Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [3][7]. Core Views - The company is expected to see a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, with estimates ranging from 1.97 to 2.13 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 136% to 155% [1][7]. - The long-term outlook for refrigerants is positive, with the company positioned to benefit as a leader in the fluorochemical industry [1][7]. Financial Data and Valuation - Projected total revenue for 2025 is 29.355 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 20% [2][11]. - Estimated net profit for 2025 is 3.943 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 101% compared to the previous year [8][12]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 1.46 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 19.7 times [8][12]. Production and Sales Performance - The company's main products, including fluorinated refrigerants, have shown stable growth in production and sales, contributing to increased gross margins and profit [7]. - Revenue from refrigerants is expected to reach 6.086 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a significant price increase of 61.88% year-on-year [7]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the price of refrigerants has been recovering due to reduced production quotas for second-generation refrigerants and strong downstream demand [7]. - The company is expected to benefit from a favorable market environment as global temperatures rise, leading to increased demand for refrigerants [7].

业绩大幅增长，看好制冷剂景气周期 巨化股份(600160) ——巨化股份 2024 年报及 2025Q1 季报点评 [Table_Industry] 石油/能源 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 [Table_Target] 目标价格： 32.75 [Table_CurPrice] 当前价格： 25.41 [Table_Market] 交易数据 二代和三代制冷剂价格大幅上涨，公司 24 年业绩大幅增长。2025 年制冷剂配额政 策延续，叠加下游需求增长，公司作为三代制冷剂龙头将充分受益制冷剂景气周期。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要（百万元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 20,655 | 24,462 | 25,664 | 27,079 | 28,445 | | (+/-)% | -3.9% | 18.4% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.0% | | 净利润（归母） | 944 | 1,960 | 3,548 | 4,2 ...

业绩大幅增长，看好制冷剂景气周期 巨化股份(600160) ——巨化股份 2024 年报及 2025Q1 季报点评 [Table_Industry] 石油/能源 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 [Table_Target] 目标价格： 32.75 [Table_CurPrice] 当前价格： 25.41 [Table_Market] 交易数据 二代和三代制冷剂价格大幅上涨，公司 24 年业绩大幅增长。2025 年制冷剂配额政 策延续，叠加下游需求增长，公司作为三代制冷剂龙头将充分受益制冷剂景气周期。 | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要（百万元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 20,655 | 24,462 | 25,664 | 27,079 | 28,445 | | (+/-)% | -3.9% | 18.4% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.0% | | 净利润（归母） | 944 | 1,960 | 3,548 | 4,246 | 4 ...

研究报告 Research Report 5 May 2025 三美股份 Zhejiang Sanmei Chemical Industry (603379 CH) 业绩保持增长，看好三代制冷剂景气周期 公司业绩大幅增长。公司 2024 年营业收入 40.4 亿元，同比增长 21.17%；归属于母公司所有者的净利润 7.79 亿元，同比增长 178.4%，其中 2024Q4 营业收入 10.00 亿元，同比+37.98%，环比 +0.10%，归母净利润 2.18 亿元，同比+423.08%，环比+22.85%。 2025 年一季度营业收入 12.12 亿元，同比增长 26.42%，环比 +21.17%；归属于母公司所有者的净利润 4.01 亿元，同比增长 159.59%，环比+84.01%。 制冷剂价格保持涨势，公司盈利能力显著提高。2024 年公司制 冷剂产量/销量 16.26/12.34 万吨，分别同比+3.88%/+1.62%，制 冷剂价格 26055.9 元/吨，同比+28.17%，其中第四季度制冷剂价 格同比+48.49%，环比+6.09%。2025 年第一季度，公司制冷剂产 量/销量 4.09 万 ...

研究报告 Research Report 5 May 2025 三美股份 Zhejiang Sanmei Chemical Industry (603379 CH) 业绩保持增长，看好三代制冷剂景气周期 Growth Maintained, Positive with Three Generations of Refrigerant Boom Cycle [Table_yemei 观点聚焦 1] Investment Focus [Table_Info] 上调至优于大市 Upgrade to OUTPERFORM 评级 优于大市 OUTPERFORM 现价 Rmb44.10 目标价 Rmb59.40 HTI ESG 4.0-4.0-4.0 E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appendix for ESG comments) 市值 Rmb26.92bn / US$3.71bn 日交易额 (3 个月均值) US$30.59mn 发行股票数目 610.48mn 自由流通股 (%) 33% 1 年股价最高最低值 Rmb46.48-Rmb26.07 注：现价 Rmb44.10 为 20 ...

公司制冷剂产品均价持续增长，24FY&1Q25 业绩同比大幅增长。国家对第二、三代氟制冷剂均实行生 产配额管理，行业的供需格局、竞争格局优化，公司制冷剂产品均价持续增长，盈利能力大幅提升。据 公司公告，24FY 公司氟制冷剂平均售价和外销量分别为2.61 万元/吨和12.54 万吨，同比分别为+ 28.17%和+1.7%。1Q25 公司制冷剂平均售价和外销量分别为3.74 万元/吨和2.71 万吨，同比分别为+57% 和-16.1%。 制冷剂景气向上趋势不改，2025 年价格延续增长趋势。配额制背景下，制冷剂供给受限，行业生态、 竞争秩序得到明显改善。同时，国家"家电以旧换新"政策驱动国内需求增长、全球南方国家城镇化和消 费升级步伐加快驱动国际市场需求持续增长，制冷剂供需状况持续改善，景气向上趋势不改，2025 年 制冷剂延续涨价趋势。据百川盈孚数据，截至2025 年4 月28 日，公司主营制冷剂产品 R22/R32/R125/R134a 国内市场均价较2025 年1 月2日分别提升9.1%/12.8%/7.1%/10.6%至 3.60/4.85/4.50/4.70 万元/吨，价差较2025 年1 月2 日分 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [3][7]. Core Views - The company reported a strong performance in Q1 2025, achieving revenue of 5.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.05%, and a net profit of 809 million yuan, up 160.64% year-on-year, indicating a robust recovery and growth trajectory [1][7]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the fluorochemical industry, particularly benefiting from the ongoing upcycle in refrigerants, with significant growth expected in the coming years [7]. - The report forecasts revenue growth for 2025-2027, estimating revenues of 29.36 billion yuan, 35.23 billion yuan, and 40.51 billion yuan respectively, alongside net profits of 3.30 billion yuan, 4.20 billion yuan, and 4.90 billion yuan [7][15]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company’s total revenue for 2023 is projected at 20.66 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 4%, followed by a recovery with 18% growth in 2024 [15]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise from 0.35 yuan in 2023 to 1.22 yuan in 2025, reflecting a strong growth outlook [15]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from 72.6 in 2023 to 20.8 in 2025, indicating improving valuation metrics as earnings grow [15]. Market Position - The company has solidified its market position as a leading player in the fluorochemical sector, particularly in the production of fluorinated refrigerants and chlorinated raw materials, with a global leadership status [7]. - The first quarter of 2025 showed a significant increase in sales and production across key product lines, particularly in refrigerants, where average prices rose over 50% [7].

风险提示：1.三代制冷剂政策变化；2.下游空调、汽车产量不及预期；3.原材料价格波动；4.新项目进展 不及预期等。 制冷剂景气向上趋势不改，2025 年价格延续增长趋势。配额制背景下，制冷剂供给受限，行业生态、 竞争秩序得到明显改善。同时，国家"家电以旧换新"政策驱动国内需求增长、全球南方国家城镇化和消 费升级步伐加快驱动国际市场需求持续增长，制冷剂供需状况持续改善，景气向上趋势不改，2025 年 制冷剂延续涨价趋势。据百川盈孚数据，截至2025 年4 月28 日，公司主营制冷剂产品 R22/R32/R125/R134a 国内市场均价较2025 年1 月2日分别提升9.1%/12.8%/7.1%/10.6%至 3.60/4.85/4.50/4.70 万元/吨，价差较2025 年1 月2 日分别提升9.0%/21.9%/7.2%/7.1%至2.62/3.53/2.70/3.02 万元/吨，主流制冷剂盈利能力大幅提升。同时据海关总署数据，1/2/3月份制冷剂R32 出口均价分别为 3.87/3.99/3.97 万元/吨，内外贸价格逐步同频，公司业绩释放确定性增强。 投资建议：供给强约束叠加行业格局集中背景下，二、 ...

事件：公司发布2024 年年报，公司2024 年实现营收244.62 亿元，同比增长18.43%，归母净利润19.6 亿 元，同比增长107.69%，其中四季度实现营收65.56亿元，同比增长41.21%，归母净利润7.02 亿元，同比 增长256.83%。 2024 年取得亮眼成绩主要是由于制冷剂板块贡献。公司主要产品市场结构性分化突出。公司第二、三 代氟制冷剂在生产配额制下，供需格局、竞争格局、竞争秩序优化，下游需求改善等，产品价格合理性 回归上行，涨幅较大；非制冷剂化工产品总体"供强需弱"，竞争激烈，价格下行。随着制冷剂产品价格 回升，公司制冷剂业务在主营业务结构、盈利结构中的占比大幅提升。 公司制冷剂业务因产品价格上行的增利影响大于公司非制冷剂业务因价格下行的减利影响。从经营数据 上来看，制冷剂营收贡献最大，增速也较快，同比增长62.6%，含氟精细化学品虽然占比较小，但是增 速最快，达到99.48%，除此之外氟化工原料和石化材料板块营收也取得正增长，可以说公司2024 年业 绩取得如此亮眼成绩主要依靠制冷剂板块。公司原材料市场局部价格坚挺，萤石、无水氟化氢、甲醇、 苯、硫磺、液氯、甘油、丙酮、环己酮等 ...