Market Overview - In July, the net outflow of broad-based ETFs reached 85.2 billion CNY, continuing the trend from June[12] - The net outflow from the CSI A500 ETF was particularly significant, totaling 41.2 billion CNY, indicating profit-taking by institutional investors as the index approached its October 2024 high[12] - The net inflow for industry ETFs was 11.82 billion CNY, with financial real estate and cyclical manufacturing ETFs being the primary contributors, attracting 6.61 billion CNY and 5.46 billion CNY respectively[16] Bond Market - In July, large commercial banks and policy banks net purchased 305.5 billion CNY in interest rate bonds, a significant increase from 37.4 billion CNY in June[34] - Conversely, the net selling of interest rate bonds by joint-stock banks reached 471.3 billion CNY, up from 406.3 billion CNY in June[34] - Insurance companies increased their net purchases of interest rate bonds to 199 billion CNY, focusing on long-term bonds[37] Commodity Market - The gold ETF experienced a net outflow of 1.57 billion CNY in July, marking a shift from previous inflows[41] - Energy and soybean meal ETFs also saw net outflows of 0.11 billion CNY and 1.38 billion CNY respectively, while non-ferrous metal ETFs maintained a net inflow of 0.175 billion CNY[41] Liquidity and Monetary Policy - The central bank maintained a net injection of 236.5 billion CNY in July, utilizing various monetary policy tools without adjusting reserve requirements or interest rates[46] - The central bank's operations included a notable 200 billion CNY in medium-term lending facility (MLF) to stabilize the funding environment[46] Risk Factors - Key risks include escalating geopolitical tensions, domestic macroeconomic policies falling short of expectations, and potential economic downturns abroad[49]

展望后市，新世纪期货表示，房地产行业整体仍处于调整周期，房屋竣工面积同比下降较多，玻璃需求 难以大幅回升。近期交易重心在"反内卷+稳增长"，短期情绪释放后盘面再度调整下，后期需关注现实 需求能否好转。 需求端，瑞达期货（002961）分析称，当前地产形势不容乐观，房地产依旧表现低迷，下游深加工订单 小幅抬升，采购以刚需为主，汽车玻璃厂备货量增加难以抵消地产相关需求疲软，汽车增长边际减弱， 临近旺季，市场有望开启补库预期。光伏玻璃需求也面临库存压力。 库存方面，截止8月14日，全国浮法玻璃样本企业总库存6342.6万重箱，创1个月新高，环比增加157.9万 重箱或2.55%，同比降幅收窄至5.94%，折库存天数27.1天，较上期增加0.7天。 8月15日，国内期市能化板块有涨有跌。其中，玻璃期货呈现震荡下行走势，截至发稿主力合约报 1209.00元/吨，小幅下跌0.49%。 供应端来看，建信期货指出，截至2025年8月8日，全国浮法玻璃日熔量为15.96万吨；产能利用率 79.78%，创年内新高。冷修产线日熔量2.14万吨，若价格跌破1100元/吨的煤制成本线，冷修规模可能 进一步扩大。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: High-level oscillation [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillation with a bullish bias [2] - Rolled steel: High-level oscillation [2] - Glass: Adjustment [2] - Soda ash: Adjustment [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index: Oscillation [3] - CSI 500 Index: Oscillation [3] - CSI 1000 Index: Upward movement [3] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [3] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [3] - 10-year Treasury bond: Upward movement [3] - Gold: High-level oscillation [3][6] - Silver: High-level oscillation [6] - Pulp: Consolidation [6] - Logs: Oscillation [6] - Soybean oil: Oscillation with a bullish bias [4][6] - Palm oil: Oscillation with a bullish bias [4][6] - Rapeseed oil: Oscillation with a bullish bias [4][6] - Soybean meal: Oscillation [4][7] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillation [4][7] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillation [7] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillation [7] - Live pigs: Oscillation with a bearish bias [7] - Rubber: Oscillation [8] - PX: Wait-and-see [8] - PTA: Wait-and-see [8] - MEG: Wait-and-see [8] - PR: Wait-and-see [8][10] - PF: Wait-and-see [10] Core Viewpoints - In the black industry, short-term manufacturing recovery is interrupted, and policy expectations are falsified. There are risks of production cuts and restrictions in the future. One can try to go long on RB2601 and short on I2601 contracts at low levels [2] - In the financial industry, the market has rebounded continuously, and risk appetite has recovered. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures lightly. The government bond market has declined, and long positions in government bonds should also be held lightly [3] - In the precious metals industry, the logic driving the rise in gold prices has not completely reversed. Gold is expected to maintain high-level oscillation [3][6] - In the light industry and agricultural products industries, the supply and demand of pulp are both weak, and prices are expected to consolidate. The fundamentals of logs are favorable, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range. The supply of livestock products is increasing, and consumption is restricted by high temperatures, with prices expected to fall [4][6][7] - In the soft commodities and polyester industries, the supply of natural rubber is affected by weather, and demand shows a differentiated trend. The prices of polyester products are mainly affected by cost and demand, and the market is in a wait-and-see state [8][10] Summary by Category Black Industry - **Iron ore**: Short-term manufacturing recovery is interrupted, and policy expectations are falsified. The total global iron ore shipment volume has decreased, and the arrival volume has increased significantly. Iron ore fundamentals are currently acceptable, but there are risks of production cuts and restrictions in the future. One can try to go long on RB2601 and short on I2601 contracts at low levels [2] - **Coking coal and coke**: Coal mine overproduction inspections have tightened the supply of coking coal, and transportation disruptions have affected the arrival of coke at steel mills. The black futures market is oscillating strongly, and the coke spot market is slightly short of supply. Coke prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall [2] - **Rolled steel**: After the Politburo meeting, the market's speculation sentiment has cooled, and the trading logic has returned to fundamentals. In the off-season, steel demand has decreased, and the overall demand has a pattern of high in the front and low in the back. Steel market supply and demand pressure may increase [2] - **Glass**: After the Politburo meeting, the market's speculation sentiment has cooled, and the trading logic has returned to fundamentals. Glass production capacity is stable, and downstream inventory has room to replenish, but demand has not recovered. In the long term, glass demand is difficult to rebound significantly [2] Financial Industry - **Stock index futures/options**: The market has rebounded continuously, and risk appetite has recovered. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures lightly [3] - **Government bonds**: The market interest rate has rebounded, and the government bond market has declined. Long positions in government bonds should be held lightly [3] Precious Metals Industry - **Gold**: The pricing mechanism of gold is changing, and central bank gold purchases are the key. The currency, financial, and risk-hedging attributes of gold all support its price. The logic driving the rise in gold prices has not completely reversed, and gold is expected to maintain high-level oscillation [3][6] - **Silver**: The short-term employment data in the US is weak, and the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has increased, boosting the price of silver. Silver is also expected to maintain high-level oscillation [6] Light Industry and Agricultural Products Industries - **Pulp**: The cost price decline weakens the support for pulp prices. The papermaking industry's profitability is low, and demand is in the off-season. The supply and demand of pulp are both weak, and prices are expected to consolidate [6] - **Logs**: The demand for logs has increased slightly, and the supply center has shifted downward. The supply pressure is not large, and the cost support has increased. Log prices are expected to oscillate within a range [6] - **Oils and fats**: The production of palm oil may slow down, and inventory may continue to accumulate. The import volume of soybeans in China is high, and the inventory of oils and fats is at a high level. The demand is warming up. Oils and fats are expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [4][6] - **Livestock products**: The average trading weight of live pigs is decreasing, and the supply is increasing. High temperatures restrict consumption, and the opening rate of slaughtering enterprises is decreasing. Pig prices are expected to decline [7] Soft Commodities and Polyester Industries - **Natural rubber**: The supply of natural rubber is affected by weather, and raw material prices have risen. The demand for tires shows a differentiated trend, and inventory has decreased. Natural rubber prices are expected to remain firm [8] - **Polyester products**: The prices of polyester products are mainly affected by cost and demand. The market is in a wait-and-see state, with prices mainly fluctuating with cost [8][10]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - **Black Industry**: Iron ore - High-level oscillation; Coal and Coke - Oscillation with an upward bias; Rebar - High-level oscillation; Glass - Adjustment; Soda Ash - Adjustment [2] - **Financial Industry**: Shanghai Composite 50 - Rebound; CSI 300 - Oscillation; CSI 500 - Oscillation; CSI 1000 - Upward movement; 2-year Treasury Bond - Oscillation; 5-year Treasury Bond - Oscillation; 10-year Treasury Bond - Upward movement; Gold - High-level oscillation; Silver - High-level oscillation [2][3] - **Light Industry**: Pulp - Weak operation; Logs - Oscillation; Edible Oils - Oscillation with an upward bias; Meal - Oscillation; Soybean No. 2 - Oscillation; Soybean No. 1 - Oscillation; Live Pigs - Oscillation with a downward bias [5][6][7] - **Soft Commodities**: Rubber - Oscillation; PX - Watch; PTA - Watch; MEG - Watch; PR - Watch; PF - Watch [10][11] 2. Core Views - The short - term manufacturing recovery in the iron ore market has been interrupted, and the demand may be suppressed during the environmental protection production restrictions in the north. One can try to go long on RB2601 and short on I2601 contracts [2] - The coal and coke market has large price fluctuations. The supply of coking coal recovers slowly, and the profit of coke enterprises has improved. Attention should be paid to the supply and demand dynamics [2] - The trading logic of the steel and glass markets has returned to fundamentals. The overall demand is weak, and the inventory may accumulate. The short - term steel products are supported by policies [2] - The stock index market has rebounded, and the risk preference has recovered. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures lightly. The bond market has fluctuations, and the long positions in national debt should also be held lightly [3] - The gold market is affected by factors such as central bank gold purchases, inflation data, and trade policies. It is expected to maintain high - level oscillation [3] - The pulp market has a weak supply - demand pattern and is expected to have a weak price trend. The log market has a good fundamental situation and is expected to oscillate within a range [5][6] - The edible oil market has different supply - demand situations. The inventory of some oils may change, and the price is expected to oscillate with an upward bias. The meal market is under pressure from supply and weak demand, and is expected to oscillate in the short term [5][6] - The live pig market has a downward trend in the average trading weight, and the supply is increasing while the consumption is restricted. The price and the slaughterhouse's operating rate are expected to decline [7] - The natural rubber market has a tight supply due to weather and geopolitical factors, and the price is expected to remain strong. The polyester market is affected by multiple factors, and different products have different trends, mainly in a wait - and - see state [10][11] 3. Summary by Categories Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: The short - term manufacturing recovery is interrupted. The northern region will implement environmental protection production restrictions during the September 3rd parade, which may suppress demand. The global iron ore shipment volume has decreased, and the arrival volume has increased. The iron ore fundamentals are currently okay, but there are risks of production reduction and restriction in the future. One can try to go long on RB2601 and short on I2601 contracts [2] - **Coal and Coke**: The exchange has adjusted the quota for coking coal due to the large price increase. The supply of coking coal recovers slowly, and the five - round price increase of coke has been implemented. The profit of steel mills is high, and the demand for coke is strong. Attention should be paid to the supply dynamics and policy matching [2] - **Rebar**: After the Politburo meeting, the market sentiment has cooled down, and the trading logic has returned to fundamentals. The demand for building materials has declined in the off - season, and the total demand is weak. The inventory may accumulate, but the short - term steel products are supported by policies [2] - **Glass**: After the Politburo meeting, the trading logic has returned to fundamentals. The glass production line is stable, the inventory of downstream players is low, but the rigid demand has not recovered. The long - term demand is difficult to pick up significantly [2] Financial Industry - **Stock Index**: The stock index market has rebounded, and the risk preference has recovered. The central bank's monetary policy is "moderately loose", and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures lightly [3] - **National Debt**: The yield of the 10 - year national debt has declined, and the market interest rate has rebounded. The national debt trend has dropped, and it is recommended to hold long positions in national debt lightly [3] - **Gold and Silver**: The gold pricing mechanism is changing. It is affected by central bank gold purchases, inflation, trade policies, and employment data. The market has a high expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September, and the price of gold and silver is expected to maintain high - level oscillation [3] Light Industry - **Pulp**: The spot market price is mainly stable. The cost price of pulp has decreased, and the demand is in the off - season. The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the price is expected to be weak [5] - **Logs**: The demand has increased slightly, and the supply pressure is not large. The cost has increased, and the price is expected to oscillate within a range [5][6] - **Edible Oils**: The production of palm oil may slow down, and the inventory may accumulate. The domestic soybean import volume is high, and the inventory of some oils may change. The price is expected to oscillate with an upward bias [5][6] - **Meal**: The global supply of soybeans is sufficient, and the domestic supply pressure is significant. The demand is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [5][6] - **Live Pigs**: The average trading weight of live pigs is decreasing, the supply is increasing, and the consumption is restricted by high temperatures. The price and the slaughterhouse's operating rate are expected to decline [7] Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: The supply is affected by weather and geopolitical factors, and the demand of the tire industry is differentiated. The inventory in Qingdao Port has decreased, and the price is expected to remain strong [10] - **Polyester Products**: The PX and PTA markets are affected by oil prices and supply - demand relationships. The MEG market has supply pressure, and the PR and PF markets are affected by demand and oil prices. They are mainly in a wait - and - see state [10][11]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: High-level volatility [2] - Coking coal and coke: High-level volatility [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: High-level volatility [2] - Glass: High-level volatility [2] - Soda ash: High-level volatility [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index: Volatility [4] - CSI 500 Index: Volatility [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Volatility [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Volatility [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Volatility [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Upward [4] - Gold: High-level volatility [4] - Silver: High-level volatility [6] - Pulp: Weak operation [6] - Logs: Volatility [6] - Soybean oil: Volatility with a bullish bias [6] - Palm oil: Volatility with a bullish bias [6] - Rapeseed oil: Volatility with a bullish bias [6] - Soybean meal: Volatility [8] - Rapeseed meal: Volatility [8] - Soybean No. 2: Volatility [8] - Soybean No. 1: Volatility [8] - Live pigs: Volatility with a bearish bias [8] - Rubber: Volatility [10] - PX: Wait-and-see [10] - PTA: Wait-and-see [10] - MEG: Wait-and-see [10] - PR: Wait-and-see [10] - PF: Wait-and-see [11] Core Viewpoints - The trading focus of the iron ore market is on "anti-involution + stable growth", with a risk of a phased correction after the short-term emotional release. Consider going long on RB2601 and short on I2601 contracts at low levels and pay attention to policy implementation and off-season demand [2]. - The coking coal adjustment range is relatively large due to the recent sharp increase and the less-than-expected Politburo meeting. Coke has seen five consecutive rounds of price increases, and the loss situation of coke enterprises has improved. Pay attention to the trends of hot metal and coking coal supply and the matching degree of the market with anti-involution policies [2]. - After the Politburo meeting, the market's speculation sentiment has cooled down, and the trading logic has returned to the fundamentals. The overall demand for steel is difficult to show an anti-seasonal performance, and the supply-demand pressure in the steel market may increase. Consider going long on RB2601 and short on I2601 contracts at low levels [2]. - After the Politburo meeting, the market's speculation sentiment has cooled down, and the trading logic has returned to the fundamentals. The glass demand is difficult to recover significantly in the long term, and pay attention to whether the real demand can improve [2]. - The market's upward momentum has weakened, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures lightly [4]. - The market interest rate has rebounded, and the Treasury bond trend has declined. It is recommended to hold long positions in Treasury bonds lightly [4]. - The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to being centered on central bank gold purchases. The factors driving the current round of gold price increases have not completely reversed, and it is expected that gold will maintain high-level volatility [4][6]. - The pulp market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and it is expected that the pulp price will operate weakly [6]. - The fundamentals of the log market are favorable, and it is expected that the log price will mainly fluctuate within a range [6]. - It is expected that the price of edible oils will fluctuate with a bullish bias, and pay attention to the weather in the US soybean producing areas and the production and sales of Malaysian palm oil [6]. - It is expected that soybean meal will fluctuate in the short term, and pay attention to the US soybean weather and soybean arrivals [8]. - It is expected that the average weekly price of live pigs may decline month-on-month, and the slaughtering enterprise's operating rate may maintain a slight downward trend [8]. - It is expected that the natural rubber price will remain firm, and pay attention to the impact of weather and the Thai-Cambodian border situation on rubber production [10]. - The short-term PX price fluctuates with the oil price, and the PTA price mainly fluctuates with the cost. The MEG supply pressure increases, and the short-term cost fluctuates greatly, dragging down the MEG market [10]. - The polyester bottle chip market is expected to continue its weak state today, and the polyester staple fiber market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [10][11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: The global iron ore shipping volume has declined, while the arrival volume has increased significantly. The iron ore fundamentals are still acceptable in the short term, but there is a risk of a phased correction. Consider going long on RB2601 and short on I2601 contracts at low levels [2]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal adjustment range is relatively large due to the recent sharp increase and the less-than-expected Politburo meeting. Coke has seen five consecutive rounds of price increases, and the loss situation of coke enterprises has improved. Pay attention to the trends of hot metal and coking coal supply and the matching degree of the market with anti-involution policies [2]. - **Rolled Steel and Rebar**: After the Politburo meeting, the market's speculation sentiment has cooled down, and the trading logic has returned to the fundamentals. The overall demand for steel is difficult to show an anti-seasonal performance, and the supply-demand pressure in the steel market may increase. Consider going long on RB2601 and short on I2601 contracts at low levels [2]. - **Glass**: After the Politburo meeting, the market's speculation sentiment has cooled down, and the trading logic has returned to the fundamentals. The glass demand is difficult to recover significantly in the long term, and pay attention to whether the real demand can improve [2]. Financial Products - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: The market's upward momentum has weakened, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures lightly [4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The market interest rate has rebounded, and the Treasury bond trend has declined. It is recommended to hold long positions in Treasury bonds lightly [4]. - **Gold and Silver**: The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to being centered on central bank gold purchases. The factors driving the current round of gold price increases have not completely reversed, and it is expected that gold and silver will maintain high-level volatility [4][6]. Pulp and Logs - **Pulp**: The pulp market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and it is expected that the pulp price will operate weakly [6]. - **Logs**: The fundamentals of the log market are favorable, and it is expected that the log price will mainly fluctuate within a range [6]. Edible Oils and Oilseeds - **Edible Oils**: It is expected that the price of edible oils will fluctuate with a bullish bias, and pay attention to the weather in the US soybean producing areas and the production and sales of Malaysian palm oil [6]. - **Oilseeds and Meals**: It is expected that soybean meal will fluctuate in the short term, and pay attention to the US soybean weather and soybean arrivals [8]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: It is expected that the average weekly price of live pigs may decline month-on-month, and the slaughtering enterprise's operating rate may maintain a slight downward trend [8]. Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: It is expected that the natural rubber price will remain firm, and pay attention to the impact of weather and the Thai-Cambodian border situation on rubber production [10]. Petrochemicals - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF**: The short-term PX price fluctuates with the oil price, and the PTA price mainly fluctuates with the cost. The MEG supply pressure increases, and the short-term cost fluctuates greatly, dragging down the MEG market. The polyester bottle chip market is expected to continue its weak state today, and the polyester staple fiber market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [10][11].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore, coking coal, coke, rolled steel, rebar, glass, soda ash: High-level oscillation [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, CSI 1000 Index, 2-year Treasury bond, 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Upward [4] - Gold, silver: High-level oscillation [4][6] - Pulp: Weak operation [6] - Logs: Oscillation [6] - Soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil: Oscillation [6] - Soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean No. 2: Strong oscillation [8] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillation [8] - Live pigs: Weak oscillation [8] - Rubber: Oscillation [10] - PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF: Wait-and-see [10][11] Core Viewpoints - The trading focus of iron ore is on "anti-involution + stable growth", with a risk of a phased correction after short-term sentiment release. Consider going long on RB2601 and short on I2601 contracts at low levels [2] - The coke oven has adjusted the quota for coking coal due to a large recent increase, and the adjustment range of coking coal is also large. Pay attention to the trends of molten iron and coking coal supply and the matching degree of the market with anti-involution policies [2] - After the Politburo meeting, the market's speculation sentiment has cooled down, and the trading logic has returned to the fundamentals. The steel market's supply-demand pressure may increase, and short-term steel industry has stable growth expectations [2] - The market's speculation sentiment for glass has cooled down, and the trading logic has returned to the fundamentals. The demand for glass is difficult to recover significantly in the long term, and pay attention to whether the real demand can improve [2] - The market's upward momentum has weakened, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures lightly. The bond market has fallen, and it is recommended to hold long positions in Treasury bonds lightly [4] - The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from the traditional core of real interest rates to the core of central bank gold purchases. The Fed's interest rate and tariff policies may be short-term disturbing factors, and gold is expected to maintain high-level oscillation [4][6] - The pulp market is in a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the pulp price is expected to run weakly [6] - The log market has a good fundamental situation, and the log price is expected to oscillate within a range [6] - The oil market is expected to oscillate, and pay attention to the weather in the US soybean producing areas and the production and sales of Malaysian palm oil [6] - The soybean meal market is expected to oscillate strongly, and pay attention to the weather of US soybeans and the arrival of soybeans [8] - The average trading weight of live pigs is expected to continue to decline slightly, and the weekly average price of live pigs may decline month-on-month [8] - The natural rubber price is expected to remain firm, and pay attention to the impact of weather and the Thai-Cambodian border situation on supply [10] - The PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF markets are in a wait-and-see state, and their prices mainly follow cost fluctuations [10][11] Summaries by Related Catalogs Ferrous Metals - **Iron ore**: The global iron ore shipment volume has decreased, the arrival volume has increased significantly, and the molten iron production is still at a high level. The fundamentals are temporarily okay. Consider going long on RB2601 and short on I2601 contracts at low levels, and pay attention to policy implementation and off-season demand [2] - **Coking coal and coke**: The coking coal supply recovers slowly, and the short-term upward momentum is insufficient. The coke has had five consecutive rounds of price increases, and the loss situation of coke enterprises has improved. Pay attention to the trends of molten iron and coking coal supply and the matching degree of the market with anti-involution policies [2] - **Rolled steel and rebar**: After the Politburo meeting, the market's speculation sentiment has cooled down, and the trading logic has returned to the fundamentals. The demand for building materials has declined month-on-month, and the supply-demand pressure of the steel market may increase. The short-term steel industry has stable growth expectations, and consider going long on RB2601 and short on I2601 contracts at low levels [2] - **Glass**: After the Politburo meeting, the market's speculation sentiment has cooled down, and the trading logic has returned to the fundamentals. The demand for glass is difficult to recover significantly in the long term, and pay attention to whether the real demand can improve [2] Financial Products - **Stock index futures/options**: The market's upward momentum has weakened, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures lightly [4] - **Treasury bonds**: The bond market has fallen, and it is recommended to hold long positions in Treasury bonds lightly [4] - **Gold and silver**: The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting, and the Fed's interest rate and tariff policies may be short-term disturbing factors. Gold is expected to maintain high-level oscillation. Silver is also expected to maintain high-level oscillation, affected by factors such as US economic data and tariff policies [4][6] Pulp and Logs - **Pulp**: The pulp market is in a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the pulp price is expected to run weakly [6] - **Logs**: The log market has a good fundamental situation, and the log price is expected to oscillate within a range [6] Oils and Fats - **Oils**: The production growth of Malaysian palm oil may slow down, and the inventory may continue to increase. The demand for domestic oils is warming up, and the oils market is expected to oscillate. Pay attention to the weather in the US soybean producing areas and the production and sales of Malaysian palm oil [6] - **Meals**: The supply of soybean meal is under pressure, and the demand is weak. The soybean meal market is expected to oscillate strongly. Pay attention to the weather of US soybeans and the arrival of soybeans [8] Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: The average trading weight of live pigs is expected to continue to decline slightly, and the weekly average price of live pigs may decline month-on-month [8] - **Rubber**: The supply of natural rubber is expected to be tight, and the demand for tires shows a differentiated trend. The natural rubber price is expected to remain firm, and pay attention to the impact of weather and the Thai-Cambodian border situation on supply [10] Polyester Products - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF**: These markets are in a wait-and-see state, and their prices mainly follow cost fluctuations [10][11]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - **Black Industry**: High-level oscillation for iron ore, coking coal, rolled steel, and glass [2] - **Financial Industry**: Rebound for SSE 50 Index Futures/Options; oscillation for CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, 2-year, 5-year, and 10-year Treasury bonds; high-level oscillation for gold and silver; weak operation for pulp; oscillation for logs; oscillation for oils and fats; strong oscillation for soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybean No. 2; oscillation for soybean No. 1; weak oscillation for live pigs; oscillation for rubber; wait-and-see for PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF [3][4][6][8][10][11] 2. Core Views - **Black Industry**: In the short term, the fundamentals of iron ore are fair, but there are risks of adjustment after the release of short-term sentiment. The supply of coking coal is recovering slowly, and the upward momentum is insufficient. The demand for steel is difficult to show an inverse seasonal performance, and the supply-demand pressure may increase. The demand for glass is difficult to recover significantly, and attention should be paid to the improvement of actual demand [2] - **Financial Industry**: The upward momentum of the market is weakening, and it is recommended to reduce the long positions of stock index futures. The trend of Treasury bonds is falling back, and it is recommended to hold long positions lightly. Gold is expected to maintain high-level oscillation [3][4][6] - **Light Industry and Agricultural Products**: The price of pulp is expected to run weakly, and the price of logs is expected to oscillate. The price of oils and fats is expected to oscillate, and the price of soybean meal is expected to oscillate strongly. The price of live pigs is expected to oscillate weakly [6][8] - **Soft Commodities and Polyester**: The price of rubber is expected to maintain a firm trend. The supply and demand of PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF are in different states, and it is recommended to wait and see [10][11] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: The recent trading focus is on "anti-involution + stable growth", with a risk of short-term adjustment after the release of sentiment. The total global iron ore shipment is 32 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 918,000 tons, and the supply remains loose. The iron ore arrival has declined in the past two weeks, and it is expected to bottom out and rebound. The iron water output has decreased by 15,200 tons to 2.4071 million tons month-on-month, but it is still at a high level. It is recommended to go long on RB2601 and short on I2601 contracts at low levels [2] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Due to the recent large increase, the exchange has adjusted the limit for coking coal, and the adjustment range of coking coal is also large. The supply of coking coal is recovering slowly, and the willingness of downstream to receive high-priced resources has decreased. Coke has completed four rounds of price increases, and the fifth round has not been implemented yet. Steel mills have high profits, high iron water output, and are actively purchasing coke [2] - **Rolled Steel**: After the Politburo meeting, the market trading logic has returned to the fundamentals. The demand for building materials has declined month-on-month, and the total demand is difficult to show an inverse seasonal performance. The profits of the five major steel products are fair, the output is flat, and the inventory may continue to accumulate. It is recommended to go long on RB2601 and short on I2601 contracts at low levels [2] - **Glass**: After the Politburo meeting, the market trading logic has returned to the fundamentals. The start-up rate is basically stable, and the weekly melting volume has increased slightly. The downstream inventory has room for replenishment, but the rigid demand has not recovered. The demand for glass is difficult to recover significantly in the long term [2] Financial Industry - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: The performance of the previous trading day was mixed, with some sectors having capital inflows and others having outflows. The interest income of newly issued bonds after August 8, 2025, will be subject to VAT. The state will accelerate the approval and establishment of new policy-based financial instruments, and the issuance of government bonds is expected to speed up. It is recommended to reduce the long positions of stock index futures [3][4] - **Treasury Bonds**: The yield of the 10-year Treasury bond is flat, and the market interest rate has rebounded. The central bank has carried out reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 66.33 billion yuan on the day. It is recommended to hold long positions of Treasury bonds lightly [4] - **Gold and Silver**: The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from the traditional real interest rate to central bank gold purchases. The debt problem in the United States may worsen, and the de-dollarization attribute of gold is prominent. The substitution effect of gold for bonds has weakened, and the geopolitical risk has decreased marginally. The short-term data in the United States has affected the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, and the risk aversion sentiment has increased. Gold is expected to maintain high-level oscillation [4][6] - **Paper Pulp**: The spot market price of paper pulp is differentiated, with the price of softwood pulp continuing to decline and the price of hardwood pulp remaining stable. The ex-works price of softwood pulp has decreased, and the cost support for the pulp price has weakened. The profitability of the paper industry is low, the inventory pressure of paper mills is large, and the demand is in the off-season. It is expected that the paper pulp price will run weakly [6] - **Logs**: The daily average shipment volume of logs at ports has increased, and the demand is in the seasonal off-season. The shipment volume of New Zealand logs to China in June has increased by 0.3% month-on-month. The expected arrival volume this week is 221,000 cubic meters, with a month-on-month decrease of 54%. The inventory at ports has decreased by 120,000 cubic meters. The spot market price is running strongly, and the cost support has increased. It is expected that the log price will oscillate [6] Light Industry and Agricultural Products - **Oils and Fats**: The aging of oil palm trees in Malaysia may limit production growth, and the export in July has declined. India will continue to actively import palm oil before the Diwali Festival in mid-October, and the demand for biodiesel in Indonesia is expected to be good. The international oil price fluctuates, affecting the demand for US soybean oil biodiesel. The domestic import of soybeans in July and August remains high, the oil mill operating rate is high, and the inventory of the three major oils and fats continues to increase. It is expected that the price of oils and fats will oscillate [6][8] - **Meal and Beans**: The result of the Sino-US trade negotiation is not as expected, and the import tariff of US soybeans remains high. The premium of Brazilian soybeans is high due to concentrated demand. The US soybean production area supports a good harvest, but the weather in August is uncertain. The domestic supply pressure is significant, the soybean arrival volume in July and August remains high, the oil mill operating rate is high, and the soybean meal inventory is high and may continue to accumulate. The demand is weak, and the feed demand is expected to shrink. It is expected that the price of soybean meal will oscillate strongly [8] - **Live Pigs**: The average trading weight of live pigs continues to decline, with a national average of 124.91 kilograms. The slaughtering enterprise has increased the purchase of low-price standard pigs, and the average purchase weight has decreased. The average settlement price of key slaughtering enterprises has increased slightly, but the price has declined from the high level. The average operating rate of key slaughtering enterprises has decreased to 31.97%, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.97 percentage points. It is expected that the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises will continue to decline slightly, and the weekly average price of live pigs may decline month-on-month [8] Soft Commodities and Polyester - **Rubber**: The military conflict between Thailand and Cambodia has led to an expected shortage of rubber supply in Southeast Asia, and the raw material prices in Thailand and China are firm. The supply in the main natural rubber producing areas at home and abroad is affected by weather factors, and the raw material supply is tight, pushing up the purchase price. The demand for the domestic tire industry has shown a differentiated trend, with the capacity utilization rate of semi-steel tire sample enterprises increasing by 1.93 percentage points to 70.7% and that of full-steel tire sample enterprises increasing by 0.25 percentage points to 62.2%. The inventory of rubber at Qingdao Port has decreased slightly. It is expected that the price of natural rubber will remain firm [10] - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF**: Under the pressure of OPEC+ production increase, the oil price has room to fall, the PTA load has oscillated and declined, and the polyester load has slightly oscillated. The short-term PXN spread is relatively strong, and the PX price fluctuates with the oil price. The cost of PTA has oscillated and weakened, the overall supply has recovered slowly, and the downstream polyester factory load has shown a slight downward trend. The MEG arrival volume has begun to increase, and the port inventory may start to accumulate. The supply of PR is stable, and the demand side replenishes goods at low prices. The demand for PF is insufficient, and the cost side may also be weak. It is recommended to wait and see for these products [10][11]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - **Black Industry**: Iron ore, coal coke, rolled steel, and glass are rated as "High - level Volatility"; Rebar (RB2601) and Iron Ore (I2601) suggest a strategy of "Long RB2601, Short I2601" [2] - **Financial Industry**: Shanghai Composite 50 is rated as "Rebound"; CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are rated as "Volatility"; 2 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year treasury bonds are rated as "Volatility" (10 - year is "Decline"); Gold is rated as "High - level Volatility"; Silver is rated as "High - level Decline" [2][4] - **Light Industry**: Pulp is rated as "Correction"; Logs are rated as "Volatility"; Oils and Fats (including soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil) are rated as "Volatility with an Uptrend Bias"; Meal (including soybean meal and rapeseed meal), soybean No.2, and soybean No.1 are rated as "Volatility" [5] - **Agricultural Products**: Live pigs are rated as "Volatility with a Downtrend Bias" [8] - **Soft Commodities**: Rubber is rated as "Volatility"; PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF are rated as "Wait - and - See" [10][11][12] 2. Core Views - The overall performance of the Politburo meeting fell short of expectations, which may lead to a continued weakening of market trading enthusiasm. Policy - related production cuts and restrictions in the future need to be closely watched [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized efforts to stabilize employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations in the second half of the year, and to promote investment and consumption [4] - The logic driving the rise in gold prices has not completely reversed, but short - term fluctuations may be affected by the Fed's interest rate and tariff policies [4] 3. Summary by Industry Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: Global iron ore shipments are increasing, and supply remains abundant. Although recent arrivals have declined, they are expected to rebound seasonally. Iron ore fundamentals are currently stable, but there are risks of policy - driven production cuts and restrictions. A strategy of "Long RB2601, Short I2601" is recommended [2] - **Coal Coke**: The exchange has adjusted the trading limit for coking coal due to recent sharp price increases. The supply of coking coal is recovering slowly, and the downstream's willingness to accept high - priced resources has decreased. Coke has seen four consecutive rounds of price increases, and there is an expectation of a fifth round [2] - **Rolled Steel**: In the off - season, building material demand has declined, and steel inventories have started to rise from a low level. The short - term steel industry still has expectations of stable growth, and the same "Long RB2601, Short I2601" strategy is recommended [2] - **Glass**: Supply remains low, and market sentiment has improved, leading to increased downstream stocking. However, real - estate demand is still weak, and long - term demand is difficult to recover significantly [2] Financial Industry - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: The previous trading day saw declines in major stock indices. The National Development and Reform Commission's meeting emphasized efforts to achieve annual goals. Market upward momentum has weakened, and it is recommended to reduce long positions in stock indices [4] - **Treasury Bonds**: Yields on 10 - year treasury bonds have declined, and the central bank has conducted reverse repurchase operations. Market interest rates have rebounded, and it is recommended to hold long positions in treasury bonds lightly [4] - **Precious Metals**: Gold is affected by multiple factors such as currency, finance, and geopolitics. Although there are short - term pressures, the upward - driving logic has not reversed. Silver has declined due to factors such as the Fed's non - interest - rate - cut decision and hawkish remarks [4] Light Industry - **Pulp**: The cost of pulp has decreased, and the paper - making industry's demand is in the off - season. The supply - demand situation is weak, and pulp prices are expected to correct [6] - **Logs**: Log demand is in the off - season, but furniture exports are favorable. The cost of logs is rising, and supply pressure is not significant. Log prices are expected to remain stable with some volatility [6] - **Oils and Fats**: The production of Malaysian palm oil may slow down, and demand is recovering. Domestic oil inventories are increasing. Oils and fats are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias, and attention should be paid to soybean weather and palm oil production and sales [6] - **Meal**: The supply of soybean meal is abundant, and demand is weak. However, weather conditions in the US soybean - growing areas may provide some support, and soybean meal prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [6] - **Soybean No.2 and Soybean No.1**: Supply is sufficient, and prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with attention to US soybean weather, soybean arrivals, and Sino - US trade negotiations [6] Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: The average trading weight of live pigs is decreasing, and the supply of live pigs is increasing. High - temperature weather restricts consumption demand, and slaughterhouse operating rates are expected to decline slightly, with pig prices likely to fall week - on - week [8] Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: Supply is affected by weather and the Thai - Cambodian conflict, and demand from the tire industry is mixed. Rubber inventories at Qingdao Port are decreasing, and rubber prices are expected to remain firm [10][11] - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF**: PX supply is tight in the short term, and prices follow oil prices. PTA supply recovery is slow, and demand is weakening. MEG supply pressure is increasing. PR and PF are facing cost and demand challenges, and all are in a wait - and - see situation [10][11][12]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week (July 21 - July 25, 2025), alumina futures showed a significant upward trend, and the alumina market continued its strong pattern with increased market activity. The active trading in the spot market drove up the alumina price substantially [2]. - In the short - term, alumina will fluctuate, and capital games will intensify. It is easy to be affected by the decline of market sentiment and inventory increase, leading to sharp drops. However, considering the increased supply and ore - end interference factors compared to the first half of the year and the "anti - involution" and "stable growth" policies as the main themes in the second half of the year, a relatively strong outlook is maintained [19]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Overview and Market Review 1.1 Overall Market Performance - This week (July 21 - July 25, 2025), the main alumina contract rose following the macro - sentiment of the commodity market. The daily line was above the moving average, and the weekly line was among the moving averages. The alumina 2509 contract closed at 3,428 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.27%. The trading volume was 910,000 lots, and the open interest was 190,000 lots [2]. 2. Analysis of Influencing Factors 2.1 This Week's Fundamental Data Tracking and Interpretation - **Macro**: Domestically, the trading focus is on "anti - involution + stable growth". The reversal of macro - sentiment, combined with term - positive arbitrage to lock in inventories and downstream speculative restocking, forms a typical characteristic of speculating on expectations during the off - season. The medium - term sustainability of the market depends on whether the expectations can be realized, specifically the actual implementation of "anti - involution + stable growth" policies in China and whether the strong overseas macro - reality can continue [6]. - **Commodity Logic**: Currently, the commodity sentiment is cooling in the short - term. The current position can be regarded as a policy bottom, and the market bottom requires more clues of macro and fundamental improvement. Domestically, it focuses on whether M1 and social financing continue to rise and the decline rate of manufacturing investment growth. Overseas, it focuses on whether container shipments and US consumption data weaken after August 1st and the degree of the weakening. August - September is a transition period from the policy bottom to the market bottom, and major asset classes, including commodities, may show a pattern of intra - commodity differentiation and mainly fluctuate [9]. - **Fundamentals**: - The political power in Guinea is becoming more volatile, and the bauxite mining rights may be used as a means of political game and tax increase. Attention should be paid to the risks brought by black - swan events in the ore end in the second half of the year [9]. - The current supply in the spot market is tight, and the spot transaction price is still rising. The spot price is at a premium mainly due to factors such as the previous supply of long - term contracts, partial over - sales, and recent maintenance of alumina plants in some regions. The available spot in the market is still relatively limited. Calculated based on the Australian FOB price of $380 on July 25, the current theoretical import price of alumina is about 3,350 yuan [9][10]. - On Friday, the alumina warehouse receipts increased slightly but remained at a low level. The alumina warehouse receipts increased by 2,109 tons to 9,031 tons, showing a slight selling pressure. However, it is necessary to track whether the increase continues. The total warehouse receipts are still at a very low level. It is expected that about 50,000 tons of warehouse receipts may be gradually formed in Xinjiang by the end of July or early August. The inventory in alumina plants is still low, the profit of electrolytic aluminum is good, and the willingness to support the price in the spot market is strong. In addition, alumina spot sales are mainly long - term contracts, so the available supply for the futures market may be limited [13]. - The market sentiment changes rapidly, and "anti - involution + stable growth" remains the main theme. On Friday night, the exchange's position limit led to the decline of market sentiment. A series of varieties led by coking coal dropped from the daily limit to near the daily limit. Alumina was affected by the sentiment decline and the increase in futures inventory, and its premium was reversed, resulting in a sharp drop. The short - term market sentiment changes greatly, and risk control should be noted [14]. - The operating capacity of alumina is still rising, and the inventory in alumina plants has increased slightly. The operating capacity of alumina is 94.95 million tons, an increase of 1.1 million tons compared with last week. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is about 44.2 million tons, still in an oversupply stage. The total alumina inventory is increasing (the latest weekly inventory is 4.047 million tons, an increase of 58,000 tons), but the inventory increase mainly occurs in the raw material inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants and the in - transit link. The inventory in alumina plants increased by 10,000 tons to 60,000 tons, still at a low level. In terms of imports, about 100,000 tons of imported alumina is expected to enter the domestic market in August, mainly from Indonesia, and the ports of arrival are concentrated in Liaoning and Guangxi [16]. 3. Conclusion and Outlook - Alumina will fluctuate in the short - term, and capital games will intensify. Attention should be paid to risk control. On Friday night, the exchange's position limit led to the decline of market sentiment, and alumina was prone to sharp drops due to the decline of market sentiment and inventory increase. In the future, supply and ore - end interference factors will increase compared to the first half of the year, and the "anti - involution" and "stable growth" policies will remain the main themes in the second half of the year, so a relatively strong outlook should be maintained [19].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: High-level oscillation [2] - Coking coal and coke: High-level oscillation [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: High-level oscillation [2] - Glass: High-level oscillation [2] - SSE 50: Rebound [2] - CSI 300: Oscillation [2] - CSI 500: Oscillation [2] - CSI 1000: Oscillation [2] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [2] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [2] - 10-year Treasury bond: Decline [2] - Gold: Oscillation [2] - Silver: High-level oscillation [2] - Pulp: Correction [2] - Logs: Oscillation [2] - Soybean oil: Oscillation with a bullish bias [2] - Palm oil: Oscillation with a bullish bias [2] - Rapeseed oil: Oscillation with a bullish bias [2] - Soybean meal: Oscillation [2] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillation [2] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillation [2] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillation [2] - Live pigs: Oscillation with a bearish bias [2] - Rubber: Oscillation [2] - PX: Wait-and-see [2] - PTA: Wait-and-see [2] - MEG: Wait-and-see [2] - PR: Wait-and-see [2] - PF: Wait-and-see [2] Core Views - The trading focus in the near term is on "anti-involution + stable growth", with risks of a phased correction after short-term sentiment release. During the military parade on September 3rd, environmental protection restrictions in northern regions may suppress iron ore demand. The overall performance of the Politburo meeting was below expectations, and market trading enthusiasm may continue to weaken [2]. - The Politburo meeting decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee in October to study suggestions for formulating the "15th Five-Year Plan". Macro policies should continue to exert force and increase strength in a timely manner [2]. - The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to being centered on central bank gold purchases. The Fed's interest rate and tariff policies may be short-term disturbances, and the evolution of tariff policies and geopolitical conflicts dominates market risk aversion sentiment [2]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron ore**: Global iron ore shipments are increasing, supply remains abundant, and arrivals are expected to rebound. The iron ore fundamentals are okay in the short term. Consider a strategy of going long on RB2601 and short on I2601 contracts [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: The exchange adjusted the trading limit for coking coal. Coking coal supply recovery is slow, and there is limited power for further significant price increases. Coke has a fifth-round price increase expectation [2]. - **Rebar and hot-rolled coil**: There are risks of a phased correction. The market trading enthusiasm may decline. The supply-demand contradiction is not prominent, and there is a pre-holiday high and post-holiday low pattern. Consider a strategy of going long on RB2601 and short on I2601 contracts [2]. - **Glass**: Supply remains low, and the market sentiment has improved. However, the real estate industry is in an adjustment period, and glass demand is difficult to rebound significantly [2]. Financial Industry - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: Different stock indices showed different trends, with some sectors having capital inflows and others having outflows. The Politburo meeting deployed economic work for the second half of the year [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Market interest rates rebounded, and Treasury bond prices declined. Hold Treasury bond long positions lightly [2]. - **Gold**: The pricing mechanism is changing, and various factors such as the US debt problem, interest rates, and geopolitics affect its price. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [2]. Light Industry - **Pulp**: The pulp market has a pattern of weak supply and demand, and prices are expected to correct [2]. - **Logs**: Log prices are expected to oscillate, with supply pressure not significant and demand improving [2]. Oil and Fat Industry - **Oils**: The production of Malaysian palm oil may slow down, and domestic soybean arrivals are high. Oils are expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [2]. - **Meals**: The US soybean harvest is expected to be good, and domestic supply pressure is significant. Demand is weak, but weather factors may provide support. Meals are expected to oscillate [2]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: The average trading weight of live pigs is declining, and prices are expected to oscillate with a bearish bias. Slaughter enterprise开工率 may continue to decline [2]. Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: Supply is affected by weather and geopolitical factors, and demand from the tire industry is mixed. Rubber prices are expected to remain firm [2]. Polyester Industry - **PX**: Supply and demand are tight in the short term, and prices follow oil prices [2]. - **PTA**: Supply is slowly increasing, and downstream demand is weakening. Prices follow costs in the short term [2]. - **MEG**: Arrivals are increasing, and supply pressure is rising. Prices are under pressure in the short term [2]. - **PR**: The polyester bottle - chip market may adjust steadily and strongly [2]. - **PF**: The market is expected to be in a narrow range due to the game between cost support and weak demand [2].