Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury bonds have experienced a strong upward trend driven by safe-haven demand, with significant declines in yields across various maturities, indicating market expectations for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][4]. Group 1: Interest Rate Expectations - As of October 11, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October has risen to 98.3%, while the likelihood of a cumulative 50 basis point cut by December stands at 91.7% [4]. - Market pricing of OIS contracts suggests an expected rate cut of approximately 23 basis points in October, with a total of 46 basis points expected by year-end, reflecting an increase from the previous trading day [4]. Group 2: Contributing Factors - The recent rally in the bond market is attributed to multiple factors, including a significant drop in WTI crude oil prices by 4.2%, alleviating inflation concerns, and the strengthening of UK bonds providing additional support to U.S. Treasuries [5]. - Ongoing issues related to the U.S. government shutdown have delayed the release of key economic data, further enhancing market demand for safe-haven assets [5]. - The Labor Department has recalled some staff to prepare for the delayed release of September CPI data on October 24, coinciding with the Federal Reserve's policy meeting [5]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Officials' Stance - Federal Reserve Governor Waller has expressed support for continued rate cuts but emphasizes a cautious approach, advocating for a gradual reduction strategy due to conflicting signals from the labor market and persistent inflation above target levels [6]. - Newly appointed Governor Stephen Milan has proposed a more aggressive rate cut path, suggesting a one-time cut of 50 basis points and a total reduction of 125 basis points by year-end, although Waller warns against overly aggressive cuts due to potential risks [6]. - Prior to these statements, Waller was reported to be a candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair, indicating ongoing discussions focused on policy rather than political matters [6].

•瑞典北欧斯安银行策略师表示，货币市场目前定价美联储到2026年底将降息超过100个基点，考虑到通 胀风险，这可能过于激进。如果美联储确实满足这些市场预期，可能会为明年10年期美国国债收益率跌 至3.80%铺平道路。由于财政政策不太可能成为关键驱动因素，10年期美国国债收益率的上行风险主要 源于美联储提供的降息幅度少于市场目前的预期。 转自：新华财经 •瑞典北欧斯安银行： 美联储降息预期或过于激进 •法国兴业银行： 法德国债息差或企稳，政治风险仍支持防御性仓位 •花旗银行：美政府停摆掩盖风险，但美欧政策分化利好欧元兑美元 【机构分析】 •花旗认为，美国联邦政府停摆不仅可能造成持久经济损害，其导致的关键数据缺失还将掩盖真实风 险，延缓市场反应。而从长期看，一旦法国政治动荡平息，叠加美国利率面临下行压力，欧元兑美元的 前景有望迎来显著改善。尽管花旗意外指数显示欧洲经济数据普遍低于预期，但市场对欧洲央行利率路 径的定价仍显坚挺，OIS合约强烈暗示其宽松周期已结束。相比之下，市场预计美联储未来一年将降息 100个基点，凸显美欧货币政策前景的分化。 •潘森宏观分析师指出，受关税不确定性冲击出口及工业生产持续下滑影响，德 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market has priced in a 100% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, indicating strong investor confidence in this decision [1][3]. Group 1: Market Expectations - Recent trading activity in federal funds futures and OIS indicates heightened expectations for a rate cut, with the OIS rate dropping to around 4.08% [1]. - The market's bet on the total rate cut for the year has increased from 59 basis points to 62 basis points, suggesting that investors are not only confident about the September cut but are also anticipating further easing [1][3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Economic data suggests a gradual easing of inflation pressures and signs of a cooling labor market, providing the Fed with more operational flexibility [3]. - Global economic uncertainties, including trade policies and geopolitical events, may prompt the Fed to adopt a more accommodative stance to prevent excessive economic slowdown [3]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Short-term interest rate products, the bond market, and interest-sensitive stock sectors are likely to benefit directly from the rising expectations of a rate cut [4]. - Traders may engage in more hedging and speculative operations using interest rate futures and OIS contracts to lock in potential price volatility ahead of the September meeting [4]. Group 4: Potential Outcomes - If the Fed's statements align with market expectations, market volatility may remain manageable as prices have already absorbed the policy impact [3][4]. - Conversely, if the Fed adopts a more cautious stance, emphasizing data dependency or economic resilience, existing pricing may face adjustments, leading to short-term volatility [3][4].