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锡:关注宏观情绪企稳情况
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-03-26 02:13
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating was provided in the report [1] 2. Core View - The report monitors the fundamentals of tin, including price, trading volume, inventory, and industry chain prices, and also mentions some macro - and industry - related news, but does not present a clear core view [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures and Spot Data**: - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 352,430 with a daily increase of 1.91%, and the night - session closing price was 354,680 with a night - session increase of 0.69%. The price of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 44,820 with a daily increase of 2.35% [1] - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 215,643, a decrease of 33,699 from the previous day, and the position was 18,892, a decrease of 2,195. The trading volume of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 526, an increase of 82, and the position was 21,704, an increase of 161 [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Tin was 8,144, a decrease of 408, and the inventory of LME Tin was 8,780, a decrease of 25. The cancellation warrant ratio of LME Tin was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% [1] - **Spot Prices and Spreads**: The SMM 1 tin ingot price was 357,600, an increase of 13,900 from the previous day. The Yangtze River Non - Ferrous 1 tin average price was 357,600, an increase of 14,200. The LME Tin (spot/three - month) spread was - 245, an increase of 21. The spread between the near - month contract and the consecutive - first contract was 157,000, an increase of 6,830. The spread between the spot and the futures main contract was 5,170, an increase of 9,740 [1] - **Industry Chain Prices**: The price of 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) was 341,600, an increase of 13,900. The price of 60% tin concentrate (Guangxi) was 345,600, an increase of 13,900. The price of 63A solder bar was 237,750, an increase of 8,500, and the price of 60A solder bar was 227,750, an increase of 8,500 [1] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of tin is 0, indicating a neutral view. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [2] 3.3 Macro and Industry News - Google released KV cache compression technology, causing the US stock storage sector to decline collectively - Iran rejected the US cease - fire plan, stating that it would not allow Trump to decide the cease - fire time - Due to the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia "seeks survival by changing routes", and the exports from the Red Sea port of Yanbu are approaching the target of 5 million barrels - Trump is forming a technology committee, and 13 industry leaders such as Zuckerberg, Huang Renxun, and Ellison may be nominated [3]
锡:宏观情绪偏弱
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-03-19 02:38
Group 1: Report Date and Industry Outlook - The report is dated March 19, 2026, and indicates that the macro - sentiment for tin is weak [1] Group 2: Research Analysts - The investment consulting analyst is Liu Yuxuan (License No.: Z0020476), and the contact person is Tang Wenhao (Futures License No.: F03152608) [2] Group 3: Fundamental Data of Tin Futures - The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 370,000, with a daily decline of 2.59%, and the night - session closing price was 357,660, with a decline of 3.39%. The closing price of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 45,345, with a decline of 3.21% [2] - The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 198,364, a decrease of 23,965 from the previous day, and the position was 30,797, a decrease of 903. The trading volume of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 1,013, a decrease of 402, and the position was 22,097, a decrease of 991 [2] - The Shanghai Tin futures inventory was 11,312, a decrease of 361, and the LME Tin inventory was 8,965, an increase of 220. The LME Tin注销仓单 ratio was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% [2] Spot and Price Difference - The SMM 1 tin ingot price was 369,500, a decrease of 10,850 from the previous day; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin average price was 368,400, a decrease of 12,200. The LME Tin (spot/three - month) spread was - 203, a decrease of 112 [2] - The spread between the near - month contract and the consecutive first contract was 174,570, a decrease of 2,740, and the spread between spot and the futures main contract was - 1,600, a decrease of 7,090 [2] Key Industrial Prices - The price of 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) was 353,500, a decrease of 10,850; the price of 60% tin concentrate (Guangxi) was 357,500, a decrease of 10,850 [2] - The price of 63A solder bar was 245,250, a decrease of 7,000, and the price of 60A solder bar was 234,750, a decrease of 6,500 [2] Group 4: Macro and Industry News - The Fed kept interest rates unchanged as expected, pointed out the uncertainty of the Middle East impact, raised inflation expectations, and still expected one interest - rate cut this year [2] - The Middle East conflict escalated, with Israel and Iran attacking key energy facilities, causing a sharp rise in international oil and gas prices [4] - US inflation exceeded expectations across the board, with the February PPI up 3.4% year - on - year and the core PPI at 3.9%, a one - year high [4] - Trump said that his visit to China might be postponed by five to six weeks [4] Group 5: Trend Strength - The trend strength of tin is - 1, indicating a weak outlook. The trend strength ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3]
锡:关注企稳情况
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-03-10 02:37
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report Core View - The report focuses on tin, suggesting to pay attention to its stabilization situation. The trend intensity of tin is 1, indicating a neutral stance [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 383,710 with a daily decline of 2.40%, and the night - session closing price was 397,630 with a 3.51% increase. The closing price of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 50,095 with a 0.09% increase [2]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 301,708, an increase of 4,940 from the previous day, and the open interest was 35,900, a decrease of 2,671. The trading volume of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 944, an increase of 657, and the open interest was 22,015, an increase of 308 [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Tin was 10,124, a decrease of 123, and the LME Tin inventory was 8,025, an increase of 250. The cancellation warrant ratio of LME Tin was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% [2]. - **Spot and Spread Data**: - **Spot Prices**: The SMM 1 tin ingot price was 396,950, a decrease of 9,900 from the previous day; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin average price was 382,400, a decrease of 17,700 [2]. - **Spreads**: The LME Tin (spot/three - month) spread was 19, an increase of 92; the spread between the near - month contract and the consecutive first - month contract was 186,730, a decrease of 7,000; the spread between the spot and the futures main contract was - 1,310, a decrease of 7,750 [2]. - **Industrial Chain Price Data**: - The prices of 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) and 60% tin concentrate (Guangxi) both decreased by 9,900 to 380,950 and 384,950 respectively. The prices of 63A and 60A solder bars decreased by 6,000 to 262,750 and 251,250 respectively [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Iran's parliamentary speaker said that international oil prices may remain in the triple - digits for an extended period. Iran claimed to have "destroyed" a US military helicopter base in Kuwait. Saudi Arabia started to cut oil production as storage space is full. MiniMax released new lobster skills, and its stock price soared 20% during intraday trading, leading the AI sector [4].
锡:关注风偏企稳情况
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-03-05 02:47
Group 1: Report Overview - Report date: March 5, 2026 [1] - Report topic: Tin - Pay attention to the stabilization of risk appetite [1] - Analysts: Liu Yuxuan, Tang Wenhao (contact person) [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - Tin trend strength: 1, indicating a neutral view, with the range of trend strength being [-2, 2], where -2 is most bearish and 2 is most bullish [3] Group 3: Core View - The report focuses on the stabilization of risk appetite for tin and provides detailed tracking of tin's fundamentals and relevant macro and industry news [1][2][4] Group 4: Fundamental Tracking Futures and Spot Data - **Futures prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 401,130 with a daily decline of 5.17%, and the night - session closing price was 406,590 with a 2.84% increase; the LME Tin 3M electronic disk closing price was 51,200 with a 2.84% increase [2] - **Trading volume and open interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 383,838, a decrease of 80,562 from the previous day, and the open interest was 39,459, a decrease of 76; the trading volume of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 470, a decrease of 974, and the open interest was 21,677, an increase of 116 [2] - **Futures inventory**: The Shanghai Tin inventory was 10,898, a decrease of 418; the LME Tin inventory was 7,780, an increase of 50, and the注销仓单 ratio was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% [2] - **Spot prices**: The SMM 1 tin ingot price was 408,500, a decrease of 4,450; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin average price was 410,900, an increase of 4,300; the LME tin (spot/three - month) spread was 19, unchanged; the spread between the near - month contract and the consecutive first contract was 204,170, an increase of 8,760; the spread between the spot and the futures main contract was 9,770, a decrease of 1,940 [2] Industrial Chain Key Price Data - The price of 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) was 392,500, a decrease of 4,450; the price of 60% tin concentrate (Guangxi) was 396,500, a decrease of 4,450; the price of 63A solder bar was 269,750, a decrease of 3,000; the price of 60A solder bar was 258,250, a decrease of 2,500 [2] Group 5: Macro and Industry News - The US Defense Secretary said that the US - Iran conflict may last for 8 weeks or longer [4] - Qatar will completely stop liquefied natural gas production on Wednesday [4] - Demand has recovered, and the US ISM non - manufacturing activity in February reached the largest expansion rate since 2022 [4] - The EU is expected to be exempted from the US tariff increase to 15% [4]
锡:关注宏观地缘影响
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-03-02 06:09
Group 1: Report Information - Report date: March 2, 2026 [1] - Report title: Tin: Pay Attention to Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Impacts [1] Group 2: Analyst Information - Analyst: Liu Yuxuan, Investment Consulting Qualification Number: Z0020476, Email: liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com [2] - Contact person: Tang Wenhao, Futures Qualification Number: F03152608, Email: tangwenhao@gtht.com [2] Group 3: Fundamental Tracking Futures and Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: - Shanghai Tin main contract: Yesterday's closing price was 453,240 with a daily increase of 8.53%; night - session closing price was 455,610 with a night - session increase of 5.65% [2] - LME Tin 3M electronic disk: Yesterday's closing price was 58,050 with a daily increase of 6.74% [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: - Shanghai Tin main contract: Yesterday's trading volume was 391,133, an increase of 227,884 from the previous day; open interest was 55,792, an increase of 42,991 [2] - LME Tin 3M electronic disk: Yesterday's trading volume was 1,272, an increase of 650; open interest was 21,387, a decrease of 231 [2] - **Inventory and Warehouse - Receipt Information**: - Shanghai Tin inventory was 11,418, a decrease of 138 from the previous day [2] - LME Tin inventory was 7,550, a decrease of 25; the cancelled - warehouse - receipt ratio was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% [2] Spot and Price Difference - **Spot Prices**: - SMM 1 tin ingot price was 430,000, an increase of 15,100 from the previous day [2] - Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin average price was 430,400, an increase of 15,300 [2] - **Price Differences**: - LME Tin (spot/three - month) spread was 19, an increase of 24 [2] - Near - month contract to continuous - first - contract spread was 256,110, an increase of 39,730 [2] - Spot to futures main - contract spread was - 22,840, a decrease of 23,760 [2] Industrial Chain Key Price Data - 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) price was 416,000, an increase of 15,100 from the previous day [2] - 60% tin concentrate (Guangxi) price was 420,000, an increase of 15,100 [2] - 63A solder bar price was 283,750, an increase of 9,500 [2] - 60A solder bar price was 271,250, an increase of 9,000 [2] Group 4: Trend Intensity - Tin trend intensity is 1, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [-2, 2] interval. The strength categories are weak, relatively weak, neutral, relatively strong, and strong, where -2 means most bearish and 2 means most bullish [3] Group 5: Macro and Industry News - Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei was assassinated and died [4] - Iran's military said that the US "Lincoln" aircraft carrier was attacked by 4 Iranian ballistic missiles [4] - Iran's former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was assassinated and died [4] - Wang Yi said that the Middle East situation may be pushed into a dangerous abyss, and China is highly concerned [4]
锡:震荡整理
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-02-05 02:26
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the tin industry is "Oscillating and Consolidating" [1] 2. Core View - The report provides comprehensive data on the tin market, including price movements, trading volumes, inventory levels, and key industrial prices. The trend strength of tin is rated as 0, indicating a neutral stance [1][3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price and Volume Data**: - The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 392,080 with a daily increase of 5.03%, and the night - session closing price was 379,270 with a decrease of 3.41%. - The price of the LME Tin 3M electronic - disk futures was 48,360 with a decrease of 3.85% [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: - The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 319,493, a decrease of 53,942 from the previous day, and the open interest was 35,914, an increase of 481. - The trading volume of the LME Tin 3M electronic - disk was 616, a decrease of 523, and the open interest was 25,406, an increase of 155 [2] - **Inventory Data**: - The inventory of Shanghai Tin was 7,411, a decrease of 377. - The inventory of LME Tin was 7,110, an increase of 15, and the注销仓单 ratio was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% [2] - **Spot and Spread Data**: - The SMM 1 tin ingot price was 395,050, an increase of 13,150. - The Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin average price was 395,500, an increase of 18,100. - The LME Tin (spot/three - month) spread was - 241, an increase of 59. - The spread between the near - month contract and the consecutive - first contract was 194,960, unchanged. - The spread between the spot and the futures main contract was 12,160, an increase of 27,410 [2] - **Industrial Chain Key Price Data**: - The price of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan was 381,050, an increase of 13,150. - The price of 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi was 385,050, an increase of 13,150. - The price of 63A solder bar was 261,250, an increase of 8,000. - The price of 60A solder bar was 250,250, an increase of 8,000 [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - President Xi Jinping had a phone call with former US President Donald Trump. - Negotiations between Iran and the US will be held in Oman on the 6th. - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association stated that space photovoltaic technology is still in the initial stage of exploration and verification. - NASDAQ plans to introduce a "fast - track inclusion" rule to handle large - scale IPOs such as SpaceX [4] 3.3 Trend Strength - The trend strength of tin is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the range of trend strength values being in the [- 2,2] integer interval, where - 2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [3]
锡:回落整理
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-02-03 02:28
Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core View - The report indicates that tin is in a phase of decline and consolidation, with a trend strength of -1, suggesting a bearish outlook [1][3]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Price and Volume Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 392,650, with a daily decline of 11.00%, and the night - session closing price was 360,000, with a decline of 12.38%. The closing price of the LME Tin 3M electronic - disk futures was 45,605, with a decline of 9.87%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract decreased by 277,948 to 190,922, and the position decreased by 1,757 to 38,322. The trading volume of the LME Tin 3M electronic - disk increased by 153 to 1,143, and the position decreased by 14 to 25,211 [2]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventory of Shanghai Tin decreased by 427 to 8,097, and the inventory of LME Tin increased by 10 to 7,105. The cancellation warrant ratio of LME Tin was 6.57%, with a decrease of 0.38% [2]. - **Spot and Price Difference Data**: The SMM 1 tin ingot price decreased by 35,900 to 392,750, the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin average price decreased by 31,000 to 392,500. The LME Tin (spot/three - month) spread decreased by 27 to - 227, the spread between the nearby contract and the consecutive first contract remained unchanged at 198,590, and the spread between the spot and the futures main contract increased by 6,130 to - 16,500 [2]. - **Industrial Chain Price Data**: The price of 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) decreased by 35,900 to 378,750, the price of 60% tin concentrate (Guangxi) decreased by 35,900 to 382,750, the price of 63A solder bar decreased by 22,500 to 260,250, and the price of 60A solder bar decreased by 21,500 to 248,750 [2]. 2. Macro and Industry News - Iran's Foreign Ministry Spokesperson stated that the details of talks with the US are still in the decision - making stage. The Shanghai Futures Exchange issued a notice on market risk control. Ant CEO issued an internal letter to increase incentives for "pioneering contributions" in AI. Medvedev confirmed that Russia and the US are having secret consultations [4].
锡:震荡偏强
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-01-26 02:22
Group 1: Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - The investment rating for the tin industry is "shockingly strong" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The trend strength of tin is 1, with the range of trend strength being integers in the [-2, 2] interval. -2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view [3] Group 3: Summary Based on the Directory Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai Tin yesterday was 429,570, with a daily increase of 5.03%, and the closing price of the night session was 447,140, with a night - session increase of 4.09%. The price of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 56,605, with a daily increase of 7.49%. The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai Tin increased by 102,997 to 378,618, and the position increased by 33,940 to 56,254. The trading volume of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk increased by 361 to 890, and the position increased by 202 to 23,931 [2] - **Inventory and Warehouse - Receipt Data**: The inventory of Shanghai Tin was 8,582, a decrease of 34. The inventory of LME Tin was 7,195, and the cancellation warehouse - receipt ratio was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% [2] - **Spot and Price - Difference Data**: The SMM 1 tin ingot price was 420,300, an increase of 17,050. The average price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin was 423,300, an increase of 20,000. The LME tin (spot/three - month) premium was - 245, a decrease of 56. The spread between the near - month contract and the consecutive - first contract was 233,310, an increase of 19,730. The spread between the spot and the main futures contract was 14,290, an increase of 29,410 [2] - **Industrial Chain Price Data**: The price of 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) was 406,300, an increase of 17,050. The price of 60% tin concentrate (Guangxi) was 410,300, an increase of 17,050. The price of 63A solder bar was 277,750, an increase of 11,000. The price of 60A solder bar was 265,250, an increase of 10,000 [2] Macro and Industry News - Negotiations among delegations from Ukraine, the US, and Russia in Abu Dhabi, UAE have ended - Huang Renxun, the founder of NVIDIA, visited China again, with his first stop being NVIDIA's new office in Shanghai - OpenAI's API business increased its annual recurring revenue by $1 billion last month - The central bank governor stated to promote the internationalization of the RMB in an orderly manner [4]
锡:关注资源收储
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-01-19 02:23
Report Information - Report Date: January 19, 2026 [1] - Title: Tin: Focus on Resource Stockpiling [1] - Analysts: Liu Yuxuan (Investment Consulting Qualification No.: Z0020476), Tang Wenhao (Contact, Futures Qualification No.: F03152608) [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on tin resources and suggests paying attention to resource stockpiling. The trend strength of tin is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [1][3] Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 405,240, down 6.41%, and the night - session closing price was 379,400, down 8.42%. The closing price of the LME 3M electronic tin plate was 47,708, down 9.60%. Trading volume and positions of both contracts decreased compared to the previous day [2] - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai Tin inventory was 9,462, down 64; LME Tin inventory was 5,935, up 10. The LME Tin cancellation warrant ratio was 6.57%, down 0.38% [2] - **Spot and Price Difference**: SMM 1 tin ingot price was 414,050, down 11,950; Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin average price was 414,500, down 20,500. Various price differences also showed changes [2] - **Industrial Chain Key Price Data**: The prices of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan and 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi decreased by 13,950. The prices of 63A and 60A solder bars decreased by 7,500 [2] 2. Macro and Industry News - Macron responded to US tariff threats, not ruling out the activation of the EU's toughest trade counter - measures - Trump said he would impose tariffs on 8 European countries until "fully acquiring Greenland" - Trump said he "persuaded himself" to postpone military action against Iran - The US Supreme Court set next Tuesday (January 20) as the next tariff opinion day [4] 3. Trend Strength - The trend strength of tin is 0, with the range of values being integers from - 2 to 2, where - 2 means most bearish and 2 means most bullish [3]
锡:高位整理
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-01-16 02:09
Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The tin market is in a high-level consolidation [1]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Fundamental Tracking - **Price Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 433.000 with a daily increase of 4.80%, and the night - session closing price was 418.860 with a decrease of 3.27%. The price of the LME Tin 3M electronic - disk futures was 52.775 with a decrease of 2.27% [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 592,217, an increase of 187,519 from the previous day, and the open interest was 38,481, a decrease of 3,924. The trading volume of the LME Tin 3M electronic - disk was 2,851, an increase of 1,315, and the open interest was 23,960, an increase of 401 [2]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventory of Shanghai Tin was 9,526, an increase of 2,419, and the inventory of LME Tin was 5,925, a decrease of 5. The cancellation warrant ratio of LME Tin was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% [2]. - **Spot Price**: The SMM 1 tin ingot price was 426,000, an increase of 20,500 from the previous day. The Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin average price was 435,000, an increase of 25,000 [2]. - **Industry Chain Price**: The 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) price was 414,000, an increase of 20,500. The 60% tin concentrate (Guangxi) price was 418,000, an increase of 20,500 [2]. Macro and Industry News - The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council will strengthen the role of state - owned enterprises as the main body of technological innovation and cultivate leading technology enterprises [2]. - Goldman Sachs plans to issue at least $12 billion in bonds [3]. - The People's Bank of China has lowered the policy tool interest rate by 0.25 percentage points, and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year [4]. - The demand for AI chips remains strong, TSMC's Q4 net profit increased by 35%, and its full - year capital expenditure in 2025 reached $40.9 billion [5]. Trend Strength - The tin trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. The trend strength ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [6].