机构：中邮证券 研究员：盛丽华/徐智敏 事件 公司发布25 年中期业绩公告，25H1 公司收入59.5 亿元，同比+50.6%，其中产品收入52.3 亿元，同比增 长37.3%。EBITDA 为14 亿元，净利润为12 亿元，在手现金146 亿元。 投资要点 双轮驱动助力收入高增。产品层面来看，公司现有16 款商业化品种，肿瘤和综合管线双轮驱动。肿瘤 管线来看，公司持续巩固国内领先地位，达伯舒中国PD-(L)1 市场市占率第一，2 项NDA+NSCLC 的围 手术期治疗三期提供未来增长动力。同时三款靶向药上市（ROS1、EGFR TKI、BTK 抑制剂）凸显协 同效应。公司综合管线慢病商业化顺利启航，PCSK9 单抗系国内首个进医保的PCSK9 单抗、IGF-1R 和 GCG/GLP-1 成功上市/获批，为国内同类的首个药物。 运营效率优化盈利持续攀升。公司2024H1/2024H2/2025H1 的EBITDA 分别为-1.6/5.7/14.1 亿元，净利润 为-1.6/4.9/12.1 亿元，盈利持续攀升。25H1 来看，公司运营效率进一步提升：毛利率86.8%，同比 +2.7pct，销售及管理费率44. ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated significant revenue growth, with a 50.6% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first half of 2025, reaching 5.95 billion yuan, driven by strong performance in its oncology and chronic disease product lines [4][5]. - The company is focusing on a global strategy, with the approval of IBI363 for a pivotal Phase III clinical trial, indicating its commitment to innovation and market expansion [6][8]. - The financial outlook is positive, with projected net profits increasing significantly from 979 million yuan in 2025 to 3.25 billion yuan by 2027, reflecting a robust growth trajectory [10][11]. Company Overview - The latest closing price is 104.70 HKD, with a total market capitalization of 179.4 billion HKD [3]. - The company has a debt-to-asset ratio of 38.88% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 144.43, indicating a relatively high valuation compared to its earnings [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow from 9.42 billion yuan in 2024 to 21.16 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 34% [10]. - EBITDA is projected to increase from 409 million yuan in 2024 to 4.83 billion yuan in 2027, showcasing improved operational efficiency [10]. - The company anticipates a significant turnaround in net profit, moving from a loss of 95 million yuan in 2024 to a profit of 3.25 billion yuan in 2027 [10][11]. Investment Thesis - The company is well-positioned in the domestic oncology market, with a diverse product pipeline that is expected to drive sustained high growth [8]. - The focus on innovation and the development of first-in-class and best-in-class products provide a strong foundation for long-term growth [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2][9]. Core Insights - The company reported strong product revenue growth in Q1 2025, exceeding RMB 2.4 billion, which represents a year-on-year increase of 41% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 13% [3][14]. - The commercial product portfolio has expanded to 15 products, with four new drugs launched in Q1 2025 [14][15]. - Upcoming approvals for innovative products are expected to drive further revenue growth throughout 2025 [3][19]. Financial Performance - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 11.86 billion, RMB 14.34 billion, and RMB 18.09 billion, respectively, indicating year-on-year growth rates of 31%, 20%, and 26% [9][19]. - The company is expected to turn profitable in 2025, achieving a net profit of RMB 380 million [19][12]. - Gross profit margins are projected to remain strong, with estimates of 83.7% in 2025 and increasing to 88.0% by 2027 [12][19]. Product and R&D Developments - The company has launched four new drugs in Q1 2025, including IBI-344 (ROS1) and Limertinib (EGFR TKI) [14][15]. - The R&D pipeline is robust, with expectations for at least five new assets to enter global multi-regional clinical trials by 2030 [16][19]. - Key upcoming events include data updates for various clinical trials at major conferences, which are anticipated to enhance the company's market position [17][18]. Valuation - The target price for the company's stock has been revised to HKD 62.5 per share, based on a DCF model with a WACC of 9.8% and a terminal growth rate of 3.5% [9][19].