Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major domestic oils are oscillating. During the Spring Festival, the strengthening of crude oil boosted international vegetable oil prices, and the rise in CBOT oil prices led to a short - term oscillating and strengthening trend in domestic oil prices [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract was 8,824.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +126 yuan and a change rate of +1.45% - The closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract was 8,140.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +86.00 yuan and a change rate of +1.07% - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract was 9,200.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +162.00 yuan and a change rate of +1.79% [1] Spot - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,810.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +150.00 yuan and a change rate of +1.73%. The spot basis was P05 - 14.00, with a month - on - month change of +24.00 yuan - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,460.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +140.00 yuan/ton and a change rate of +1.68%. The spot basis was Y05 + 320.00, with a month - on - month change of +54.00 yuan - The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,950.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +160.00 yuan and a change rate of +1.63%. The spot basis was OI05 + 750.00, with a month - on - month change of - 2.00 yuan [1] Market Consultation - Canadian rapeseed (March shipment): C&F price was 564 dollars/ton, up 4 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; Canadian rapeseed (May shipment): C&F price was 572 dollars/ton, up 3 dollars/ton from the previous trading day - Argentine soybean oil (April shipment): C&F price was 1,202 dollars/ton, up 9 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; Argentine soybean oil (June shipment): C&F price was 1,171 dollars/ton, up 7 dollars/ton from the previous trading day - Imported rapeseed oil C&F quotes: Canadian rapeseed oil (February shipment) was 1,080 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; Canadian rapeseed oil (April shipment) was 1,060 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day - US Gulf soybeans (April shipment): C&F price was 508 dollars/ton, down 1 dollar/ton from the previous trading day; US West soybeans (April shipment): C&F price was 502 dollars/ton, down 1 dollar/ton from the previous trading day; Brazilian soybeans (April shipment): C&F price was 463 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day - Imported soybean premium quotes: Mexican Gulf (April shipment) was 231 cents/bushel, down 2 cents/bushel from the previous trading day; US West Coast (April shipment) was 215 cents/bushel, down 2 cents/bushel from the previous trading day; Brazilian ports (April shipment) was 112 cents/bushel, up 2 cents/bushel from the previous trading day [2] Group 4: Figures - There are 30 figures in the report, covering various aspects such as the average price, closing price, basis, spread, profit, output, volume, and inventory of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil [5]

综合来看，油脂市场多空并存，首先，美国生物柴油政策暂提供着重要长期支撑，当前预计2026年美国 生柴掺混义务量大幅增长，对油脂油料板块整体产生了一定的下方支撑，还需要紧盯美国RVO终案落 地进展。对于菜系方面，中加关系缓和，我国菜系原料供应紧张的格局面临被打破的格局，目前的变量 在于美加关系对我国菜系原料进口的影响，如果不出现较大变数，近强远弱的格局或逐渐形成，菜系上 方的压制力量不容忽视。棕榈油方面，马来最新的1月高频产量数据出现一定回落，但出口数据的环比 收紧幅度并不尽如人意，未来产地库存去化的节奏仍需进一步观察，如果产量降幅持续扩大，对油脂价 格的提振或逐渐明确。节后市场来看，假期期间原油价格的上行以及生柴政策可能出现进展的乐观预期 导致国内油脂油料节后开盘表现偏强。但目前基本面多空交织，提振力量能否支撑其持续上行，我们需 要等待美国生物柴油政策提供的油脂需求的中长期支撑最终落地，以及棕榈油产地基本面环比明显收 紧，才能给油脂多头更多的底气。 免责声明 本报告基于已公开的信息编制，我们力求信息及时、准确、完整，但不保证信息的绝对准确和完整。本 报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。投资 ...

Core Viewpoint - Palm oil leads the oilseed sector with a price increase of over 2% in the main contract, driven by seasonal production cuts overseas and domestic pre-holiday stocking for the Spring Festival, indicating a short-term bullish outlook for palm oil [3][7]. Group 1: Policy and Market Dynamics - Oilseed policies are centered around Indonesia and the United States, with Indonesia canceling the B50 biodiesel plan and extending the B40 plan until 2026, leading to reduced demand expectations [3][7]. - The U.S. biodiesel policy is set to be announced soon, which is expected to boost vegetable oil demand, with plans to finalize the biodiesel blending obligation of 5.2 to 5.6 billion gallons by March 2026, while also abandoning the RINs import reduction rule [3][7]. Group 2: Production and Export Trends - Seasonal production cuts have begun, with the Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) estimating a 14.43% month-on-month decrease in palm oil production from January 1 to 20 [3][7]. - High-frequency data indicates a month-on-month increase in palm oil exports of 7.97% to 9.97% from January 1 to 25 [3][7]. Group 3: Domestic Market Conditions - Domestic pre-holiday stocking and the release of spot demand are pushing oilseeds into a destocking phase, contributing to a collective rise in domestic oilseed futures [3][7]. - Palm oil has reached a three-month high, soybean oil a five-month high, and rapeseed oil a six-week high in the domestic market [3][7].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic oilseed market shows mixed performance with significant declines in canola seed futures, while other oil futures experience slight increases or decreases in prices [1] Price Movements - As of January 13, 2023, the main futures prices are as follows: - Canola oil increased by 0.69% to 9033.00 CNY/ton - Palm oil increased by 1.85% to 8818.00 CNY/ton - Soybean meal decreased by 0.29% to 2778.00 CNY/ton - Canola seed decreased by 5.93% to 5221.00 CNY/ton [1] - Opening and closing prices for various contracts on January 13, 2023, include: - Soybean oil: opened at 8008.00 CNY, closed at 7994.00 CNY - Palm oil: opened at 8746.00 CNY, closed at 8724.00 CNY - Canola oil: opened at 8974.00 CNY, closed at 8980.00 CNY - Soybean meal: opened at 2799.00 CNY, closed at 2790.00 CNY - Canola meal: opened at 2330.00 CNY, closed at 2330.00 CNY [2] Warehouse Receipt Data - As of January 12, 2023, warehouse receipts for various futures are reported as follows: - Soybean two futures: 400 contracts, unchanged from the previous trading day - Soybean oil futures: 29197 contracts, decreased by 229 contracts - Soybean meal futures: 25410 contracts, unchanged - Palm oil futures: 1448 contracts, increased by 200 contracts - Soybean one futures: 25546 contracts, decreased by 260 contracts - Canola meal futures: 84 contracts, unchanged - Canola oil futures: 2292 contracts, increased by 130 contracts - Peanut futures: 1855 contracts, increased by 239 contracts [3] Basis Data - The basis data as of January 12, 2023, indicates the following: - Canola oil: spot price 9882 CNY, futures price 8971 CNY, basis 911 CNY, basis rate 9.22% - Canola meal: spot price 2460 CNY, futures price 2328 CNY, basis 132 CNY, basis rate 5.37% - Palm oil: spot price 8620 CNY, futures price 8658 CNY, basis -38 CNY, basis rate -0.44% - Soybean one: spot price 4455 CNY, futures price 4349 CNY, basis 106 CNY, basis rate 2.38% - Soybean meal: spot price 3186 CNY, futures price 2786 CNY, basis 400 CNY, basis rate 12.55% - Soybean oil: spot price 8348 CNY, futures price 7972 CNY, basis 376 CNY, basis rate 4.50% [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - The overall edible oils in China showed a volatile trend this week. The total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils continued to decline slightly, but the overall inventory was still sufficient [4]. - Malaysian palm oil has entered the production - reduction period, with expected continuous production and inventory reduction in the later stage, but the inventory - reduction speed is slow, and high inventory may persist [4][28]. - Domestic soybean oil inventory is gradually decreasing, but the overall inventory is not expected to be tight. There are uncertainties in subsequent customs policies, and short - term performance is relatively good, but there are no prominent contradictions currently [4][23][28]. - Sino - Canadian relations show signs of improvement. Importing rapeseed for oil extraction is profitable at current prices. However, even if relations ease, it will take time for rapeseed to arrive at ports. In the short term, the near - month rapeseed oil contracts have both pressure and support [4][26][28]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Weekly Core Points Analysis and Strategy Recommendation International Market - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: Estimated that the production in December may drop to 1.76 million tons, exports may slightly increase to 1.25 million tons, and inventory may accumulate to nearly 3 million tons. High inventory will make subsequent inventory reduction slow, and the stock - to - sales ratio has increased significantly. The RBD price is around $1020, showing a volatile downward trend, and the decline space is expected to be limited. Attention should be paid to the MPOB report on Monday [5][8]. - **Indonesian Palm Oil**: The CPO spot price remains high at around $850, and the inventory is continuously low, with a firm price. Due to financial constraints, Indonesia may increase the palm oil export tax to support its biodiesel mission and may confiscate an additional 5 million hectares of palm oil plantations this year, causing palm oil prices to rise recently [8]. - **Indian Palm Oil**: The market expects India's edible oil imports to increase to over 17 million tons in the 25/26 fiscal year, with palm oil imports increasing from 7.5 million to 9.3 million tons. It is estimated that India will import only 500,000 tons of palm oil in December, while soybean oil and sunflower oil imports will increase significantly. The international price difference between soybean oil and palm oil is widening, and palm oil's cost - effectiveness is emerging, which is conducive to increased palm oil procurement to some extent [14]. Domestic Market - **Palm Oil**: As of January 2, 2026, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 726,700 tons, a decrease of 7,400 tons from the previous week, a decline of 1.01%. The basis is stable. The origin's quotation is stable, and the import profit inversion has narrowed, but domestic procurement enthusiasm is low. It is expected that inventory reduction will start in December, but the speed will be slow [17]. - **Soybean Oil**: As of January 2, 2026, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 1.081 million tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons from the previous week, a decline of 0.73%. The inventory has reached an inflection point, and the basis is stable with a slight decline. The peak of soybean arrivals in China has passed, and domestic soybean oil inventory is expected to gradually decrease after October, but the overall inventory will not be tight [23]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: As of January 2, 2026, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 273,000 tons, a decrease of 18,000 tons from the previous week. The 3 - 5 spread has weakened. Sino - Canadian relations are improving, and importing rapeseed for oil extraction is profitable. In the long - term, rapeseed oil is bearish, but in the short - term, the near - month contracts have support at the bottom and pressure at the top [26]. Strategy Recommendation - **Unilateral Strategy**: Edible oils are expected to continue to rebound in the short - term, but the rebound height may be limited, and the overall trend may be volatile. For palm oil, consider short - selling at the upper limit of the range. Soybean oil lacks driving factors and may follow the overall trend of edible oils. Rapeseed oil's core issue lies in policy changes, so it is recommended to wait and see [30]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Wait and see [30]. - **Options Strategy**: Wait and see [30]. Second Part: Weekly Data Tracking - **Malaysian Palm Oil Supply and Demand**: Data on monthly production, exports, and inventory of Malaysian palm oil are presented, showing trends over multiple years [35][36][37]. - **Indonesian Palm Oil Supply and Demand**: Data on monthly production, exports, and inventory of Indonesian palm oil are presented, showing trends over multiple years [40][41][43]. - **International Soybean Oil Market**: Data on NOPA's U.S. soybean crushing volume, U.S. soybean oil inventory, Brazilian and Argentine soybean crushing volumes and soybean oil inventories are presented, showing trends over multiple years [45]. - **Indian Edible Oil Supply and Demand**: Data on India's monthly edible oil consumption, imports, and port inventory are presented, including data on palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil imports, showing trends over multiple years [49][50][52]. - **Domestic Edible Oil Import Profit**: Data on the import profit of European rapeseed oil, domestic rapeseed oil, and 24 - degree palm oil are presented, showing trends over multiple years [61][62][63]. - **Domestic Soybean Oil Supply and Demand**: Data on domestic soybean weekly crushing volume, soybean oil weekly consumption, and trading volume are presented, showing trends over multiple years [65]. - **Domestic Palm Oil Supply and Demand**: Data on domestic palm oil monthly import volume, monthly sales volume, and weekly trading volume are presented, showing trends over multiple years [67]. - **Domestic Rapeseed Oil Supply and Demand**: Data on domestic rapeseed weekly crushing volume, rapeseed oil import volume, and monthly consumption are presented, showing trends over multiple years [69]. - **Domestic Edible Oil Spot Basis**: Data on the spot basis of first - grade soybean oil, 24 - degree palm oil, and domestic triple - refined rapeseed oil are presented, showing trends over multiple years [71][72][73]. - **Domestic Edible Oil Commercial Inventory**: Data on domestic soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, and total edible oil commercial inventories are presented, showing trends over multiple years [75][77][79].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The export sales of US soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil are expected to increase in different ranges in the weeks ending January 1, 2026 [1]. - The average institutional expectation for US soybean inventory as of December 1, 2026, is 3.25 billion bushels, a 4.8% increase from the same period last year, reaching the highest level since 2019 [1]. - Brazil's soybean exports in 2026 are expected to reach a record - high of 112 million tons, with a forecast of 24 million tons of soybean meal exports. However, exports to China may decrease by 10 million tons compared to 2025 [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil production in December 2025 decreased by 4.64% month - on - month. The 2025/26 annual production is expected to increase, with end - of - period inventory decreasing [1]. - Indonesia's 2025/26 palm oil production forecast remains unchanged at 51.2 million tons [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Market Information - US soybean export sales in the week ending January 1, 2026, are expected to net increase by 7.5 - 16 million tons, with 7.5 - 13 million tons for the 2025 - 26 season and 0 - 3 million tons for the 2026 - 27 season. US soybean meal export sales are expected to net increase by 1 - 3.5 million tons, and US soybean oil export sales are expected to net increase by 0 - 0.3 million tons [1]. - The average institutional expectation for US soybean inventory as of December 1, 2026, is 3.25 billion bushels, a 4.8% increase from the same period last year, the highest since 2019. The USDA will release the quarterly grain inventory report on January 13, 2026 (Beijing time) [1]. - Brazil's soybean exports in 2026 are expected to reach a record - high of 112 million tons, with exports to China expected to be 77 million tons, a decrease of 10 million tons from 2025. Brazil is also expected to export 24 million tons of soybean meal in 2026 [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil production in December 2025 decreased by 4.64% month - on - month to 1.84 million tons. The 2025/26 annual production is expected to be 19.7 million tons, with total supply of 22.56 million tons, exports of about 16.2 million tons, and end - of - period inventory decreasing from 2.36 million tons to 2.16 million tons [1]. - A commodity survey shows that Malaysia's 2025/26 palm oil production is expected to be 19.6 million tons, a 2.1% increase from the previous forecast. Indonesia's 2025/26 palm oil production forecast remains unchanged at 51.2 million tons [1]. Spot Prices - The spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from December 30, 2025, to January 7, 2026, are presented in a table, showing price fluctuations during this period [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The US soybean export inspection and sales data show a mixed performance, with export inspection volume in line with expectations and sales showing different growth trends compared to previous periods [1] - The Brazilian soybean production forecast has been raised, and the 2025 export volume reached a record high, while the Malaysian palm - oil inventory is expected to reach a near - seven - year high due to strong production [1] 3. Summary by Related Content US Soybean Export Data - As of the week ending January 1, 2026, the US soybean export inspection volume was 980,518 tons, in line with the market forecast of 750,000 - 1,150,000 tons. The export inspection volume to the Chinese mainland was 397,069 tons, accounting for 40.5% of the total. The cumulative export inspection volume this crop year is 16,401,241 tons, compared with 29,967,442 tons in the same period of the previous year [1] - For the week ending December 25, 2025, the net increase in US current - market - year soybean export sales was 117.77 million tons, a 19% increase from the previous week and a 20% decrease from the four - week average. The net increase in next - year's export sales was 6.64 million tons. The export shipment was 122 million tons, a 43% increase from the previous week and a 47% increase from the four - week average [1] US Soybean Meal Export Data - For the week ending December 25, 2025, the net increase in US current - market - year soybean meal export sales was 11.06 million tons, a 63% decrease from the previous week and a 73% decrease from the four - week average. The net increase in next - year's export sales was 4.18 million tons. The export shipment was 26.08 million tons, a 34% decrease from the previous week and a 25% decrease from the four - week average [1] Brazilian Soybean Data - Brazilian consulting firm StoneX raised its forecast for Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production to 177.6 million tons, a 0.2% increase from its December forecast and a 5.2% increase from the previous year, due to higher yields in Mato Grosso and favorable December weather [1] - BiondAgro also predicted a record - high Brazilian crop yield of 176.85 million tons [1] - Cargonave data showed that Brazil's 2025 soybean export volume reached a record high of 108.68 million tons, an 11.7% increase from 2024, and the soybean meal export volume also reached a record high, exceeding 23.07 million tons [1] Malaysian Palm - oil Data - SGS data showed that Malaysia's palm - oil product export volume in December 2025 was 1,000,703 tons, a 28.40% increase from the previous month [1] - A survey showed that Malaysia's December 2025 palm - oil inventory is expected to reach a near - seven - year high of 2.97 million tons, a 4.7% increase from November, due to strong monthly production. The crude palm - oil production is expected to be 1.76 million tons, the highest since December 2018, although it decreased by 9% from the previous month. Palm - oil product exports are expected to increase by 2.8% to 1.25 million tons [1] Indonesian Palm - oil Data - Indonesia's statistics showed that from January to November 2025, the country exported 20.85 million tons of crude and refined palm - oil, a 4.32% increase from the previous year, with a total export value of 21.63 billion US dollars. In November, the export volume was 1.36 million tons, a nearly 29% decrease from the previous year [1] Spot Price Data - The spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm - oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from December 26, 2025, to January 5, 2026, are provided, showing certain price fluctuations [1]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive overview of the overnight and spot market conditions for various commodities, including palm oil, crude oil, soybeans, and related products. It also presents important fundamental information such as weather conditions in major crop - producing regions, international and domestic supply - demand situations, and relevant economic and policy news. These factors collectively influence the market trends of the commodities [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overnight Market Conditions - **Commodity Futures**: The closing prices and daily/overnight percentage changes of various commodity futures are presented. For example, the closing price of BMD March palm oil is 4035.00, with a previous - day decline of 0.02%. Brent March crude oil on ICE closed at 61.84, down 0.13% from the previous day and 0.23% overnight [1]. - **Currency Exchange Rates**: The latest exchange rates and their percentage changes are given. The US dollar index is at 97.95, up 0.01%. The CNY/USD exchange rate is 7.0471, down 0.07% [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Conditions - **Futures - Spot Price Relationship**: The spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil 2605, DCE豆油 2605, and DCE豆粕 2605 in different regions are provided. For example, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2605 in North China is 8600, with a basis of 90 and a basis change of - 20 [2]. - **Imported Soybean Quotes**: The CNF premiums and quotes for imported soybeans from different regions are presented. The CNF premium for Brazilian soybeans is 150 cents per bushel, and the CNF quote is 446 dollars per ton [2]. 3.3 Important Fundamental Information - **Weather Conditions in Producing Areas** - **Brazil**: Weather conditions in most soybean - producing areas are generally favorable for crops, although some regions may face flood risks, and a lack of rainfall in certain areas is a concern [4]. - **Argentina**: Soil moisture in most soybean - producing areas is suitable for soybean growth, and upcoming fronts will bring precipitation [4]. - **International Supply - Demand** - **Palm Oil**: Malaysia's palm oil production from December 1 - 20 decreased by 7.44%. Indonesia's actions against illegal palm oil enterprises may disrupt production and increase global prices [6]. - **Soybeans**: Argentina's soybean sales data for the 2024/25 and 2025/26 seasons are reported, along with the procurement by local oil mills and the export industry [8]. - **Freight Index**: The Baltic Dry Index decreased slightly but had the largest annual increase since 2016. Different types of ships' freight indices and daily earnings changes are provided [9]. - **Domestic Supply - Demand** - **Oil and Meal**: On December 24, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased, while the trading volume of soybean meal increased. The national average oil - mill operating rate rose [11]. - **Agricultural Product Prices**: The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" decreased. The average prices of pork and eggs also declined [11]. - **International Economic Data** - **Interest Rate Expectations**: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in January and March 2026 is presented [12]. - **Unemployment and Mortgage Rates**: The US initial jobless claims for the week ending December 20 were 21.4 million, lower than expected. The 30 - year fixed - mortgage rate decreased [12]. - **Data Release Delay**: Due to the US federal government holiday, the release of EIA's crude oil and natural gas inventory data was postponed [12]. - **Domestic News** - **Exchange Rate**: On December 24, the USD/CNY exchange rate decreased, indicating RMB appreciation [14]. - **Monetary Policy**: The central bank carried out 260 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on December 24, resulting in a net withdrawal of 208 billion yuan. On December 25, it will conduct 4000 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations [14]. 3.4 Fund Flows On December 24, 2025, the futures market had a net inflow of 205.42 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net inflow of 63.14 billion yuan, with different sub - sectors having different net inflow/outflow situations. Stock index futures had a net inflow of 141.68 billion yuan, and treasury bond futures had a net inflow of 0.86 billion yuan [17]. 3.5 Arbitrage Tracking There is no specific content provided in the report for this section.

Group 1: Overall Market Conditions - Overseas, Fed official Milan said there's no short - term recession, but rising unemployment may prompt the Fed to turn dovish and cut rates. The market risk appetite is good, with tech stocks driving the US stocks up, the US Treasury yield rising to 4.16%, and the US dollar index dropping to 98.2. Japanese officials signaled possible foreign exchange intervention, strengthening the yen. Geopolitical issues pushed up oil prices. Risk assets are supported by sentiment and liquidity in the short - term, but caution is needed due to approaching holidays [2] - In China, the LPR has remained unchanged for seven consecutive months. The 5 - year LPR in December is 3.5%, and the 1 - year is 3%. The probability of a rate cut or reserve requirement ratio cut this year is low, with the next possible rate cut expected early next year. A - shares rose on Monday, with the ChiNext and STAR Market rebounding over 2%. Over 2900 stocks closed up, and the trading volume expanded to 1.88 trillion. The market may maintain a wide - range weak - oscillating pattern in the short - term. The bond market readjusted, lacking a clear direction [3] Group 2: Precious Metals - International precious metal futures continued to rise strongly on Monday. COMEX gold futures rose 2.13% to $4480.60 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 2.37% to $69.09 per ounce. Domestic platinum and palladium futures hit the daily limit, and the overseas platinum price reached a new high. The rise is due to the resonance of macro, fundamental, and capital factors. The weakening of the US dollar credit supports gold in the long - term. Silver's strategic position in green energy and high - end manufacturing attracts funds, and platinum and palladium face supply shortages and strong industrial demand [4][5] Group 3: Copper - The Shanghai copper main contract continued to rise on Monday, and LME copper approached $12000. The spot market trading was poor, with domestic trade copper at a discount of 195 yuan/ton. The LME inventory decreased to 15.7 million tons, and the COMEX inventory increased to 46.7 million tons. Fed official Milan maintained a dovish stance, and Trump will announce a new Fed chair in early January, likely to be more dovish. The global mine supply is tight, and the long - term TC benchmark price is 0 dollars/ton. The copper price is expected to remain strong in the short - term [6][7] Group 4: Aluminum - The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 2220 yuan/ton on Monday, up 0.82%. The LME closed at $2941 per ton, down 0.49%. The electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory increased by 2.2 million tons to 60 million tons on December 22. The Fed's expected rate cut next year is fermenting, and the LME aluminum reached a new high this year. The domestic aluminum price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short - term due to the fluctuating inventory [8] Group 5: Alumina - The alumina futures main contract closed at 2508 yuan/ton on Monday, down 1.18%. The spot alumina national average price was 2751 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton. The supply is expected to remain sufficient in the short - term, and the alumina price will continue to be under pressure [9] Group 6: Cast Aluminum - The cast aluminum alloy futures main contract closed at 21290 yuan/ton on Monday, up 0.66%. The raw material scrap aluminum supply is tight, and the cost support is strong. The supply decreased slightly due to environmental protection and cost - profit factors. The consumption is stable, and the cast aluminum price is expected to oscillate at a high level [10] Group 7: Zinc - The Shanghai zinc main contract oscillated narrowly on Monday. The social inventory increased to 12.45 million tons. The 11 - month zinc concentrate imports increased by 13.84% year - on - year and 52.27% month - on - month. The overall zinc price is expected to oscillate due to mixed Fed officials' views, changes in imports and exports, and consumption and supply factors [11][12] Group 8: Lead - The Shanghai lead main contract oscillated weakly on Monday. The social inventory decreased to 2.02 million tons. Near the end of the year, the supply and demand of the lead industry are both weak. The lead price is expected to maintain a weak and stable oscillation [13][14] Group 9: Tin - The Shanghai tin main contract oscillated narrowly on Monday. The 11 - month tin concentrate imports increased significantly, especially from Myanmar. The supply is expected to improve, and the tin price has a high - level adjustment risk [15][16] Group 10: Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon oscillated on Monday. The supply in Xinjiang is at a relatively high level, while that in the southwest is weak. The demand is mainly for historical orders. The industrial silicon price is expected to oscillate narrowly [17][18] Group 11: Steel Products - Steel futures oscillated and rebounded on Monday. The five major steel products' production and apparent demand adjusted slightly, and the inventory continued to decline. The steel price is expected to oscillate mainly, and attention should be paid to the acceptance of the price rebound [19] Group 12: Iron Ore - Iron ore futures oscillated and adjusted on Monday. The overseas shipment and arrival volume decreased this week, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. The demand is weak due to steel mills' production cuts and the off - season. The iron ore price is expected to oscillate under pressure [20] Group 13: Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal and coke futures oscillated on Monday. The third round of coke price cuts was implemented, reducing coking profits and weakening the procurement of raw coal. The coking coal supply is generally stable. The prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term [21] Group 14: Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - On Monday, the soybean meal 05 contract rose 0.18%, and the rapeseed meal 05 contract rose 0.56%. The US soybean export sales are still slow, and the domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high. The domestic rapeseed meal is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [22][23] Group 15: Palm Oil - The palm oil 05 contract rose 0.94% on Monday. The Malaysian palm oil production decreased, and the export demand improved. The domestic palm oil inventory increased slightly. The palm oil price is expected to stop falling and enter an oscillating state in the short - term [24][25]

Core Viewpoint - The oilseed market is experiencing a return to weakness after a brief rebound, driven by a lack of supportive fundamentals and concerns over inventory levels, particularly in palm oil and soybean oil [2][15]. Group 1: Palm Oil Market Analysis - MPOA's adjustment of November palm oil production and subsequent flooding speculation initially triggered a short-covering rally, but the market failed to sustain this momentum due to disappointing export figures leading to unexpected inventory accumulation of 2.84 million tons in November [2][16]. - High-frequency data indicates that palm oil production for December is expected to continue accumulating, with SPPOMA forecasting a 2.97% decrease in production for the first half of December compared to the previous month, which is significantly lower than the five-year average seasonal decline of 9.5% [5][19]. - The market anticipates that palm oil inventories could exceed 3 million tons in December, further suppressing bullish sentiment in the palm oil market [5][19]. Group 2: Soybean Oil Market Dynamics - The EPA's decision to delay the final rule for the Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) until the first quarter of next year has created uncertainty in the U.S. soybean oil market, dampening buying enthusiasm [8][22]. - The U.S. soybean crushing volume has reached a record high of 642 million bushels from September to November, a year-on-year increase of 12.5%, contributing to rising soybean oil inventories which reached 1.513 billion pounds at the end of November [8][22]. - The lack of clarity regarding biodiesel policies is expected to continue suppressing procurement activity at biodiesel plants, leading to further inventory pressure on soybean oil [12][26]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Overall, the oilseed market is characterized by a lack of bullish factors, with palm oil inventories at a record high and soybean oil facing increasing inventory pressures due to uncertain biodiesel policies [12][26]. - The focus for the short to medium term will be on palm oil's ability to reduce inventories and the pricing dynamics in the palm oil market, particularly in relation to Indian purchasing behavior and Indonesian palm oil pricing [12][26].