreign vessels and 4.61 tons of domestic trade vessels [71]. - **New Capacity in 2025**: In 2025, China's new methanol capacity is about 860 tons, with a capacity increase of about 8.4%. Overseas, the new methanol capacity is expected to be 505 tons [73][74]. 3.4 Demand - side - **Apparent Consumption**: From January to May, the apparent consumption of methanol was 4577 tons, an increase of 7.6% [78]. - **Methanol - to - Olefin Operating Rate and Output**: Last week, the MTO operating rate was 85.94%, a week - on - week increase of 0.55% [82]. - **Traditional Downstream Operating Rate**: The operating rates of different traditional downstream products showed different trends, such as formaldehyde, acetic acid, MTBE, and dimethyl ether [83][86]. - **Downstream Purchasing Volume**: No specific data summary was provided, but relevant charts were presented [90]. - **Production Enterprise Order Volume**: As of July 9, 2025, the sample enterprise's pending order volume was 22.12 tons, a decrease of 2.00 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 8.29% [98]. - **New Downstream Capacity**: In 2025, the new downstream capacity of methanol is mainly concentrated in the olefin field, with an estimated new olefin capacity of 236 tons and a theoretical new methanol demand of 660 tons. For traditional downstream, the new capacity is mainly in acetic acid and MTBE, with a theoretical new methanol demand of 587 tons [100]. 3.5 Inventory - **Enterprise Inventory**: As of July 9, 2025, China's methanol sample production enterprise inventory was 35.23 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.07 tons or 3.14% [104]. - **Port Inventory**: As of July 9, 2025, the Chinese methanol port sample inventory was 71.89 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.52 tons or 6.71% [107]. - **Port Floating Storage**: No specific data summary was provided, but relevant charts were presented [110].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The supply of methanol is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price of methanol lacks upward momentum due to the weak supply - demand situation and the narrowing theoretical operating range caused by the weak raw coal market [4][64]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - In May, the main contract 2509 of methanol futures first rose and then fell, showing a weak and volatile trend. The futures price at the end of the month was around 2,250 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of about 1%. The spot prices in Taicang and Inner Mongolia also decreased by 5% and 5.6% respectively compared to the end of last month [6]. - The basis of methanol in ports and inland areas weakened significantly. The port basis was around 60 yuan/ton at the end of the month, and the inland basis decreased by about 140 yuan/ton. The price difference between production and sales areas slightly expanded, but the arbitrage window remained closed [9]. - In May, the global methanol market mostly showed a weak trend. The CFR prices in China's main ports, Southeast Asia, Europe, and the US all declined, with decreases of 3.4%, 2.4%, 8.3%, and 6.1% respectively [14]. 2. Methanol Supply - Demand Analysis 2.1 High Supply in Production Areas and Potential Accumulation of Inland Inventory - In May, the domestic methanol device operating rate remained at a high level. The overall domestic methanol device operating load was 74.51%, 5 percentage points higher than the same period last year, and the operating load in the northwest region was 80.90%, nearly 5.44 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The domestic methanol output in May was about 7.24 million tons, a significant increase of 11% from the previous month [2][17]. - The inventory in inland areas has been low due to the external procurement of several methanol - to - olefin devices. However, as the inland production continues to increase, the inventory is expected to gradually accumulate, and the sales pressure will also increase, leading to a decrease in prices and a narrowing of corporate profits [19]. 2.2 Inventory Accumulation at Ports Has Reached a Turning Point - Iranian methanol devices restarted in mid - to - late March, increasing the quantity shipped to China. In April, China's methanol imports increased significantly, reaching 787,800 tons, a 66.54% increase from the previous month. In May, Iranian supplies continued to increase, but the import profit decreased as the Chinese spot price dropped. It is estimated that China's methanol imports in May were around 1.1 million tons [29]. - As of the end of May, the coastal methanol inventory was 639,500 tons, an increase of about 60,000 tons from the end of last month, a 10% month - on - month increase and a 19.49% year - on - year increase. It is expected that the import volume of coastal ports from the end of May to early June will be 790,000 tons, and the port inventory may gradually accumulate [30]. 2.3 Industrial Chain Situation - **International Natural Gas and Import Profit**: In May, international natural gas prices first decreased and then increased, and the international methanol production cost was around 1,780 yuan/ton, with a slight fluctuation in import cost [37]. - **Coal - to - Methanol Profit**: The domestic thermal coal market remained weak. As of the end of May, the price of Ordos Q5500 was around 420 yuan/ton, and the theoretical cost of northwest coal - to - methanol was around 1,680 yuan/ton. Although the profit of coal - to - methanol slightly decreased, it was still at a high level in recent years, and domestic supply may remain high [39]. - **MTO Device and Traditional Downstream**: By the end of May, the weighted operating rate of methanol downstream was about 75%, an increase of about 2.8 percentage points from the end of last month. The average operating load of methanol - to - olefin devices was 81.51%, an increase of over 4 percentage points from the previous month. Traditional downstream industries are entering the off - season, and the demand for methanol may decrease. However, the traditional downstream capacity is expanding, and if all planned new capacities are put into production, it will increase the demand for methanol by about 6.5 million tons [43][44].