化工日报 | 2026-02-04 长丝价格坚挺，产销维持低位 市场要闻与数据 无 市场分析 成本端，近期仍围绕伊朗局势波动。周一原油大幅下跌，地缘溢价回吐，Brent油价从上月末的70美元/桶附近下跌 至65~66美元/桶附近。上周末美伊释放出进行和谈的信号，同时伊朗官员表示，有关伊朗革命卫队计划在霍尔木兹 海峡举行军事演习的媒体报道是错误的，显示出地缘风险有降温信号。 PX方面，上上个交易日PXN310美元/吨(环比变动-6.88美元/吨）。近期PX基本面未有明显变动，实货浮动价略有反 弹，PXN在近端累库下回撤。近期PX效益提升带来供应增加预期，另外内外盘套利会带来更多进口，同时需求端 检修计划陆续兑现，现实基本面偏弱。但PX中期预期依然较好，利润修复会带来PX二季度检修计划取消或推迟的 逻辑难证实，关注PX检修兑现和进口情况。 TA方面，TA主力合约现货基差 -68元/吨 元/吨(环比变动+3元/吨），PTA现货加工费376元/吨（环比变动-48元/吨）， 主力合约盘面加工费423元/吨（环比变动+21元/吨），基本面方面，聚酯工厂春节减产计划陆续兑现，PTA近端供 需趋累。中长期随着产能集中投放周期 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The recent rebound in crude oil is mainly driven by passive buying of crude oil due to commodity index rebalancing, with geopolitical sentiment premiums also contributing. Attention should be paid to the situation in Iran [1]. - In the PX market, after a significant improvement in PX profitability, domestic and foreign PX plants have increased production. PXN has retreated due to a weakening fundamental outlook, but the medium - term outlook remains positive and is currently difficult to disprove [1]. - For TA, the inventory build - up pressure in January is not significant. In the long - term, as the cycle of concentrated capacity expansion ends, PTA processing fees are expected to further improve [1]. - In terms of demand, the polyester operating rate is 90.8% (a 0.9% month - on - month increase), while the weaving load continues to decline. The polyester load will decrease around the Spring Festival, and the average load in January is expected to drop to around 88% [2]. - For PF, production profit is weak, and the processing margin fluctuates weakly under weakening demand [2][3]. - For PR, bottle - chip processing fees are expected to maintain range - bound fluctuations [2][3]. Summary by Directory I. Price and Basis - The report presents figures on TA and PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spreads, as well as PTA East China spot basis and short - fiber basis [9][10][12]. II. Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures show PX processing fees (PXN), PTA spot processing fees, South Korean xylene isomerization profits, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profits [17][21]. III. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - The report includes figures on toluene spreads between the US and Asia, toluene spreads in South Korea and Japan, and PTA export profits [23][25]. IV. Upstream PX and PTA Operation - Figures display the operating rates of PTA and PX plants in China, South Korea, and Taiwan [26][29][31]. V. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Data on PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, and various types of warehouse receipts are provided [36][39][40]. VI. Downstream Polyester Load - Information on filament and short - fiber sales, polyester load, and related factory profits and inventory days is presented [47][49][57]. VII. PF Detailed Data - Figures cover 1.4D physical and equity inventories, polyester staple fiber load, and related production data and spreads [71][72][77]. VIII. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Data on polyester bottle - chip load, inventory days, processing fees, export profits, and inter - period spreads are provided [87][89][94].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Cost side: Due to the escalation of geopolitical conflicts, crude oil has rebounded. Although the downward pressure on oil prices is still significant in Q1 next year, recent factors such as overseas holidays and commodity index fund rebalancing at the beginning of the year may cause disturbances to the market. The PXN of PX has increased significantly, and the load can be effectively maintained. The contango has strengthened recently, and the outlook for Q2 next year is good. The gasoline cracking spread has not improved significantly, but the US aromatics stockpiling has started [1]. - TA: The basis of the spot market has gradually strengthened. The December balance sheet shows inventory reduction, and there is no pressure for inventory accumulation in January. In the long run, the PTA processing fee is expected to gradually improve [2]. - Demand: The polyester开工率 is 91.1% (down 0.1% month - on - month). The weaving load is accelerating its decline. It is expected that the starting rate will further decline in mid - December. The polyester load is expected to remain around 91% in the short term and is expected to decline around January [2]. - PF: The spot production profit is 90 yuan/ton (down 17 yuan/ton month - on - month). The fundamentals have not changed much, but the processing margin is facing compression. The demand side shows average sales [3]. - PR: The spot processing fee is 476 yuan/ton (down 43 yuan/ton month - on - month). The processing range has been compressed. The load has rebounded as the inventory has decreased. The supply may increase in the future, and the short - term processing range is expected to be limited [3]. - Strategy: Be cautiously bullish on PX/PTA/PF/PR, but be vigilant against the risk of price pull - back due to capital reduction. For PX/PTA/PF/PR, pay attention to the change in polyester load. For PTA, conduct a 5 - 9 contango arbitrage [4][5]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Include TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber basis [10][11][13] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Include PX processing fee (PXN), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [19][24] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Include toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [27][29] Upstream PX and PTA Startup - Include China's PTA load, South Korea's PTA load, Taiwan's PTA load, China's PX load, and Asia's PX load [30][33][37] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Include PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [39][41][42] Downstream Polyester Load - Include filament sales, short - fiber sales, polyester load, direct - spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom starting rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing starting rate, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing starting rate [50][52][61] PF Detailed Data - Include polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled spread, pure polyester yarn starting rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn starting rate, polyester - cotton yarn processing fee, pure polyester yarn factory inventory available days, and polyester - cotton yarn factory inventory available days [70][74][79] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Include polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory bottle - chip inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East China water bottle - chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chip spread, bottle - chip next - month spread, and bottle - chip next - next - month spread [88][95][96]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious and moderately bullish stance on PX/PTA/PF/PR. For the 01 contract, the upside potential may be limited, and it is recommended to focus on the 05 contract in the medium to long term [3]. Core Viewpoints - The market is currently in a state of seasonal weakening in demand and is oscillating. The cost side, with Brent oil prices ranging from $60 - $65 per barrel, is affected by the progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks and the situation in Venezuela. Market sentiment is wait - and - see, and oil prices are maintaining an oscillating pattern. In the PX market, PXN has expanded to $286 per ton this week, and although some factory reforming operations may fluctuate, PX load can still be effectively maintained. For PTA, with many near - term maintenance plans and increased export demand, there is a slight reduction in inventory and a rebound in the basis. In the medium to long term, after the end of the concentrated capacity release cycle, PTA processing fees are expected to gradually improve. In the demand aspect, the polyester operating rate is 91.8% (up 0.3% month - on - month), but the weaving load has declined, and it is expected that the operating rate will further decline from late December. For PF, the production profit is $193 per ton (down $1 per ton month - on - month), with high load and low inventory. For PR, the bottle - chip spot processing fee is $490 per ton (up $27 per ton month - on - month), and due to the off - season demand and high social inventory, the processing fee is expected to oscillate [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price and Basis - Relevant figures include the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [7][8][10]. 2. Upstream Profits and Spreads - The figures cover PX processing fee PXN (PX China CFR - naphtha Japan CFR), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [15][18]. 3. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - The relevant figures are the toluene US - Asia spread (FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea), toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [23][25]. 4. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show the PTA load in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the PX load in China and Asia [26][29][30]. 5. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Relevant figures include PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse warehouse receipts inventory, PX warehouse receipts inventory, and PF warehouse receipts inventory [34][37][38]. 6. Downstream Polyester Load - Figures cover filament sales, short - fiber sales, polyester load, direct - spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operating rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine operating rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing operating rate, and filament profit [46][48][57]. 7. PF Detailed Data - The figures include polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled spread, pure polyester yarn operating rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operating rate, polyester - cotton yarn processing fee, pure polyester yarn factory inventory available days, and polyester - cotton yarn factory inventory available days [67][71][82]. 8. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Relevant figures are polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory bottle - chip inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East China water bottle - chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chip, bottle - chip next - month spread, and bottle - chip next - next - month spread [88][94][97].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - **Black Industry**: Iron ore, coal coke, rolled steel, and glass are rated as "High - level Volatility"; Rebar (RB2601) and Iron Ore (I2601) suggest a strategy of "Long RB2601, Short I2601" [2] - **Financial Industry**: Shanghai Composite 50 is rated as "Rebound"; CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are rated as "Volatility"; 2 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year treasury bonds are rated as "Volatility" (10 - year is "Decline"); Gold is rated as "High - level Volatility"; Silver is rated as "High - level Decline" [2][4] - **Light Industry**: Pulp is rated as "Correction"; Logs are rated as "Volatility"; Oils and Fats (including soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil) are rated as "Volatility with an Uptrend Bias"; Meal (including soybean meal and rapeseed meal), soybean No.2, and soybean No.1 are rated as "Volatility" [5] - **Agricultural Products**: Live pigs are rated as "Volatility with a Downtrend Bias" [8] - **Soft Commodities**: Rubber is rated as "Volatility"; PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF are rated as "Wait - and - See" [10][11][12] 2. Core Views - The overall performance of the Politburo meeting fell short of expectations, which may lead to a continued weakening of market trading enthusiasm. Policy - related production cuts and restrictions in the future need to be closely watched [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized efforts to stabilize employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations in the second half of the year, and to promote investment and consumption [4] - The logic driving the rise in gold prices has not completely reversed, but short - term fluctuations may be affected by the Fed's interest rate and tariff policies [4] 3. Summary by Industry Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: Global iron ore shipments are increasing, and supply remains abundant. Although recent arrivals have declined, they are expected to rebound seasonally. Iron ore fundamentals are currently stable, but there are risks of policy - driven production cuts and restrictions. A strategy of "Long RB2601, Short I2601" is recommended [2] - **Coal Coke**: The exchange has adjusted the trading limit for coking coal due to recent sharp price increases. The supply of coking coal is recovering slowly, and the downstream's willingness to accept high - priced resources has decreased. Coke has seen four consecutive rounds of price increases, and there is an expectation of a fifth round [2] - **Rolled Steel**: In the off - season, building material demand has declined, and steel inventories have started to rise from a low level. The short - term steel industry still has expectations of stable growth, and the same "Long RB2601, Short I2601" strategy is recommended [2] - **Glass**: Supply remains low, and market sentiment has improved, leading to increased downstream stocking. However, real - estate demand is still weak, and long - term demand is difficult to recover significantly [2] Financial Industry - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: The previous trading day saw declines in major stock indices. The National Development and Reform Commission's meeting emphasized efforts to achieve annual goals. Market upward momentum has weakened, and it is recommended to reduce long positions in stock indices [4] - **Treasury Bonds**: Yields on 10 - year treasury bonds have declined, and the central bank has conducted reverse repurchase operations. Market interest rates have rebounded, and it is recommended to hold long positions in treasury bonds lightly [4] - **Precious Metals**: Gold is affected by multiple factors such as currency, finance, and geopolitics. Although there are short - term pressures, the upward - driving logic has not reversed. Silver has declined due to factors such as the Fed's non - interest - rate - cut decision and hawkish remarks [4] Light Industry - **Pulp**: The cost of pulp has decreased, and the paper - making industry's demand is in the off - season. The supply - demand situation is weak, and pulp prices are expected to correct [6] - **Logs**: Log demand is in the off - season, but furniture exports are favorable. The cost of logs is rising, and supply pressure is not significant. Log prices are expected to remain stable with some volatility [6] - **Oils and Fats**: The production of Malaysian palm oil may slow down, and demand is recovering. Domestic oil inventories are increasing. Oils and fats are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias, and attention should be paid to soybean weather and palm oil production and sales [6] - **Meal**: The supply of soybean meal is abundant, and demand is weak. However, weather conditions in the US soybean - growing areas may provide some support, and soybean meal prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [6] - **Soybean No.2 and Soybean No.1**: Supply is sufficient, and prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with attention to US soybean weather, soybean arrivals, and Sino - US trade negotiations [6] Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: The average trading weight of live pigs is decreasing, and the supply of live pigs is increasing. High - temperature weather restricts consumption demand, and slaughterhouse operating rates are expected to decline slightly, with pig prices likely to fall week - on - week [8] Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: Supply is affected by weather and the Thai - Cambodian conflict, and demand from the tire industry is mixed. Rubber inventories at Qingdao Port are decreasing, and rubber prices are expected to remain firm [10][11] - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF**: PX supply is tight in the short term, and prices follow oil prices. PTA supply recovery is slow, and demand is weakening. MEG supply pressure is increasing. PR and PF are facing cost and demand challenges, and all are in a wait - and - see situation [10][11][12]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The recent strong trend of crude oil prices supports the prices of PX and PTA, mainly driven by geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East. The polyester load remains strong despite the production - cut plan [1]. - In the cost - end, the oil price has risen sharply due to the intensification of the conflict between Israel and Iran. If the conflict affects energy facilities and the Strait of Hormuz, the oil price may rise further; otherwise, the geopolitical premium may decline [2]. - The gasoline cracking spread in the US has declined, and the blending demand is limited. The short - process PX plants may restart as the profit recovers [2]. - With the end of the centralized maintenance period and profit repair, the PX load has increased, and the PXN has declined. The PX load will drop again in July, and attention should be paid to whether the supply - demand tightness continues [2]. - As PTA devices are gradually restarted, the supply becomes more abundant, and the processing fee is compressed. The PTA price is expected to fluctuate following the cost - end, depending on the development of the Israel - Iran situation [3]. - The polyester start - up rate has slightly declined, terminal orders have weakened again, and the demand is expected to be weak in the off - season. Attention should be paid to further production - cut actions after the raw material price rebound [3]. - The short - fiber price will remain high due to low inventory and maintenance of processing margins. Traders have sold most of the June contracts in advance and will hold a small amount of inventory later [3]. - The processing fee of polyester bottle - chips has increased, but the inventory pressure has risen again due to high sea - freight in June. Attention should be paid to the implementation of production - cut plans and container freight changes [4]. - In the short term, PX, PTA, PF, and PR are bullish under the Israel - Iran conflict. As the devices restart and the polyester load declines, the fundamentals will weaken marginally. Attention should be paid to further production - cut actions and the evolution of geopolitical conflicts [5]. Summary by Directory I. Price and Basis - The report includes figures on the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber basis [10][11][13] II. Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures cover PX processing fee (PXN), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [18][21] III. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - It involves figures on the toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR spread, and PTA export profit [26][28] IV. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show the PTA load in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the PX load in China and Asia [29][32][34] V. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures include PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecasts, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [37][40][41] VI. Downstream Polyester Load - Figures cover filament sales, short - fiber sales, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, and the operating rates of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms, texturing machines, and dyeing machines [49][51][53] VII. PF Detailed Data - It includes figures on polyester staple fiber load, factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical and equity inventory, regenerated cotton - type staple fiber load, original - regenerated spread, pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn operating rates, and production profits [73][83][85] VIII. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures show polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, spot and export processing fees, export profit, price difference between East China water bottle - chips and regenerated 3A - grade white bottle - chips, and month - to - month spreads [93][95][102]