棕榈油期货仓单0手，环比上个交易日持平； 菜油期货仓单3987张，环比上个交易日持平； 豆粕期货仓单10925手，环比上个交易日持平； 菜粕期货仓单8101张，环比上个交易日减少187张； 豆一期货仓单12082手，环比上个交易日减少115手； 8月26日，国内期市油脂油料板块跌多涨少，棕榈油主力跌逾1%。截至目前，菜籽粕主力下跌0.39%， 报2549.00元/吨；棕榈油主力下跌1.14%，报9504.00元/吨；豆粕主力下跌0.64%，报3090.00元/吨；花生 主力上涨0.31%，报7802.00元/吨。 8月26日油脂油料期货价格行情 | 合约名称 | 开盘价 | 昨收价 | 昨结价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 豆油 | 8504.00 | 8488.00 | 8472.00 | | 棕榈油 | 9610.00 | 9582.00 | 9614.00 | | 菜籽油 | 9905.00 | 9891.00 | 9890.00 | | 豆粕 | 3122.00 | 3117.00 | 3110.00 | | 菜籽粕 | 2552.00 | 2547.00 | 2559. ...

油脂周报：美国SRE裁决出炉，油脂维持震荡偏强 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号：F3013727 投资咨询证号：Z0014425 第一部分 周度核心要点分析及策略推荐 第二部分 周度数据追踪 GALAXY FUTURES 1 内容摘要 近期核心事件&行情回顾： 1. SPPOMA预计8月前20日马棕产量环比上月同期增加0.3%，而MPOA预计马棕8月前20日产量预计增3%。Gapki数 据显示6月印棕产量大增16%至529万吨，6月出口表现也比较亮眼，致使6月印尼库存继续去库至253万吨。 2.周末EPA对175份SRE的申请最终决定，对63份申请获得全额豁免（占比36%），77份申请获部分豁免（占比 44%），28份申请被驳回（占比16%），另有7份申请不符合豁免条件（占比4%）。 目录 3. 7月马棕累库不及预期，预计8月继续增产累库，6月印尼产量大增，但库存持续偏低，其价格保持坚挺。短期盘 面或受情绪有所转弱而出现回调，但回调幅度预计有限，方向上维持逢低做多思路；美国SRE申请裁决落地，对生 物燃料的需求影响较为有限。8月将进入美豆结荚的关键生长期，还需重点关注8月的天气情况。若后续天气不利， 单产存在回 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas "rate - cut trading" is heating up, with the probability of a Fed rate cut in September reaching 94%. The dollar index has fallen, and the prices of gold, silver, and copper have rebounded, while OPEC+ production increases have pressured oil prices down. In China, the economy is in a weak recovery, the A - share market has risen with reduced trading volume, and the bond market has shown differentiation. The equity market may fluctuate and consolidate, and attention should be paid to bond market opportunities [2][3]. - The prices of precious metals, copper, and nickel are supported by the expectation of Fed rate cuts; the prices of aluminum, lead, tin, and industrial silicon face downward pressure due to factors such as inventory increases and weak demand; the price of lithium carbonate is in a state of multi - factor entanglement and fluctuates; the price of crude oil is affected by geopolitical factors and may fluctuate; the prices of steel products and iron ore are expected to fluctuate; the prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal may fluctuate upward, and the price of palm oil may fluctuate and adjust [4][6][8][11][13][15][16][19][21][22][23][25] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Main Variety Views Macro - Overseas: Fed official Daly signaled a dovish stance. The probability of a Fed rate cut in September reached 94%, and the market expected three rate cuts this year. The dollar index fell to 98.6, the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield dropped to 4.18%, and the U.S. stock market rebounded nearly 2%. The prices of gold, silver, and copper rebounded, while oil prices fell due to OPEC+ production increases. The reciprocal tariff 2.0 game is in the second half [2]. - Domestic: The economy is in a weak recovery. The A - share market rose with reduced trading volume, and the bond market showed differentiation. The equity market may fluctuate and consolidate, and attention should be paid to bond market opportunities [3]. Precious Metals - After the U.S. non - farm payrolls data was far lower than expected, the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September soared, boosting precious metal prices. Trump's tariff increase measures also increased inflation expectations and risk aversion, further boosting the price of gold. The short - term focus is on the resistance of the international gold price at $3450 per ounce, and the silver price may rebound more strongly after a significant correction [4][5]. Copper - Fed official Daly's dovish remarks and Trump's possible appointment of new Fed officials have increased the expectation of rate cuts, boosting market risk appetite and weakening the dollar index, which is beneficial to the metal market. The Skouries copper - gold project in Greece is expected to start production in early 2026, with an annual copper output of about 30,000 tons. It is expected that the Shanghai copper price will enter a rebound rhythm [6][7]. Aluminum - The EU will suspend tariff counter - measures against the U.S. for 6 months. Trump adjusted the tariff rates, and the average U.S. tariff reached 18.3%. The social inventory of aluminum continued to increase this week, and the spot market transaction premium continued to decline slightly. Macro and fundamental pressures have increased, and the aluminum price is expected to adjust [8]. Alumina - The futures price of alumina rose slightly. The futures spread structure is conducive to long - position roll - over, and the liquidity risk has decreased. The fundamental situation shows that the warehouse receipt inventory has not increased, the spot price is firm, and consumption is stable. It is expected that the alumina price will fluctuate [9]. Zinc - The EU's suspension of trade counter - measures against the U.S. and the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September have improved market risk appetite, and the zinc price has moved up slightly. However, the inventory continues to increase slightly, and the supply - demand pattern of increasing supply and weak demand remains unchanged. It is expected that the zinc price will fluctuate narrowly [10]. Lead - The lead price has fallen significantly, and the downstream consumption improvement is insufficient. The supply of primary lead and recycled lead is expected to recover, and the lead price will maintain a weak - side shock [11]. Tin - The operating rate of refined tin smelting enterprises has recovered, but the supply of tin ore and waste tin is still tight, and the downstream demand is weak. The social inventory has risen above 10,000 tons. It is expected that the tin price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term [13]. Industrial Silicon - The main contract of industrial silicon continued to decline. The supply is still shrinking, and the demand in the photovoltaic market is weak. The social inventory has increased, and the spot market price has been pressured. It is expected that the futures price will continue to adjust in the short term [14][15]. Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate fluctuated weakly. The supply side was affected by the suspension of a lithium mine project in Nigeria and the successful commissioning of a lithium carbonate project in Sichuan. The policy is in a state of correction, and the market fundamentals are still weak. It is expected that the lithium price will fluctuate [16][17]. Nickel - The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut has increased, and the dollar index has fallen, pushing up the nickel price. The price of nickel ore is firm, and the price of Indonesian nickel iron has increased, but the cost pressure remains. The spot trading of pure nickel is okay. It is expected that the nickel price will continue to fluctuate under the influence of repeated macro - expectations [18]. Crude Oil - U.S. economic data is lower than expected, increasing the expectation of Fed rate cuts. Geopolitical factors focus on U.S. sanctions against Russia, with the deadline on August 8th. If sanctions are implemented, oil prices may rise; otherwise, they may give back previous gains. In the short term, the oil market outlook is unclear, and it is advisable to wait and see [19]. Steel Products - The futures prices of steel products fluctuated. The fifth round of coke price increases was fully implemented. The production of five major steel products remained stable, the apparent demand weakened significantly, and the inventory increased significantly. With the approaching of the military parade production restrictions in the north in mid - August, the supply contraction expectation is increasing. It is expected that the futures price will maintain a fluctuating trend [20][21]. Iron Ore - The futures price of iron ore fluctuated and rebounded. Overseas shipments decreased this week, while arrivals increased, and supply remained stable. The daily average pig iron production of steel mills decreased slightly but remained above 2.4 million tons. It is expected that the iron ore price will mainly fluctuate in the short term [22]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The good - to - excellent rate of U.S. soybeans is 69%, at a relatively high level in the same period. The future precipitation in the U.S. soybean - producing areas is slightly lower than the average, with limited short - term impact. The domestic soybean purchase rhythm in the fourth quarter is slow, and the tight supply expectation may intensify. In the short term, the Dalian soybean meal may fluctuate upward [23][24]. Palm Oil - The market expects the inventory of Malaysian palm oil to increase in July. India's palm oil imports in July decreased, while soybean oil imports increased. The domestic palm oil inventory decreased slightly. In the short term, the palm oil price may fluctuate and adjust [25][27] 2. Metal Main Variety Trading Data - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, total trading volumes, total open interests, and price units of various metal futures contracts on August 4th, including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, gold, silver, steel products, iron ore, etc. [28] 3. Industrial Data Perspective - The report presents the price changes, inventory changes, and other data of metals such as copper, nickel, zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, tin, and precious metals from August 1st to August 4th, including futures prices, spot prices, inventory levels, and basis [29][30][31]

Group 1 - Report title: Weekly Oil Report: Malaysian Palm Oil Inventory Build-up Slightly Exceeds Expectations, Focus on Australian Prime Minister's Visit to China [1] - Core events and market review: MPOB data shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of June reached 2.03 million tons, a 2.4% increase month-on-month; Canada's rapeseed exports decreased by 72.1% to 48,400 tons in the week ending July 6; influenced by positive macro sentiment, oils rose significantly this week, but the momentum for further increase weakened after the rapid rise [4] Group 2 - International market - Malaysian palm oil: In June, Malaysia's palm oil inventory build-up slightly exceeded expectations, with production down 4.48% to 1.69 million tons and exports dropping to 1.26 million tons; SPPOMA data indicates that the production of Malaysian palm oil may increase month-on-month in July, and ITS predicts a 5.31% month-on-month increase in exports in the first 10 days of July [8] - International market - Canadian rapeseed: The international cost - performance of Canadian rapeseed declined, with exports decreasing by 72.1% week-on-week; the new planting area was adjusted down by 80,000 hectares; there is still a risk of drought, and Oil World predicts a potential production cut of about 1.86 billion tons [10] Group 3 - Domestic palm oil: As of July 4, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 538,100 tons, a 0.13% week-on-week increase; the basis fluctuated weakly; the spot market trading was light; it's expected to have limited upward space and may experience a slight correction, maintaining a sideways movement overall [13] - Domestic soybean oil: In June, the soybean crushing volume of 111 plants was about 8.95 million tons, and the soybean oil output was about 1.7 million tons; as of July 4, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions across the country was 1.0197 million tons, a 6.75% week-on-week increase; the basis was stable to slightly weak; the trading volume of soybean oil spot increased week-on-week but remained at a historically low level; it's expected to maintain a sideways movement [18] - Domestic rapeseed oil: Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 47,000 tons; as of July 4, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 719,000 tons, a 28,000 - ton week-on-week decrease; the import profit of European rapeseed oil was significantly narrowed; the spot market was light; the market is watching the Australian Prime Minister's visit to China on Saturday [21] Group 4 - Strategy recommendation: Unilateral strategy - In the short term, the upward movement of oils is losing steam, may experience a slight correction, and maintain a sideways trend overall. Consider buying on dips. Arbitrage strategy - Hold. Option strategy - Hold [25] Group 5 - Weekly data tracking: The report also tracks data on Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil production, exports, and inventory, international soybean oil market, Indian oil supply and demand, domestic rapeseed oil and palm oil import profits, domestic oils' supply and demand, basis, and inventory [27]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic oilseed market shows mixed performance, with canola meal futures rising while other oil futures decline as of June 30, indicating volatility in the sector [1]. Price Movements - Canola meal futures increased by 1.14% to 2572.00 CNY/ton - Canola oil futures decreased by 0.43% to 9421.00 CNY/ton - Palm oil futures fell by 0.69% to 8308.00 CNY/ton - Soybean oil futures dropped by 0.32% to 7976.00 CNY/ton [1][2]. Futures Market Data - Soybean oil opened at 7994.00 CNY, closing at 8002.00 CNY - Palm oil opened at 8366.00 CNY, closing at 8366.00 CNY - Canola oil opened and closed at 9466.00 CNY - Soybean meal opened at 2942.00 CNY, closing at 2938.00 CNY - Canola meal opened at 2558.00 CNY, closing at 2543.00 CNY [2]. Warehouse Receipt Data - Soybean oil warehouse receipts remained stable at 18882 lots - Palm oil warehouse receipts increased by 470 lots to 470 lots - Canola oil warehouse receipts remained stable at 300 lots - Soybean meal warehouse receipts rose by 9610 lots to 35561 lots - Canola meal warehouse receipts decreased by 1141 lots to 21544 lots [3]. Basis and Spot Prices - Canola meal spot price is 2475 CNY, with a futures price of 2509 CNY, resulting in a basis of -68 CNY and a basis rate of -2.75% - Palm oil spot price is 8586 CNY, with a futures price of 8366 CNY, resulting in a basis of 220 CNY and a basis rate of 2.56% - Soybean one spot price is 4295 CNY, with a futures price of 4144 CNY, resulting in a basis of 151 CNY and a basis rate of 3.52% - Soybean meal spot price is 2906 CNY, with a futures price of 2938 CNY, resulting in a basis of -32 CNY and a basis rate of -1.10% - Soybean oil spot price is 8254 CNY, with a futures price of 8002 CNY, resulting in a basis of 252 CNY and a basis rate of 3.05% [4].

Core Insights - The domestic futures market for oilseeds and oils showed a positive trend on June 16, with palm oil futures rising nearly 4% [1] - As of the latest data, palm oil futures increased by 3.76% to 8436.00 CNY/ton, while other oilseed futures like rapeseed meal and soybean oil also experienced price changes [1][2] Price Movements - Palm oil futures opened at 8170.00 CNY and closed at 8436.00 CNY, reflecting a significant increase [2] - Soybean oil futures rose by 2.57% to 7970.00 CNY, while rapeseed oil increased by 1.86% to 9476.00 CNY [1][2] Warehouse Receipt Data - As of June 13, soybean oil futures warehouse receipts remained stable at 17552 lots, while palm oil and rapeseed oil also showed no change [3] - A decrease was noted in warehouse receipts for soybean meal and rapeseed meal, with reductions of 81 lots and 60 lots respectively [3] Basis and Spot Prices - The basis for various oilseed contracts indicated a phenomenon of "inverted futures" where spot prices exceeded futures prices for rapeseed oil, palm oil, and soybean oil [3] - For instance, the basis for palm oil was 398 CNY, indicating a 4.67% basis rate, while soybean oil had a basis of 294 CNY, reflecting a 3.65% basis rate [4]

Core Insights - The domestic futures market for oilseeds showed a mixed performance on June 13, with palm oil futures rising over 2% [1] - As of the latest data, palm oil futures increased by 2.12% to 8178.00 CNY/ton, while canola oil and soybean oil also saw gains of 1.80% and 1.40%, respectively [1] Price Movements - The opening and closing prices for various oilseed futures on June 13 are as follows: - Soybean oil: Opened at 7720.00 CNY, closed at 7810.00 CNY - Palm oil: Opened at 8032.00 CNY, closed at 8178.00 CNY - Canola oil: Opened at 9205.00 CNY, closed at 9339.00 CNY - Peanut: Opened at 8208.00 CNY, closed at 8212.00 CNY [2] Warehouse Receipt Data - As of June 12, the warehouse receipt data indicated: - Soybean oil futures receipts decreased by 100 contracts to 17552 contracts - Palm oil futures receipts increased by 80 contracts to 540 contracts - Canola oil futures receipts increased by 100 contracts to 1185 contracts - Other oilseed futures such as soybean meal and canola meal saw slight decreases in receipts [3] Basis and Spot Prices - The basis and spot prices for various oilseed products are as follows: - Canola oil: Spot price at 9333.33 CNY, basis at 159 CNY, basis rate at 1.70% - Palm oil: Spot price at 8424 CNY, basis at 416 CNY, basis rate at 4.94% - Soybean oil: Spot price at 7954 CNY, basis at 252 CNY, basis rate at 3.17% - Notably, several contracts, including canola oil and palm oil, exhibited a 'backwardation' phenomenon where spot prices exceeded futures prices [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents overnight market information on the supply and demand of major oilseeds and oils, including export sales expectations of US soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil, export forecasts of Brazilian soybeans and soybean meal, and inventory, production, and export conditions of Malaysian palm oil [1]. - It also shows the spot prices of various oilseeds and oils in different regions from May 28 to June 4, 2025 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs USDA Report Forecast - As of the week ending May 29, US soybean export sales are expected to increase by 100,000 - 600,000 tons, with 100,000 - 500,000 tons for the 2024/25 season and 0 - 100,000 tons for the 2025/26 season [1]. - US soybean meal export sales are expected to increase by 200,000 - 700,000 tons, with 200,000 - 500,000 tons for the 2024/25 season and 0 - 200,000 tons for the 2025/26 season [1]. - US soybean oil export sales are expected to increase by 5,000 - 35,000 tons, with 5,000 - 25,000 tons for the 2024/25 season and 0 - 10,000 tons for the 2025/26 season [1]. Brazilian Export Forecast - Brazil's soybean exports in June are expected to be 1.255 million tons, lower than 1.383 million tons in the same period last year and 1.42 million tons in May [1]. - Brazil is expected to export 110 million tons of soybeans in 2025, which would set a new record [1]. - Brazil's soybean meal exports in June are expected to be 129,000 tons, lower than 205,000 tons in the same period last year [1]. Malaysian Palm Oil Survey - Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of May is expected to rise for the third consecutive month to 2.01 million tons, a 7.74% increase from April [1]. - Malaysia's crude palm oil production in May is expected to reach 1.74 million tons, a 3% increase from April [1]. - Palm oil product exports are expected to soar 17.9% to 1.3 million tons [1]. Spot Prices - The report provides the spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from May 28 to June 4, 2025 [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the recent increase in the palm oil export tax by Indonesia is considered excessive and misguided by industry stakeholders [1] Group 2 - The Indonesian Palm Oil Producers Association (GAPKI) has urgently called for a halt to the new export tax, indicating strong opposition from the industry [1] - The article highlights concerns that the tax increase could negatively impact the competitiveness of Indonesian palm oil in the global market [1] - There is a suggestion that the government should reconsider its approach to taxation in order to support the palm oil sector rather than hinder it [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term, it is expected that the inventory of Malaysian palm oil in April will increase significantly and continue to increase production and accumulate inventory later. However, the buying enthusiasm of China and India has increased recently. As Brazilian soybeans gradually arrive at ports and customs clearance issues are resolved, the domestic soybean crushing volume of oil mills will increase significantly, and the soybean oil inventory will start to accumulate seasonally, with the soybean oil basis likely to weaken. The fundamentals of domestic rapeseed oil change little, and the pattern of oversupply persists, but the rapeseed oil futures price fluctuates due to international relations [4][27]. - It is expected that the short - term oil market will maintain a volatile trend. Among them, soybean oil and rapeseed oil have positive support, while the fundamentals of palm oil are gradually weakening and may run weakly. From the perspective of the futures price, the downward space of palm oil may be limited. [29] Summary by Directory Part 1: Weekly Core Points Analysis and Strategy Recommendation Recent Core Events & Market Review - Three major forecasting agencies predict that the ending inventory of Malaysian palm oil in April may reach 1.79 million tons, and the production may increase by 17% to 1.62 million tons. The Gapki data shows that the production of Indonesian palm oil in February changed little month - on - month, exports reached 2.8 million tons, and the inventory dropped to a historically low level of 2.25 million tons [4]. International Market - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: Three major forecasting agencies estimate the production, import, export, domestic consumption, and inventory of Malaysian palm oil in April. The MPOB report will be released on Tuesday noon. The production in April is expected to increase significantly, but exports are still at a relatively low level in the same period of history [5][7]. - **Indonesian Palm Oil**: The inventory of Indonesian palm oil in February was at a low level, and biodiesel consumption may be better than expected. The market is still skeptical about the implementation of B40 in Indonesia, but the biodiesel consumption data shows good implementation. The origin quotation is weakening, and palm oil is regaining market share [11]. - **India**: The import of edible oil in India in April may drop to around 870,000 tons, and the port inventory may drop to about 810,000 tons. The import and refining profits of the three major oils have improved, and the recent purchasing enthusiasm for palm oil has increased [16]. Domestic Market - **Palm Oil**: As of May 2, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil decreased by 3.23% week - on - week to 356,100 tons, still at a relatively low level. The import profit inversion has narrowed, and there were many purchases this week. The spot trading volume increased, and the basis was stable. The downward space of palm oil futures price may be limited [19]. - **Soybean Oil**: As of May 2, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil increased by 0.23% week - on - week to 619,900 tons, at a neutral - to - slightly - low level. The soybean crushing volume increased, and the basis decreased. With the arrival of Brazilian soybeans, soybean oil will enter a stage of inventory accumulation, and the basis will be weak. The market is concerned about the implementation of US biodiesel [22]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed crushing volume decreased last week. As of May 2, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory increased to 835,500 tons, at a historically high level. The import profit inversion of European rapeseed oil expanded. The spot trading volume increased slightly, and the basis decreased slightly. The futures price is affected by policies and maintains a wide - range volatile trend [25]. Strategy Recommendation - **Unilateral Strategy**: It is expected that the short - term oil market will maintain a volatile trend. Palm oil can be considered for light - position long - entry for a rebound or short - entry after a rebound. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Consider partial profit - taking and partial holding of YP09. - **Option Strategy**: Wait and see [29]. Part 2: Weekly Data Tracking This part mainly presents various data charts, including the monthly production, export, and inventory of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil; the supply and demand data of Indian oils; the import profit of domestic oils; the supply and demand and inventory data of domestic soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil; and the basis data of domestic oils [31][32][33].