The EU and Indonesia have concluded talks on a free-trade deal that includes zero tariffs on palm oil exports from the South East Asian country. The draft agreement, described by EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič as “a game-changer for both our economies”, removes Indonesia’s duties on certain EU agri-food products. EU farming lobby groups Copa and Cogeca welcomed the deal, which will head to the European Council and European Parliament for approval. However, the zero-tariff rate on Indonesian palm o ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Global Commodities - **Key Focus**: Oil and Natural Gas Markets, Commodities Price Forecasts Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Oil Demand Growth**: Global oil demand expanded by 520 thousand barrels per day (kbd) year-over-year in September, with visible global liquids stocks rising by 72 million barrels (mb) [2] 2. **Ukraine's Strategic Shift**: Ukraine has intensified attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, indicating a strategic shift that could impact global energy markets [1] 3. **Fed's Rate-Cutting Cycle**: The Federal Reserve's cutting cycle began, historically leading to positive returns in commodities. Commodities averaged +15% returns nine months after similar cycles in 1995 and 2024 [5] 4. **Recession Risks**: Recession risks are elevated at 40%, with potential negative impacts on commodities if offsetting Chinese stimulus is not present [5] 5. **Inflation Concerns**: The risk of renewed inflation is high at 45%, particularly in the US, which may affect commodity prices [5] 6. **Natural Gas Storage Trends**: Weekly storage injections for natural gas are expected to be in the range of 70-90 Bcf through mid-October, with a preliminary estimate of a 73 Bcf injection for the upcoming report [9] 7. **Base vs. Precious Metals Performance**: There is a notable divergence in performance between base and precious metals following the first rate cut, with precious metals generally performing better [9] 8. **US Crude Output Resilience**: US crude output has remained resilient, averaging close to 300 kbd year-over-year from January to August 2025, with no significant pullback in operator activity [12] 9. **Permian Basin Activity**: Permitting data shows no signs of a slowdown in activity in the Permian Basin, with permit volumes 6% higher than the previous year [12] Additional Important Insights 1. **Global Commodity Open Interest**: The estimated value of global commodity market open interest surged to a 2025 year-to-date high, increasing by 4.1% week-over-week to $1.59 trillion [11] 2. **Natural Gas Market Dynamics**: Solar energy generation is significantly impacting realized and forecast gas-fired power generation, especially during the shoulder season [9] 3. **Metals Market Trends**: Industrial metals are lagging behind precious metals, with base metals like aluminum, zinc, and nickel consistently underperforming compared to copper [9] 4. **Price Forecasts**: Forecasts for WTI crude and Brent crude prices are projected to decline to $57 and $61 per barrel respectively by Q4 2025 [13] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and trends discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the global commodities market.

Core Insights - The domestic oilseed and oil futures market showed mixed performance on September 5, with canola and palm oil prices rising over 1% while soybean meal experienced a slight decline [1][2] Price Movements - Canola futures rose by 1.57% to 5225.00 CNY/ton - Palm oil futures increased by 1.34% to 9502.00 CNY/ton - Soybean meal futures decreased by 0.10% to 3060.00 CNY/ton - Soybean oil futures rose by 0.84% to 8418.00 CNY/ton [1] Futures Market Data - The opening and closing prices for various contracts on September 5 were as follows: - Soybean oil: Opened at 8340.00 CNY, closed at 8348.00 CNY - Palm oil: Opened at 9382.00 CNY, closed at 9376.00 CNY - Canola oil: Opened at 9725.00 CNY, closed at 9713.00 CNY - Soybean meal: Opened at 3043.00 CNY, closed at 3063.00 CNY - Canola meal: Opened at 2514.00 CNY, closed at 2524.00 CNY [2] Warehouse Receipt Data - As of September 4, warehouse receipts showed the following changes: - Soybean oil: Increased by 1284 contracts to 16344 contracts - Palm oil: Increased by 200 contracts to 639 contracts - Canola oil: Increased by 235 contracts to 6879 contracts - Soybean meal: Increased by 3750 contracts to 19375 contracts - Canola meal: Decreased by 210 contracts to 4846 contracts [3] Basis Data - The basis data as of September 4 indicated a phenomenon of "inverted futures" for several contracts, where spot prices exceeded futures prices: - Canola oil: Spot price 9858.33 CNY, futures price 9713 CNY, basis 145 CNY - Canola meal: Spot price 2631.67 CNY, futures price 2524 CNY, basis 107 CNY - Palm oil: Spot price 9400 CNY, futures price 9376 CNY, basis 24 CNY - Soybean one: Spot price 4305 CNY, futures price 3966 CNY, basis 339 CNY - Soybean meal: Spot price 3084 CNY, futures price 3063 CNY, basis 21 CNY - Soybean oil: Spot price 8428 CNY, futures price 8348 CNY, basis 80 CNY [4]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic oilseed market experienced a mixed performance on August 26, with palm oil futures declining over 1% while peanut futures saw a slight increase of 0.31% [1] Price Movements - As of August 26, the main futures prices are as follows: - Palm oil down 1.14% at 9504.00 CNY/ton - Soybean meal down 0.64% at 3090.00 CNY/ton - Rapeseed meal down 0.39% at 2549.00 CNY/ton - Peanut up 0.31% at 7802.00 CNY/ton [1][2] Warehouse Receipt Data - As of August 25, warehouse receipt data indicates: - Soybean oil futures unchanged at 15760 contracts - Palm oil futures unchanged at 0 contracts - Rapeseed oil futures unchanged at 3987 contracts - Soybean meal futures unchanged at 10925 contracts - Rapeseed meal futures decreased by 187 contracts to 8101 contracts - Soybean futures decreased by 115 contracts to 12082 contracts [3] Basis and Basis Rate - The basis and basis rates for various commodities are as follows: - Rapeseed oil: Basis 116, Basis Rate 1.16% - Rapeseed meal: Basis 61, Basis Rate 2.33% - Palm oil: Basis 24, Basis Rate 0.25% - Soybean: Basis 302, Basis Rate 7.02% - Soybean meal: Basis 10, Basis Rate 0.32% - Soybean oil: Basis 96, Basis Rate 1.12% [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term palm oil: 7 - month Malaysia palm oil inventory accumulation was less than expected, and it is expected to continue to increase production and accumulate inventory in August. Indonesia's production increased significantly in June, but the inventory remained low, and the price was firm. The short - term market may experience a callback due to weakened sentiment, but the callback range is expected to be limited, maintaining a buy - on - dips strategy [4][27]. - Short - term soybean oil: The US SRE application ruling has limited impact on the demand for biofuels. August is the critical growth period for US soybean pod setting. Weather conditions in August need to be closely monitored. If the weather is unfavorable, there is a risk of yield decline. There are rumors of domestic soybean oil exports. Supported by factors such as US biodiesel, soybean oil has strong support at the bottom and is expected to maintain a volatile and upward trend in the short term [4][22][27]. - Short - term rapeseed oil: The domestic rapeseed oil fundamentals have not changed much, with a supply - exceeding - demand pattern continuing. However, rapeseed oil inventory is gradually decreasing slightly, and there is still support at the bottom [4][25][27]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Recent Core Events & Market Review - Palm oil production and inventory: SPPOMA estimates that Malaysia's palm oil production from August 1 - 20 increased by 0.3% month - on - month, while MPOA estimates a 3% increase. Gapki data shows that Indonesia's palm oil production in June increased by 16% to 529 million tons, and inventory decreased to 253 million tons [4][8][12]. - US SRE application ruling: Among 175 SRE applications, 63 (36%) got full exemption, 77 (44%) got partial exemption, 28 (16%) were rejected, and 7 (4%) did not meet the exemption conditions. The total SRE exemption volume from 2016 - 2024 reached 5.34 billion RIN [13]. 3.2 International Market - Malaysia palm oil: It is estimated that the production in August will be around 1.88 million tons. The export in August was average, and the inventory is expected to increase to 2.2 - 2.3 million tons. The CPO spot price is oscillating strongly around 4,400 ringgit, and the later decline space may be limited [8]. - Indonesia palm oil: The production in June increased significantly, and the inventory continued to decrease. The annual production is expected to increase by more than 2 million tons year - on - year. The CPO tender price is oscillating strongly, and the inventory is expected to remain below 3 million tons in the next few months [12]. 3.3 Domestic Market - Domestic soybean oil: As of August 15, 2025, the commercial inventory was 1.1427 million tons, with a slight increase. The import volume of soybeans in August and September is expected to be 10 million tons per month on average, and the inventory will continue to accumulate. However, with factors such as reduced soybean arrivals and export rumors, there may be a slight inventory reduction later. Supported by US biodiesel, it is expected to maintain a volatile and upward trend [22]. - Domestic palm oil: As of August 15, 2025, the commercial inventory was 617,300 tons, with an increase of 2.92%. The import profit has improved, and the number of purchases has increased. The fundamentals are good, and it is advisable to buy on dips [19]. - Domestic rapeseed oil: As of August 15, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 660,000 tons, showing a continuous marginal decline. The import profit has an expanded deficit, and there are rumors of contract cancellations. The spot market is weak, and the basis is stable with a slight decline. It is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [25]. 3.4 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral strategy: Short - term oils may experience a callback, and it is advisable to buy on dips after the callback [29]. - Arbitrage strategy: Consider doing a positive spread on P1 - 5 after the callback [29]. - Option strategy: Stay on the sidelines [29].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas "rate - cut trading" is heating up, with the probability of a Fed rate cut in September reaching 94%. The dollar index has fallen, and the prices of gold, silver, and copper have rebounded, while OPEC+ production increases have pressured oil prices down. In China, the economy is in a weak recovery, the A - share market has risen with reduced trading volume, and the bond market has shown differentiation. The equity market may fluctuate and consolidate, and attention should be paid to bond market opportunities [2][3]. - The prices of precious metals, copper, and nickel are supported by the expectation of Fed rate cuts; the prices of aluminum, lead, tin, and industrial silicon face downward pressure due to factors such as inventory increases and weak demand; the price of lithium carbonate is in a state of multi - factor entanglement and fluctuates; the price of crude oil is affected by geopolitical factors and may fluctuate; the prices of steel products and iron ore are expected to fluctuate; the prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal may fluctuate upward, and the price of palm oil may fluctuate and adjust [4][6][8][11][13][15][16][19][21][22][23][25] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Main Variety Views Macro - Overseas: Fed official Daly signaled a dovish stance. The probability of a Fed rate cut in September reached 94%, and the market expected three rate cuts this year. The dollar index fell to 98.6, the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield dropped to 4.18%, and the U.S. stock market rebounded nearly 2%. The prices of gold, silver, and copper rebounded, while oil prices fell due to OPEC+ production increases. The reciprocal tariff 2.0 game is in the second half [2]. - Domestic: The economy is in a weak recovery. The A - share market rose with reduced trading volume, and the bond market showed differentiation. The equity market may fluctuate and consolidate, and attention should be paid to bond market opportunities [3]. Precious Metals - After the U.S. non - farm payrolls data was far lower than expected, the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September soared, boosting precious metal prices. Trump's tariff increase measures also increased inflation expectations and risk aversion, further boosting the price of gold. The short - term focus is on the resistance of the international gold price at $3450 per ounce, and the silver price may rebound more strongly after a significant correction [4][5]. Copper - Fed official Daly's dovish remarks and Trump's possible appointment of new Fed officials have increased the expectation of rate cuts, boosting market risk appetite and weakening the dollar index, which is beneficial to the metal market. The Skouries copper - gold project in Greece is expected to start production in early 2026, with an annual copper output of about 30,000 tons. It is expected that the Shanghai copper price will enter a rebound rhythm [6][7]. Aluminum - The EU will suspend tariff counter - measures against the U.S. for 6 months. Trump adjusted the tariff rates, and the average U.S. tariff reached 18.3%. The social inventory of aluminum continued to increase this week, and the spot market transaction premium continued to decline slightly. Macro and fundamental pressures have increased, and the aluminum price is expected to adjust [8]. Alumina - The futures price of alumina rose slightly. The futures spread structure is conducive to long - position roll - over, and the liquidity risk has decreased. The fundamental situation shows that the warehouse receipt inventory has not increased, the spot price is firm, and consumption is stable. It is expected that the alumina price will fluctuate [9]. Zinc - The EU's suspension of trade counter - measures against the U.S. and the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September have improved market risk appetite, and the zinc price has moved up slightly. However, the inventory continues to increase slightly, and the supply - demand pattern of increasing supply and weak demand remains unchanged. It is expected that the zinc price will fluctuate narrowly [10]. Lead - The lead price has fallen significantly, and the downstream consumption improvement is insufficient. The supply of primary lead and recycled lead is expected to recover, and the lead price will maintain a weak - side shock [11]. Tin - The operating rate of refined tin smelting enterprises has recovered, but the supply of tin ore and waste tin is still tight, and the downstream demand is weak. The social inventory has risen above 10,000 tons. It is expected that the tin price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term [13]. Industrial Silicon - The main contract of industrial silicon continued to decline. The supply is still shrinking, and the demand in the photovoltaic market is weak. The social inventory has increased, and the spot market price has been pressured. It is expected that the futures price will continue to adjust in the short term [14][15]. Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate fluctuated weakly. The supply side was affected by the suspension of a lithium mine project in Nigeria and the successful commissioning of a lithium carbonate project in Sichuan. The policy is in a state of correction, and the market fundamentals are still weak. It is expected that the lithium price will fluctuate [16][17]. Nickel - The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut has increased, and the dollar index has fallen, pushing up the nickel price. The price of nickel ore is firm, and the price of Indonesian nickel iron has increased, but the cost pressure remains. The spot trading of pure nickel is okay. It is expected that the nickel price will continue to fluctuate under the influence of repeated macro - expectations [18]. Crude Oil - U.S. economic data is lower than expected, increasing the expectation of Fed rate cuts. Geopolitical factors focus on U.S. sanctions against Russia, with the deadline on August 8th. If sanctions are implemented, oil prices may rise; otherwise, they may give back previous gains. In the short term, the oil market outlook is unclear, and it is advisable to wait and see [19]. Steel Products - The futures prices of steel products fluctuated. The fifth round of coke price increases was fully implemented. The production of five major steel products remained stable, the apparent demand weakened significantly, and the inventory increased significantly. With the approaching of the military parade production restrictions in the north in mid - August, the supply contraction expectation is increasing. It is expected that the futures price will maintain a fluctuating trend [20][21]. Iron Ore - The futures price of iron ore fluctuated and rebounded. Overseas shipments decreased this week, while arrivals increased, and supply remained stable. The daily average pig iron production of steel mills decreased slightly but remained above 2.4 million tons. It is expected that the iron ore price will mainly fluctuate in the short term [22]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The good - to - excellent rate of U.S. soybeans is 69%, at a relatively high level in the same period. The future precipitation in the U.S. soybean - producing areas is slightly lower than the average, with limited short - term impact. The domestic soybean purchase rhythm in the fourth quarter is slow, and the tight supply expectation may intensify. In the short term, the Dalian soybean meal may fluctuate upward [23][24]. Palm Oil - The market expects the inventory of Malaysian palm oil to increase in July. India's palm oil imports in July decreased, while soybean oil imports increased. The domestic palm oil inventory decreased slightly. In the short term, the palm oil price may fluctuate and adjust [25][27] 2. Metal Main Variety Trading Data - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, total trading volumes, total open interests, and price units of various metal futures contracts on August 4th, including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, gold, silver, steel products, iron ore, etc. [28] 3. Industrial Data Perspective - The report presents the price changes, inventory changes, and other data of metals such as copper, nickel, zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, tin, and precious metals from August 1st to August 4th, including futures prices, spot prices, inventory levels, and basis [29][30][31]

Group 1 - Report title: Weekly Oil Report: Malaysian Palm Oil Inventory Build-up Slightly Exceeds Expectations, Focus on Australian Prime Minister's Visit to China [1] - Core events and market review: MPOB data shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of June reached 2.03 million tons, a 2.4% increase month-on-month; Canada's rapeseed exports decreased by 72.1% to 48,400 tons in the week ending July 6; influenced by positive macro sentiment, oils rose significantly this week, but the momentum for further increase weakened after the rapid rise [4] Group 2 - International market - Malaysian palm oil: In June, Malaysia's palm oil inventory build-up slightly exceeded expectations, with production down 4.48% to 1.69 million tons and exports dropping to 1.26 million tons; SPPOMA data indicates that the production of Malaysian palm oil may increase month-on-month in July, and ITS predicts a 5.31% month-on-month increase in exports in the first 10 days of July [8] - International market - Canadian rapeseed: The international cost - performance of Canadian rapeseed declined, with exports decreasing by 72.1% week-on-week; the new planting area was adjusted down by 80,000 hectares; there is still a risk of drought, and Oil World predicts a potential production cut of about 1.86 billion tons [10] Group 3 - Domestic palm oil: As of July 4, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 538,100 tons, a 0.13% week-on-week increase; the basis fluctuated weakly; the spot market trading was light; it's expected to have limited upward space and may experience a slight correction, maintaining a sideways movement overall [13] - Domestic soybean oil: In June, the soybean crushing volume of 111 plants was about 8.95 million tons, and the soybean oil output was about 1.7 million tons; as of July 4, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions across the country was 1.0197 million tons, a 6.75% week-on-week increase; the basis was stable to slightly weak; the trading volume of soybean oil spot increased week-on-week but remained at a historically low level; it's expected to maintain a sideways movement [18] - Domestic rapeseed oil: Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 47,000 tons; as of July 4, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 719,000 tons, a 28,000 - ton week-on-week decrease; the import profit of European rapeseed oil was significantly narrowed; the spot market was light; the market is watching the Australian Prime Minister's visit to China on Saturday [21] Group 4 - Strategy recommendation: Unilateral strategy - In the short term, the upward movement of oils is losing steam, may experience a slight correction, and maintain a sideways trend overall. Consider buying on dips. Arbitrage strategy - Hold. Option strategy - Hold [25] Group 5 - Weekly data tracking: The report also tracks data on Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil production, exports, and inventory, international soybean oil market, Indian oil supply and demand, domestic rapeseed oil and palm oil import profits, domestic oils' supply and demand, basis, and inventory [27]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic oilseed market shows mixed performance, with canola meal futures rising while other oil futures decline as of June 30, indicating volatility in the sector [1]. Price Movements - Canola meal futures increased by 1.14% to 2572.00 CNY/ton - Canola oil futures decreased by 0.43% to 9421.00 CNY/ton - Palm oil futures fell by 0.69% to 8308.00 CNY/ton - Soybean oil futures dropped by 0.32% to 7976.00 CNY/ton [1][2]. Futures Market Data - Soybean oil opened at 7994.00 CNY, closing at 8002.00 CNY - Palm oil opened at 8366.00 CNY, closing at 8366.00 CNY - Canola oil opened and closed at 9466.00 CNY - Soybean meal opened at 2942.00 CNY, closing at 2938.00 CNY - Canola meal opened at 2558.00 CNY, closing at 2543.00 CNY [2]. Warehouse Receipt Data - Soybean oil warehouse receipts remained stable at 18882 lots - Palm oil warehouse receipts increased by 470 lots to 470 lots - Canola oil warehouse receipts remained stable at 300 lots - Soybean meal warehouse receipts rose by 9610 lots to 35561 lots - Canola meal warehouse receipts decreased by 1141 lots to 21544 lots [3]. Basis and Spot Prices - Canola meal spot price is 2475 CNY, with a futures price of 2509 CNY, resulting in a basis of -68 CNY and a basis rate of -2.75% - Palm oil spot price is 8586 CNY, with a futures price of 8366 CNY, resulting in a basis of 220 CNY and a basis rate of 2.56% - Soybean one spot price is 4295 CNY, with a futures price of 4144 CNY, resulting in a basis of 151 CNY and a basis rate of 3.52% - Soybean meal spot price is 2906 CNY, with a futures price of 2938 CNY, resulting in a basis of -32 CNY and a basis rate of -1.10% - Soybean oil spot price is 8254 CNY, with a futures price of 8002 CNY, resulting in a basis of 252 CNY and a basis rate of 3.05% [4].

Core Insights - The domestic futures market for oilseeds and oils showed a positive trend on June 16, with palm oil futures rising nearly 4% [1] - As of the latest data, palm oil futures increased by 3.76% to 8436.00 CNY/ton, while other oilseed futures like rapeseed meal and soybean oil also experienced price changes [1][2] Price Movements - Palm oil futures opened at 8170.00 CNY and closed at 8436.00 CNY, reflecting a significant increase [2] - Soybean oil futures rose by 2.57% to 7970.00 CNY, while rapeseed oil increased by 1.86% to 9476.00 CNY [1][2] Warehouse Receipt Data - As of June 13, soybean oil futures warehouse receipts remained stable at 17552 lots, while palm oil and rapeseed oil also showed no change [3] - A decrease was noted in warehouse receipts for soybean meal and rapeseed meal, with reductions of 81 lots and 60 lots respectively [3] Basis and Spot Prices - The basis for various oilseed contracts indicated a phenomenon of "inverted futures" where spot prices exceeded futures prices for rapeseed oil, palm oil, and soybean oil [3] - For instance, the basis for palm oil was 398 CNY, indicating a 4.67% basis rate, while soybean oil had a basis of 294 CNY, reflecting a 3.65% basis rate [4]

Core Insights - The domestic futures market for oilseeds showed a mixed performance on June 13, with palm oil futures rising over 2% [1] - As of the latest data, palm oil futures increased by 2.12% to 8178.00 CNY/ton, while canola oil and soybean oil also saw gains of 1.80% and 1.40%, respectively [1] Price Movements - The opening and closing prices for various oilseed futures on June 13 are as follows: - Soybean oil: Opened at 7720.00 CNY, closed at 7810.00 CNY - Palm oil: Opened at 8032.00 CNY, closed at 8178.00 CNY - Canola oil: Opened at 9205.00 CNY, closed at 9339.00 CNY - Peanut: Opened at 8208.00 CNY, closed at 8212.00 CNY [2] Warehouse Receipt Data - As of June 12, the warehouse receipt data indicated: - Soybean oil futures receipts decreased by 100 contracts to 17552 contracts - Palm oil futures receipts increased by 80 contracts to 540 contracts - Canola oil futures receipts increased by 100 contracts to 1185 contracts - Other oilseed futures such as soybean meal and canola meal saw slight decreases in receipts [3] Basis and Spot Prices - The basis and spot prices for various oilseed products are as follows: - Canola oil: Spot price at 9333.33 CNY, basis at 159 CNY, basis rate at 1.70% - Palm oil: Spot price at 8424 CNY, basis at 416 CNY, basis rate at 4.94% - Soybean oil: Spot price at 7954 CNY, basis at 252 CNY, basis rate at 3.17% - Notably, several contracts, including canola oil and palm oil, exhibited a 'backwardation' phenomenon where spot prices exceeded futures prices [4]