油脂油料早报 研究中心农产品团队 2026/01/08 隔 夜 市 场 信 息 ： 截至1月1日当周，美国大豆出口销售料净增75-160万吨 分析师的预估显示，截至1月1日当周，美国大豆出口销售料净增75-160万吨。其中2025-26年度料净增75-130万 吨，2026-27年度料净增0-30万吨。 美国豆粕出口销售料净增10-35万吨。其中2025-26年度料净增10-30万吨，2026-27年度料净增0-5万吨。美国豆油 出口销售料净增0-3万吨。其中2025-26年度料净增0-2万吨，2026-27年度料净增0-1万吨。 机构预计截至12月1日美国大豆库存为32.50亿蒲式耳，为2019年以来同期最高 USDA将在1月12日1700GMT(北京时间1月13日凌晨1点）发布季度谷物库存报告。报告发布前，机构平均预期截至12 月1日的大豆库存为32.50亿蒲式耳，较去年同期增加4.8%，为2019年以来最高同期库存。 Anec：巴西2026年大豆出口料创下1.12亿吨纪录新高 巴西谷物出口商组织Anec主管SergioMendes周三在采访中称，巴西大豆贸易商预计2026年将向中国出口7，700万吨 大 ...

油脂油料早报 研究中心农产品团队 2026/01/06 隔 夜 市 场 信 息 ： 1月1日止当周美国大豆出口检验量为980,518吨，符合预期 美国农业部公布的周度出口检验报告显示，截至2026年1月1日当周，美国大豆出口检验量为980,518吨，此前市场 预估为75-115万吨，前一周修正后为773,600吨，初值为750,312吨。 当周，对中国大陆的大豆出口检验量为397，069吨，占出口检验总量的40.5%。 截至2025年1月2日当周，美国大豆出口检验量为1,295,819吨。 本作物年度迄今，美国大豆出口检验量累计为16,401,241吨，上一年度同期为29,967，442吨。 12月25日止当周美国大豆出口销售合计净增124.41万吨，符合预期 12月25日止当周，美国当前市场年度大豆出口销售净增117.77万吨，较之前一周增加19%，较前四周均值减少20%。 市场预估为净增70-180万吨。其中，对中国大陆出口销售净增39.64万吨。 当周，美国下一年度大豆出口销售净增6.64万吨。市场预估为净增0-15万吨。其中，对中国大陆出口销售净增6.6 万吨。 当周，美国大豆出口装船122万吨。较之 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive overview of the overnight and spot market conditions for various commodities, including palm oil, crude oil, soybeans, and related products. It also presents important fundamental information such as weather conditions in major crop - producing regions, international and domestic supply - demand situations, and relevant economic and policy news. These factors collectively influence the market trends of the commodities [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overnight Market Conditions - **Commodity Futures**: The closing prices and daily/overnight percentage changes of various commodity futures are presented. For example, the closing price of BMD March palm oil is 4035.00, with a previous - day decline of 0.02%. Brent March crude oil on ICE closed at 61.84, down 0.13% from the previous day and 0.23% overnight [1]. - **Currency Exchange Rates**: The latest exchange rates and their percentage changes are given. The US dollar index is at 97.95, up 0.01%. The CNY/USD exchange rate is 7.0471, down 0.07% [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Conditions - **Futures - Spot Price Relationship**: The spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil 2605, DCE豆油 2605, and DCE豆粕 2605 in different regions are provided. For example, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2605 in North China is 8600, with a basis of 90 and a basis change of - 20 [2]. - **Imported Soybean Quotes**: The CNF premiums and quotes for imported soybeans from different regions are presented. The CNF premium for Brazilian soybeans is 150 cents per bushel, and the CNF quote is 446 dollars per ton [2]. 3.3 Important Fundamental Information - **Weather Conditions in Producing Areas** - **Brazil**: Weather conditions in most soybean - producing areas are generally favorable for crops, although some regions may face flood risks, and a lack of rainfall in certain areas is a concern [4]. - **Argentina**: Soil moisture in most soybean - producing areas is suitable for soybean growth, and upcoming fronts will bring precipitation [4]. - **International Supply - Demand** - **Palm Oil**: Malaysia's palm oil production from December 1 - 20 decreased by 7.44%. Indonesia's actions against illegal palm oil enterprises may disrupt production and increase global prices [6]. - **Soybeans**: Argentina's soybean sales data for the 2024/25 and 2025/26 seasons are reported, along with the procurement by local oil mills and the export industry [8]. - **Freight Index**: The Baltic Dry Index decreased slightly but had the largest annual increase since 2016. Different types of ships' freight indices and daily earnings changes are provided [9]. - **Domestic Supply - Demand** - **Oil and Meal**: On December 24, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased, while the trading volume of soybean meal increased. The national average oil - mill operating rate rose [11]. - **Agricultural Product Prices**: The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" decreased. The average prices of pork and eggs also declined [11]. - **International Economic Data** - **Interest Rate Expectations**: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in January and March 2026 is presented [12]. - **Unemployment and Mortgage Rates**: The US initial jobless claims for the week ending December 20 were 21.4 million, lower than expected. The 30 - year fixed - mortgage rate decreased [12]. - **Data Release Delay**: Due to the US federal government holiday, the release of EIA's crude oil and natural gas inventory data was postponed [12]. - **Domestic News** - **Exchange Rate**: On December 24, the USD/CNY exchange rate decreased, indicating RMB appreciation [14]. - **Monetary Policy**: The central bank carried out 260 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on December 24, resulting in a net withdrawal of 208 billion yuan. On December 25, it will conduct 4000 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations [14]. 3.4 Fund Flows On December 24, 2025, the futures market had a net inflow of 205.42 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net inflow of 63.14 billion yuan, with different sub - sectors having different net inflow/outflow situations. Stock index futures had a net inflow of 141.68 billion yuan, and treasury bond futures had a net inflow of 0.86 billion yuan [17]. 3.5 Arbitrage Tracking There is no specific content provided in the report for this section.

Group 1: Overall Market Conditions - Overseas, Fed official Milan said there's no short - term recession, but rising unemployment may prompt the Fed to turn dovish and cut rates. The market risk appetite is good, with tech stocks driving the US stocks up, the US Treasury yield rising to 4.16%, and the US dollar index dropping to 98.2. Japanese officials signaled possible foreign exchange intervention, strengthening the yen. Geopolitical issues pushed up oil prices. Risk assets are supported by sentiment and liquidity in the short - term, but caution is needed due to approaching holidays [2] - In China, the LPR has remained unchanged for seven consecutive months. The 5 - year LPR in December is 3.5%, and the 1 - year is 3%. The probability of a rate cut or reserve requirement ratio cut this year is low, with the next possible rate cut expected early next year. A - shares rose on Monday, with the ChiNext and STAR Market rebounding over 2%. Over 2900 stocks closed up, and the trading volume expanded to 1.88 trillion. The market may maintain a wide - range weak - oscillating pattern in the short - term. The bond market readjusted, lacking a clear direction [3] Group 2: Precious Metals - International precious metal futures continued to rise strongly on Monday. COMEX gold futures rose 2.13% to $4480.60 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 2.37% to $69.09 per ounce. Domestic platinum and palladium futures hit the daily limit, and the overseas platinum price reached a new high. The rise is due to the resonance of macro, fundamental, and capital factors. The weakening of the US dollar credit supports gold in the long - term. Silver's strategic position in green energy and high - end manufacturing attracts funds, and platinum and palladium face supply shortages and strong industrial demand [4][5] Group 3: Copper - The Shanghai copper main contract continued to rise on Monday, and LME copper approached $12000. The spot market trading was poor, with domestic trade copper at a discount of 195 yuan/ton. The LME inventory decreased to 15.7 million tons, and the COMEX inventory increased to 46.7 million tons. Fed official Milan maintained a dovish stance, and Trump will announce a new Fed chair in early January, likely to be more dovish. The global mine supply is tight, and the long - term TC benchmark price is 0 dollars/ton. The copper price is expected to remain strong in the short - term [6][7] Group 4: Aluminum - The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 2220 yuan/ton on Monday, up 0.82%. The LME closed at $2941 per ton, down 0.49%. The electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory increased by 2.2 million tons to 60 million tons on December 22. The Fed's expected rate cut next year is fermenting, and the LME aluminum reached a new high this year. The domestic aluminum price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short - term due to the fluctuating inventory [8] Group 5: Alumina - The alumina futures main contract closed at 2508 yuan/ton on Monday, down 1.18%. The spot alumina national average price was 2751 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton. The supply is expected to remain sufficient in the short - term, and the alumina price will continue to be under pressure [9] Group 6: Cast Aluminum - The cast aluminum alloy futures main contract closed at 21290 yuan/ton on Monday, up 0.66%. The raw material scrap aluminum supply is tight, and the cost support is strong. The supply decreased slightly due to environmental protection and cost - profit factors. The consumption is stable, and the cast aluminum price is expected to oscillate at a high level [10] Group 7: Zinc - The Shanghai zinc main contract oscillated narrowly on Monday. The social inventory increased to 12.45 million tons. The 11 - month zinc concentrate imports increased by 13.84% year - on - year and 52.27% month - on - month. The overall zinc price is expected to oscillate due to mixed Fed officials' views, changes in imports and exports, and consumption and supply factors [11][12] Group 8: Lead - The Shanghai lead main contract oscillated weakly on Monday. The social inventory decreased to 2.02 million tons. Near the end of the year, the supply and demand of the lead industry are both weak. The lead price is expected to maintain a weak and stable oscillation [13][14] Group 9: Tin - The Shanghai tin main contract oscillated narrowly on Monday. The 11 - month tin concentrate imports increased significantly, especially from Myanmar. The supply is expected to improve, and the tin price has a high - level adjustment risk [15][16] Group 10: Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon oscillated on Monday. The supply in Xinjiang is at a relatively high level, while that in the southwest is weak. The demand is mainly for historical orders. The industrial silicon price is expected to oscillate narrowly [17][18] Group 11: Steel Products - Steel futures oscillated and rebounded on Monday. The five major steel products' production and apparent demand adjusted slightly, and the inventory continued to decline. The steel price is expected to oscillate mainly, and attention should be paid to the acceptance of the price rebound [19] Group 12: Iron Ore - Iron ore futures oscillated and adjusted on Monday. The overseas shipment and arrival volume decreased this week, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. The demand is weak due to steel mills' production cuts and the off - season. The iron ore price is expected to oscillate under pressure [20] Group 13: Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal and coke futures oscillated on Monday. The third round of coke price cuts was implemented, reducing coking profits and weakening the procurement of raw coal. The coking coal supply is generally stable. The prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term [21] Group 14: Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - On Monday, the soybean meal 05 contract rose 0.18%, and the rapeseed meal 05 contract rose 0.56%. The US soybean export sales are still slow, and the domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high. The domestic rapeseed meal is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [22][23] Group 15: Palm Oil - The palm oil 05 contract rose 0.94% on Monday. The Malaysian palm oil production decreased, and the export demand improved. The domestic palm oil inventory increased slightly. The palm oil price is expected to stop falling and enter an oscillating state in the short - term [24][25]

Core Viewpoint - The oilseed market is experiencing a return to weakness after a brief rebound, driven by a lack of supportive fundamentals and concerns over inventory levels, particularly in palm oil and soybean oil [2][15]. Group 1: Palm Oil Market Analysis - MPOA's adjustment of November palm oil production and subsequent flooding speculation initially triggered a short-covering rally, but the market failed to sustain this momentum due to disappointing export figures leading to unexpected inventory accumulation of 2.84 million tons in November [2][16]. - High-frequency data indicates that palm oil production for December is expected to continue accumulating, with SPPOMA forecasting a 2.97% decrease in production for the first half of December compared to the previous month, which is significantly lower than the five-year average seasonal decline of 9.5% [5][19]. - The market anticipates that palm oil inventories could exceed 3 million tons in December, further suppressing bullish sentiment in the palm oil market [5][19]. Group 2: Soybean Oil Market Dynamics - The EPA's decision to delay the final rule for the Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) until the first quarter of next year has created uncertainty in the U.S. soybean oil market, dampening buying enthusiasm [8][22]. - The U.S. soybean crushing volume has reached a record high of 642 million bushels from September to November, a year-on-year increase of 12.5%, contributing to rising soybean oil inventories which reached 1.513 billion pounds at the end of November [8][22]. - The lack of clarity regarding biodiesel policies is expected to continue suppressing procurement activity at biodiesel plants, leading to further inventory pressure on soybean oil [12][26]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Overall, the oilseed market is characterized by a lack of bullish factors, with palm oil inventories at a record high and soybean oil facing increasing inventory pressures due to uncertain biodiesel policies [12][26]. - The focus for the short to medium term will be on palm oil's ability to reduce inventories and the pricing dynamics in the palm oil market, particularly in relation to Indian purchasing behavior and Indonesian palm oil pricing [12][26].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents overnight market information, export - sales data, import data, and production - inventory data of major countries in the oilseeds and oils market, as well as price data [1] 3. Summary by Related Content Overnight Market Information - A private exporter reported the sale of 114,000 tons of soybeans for delivery in the 2025/2026 marketing year to unknown destinations [1] US Export Sales Data - For the week ending November 27, US soybean export sales net increased by 1.106 million tons, down 52% from the previous week and 7% from the four - week average, with net sales of 2.142 million tons to the Chinese mainland; export shipments were 803,500 tons, up 5% from the previous week and down 25% from the four - week average. New sales were 1.2148 million tons for the current market year and 10,000 tons for the next market year [1] - For the week ending November 27, US soybean meal export sales net increased by 436,000 tons, up 189% from the previous week and 112% from the four - week average; export shipments were 367,400 tons, up 9% from the previous week and 22% from the four - week average. New sales were 487,600 tons for the current market year and 0 tons for the next market year [1] China's Import Data - In November 2025, China's edible oil imports were 1.03 million tons, up 42.9% year - on - year; cumulative imports from January to November were 9.03 million tons, up 5.9% year - on - year. Soybean oil imports were 50,000 tons, up 827.2% year - on - year; cumulative imports from January to November were 340,000 tons, up 23.8% year - on - year. Palm oil imports were 330,000 tons, up 97.8% year - on - year; cumulative imports from January to November were 2.29 million tons, down 7.6% year - on - year. Rapeseed and mustard oil imports were 170,000 tons, down 16.8% year - on - year; cumulative imports from January to November were 1.91 million tons, up 14.5% year - on - year [1] Indonesia's Production and Export Data - In October, Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased by 10% to 2.33 million tons compared to the previous month, despite increased production. Domestic consumption increased by 8.5% to 2.22 million tons. Crude palm oil production was 4.35 million tons, higher than 3.93 million tons in September. The 1 - 10 month crude palm oil production increased by nearly 10%. Palm oil product exports were 2.8 million tons, down about 3% from the previous year [1] Canada's Rapeseed Data - AAFC raised the forecast for Canada's rapeseed ending stocks in the 2025/2026 season by 450,000 tons to 2.95 million tons in its December 17 report, higher than 1.597 million tons in the 2024/2025 season. Rapeseed export forecast was raised from 7 million tons in November to 8 million tons, but still 1.3 million tons lower year - on - year. Domestic rapeseed use forecast reached a record high of 12 million tons [1] Price Data - The report provides the spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from December 12 to December 18, 2025 [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The U.S. soybean crush volume in November 2025 is expected to decline by 3.2% from October's record high but increase by 14.0% from November 2024 [1]. - The estimated soybean oil inventory of NOPA members as of November 30, 2025, is expected to reach a seven - month high, up 7.9% from the end of October and 29.9% from the previous year [1]. - From November 1 - 20, 2025, the U.S. 2025/26 soybean export sales are expected to net increase by 80 - 300 million tons, with 0 tons for 2026 - 27 [1]. - The 2025/26 global soybean export volume is expected to increase mainly driven by Brazil, while the exports of the U.S. and Argentina may decline [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil exports from December 1 - 10, 2025, increased by 46.98% compared to the same period last month [1]. Group 3: Summary by Category Overnight Market Information - U.S. November 2025 soybean crush volume is estimated to be 220.285 million bushels, with an estimated range of 213 million to 224.332 million bushels and a median of 220.85 million bushels [1]. - As of November 30, 2025, NOPA's soybean oil inventory is expected to be 1.408 billion pounds, with an estimated range of 1.32 billion to 1.508 billion pounds and a median of 1.4 billion pounds [1]. - From November 1 - 20, 2025, U.S. 2025/26 soybean export sales are expected to net increase by 80 - 300 million tons, 2025 - 26 U.S. soybean meal export sales by 10 - 45 million tons, and 2025 - 26 U.S. soybean oil export sales by 0.5 - 2.5 million tons [1]. - In 2025/26, Brazil's soybean exports are expected to reach a record 110 million tons, up 6.7% from 2024/25, and production is expected to reach 178.3 million tons, up 4.1% from the previous year [1]. - In 2025/26, the U.S. soybean exports are expected to be 43 million tons, down 14% from 2024/25, and Argentina's soybean exports are likely to decline due to reduced production and increased crush volume [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil exports from December 1 - 10, 2025, were 280,048 tons, up 46.98% from the same period last month [1]. Spot Price - The spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from December 8 - 12, 2025, are presented in a table [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recent core events and market review show that the export of Indonesian palm oil from January to October 2025 increased by 7.83% year - on - year, and traders expect India's edible oil imports in November to decline by 11.5% month - on - month. This week, the performance of oils and fats was significantly differentiated. Palm oil showed an overall oscillating upward trend, while rapeseed oil fluctuated and declined after reaching the upper limit of the range. [4] - Malaysia's palm oil may experience production cuts and inventory accumulation in November. Later, as the production areas gradually enter the production - cut season, its inventory will gradually decrease, but the speed is expected to be slow. Indonesia's inventory remains at a relatively low level, and the origin quotations are stable with a slight increase. Currently, the inventory of soybean oil has reached an inflection point and is gradually decreasing, but the market lacks driving forces, and its price mainly fluctuates following the overall trend of oils and fats. In the short term, due to insufficient domestic rapeseed supply and limited rapeseed oil imports, domestic rapeseed oil inventory is expected to continue to decline, which still provides some support for rapeseed oil prices. [4][25] - Overall, short - term oils and fats lack continuous positive driving forces and are expected to maintain range - bound oscillations. [27] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 International Market 3.1.1 Malaysia's Palm Oil - Estimated institutions predict that Malaysia's palm oil production in November will decrease by 3% month - on - month to 1.98 million tons, exports will sharply decrease by 15% to 1.44 million tons, and inventory will accumulate to around 2.7 million tons, reaching a high level in the same period of history. Attention should be paid to next week's MPOB report. [9] 3.1.2 Indonesia's Palm Oil - Indonesian Bureau of Statistics data shows that the export of Indonesian palm oil in October was 1.91 million tons, and from January to October, the export volume was 19.49 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.83%. ITS data shows that the export volume in October was around 2 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 28%, but the overall data from ITS shows a decreasing trend. From January to October, the export volume was 20.35 million tons, a slight year - on - year decrease of 0.4%. In terms of different countries, the export volume to Africa increased by about 30%. [9] 3.1.3 India's Edible Oil Market - Traders expect India's edible oil imports in November to decline by 11.5% month - on - month to 1.18 million tons, reaching a seven - month low. Among them, palm oil imports slightly increased by 4.6% month - on - month to 630,000 tons, soybean oil imports may decrease by 12% to 400,000 tons, and sunflower oil imports decreased by 44% to 145,000 tons. The market expects that India's edible oil imports in the 25/26 season will continue to increase to over 17 million tons. Among them, soybean oil imports may decrease year - on - year but remain at a relatively high level, while palm oil imports will increase from 7.5 million to 9.3 million tons, showing a large increase. There are rumors that India has cancelled about 70,000 tons of soybean oil orders originally scheduled for delivery from December to January. Currently, the international price difference between soybean oil and palm oil continues to widen, and the cost - effectiveness of palm oil is gradually emerging, which is conducive to an increase in palm oil procurement to some extent. [12] 3.2 Domestic Market 3.2.1 Domestic Palm Oil - As of November 28, 2025 (week 48), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 653,500 tons, a decrease of 13,600 tons or 2.04% compared with last week. Recently, palm oil inventory is at a neutral level in the same period of history. The origin quotations are relatively stable, and the inversion of import profits has narrowed to around - 200. There are rumors of two ship purchases this week. The basis is stable with a slight decline. In the short term, oils and fats lack continuous positive driving forces. Palm oil is in a long - short game between the positive factor of production cuts caused by flood impacts and the suppression of relatively high inventory. Overall, palm oil is still in a range - bound bottom - grinding stage in the short term, and one can consider buying on dips and conducting high - selling and low - buying range operations. [15] 3.2.2 Domestic Soybean Oil - As of November 28, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions across the country was 1.1788 million tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons or 0.09% compared with last week. Currently, soybean oil inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period of history, but the inventory inflection point has been reached, and the basis is stable with a slight decline. Domestic demand is average, and trading has become dull. Traders mainly execute contracts. Later, as the arrival of soybeans gradually decreases and soybean crushing volume declines from a high level, soybean oil inventory may slightly decrease, but overall inventory is still sufficient. In the short term, domestic soybean oil supply is abundant, and the price increase is relatively weak, lacking obvious driving forces. It is expected to maintain range - bound oscillations. One can try to go long with a light position after the price stabilizes following a pullback. Attention should be paid to next week's USDA report. [20] 3.2.3 Domestic Rapeseed Oil - As of November 28, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 368,000 tons, a decrease of 17,000 tons compared with last week. It is still at a high level in the same period of history, but the inventory is continuously decreasing marginally. The FOB quotation of European rapeseed oil remains stable at around $1,100, and the inversion of import profits for European rapeseed oil has widened to around - 1,000. There are rumors of rapeseed oil imports this week. The basis of rapeseed oil remains at a high level, and the quotations in Sichuan and Chongqing regions are relatively high, but the downstream acceptance is general. It is expected that the inventory - decreasing trend in coastal areas will continue. In the short term, the overall increase of oils and fats is weak. Currently, the fundamentals of domestic rapeseed oil have not changed much. Due to insufficient rapeseed supply, high import costs, and the continuous marginal decrease of rapeseed oil inventory, there is still some support for rapeseed oil prices. Without a full - scale relaxation of rapeseed procurement, rapeseed oil may maintain range - bound oscillations. One can consider buying on dips at the lower limit of the range for OI03 or 05 contracts and conducting high - selling and low - buying range operations. [23] 3.3 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral strategy: Short - term oils and fats lack continuous positive driving forces and are expected to maintain range - bound oscillations. One can consider high - selling and low - buying range operations. - Arbitrage strategy: Wait and see. - Option strategy: Wait and see. [27]

油脂周报：两大月报中性偏多，油脂迎来弱反弹 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号：F3013727 投资咨询证号：Z0014425 目录 第一部分 周度核心要点分析及策略推荐 第二部分 周度数据追踪 GALAXY FUTURES 1 内容摘要 近期核心事件&行情回顾： 1. MPOB 12月棕榈油供需数据显示，马棕12月期末库存继续去库至170.9万吨，环比减少6.91%。其中产量减 8.3%至148.7万吨，出口大幅下滑约10%至134万吨。 2. USDA月报显示，美豆新作单产下调至50.7蒲/英亩，超市场预期，产量随之下调至43.66亿蒲，低于市场预期的 44.53亿蒲，也低于12月预计的44.61亿蒲，库消比从此前预计的10.81%降至8.74%。 3.目前马来和印尼均不存在库存压力，产地报价仍较为偏高，预计 1 季度两国合计库存仍持续处于中性偏低水平， 国内棕油进口利润倒挂，库存偏低，或将对棕榈油形成一定支撑，国内豆油库存较为中性短期或易降难增。临近春 节假期，资金避险情绪可能会增加以及宏观转弱，油脂市场缺乏强有力的驱动，油脂短期预计还将会维持震荡，可 能会出现弱反弹。 GALAXY FUTURES 2 国 ...

Core Insights - The recent floods in South and Southeast Asia have resulted in over 1,300 fatalities and at least $20 billion in economic losses, highlighting the increasing risks posed by climate change and extreme weather events in the region [1][8] Economic Impact - A series of three tropical cyclones combined with the northeast monsoon have caused unprecedented rainfall and destruction across multiple countries, affecting homes, infrastructure, and agricultural output [2] - The estimated economic losses from last month's floods are based on government and analyst assessments, which may be revised as further damage assessments are conducted [8] - Thailand's economy could face additional losses of up to $400 million per month if flooding conditions persist, particularly affecting high-value exports like electronics and auto parts [15] - Indonesia has experienced losses exceeding $4 billion, accounting for approximately 0.29% of its GDP, due to damage to infrastructure and agricultural output [16] Climate Change and Resilience - Climate change is identified as a significant factor exacerbating flooding risks in Southeast Asia, with predictions of more frequent "compound disasters" in the future [4][19] - The region has a high percentage of its population living in flood-prone areas, with 21% in Malaysia and around 20% in Indonesia, indicating a growing vulnerability as global warming accelerates [5] - Despite the risks, many Southeast Asian countries are lagging in building climate resilience, often prioritizing economic growth over necessary adaptation efforts [6] Political and Social Factors - In the Philippines, a corruption scandal related to flood mitigation funding has led to a pause in infrastructure projects, negatively impacting investor confidence and economic growth [7] - The intersection of political issues and inadequate climate adaptation efforts is particularly acute in the Philippines, affecting overall disaster response and recovery [7][12] Industry Response - While the immediate impact on industrial output from the recent storms has been limited, the long-term effects on supply chains and manufacturing remain uncertain [10][11] - Vietnam's economy has incurred approximately $3.2 billion in losses due to storm damage this year, nearing the record losses from previous severe weather events [18]