上 市 公 司 基础化工 2025 年 07 月 21 日 昊华科技 (600378) —— 制冷剂价格持续上行，特品业务逐步恢复，25Q2 业绩超预期 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 增持（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 07 月 18 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 25.57 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 35.33/23.57 | | 市净率 | 1.9 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 1.12 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 27,425 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,534.48/10,913.84 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 03 月 31 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 13.42 | | 资产负债率% | 41.77 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 1,290/1,073 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 周超 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 (8621)23297818× zhouchao@sws ...

化工子行业年报和 1 季报深度梳理 - 氟化工 20240514 摘要 • 二代制冷剂（如 R22）价格连续两年上涨，2024 年二三季度涨幅显著， 四季度虽为淡季仍小幅抬升。2025 年一季度价格环比增长约 9%，同比增 长 10%。预计 2025 年配额削减将继续支撑价格上涨，二三季度涨幅或将 扩大。 • 2024 年四季度二代制冷剂产量同比下降 34%，2025 年一季度同比下降 18%。出口方面，2024 年四季度同比下降 13%，2025 年一季度同比下 降 38%。尽管出口量下降，但价格持续上涨且库存合理，预计后续价格仍 将上涨。 • 三代制冷剂（如 R32、R125、R134A）2024 年四季度配额紧张，部分 产品紧缺，溢价能力强劲。2025 年一季度淡季涨幅不逊于去年四季度， 企业议价权强。预计 2025 年上半年需求亮眼，下半年虽不确定，但议价 权提升逻辑不变。 • 空调行业表现良好，2024 年家用空调同比增长 19%，累计同比增长约 10%。2025 年一季度累计同比增长达 15%，支持了 R32 的涨价态势。 目前库存低位且合理，春节期间供给相对低位，行业控量明显。 Q&A 二代制冷 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported significant revenue and profit growth for FY2024 and Q1 2025, driven by rising prices of refrigerants and improved industry dynamics [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - For FY2024, the company achieved total revenue of 4.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.17%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 779 million yuan, up 178.40% [1]. - In Q4 2024, total revenue reached 1 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 37.98% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.10% [1]. - For Q1 2025, total revenue was 1.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.42% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 21.17% [1]. Product Pricing and Sales - The average selling price of refrigerants increased significantly, with FY2024 average price at 26,100 yuan/ton, up 28.17% year-on-year, and Q1 2025 average price at 37,400 yuan/ton, up 57% year-on-year [2]. - The external sales volume for refrigerants in FY2024 was 125,400 tons, a slight increase of 1.7% year-on-year, while Q1 2025 saw a decrease in sales volume to 27,100 tons, down 16.1% year-on-year [2]. Industry Trends - The refrigerant market is experiencing upward pricing trends due to supply constraints and improved competitive dynamics, with expectations for continued price increases into 2025 [3]. - As of April 28, 2025, the domestic market prices for key refrigerants R22, R32, R125, and R134a have increased by 9.1%, 12.8%, 7.1%, and 10.6% respectively since January 2, 2025 [3]. Strategic Developments - The company is actively enhancing its integrated supply chain, with several projects underway, including lithium hexafluorophosphate production and fluoropolymer projects, which are in various stages of completion [4]. - The company aims to leverage its position as a leading refrigerant manufacturer to capitalize on the ongoing upcycle in the refrigerant market, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 expected to grow significantly [4].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Juhua Co., Ltd., reported significant growth in its 2024 annual performance, driven primarily by the strong demand and price increase of refrigerants, despite challenges in other chemical product segments [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 24.462 billion yuan, an increase of 18.43% year-on-year [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.960 billion yuan, up 107.69% year-on-year [1] - The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 1.903 billion yuan, reflecting a 131.40% increase year-on-year [1] - In Q4 2024, total revenue was 6.556 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.21% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12.52% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders in Q4 was 0.702 billion yuan, up 256.83% year-on-year and 65.81% quarter-on-quarter [1] Product Performance - The refrigerant products experienced both volume and price increases, contributing to the overall performance growth [2] - The average selling price of refrigerants was 26,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 32.69% year-on-year, with external sales volume reaching 353,000 tons, up 22.61% year-on-year [2] - Non-refrigerant chemical products faced a challenging market with declining prices, impacting profitability [2] Market Trends - The upward trend in refrigerant prices is expected to continue into 2025 due to supply constraints and improved industry dynamics [3] - The domestic market prices for key refrigerants R22, R32, R125, and R134a have increased by 9.1%, 12.8%, 7.1%, and 10.6% respectively since January 2, 2025 [3] - Export prices for R32 refrigerant have shown consistency, indicating a strengthening of the company's market position [3] Investment Outlook - The company is positioned favorably within the fluorochemical industry, benefiting from the upward cycle of refrigerant prices and cost advantages from its integrated operations [4] - The profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised upwards, with expected net profits of 4.904 billion, 5.760 billion, and 6.416 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 150.25%, 17.46%, and 11.40% [4] - The company maintains a strong recommendation for investment based on its competitive positioning and growth potential in the refrigerant market [4]