开源证券近日发布氟化工行业周报：本周（11月10日-11月14日）氟化工指数上涨 7.71%，跑赢上证综指7.89%。本周（11月10日-11月14日）氟化工指数收于5006.51点，上涨 7.71%，跑赢上证综指7.89%，跑赢沪深300指数8.80%，跑赢基础化工指数4.15%，跑赢新材 料指数7.39%。 以下为研究报告摘要： 本周（11月10日-11月14日）行情回顾 市场中，R32与R134a维持坚挺向上趋势，R125短期稳健运行，而R143a、R507、R404等品 种则表现偏弱，整体产业链呈现结构性分化格局。 公告&要闻：昊华气体三氟化氮项目成功投产；澳大利亚制冷剂或面临涨价【昊华气 体】昊华气体6000吨三氟化氮项目成功投产，该项目总投资11.3亿元，项目全面建成后，预 计可实现年产值7亿元。 【制冷剂】澳大利亚制冷剂协会称，目前制冷剂的进口量与所需量之间已存在显著缺 口，制冷剂价格在短短几年内已上涨两倍，且未来可能继续涨价。 受益标的 推荐标的：金石资源、巨化股份、三美股份、昊华科技等。其他受益标的：东阳光、永 和股份、东岳集团、新宙邦等。 本周氟化工指数上涨7.71%，跑赢上证综指7.89 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the chemical raw materials industry is optimistic (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the price of R134a has exceeded expectations, indicating a significant value proposition in the refrigerant sector, and suggests that long-term positioning is timely [4] - The fluorochemical index has shown a strong performance, increasing by 7.71% and outperforming major indices such as the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 [6][25] - The report emphasizes the ongoing upward trend in refrigerant prices, particularly for R134a, R32, and R125, while noting a structural differentiation in the market [22][23] Summary by Sections 1. Fluorochemical Industry Overview - The fluorochemical market is experiencing a positive trend, with R134a prices rising significantly due to concentrated purchasing demand, reaching 60,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 6,000 yuan/ton [9][22] - The overall market sentiment for fluorite is weak, with prices for 97% fluorite powder averaging 3,391 yuan/ton, down 0.96% from the previous week [19][33] 2. Refrigerant Market Trends - As of November 14, refrigerant prices are as follows: R32 at 63,000 yuan/ton, R125 at 45,500 yuan/ton, R134a at 55,000 yuan/ton, and R410a at 53,500 yuan/ton, with R134a showing a weekly increase of 1.85% [21][24] - The report notes that the refrigerant market is characterized by a strong upward trend for R32 and R134a, while R125 remains stable, and other products like R404 and R507 are experiencing downward pressure [22][23] 3. Beneficiary Companies - Recommended stocks include Jinshi Resources, Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Haohua Technology, with other beneficiaries being Dongyangguang, Yonghe Co., Dongyue Group, and Xinzhoubang [11][23]

Group 1 - Dongyue Group (00189) saw its stock price increase by over 8% during trading, currently up 6.31% at HKD 11.12, with a trading volume of HKD 425 million [1] - According to Steel Union data, the prices of refrigerants R32 remained stable at high levels, while R134a continued to rise. As of October 31, prices for R32, R125, R410a, and R134a have increased by 46.51%, 8.33%, 27.83%, and 27.06% respectively since the beginning of the year [1] - CITIC Construction Investment released a report indicating that chemical product prices in China have been declining for four consecutive years, with policies aimed at reducing internal competition and self-regulation emerging, suggesting a potential turning point in the cycle. The report highlights the importance of supply and demand improvements, focusing on cyclical sectors related to supply structure and domestic demand, particularly in fluorochemicals like Dongyue Group [1] Group 2 - Kaiyuan Securities noted that with the ongoing implementation of carbon peak and carbon neutrality strategies, the second-generation refrigerant R22 is set to be significantly reduced, which is expected to benefit HFCs as national policies promote rapid penetration [1]

中信建投发布研报称，我国化工品价格已经连续下行4年，反内卷政策/协会自律行动纷纷出台，周期拐 点或渐行渐近。我们认为在供给、需求都有边际改善预期的情况下，关注供给格局改善和内需相关的顺 周期板块。其中，氟化工关注东岳集团等。开源证券认为，随着碳达峰、碳中和战略的持续推进，二代 制冷剂R22即将大规模削减，HFCs有望受益于国家政策实现渗透率快速提升。 消息面上，据钢联数据，R32制冷剂价格高位持稳，R134a制冷剂高位续涨。根据百川盈孚数据，截至 10月31日，R32、R125、R410a、R134a价格较年初分别上涨46.51%、8.33%、27.83%、27.06%。 智通财经APP获悉，东岳集团(00189)盘中涨超8%，截至发稿，涨6.31%，报11.12港元，成交额4.25亿港 元。 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the chemical raw materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The refrigerant market remains on an upward trend despite short-term information disturbances, indicating that the main upward movement is still ongoing, and investors should seize the layout opportunities [4][18] - The fluorochemical industry chain has entered a long-term prosperity cycle, with significant growth potential across various segments, including raw materials like fluorite, refrigerants, and high-end fluorinated materials [22][23] Summary by Sections 1. Fluorochemical Market Overview - The fluorochemical index increased by 6.59% during the week of October 27 to October 31, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 6.47% [6][25] - The average market price for fluorite (97% wet powder) was 3,496 CNY/ton as of October 31, down 2.18% from the previous week [7][34] 2. Refrigerant Market - As of October 31, the prices for various refrigerants were as follows: R32 at 63,000 CNY/ton, R125 at 45,500 CNY/ton, R134a at 54,000 CNY/ton, R410a at 53,500 CNY/ton, and R22 at 16,000 CNY/ton, with most prices remaining stable compared to the previous week [8][20] - The market for R32 and R134a shows a strong upward trend, while R125 is expected to remain stable in the short term [21] 3. Company Performance - Major companies such as Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Dongyangguang reported significant profit growth in Q3 2025, with Juhua achieving a net profit of 3.248 billion CNY, up 160.22% year-on-year [9][10] - Recommended stocks include Jinsih Resources, Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Haohua Technology, among others [10][23] 4. Market Dynamics - The fluorite market is currently experiencing a cautious atmosphere with low transaction volumes, as companies focus on digesting existing inventory [19][35] - The overall market sentiment is influenced by high inventory levels and strong performance in the sulfuric acid market, which adds pressure to fluorine chemical companies [19][35]

Group 1: Xiaomi Group (01810.HK) - Cathay Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group with a target price of HKD 65.7, expecting Q3 vehicle deliveries to approach 109,000 units, indicating operational profitability due to economies of scale [1] - The mobile phone business faces margin pressure due to rising storage costs, but the success of the Xiaomi 17 series in the high-end market is expected to offset some cost pressures [1] Group 2: Anta Sports (02020.HK) - CMB International maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports but lowers the target price to HKD 110.9, citing intensified industry competition and a slowdown in recovery, leading management to revise the annual growth guidance to low single digits [2] - Despite short-term challenges, the long-term potential of the company's multi-brand strategy is still viewed positively [2] -招商证券 (Hong Kong) also maintains a "Buy" rating but reduces the target price to HKD 105.3, highlighting macro uncertainties and competition as factors affecting the brand's growth guidance [3] -浦银国际 lowers the target price to HKD 102.5, noting a cautious promotional strategy for the upcoming "Double Eleven" sales event, while maintaining a positive outlook on the multi-brand global strategy [9] Group 3: Fuyao Glass (06865.HK) - CMB International downgrades Fuyao Glass from "Buy" to "Neutral," citing a significant increase in sales driven by client stockpiling and cost reductions, but anticipates a decline in prices due to rapid inventory rebounds and excess capacity [4] Group 4: Dongyue Group (00189.HK) - Cathay Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Dongyue Group with a target price of HKD 15.29, projecting a more than 209% year-on-year growth in the refrigerant segment in H1 2025, driven by rising product prices and quota restrictions [5] Group 5: Hengan International (01044.HK) - Cathay Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Hengan International with a target price of HKD 45.2, noting rapid revenue growth in high-margin products like wet wipes and the potential for profit elasticity due to falling pulp prices [6] Group 6: Global New Material International (06616.HK) - Cathay Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Global New Material International with a target price of HKD 5.27, highlighting the increase in control over overseas core assets and the expansion of production capacity [7] Group 7: Ping An Good Doctor (01833.HK) -浦银国际 maintains a "Hold" rating for Ping An Good Doctor with a target price of HKD 14.0, reporting a 14% year-on-year revenue growth and a 73% increase in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 [10] Group 8: Zai Lab (09688.HK) -浦银国际 maintains a "Buy" rating for Zai Lab, noting the promising results of ZL-1310 in small cell lung cancer patients, with a 50% objective response rate and a potential to become an important therapy in the field [11]

Core Viewpoint - Cathay Pacific Haitong maintains an "Overweight" rating for Dongyue Group (00189), projecting net profits attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 at 1.822 billion, 2.017 billion, and 2.410 billion RMB respectively, with a target price of 15.29 HKD based on a 12x PE for 2026 and an exchange rate of 0.91 [1] Group 1: Refrigerant Business Performance - In H1 2025, the refrigerant segment's revenue reached 2.292 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 47.69%, accounting for 30.71% of the group's total external sales [2] - The refrigerant segment achieved a profit of 1.030 billion RMB in H1 2025, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 209.77% [2] - Price increases for key products R32 and R410A were the main drivers of the segment's performance growth, attributed to quota restrictions [2] Group 2: Subsidiary and Associate Company Updates - Dongyue Silicon Materials, a non-wholly owned subsidiary, reported unaudited revenue of 490 million RMB and a net profit of 2.857 million RMB for the first three quarters of 2025 [3] - The associate company, Future Materials, has submitted its IPO application to the Shanghai Stock Exchange, which has been accepted for processing [4] - Dongyue Group holds an 8.33% stake in Future Materials, while Shandong Dongyue Silicon Materials holds a 5.14% stake [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of Guotai Junan is to maintain an "overweight" rating for Dongyue Group (00189), projecting net profits attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 at 1.822 billion, 2.017 billion, and 2.410 billion yuan respectively, with a target price of 15.29 HKD based on a 12x PE for 2026 [1] - In the first half of 2025, the refrigerant business experienced a significant year-on-year growth of 209.77%, with external sales reaching 2.292 billion yuan, a 47.69% increase, accounting for 30.71% of the group's total external sales [1] - The major products R32 and R410a saw significant price increases in the first half of 2025, primarily due to quota restrictions, which were the main drivers of the refrigerant division's performance growth [1] Group 2 - Dongyue Silicon Material, a non-wholly-owned subsidiary, reported an unaudited revenue of 490 million yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.857 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025 [2] - The affiliated company Future Materials has submitted its IPO application to the Shanghai Stock Exchange, which has been accepted, focusing on the research, production, and sales of fluorinated proton exchange membranes and related key materials [3] - Dongyue Group holds an 8.33% stake in Future Materials, while Shandong Dongyue Silicon Material holds a 5.14% stake [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosen Securities indicates that the implementation of the 2026 refrigerant quota reduction for second-generation refrigerants and the continuation of the third-generation refrigerant quota system will maintain a tight supply-demand balance for mainstream refrigerants like R32 and R134a, with significant long-term price upside potential [1][2]. Regulatory Framework - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has issued the quota setting and distribution plan for 2026, emphasizing strict compliance with the annual phase-out tasks for second-generation refrigerants and making slight adjustments to the third-generation refrigerant quotas, increasing the inter-species adjustment limit from 10% to 30% [1][3]. Production Quotas - For HCFCs, the production quota for 2026 is set at 151,400 tons, with a reduction of 71.5% and 76.1% from baseline values for production and usage, respectively. The R22 production quota will see a year-on-year reduction of 3,000 tons, which is a decrease of 2.01% [3][4]. Market Dynamics - R22 prices have stabilized after a decline, while R32 and R134a continue to show strong market conditions. The average price of R22 fell to 34,100 CNY/ton in Q3 2025, while R32's average price rose to 59,000 CNY/ton, reflecting a strong demand [5]. Investment Opportunities - Companies with complete industrial chains, robust infrastructure, leading refrigerant quotas, and advanced technology in fluorochemical production are recommended for investment. Notable companies include Juhua Co., Ltd. (600610.SH), Dongyue Group (00189), and Sanmei Co., Ltd. (603379.SH) [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][32][29] Core Views - The third-generation refrigerant market is experiencing a prolonged boom cycle, with prices increasing steadily each quarter. The company has a leading position in production quotas, benefiting from the industry's upward trend [1][20][29] - The company's net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 3.248 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 160.22%, driven primarily by strong performance in the refrigerant business [1][9][10] - The company is expanding its liquid cooling business in response to growing demand from data centers, positioning itself for future growth in this area [4][28][29] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 20.394 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.9%, and a net profit of 3.248 billion yuan, up 160.2% year-on-year. The gross margin reached 28.9%, an increase of 11.9 percentage points [1][9][10] - The third quarter alone saw revenue of 7.062 billion yuan, a 21.2% increase year-on-year, while net profit was 1.197 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 186.55% [1][9][10] Refrigerant Business - The company sold 230,600 tons of refrigerants in the first three quarters of 2025, a decrease of 6.4% year-on-year, but the average selling price increased to 40,554 yuan per ton, up 58.1% year-on-year [10][21] - The pricing of refrigerants is increasingly decoupled from traditional cyclical pricing, indicating a long-term upward trend in prices [20][21] Non-Refrigerant Business - The non-refrigerant business is facing intense competition, with a slight decrease in the average price of fluoropolymers. Sales of fluoropolymers reached 36,400 tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.79% [3][25] - The market for fluoropolymers is transitioning from general-purpose to specialized and high-end products, indicating a shift in industry dynamics [25][27] Liquid Cooling Business - The demand for liquid cooling solutions is rapidly increasing due to advancements in AI technology and the limitations of traditional cooling methods. The company has initiated projects to produce fluorinated liquids for cooling applications [4][28][29] - A strategic partnership has been established to develop the largest immersion liquid cooling intelligent computing center in China, further enhancing growth prospects in this sector [28][29]