资,责任自负。本报告仅向特定客户推送,未经国贸期货授权许可,任何引用、转载以 行传播的行为均构成对国贸期货的侵权,我司将视情况追究法律责 险,入市需谨慎。 ITG国贸期货 世界500强投资企业 国贸期货有限公司 成为一流的衍生品综合服务商 入 用 市 南 lle 41 客 官 方 网 站 服 热线 la 风 400-8888-598 www.itf.com.cn 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 【一国贸易报 瓶片短纤数据日报 | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | 投资咨询号:Z0017251 2026/1/8 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 能源化工研究中心 陈胜 | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | 指标 | 2026/1/6 | 2026/1/7 | 变动值 | | | PTA现货价格 | 5030 | 5080 | 50 | | | | | | | 现货资讯: | | MEG内盘价格 | 3666 | 3719 | 53 | 短纤:短纤主力期货下跌82到6462。现货市场: | | PTA收盘价 | 5150 | 5150 | 0 | ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 【一国贸易报 瓶片短纤数据日报 受,责任自负。本报告仅向特定客户推送,未经国贸期货授权许可,任何引用、转载以 行传播的行为均构成对国贸期货的侵权,我司将视情况追究法律责 险,入市需谨慎。 ITG国贸期货 世界500强投资企业 国贸期货有限公司 成为一流的衍生品综合服务商 入 用 市 南 lle 41 客 官 方 网 站 服 热线 la 风 400-8888-598 www.itf.com.cn | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | 投资咨询号:Z0017251 2026/1/7 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 能源化工研究中心 陈胜 | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | 指标 | 2026/1/5 | 2026/1/6 | 变动值 | | | PTA现货价格 | 5030 | 5080 | 50 | 现货资讯: | | MEG内盘价格 | 3640 | 3666 | 26 | 短纤:短纤主力期货涨38到6532。现货市场:涤 | | | | | | 纶短纤生产工厂价格窄幅波动,贸易商价格跟涨 | | PTA收盘 ...

装置检修动态: 西北一套120万吨PTA装置重启,该装置上周初停车。 ·PTA现货价格 - MEG内盘 基差 -- PTA现货价格 -- PTA主力期货价格 8000 - 1700 9200 1500 7000 1300 8200 1100 6000 7200 900 700 5000 6200 500 5200 4000 300 100 4200 3000 -100 3200 -300 2000 2023- 2023- 2024- 2024- 2024- 2024- 2025- 2025- 2026- 2025-01 2025-03 2025-05 2025-07 2025-09 2025-11 05 01 09 05 09 01 09 02 01 01 数据图表 800 现货加工区间 -- 盘面加工区间 -DTY现金流 POY现金流 -- FDY现金流 800 涤短现金流 切片现 600' 700 400 600 500 200 400 0 03 300 -200 200 -400 100 0 -600 2023- 2023- 2023- 2024- 2024- 2024- 2025- 2025- 202 ...

UNFX知识分享：影响黄金市场行情的最大因素是美元走势和货币政策，尤其是美联储的利率政策。以 下是具体原因和分析： 美元指数的影响： 美元指数（DXY）是衡量美元对一篮子主要货币汇率的指标。美元指数的变化直接影响黄金价格。 例如，当美元指数上涨时，黄金价格往往承压；当美元指数下跌时，黄金价格往往上涨。 利率变化： 加息：当美联储加息时，持有黄金的机会成本增加（因为黄金不产生利息），投资者可能转向收益更高 的资产（如债券），导致黄金价格下跌。 降息：当美联储降息时，黄金的吸引力增强，价格往往上涨。 黄金与美元的负相关关系： 黄金以美元计价，美元走强时，黄金价格通常下跌，因为持有黄金的成本增加。 美元走弱时，黄金价格通常上涨，因为持有黄金的成本降低。 量化宽松（QE）： 当美联储实施量化宽松政策（如印钞、购债）时，市场流动性增加，通胀预期上升，黄金作为抗通胀资 产，价格往往上涨。 货币政策预期： 市场对美联储政策的预期（如加息或降息的预期）也会影响黄金价格。例如，如果市场预期美联储将加 息，黄金价格可能提前下跌。 经济增长与衰退： 经济强劲时，投资者可能更倾向于风险资产（如股票），黄金需求下降，价格可能下跌。 经 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 免责声 本报告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料,国贸期货力求准确可靠,但不对上述信息的准确性及完整性做任何 保证。本报告不构成个人投资建议,也未针对个别投资者特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要,投资者需自行 断本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况,据此投资,责任自负。本报告仅向特定客户推送 货登权许可, 任何引用、转载以及向第三方传播的行为均构成对国贸期货的侵权 责任。期市有风险,入市需谨慎。 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0017251 | 2026/1/6 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | | 指标 | 2025/12/31 | 2026/1/5 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | SC | INE原油(元/桶) PTA-SC(元/陣) | 432. 2 1969. 2 | 421.7 1981.5 | -10. 50 12. 30 | 成交情况: PT ...

PTA消费量维持高位,并且市场囤货意愿增加, 直纺短纤负荷(周) 88. 37% 89. 32% 0. 95% 基差快速走强;聚酯需求虽受国内季节走弱,但 涤纶短纤产销 55. 00% 57.00% 2. 00% 由于聚酯工厂的减产不足以形成负反馈。以上提 涤纱开机率(周) 66. 00% 66. 00% 0. 00% 据来自万得资讯。 再生棉型负荷指数(周) 51. 10% 51. 10% 0. 00% 涤纶短纤与纯净纱价格 涤纶短纤现金流 14000 10000 10000 1800 T325加工费(左特) 理与命像出52EL (探偵) 太原始術 条短现金流 ·1.4D自纺余提 9000 9000 13000 1400 8000 8000 12000 1000 7000 7000 6000 11000 6000 5000 200 T0000 5000 4000 4000 -200 9000 + 3000 2021-01-01 2022-01-01 2023-01-01 2024-01-01 2025-01-01 2021-01-01 2022-01-01 2025-01-01 2023-01-01 202 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global precious metals market is experiencing a historic surge, with gold and silver prices reaching all-time highs, driven by factors such as U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, trade policies, and structural supply-demand imbalances [1][4][5]. Group 1: Price Movements - On December 26, 2025, spot gold prices reached a peak of $4549.9 per ounce, while silver hit $79.4 per ounce, marking an annual increase of over 174% for silver [1][2]. - Year-to-date, COMEX gold futures and London spot gold prices have both risen by more than 70% [2]. - Domestic markets also saw significant increases, with Shanghai gold futures up 62% and silver futures up over 157% [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The surge in precious metals is attributed to a combination of factors, including the Fed's interest rate cuts, which have created a liquidity-friendly environment, and a persistent supply-demand imbalance in the silver market [4][5]. - Silver has been in a supply deficit for five consecutive years, with industrial demand in sectors like photovoltaics and electronics providing additional support for prices [5]. Group 3: Regulatory Responses - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has adjusted trading parameters for gold and silver futures to mitigate excessive speculation and maintain market stability [3]. - The new trading limits include a 15% price fluctuation cap and increased margin requirements [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that gold prices may continue to rise in 2026, potentially reaching $5000 per ounce, although the growth rate may slow to 10%-15% due to previous price increases [7]. - The market is expected to experience increased volatility as it reacts to U.S. monetary policy and economic conditions [7]. - There are warnings about the risks associated with high volatility in silver prices and the potential for profit-taking [7].

Core Viewpoint - The price of spot silver has surged, breaking the $60 per ounce mark and reaching $61.62, with a monthly increase of nearly 9% and an annual increase of over 112% [1][3]. Group 1: Price Movement - Spot silver prices rose significantly, with a peak increase of over 1.3% during the European session on December 10 [1]. - The price has shown a consistent upward trend, potentially marking the eighth consecutive month of gains [1]. Group 2: Market Drivers - The recent surge in silver prices is attributed to supply tightness and speculative investments, driven by expectations of further monetary easing by the Federal Reserve [3]. - Market expectations indicate an 87.6% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which typically benefits non-yielding precious metals like silver [3]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment - There is a strong retail and speculative investor base in silver, which tends to attract more funds when upward momentum is established [3]. - Despite a significant 20% increase over the past three weeks, market sentiment remains strong, with discussions of silver potentially reaching $100 [3]. Group 4: Supply Dynamics - Silver inventory has been steadily decreasing, with mining output failing to meet demand from investors and industrial applications, leading to ongoing supply shortages [4]. - The U.S. Geological Survey has added silver to its list of critical minerals, which may face tariffs or trade restrictions, further tightening supply [4]. - Concerns over tariffs have led traders to move silver to the U.S., exacerbating supply issues in other regions [4].

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices is primarily attributed to the retreat of speculative funds, marking the end of a "hot potato" game, prompting a reevaluation of gold's true attributes and investment logic [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The drop in gold prices reflects a concentrated release of speculative sentiment in the capital markets, with gold being viewed as a financial instrument rather than a traditional safe-haven asset [3]. - Daily trading volumes in gold on exchanges like New York and London far exceed global annual production, indicating that much of the trading is merely a numerical game influenced by leverage, making gold prices susceptible to speculative activities [3]. - The recent strong U.S. employment and inflation data have shaken confidence in continued Federal Reserve rate cuts, leading to a stronger dollar and reduced support for gold prices [6]. Group 2: Investor Perspectives - Different holders of gold face varied circumstances; physical gold holders, such as consumers with gold jewelry or bars, are less affected by short-term price fluctuations due to the intrinsic value of physical gold [5]. - In contrast, investors in gold ETFs, futures, and stocks must recognize that these products are part of the capital market game, subject to speculative emotions and leverage, highlighting the risks involved [5]. - The current market adjustment serves as a warning against blind following in investment strategies, emphasizing the need for investors to understand the dual nature of gold as both a physical asset and a financial instrument [8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Industry experts suggest that while the long-term value of gold remains supported by high global debt, monetary expansion, and geopolitical risks, the market is likely to enter a phase of consolidation or volatility as speculative bubbles are digested [8]. - Investors are advised to clarify their objectives when investing in gold, whether seeking long-term preservation through physical gold or engaging in high-risk financial products, and to avoid chasing prices [8].

Core Viewpoint - Platinum prices have surged significantly, outperforming gold, with a year-to-date increase of over 47%, driven by supply constraints and rising demand [1][3]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global platinum supply is expected to decline, with a 10% year-on-year decrease in Q1 2025 to 45.3 tons, and an annual forecast of 218 tons, down 4% from 2024 [3]. - South Africa, the largest platinum producer, is facing challenges such as power shortages and rising extraction costs, leading to a 4% decline in production in Q1 2025, with a projected 15% decrease over the next five years [3]. - Global platinum demand is anticipated to grow by 10% year-on-year in Q1 2025 to 70.7 tons, with an annual forecast of 247.7 tons, resulting in a supply-demand gap of 30 tons [3]. Group 2: Investment Trends - Investment demand for platinum has increased significantly, with a 28% quarter-on-quarter rise globally, and a 140% year-on-year surge in China, making it the largest retail investment market for platinum [3][4]. - Platinum ETF holdings have increased by 3% year-on-year, with the PPLT fund in the U.S. growing from $1 billion to $1.4 billion within two months [3]. Group 3: Jewelry and Industrial Demand - In Q1 2025, platinum jewelry demand in China rose by 26% year-on-year, while India also saw significant growth due to export needs [4]. - Despite a slight decline in overall industrial demand, platinum remains strong in sectors like automotive catalysts, hydrogen technology, and chemicals, with a 12% year-on-year increase in automotive catalyst demand [4]. Group 4: Price Outlook and Speculation - Goldman Sachs suggests that the rapid rise in platinum prices is primarily driven by speculative investments and increased ETF holdings rather than fundamental improvements, indicating potential price correction risks [4]. - Deutsche Bank forecasts that platinum prices could reach $1,400 per ounce by the end of next year [4].