1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The daily consumption of thermal power continues to be lower than the same period in previous years. The core contradiction between high inventory and weak demand continues to intensify, and coal prices show a downward trend. The domestic methanol operating rate and production remain at a high level, while the international methanol operating rate drops to a low level. The import pressure will decrease in January next year, and the supply pressure will reduce. The operating rate of traditional downstream industries is at a low level, while the MTO operating rate is at a high level. Affected by winter seasonal factors, there is an expectation of a slight contraction in demand. During the cycle, the unloading is smooth, the import volume is high, and the port methanol inventory has rebounded to a high level. The methanol supply - demand situation is bearish. It is expected that methanol prices may mainly fluctuate weakly [13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - demand Overview - **Inventory**: The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is expected to be 40.67 tons, with an overall incremental expectation. The expected arrival volume of foreign ships remains high, the import apparent demand may remain weak, and the port methanol inventory is expected to continue to accumulate [11]. - **Supply**: The weekly production of Chinese methanol is expected to be about 2.0635 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of about 90.86%, a decrease from the current period. The estimated arrival plan of methanol import samples is 466,200 tons, including 388,200 tons of visible and 78,000 tons of invisible. The domestic trade is estimated to be around 25,000 - 30,000 tons [11]. - **Demand**: Some enterprises in East and Northwest China continue to reduce their loads, and the average weekly operating rate of the industry is expected to decline slightly. Among traditional demands, the operating rates of glacial acetic acid and chlorides are expected to increase, while those of formaldehyde and dimethyl ether are expected to decrease [11]. - **Industrial Chain Profits**: The import profit remains at a loss of - 17 yuan/ton. The profit of coal - to - methanol production in Inner Mongolia remains stable at a loss of - 176 yuan/ton, and the downstream profit is at a large loss. The profit of MTO in East China remains at a loss of - 1,003 yuan/ton [11]. - **Coal Prices**: The daily consumption of thermal power continues to be lower than the same period in previous years. The core contradiction between high inventory and weak demand continues to intensify, and coal prices show a downward trend [11][13]. 3.2 Strategies - **Unilateral and Options**: Operate bearishly within the range. For options, sell straddle options [13]. - **MA Unilateral Strategy (Medium - term)**: Short MA605. As of December 25, the price of MA605 is 2,148 yuan. The logic is that the import volume is high, the traditional demand is poor, and the port inventory is at a relatively high level. The operation suggestion is to operate bearishly [17]. - **PP - 3MA Strategy**: Short the PP - 3MA spread. As of December 25, the spread of the May contract is - 220 yuan. The logic is that PP will still be in the peak production period in 2026, and the supply pressure of PP is greater than that of methanol. The new production capacity of methanol downstream is large, and the demand for methanol is resilient. However, recently, coal prices have fallen, and the short - term spread trend has high uncertainty. The operation suggestion is to wait and see or short on rallies [19]. 3.3 Futures and Spot Prices - **Spot Price**: As of December 15, the spot price of methanol in Taicang, Jiangsu is 2,145 yuan/ton [25]. - **Basis**: As of December 25, the basis relative to the May contract is - 17 yuan/ton [25]. 3.4 Supply Side - **Capacity Utilization and Production**: Last week (December 19 - 25, 2025), the production of Chinese methanol was 2,072,175 tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,200 tons. The device capacity utilization rate was 91.24%, a week - on - week increase of 0.80% [83]. - **International Operating Rate and Imports**: From December 18 - 24, 2025, the Chinese methanol sample arrival volume was 528,300 tons, including 498,300 tons of foreign ships (403,300 tons of visible and 95,000 tons of invisible) and 30,000 tons of domestic trade ships [91]. - **New Capacity in 2025**: In 2025, China's new methanol production capacity is about 7.43 million tons, with a capacity increase of about 7.3% [94]. - **New Capacity in 2026**: In 2026, China's new methanol production capacity is about 7.87 million tons, with a capacity increase of about 7.3% [95][125]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Apparent Consumption**: From January to November, the apparent consumption of methanol was 95.22 million tons, an increase of 9.75% [101]. - **Methanol - to - Olefins Operating Rate and Production**: The MTO operating rate is 88.68%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.44%. The loads of MTO enterprises in East and Northwest China have slightly decreased, and the average weekly operating rate of the industry continues to decline [105]. - **Traditional Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rates of traditional downstream industries are relatively low [109]. - **Downstream Purchasing Volume**: Not specifically summarized in the text. - **Production Enterprise Order Volume**: As of December 24, 2025, the pending orders of sample enterprises are 193,600 tons, a decrease of 26,800 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 12.16% [123]. 3.6 Inventory - **Enterprise Inventory**: As of December 24, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 404,000 tons, an increase of 12,800 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 3.28% [131]. - **Port Inventory**: As of December 24, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol port samples is 1.4125 million tons, an increase of 193,700 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 15.89%. The port inventory has significantly increased, mainly in Jiangsu [134]. - **Port Floating Storage**: Not specifically summarized in the text.

Report Information - Report Title: "Methanol Strategy Monthly Report: Iran's Plants Shut Down Due to Gas Restrictions" [3][4] - Report Date: December 1, 2025 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - In terms of supply, domestic methanol production is expected to decline slightly in December, and imports will fall from a high level. The shutdown of Iranian plants will lead to a significant drop in arrivals from mid - December to January. - In terms of demand, although the Ningbo Fude plant is scheduled for maintenance in December, the restart of Shandong Yangmei's plants and the launch of Shandong Lianhong's new plant at the end of the year are expected to increase the total olefin demand. - Overall, port inventories are likely to enter a destocking phase from mid - December this year to early January next year, driving up methanol prices. However, considering that the price of downstream polyolefins is unlikely to rise significantly, the increase in methanol prices is expected to be limited. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish. It is recommended to pay attention to the strategy of going long on methanol and short on polyolefins. [3] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Supply: Domestic开工小降,产量预期小幅走弱 - **Production Profit**: Coal - to - methanol production profits continue to weaken. [6] - **Domestic开工&产量**: In December, domestic plant maintenance mainly involves the southwest production area. Affected by gas restrictions, the start - up of natural gas - to - methanol plants drags down the overall domestic methanol start - up rate, which may drop to around 83%. [3][12] - **Import Profit&Foreign Supply**: A large - scale shutdown of Iranian plants occurred at the end of November. It is expected that the methanol loading volume in Iran will decrease significantly in December. [15] - **Import&Arrival Volume**: Due to the shutdown of Iranian plants at the end of November, the methanol loading volume in Iran is expected to drop significantly in December. Conventionally, China's methanol imports will show a seasonal decline in January. [3][22] 3.2 Demand: MTO需求有支撑 - **Downstream Gross Margin**: As methanol prices weaken, olefin profits have recovered, but there is an expectation of subsequent weakening. [26][32] - **Downstream Start - up Rate**: The Ningbo Fude plant is scheduled for maintenance in December. However, the restart of Shandong Yangmei's plants and the launch of Shandong Lianhong's new plant at the end of the year are expected to increase the total olefin demand. The start - up rate of traditional downstream acetic acid plants will gradually recover to 80 - 90% after the end of maintenance in December. [3][37] 3.3 Inventory:预计港口库存边际走弱 - **Total Inventory**: The overall inventory is expected to enter a destocking phase. [46] - **Inland Inventory**: With the increase in downstream external procurement, inland inventory has decreased month - on - month. [49] - **Port Inventory**: The shutdown of Iranian plants will lead to a significant drop in arrivals from mid - December to January. With the high load of MTO plants in the East China region, port inventories are likely to enter a destocking phase from mid - December this year to early January next year. [56] 3.4 Spread:基差走强 - **Domestic Regional Spread**: Multiple domestic regional spreads are presented in the report, including spreads between different regions such as Shandong and Inner Mongolia. [63][66][69] - **Domestic Freight**: Freight rates between different domestic regions are shown, such as from Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi to Shandong. [72][75] - **Domestic Logistics Window**: Information on the domestic logistics window is provided, including the spread between Shanxi and Shandong. [79] - **Internal - External Spread**: Spreads between China and other regions such as Southeast Asia, India, Europe, and the United States are presented. [81][82] 3.5 Warehouse Receipts:较上月小幅下降 - The number of warehouse receipts has decreased slightly compared to last month. [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the methanol industry is a weak and volatile outlook [2] Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the overall supply of methanol was abundant, with high inventory levels and slow de - stocking, exerting significant downward pressure on prices. The demand was weak and differentiated, providing only limited support to the market. Although the cost side was supported by relatively strong raw materials, the production profit was under pressure, and the support was limited. The market sentiment was generally cautious, and the short - term price was likely to continue the weak and volatile pattern. It is recommended to wait and see or seek opportunities within a certain range instead of aggressively short - selling [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - This week, the domestic methanol supply remained abundant. The industry's operating load increased slightly, especially in the Northwest region. The capacity utilization rates of mainstream production processes such as coal - based and coke - oven gas - based methanol increased. Although some plants were newly shut down or continued to be out of operation, more plants resumed production, and the overall output showed an upward trend. The import volume was stable, and the port arrivals were sufficient. Coupled with the high previous inventory, the market supply was well - supported. Inland enterprises were eager to sell, and the flow of goods between ports and inland areas was smooth [2] Demand - This week, the downstream demand for methanol was generally weak and differentiated. The demand from the main downstream olefin (CTO/MTO) sector had some local support, and the purchasing willingness of some enterprises increased slightly. However, the overall industry operation did not improve significantly, and the incremental consumption of methanol was limited. The traditional downstream sectors performed differently. The operating loads of formaldehyde and MTBE increased slightly, while those of dimethyl ether and acetic acid decreased, and DMF remained stable. Most traditional products only met their rigid demand and had a weak willingness to increase purchases actively. The downstream buying interest at ports was insufficient, and although the local demand in inland areas improved slightly due to olefin procurement, it was not a widespread phenomenon. Overall, the demand side provided weak support to the methanol market [2] Inventory - This week, the methanol inventory was under high - level pressure. The port inventory remained at a historically high level. Although the unloading rhythm in some areas and the提货 volume in individual warehouses fluctuated slightly, the overall de - stocking speed was slow. With sufficient future arrivals, the port inventory pressure was not effectively relieved. The inventory in some ports in East China increased slightly, and that in South China adjusted slightly. The inland market inventory was differentiated. Most enterprises' inventories accumulated, while only a few regions saw a slight decline in inventory due to supply reduction caused by plant maintenance. Affected by sufficient supply, weak demand, and the back - flow of low - priced port goods, inland enterprises faced difficulties in selling, and the overall inventory remained at a relatively high level [2] Profit - This week, the overall profit of methanol was under pressure, and different production processes showed different performances. The profit of coal - based methanol shrank significantly as the rising price of raw coal pushed up production costs while the spot price of methanol declined, squeezing the profit margin. The profit of coke - oven gas - based methanol also decreased, and the loss of natural - gas - based methanol widened. The cost pressure was continuously transmitted to the production end. The profit of downstream sectors improved locally. Some products saw a slight improvement in profit due to the decline in methanol prices or their own supply - demand adjustments, but most downstream industries were still in the loss range, and the profit transmission in the entire industrial chain was not smooth, with no obvious improvement in the profitability [2] Macro and Geopolitical Factors - Iranian President Pezeshkian stated in a recent speech that the United States armed Israel while telling Iran not to have missiles or the right to self - defense. Iran does not want war but will not allow other countries to violate its rights. Pezeshkian also said that Iran has no intention of manufacturing nuclear weapons and is willing to negotiate within the framework of international law, but will not accept humiliation [2] Investment View - It is expected that the short - term price of methanol will continue the weak and volatile pattern. Attention should be paid to the inventory de - stocking rhythm and plant start - stop dynamics. It is not recommended to aggressively short - sell, and it is advisable to wait and see or seek opportunities within a certain range [2] Trading Strategy - For single - sided trading, it is recommended to wait and see with a bearish view; for arbitrage, it is also recommended to wait and see [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic methanol market is under significant supply pressure, with high domestic开工率 and production, and continuously high import volumes. The demand is weak, with most downstream industries'开工率 showing a continuous decline. Port methanol inventory is at an extremely high level, with tight tank capacity and rising floating storage. As a result, the methanol price may continue to seek support downward. Key factors to monitor include domestic port inventory and the operation of MTO devices [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Viewpoint and Strategy - For unilateral and options trading, adopt a bearish strategy. In options trading, sell call options [7]. - MA unilateral strategy: Short MA509. The price is under pressure and falling. As of November 06, the price of MA601 was 2,125 yuan/ton. The logic is high domestic production, record - high imports, average demand, and extremely high port inventory, leading to a bearish operation recommendation [11]. - PP - 3MA strategy: Short the PP - 3MA spread. The spread is in a rebound trend. As of November 06, the spread of the January contract was 96 yuan/ton. The logic is that the supply pressure of PP is greater than that of methanol, and MTO profit is under pressure. However, in the short term, methanol is bearish due to extremely high inventory. The operation recommendation is to short on rallies and wait and see for now [14]. 3.2 Methanol Supply and Demand Overview 3.2.1 Supply - Inventory: As of November 5, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 386,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,400 tons or 2.75%. The overall inventory shows a slight downward trend in some areas, but port inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. The port inventory was 1,517,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,600 tons or 0.70% [8][111][113]. - Production and Capacity Utilization: In November, the weekly data of China's methanol production is expected to be around 2,008,400 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of about 88.51%, an increase from the current period. From October 31 to November 6, 2025, the methanol production was 1,992,055 tons, a week - on - week increase of 26,860 tons, and the device capacity utilization rate was 87.79%, a week - on - week increase of 1.36% [8][69]. - Imports: The estimated arrival plan of methanol import samples is 436,100 tons, including 368,100 tons of visible imports and 68,000 tons of non - visible imports. From October 30 to November 5, 2025, the Chinese methanol sample arrival volume was 387,000 tons, including 345,800 tons of foreign vessels (232,000 tons of visible and 113,800 tons of non - visible) and 41,200 tons of domestic trade vessels [8][76]. - New Capacity in 2025: China's new methanol capacity in 2025 is about 8.6 million tons, with a capacity increase of about 8.4%. Most of the new devices are equipped with downstream facilities such as MTO, acetic acid, and BDO [78][79]. 3.2.2 Demand - MTO Industry: The MTO industry's开工率 is 90.6%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.37%. The load of olefin enterprises in East China was slightly adjusted, the load of Shandong Luxi was at a low level, and the load of Xinjiang Hengyou increased. After the offset, the olefin industry's开工 continued to decline this week [86]. - Traditional Downstream Industries: The traditional demand is poor, and the开工率 is low. The开工率 of formaldehyde, glacial acetic acid, and chloride industries is expected to rise, while the开工 rate of dimethyl ether is expected to remain flat [8][89]. - Downstream Procurement and Orders: As of November 5, 2025, the pending orders of sample enterprises were 221,100 tons, an increase of 5,500 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 2.57% [105]. - New Downstream Capacity: In 2025, there are new production capacities in various downstream industries such as methane chloride, glacial acetic acid, formaldehyde, and others [107]. 3.3 Price and Spread - Spot Price and Basis: As of November 06, the spot price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2,080 yuan/ton, and the basis relative to the January contract was - 45 yuan/ton [18]. - Domestic Spread and Freight: Data on the spread between Taicang and Inner Mongolia and the spread and freight between Inner Mongolia and Dongying are presented, but no specific analysis is provided in the summary part [19]. - International Methanol and Natural Gas Price: Data on international methanol prices (including Southeast Asia CFR, China CFR, and Rotterdam FOB) and international natural gas prices (including European and Henry Hub) are presented, but no specific analysis is provided in the summary part [23][25]. - Inter - contract Spread: Data on the spread between methanol 9 - 1, 1 - 5, and 5 - 9 contracts are presented, but no specific analysis is provided in the summary part [27][30]. - Related Product Ratio: Data on the ratio of methanol to urea and methanol to liquefied gas (based on the main contracts) are presented, but no specific analysis is provided in the summary part [34]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Profit - Import Profit: The import profit remains in a loss, currently at - 30 yuan/ton [8]. - Coal - based Methanol Production Profit: The loss of coal - based methanol production profit in Inner Mongolia has widened, currently at - 227 yuan/ton [8]. - Downstream Profit: The downstream profit is in a large loss. The profit of East China MTO remains in a loss, currently at - 808 yuan/ton [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September, domestic methanol supply will gradually recover, and imports will remain at a high level, but the marginal increase in overall supply is limited. Due to the improvement in profits, MTO plants are expected to resume production, and demand is expected to pick up in September. Overall, the marginal increase in supply is limited, demand will pick up marginally, and total inventory is expected to peak. Therefore, methanol prices are expected to enter a phased bottom - area, and investors should pay attention to buying opportunities on dips [3] 3. Summaries Based on the Table of Contents 3.1 Supply: 9 - month domestic start - up stabilizes, and output is expected to increase slightly - **Production Profit**: Coal - to - methanol profits fluctuated within a narrow range. For example, coal - to - methanol profits in Inner Mongolia and Shandong showed different trends over time [6][7][8] - **Domestic Production**: In August, the domestic start - up rate was slightly lower than in July, and production decreased by 290,000 tons. It is expected that production in September will recover to around 9.7 million tons [3] - **Import Profit and Foreign Supply**: Iranian plants were operating normally in August, and production is expected to be stable in September. The import volume increased significantly to around 1.8 million tons in August. As the India - China price spread widened significantly, the subsequent arrival volume is expected to peak, and the import volume in September is expected to remain high but with limited growth [3][15] 3.2 Demand: MTO plants have the expectation of resuming production, and demand is supported - **Downstream Margins**: As methanol prices weakened, downstream profits generally improved. It is expected that MTO plants will have a resumption plan in September. For example, the margins of acetic acid, MTO, formaldehyde, etc. showed different trends over time [27][33] - **Downstream Start - up Rates and Purchases**: The start - up rates of MTO, formaldehyde, MTBE, acetic acid, etc. showed different trends over time. Factory orders, MTO purchases, and traditional downstream purchases also had their own characteristics [39][40][43][44] 3.3 Inventory: It is expected that inventory will peak in September - **Total Inventory**: There was an unexpected inventory build - up, and it is expected that the total inventory will peak in September [45] - **Inland Inventory**: There were many refinery overhauls in August, and inventory was transferred to the social sector, but the actual inventory still increased [48] - **Port Inventory**: With a significant increase in arrival volume, port inventory quickly reached a five - year high [58] 3.4 Price Spreads: The basis fluctuated and strengthened - **Domestic Regional Price Spreads**: There were various domestic regional price spreads, such as the spreads between different regions like Lubei - Inner Mongolia North, Lubei - Inner Mongolia South, etc., which showed different trends over time [62][63][65] - **Domestic Freight Rates**: Freight rates between different regions, such as Inner Mongolia North - Lubei, Inner Mongolia South - Lubei, etc., also had their own trends [71][72] - **Domestic Logistics Windows**: The logistics window between Shanxi - Lubei showed certain fluctuations [79][80] - **Internal - External Price Spreads**: There were price spreads between Southeast Asia - China and India - China, which also changed over time [81] - **Basis and Calendar Spreads**: The basis fluctuated and strengthened. Calendar spreads such as 1 - 5, 5 - 9, and 9 - 1 also showed different trends [87][88][89] 3.5 Warehouse Receipts: Slightly increased compared to last month - The number of warehouse receipts showed a slight increase compared to the previous month [93]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rebound of domestic coking coal and coke prices and potential supply - side policies may boost market sentiment. Although the absolute value of port inventory is still low, production profit is good, domestic production and operating rate are still high, international methanol operating rate has rebounded to a high level, methanol imports have recovered, downstream profit is poor, downstream demand is under pressure, and inventory has increased. Therefore, methanol is likely to fluctuate. For single - side and option trading, the report suggests range - bound operations and selling straddle options [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Viewpoint and Strategy - **Inventory**: China's methanol sample production enterprise inventory reached 35.69 tons this week, a week - on - week increase of 0.46 tons or 1.31%. Port methanol inventory is expected to accumulate slightly [7]. - **Supply**: This week, China's methanol output is estimated to be around 191.93 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of about 85.17%. The import sample arrival plan is estimated at 32.60 tons, including 16.70 tons of visible and 15.90 tons of invisible imports, and domestic trade is estimated at 3.5 - 4.0 tons [7]. - **Demand**: This week, the overall start - up of the olefin industry slightly increased. The start - up rate of dimethyl ether remained flat, that of acetic acid increased, while those of formaldehyde and chloride decreased [7]. - **Industrial Chain Profit**: The import profit showed an inversion of - 43 yuan/ton. The profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia remained stable at 122 yuan/ton, while the downstream profit suffered large losses, with the profit loss of MTO in East China still being large at - 1131 yuan/ton [7]. - **Coal Price**: Some traders are bullish on the traditional coal - using peak season, but the port inventory is still high, and the oversupply situation is difficult to change in the short term [7]. - **Strategy**: For single - side trading, short MA509. For PP - 3MA, short the spread. In option trading, sell straddle options [7][10][11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Prices - **Spot Price**: As of July 10, the spot price of methanol in Taicang, Jiangsu was 2390 yuan/ton [15]. - **Basis**: As of July 10, the basis relative to the September contract was - 8 yuan/ton [15]. 3.3 Supply - side - **Capacity Utilization and Output**: Last week (20250704 - 0710), China's methanol output was 1909928 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 77148 tons, and the device capacity utilization rate was 84.75%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.89% [66]. - **International Operating Rate and Imports**: As of July 9, 2025, the Chinese methanol sample arrival volume was 31.03 tons, including 26.42 tons of foreign vessels and 4.61 tons of domestic trade vessels [71]. - **New Capacity in 2025**: In 2025, China's new methanol capacity is about 860 tons, with a capacity increase of about 8.4%. Overseas, the new methanol capacity is expected to be 505 tons [73][74]. 3.4 Demand - side - **Apparent Consumption**: From January to May, the apparent consumption of methanol was 4577 tons, an increase of 7.6% [78]. - **Methanol - to - Olefin Operating Rate and Output**: Last week, the MTO operating rate was 85.94%, a week - on - week increase of 0.55% [82]. - **Traditional Downstream Operating Rate**: The operating rates of different traditional downstream products showed different trends, such as formaldehyde, acetic acid, MTBE, and dimethyl ether [83][86]. - **Downstream Purchasing Volume**: No specific data summary was provided, but relevant charts were presented [90]. - **Production Enterprise Order Volume**: As of July 9, 2025, the sample enterprise's pending order volume was 22.12 tons, a decrease of 2.00 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 8.29% [98]. - **New Downstream Capacity**: In 2025, the new downstream capacity of methanol is mainly concentrated in the olefin field, with an estimated new olefin capacity of 236 tons and a theoretical new methanol demand of 660 tons. For traditional downstream, the new capacity is mainly in acetic acid and MTBE, with a theoretical new methanol demand of 587 tons [100]. 3.5 Inventory - **Enterprise Inventory**: As of July 9, 2025, China's methanol sample production enterprise inventory was 35.23 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.07 tons or 3.14% [104]. - **Port Inventory**: As of July 9, 2025, the Chinese methanol port sample inventory was 71.89 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.52 tons or 6.71% [107]. - **Port Floating Storage**: No specific data summary was provided, but relevant charts were presented [110].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The supply of methanol is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price of methanol lacks upward momentum due to the weak supply - demand situation and the narrowing theoretical operating range caused by the weak raw coal market [4][64]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - In May, the main contract 2509 of methanol futures first rose and then fell, showing a weak and volatile trend. The futures price at the end of the month was around 2,250 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of about 1%. The spot prices in Taicang and Inner Mongolia also decreased by 5% and 5.6% respectively compared to the end of last month [6]. - The basis of methanol in ports and inland areas weakened significantly. The port basis was around 60 yuan/ton at the end of the month, and the inland basis decreased by about 140 yuan/ton. The price difference between production and sales areas slightly expanded, but the arbitrage window remained closed [9]. - In May, the global methanol market mostly showed a weak trend. The CFR prices in China's main ports, Southeast Asia, Europe, and the US all declined, with decreases of 3.4%, 2.4%, 8.3%, and 6.1% respectively [14]. 2. Methanol Supply - Demand Analysis 2.1 High Supply in Production Areas and Potential Accumulation of Inland Inventory - In May, the domestic methanol device operating rate remained at a high level. The overall domestic methanol device operating load was 74.51%, 5 percentage points higher than the same period last year, and the operating load in the northwest region was 80.90%, nearly 5.44 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The domestic methanol output in May was about 7.24 million tons, a significant increase of 11% from the previous month [2][17]. - The inventory in inland areas has been low due to the external procurement of several methanol - to - olefin devices. However, as the inland production continues to increase, the inventory is expected to gradually accumulate, and the sales pressure will also increase, leading to a decrease in prices and a narrowing of corporate profits [19]. 2.2 Inventory Accumulation at Ports Has Reached a Turning Point - Iranian methanol devices restarted in mid - to - late March, increasing the quantity shipped to China. In April, China's methanol imports increased significantly, reaching 787,800 tons, a 66.54% increase from the previous month. In May, Iranian supplies continued to increase, but the import profit decreased as the Chinese spot price dropped. It is estimated that China's methanol imports in May were around 1.1 million tons [29]. - As of the end of May, the coastal methanol inventory was 639,500 tons, an increase of about 60,000 tons from the end of last month, a 10% month - on - month increase and a 19.49% year - on - year increase. It is expected that the import volume of coastal ports from the end of May to early June will be 790,000 tons, and the port inventory may gradually accumulate [30]. 2.3 Industrial Chain Situation - **International Natural Gas and Import Profit**: In May, international natural gas prices first decreased and then increased, and the international methanol production cost was around 1,780 yuan/ton, with a slight fluctuation in import cost [37]. - **Coal - to - Methanol Profit**: The domestic thermal coal market remained weak. As of the end of May, the price of Ordos Q5500 was around 420 yuan/ton, and the theoretical cost of northwest coal - to - methanol was around 1,680 yuan/ton. Although the profit of coal - to - methanol slightly decreased, it was still at a high level in recent years, and domestic supply may remain high [39]. - **MTO Device and Traditional Downstream**: By the end of May, the weighted operating rate of methanol downstream was about 75%, an increase of about 2.8 percentage points from the end of last month. The average operating load of methanol - to - olefin devices was 81.51%, an increase of over 4 percentage points from the previous month. Traditional downstream industries are entering the off - season, and the demand for methanol may decrease. However, the traditional downstream capacity is expanding, and if all planned new capacities are put into production, it will increase the demand for methanol by about 6.5 million tons [43][44].