（文/刘媛媛 编辑/周远方） 今年春晚，很多人会发现一件事：舞台上的画面，跟以前不太一样了。 徐悲鸿的《六骏图》大家都不陌生，但这回，六匹马真的在屏幕上跑了起来，还是带着水墨质感的跑法；《贺花神》节目中，蜀葵花一点点绽放，花瓣上 的光影变化都能看得清清楚楚；更绝的是，演员刘浩存跳舞时，好几个她同时出现在舞台上，仔细看那些"分身"的影子，居然能随着现场灯光实时变 化…… 这不再是传统的舞台特效，而是AI大模型第一次大规模"上岗"国家级晚会的内容创作。字节跳动带着豆包大模型家族，还有火山引擎，参与了春晚好几个 节目的创作。从怎么让画面动起来，到怎么把真人变成3D数字分身，再到机器人和演员对话时的声音和语气，背后都有AI在干活。 舞台上是这样，舞台下也有变化。 当主持人让大家打开豆包App的时候，很多人可能没意识到，这和往年也不一样了。以往春晚互动就是摇一摇、抢红包。但这次，大家拿起手机是为了让 AI给自己画张新春头像，或者让它帮忙写段拜年文案。 一个惊人的数据是：除夕当天，豆包AI互动总次数达到了19亿，"豆包过年"活动在除夕帮助用户生成了超过5000万张新春主题头像、超过1亿条新春祝 福。生成式AI真正走进了大 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the evolving safety assessment framework for advanced large models, particularly focusing on their security capabilities in various application scenarios and regulatory contexts [2][6]. Group 1: Safety Assessment Framework - A unified safety assessment framework has been developed for six leading models: GPT-5.2, Gemini 3 Pro, Qwen3-VL, Grok 4.1 Fast, Nano Banana Pro, and Seedream 4.5, covering language, visual language, and image generation scenarios [2]. - The assessment integrates four key dimensions: baseline safety, adversarial testing, multilingual evaluation, and compliance evaluation against global regulatory frameworks [4]. Group 2: Key Findings - GPT-5.2 achieved an average safety rate of 78.39%, demonstrating a shift towards deep semantic understanding and value alignment, significantly reducing failure risks under adversarial inputs [11]. - Gemini 3 Pro's average safety rate is 67.9%, showing strong but uneven safety characteristics, with a notable drop in adversarial robustness [11]. - Qwen3-VL scored an average safety rate of 63.7%, excelling in compliance but showing weaknesses in adversarial safety [12]. - Grok 4.1 Fast has an average safety rate of 55.2%, with significant variability in performance across different assessments [12]. Group 3: Multimodal Safety - GPT-5.2 leads with an average multimodal safety rate of 94.69%, indicating high stability in complex cross-modal scenarios [13]. - Qwen3-VL follows with an average safety rate of 81.11%, showing strong performance in visual-language interaction [13]. Group 4: Model Safety Profiles - GPT-5.2 is characterized as an all-encompassing internalized model, capable of nuanced compliance guidance in complex contexts [19]. - Qwen3-VL is identified as a rule-compliant model, excelling in clear regulatory environments but lacking flexibility in ambiguous scenarios [20]. - Gemini 3 Pro is described as an ethical interaction model, sensitive to social values but needing improvement in proactive risk prevention [21]. - Grok 4.1 Fast is noted for its efficiency-focused design, prioritizing user expression over robust defense mechanisms [22]. Group 5: Challenges in Security Governance - The report highlights the threat of multi-round adaptive attacks, which can bypass static defenses, posing a significant challenge for future model safety governance [27]. - There is a structural imbalance in security performance across languages, with a 20%-40% drop in non-English contexts, raising concerns about global deployment risks [28]. - The lack of transparency and explainability in decision-making processes remains a critical governance shortcoming, particularly in high-risk areas [29]. Conclusion - The report emphasizes the need for a collaborative approach among academia, industry, and regulatory bodies to develop a comprehensive and dynamic safety assessment system for generative AI [30].

Core Insights - The article discusses the launch of Doubao Model 1.8 by Huoshan Engine, which is optimized for multi-modal agent scenarios, featuring a context window of 256k and various token limits for input and output [2][3]. Model Performance - Doubao 1.8 achieves a processing speed of 5000k tokens per minute (TPM) and 30k requests per minute (RPM), leading to significant improvements in various benchmarks, surpassing competitors like Gemini 3 [3][4]. - In specific benchmarks, Doubao 1.8 scored 94.6 in AIME-25 for mathematics and 85.7 in GPQA-Diamond for reasoning, indicating its strong performance across multiple tasks [4]. Multi-modal Capabilities - The model has enhanced multi-modal understanding, excelling in visual judgment, spatial understanding, document parsing, and video motion recognition, positioning it among the global leaders in these areas [3][7]. - Doubao 1.8 can efficiently process long videos, quickly identifying critical moments, which has applications in various sectors such as online education and safety inspections [5][7]. Business Applications - The model's capabilities allow for complex agent construction, which can create significant value across various industries, with a reported daily token usage exceeding 50 trillion, marking a 417-fold increase since its launch [6][16]. - Huoshan Engine introduced the "Doubao Assistant API," enabling businesses to utilize core agent capabilities easily, with plans to expand functionalities [16][17]. Cost Efficiency Initiatives - The "AI Savings Plan" offers unified pricing for enterprises using large models, allowing for cost savings of up to 47% based on usage [17]. - The "Inference Outsourcing" service allows businesses to upload encrypted model parameters without managing GPU infrastructure, potentially halving hardware and operational costs [18][19]. Creative Tools - The article highlights advancements in Doubao's image and video generation capabilities, including the new Seedream and Seedance models, which enhance creative processes in various applications [8][9]. - Seedance 1.5 Pro introduces features like synchronized audio-visual output and multi-language support, significantly improving content creation efficiency [9][13].

Core Insights - Black Forest Labs, a German AI startup, has gained recognition for its FLUX.2 model, ranking second in the latest Artificial Analysis text-to-image model rankings, just behind Google's Nano Banana Pro [2][3] - The company has achieved significant financial milestones, raising over $450 million since its inception in August 2024, with a recent $300 million Series B funding round that tripled its valuation to $3.25 billion [8][22] - Black Forest Labs has established partnerships with major tech companies, including a $140 million multi-year contract with Meta, and collaborations with Adobe and Canva, indicating strong market demand for its AI image generation technology [9][19] Financial Performance - As of August 2023, Black Forest Labs reported an annual recurring revenue of $96.3 million, with projections to reach $300 million by the fiscal year 2026 [19] - The company’s valuation increased from $1 billion to $3.25 billion within a year, reflecting investor confidence and market traction [8][22] Technological Advancements - The FLUX.2 model has been noted for its impressive performance, nearly matching Google's offerings, and supports high-resolution image generation up to 4K [20][22] - Black Forest Labs has positioned itself as a leader in open-source AI models, with its FLUX series gaining significant traction in the developer community, evidenced by over 225,000 downloads on Hugging Face [5][20] Strategic Partnerships - The company has secured substantial contracts with industry giants, including a $35 million payment from Meta in the first year of their partnership, increasing to $105 million in the second year [16] - Collaborations with xAI, Adobe, and Canva have further solidified its market presence, with total contract values exceeding $300 million [19] Market Positioning - Black Forest Labs aims to differentiate itself by focusing on the creative industry, particularly in Hollywood, while maintaining a commitment to intellectual property and enhancing creator capabilities [25] - The company’s strategic location in Freiburg, away from Silicon Valley, has fostered a focused development environment, contributing to its unique corporate culture [23][24]

Macro and Strategy - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is facing a personnel change that will influence future policy direction and independence boundaries, with a key focus on the upcoming 2026 board member replacements [7][8] - The current structure of the FOMC, with a mix of "core dependent" and "institutional defense" members, will determine the continuation of its independence, with potential shifts in policy power dynamics anticipated [8] - The report predicts that the Federal Reserve is likely to enter a phase of "political rate cuts," with increased uncertainty in decision-making frameworks [9] Industry and Company Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery - The investment strategy for December 2025 highlights an expected reversal in the livestock cycle, recommending key stocks in the dairy farming sector such as Yuran Agriculture and Modern Farming [13] - The report emphasizes the potential for a rebound in meat and milk prices, driven by a synchronized recovery in the livestock sector, with leading companies expected to experience significant earnings recovery [13][14] - Recommendations include leading companies in various segments: livestock (Yuran Agriculture, Modern Farming), pork (Hua Tong, De Kang), and pet food (Guaibao Pet) [15][17] Food and Beverage - The food and beverage sector has seen a decline of 1.80% recently, with A-share food and beverage indices underperforming the broader market [18][19] - The report identifies a divergence in performance across categories, with alcoholic beverages facing supply-demand imbalances, while dairy products are expected to see gradual recovery [19][20] - Investment recommendations focus on high-potential companies in the beverage sector, such as Nongfu Spring and East Peak Beverage, as well as premium liquor brands like Luzhou Laojiao and Moutai [19][20] Real Estate - The real estate market is experiencing significant pressure, with a 9.6% year-on-year decline in sales volume and a 6.8% drop in sales area from January to October 2025 [25][26] - The report notes that while non-popular cities are seeing population outflows, local residents still have improvement-driven housing demands, which could stabilize the market [26][28] - Recommendations include focusing on companies that are well-positioned in non-popular cities, such as China Overseas Land & Investment, which can leverage local demand for housing improvements [28] Internet and AI - The report highlights advancements in AI technology, with significant product launches from companies like OpenAI and Tencent, indicating a growing trend in AI applications across various sectors [29][30] - Investment strategies suggest focusing on internet giants that are leveraging AI for growth, with recommendations for Alibaba and Tencent as key players benefiting from AI integration [30] - The report also notes the potential for AI to enhance advertising and cloud service revenues for these companies, suggesting a positive outlook for their financial performance [30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" [7] Core Insights - DeepSeek has launched the V3.2 model, enhancing its reasoning capabilities to a globally leading level, suitable for everyday use in Q&A and general agent tasks [12][27] - The V3.2 model achieved performance comparable to GPT-5 in benchmark tests, slightly below Gemini-3.0-Pro, while significantly reducing output length and computational costs [12][27] - The introduction of the DSA (DeepSeek Sparse Attention) mechanism reduces context computation costs, changing complexity from O(L²) to O(Lk), where k is a fixed value of 2048 [13][14] - The report highlights the launch of the Doubao mobile assistant, which integrates AI capabilities into mobile operating systems, allowing users to perform complex tasks with voice commands [15] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The computer sector underperformed relative to the Shanghai Composite Index, with a 1-month relative return of -5.4% and a 3-month return of -4.5% [5][16] - The computer sector index ranked 25th among 30 industry indices, indicating weaker performance [19] Important Industry News - Google’s TPUv7 has begun to challenge NVIDIA's dominance in AI chips, marking a significant shift in the competitive landscape [25] - The 2025 World Computing Conference showcased advancements in computing systems, emphasizing the importance of system capabilities over individual card performance [26]