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2025 年 11 月 24 日 出口需求疲软 棕榈油震荡偏弱 棕榈油周报 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 焦鹏飞 从业资格号：F03122184 投资咨询号：Z0023260 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 9 ⚫ 上周，BMD马棕油主连跌57收于4068林吉特/吨，跌幅 1.38%；棕榈油01合约跌94收于8550元/吨，跌幅1.09%； 豆油01合约跌66收于8190元/吨，跌幅0.8%；菜油01合 约跌107收于9816元/吨，跌幅1.08%；CBOT豆油主连涨 0.13收于50.61美分/磅，涨幅0.26%；ICE油菜籽活跃合 约跌3.9收于641.8加元/吨，跌幅 ...

Market Overview - The USDA's November supply and demand report indicates that the expected soybean planting area for the 2025/26 season is 81.1 million acres, with a harvest area of 80.3 million acres and a yield of 53 bushels per acre, leading to an estimated production of 4.253 billion bushels, a decrease from the previous month's estimate of 4.301 billion bushels [1] - NOPA's monthly report predicts that U.S. soybean processing in October will reach 209.522 million bushels, a 5.9% increase from September and a 4.8% increase from October 2024, potentially setting a new monthly record [2] - Malaysian palm oil exports for the first half of November are reported to have decreased significantly, with AmSpec reporting a 10% drop and SGS reporting a 44.9% decrease compared to the previous month [2][3] Production and Export Forecasts - Industry analyst Thomas Mielke forecasts Indonesia's palm oil production for 2026 to be 49 million tons, slightly down from 49.4 million tons in 2025, while Malaysia's production is expected to decrease from 19.86 million tons in 2025 to 19.5 million tons in 2026 [3] - Dorab Mistry anticipates a global palm oil production increase of 1.5 million tons for the 2025/26 season, with total vegetable oil supply rising by 4.2 million tons and demand increasing by 6 million tons [3] - Canada's canola seed exports have decreased by 35.67% to 121,200 tons as of November 9, with a year-on-year decline of 54.10% [3] Pricing and Market Dynamics - Malaysia has set the reference price for palm oil at 4,206.38 ringgit per ton for December, with an export tax rate of 10% [3] - The market for soybean oil remains strong, driven by the performance of canola oil and high import costs, which support soybean oil prices despite a pullback in soybean prices [6]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Core Viewpoints - The report presents the latest information on the supply and demand of major oilseeds and oils in the 2025/26 period, including data on soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil, as well as the expected trend of U.S. soybean crushing volume and inventory [1] Summary by Related Catalogs 2025/26 Annual U.S. Soybean Information - The estimated production for the 2025/26 U.S. soybean season is 4.253 billion bushels, down from the September estimate of 4.301 billion bushels - The estimated planting area is 81.1 million acres, the same as the September estimate - The estimated harvested area is 80.3 million acres, consistent with the September estimate - The estimated yield per acre is 53 bushels, down from the September estimate of 53.5 bushels - The estimated export volume is 1.635 billion bushels, down from the September estimate of 1.685 billion bushels - The estimated ending stocks are 290 million bushels, down from the September estimate of 300 million bushels [1] 2025/26 Annual Global Soybean Information - Brazil's estimated soybean production is 175 million tons, the same as the September estimate, and the estimated export volume is 112.5 million tons, up from the September estimate of 112 million tons - Argentina's estimated soybean production is 48.5 million tons, the same as the September estimate, and the estimated export volume is 8.25 million tons, up from the September estimate of 6 million tons - China's estimated soybean imports are 112 million tons, the same as the September estimate - Global estimated soybean production is 421.75 million tons, down from the September estimate of 425.87 million tons, and the estimated ending stocks are 121.99 million tons, down from the September estimate of 123.99 million tons [1] U.S. October Soybean Crushing Volume - The estimated U.S. soybean crushing volume in October is 209.522 million bushels, an increase of 5.9% from September's 197.863 million bushels and 4.8% from October 2024's 199.943 million bushels, setting a new record high [1] U.S. October Soybean Oil Inventory - The estimated U.S. soybean oil inventory in October is 1.257 billion pounds, an increase of 1.1% from the end - of - September inventory of 1.243 billion pounds and 17.0% from October 2024's 1.074 billion pounds [1] 2025/26 Annual Global Rapeseed Information - Global estimated rapeseed production is 92.273 million tons, an increase of 6.274 million tons year - on - year, and the estimated ending stocks are 11.336 million tons, an increase of 1.504 million tons year - on - year - Global estimated rapeseed oil production is 35.009 million tons, an increase of 0.873 million tons year - on - year, and the estimated ending stocks are 3.19 million tons, a decrease of 0.016 million tons year - on - year - Global estimated rapeseed meal production is 50.005 million tons, an increase of 0.949 million tons year - on - year, and the estimated ending stocks are 1.541 million tons, an increase of 0.153 million tons year - on - year - Canada's estimated rapeseed export volume is 6.7 million tons, a decrease of 2.631 million tons year - on - year; the estimated rapeseed oil export volume is 3.375 million tons, an increase of 0.06 million tons year - on - year; the estimated rapeseed meal export volume is 5.5 million tons, a decrease of 0.299 million tons year - on - year [1] Malaysia Palm Oil Export - Malaysia's palm oil product export volume from November 1 - 15 is 728,995 tons, a decrease of 15.5% compared to the same period last month [1] Indonesia Palm Oil Production - Indonesia's palm oil production in 2026 is expected to increase by 3 - 4%, lower than this year's estimated growth rate of 4 - 7%, and the 2025 palm oil export is expected to increase by 6 - 7% [1] Spot Prices - The report provides spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from November 10 - 14, 2025 [2]

Summary of Agricultural Commodities Fundamentals Update Industry Overview - The report focuses on the agricultural commodities sector, highlighting the expected volatility in 2026 as global agricultural availability continues to decline from already low levels established in 2025/26 [7][10][14]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Global Agricultural Availability**: - Global agricultural commodity availability is projected to decline further, indicating a tightening supply situation [8][10]. - Stocks-to-use (STU) ratios for major commodities such as soybeans, wheat, sugar, and palm oil are expected to decrease year-over-year (YOY) for the next two seasons [7][10]. 2. **Stocks-to-Use Ratios**: - The world STU ratios are near multi-year lows for 2026E/27E and 2027E/28E, with a decline from suppressed levels in 2025E/26E [7][10]. - Specific STU ratios for various commodities are projected as follows: - Soybeans: 19.4% in 2026/27 - Wheat: 29% in 2026/27 - Sugar: 14.7% in 2026/27 - Palm Oil: 17.5% in 2026/27 [8]. 3. **Inventory Projections**: - Global ending stocks projections through 2026/27 show significant inventory draws across the complex, with palm oil and corn experiencing the largest declines of -7.6% and -6.4% respectively [10][11]. - Adjustments in inventory projections indicate a marginal increase across most markets for 2025/26, except for cotton which saw a decline of 1.4% [12]. 4. **Market Dynamics**: - The report indicates that the agricultural commodities market is facing complex dynamics with varying trends across different commodities, necessitating close monitoring of supply and demand factors [10][14]. 5. **Regional Analysis**: - The report includes detailed balances for wheat production in key regions such as the US, Black Sea, Russia, and Ukraine, highlighting the production, consumption, and export dynamics [19][21][23][25]. Additional Important Content - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the underlying factors affecting agricultural commodity prices, including weather conditions, geopolitical events, and changes in consumer demand [10][14]. - It also notes that the USDA data is incomplete due to a government shutdown, which may affect the accuracy of the projections [9][14][19][23]. This comprehensive overview provides insights into the agricultural commodities sector, highlighting the expected challenges and opportunities in the coming years.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Palm Oil - International market: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are in a low - level oscillatory consolidation. After short - term consolidation, there is a need to rebound to 4,200 - 4,250 ringgit. However, beware of the risk of a technical decline due to concerns about slow exports and high seasonal production, with a possible second dip to 4,000 ringgit for support [3]. - Domestic market: Dalian palm oil futures are in an oscillatory rebound. Driven by the continuous rebound of soybean and rapeseed oils, it may follow the upward trend and test the annual - line resistance at 8,900 yuan, and may briefly break through to fill the gap around 8,950 yuan. But it may also follow the decline to seek support at 8,500 yuan if Malaysian palm oil has a second dip to 4,000 ringgit [3]. Soybean Oil - Domestic soybean oil: Due to the swelling of soybean meal warehouses, the recent factory operating rate has decreased, resulting in reduced soybean oil output and inventory. The recent rebound of soybean oil and the "buy - on - rising" psychology of some traders have boosted the futures market. However, the limited fluctuations of international related varieties have restricted the increase of Dalian soybean oil. The upper pressure of the CBOT soybean oil January contract is around 8,350 yuan on the daily upper - track. If the USDA monthly report fails to boost CBOT soybeans and soybean oil, CBOT soybeans may回调, dragging down Dalian soybean oil [4]. Oilseeds - Soybean Meal - Futures: Although China has made moderate purchases of US soybeans, the continuous poor crushing profit of oil mills has led to less than 50% of the ship - buying progress from December to February. The low crushing profit provides bottom support for prices, but the continuous increase of short positions by COFCO restricts the upward space. It is expected that Dalian soybean meal will remain oscillating in the range of 3,030 - 3,070 yuan in the short term [13]. - Spot: The fixed - price of oil mills remains stable, and the near - month basis has been partially reduced by 10 yuan. The news of Cofco's reserve rotation has affected market sentiment, and the downstream purchasing rhythm is slow. Some make moderate replenishments before the release of the US agricultural report. The short - term spot price is expected to be sorted out in the range of 3,000 - 3,250 yuan/ton [13]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Oil - Fat Price and Spread - **Month - to - month and variety - to - variety spreads**: Various spreads such as P 1 - 5, Y - P 01, etc. have different price changes. For example, P 1 - 5 is - 84 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 18 yuan, and Y - P 01 is - 532 yuan/ton with a daily decrease of 70 yuan [5]. - **Palm oil prices**: Palm oil 01 is 8,744 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.3%, BMD palm oil main contract is 4,123 ringgit/ton with a decline of 0.34%, etc [5]. - **Soybean oil prices**: Soybean oil 01 is 8,288 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.16%, CBOT soybean oil main contract is 51.04 cents/pound with an increase of 1.01%, etc [9]. Oilseed Price and Spread - **Futures prices**: For example, the closing price of bean粕01 is 3,059 with an increase of 5 and a rise - rate of 0.16%, and the closing price of菜粕01 is 2,494 with a decrease of 6 and a decline - rate of - 0.24% [14]. - **Price spreads**: M01 - 05 is 218 with a daily decrease of 16, RM01 - 05 is 79 with a daily decrease of 20, etc [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After a significant decline, the oil market has stabilized and is experiencing a technical rebound. However, in the short term, there is still a lack of obvious drivers, and the expected increase is limited [25][27]. - It is expected that after the Malaysian palm oil inventory accumulates in October, it will gradually start to decline slightly, but the inventory will still remain at a moderately high level. The production forecast of Indonesian palm oil has been raised, and the inventory is expected to remain low, but the fundamentals have weakened marginally compared to before. The domestic palm oil inventory has been continuously accumulating, and the supply may be relatively loose. Currently, there is no prominent core contradiction in soybean oil, and its price fluctuates more in line with the overall trend of the oil market, with limited upward momentum but greater resilience. In the short term, the domestic rapeseed supply is insufficient, and the import volume of rapeseed oil is also relatively limited. The domestic rapeseed oil inventory is expected to continue to decline, but there are rumors of Australian rapeseed arrivals, which alleviates the expectation of a tight rapeseed supply [4][25]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Weekly Core Points Analysis and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 International Market - Malaysian Palm Oil - Estimated institutions predict that the Malaysian palm oil production will increase by 6% to 1.95 million tons in October, exports will increase to 1.48 million tons, and the inventory will accumulate to 2.44 million tons. However, MPOA's latest forecast shows a 12% increase to 2.07 million tons, and UOB also expects an increase of 8 - 12%. If these production forecasts are accurate, the inventory in October may increase to over 2.5 million tons. Attention should be paid to the MPOB report next Monday [5][7]. - SPPOMA predicts a 6.8% month - on - month increase in Malaysian palm oil production in the first 5 days of November. The rainfall forecast indicates that most producing areas will be dry in the next week, with more rainfall in parts of southern Malaysia. The drought will ease in the next two weeks, and southern Malaysia will still have relatively high rainfall [7]. - Some reports predict that the Malaysian palm oil production in the 2025/26 season may be 19.2 million tons, while this year's production is 19.38 million tons. Currently, the market expects the production in the new season to be flat or slightly lower year - on - year [7]. 3.1.2 International Market - Indonesian Palm Oil - Recently, the prices of Indonesian fruit bunches and CPO tender prices have been fluctuating weakly, currently lower than last year but still at a relatively high level in the same historical period. This year's production in Indonesia has recovered beyond market expectations, and Gapki has recently raised this year's production forecast to 56 - 57 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8 - 10%. Some reports predict that the palm oil production in Indonesia in the 2025/26 season will be 51 million tons, 4% higher than the previous forecast but still lower than last year. The production forecast for the 2024/25 season has been raised to 53 million tons, reflecting better - than - expected production in July and August. Overall, the market has different forecasts for the production of Indonesian palm oil in the new year [10]. - The Indonesian Statistics Bureau shows that the exports of palm oil and refined palm oil from January to September this year were 17.58 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.62% [10]. 3.1.3 International Market - Indian Palm Oil and Edible Oil - Due to increased domestic inventory, weak demand in the food industry, and a narrowing price difference with other oilseeds, India's palm oil imports in October dropped to a five - year low of 750,000 tons. The main reason for the decrease in imports is the sufficient inventory in Indian ports and warehouses, currently holding over 1.2 million tons of edible oil. In addition, the relatively low prices of soybean oil and sunflower oil have prompted refineries to change their preferences [13]. - Traders said that India's total edible oil imports in the 2024/25 season increased slightly by 0.3% year - on - year to 16 million tons. Among them, palm oil imports decreased by 16% year - on - year to 7.56 million tons, the lowest level in five years; soybean oil imports increased by 61.6% year - on - year to a record 5.56 million tons; and sunflower oil imports decreased by 17.7% year - on - year to 2.88 million tons, the lowest level in three years. This week, there were rumors that India had purchased over 100,000 tons of palm oil and some soybean oil, with the shipping dates mainly concentrated in December and later [13]. 3.1.4 Domestic Palm Oil - As of October 31, 2025 (week 44), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 592,800 tons, a decrease of 14,300 tons from the previous week, a decline of 2.36%. Recently, the palm oil inventory has decreased slightly and is at a neutral level in the same historical period. The origin quotes are stable, and the import profit inversion has narrowed, currently around - 300. It is rumored that three ships were purchased this week, and it is expected that the palm oil purchases in October and November will exceed 200,000 tons. The basis is stable. Attention should be paid to future domestic purchases and arrivals [16]. 3.1.5 Domestic Soybean Oil - As of October 31, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 1.2158 million tons, a decrease of 34,500 tons from the previous week, a decline of 2.76%. Currently, the soybean oil inventory is at a relatively high level in the same historical period, but the inventory inflection point may have been reached, and the basis is strengthening steadily. This week, the total spot trading volume of soybean oil was 81,000 tons, an increase from the previous week, but the overall trading volume is still weak [20]. - China has lowered the import tariff on US soybeans to 13%, but it is still difficult for commercial purchases. However, it is rumored that domestic purchases of US soybeans have begun. Attention should be paid to the purchase rhythm of US soybeans. In the short term, the domestic soybean oil supply is sufficient, the price increase is weak, and there is a lack of obvious drivers. It is expected to maintain a volatile trend [20]. 3.1.6 Domestic Rapeseed Oil - As of October 31, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 514,000 tons, a decrease of 21,000 tons from the previous week. It is still at a high level in the same historical period, but the inventory is continuously decreasing marginally. Currently, the rapeseed inventory has reached the bottom, and the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills this week was 0 tons, with an operating rate of 0%. It is rumored that Australian rapeseed will arrive at the end of the year, which is the first export of Australian rapeseed to China in five years. The FOB quote of European rapeseed oil has remained stable at around $1,100, and the import profit inversion of European rapeseed oil has widened to around - 1,100. The market still has a sentiment of holding back sales at high prices, and the domestic rapeseed oil basis is strengthening steadily. It is expected that the coastal inventory decline trend will continue [23]. 3.1.7 Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral strategy: After a significant decline, the oil market has stabilized and is experiencing a technical rebound. However, in the short term, there is still a lack of obvious drivers, and the expected increase is limited. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [27]. - Arbitrage strategy: Long OI 1 - 5 spread and short P1 - 5 spread [27]. - Option strategy: Wait and see [27]. 3.2 Second Part: Weekly Data Tracking - The report provides a large amount of data on the production, export, inventory, consumption, and price of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in Malaysia, Indonesia, India, and the domestic market, as well as data on the import, consumption, and basis of various oils in the domestic market [31][38][43]. These data are presented in the form of tables and charts, including monthly and weekly data, which can be used to track the market trends of the oil industry.

Core Insights - The domestic futures market for oilseeds and oils showed significant gains on November 6, with the main soybean futures rising nearly 2% [1] - The main contracts for various oilseed products experienced mixed performance, with some increasing while others, like peanuts, saw a slight decline [1] Price Movements - Soybean oil futures opened at 8138.00 and closed at 8120.00, while palm oil opened at 8582.00 and closed at 8618.00 [2] - The main contracts for canola meal and soybean meal also showed upward trends, with canola meal rising to 2547.00 and soybean meal to 3073.00 [1][2] Warehouse Receipt Data - As of November 5, the number of warehouse receipts for canola oil decreased by 702 to 8738, while palm oil receipts increased by 650 to 650 [3] - Soybean meal receipts decreased by 210 to 42122, and soybean oil receipts decreased by 200 to 27444 [3] Basis and Spot Prices - The basis for canola oil was reported at 302, with a basis rate of 3.10%, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4] - Other products like soybean and palm oil also showed positive basis values, reflecting a similar trend in the market [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The report presents the latest weekly data on the breeding industry chain, including the latest values, previous values, and weekly changes of various indicators for both soybean meal and oils, aiming to provide a data - based reference for the market situation of these products. 3. Directory Summaries 3.1 Soybean Meal Data - The 43% protein soybean meal's aggregated average price is 3067.00 yuan/ton, up 2.61% week - on - week [2]. - The soybean meal's futures - spot price difference is 41.00 yuan/ton, down 28.07% week - on - week [2]. - The output of 111 sample soybean meal enterprises is 154.68 million tons, down 4.42% week - on - week [2]. - The daily trading volume of soybean meal is 104300.00 tons, up 8.42% week - on - week [2]. - The apparent consumption of 111 sample soybean meal enterprises is 146.46 million tons, down 4.36% week - on - week [2]. - The inventory of 111 sample soybean meal enterprises is 102.25 million tons, up 8.74% week - on - week [2]. - The basis of the soybean meal's spot main contract is 101.29 yuan/ton, down 19.25% week - on - week [2]. 3.2 Oil Data - Palm oil inventory in China is 59.28 million tons, down 2.36% week - on - week [5]. - Rapeseed oil inventory in China is 51.60 million tons, down 3.73% week - on - week [5]. - Soybean oil inventory in China is 121.58 million tons, down 2.76% week - on - week [5]. - The futures - spot price difference of palm oil in China is - 1.00 yuan/ton, up 100.00% week - on - week [5]. - The futures - spot price difference of rapeseed oil in China is 488.00 yuan/ton, up 3.83% week - on - week [5]. - The futures - spot price difference of soybean oil and palm oil in China is - 318.00 yuan/ton, down 48.71% week - on - week [5]. - The basis of the palm oil's spot main contract is - 42.00 yuan/ton, down 167.74% week - on - week [5]. - The basis of the rapeseed oil's spot main contract is 356.50 yuan/ton, up 20.54% week - on - week [5]. - The basis of the soybean oil's spot main contract is 250.74 yuan/ton, down 17.69% week - on - week [5].

Core Insights - The domestic futures market for oilseeds and oils showed a positive trend on November 3, with the main contract for rapeseed meal rising over 4% [1] - The main contracts for palm oil and soybean meal also experienced increases, while soybean oil saw a slight decline [1] Price Movements - Rapeseed meal main contract rose by 4.14% to 2489.00 CNY/ton - Palm oil main contract increased by 1.41% to 8676.00 CNY/ton - Soybean meal main contract went up by 1.60% to 3053.00 CNY/ton - Soybean oil main contract decreased by 0.56% to 8106.00 CNY/ton [1][2] Warehouse Data - As of October 31, the warehouse receipts for soybean oil remained stable at 27,644 lots - The warehouse receipts for soybean one increased by 48 lots to 7,238 lots - The warehouse receipts for soybean meal remained unchanged at 42,332 lots [3] Basis Data - The phenomenon of "backwardation" was observed in several contracts, where spot prices exceeded futures prices - For example, the basis for rapeseed oil was 284 CNY with a basis rate of 2.91% - The basis for rapeseed meal was 103 CNY with a basis rate of 4.13% [3]