1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On August 13, both equity indices and CGB futures rose; oils and oilseeds led the gains, while energy and chemicals performed weakly [10][12]. - China implements the fiscal interest subsidy policy for personal consumer loans and operating loans in the service industry [1][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 China Futures 期货异动 3.1.1 Overview 行情概述 - On August 13, equity indices and CGB futures rose, oils and oilseeds led gains, energy and chemicals were weak. Top gainers were rapeseed oil (3.6% rise, 23.1% open interest increase m - o - m), soybean meal (2.9% rise, 10.2% open interest increase m - o - m), and No.2 soybean (2.7% rise, 0.2% open interest decrease m - o - m). Top decliners were SCFIS(Europe) (5.6% fall, 8.6% open interest increase m - o - m), silicon metal (3.4% fall, 2.0% open interest increase m - o - m), and coking coal (3.0% fall, 4.6% open interest decrease m - o - m) [10][11][12]. 3.1.2 Daily Raise 上涨品种 3.1.2.1 Rapeseed Oil 菜籽油 & Rapeseed Meal 菜籽粕 & Rapeseed 油菜籽 - On August 13, rapeseed oil rose 3.6% to 10064 yuan/ton, rapeseed meal rose 2.3% to 2723 yuan/ton, and rapeseed rose 2.2% to 5136 yuan/ton. On August 12, China announced a preliminary ruling on anti - dumping investigation of Canadian rapeseed, imposing a 75.8% deposit. China's high dependence on Canadian rapeseed imports led to market concerns about supply of rapeseed meal and oil, causing price increases. Short - term market sentiment for rapeseed meal may remain strong, but mid - term substitutes may cause negative feedback, and after October it enters the off - season. Anti - dumping ruling is beneficial to domestic rapeseed oil prices, and factors like expected increase in overseas biodiesel demand for palm and soybean oil, palm oil entering production reduction season after September, and high market expectation of Fed rate cut in September may drive oils to operate strongly later [15][16][19]. 3.1.2.2 Copper 铜 - On August 13, copper rose 0.6% to 79380 yuan/ton. Supply constraints remain and inventory is low, but demand is weakening marginally and U.S. tariffs on copper are unfavorable. Copper may show a fluctuating trend. Copper ore and blister copper processing fees are low, raw material supply is tight, and new low long - term processing fees increase smelter production cut risks. Downstream replenishment willingness is weakening, copper inventory is rising, and price upward momentum is weakening [26][27][29]. 3.1.3 Daily Drop 下跌品种 3.1.3.1 SCFIS(Europe) - On August 13, SCFIS(Europe) fell 5.6% to 1333.1 points. Prices fluctuate, and attention should be paid to shorting the October and December contracts on rallies. The China - U.S. economic and trade talks in Stockholm suspended the 24% tariff for 90 days starting from August 12, 2025, retaining 10%. In weeks 34 - 35, shipping companies face increasing cargo solicitation pressure, and ship transfer to the Europe route in October may exacerbate pessimistic expectations. MSK freight rate fell sharply this week, and the SCFIS index at the end of August will narrow the disk discount. August - September is the traditional price decline cycle, and full shipping schedules may bring downward pressure to break below $2000/FEU. Attention should be paid to HPL's additional ships and shipping companies' suspension plans around the National Day [31][33][34]. 3.2 China News 中国要闻 3.2.1 Macro News 宏观新闻 - On August 12, the Ministry of Finance, the People's Bank of China, and the National Financial Regulatory Administration issued the "Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy on Personal Consumer Loans". The scope includes single - transaction consumption under 50,000 yuan and key - area consumption over 50,000 yuan. For consumption over 50,000 yuan, the subsidy is capped at 50,000 yuan. After the policy expires, extending the period and expanding the scope may be studied based on implementation effects [38][39]. 3.2.2 Industry News 行业新闻 - On August 13, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.48% to a nearly 4 - year high, and the two - market turnover exceeded 2.1 trillion yuan, an increase of 269.4 billion yuan from the previous trading day, returning to above 2 trillion yuan after 114 trading days [39]. - The Korea Exchange will launch semiconductor index futures and other derivatives [39].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On July 16, financial futures showed mixed performance; commodity futures had narrowed fluctuations, with agricultural product futures rising and energy & chemical futures falling [2][11][14]. - The top three gainers were poly-silicon, SCFIS(Europe), and cotton, while the top three decliners were sodium hydroxide, live hog, and ferrosilicon [12][13][14]. - The European line is expected to fluctuate with a bullish bias, iron ore prices are likely to be prone to rise rather than fall before market sentiment turns weak, and glass prices are expected to maintain a volatile view [25][30][36]. Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On July 16, financial futures had a mixed performance; commodity futures saw narrowed fluctuations, with agricultural product futures rising and energy and chemical futures falling [11][14]. - The top three gainers were poly-silicon (up 1.5% with a 2.8% month-on-month increase in positions), SCFIS(Europe) (up 1.4% with an 8.3% month-on-month increase in positions), and cotton (up 1.2% with a 4.0% month-on-month increase in positions) [12][14]. - The top three decliners were sodium hydroxide (down 2.1% with a 7.1% month-on-month increase in positions), live hog (down 1.9% with a 1.7% month-on-month increase in positions), and ferrosilicon (down 1.7% with a 0.6% month-on-month decrease in positions) [13][14]. 1.2 Daily Rise 1.2.1 SCFIS(Europe) - On July 16, SCFIS(Europe) increased by 1.4% to 1598.1 points [18][24]. - In June, export data remained resilient. China's exports in US dollars increased by 5.8% year-on-year, exports to the US fell by 16.1% with a significantly narrowed decline, and exports to the EU rose by 7.6% year-on-year [19][24]. - Spot freight rates remain resilient, shipping companies have high load rates, and there is no inflection point in spot freight rates yet. Shipping companies may announce price increases in August, and all contracts are performing relatively strongly [20][24][25]. 1.2.2 Iron Ore - On July 16, iron ore increased by 1.0% to 773 yuan/ton [28][30][31]. - Iron ore demand remains high, and fundamental bearish drivers are limited. Prices are expected to be prone to rise rather than fall before market sentiment turns weak, but short-term upward movement is limited, and prices will mainly fluctuate [28][30]. - Overseas mine shipments slightly decreased, port arrivals rebounded, steel enterprises' profits slightly improved, and molten iron output decreased but remained high year-on-year. Port inventory slightly decreased due to concentrated arrivals, and overall supply-demand contradictions are not prominent [29][30]. 1.3 Daily Drop 1.3.1 Glass - On July 16, glass decreased by 1.1% to 1070 yuan/ton [32][36]. - Actual demand is weak, but policy expectations are strong. In the short term, wait and see the pace and intensity of policy introduction. If policies exceed expectations, downstream expectations may improve and trigger a wave of stockpiling-driven increases. In the medium to long term, market-oriented capacity reduction is still needed, and prices will maintain a volatile view [32][36]. - Domestic macro urban renewal meetings have concluded with no obvious positive factors, off-season demand is falling, deep processing orders have decreased month-on-month, and raw sheet inventory days have rebounded month-on-month. There are still 2 production lines to produce glass, and daily output is on an upward trajectory [33][36]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - On July 15, China and Australia signed a Memorandum of Understanding on Implementing and Reviewing the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement [38][39]. - The Symposium on Research and Consultation for Comprehensively Expanding Domestic Demand was held in Beijing on July 16 [38][39]. - Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with Iranian Foreign Minister in Tianjin on July 16 [39]. 2.2 Industry News - The Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong released the "2024 Survey on Asset and Wealth Management Activities". In 2024, the total value of assets under management soared by 13% year-on-year, and the net capital inflow surged by 81%. By the end of 2024, the total value of assets under management of Hong Kong's asset and wealth management business rose to 35.1 trillion yuan (4.53 trillion US dollars) [40].

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 2024-10-09 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025/06/05 China Futures Daily Note 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要 Abstract Macro News: China plans to support 20 cities including Beijing and Tianjin in implementing urba ...