锡：关注宏观地缘影响 2026 年 3 月 2 日 | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 唐文豪（联系人） | 期货从业资格号：F03152608 | tangwenhao@gtht.com | 【宏观及行业新闻】（资料来源：华尔街见闻） 【趋势强度】 锡趋势强度：1 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示最看空，2 表示最看多。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 【基本面跟踪】 锡基本面数据 | | 昨日收盘价 | | 日涨幅% | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | 沪锡主力合约 | 453,240 | 8.53% | 455,610 | 5.65% | | | 伦锡3M电子盘 | 58,050 | 6.74% | - | - | | 及 现 | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 货 电 | 沪锡主力合 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the tin industry is "Oscillating and Consolidating" [1] 2. Core View - The report provides comprehensive data on the tin market, including price movements, trading volumes, inventory levels, and key industrial prices. The trend strength of tin is rated as 0, indicating a neutral stance [1][3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price and Volume Data**: - The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 392,080 with a daily increase of 5.03%, and the night - session closing price was 379,270 with a decrease of 3.41%. - The price of the LME Tin 3M electronic - disk futures was 48,360 with a decrease of 3.85% [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: - The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 319,493, a decrease of 53,942 from the previous day, and the open interest was 35,914, an increase of 481. - The trading volume of the LME Tin 3M electronic - disk was 616, a decrease of 523, and the open interest was 25,406, an increase of 155 [2] - **Inventory Data**: - The inventory of Shanghai Tin was 7,411, a decrease of 377. - The inventory of LME Tin was 7,110, an increase of 15, and the注销仓单 ratio was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% [2] - **Spot and Spread Data**: - The SMM 1 tin ingot price was 395,050, an increase of 13,150. - The Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin average price was 395,500, an increase of 18,100. - The LME Tin (spot/three - month) spread was - 241, an increase of 59. - The spread between the near - month contract and the consecutive - first contract was 194,960, unchanged. - The spread between the spot and the futures main contract was 12,160, an increase of 27,410 [2] - **Industrial Chain Key Price Data**: - The price of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan was 381,050, an increase of 13,150. - The price of 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi was 385,050, an increase of 13,150. - The price of 63A solder bar was 261,250, an increase of 8,000. - The price of 60A solder bar was 250,250, an increase of 8,000 [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - President Xi Jinping had a phone call with former US President Donald Trump. - Negotiations between Iran and the US will be held in Oman on the 6th. - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association stated that space photovoltaic technology is still in the initial stage of exploration and verification. - NASDAQ plans to introduce a "fast - track inclusion" rule to handle large - scale IPOs such as SpaceX [4] 3.3 Trend Strength - The trend strength of tin is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the range of trend strength values being in the [- 2,2] integer interval, where - 2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [3]

2026 年 2 月 3 日 锡：回落整理 | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 唐文豪（联系人） | 期货从业资格号：F03152608 | tangwenhao@gtht.com | 【基本面跟踪】 锡基本面数据 | | 昨日收盘价 | | 日涨幅% | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪锡主力合约 | | 392,650 | -11.00% | 360,000 | -12.38% | | 伦锡3M电子盘 期 货 | | 45,605 | -9.87% | - | - | | 及 现 | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 沪锡主力合约 货 电 | | 190,922 | -277,948 | 38,322 | -1,757 | | 伦锡3M电子盘 子 盘 | | 1,143 | 153 | 25,211 | -14 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单 ...

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - The investment rating for the tin industry is "shockingly strong" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The trend strength of tin is 1, with the range of trend strength being integers in the [-2, 2] interval. -2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view [3] Group 3: Summary Based on the Directory Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai Tin yesterday was 429,570, with a daily increase of 5.03%, and the closing price of the night session was 447,140, with a night - session increase of 4.09%. The price of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 56,605, with a daily increase of 7.49%. The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai Tin increased by 102,997 to 378,618, and the position increased by 33,940 to 56,254. The trading volume of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk increased by 361 to 890, and the position increased by 202 to 23,931 [2] - **Inventory and Warehouse - Receipt Data**: The inventory of Shanghai Tin was 8,582, a decrease of 34. The inventory of LME Tin was 7,195, and the cancellation warehouse - receipt ratio was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% [2] - **Spot and Price - Difference Data**: The SMM 1 tin ingot price was 420,300, an increase of 17,050. The average price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin was 423,300, an increase of 20,000. The LME tin (spot/three - month) premium was - 245, a decrease of 56. The spread between the near - month contract and the consecutive - first contract was 233,310, an increase of 19,730. The spread between the spot and the main futures contract was 14,290, an increase of 29,410 [2] - **Industrial Chain Price Data**: The price of 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) was 406,300, an increase of 17,050. The price of 60% tin concentrate (Guangxi) was 410,300, an increase of 17,050. The price of 63A solder bar was 277,750, an increase of 11,000. The price of 60A solder bar was 265,250, an increase of 10,000 [2] Macro and Industry News - Negotiations among delegations from Ukraine, the US, and Russia in Abu Dhabi, UAE have ended - Huang Renxun, the founder of NVIDIA, visited China again, with his first stop being NVIDIA's new office in Shanghai - OpenAI's API business increased its annual recurring revenue by $1 billion last month - The central bank governor stated to promote the internationalization of the RMB in an orderly manner [4]

Report Information - Report Date: January 19, 2026 [1] - Title: Tin: Focus on Resource Stockpiling [1] - Analysts: Liu Yuxuan (Investment Consulting Qualification No.: Z0020476), Tang Wenhao (Contact, Futures Qualification No.: F03152608) [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on tin resources and suggests paying attention to resource stockpiling. The trend strength of tin is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [1][3] Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 405,240, down 6.41%, and the night - session closing price was 379,400, down 8.42%. The closing price of the LME 3M electronic tin plate was 47,708, down 9.60%. Trading volume and positions of both contracts decreased compared to the previous day [2] - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai Tin inventory was 9,462, down 64; LME Tin inventory was 5,935, up 10. The LME Tin cancellation warrant ratio was 6.57%, down 0.38% [2] - **Spot and Price Difference**: SMM 1 tin ingot price was 414,050, down 11,950; Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin average price was 414,500, down 20,500. Various price differences also showed changes [2] - **Industrial Chain Key Price Data**: The prices of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan and 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi decreased by 13,950. The prices of 63A and 60A solder bars decreased by 7,500 [2] 2. Macro and Industry News - Macron responded to US tariff threats, not ruling out the activation of the EU's toughest trade counter - measures - Trump said he would impose tariffs on 8 European countries until "fully acquiring Greenland" - Trump said he "persuaded himself" to postpone military action against Iran - The US Supreme Court set next Tuesday (January 20) as the next tariff opinion day [4] 3. Trend Strength - The trend strength of tin is 0, with the range of values being integers from - 2 to 2, where - 2 means most bearish and 2 means most bullish [3]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The tin market is in a high-level consolidation [1]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Fundamental Tracking - **Price Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 433.000 with a daily increase of 4.80%, and the night - session closing price was 418.860 with a decrease of 3.27%. The price of the LME Tin 3M electronic - disk futures was 52.775 with a decrease of 2.27% [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 592,217, an increase of 187,519 from the previous day, and the open interest was 38,481, a decrease of 3,924. The trading volume of the LME Tin 3M electronic - disk was 2,851, an increase of 1,315, and the open interest was 23,960, an increase of 401 [2]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventory of Shanghai Tin was 9,526, an increase of 2,419, and the inventory of LME Tin was 5,925, a decrease of 5. The cancellation warrant ratio of LME Tin was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% [2]. - **Spot Price**: The SMM 1 tin ingot price was 426,000, an increase of 20,500 from the previous day. The Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin average price was 435,000, an increase of 25,000 [2]. - **Industry Chain Price**: The 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) price was 414,000, an increase of 20,500. The 60% tin concentrate (Guangxi) price was 418,000, an increase of 20,500 [2]. Macro and Industry News - The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council will strengthen the role of state - owned enterprises as the main body of technological innovation and cultivate leading technology enterprises [2]. - Goldman Sachs plans to issue at least $12 billion in bonds [3]. - The People's Bank of China has lowered the policy tool interest rate by 0.25 percentage points, and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year [4]. - The demand for AI chips remains strong, TSMC's Q4 net profit increased by 35%, and its full - year capital expenditure in 2025 reached $40.9 billion [5]. Trend Strength - The tin trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. The trend strength ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the tin industry is "strongly bullish", with a trend strength of 2, indicating the most bullish outlook [1][3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The tin market is experiencing a strong upward trend, as evidenced by significant price increases in both futures and spot markets [1][2] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 413,170 with a daily increase of 8.92%, and the night - session closing price was 436,540 with a night - session increase of 9.18%. The LME Tin 3M electronic disk closed at 54,000 with a daily increase of 9.88% [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 404,698, a decrease of 65,525 from the previous day, and the open interest was 42,405, a decrease of 448. The trading volume of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 1,536, a decrease of 14, and the open interest was 23,559, an increase of 271 [2] - **Inventory and Cancelled Warrant Ratio**: The Shanghai Tin inventory was 7,107, an increase of 862, and the LME Tin inventory was 5,930, unchanged. The cancelled warrant ratio of LME Tin was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% [2] - **Spot and Price Spreads**: The SMM 1 tin ingot price increased by 25,300 to 405,500, and the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin average price increased by 30,000 to 410,000. The LME Tin (spot/three - month) spread increased by 22 to - 65 [2] - **Industry Chain Key Prices**: The price of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan increased by 25,300 to 393,500, and the price of 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi increased by 25,300 to 397,500 [2] 2. Macro and Industry News - The US will suspend all visas for 75 countries, covering nearly one - third of the world - US retail sales in November increased by 0.6% month - on - month, exceeding expectations, driven by a rebound in car sales and holiday consumption - The Japanese yen fell to an 18 - month low, and the Japanese Finance Minister warned of "not excluding any means" to rescue the market - China's Foreign Ministry stated that US officials said the US was withdrawing personnel from major Middle - East bases [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for tin is "Oscillating Strongly" [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trend strength of tin is 1, with the range of trend strength values being integers in the [-2, 2] interval. The classification of strength levels is as follows: weak, relatively weak, neutral, relatively strong, and strong, where -2 indicates the most bearish and 2 indicates the most bullish [3] Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai Tin futures was 352,540 with a daily increase of 0.83%, and the night - session closing price was 359,980 with a night - session increase of 3.15%; the closing price of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 45,700 with a daily increase of 4.64% [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai Tin futures was 253,086, a decrease of 147,359 from the previous day, and the open interest was 40,737, an increase of 1,939; the trading volume of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 588, a decrease of 477, and the open interest was 23,214, an increase of 335 [2] - **Inventory Data**: The futures inventory of Shanghai Tin was 6,429, a decrease of 359; the futures inventory of LME Tin was 5,415, an increase of 10, and the cancelled warrant ratio was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% [2] - **Spot Prices and Spreads**: The SMM 1 tin ingot price was 349,750, a decrease of 5,300 from the previous day; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin average price was 350,900, a decrease of 2,000; the LME tin (spot/three - month) spread was - 30, an increase of 9; the spread between the nearby contract and the consecutive first contract was 157,480, an increase of 3,620; the spread between the spot and the futures main contract was 1,260, an increase of 7,410 [2] - **Industrial Chain Key Price Data**: The price of 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) was 337,750, a decrease of 5,300; the price of 60% tin concentrate (Guangxi) was 341,750, a decrease of 5,300; the price of 63A solder bar was 233,250, a decrease of 3,500; the price of 60A solder bar was 223,250, a decrease of 3,500 [2] 2. Macro and Industry News - Trump said there will be no more oil or funds flowing into Cuba - British officials have not ruled out the possibility of deploying troops in Greenland - The National Commercial Work Conference stated to deeply implement the special action to boost consumption - Trump was reported to have received a briefing on the military strike plan against Iran [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Date and Title - Date: January 9, 2026; Title: "Tin: Loosening at High Levels" [1] 2. Analysts and Contact Information - Analyst: Liu Yuxuan (Investment Consulting Qualification No.: Z0020476, Email: liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com); Contact: Tang Wenhao (Futures Qualification No.: F03152608, Email: tangwenhao@gtht.com) [2] 3. Fundamental Tracking Futures - **Prices**: Shanghai Tin main contract closed at 349,640 yuan with a -2.62% daily increase and 347,430 yuan at night with a -1.53% increase; LME Tin 3M electronic disk closed at 43,675 with a -2.18% daily increase [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Shanghai Tin main contract had 400,445 trades (-59,464 compared to the previous day) and 38,798 open interests (-5,171); LME Tin 3M electronic disk had 1,065 trades (43 more) and 660 open interests (371 more) [2] - **Inventory**: Shanghai Tin inventory was 6,788 (8 more); LME Tin inventory was 5,405 (unchanged), and the cancellation warrant ratio was 6.57% (-0.38%) [2] Spot and Price Difference - **Spot Prices**: SMM 1 tin ingot price was 355,050 yuan (-900 compared to the previous day); Yangtze River Non - Ferrous 1 tin average price was 352,900 yuan (-4,400) [2] - **Price Differences**: LME Tin (spot/three - month) spread was -52 (13 more); the spread between the near - month contract and the first - continuous contract was 153,860 (unchanged); the spread between spot and the futures main contract was -6,150 (-14,630) [2] Industrial Chain Key Price Data - 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) price was 343,050 yuan (-900); 60% tin concentrate (Guangxi) price was 347,050 yuan (-900); 63A solder bar price was 236,750 yuan (-500); 60A solder bar price was 226,750 yuan (-500) [2] 4. Macro and Industry News - Trump hopes to visit Venezuela; the Fed reported that the one - year inflation expectation in the US rose to 3.42% (previous value: 3.2%); the Russian Foreign Ministry said that the "Volunteer Alliance" and Ukraine are the "war axis"; the World Gold Council reported that global gold ETFs set a record high in annual capital inflows in 2025 [2][4] 5. Trend Intensity - Tin trend intensity is 0, with the range of [-2, 2] representing different views from most bearish (-2) to most bullish (2) [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided. 2. Core View - The report focuses on the tin market, showing that long - position funds faced obstacles, leading to a price increase followed by a decline [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures and Spot Electronic Disk Data**: - The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 359,050 with a daily increase of 2.93%, and the night - session closing price was 355,170 with a - 0.28% change compared to the previous day. The closing price of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 44,650 with a 0.34% increase [1]. - The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 459,909, an increase of 134,924 from the previous day, and the position was 43,969, an increase of 2,774. The trading volume of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 180, a decrease of 9, and the position was 13,988, an increase of 53 [1]. - The inventory of Shanghai Tin was 6,780, a decrease of 306, and the inventory of LME Tin was 5,405, a decrease of 15. The cancellation warrant ratio of LME Tin was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% [1]. - **Spot and Price Difference Data**: - The price of SMM 1 tin ingot was 355,950, an increase of 14,900 from the previous day; the average price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin was 357,300, an increase of 15,200 [1]. - The LME Tin (spot/three - month) spread was - 65, a decrease of 35; the spread between the near - month contract and the first - continuous contract was 162,370, unchanged; the spread between the spot and the futures main contract was 8,480, an increase of 750 [1]. - **Industry Chain Key Price Data**: - The price of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan was 343,950, an increase of 14,900; the price of 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi was 347,950, an increase of 14,900 [1]. - The price of 63A solder bar was 237,250, an increase of 9,500; the price of 60A solder bar was 227,250, an increase of 9,000 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The memory market has entered a "super bull market" with a 40% - 50% increase expected in Q1 [2]. - Eight departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology aim to accelerate the industrialization and commercialization of new terminals such as AR/VR wearable devices and brain - computer interfaces [2]. - The People's Bank of China carried out 110 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations on January 8 [2]. - The US will "distribute on commission" Venezuelan oil and requires Venezuela to cut economic ties with China and Russia [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The tin trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend. The range of trend intensity is [- 2,2], with - 2 representing the most bearish and 2 representing the most bullish [2][3]