Core Viewpoint - The "super cycle" of storage chip prices is likely to persist for some time, driven by the increasing demand for high-bandwidth memory from AI accelerators like NVIDIA's H100, leading to significant price increases in DRAM and NAND chips [4][20]. Supply Chain Dynamics - The demand surge for high-performance SSDs and high-end memory from AI data centers has led manufacturers to prioritize production for higher-margin products, resulting in a squeeze on supply for mid-range DDR and client SSDs, thus pushing up prices [7]. - By 2025, the global DRAM market revenue is expected to exceed $200 billion, with HBM contributing over half of the profit growth despite accounting for less than 30% of the market [7]. - The average bill of materials (BOM) for laptops typically sees DRAM and NAND accounting for 10-20% of costs, meaning a 20% increase in storage costs could raise BOM by $30-50, potentially eroding 3-6 percentage points of gross margin if manufacturers cannot pass on costs [7][8]. Impact on PC Manufacturers - Consumer-oriented manufacturers like Dell, HP, and Acer are particularly vulnerable to rising storage costs due to their high reliance on the consumer market, where price sensitivity is extreme [8]. - According to Morgan Stanley, Dell and HP are the most sensitive to storage price increases, with expected declines in PC gross margins of 2-4 percentage points in FY2026 [8]. - Lenovo and Apple are viewed as potential beneficiaries of the storage price uptrend due to their strong customer bases and supply chain management capabilities [4][5]. Resilience of Lenovo and Apple - Lenovo's high proportion of enterprise customers (over 65%) allows for better cost transfer capabilities compared to competitors reliant on consumer sales [12]. - Lenovo's market share exceeds 25%, providing significant leverage in supply chain negotiations, while its long-term contracts with enterprise clients help stabilize pricing [11][12]. - Apple maintains strong control over its supply chain through long-term contracts with suppliers, allowing it to secure favorable pricing and prioritize its production needs [16][17]. Long-term Outlook - The current surge in storage chip prices is reshaping the cost structure of the PC industry, with Lenovo and Apple positioned to weather the storm better than their competitors [10][19]. - The ongoing "super cycle" may accelerate market share differentiation among PC manufacturers, potentially benefiting Lenovo and Apple in the long run [20].

Core Viewpoint - The global storage chip contract prices have experienced a rare nonlinear surge since Q2 2025, driven by the high demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) from AI accelerators like NVIDIA's H100, leading to a significant impact on traditional PC DRAM and NAND supply and pricing [2][4][18] Supply Chain Dynamics - The demand for high-performance SSDs and HBM has led manufacturers to prioritize production for higher-margin products, resulting in a squeeze on mid-range DDR and client SSD supplies, which in turn drives up spot and contract prices [4][5] - By 2025, the global DRAM market revenue is expected to exceed $200 billion, with HBM contributing over half of the profit growth despite accounting for less than 30% of the market [4][5] Impact on PC Manufacturers - Traditional PC manufacturers like Dell, HP, and Acer are facing significant pressure on profit margins due to rising storage costs, with estimates suggesting a potential decline in PC gross margins by 2-4 percentage points for Dell and HP in FY 2026 [6][10] - The average storage cost increase of 20% for an $800 laptop could add $30-$50 to the bill of materials (BOM), potentially eroding 3-6 percentage points of gross margin if manufacturers cannot fully pass on costs [5][6] Resilience of Lenovo and Apple - Lenovo and Apple are viewed as exceptions that may benefit from the storage price surge due to their strong customer bases and supply chain management capabilities [3][18] - Lenovo's PC business has a high proportion of enterprise customers (over 65%), allowing for better cost transferability and stability compared to competitors reliant on consumer markets [10][12] - Apple's supply chain control and high-end product positioning enable it to transfer costs more effectively, with a lower BOM percentage for storage components [15][16] Competitive Advantages - Lenovo's market share and procurement strategies provide it with significant bargaining power, allowing it to secure better contract prices and prioritize delivery from suppliers [14][18] - Apple maintains a strong position in the supply chain through long-term contracts with suppliers, ensuring priority access to components and lower costs [15][16] Market Outlook - The ongoing surge in storage chip prices is likely to reshape the cost structure of the entire PC industry, with Lenovo and Apple expected to maintain or even expand their market shares amid the turmoil [18]

Core Viewpoint - The global storage chip contract prices have experienced a rare nonlinear surge since Q2 2025, driven by the high demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) from AI accelerators like NVIDIA's H100, leading to a tightening supply of traditional PC DRAM and NAND [1][3][15] Supply Chain Dynamics - The demand for high-performance SSDs and HBM has led manufacturers to prioritize production for high-margin products, resulting in a squeeze on mid-to-low-end DDR and client SSD supplies, which in turn drives up spot and contract prices [3][7] - By 2025, the global DRAM market revenue is expected to exceed $200 billion, with HBM contributing over half of the profit growth despite accounting for less than 30% of the market [3][15] - Major manufacturers like Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron are shifting their production capacity towards HBM and enterprise SSDs, leading to a significant reduction in traditional PC DRAM supply [3][6] Impact on PC Manufacturers - Consumer-oriented manufacturers such as Dell, HP, and Acer are particularly vulnerable to rising storage costs due to their high reliance on the consumer market, where price sensitivity is extreme [4][6] - The average selling price of global consumer PCs is projected to be around $620 in 2025, making it difficult for these manufacturers to pass on increased costs without risking a decline in sales [4][6] - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that Dell and HP are the most sensitive to storage price increases, with expected declines in PC gross margins by 2-4 percentage points in FY 2026 [4][6] Resilience of Lenovo and Apple - Lenovo and Apple are viewed as exceptions that may benefit from the storage price surge due to their strong customer bases and supply chain management capabilities [1][6][15] - Lenovo's market share exceeds 25%, with over 65% of its revenue coming from enterprise and government clients, allowing it to better absorb cost increases [8][10] - Apple maintains a dominant position in the high-end market, enabling it to quickly pass on costs to consumers, supported by long-term contracts with suppliers that ensure priority access to components [13][15] Long-term Outlook - The current surge in storage prices is expected to continue, potentially leading to a reshaping of the PC industry, with Lenovo and Apple likely to maintain or even expand their market shares during this period [15]

Core Insights - The global storage chip contract prices have experienced a rare nonlinear surge since Q2 2025, driven by the high demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) from AI accelerators like NVIDIA's H100 [1] - Major storage manufacturers such as Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron are shifting production capacity from traditional PC DRAM and NAND to more profitable HBM, tightening supply for traditional PC DRAM and NAND [1][2] - Companies like Lenovo and Apple are viewed as exceptions that may benefit from this storage price upcycle due to their strong customer bases and supply chain management capabilities [1][3] Supply Chain Dynamics - The demand for high-performance SSDs and HBM has surged due to AI data centers, leading manufacturers to prioritize higher-margin products, which in turn has squeezed the supply of mid-range DDR and client SSDs [2] - In 2025, the global DRAM market revenue is expected to exceed $200 billion, with HBM contributing over half of the profit growth despite accounting for less than 30% of the market [2] - The average bill of materials (BOM) for laptops shows that DRAM and NAND typically account for 10-20% of costs, meaning a 20% increase in storage costs could raise BOM by $30-50, significantly impacting profit margins if not passed on to consumers [2] Impact on PC Manufacturers - Consumer-oriented manufacturers like Dell, HP, and Acer are particularly vulnerable to rising storage costs, with their PC businesses heavily reliant on the consumer market [3] - The average selling price of consumer PCs is projected to be around $620 in 2025, making these companies sensitive to price increases, which could lead to a decline in sales or profit margins [3] - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that Dell and HP are the most sensitive to rising storage prices, predicting a 2-4 percentage point decline in their PC gross margins for FY 2026 [3] Resilience of Lenovo and Apple - Lenovo and Apple are better positioned to withstand the pressures of rising storage prices due to their strong supply chain control and customer structures [4][6] - Lenovo's market share exceeds 25%, with over 65% of its revenue coming from enterprise and government clients, allowing it to pass on costs more effectively [6][7] - Apple maintains absolute control over its supply chain, often securing long-term contracts that ensure priority access to components, allowing it to keep costs low and maintain high product prices [9][10] Long-term Outlook - Despite the pressure from rising storage prices, both Lenovo and Apple are expected to maintain or even expand their market shares during this "super cycle" of storage price increases [10] - The current situation is likely to accelerate industry differentiation and reshuffling, with Lenovo and Apple potentially gaining a competitive edge over other PC manufacturers [10]

Core Insights - The global storage chip contract prices have experienced a rare nonlinear surge since Q2 2025, driven by the high demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) from AI accelerators like NVIDIA's H100 [1] - Major storage manufacturers such as Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron are shifting production capacity from traditional PC DRAM and NAND to more profitable HBM, tightening supply for traditional PC DRAM and NAND [1][2] - Companies like Lenovo and Apple are viewed as exceptions that may benefit from this storage price uptrend due to their strong customer bases and supply chain management capabilities [1][3] Supply Chain Dynamics - The demand for high-performance SSDs and HBM has surged due to AI data centers, leading manufacturers to prioritize production for high-margin products, which has squeezed the supply of mid-range DDR and client SSDs [2] - In 2025, the global DRAM market revenue is expected to exceed $200 billion, with HBM contributing over half of the profit growth despite accounting for less than 30% of the market [2] - The average storage cost increase of 20% for an $800 laptop could raise the bill of materials (BOM) by $30-$50, potentially eroding 3-6 percentage points of gross margin if manufacturers cannot pass on costs [2] Impact on Consumer-Oriented Manufacturers - Dell, HP, and Acer, which heavily rely on the consumer market, face significant profit margin threats due to their sensitivity to storage price increases [3] - The average selling price of global consumer PCs is projected to be around $620 in 2025, making these companies vulnerable to price sensitivity in a highly competitive market [3] - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that Dell and HP are the most sensitive to rising storage prices, predicting a 2-4 percentage point decline in their PC gross margins for FY 2026 [3] Resilience of Lenovo and Apple - Lenovo and Apple are better positioned to withstand the pressures of rising storage prices due to their strong supply chain control and customer structure [4][10] - Lenovo's market share exceeds 25%, with over 65% of its revenue coming from enterprise and government clients, allowing it to pass on costs more effectively [6][7] - Apple maintains absolute control over its supply chain, benefiting from long-term contracts that ensure priority access to components, which helps it manage costs effectively [9] Competitive Advantages - Lenovo's procurement strategy, which includes multi-regional sourcing, enhances its bargaining power and allows it to secure better prices and delivery guarantees [8] - Apple's BOM structure has a lower storage cost percentage, allowing it to absorb price increases more easily, and its strong brand allows for higher pricing flexibility [9][10] - Both companies are expected to maintain or even expand their market share during this "super cycle" of storage price increases, leading to greater industry differentiation [10]