锡周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 日期：2025年9月14日 | | | 本周收盘价 | 周涨幅% | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪锡主力合约 | 273,950 | 0.55% | 274,160 | 0.48% | | | 伦锡3M电子盘 | 19,920 | 2.65% | - | - | | | | 本周五成交 | 较上周五变动 | 本周五持仓 | 较上周五变动 | | 期 货 | 沪锡主力合约 | 69,879 | 15,768 | 27,490 | -2,637 | | | 伦锡3M电子盘 | 608 | 193 | 14,318 | -164 | | | | 本周库存 | 较上周变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较上周变动 | | | 沪锡 | 7,326 | -71 | - | - | | | 伦锡 | 2,620 | 390 | 7.06% | 0.62% | | | | | 本周五 | 上周五 | 较上周变动 | | | SMM 1#锡锭价格 | | 26 ...

2025 年 7 月 24 日 锡：佤邦洪灾扰动价格 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 锡基本面数据 | 锡基本面数据 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅% | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | | 沪锡主力合约 | 268,540 | 0.01% | #N/A | #N/A | | 期 货 | 伦锡3M电子盘 | 34,750 | 2.45% | - | - | | 及 现 | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 货 电 | 沪锡主力合约 | 69,039 | 5,372 | 15,704 | -1,057 | | 子 盘 | 伦锡3M电子盘 | 180 | - 9 | 13,988 | 5 3 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较 ...

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Tin: Upward Movement Driven by Macroeconomic Environment" and was released on July 2, 2025 [1] Group 2: Analysts' Information - The analysts are Wang Rong (Investment Consulting Qualification No.: Z0002529, Email: wangrong013179@gtjas.com) and Liu Yuxuan (Investment Consulting Qualification No.: Z0020476, Email: liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com) [2] Group 3: Tin Fundamental Data Futures and Electronic Disk - The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract yesterday was 269,840, with a daily increase of 0.65%, and the night - session closing price was 269,840, with a night - session increase of 0.63%. The trading volume was 70,070, a decrease of 14,968 from the previous day, and the open interest was 31,494, an increase of 10 from the previous day. The inventory was 6,766, an increase of 16 from the previous day [2] - The closing price of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 33,750, with a daily increase of 0.55%. The trading volume was 180, a decrease of 9 from the previous day, and the open interest was 13,988, an increase of 53 from the previous day. The inventory was 2,220, an increase of 45 from the previous day, and the注销仓单 ratio was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% from the previous day [2] Spot and Price Differences - The SMM 1 tin ingot price was 266,500, a decrease of 700 from the previous day; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin average price was 266,900, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous day. The LME Tin (spot/three - month) spread was 128, an increase of 7 from the previous day [2] - The spread between the nearby contract and the consecutive first contract was 73,930, unchanged from the previous day; the spread between the spot and the futures main contract was - 1,210, a decrease of 240 from the previous day [2] Industry Chain Key Price Data - The price of 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) was 254,500, a decrease of 700 from the previous day; the price of 60% tin concentrate (Guangxi) was 258,500, a decrease of 700 from the previous day [2] - The price of 63A solder bar was 180,750, a decrease of 500 from the previous day; the price of 60A solder bar was 173,250, a decrease of 500 from the previous day [2] Group 4: Macro and Industry News - The EU is willing to accept a 10% tariff rate on multiple commodities from the US but hopes to exclude key industries [3] - Canada has conceded and cancelled the digital services tax. The US and Canada will resume trade negotiations to reach an agreement by July 21 [3] - US Treasury Secretary Besent said there is no intention to increase the proportion of long - term US Treasury bond issuance; stablecoin legislation may be introduced in mid - July [3] - Trump has expanded his targets of attack, criticizing the Federal Reserve Board including Powell; the White House said Trump wrote to the Federal Reserve on Monday, mentioning global interest rates [3] - China's official manufacturing PMI in June rose for two consecutive months to 49.7, the new order index returned to the expansion range, and the non - manufacturing sector continued to expand [3] Group 5: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of tin is 0, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [- 2,2] interval. - 2 means the most bearish, and 2 means the most bullish [3][4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents a situation of "tight reality and weak expectations" for tin in 2025 [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 265,150 with a daily decline of 0.14%, and the night - session closing price was 264,180 with a decline of 0.18%. The closing price of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 32,560 with a decline of 0.06%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract decreased by 17,972 to 51,029, and the position decreased by 523 to 25,639. The trading volume of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk decreased by 9 to 180, and the position increased by 53 to 13,988 [2]. - **Inventory Data**: The futures inventory of Shanghai Tin increased by 32 to 6,842, and that of LME Tin remained unchanged at 2,365. The cancellation warrant ratio of LME Tin was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% [2]. - **Spot and Price Difference Data**: The SMM 1 tin ingot price decreased by 500 to 265,300, and the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin average price decreased by 500 to 265,100. The LME tin (spot/three - month) spread decreased by 84 to - 79. The spot - to - futures main contract spread decreased by 2,610 to - 430 [2]. - **Industrial Chain Key Price Data**: The prices of 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan), 60% tin concentrate (Guangxi), 63A solder bar, and 60A solder bar all decreased by 500 [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The US May CPI increased by 2.4% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month, falling short of expectations for the fourth consecutive month. Trump's "confidence in the Iran nuclear negotiations has weakened", and US officials said the US would reduce the scale of its mission in Iraq, causing crude oil prices to surge by more than 5% during trading. Musk publicly apologized to Trump. China and the US have basically reached an agreement framework. The US Federal Appellate Court extended the validity of Trump's tariffs, and a key hearing will be held at the end of July. The EU refused to compromise on Trump's tariff deadline and plans to postpone trade negotiations until after July. US Treasury Secretary Besent said US inflation data was "very good" [3][4]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of tin is 0, indicating a neutral view. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [5].

| 锡基本面数据 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅% | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | | 沪锡主力合约 | 250,300 | -2.94% | 250,300 | -2.87% | | 期 货 | 伦锡3M电子盘 | 30,545 | 1.04% | - | - | | 及 现 | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 货 电 | 沪锡主力合约 | 149,442 | 47,675 | 33,504 | 4,894 | | 子 盘 | 伦锡3M电子盘 | 180 | - 9 | 13,988 | 5 3 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪 锡 | #N/A | #N/A | - | - | | | 伦 锡 | 2,605 | -75 | 6.57% | -0.38% | | | | | 昨 日 | 前 日 | 较前日变动 | | | | SMM 1#锡锭价格 | 264,400 | 265,400 | -1,0 ...

2025 年 5 月 30 日 锡：下破震荡区间 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 锡基本面数据 | | 锡基本面数据 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅% | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | | | 沪锡主力合约 | 257,870 | 0.34% | 251,810 | -2.28% | | 期 | 货 | 伦锡3M电子盘 | 30,850 | -2.05% | - | - | | 及 | 现 | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 货 | 电 | 沪锡主力合约 | 101,767 | 5,435 | 28,610 | 389 | | 子 | 盘 | 伦锡3M电子盘 | 180 | - 9 | 13,988 | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The tin market shows a narrow - range oscillation [1] - The trend strength of tin is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view [4] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs 1. Tin Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices and Changes**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract yesterday was 261,480 with a daily increase of 0.10%, and the night - session closing price was 261,450 with a night - session increase of 0.30%. The LME Tin 3M electronic disk closed at 31,800 with a daily increase of 0.49% [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract yesterday was 104,324, an increase of 14,007 from the previous day, and the open interest was 30,964, a decrease of 979. The trading volume of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 180, a decrease of 9, and the open interest was 13,988, an increase of 53 [2] - **Futures Inventory and Changes**: The inventory of Shanghai Tin was 8,334, a decrease of 34, and the inventory of LME Tin was 2,755, unchanged. The cancellation warrant ratio of LME Tin was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% [2] - **Spot Prices and Spreads**: The SMM 1 tin ingot price was 263,000, an increase of 2,000 from the previous day; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin average price was 261,900, an increase of 1,000. The LME tin (spot/three - month) spread was - 158, an increase of 7. The spot - to - futures main contract spread was 670, an increase of 740 [2] - **Industrial Chain Key Prices**: The price of 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) was 250,500, an increase of 2,000; the price of 60% tin concentrate (Guangxi) was 254,500, an increase of 2,000. The price of 63A solder bar was 178,250, an increase of 1,000, and the price of 60A solder bar was 171,250, an increase of 1,500 [2] 2. Macro and Industry News - The UK and the US have reached an agreement on the terms of the tariff trade agreement, details to be finalized. Trump said the agreement with the UK is not a template, 10% may be the minimum, and tariffs on other countries may be higher [2][3] - The EU will sue the US at the WTO over tariffs and is preparing counter - measures against 95 billion euros of US imports, targeting cars, airplanes, and whiskey [2][3] - Trump called on people to "buy stocks", criticized Powell again for being slow, and said there is almost no inflation [2][3] - Facing tariff shocks, the Bank of England cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but there were three - way differences in the decision - making [2][3] - Kazakhstan said it has no plan to cut oil production in May, challenging the OPEC+ led by Saudi Arabia [2][3] - The conflict between India and Pakistan escalated, with explosions in many places. The Pakistani stock market tumbled 7%, and the Indian rupee against the US dollar had its largest decline in more than three years [2] - Google responded to the decline in search traffic on Apple devices, saying it still sees continuous growth in the total number of search queries. Morgan Stanley said the threat of AI to search is over - exaggerated, and it's the best time to buy Google stocks [4]

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 2025 年 5 月 7 日 锡：假期间价格走弱 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 锡基本面数据 | 锡基本面数据 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅% | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | | 沪锡主力合约 | 260,970 | 0.26% | 262,210 | 0.73% | | 期 货 | 伦锡3M电子盘 | 31,995 | 3.61% | - | - | | 及 现 | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 货 电 | 沪锡主力合约 | 67,627 | -27,339 | 29,144 | -1,454 | | | 伦锡3M电子盘 | 180 | - 9 | 13,988 | 5 3 ...