第一上海发布研报称，维持东岳集团(00189)"买入"评级，预测公司2025-2027年的收入分别为160.9亿 元/174.7亿元/181.5亿元人民币;净利润分别为19.0亿元/25.8亿元/28.1亿元。给予公司2025年15xPE，目标 价18.9港元，较现价有57.5%的上涨空间。 第一上海主要观点如下： 上半年利润超预期 公司2025年上半年实现收入74.6亿元(人民币，下同)，同比增长2.8%;毛利率为29.1%，同比提升近9.3个 百分点;归母净利润7.8亿元，同比增长153.3%，略高于公司的盈喜预告。 制冷剂维持高景气度，价格持续攀升 集团制冷剂业务快速增长，成为公司业绩的重要支撑。2025年上半年实现收入22.9亿元，同比增长 47.7%。盈利10.3亿元，同比增长209.8%，分部利润率为44.9%，同比提升23.5个百分点，主要是受益于 R32、R22、R410a等主要产品价格有明显上涨。目前，截至9月12日，二代制冷剂R22价格为3.45万元/ 吨，较年初上涨2500元/吨。三代制冷剂方面，R134a价格为5.2万元/吨，较9月初上涨500元/吨;R32价格 为6.15万元/吨，较 ...

Core Viewpoint - First Shanghai maintains a "buy" rating for Dongyue Group (00189), predicting revenue and net profit growth from 2025 to 2027, with a target price of HKD 18.9, indicating a potential upside of 57.5% from the current price [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Dongyue Group achieved revenue of RMB 74.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, with a gross margin of 29.1%, up nearly 9.3 percentage points; net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 7.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 153.3%, slightly exceeding the company's profit forecast [1] Group 2: Refrigerant Business - The refrigerant business experienced rapid growth, contributing significantly to the company's performance, with revenue of RMB 22.9 billion in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 47.7%; profit reached RMB 10.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 209.8%, with a segment profit margin of 44.9%, up 23.5 percentage points, driven by significant price increases in key products [2] - As of September 12, 2025, the price of second-generation refrigerant R22 was RMB 34,500 per ton, up RMB 2,500 per ton since the beginning of the year; third-generation refrigerants R134a and R32 also saw price increases [2] Group 3: Fluoropolymer and Silicone Business - The fluoropolymer materials segment faced weak downstream demand, leading to a further decline in product prices; however, the company maintained a competitive advantage with superior product quality, achieving revenue of RMB 19.4 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 4.6%, and a segment profit margin of 13.4% [3] - The silicone segment experienced a significant decline in revenue and profit due to oversupply and weak downstream demand, with revenue of RMB 27.6 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 15.9%, and a segment profit margin of 0.38% [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-B" rating for the company [1][9]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 7.76 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 640 million yuan, up 20.8% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items reached 620 million yuan, a significant increase of 67.8% [4]. - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 4.6 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 26.1% and a year-on-year increase of 45.8%. The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q2 was 460 million yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 25.6% and a year-on-year increase of 148.9% [4]. - The company has seen strong performance in its refrigerant and specialty products segments, with significant growth in sales volume and pricing [6][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 7.76 billion yuan, with a net profit of 640 million yuan. The Q2 results showed a total revenue of 4.6 billion yuan and a net profit of 460 million yuan [4]. - The company’s basic and diluted earnings per share for the latest period were both 0.50 yuan, with a net asset return rate of 4.04% [3]. Business Segments - The refrigerant segment saw sales of 56,800 tons in the first half of 2025, with an average selling price of 43,800 yuan per ton, marking a year-on-year increase of 44.82% [6]. - The specialty products segment reported a net profit of 110 million yuan, benefiting from the growth in the commercial aerospace sector [6]. - The electronic gas segment achieved sales of 4,947 tons, with an average selling price of 95,500 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.05% [6]. Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.46 billion yuan, 2.01 billion yuan, and 2.46 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 26, 19, and 15 times [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the refrigerant industry [13]. Core Insights - The refrigerant industry is experiencing a price increase under quota control since 2024, with significant price rises observed for various refrigerants. The sustainability and potential for further price increases are areas of market concern, which the report aims to explore [5][8]. - The report emphasizes that the price increase is not driven by traditional supply-demand mismatches but rather reflects a new operational model in the industry. The supply side is characterized by high concentration and limited capacity for new entrants, particularly in China, which holds a dominant position in production and market share [8][40]. Summary by Sections Price Sustainability - The sustainability of price increases is linked to the current position of products within their cycles. The report suggests that refrigerants have moved beyond traditional cyclical logic, indicating a potential for long-term price increases [8][36]. - The supply side is constrained, with a high concentration of market players and limited ability to increase supply globally. This is further supported by the fact that the domestic market has significant production power [8][40]. Price Potential - The report discusses the potential for price increases, noting that the historical price elasticity of refrigerants allows for significant price tolerance. For instance, R32's price has risen from 1.70 million yuan/ton to 5.40 million yuan/ton, reflecting a 217.6% increase [23]. - The report argues that the long-term production costs of alternative refrigerants (like R1234yf) do not set a ceiling for the prices of existing refrigerants, suggesting that the price of third-generation refrigerants could continue to rise [9][69]. Long-term Investment Value - The report concludes that the refrigerant industry holds substantial long-term investment value, with companies increasingly approaching traditional chemical product valuation peaks. The ongoing price increases and the unique market dynamics suggest that related companies may be undervalued [10][11]. - Specific companies such as Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., Dongyue Group, Yonghe Co., and Haohua Technology are recommended for continued investment due to their strong market positions and growth potential [11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the chemical raw materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report indicates that the fluorochemical industry is entering a long-term prosperity cycle, with significant growth potential across various segments, including raw materials like fluorite, refrigerants, and high-end fluorinated materials [22][23] - The refrigerant market is experiencing a sustained upward trend, driven by high temperatures and improved demand, particularly in the air conditioning sector [21][22] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The fluorochemical index increased by 0.96% during the week of July 14-18, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.54% [6][25] - The average price of fluorite (97% wet powder) remained stable at 3,200 CNY/ton as of July 18, 2025, with a year-on-year decrease of 13.61% [7][32] Refrigerant Market - As of July 18, 2025, the prices for various refrigerants are as follows: R32 at 54,000 CNY/ton, R125 at 45,500 CNY/ton, R134a at 50,000 CNY/ton, R410a at 49,500 CNY/ton, and R22 at 35,000 CNY/ton [20][24] - The report highlights that R32 and R134a prices have increased by 50.00% and 61.29% respectively compared to 2024 [45] Company Performance - Companies such as Dongyangguang, Juhua, and Sanmei are expected to report significant profit increases for the first half of 2025, with growth rates ranging from 136% to 192.81% [9][10] - Recommended stocks include Jinshi Resources, Juhua, Sanmei, and Haohua Technology, which are positioned to benefit from the ongoing trends in the fluorochemical sector [10][22]

Group 1: Company Performance Overview - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of approximately 7.29 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.96% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was approximately 413 million CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 27.3% [2] - The net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses was about 384 million CNY, down 33.81% year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in chemical product prices [2] Group 2: Market and Operational Adjustments - The company is actively adjusting production and sales strategies in response to market demand fluctuations and changes in oil prices [2] - The company emphasizes energy conservation and efficiency improvements to mitigate market risks and maximize economic benefits [1] Group 3: Dividend Policy - The profit distribution plan for 2024 proposes a cash dividend of 3.50 CNY per 10 shares (tax included), which has already been implemented [2] - Future dividend plans will consider operational performance, cash flow, and shareholder returns, adhering to regulatory requirements [2] Group 4: Competition and Market Strategy - The company signed a framework cooperation agreement with a subsidiary of Haohua Technology to address competition issues related to certain products [2] - The company will continue to monitor market trends and adjust strategies to maintain production and sales balance [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the chemical raw materials industry is optimistic (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The refrigerant market continues its upward trend, with firm pricing observed [4][22] - The fluorochemical industry chain is entering a long-term prosperity cycle, with significant growth potential across various segments [22][23] Summary by Sections 1. Fluorochemical Industry Overview - The fluorochemical index increased by 1.4% during the week of June 30 to July 4, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.002% and the CSI 300 Index by 0.14% [6][26] - The index closed at 4161.71 points, outperforming the basic chemical index by 0.73% and the new materials index by 0.12% [6][26] 2. Fluorspar Market - As of July 4, the average market price for 97% wet fluorite powder was 3,200 CNY/ton, down 2.88% from the previous week and down 13.61% year-on-year [7][33] - The market is experiencing a stalemate due to high inventory levels and weak demand, leading to a subdued trading atmosphere [19][34] 3. Refrigerant Market - As of July 4, refrigerant prices showed an upward trend: R32 at 53,000 CNY/ton (+0.95%), R125 at 45,500 CNY/ton (unchanged), R134a at 49,500 CNY/ton (+1.02%), R410a at 49,500 CNY/ton (+1.02%), and R22 at 35,000 CNY/ton (unchanged) [8][20][47] - The market for refrigerants remains stable, with companies raising prices to boost confidence despite seasonal demand challenges [21] 4. Beneficiary Companies - Recommended stocks include Jinshi Resources, Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Haohua Technology, with other beneficiaries being Dongyangguang, Yonghe Co., Dongyue Group, and Xinzhou Bang [10][22][23]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the chemical raw materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The refrigerant market is experiencing an upward trend, supported by a well-defined business model and ongoing validation of industry logic [4] - The fluorochemical industry is entering a long-term prosperity cycle, with significant growth potential across the entire supply chain, from raw materials like fluorite to high-end fluorinated materials and fine chemicals [20] Summary by Sections 1. Fluorochemical Market Overview - The fluorite market is under pressure, with the average market price for 97% wet fluorite at 3,387 CNY/ton as of June 6, down 3.09% week-on-week and 9.85% year-on-year [6][17] - The market is characterized by weak demand and a surplus of supply, leading to a negative feedback loop that suppresses immediate purchasing needs [17][32] 2. Refrigerant Market Trends - As of June 20, refrigerant prices are on an upward trend: R32 at 52,000 CNY/ton (+0.97% week-on-week), R125 at 45,500 CNY/ton (unchanged), R134a at 48,500 CNY/ton (unchanged), R410a at 48,500 CNY/ton (unchanged), and R22 at 35,000 CNY/ton (-2.78%) [7][18][45] - The external trade market for refrigerants shows stability, with R32 external reference price at 51,000 CNY/ton (unchanged) and R22 at 32,000 CNY/ton (unchanged) [7][18] 3. Beneficiary Companies - Recommended beneficiary companies include Jinshi Resources, Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Haohua Technology, with other beneficiaries being Dongyangguang, Yonghe Co., Dongyue Group, and Xinzhou Bang [9][20]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Luxi Chemical (000830), is actively managing its production and sales in response to market conditions, while also addressing safety and operational efficiency concerns. The company reported a mixed performance in Q1 2025, with revenue growth but a decline in net profit due to market price fluctuations. Group 1: Production and Operations - The overall production and operational situation of the company is stable, with enhanced safety management measures in place to address seasonal challenges and external safety conditions [2] - The company is focusing on energy conservation, quality improvement, and maximizing economic benefits by adjusting production, sales, and procurement in response to market changes [2] Group 2: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of approximately 7.29 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.96%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders was about 413 million yuan, a decrease of 27.3% year-on-year [3][7] - The net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses was approximately 384 million yuan, down 33.81% year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in the prices of certain chemical products, which fell more than the decrease in raw material costs [3][7] Group 3: Market Outlook and Strategy - The company anticipates that the market prices of chemical products will fluctuate due to various factors, making predictions challenging. It plans to adjust its strategies in line with market changes to mitigate risks and enhance cost management [6] - The company has signed a framework cooperation agreement with Sinochem Blue Sky to address competition issues related to certain products, indicating a strategic move to streamline operations and enhance market positioning [5] Group 4: Dividend Policy - The company has proposed a cash dividend of 3.50 yuan per 10 shares for the 2024 fiscal year, which has already been implemented. Future dividend policies will be determined based on profitability, cash flow, and regulatory requirements [4] Group 5: Analyst Ratings and Predictions - Over the past 90 days, six institutions have provided ratings for the stock, with five recommending a buy and one recommending an increase. The average target price set by analysts is 13.34 yuan [8] - Detailed profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027 indicate varying net profit estimates from different institutions, reflecting a range of expectations for the company's financial performance in the coming years [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the chemical raw materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The refrigerant market is experiencing an upward trend, with continuous validation of industrial logic, suggesting active investment opportunities [4] - The fluorochemical industry chain has entered a long-term prosperity cycle, with significant growth potential across various segments, including refrigerants and high-end fluorinated materials [20] Summary by Sections 1. Fluorochemical Market Overview - The fluorochemical index increased by 4.23% during the week of June 2 to June 6, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.10% [5][22] - The average price of 97% wet fluorite was 3,387 CNY/ton, down 3.09% week-on-week, while the average for June was 3,416 CNY/ton, down 9.85% year-on-year [6][29] 2. Refrigerant Market Trends - As of June 6, 2025, the prices for various refrigerants are as follows: R32 at 51,000 CNY/ton, R125 at 45,500 CNY/ton, R134a at 48,500 CNY/ton, R410a at 48,500 CNY/ton, and R22 at 36,000 CNY/ton, with most prices stable compared to the previous week [7][18] - The market is seeing a significant increase in demand for refrigerants post-Duanwu Festival, with prices expected to rise further in June [19] 3. Recommended Stocks - Recommended stocks include Jinshi Resources, Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Haohua Technology, with other beneficiaries being Dongyangguang, Yonghe Co., Dongyue Group, and Xinzhoubang [9][20]