Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View - The PX market continues to be strong, driven by speculative funds pre - arranging long positions for 2026. Current supporting factors have exceeded pure financial drivers: the decline in gasoline blending profit has made the reforming unit close to the break - even point between aromatics extraction and gasoline production. The PX - MX spread has widened to over $150, and the PX - naphtha spread has reached $370, significantly improving PX production economics. South Korean factories are expected to increase production in January but are limited by some reforming unit overhauls. Domestic PTA maintains high operation, domestic demand has declined, and the production cuts of polyester factories have had a negative feedback on PTA. PTA consumption remains high, but mainstream polyester factories have advanced overhauls and are selling PTA raw materials, and the basis has weakened rapidly [2] Summary of Related Catalogs Price and Index Changes - PTA spot price increased from 4960 to 4970, PTA closing price rose from 5018 to 5030, MEG inner - market price dropped from 3665 to 3637, and MEG closing price decreased from 3796 to 3755. 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple fiber price increased from 6405 to 6450, short - fiber basis rose from 57 to 67, and 3 - 4 spread remained unchanged at 44. Polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber price remained at 5250, and the price difference between 1.4D direct - spinning and imitation large - chemical fiber increased from 1155 to 1200. East China water bottle chip price increased from 6007 to 6020, hot - filling polyester bottle chip price rose from 6007 to 6020, carbonated - grade polyester bottle chip price increased from 6107 to 6120, and outer - market water bottle chip price remained at 805. Bottle - chip spot processing fee increased from 538 to 552, T32S pure polyester yarn price dropped from 10600 to 10570, T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee decreased from 4195 to 4120, polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price increased from 16600 to 16700, cotton 328 price dropped from 15450 to 15440, polyester - cotton yarn profit increased from 1513 to 1587, and the price of primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) decreased from 7210 to 7165. The cash flow of hollow staple fiber 6 - 15D decreased from 541 to 497, and the price of primary low - melting - point staple fiber decreased from 7775 to 7760 [2] Market Conditions - Short - fiber: The short - fiber main futures rose 2 to 6398. In the spot market, the prices of polyester staple fiber production factories declined slightly, the prices of traders fluctuated, downstream buyers purchased as needed, and the on - site transactions were tepid. The price of 1.56dtex*38mm semi - bright natural white (1.4D) polyester staple fiber in the East China market was 6320 - 6550 yuan for cash on delivery, tax - included self - pick - up; in the North China market, it was 6440 - 6670 yuan for cash on delivery, tax - included delivery; in the Fujian market, it was 6350 - 6500 yuan for cash on delivery, tax - included delivery. Bottle - chip: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was 6000 - 6100 yuan/ton, with the average price dropping 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. PTA and bottle - chip futures fluctuated, the cost - end support weakened, the supply - end quotations were a mix of stability and decline, the on - site spot supply was slightly tight, downstream end - users replenished stocks for rigid demand, the negotiation atmosphere was light, and the market negotiation center dropped slightly [2] Operating Rate and Sales Rate - The direct - spinning short - fiber load (weekly) increased from 86.77% to 88.84%, the polyester staple fiber sales rate decreased from 74.00% to 60.00%, the polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) remained at 66.00%, and the recycled cotton - type load index (weekly) remained at 51.10% [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The PX market has experienced a rapid increase, mainly driven by speculative funds rather than fundamental changes. The futures market dominates price discovery, showing "irrational exuberance" characteristics. Although there are concerns about bubbles, the PX fundamentals are supported, and the market is expected to remain tight in 2026. The PX - naphtha spread has widened to $360, and the PX - mixed xylene spread has reached $155, improving aromatics extraction economics. The PX market is at a critical point where speculative sentiment and fundamentals are intertwined. Domestic PTA maintains high operation rates, benefiting from stable domestic demand and the resumption of exports to India since the end of November. High gasoline spreads support aromatics. New polyester installations drive high polyester loads, keeping PTA consumption high, and the market's inventory intention increases with a rapidly strengthening basis. Although domestic polyester demand weakens seasonally, polyester factory production cuts are insufficient to form a negative feedback [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog Price Changes - PTA spot price increased from 5060 to 5075, a change of 15 [2]. - MEG domestic price increased from 3686 to 3711, a change of 25 [2]. - PTA closing price decreased from 5140 to 5116, a change of -24 [2]. - MEG closing price increased from 3815 to 3867, a change of 52 [2]. - 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price decreased from 6520 to 6510, a change of -10 [2]. - Short - fiber basis increased from 34 to 42, a change of 8 [2]. - 2 - 3 spread decreased from 16 to 18, a change of -2 [2]. - Polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, a change of 6 [2]. - 1.4D direct - spun and imitation large - chemical fiber spread decreased from 1270 to 1260, a change of -10 [2]. - East China water - bottle chip price increased from 6097 to 6148, a change of 51 [2]. - Hot - filling polyester bottle chip price increased from 6097 to 6148, a change of 51 [2]. - Carbonated - grade polyester bottle chip price increased from 6197 to 6248, a change of 51 [2]. - T32S pure polyester yarn price remained unchanged at 10600 [2]. - T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee increased from 4080 to 4090, a change of 10 [2]. - Polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained unchanged at 16600 [2]. - Cotton 328 price increased from 15610 to 15615, a change of 5 [2]. - Polyester - cotton yarn profit increased from 1377 to 1381, a change of 5 [2]. - Primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) price remained unchanged at 7210 [2]. - Hollow staple fiber 6 - 15D cash flow decreased from 449 to 428, a change of -21 [2]. - Primary low - melting - point staple fiber price remained unchanged at 7775 [2]. Market Conditions - Short - fiber: The short - fiber main futures dropped 32 to 6470. The price of polyester staple fiber production factories was stable, while traders' prices slightly declined. Downstream buyers purchased as needed, and on - site transactions were cautious. The price of 1.56dtex*38mm semi - bright natural white (1.4D) polyester staple fiber in the East China market was 6370 - 6650 RMB/ton (cash, spot, tax - included, self - pick - up), 6490 - 6770 RMB/ton (cash, spot, tax - included, delivered) in the North China market, and 6430 - 6630 RMB/ton (cash, spot, tax - included, delivered) in the Fujian market [2]. - Bottle chips: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was 6140 - 6200 RMB/ton, with the average price increasing by 30 RMB/ton compared to the previous working day. PTA and bottle - chip futures were strong, with strong cost - side support. Most supply - side offers were raised, market spot supplies were tight, the low - end price center continued to move up, and the market negotiation center increased [2]. Operating Rates and Sales Ratios - Direct - spun staple fiber load (weekly) increased from 86.77% to 88.84%, a change of 2.07% [3]. - Polyester staple fiber sales ratio decreased from 80.00% to 72.00%, a change of -8.00% [3]. - Polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) remained unchanged at 66.00% [3]. - Recycled cotton - type load index (weekly) remained unchanged at 51.10% [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core View of the Report - The PX market has experienced a rapid rise, mainly driven by speculative funds rather than fundamental changes. The futures market is leading the price - discovery mechanism, showing a "irrational prosperity" feature with self - reinforcing trends. Although there are concerns about bubbles, the PX fundamentals are supported, and the market is expected to remain tight in 2026. The PX - naphtha spread has widened to $360, and the PX - mixed xylene spread has reached $155, improving the economics of aromatics extraction. The PX market is at a critical juncture between speculative sentiment and fundamental tensions. [2] Group 3: Summary According to the Data in the Report Price and Price Change - From January 9th to January 12th, 2026, the PTA spot price rose from 5035 to 5100, an increase of 65; the MEG inner - market price rose from 3697 to 3734, an increase of 37; the PTA closing price rose from 5108 to 5142, an increase of 34; the MEG closing price rose from 3866 to 3880, an increase of 14; the 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple fiber price rose from 6515 to 6520, an increase of 5; the short - fiber basis decreased from 54 to 38, a decrease of 16; the 2 - 3 spread remained unchanged at 18; the polyester staple fiber cash - flow increased from 240 to 246, an increase of 6; the 1.4D imitation - large - chemical fiber price remained unchanged at 5275; the price difference between 1.4D direct - spinning and imitation - large - chemical fiber increased from 1240 to 1245, an increase of 5; the East - China water - bottle chip price rose from 6062 to 6125, an increase of 63; the hot - filling polyester bottle chip price rose from 6062 to 6125, an increase of 63; the carbonated - grade polyester bottle chip price rose from 6162 to 6225, an increase of 63; the outer - market water - bottle chip price rose from 800 to 810, an increase of 10; the bottle - chip spot processing fee decreased from 519 to 514, a decrease of 5; the T32S pure - polyester yarn price rose from 10500 to 10600, an increase of 100; the T32S pure - polyester yarn processing fee rose from 3985 to 4080, an increase of 95; the polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained unchanged at 16600; the cotton 328 price decreased from 15510 to 15365, a decrease of 145; the polyester - cotton yarn profit increased from 1418 to 1469, an increase of 51; the primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) price remained unchanged at 7210; the hollow staple fiber 6 - 15D cash - flow decreased from 467 to 399, a decrease of 68; the primary low - melting - point staple fiber price remained unchanged at 7775. [2] Market Conditions - **Short - fiber market**: The short - fiber main futures rose 8 to 6502. The polyester staple fiber production factory prices were stable, and the trader prices increased slightly. Downstream buyers purchased as needed, and the on - site transactions were light. The price of 1.56dtex*38mm semi - bright natural white (1.4D) polyester staple fiber in the East - China market was 6400 - 6650 for cash - on - delivery, tax - included self - pick - up; in the North - China market, it was 6520 - 6770 for cash - on - delivery, tax - included delivery; in the Fujian market, it was 6460 - 6630 for cash - on - delivery, tax - included delivery. The direct - spinning staple - fiber load increased from 86.77% to 88.84%, and the polyester staple - fiber production and sales increased from 72.00% to 87.00%. The polyester - yarn startup rate and the recycled cotton - type load index remained unchanged. [2][3] - **Bottle - chip market**: Crude oil continued to rise, and raw materials were strong. Supply continued to shrink, and polyester bottle - chip factory quotes mostly increased by 10 - 100. The market center increased significantly. It was reported that the January supply was traded at 6050 - 6140, with some supplies slightly lower at 6030, 6000, and slightly higher at 6170. The basis was stable, and the 2603 contract was at par to a premium of 40. Downstream buyers made sporadic spot purchases for rigid needs, and the trading was light. [2] Industry Situation - Domestic PTA maintained a high operating rate, benefiting from stable domestic demand and the resumption of exports to India since the end of November. The high gasoline spread supported aromatics. The commissioning of new polyester plants kept the polyester load at a high level, the PTA consumption remained high, and the market's inventory - stocking willingness increased, with the basis strengthening rapidly. Although domestic polyester demand weakened seasonally, the production cuts by polyester factories were not enough to form a negative feedback. [2][3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestic PTA plants are gradually returning, and domestic PTA production is rising. PTA profit is still constrained by over - capacity and new plant commissioning. Previously, due to pessimistic demand and new plant commissioning expectations, PTA processing fees were low. Recently, demand has improved, new plant commissioning has been postponed, and some enterprises have cut production to maintain prices, so PTA processing fees show signs of recovery [2] - Polyester load remains above 90%, but there is no significant inventory accumulation, indicating that market demand is still optimistic at low prices, especially export demand. Promotions by mainstream factories have led to a small peak in National Day备货. Under the environment of low processing fees and market anti - involution, PTA operating rate may further improve [2] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Data Spot and Futures Price Changes - PTA spot price remained at 4590 from September 26th to September 29th, 2025; MEG inner - market price increased from 4294 to 4295; PTA closing price rose from 4646 to 4652; MEG closing price increased from 4213 to 4224 [2] - 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple fiber price decreased from 6495 to 6480; short - fiber basis increased from 102 to 110; 10 - 11 spread decreased from 2 to 22 [2] Market Conditions of Short - fiber and Bottle - chip - In the short - fiber market, the price of polyester staple fiber production plants is stable, and the price of traders is in a sideways shock. Downstream buyers purchase as needed, and on - site transactions are limited. The price of 1.56dtex*38mm semi - bright natural white (1.4D) polyester staple fiber varies in different regions [2] - In the bottle - chip market, the mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle - chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets is 5790 - 5890 yuan/ton, with the average price down 5 yuan/ton from the previous working day. PTA and bottle - chip futures first fell and then rose, supply offers were mixed, downstream terminals mainly watched, and market transactions were scarce [2] Operating Rates and Production and Sales - The weekly load of direct - spinning short - fiber decreased from 93.90% to 94.40%; polyester staple fiber production and sales increased from 45.00% to 52.00%; the weekly opening rate of polyester yarn remained at 63.50%; the weekly load index of recycled cotton - type increased from 51.00% to 51.50% [3]

ITG 国贸期货 世界500强投资企业 国贸期货有限公司 成为一流的衍生品综合服务商 入 用 市 市 W FF 客 服 热线 官 方 网 站 la jat 400-8888-598 www.itf.com.cn | | | | 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心 陈胜 | 投资咨询号 Z0017251 2025/5/16 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 从业资格号: | | | | | | F3066728 | | 指标 | 2025/5/14 | 2025/5/15 | 变动值 | | | PTA现货价格 | 5095 | 5030 | (65.00) | | | MEG内盘价格 | 4635 | 4581 | (54. 00) | 现货资讯: | | PTA收盘价 | 4874 | 4798 | (76.00) | 短纤:涤纶短纤跌16至6570。现货市场:涤纶 | | | | | | 短纤生产企业价格上调,贸易商价格偏弱,下游 | | MEG收盘价 | 4506 | 4461 | (45.00) | 观望为主,场内成交稀少。1.56dtex*38mm ...