【基本面跟踪】 锡基本面数据 | | 昨日收盘价 | | 日涨幅% | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪锡主力合约 期 货 | | 352,540 | 0.83% | 359,980 | 3.15% | | 伦锡3M电子盘 | | 45,700 | 4.64% | - | - | | 及 现 | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 沪锡主力合约 货 电 | | 253,086 | -147,359 | 40,737 | 1,939 | | 伦锡3M电子盘 子 盘 | | 588 | -477 | 23,214 | 335 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | 沪 锡 | | 6,429 | -359 | - | - | | 伦 锡 | | 5,415 | 1 0 | 6.57% | -0.38% | | 现 货 | | | 昨 日 | 前 日 | 较前日变动 | | | SMM 1#锡锭价格 | | 349,750 | 355,050 | -5,3 ...

2026 年 1 月 9 日 锡：高位松动 【基本面跟踪】 锡基本面数据 | | 昨日收盘价 | | 日涨幅% | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | 沪锡主力合约 | 349,640 | -2.62% | 347,430 | -1.53% | | | 伦锡3M电子盘 | 43,675 | -2.18% | - | - | | 及 现 | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 货 电 | 沪锡主力合约 | 400,445 | -59,464 | 38,798 | -5,171 | | 子 盘 | 伦锡3M电子盘 | 1,065 | 4 3 | 660 | 371 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪 锡 | 6,788 | 8 | - | - | | | 伦 锡 | 5,405 | 0 | 6.57% | -0.38% | | | | | 昨 日 | 前 日 | 较前日变动 | | | SMM 1#锡锭价格 | | 355,050 | ...

商 品 研 究 锡：多头资金受阻，冲高回落 | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 唐文豪（联系人） | 期货从业资格号：F03152608 | tangwenhao@gtht.com | 【基本面跟踪】 锡基本面数据 | | 昨日收盘价 | | 日涨幅% | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪锡主力合约 | 359,050 | 2.93% | 355,170 | -0.28% 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 伦锡3M电子盘 | 44,650 | 0.34% | - | - | | 及 现 | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | | | 货 电 | 沪锡主力合约 | 459,909 | 134,924 | 43,969 | 2,774 | | 子 盘 | 伦锡3M电子盘 | 180 | - 9 | 13,988 | 5 3 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变 ...

2026 年 1 月 5 日 锡：假期间震荡平稳 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 锡基本面数据 | 锡基本面数据 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅% | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | | 沪锡主力合约 | 326,330 | -2.47% | #N/A | #N/A | | 期 货 | 伦锡3M电子盘 | 42,195 | 5.46% | - | - | | 及 现 | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 货 电 | 沪锡主力合约 | 441,257 | -12,067 | 43,769 | -6,392 | | 子 盘 | 伦锡3M电子盘 | 180 | - 9 | 13,988 | 5 3 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪 锡 | 7,772 | -133 | - | - | | | 伦 锡 | 5,330 | 185 | 6 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The report focuses on the fundamentals of tin, including price, trading volume, inventory, and key industry prices, and also provides some macro and industry news [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures and Spot Market Data**: - The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 292,860, with a daily increase of 0.73%, and the night - session closing price was 294,380, with a night - session increase of 0.05%. The trading volume was 69,596, an increase of 13,478 from the previous day, and the open interest was 18,347, a decrease of 3,235 from the previous day. The inventory was 5,884, a decrease of 22 from the previous day [1]. - The price of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 37,425, with a daily increase of 1.23%. The trading volume was 180, a decrease of 9 from the previous day, and the open interest was 13,988, an increase of 53 from the previous day. The inventory was 3,085, unchanged from the previous day, and the cancelled - warrant ratio was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% from the previous day [1]. - The SMM 1 tin ingot price was 282,800, an increase of 1,500 from the previous day; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin average price was 293,600, an increase of 2,200 from the previous day [1]. - The LME tin (spot/three - month) spread was 96, an increase of 1 from the previous day; the spread between the near - month contract and the consecutive - first contract was 97,430, unchanged from the previous day; the spread between the spot and the futures main contract was 2,860, an increase of 3,490 from the previous day [1]. - **Industry Key Price Data**: - The price of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan was 270,800, an increase of 1,500 from the previous day; the price of 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi was 274,800, an increase of 1,500 from the previous day [1]. - The price of 63A solder bar was 191,250, an increase of 1,000 from the previous day; the price of 60A solder bar was 183,250, an increase of 1,000 from the previous day [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The Chinese President had a phone call with the US President, emphasizing that "cooperation benefits both sides, while confrontation hurts both" and also talked about the Taiwan issue and the Ukraine crisis [2]. - Fed Governor Waller and San Francisco Fed President Daly, who usually follows Powell, both support a December interest - rate cut due to concerns about the labor market [2]. - Trump signed an executive order to launch the artificial intelligence "Genesis Project" [2]. - Ukraine said that the US and Ukraine finalized a new peace draft, with the number of points reduced from 28 to 19, and sensitive parts are to be decided by the US and Russian presidents [2]. - Moore Threads, the "first domestic GPU stock", started its IPO subscription, with an online winning rate of 0.02423369% and an offline subscription multiple of nearly 1,600 times [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of tin is 0, indicating a neutral position, with the trend intensity ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The price of tin has fallen from a high level, and the trend strength of tin is 1, indicating a neutral view [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 298,140 with a daily increase of 1.95%, and the night - session closing price was 294,500 with a decrease of 0.74%. The price of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 37,065 with a decrease of 0.91%. The trading volume and positions of the Shanghai Tin main contract increased compared with the previous day, while the trading volume of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk decreased by 9 and the positions increased by 53 [2]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventory of Shanghai Tin was 5,698, an increase of 252 compared with the previous day, and the inventory of LME Tin was 3,055, unchanged from the previous day. The cancellation warrant ratio of LME Tin was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% compared with the previous day [2]. - **Spot and Price Difference Data**: The SMM 1 tin ingot price was 282,800, an increase of 1,500 compared with the previous day, and the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin average price was 297,400, an increase of 5,000 compared with the previous day. The LME tin (spot/three - month) spread decreased by 34. The spot - to - futures main contract spread increased by 740 [2]. - **Industrial Chain Important Price Data**: The prices of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan and 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi increased by 1,500 compared with the previous day, and the prices of 63A and 60A solder bars increased by 1,000 compared with the previous day [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Multiple Fed officials made hawkish remarks, and the market predicted that the probability of an interest rate cut in December was less than 50%. The US House of Representatives passed a temporary appropriation bill, ending the government shutdown. Trump's chief economic advisor estimated that the government shutdown caused 60,000 people to lose their jobs. China's new social financing in October was 810 billion yuan, and new RMB loans were 220 billion yuan, with the M2 - M1 gap widening. European officials were discussing building a US dollar reserve pool. Tencent's Q3 net profit increased by 19% year - on - year, and it planned to have lower capital expenditure in 2025 and sufficient GPU reserves [3][4]. 3.3 Trend Strength - The trend strength of tin is 1, with the range of trend strength being an integer in the [- 2,2] interval. - 2 means the most bearish, and 2 means the most bullish [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - The price of tin is trending upwards, with the Shanghai tin main contract and LME tin 3M electronic disk showing increases in prices and trading volume. The trend strength of tin is rated as 1, indicating a neutral to slightly positive outlook [1][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures and Spot Market**: The Shanghai tin main contract closed at 292,440 yuan with a daily increase of 1.48%, and the LME tin 3M electronic disk closed at 37,405 US dollars with a daily increase of 1.93%. The trading volume and open interest of the Shanghai tin main contract increased significantly compared to the previous day [1] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: The inventory of Shanghai tin decreased by 136 tons to 5,446 tons, while the inventory of LME tin increased by 40 tons to 3,055 tons. The cancellation warehouse receipt ratio of LME tin was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% from the previous day [1] - **Spot and Price Difference**: The SMM 1 tin ingot price increased by 1,500 yuan to 282,800 yuan, and the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin average price increased by 4,300 yuan to 292,400 yuan. The spot - to - futures main contract price difference increased by 2,680 yuan to 4,220 yuan [1] - **Industrial Chain Key Price Data**: The prices of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan and 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi increased by 1,500 yuan, and the prices of 63A and 60A solder bars increased by 1,000 yuan [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **US Economic and Policy News**: After the end of the shutdown, the US October inflation and employment reports may not be released. The Atlanta Fed President who advocates "no rate cut in December" will retire in February next year. The US Treasury Secretary will adjust the national debt issuance structure according to investor demand. The US Supreme Court will hold a court debate on the Fed Governor Cook case on January 21 [2] - **Global Commodity Market**: OPEC lowered the global oil demand forecast, and the oil price dropped by 4% as the Q3 market shifted from "supply shortage" to "supply surplus" [2] - **Chinese Market Policy**: China Securities Regulatory Commission Vice - Chairman Li Ming stated to prevent large market fluctuations [2] - **Corporate News**: Due to strong demand for AI servers, Hon Hai's Q3 net profit increased by 17% year - on - year, exceeding expectations, and its revenue increased by 11%. Alphabet's Waymo will supply highway self - driving taxis [2][3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of tin is 1, within the range of [-2, 2], indicating a neutral to slightly positive view on the tin market [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Report Core View - The report focuses on tin, highlighting the need to pay attention to macro - level impacts. The trend strength of tin is rated as 1, indicating a neutral stance [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures and Spot Market Data**: - For the Shanghai Tin main contract, the yesterday's closing price was 286,350 with a daily decline of 0.26%, and the night - session closing price was 280,830 with a decline of 2.63%. The trading volume was 105,146, an increase of 26,165 from the previous day, and the open interest was 34,660, a decrease of 288 from the previous day. The inventory was 5,809, a decrease of 42 from the previous day [2]. - For the LME Tin 3M electronic disk, the yesterday's closing price was 35,350 with a decline of 3.99%. The trading volume was 180, a decrease of 9 from the previous day, and the open interest was 13,988, an increase of 53 from the previous day. The inventory was 2,410, an increase of 20 from the previous day, and the cancelled warrant ratio was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% from the previous day [2]. - The SMM 1 tin ingot price was 284,200, an increase of 7,000 from the previous day; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin average price was 288,600, an increase of 5,000 from the previous day. The LME tin (spot/three - month) spread was - 62, a decrease of 5 from the previous day [2]. - The spread between the nearby contract and the consecutive first contract was 91,110, unchanged from the previous day; the spread between the spot and the futures main contract was 1,510, a decrease of 8,380 from the previous day [2]. - **Industrial Chain Price Data**: - The price of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan was 272,200, an increase of 7,000 from the previous day; the price of 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi was 276,200, an increase of 7,000 from the previous day [2]. - The price of 63A solder bar was 191,750, an increase of 4,500 from the previous day; the price of 60A solder bar was 183,750, an increase of 4,000 from the previous day [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - China's Ministry of Commerce stated that China's export controls on rare earths and other items are not a ban on exports, and hopes that the US will correct its mistakes and engage in dialogue and negotiation [3]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation launched an antitrust investigation into Qualcomm, stating that the facts are clear and the evidence is conclusive [3]. - The list of candidates for the Fed Chair has been narrowed to five, and a BlackRock executive impressed someone. Fed Governor Waller is concerned about the job market and is open to a 25 - basis - point rate cut [3]. - The White House announced permanent layoffs in the Trump administration for the first time in modern US history [3]. - The release of the US September CPI report is scheduled for October 24, 9 days later than originally planned [3]. - Japan's ruling coalition has broken up, with Komeito announcing it will no longer form a coalition with the Liberal Democratic Party and rejecting support for Sanae Takaichi as Prime Minister [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This week, tin prices were volatile, closing at 274,160 yuan/ton on Friday. Fundamentally, the overseas LME structure declined significantly to -34.98 dollars/ton, and the domestic spot premium also dropped to 250 yuan/ton, indicating a simultaneous weakening of domestic and foreign supply and demand. Social inventories increased, with overseas LME inventories rising by 300 tons and domestic inventories by 108 tons. In terms of tin ingot production, the weekly operating rate dropped significantly to 28% due to maintenance at Yunnan enterprises such as Yunnan Tin, but due to sufficient enterprise inventories, it may not actually affect the market supply of tin ingots. Macroscopically, this week's non - farm payroll data was poor, leading to concerns about overseas economic performance and a decline in risk appetite. It is believed that tin prices will face downward pressure in the short term, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities at high levels [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Trading (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction, Position) - **Spot**: This week, the LME 0 - 3 premium was -34.98 dollars/ton, and the domestic spot premium was 250 yuan/ton. Overseas premiums declined, with premiums in Baltimore and Taiwan narrowing [10][15]. - **Spread**: This week, the tin monthly structure changed from the previous B structure to the C structure [19]. - **Inventory**: This week, domestic social inventories increased by 108 tons, and futures inventories decreased by 79 tons. LME inventories increased by 390 tons, and the cancelled warrant ratio dropped to 7.06% [25][30]. - **Capital**: As of this Friday, the precipitated capital for Shanghai tin was 162.85 million yuan, and the capital flow in the past 10 days was in an outflow direction [35]. - **Transaction and Position**: This week, the trading volume and position of Shanghai tin decreased slightly, while the position increased slightly. The trading volume of LME tin decreased slightly, and the position continued to decline [37][43]. - **Position - to - Inventory Ratio**: This week, the position - to - inventory ratio of Shanghai tin decreased slightly [48]. 2. Tin Supply (Tin Ore, Refined Tin) - **Tin Ore**: In May 2025, the output of tin concentrate was 5,961 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.56%; in July 2025, the import volume was 10,278 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 31.79%, and the cumulative year - on - year decrease was 32.32%. This week, the processing fee for 40% tin ore in Yunnan remained unchanged at 12,000 yuan/ton, and the processing fee for 60% tin ore in Guangxi, Jiangxi, and Hunan decreased to 8,000 yuan/ton. The profitability of tin ore imports increased slightly [52][53]. - **Smelting**: In July 2025, the domestic tin ingot output was 15,940 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.09%. This week, the combined operating rate of Jiangxi and Yunnan provinces dropped significantly to 28% [58][60]. - **Import**: In July 2025, the domestic tin ingot imports were 2,167 tons, exports were 1,673 tons, and the net imports were 393 tons. Among them, the tin ingots imported from Indonesia to China were 812 tons. The latest import profitability was -16,622 yuan/ton [67]. 3. Tin Demand (Tin Products, End - Use Consumption) - **Consumption Volume**: In July 2025, the apparent consumption of tin ingots was 16,434 tons, and the actual consumption was 15,572 tons [75]. - **Tin Products**: This week, the downstream processing fees decreased slightly. The operating rate of monthly solder enterprises in April decreased slightly. The production and sales of major tin - plated sheet enterprises in May decreased slightly [78]. - **End - Use Consumption**: In July 2025, the end - use production performance varied. The performance of household appliances was weak, generally showing a month - on - month decline. The production of integrated circuits, mobile phones, and computer systems decreased month - on - month and was at a historically low level. The consumption of household appliances and new energy also decreased month - on - month. This week, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rebounded, in line with the performance of tin prices [85][87][92].

Report Summary 1. Report Date - The report is dated July 24, 2025 [1] 2. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report 3. Core View - The price of tin is affected by the flood in Wa State [1] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 268,540 with a daily increase of 0.01%, and the trading volume was 69,039, an increase of 5,372 from the previous day. The closing price of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 34,750 with a daily increase of 2.45%, and the trading volume was 180, a decrease of 9 from the previous day [2] - **Inventory Data**: The inventory of Shanghai Tin was 6,807, an increase of 16 from the previous day, and the inventory of LME Tin was 1,690, a decrease of 25 from the previous day. The cancellation warrant ratio of LME Tin was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% from the previous day [2] - **Spot Price Data**: The price of SMM 1 tin ingot was 266,300, a decrease of 900 from the previous day, and the average price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin was 269,100, an increase of 2,500 from the previous day [2] - **Industrial Chain Price Data**: The price of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan was 254,300, a decrease of 900 from the previous day, and the price of 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi was 258,300, a decrease of 900 from the previous day [2] 4.2 Macro and Industry News - China's Ministry of Commerce announced that He Lifeng will go to Sweden to hold economic and trade talks with the US from July 27 to 30 [3] - The media reported that the US and the EU are close to reaching an agreement, and the US will impose a 15% tariff on the EU. The White House responded that it was speculation. The EU plans to impose a 30% tariff on 100 billion euros of US goods [3] - Trump said that the US and Japan reached an agreement, and Japan accepted a 15% tax rate and opened the automobile and rice markets. The three major US automakers were dissatisfied with the US - Japan trade agreement [3] - The US Treasury Secretary said that there is no rush to finalize the successor to Powell [3] - Ishiba Shigeru denied the "resignation rumor" and said that he had not discussed whether to stay or step down [3] - The auction demand for 40 - year Japanese long - term bonds hit a 14 - year low [3] - The White House released an "AI Action Plan" to relax regulations and expand energy to accelerate AI development [5] - Hainan Free Trade Port will be sealed off on December 18, with a 74% "zero - tariff" commodity ratio and 8 "first - line" ports [5] - Tesla's Q2 performance was dismal, with the largest sales decline in a decade. Musk warned that the situation may be severe in the next few quarters [5] 4.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of tin is - 1, indicating a weak bearish view. The range of trend intensity is in the interval of [-2, 2], where - 2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [4]