国芯网[原:中国半导体论坛] 振兴国产半导体产业！ 不拘中国、 放眼世界 ！ 关注 世界半导体论坛 ↓ ↓ ↓ 11月12日消息，据外媒报道，三星、SK 海力士、铠侠、美光等全球八大 NAND 闪存制造商 正协同缩减今年下半年的 NAND 闪存供应量。 分析人士指出，此类减产不可避免将造成产出损失 —— 厂商一方面通过控制供应引导价格上 涨，另一方面正加速将生产线转向四层单元制程，以应对人工智能数据中心带动的强劲 QLC 需求增长。 与此同时， 三星电子、SK 海力士和铠侠正推动提升去年全年处于成本价水平的 NAND 闪存 价格 。其中，三星目前正与海外大型客户讨论明年的供货量，并在内部考虑将价格上调 20% 至 30% 以上。 ***************END*************** 半导体公众号推荐 半导体论坛百万微信群 加群步骤： 第一步：扫描下方二维码，关注国芯网微信公众号。 市场研究机构 Omdia 的年度 NAND 闪存产出数据显示：三星电子已将其今年 NAND 晶圆产 量目标下调至约 472 万片，较去年（507 万片）减少约 7%；铠侠亦将产量由去年的 480 万片调整为今年的 46 ...

Core Viewpoint - Increasing acceptance of the semiconductor storage supercycle concept, but ongoing controversies exist regarding demand, supply, and valuation of SanDisk, with Morgan Stanley maintaining a bullish outlook despite removing its "preferred" designation due to the need for profit growth to align with current stock prices [1] Group 1: Demand Growth and Shipment Impact - Morgan Stanley projects a 20-25% growth in industry bit output next year, the highest in recent years, with SanDisk expected to grow in line with this, and potentially outperform the industry due to new QLC products and flexible supply [1] - By 2026, AI and data centers are anticipated to significantly contribute to NAND industry growth, with enterprise SSDs expected to see a 40-50% year-on-year increase [1] Group 2: NAND Supply Growth Outlook - NAND supply growth is expected to be constrained in 2026, with SanDisk and Kioxia's joint venture being one of the few potential new wafer capacity sources [2] - Positive factors include limited investment in the first half of 2026, with significant spending recovery anticipated in the second half of 2026, aligning with comments from key semiconductor equipment suppliers [2] Group 3: Profitability Outlook and Trading Range - SanDisk's profitability is expected to improve significantly, with projected earnings per share of $16.35 in 2026, and potential peak earnings of $30 per share during this cycle [3] - In a baseline scenario, a 15% bit growth is expected in 2026, with a 12% decrease in unit bit costs and a 14.4% increase in pricing, supporting a gross margin of 45.7% [3] - In an optimistic scenario, revenue could reach $13.1 billion with a gross margin of 50.3% and earnings per share of $26.26, with potential for earnings to exceed $30 if margins reach the mid-50% range [3] Group 4: Product Portfolio Concerns - SanDisk's exposure in the enterprise SSD market is low, with only 12% of bit share in Q2, despite high demand for enterprise SSDs [4] - The company has lagged in the enterprise SSD sector but maintains stable bit share excluding Yangtze Memory Technologies, with potential for accelerated growth as production ramps up [4] Group 5: Long-term Growth Potential - The ability of NAND to leverage AI for profit and valuation expansion remains uncertain, with the need for enterprise SSDs to confirm their role as structural replacements for hard drives to strengthen long-term bullish logic [5] - The growth momentum needs to expand beyond single terminal markets, as NAND still heavily relies on smartphones and PCs, necessitating broader market participation to sustain demand cycles [6] Group 6: Price Target Adjustments - The target price for SanDisk has been raised to $230, with an optimistic scenario target of $300, reflecting an estimated price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 32 times based on historical earnings [6]

Core Viewpoint - Kioxia Holdings (Kioxia HD) is focusing on advancing its flagship product BiCS FLASH technology to meet the growing demands of artificial intelligence (AI) by enhancing bit density, reliability, performance, and energy efficiency [1][6]. Summary by Sections Memory Technology Evolution - Kioxia HD's memory capacity has increased from 4M bits in 1991 to 2T bits in the eighth generation of BiCS FLASH, representing a 500,000-fold increase [1]. - The company emphasizes that the cost competitiveness of NAND flash memory depends on the number of bits that can be loaded onto a chip, with various methods to increase bit density including layer stacking and architectural innovations [1][3]. Bit Density Maximization - Kioxia HD combines layer stacking with planar area reduction to maximize bit density, utilizing new architectures like CBA (CMOS Direct Bonding Array) and early adoption of QLC technology [3][4]. - The OPS (On Pitch SGD) technology has been developed in collaboration with partners to reduce area overhead in the word line layer, enhancing the efficiency of memory designs [3]. New Architectures and Technologies - The introduction of CBA technology in the eighth generation reduces wiring overhead between CMOS and memory cells, allowing for better performance under optimal conditions [4]. - Kioxia HD has been producing QLC products since the fourth generation of BiCS FLASH, balancing performance and reliability to lower costs [6]. Future Technology Strategy - The company plans to develop high-capacity and high-performance products by combining layer stacking and planar reduction, targeting enterprise and data center SSD markets [7]. - Kioxia HD aims to leverage CBA technology to create competitive products that meet advanced application demands while maintaining investment efficiency [9]. Market Expansion Efforts - Kioxia HD is exploring new markets beyond TLC and QLC NAND, including the development of OCTRAM for low-power AI applications and X-FLASH to bridge the latency gap between TLC NAND and DRAM [11]. - The CXL-XL memory, which allows memory sharing between CPUs, is set to address the growing need for large-capacity, low-latency memory solutions [13].

Core Viewpoint - The NAND Flash market is experiencing significant price declines and reduced shipment volumes in Q1 2025, with a forecasted recovery in Q2 2025 as inventory levels normalize and prices rebound [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - In Q1 2025, the average selling price (ASP) of NAND Flash is expected to decrease by 15% quarter-over-quarter, with shipment volumes down by 7%, leading to a nearly 24% decline in revenue for the top five NAND Flash manufacturers, totaling $12.02 billion [1][2]. - The top five NAND Flash suppliers hold a combined market share of 91.3% in Q1 2025, down from 84.3% in Q4 2024 [2]. Group 2: Company-Specific Performance - Samsung remains the market leader with Q1 revenue of $4.2 billion, a decrease of 25% due to reduced demand for enterprise SSDs, but expects recovery as NAND Flash wafer prices rebound and NVIDIA's new products are released [4]. - SK Group, including SK hynix and Solidigm, reported a revenue drop of 35.5% to $2.19 billion in Q1 2025, facing challenges from seasonal effects and high customer inventory levels [5]. - Micron achieved a revenue of $2.03 billion in Q1 2025, down 11%, benefiting from increased shipment volumes despite a decline in ASP [6]. - Kioxia's revenue fell to $1.92 billion in Q1 2025 due to weak seasonal demand, impacting both shipment volumes and ASP [7]. - SanDisk reported Q1 revenue of $1.7 billion, with slight declines in shipment volumes and ASP, and plans to enhance QLC product shipments to improve profitability [8].