地产止跌回稳后的投资机遇——申万宏源·2025 资本市场春 季策略会 20250312 摘要 Q&A 2025 年初以来房地产市场的整体表现如何？ 当前房地产价格走势如何？是否出现波动？ 2025 年初以来，房地产市场在春节后出现了明显回暖。数据显示，主流的 20 个城市二手房认购成交量同比增长了 27%，其中杭州和东莞的表现尤为突出， 甚至翻倍。然而，与 2023 年同期相比，这一数据下降了 17%。需要注意的是， 2023 年的基数较高，因为当时疫情放开导致市场表现异常强劲。尽管如此，一 些城市如杭州、成都、深圳、长沙和沈阳在今年的表现仍超过了 2023 年同期水 • 房地产市场需求在房价下跌后自然回升，杭州、成都、深圳等城市认购销 售数据优于过去两年，北京、上海表现稳定。春节后带看量显著回升，预 示认购量有望进一步改善。 • 房地产价格走势略有走弱，挂牌价格下降但成交价格稳定，受季节性因素 和居民资产负债表影响。新房成交推盘比提升至 2.4 倍，表明新房市场去 化速度加快，市场信心有所恢复。 • 土地市场出现积极变化，北京、上海、杭州等地拍出新"地王"，3 月份 溢价率达 16%，头部企业拿地强度上升， ...

Summary of BeiGene Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: BeiGene - **Industry**: Biotechnology, specifically focused on oncology Key Points and Arguments - **Market Position**: BeiGene is a leading player in the Chinese biotechnology industry, with strong global R&D, production, and commercialization capabilities. The year 2025 is pivotal, with expectations of profitability driven by the expansion of the BTK inhibitor, Zanubrutinib, in overseas markets. Revenue growth is projected at 21%, reaching $6.7 billion by 2027, with profits exceeding $800 million [3][4][29]. - **Product Pipeline**: BeiGene has a comprehensive pipeline in oncology, particularly in hematological malignancies, covering treatment scenarios from initial to relapsed and refractory stages with BTK inhibitors, BCL-2 inhibitors, and BTK-C degradation agents [4][5]. - **Zanubrutinib Performance**: Zanubrutinib has outperformed ibrutinib in head-to-head clinical trials, becoming the preferred therapy for C11 indications. It is expected to generate $2.6 billion in total revenue by 2024, with $2 billion from the U.S. market, marking a year-on-year doubling [4][15][17]. - **BCL-2 Inhibitor Development**: BeiGene is advancing its BCL-2 inhibitor in clinical trials, aiming to challenge existing competitors with fixed therapy approaches. A Phase III trial for chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) is expected to complete enrollment in 2025, with a U.S. market launch anticipated by 2027 [4][18]. - **PD-1 Drug Commercialization**: The PD-1 drug, BaiZeAn, has been approved for 14 indications, with 13 covered by insurance in China. The domestic market is nearing saturation, while overseas markets are expected to contribute $500 million to $1 billion in growth, with peak sales potentially reaching $1 billion [4][23]. - **Breast Cancer Focus**: BeiGene is focusing on CDK4 inhibitors in breast cancer to address toxicity and resistance issues associated with existing CDK46 inhibitors. Early data shows promise, with positive proof of concept (POC) data expected in the first half of 2025 [4][24]. - **Risks**: Key risks include market competition for Zanubrutinib, price reduction risks from the U.S. IRA Act, uncertainties surrounding early clinical products, and potential impacts from biopharmaceutical procurement and insurance policies [4][30]. Additional Important Content - **Stock Performance**: From 2019 to 2021, BeiGene's stock price surged post-product launches. However, from 2022 to 2023, the stock faced pressure due to market conditions. Positive data releases for Zanubrutinib have significantly boosted stock performance [6]. - **Commercialization Team**: BeiGene has a global clinical team of 3,000 and a commercialization team of over 500 in the U.S. and Europe, enabling efficient multi-center clinical trials and substantial sales of nearly $2 billion in molecular drugs [9]. - **Future Growth Projections**: Revenue is expected to grow to $5 billion in 2025, $6 billion in 2026, and $6.7 billion in 2027, with a projected net profit exceeding $800 million by 2027 [29]. - **Valuation Estimates**: Based on management guidance, BeiGene's market value is estimated to reach $30 billion, driven by peak sales of its key products [28]. - **Emerging Competitors**: Several companies are developing BCL-2 targeted drugs, with BeiGene positioned in the leading tier, expecting to read out Phase III data in 2026 [19]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting BeiGene's strategic positioning, product pipeline, market dynamics, and potential risks.

智翔金泰 20250312 摘要 Q&A 浙江银泰在自免领域的布局和进展如何？ 自免领域是全球范围内仅次于肿瘤的第二大治疗领域，浙江银泰在这一领域有 着全面的靶点和适应症布局。白介素-17、TH17、白介素-23 等细胞轴在银屑病 致病机理方面相对清晰，生物制剂处于核心位置。根据 2022 年下半年到 2023 年上半年的统计，美国市场上银屑病治疗领域 90%以上的销售额由天赋阿尔法、 百加 23 和百介 17 这三个靶点贡献，其余 10%则由 PDE4 和 Tik2 的小分子口服 制剂贡献。生物制剂从最早的 TNFα到最新一代产品，如 apple 位的瑞杀猪， • 美国银屑病治疗市场高度集中，90%以上销售额由 TNFα、白介素 23 和白 介素 17 三个靶点生物制剂贡献，疗效随产品迭代不断提升，从 PC50 到 PC90。 • 国内银屑病生物制剂市场竞争激烈，诺华可善挺因价格优势占据较高市场 份额。目前已上市十款生物制剂，浙江银泰与恒瑞国产白介素 17A 产品预 计在医保谈判后迎来销售放量。 • 白介素-4 通路药物市场潜力巨大，赛诺菲达必妥销售额领先。国内赛诺菲 与康诺亚已上市相关药物，多家企业的三期 ...

Summary of Yuyue Medical Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Yuyue Medical - **Industry**: Medical Devices, specifically focusing on wearable medical devices and AI technology Key Points and Arguments AI Technology Impact - AI technology has significantly improved operational efficiency and reduced labor costs within Yuyue Medical's operations [3][5] - The company is developing AI-based wearable medical devices, including rings, watches, and bracelets, expected to launch in the second half of this year, aiming for non-invasive detection [3][5] - Yuyue Medical has created a customized AI product called UL Agent, which will enhance the connectivity of its products, targeting a 30% IoT connection rate this year and 50% next year [3][6] Product Development and Market Strategy - The company is focusing on the medical field, holding FDA and CFDA certifications, which is a core competitive advantage [3][11] - Yuyue Medical's CGM (Continuous Glucose Monitoring) business aims to double or triple its revenue this year, targeting close to 500 million yuan [3][20] - The company has seen significant growth in Southeast Asia, with Thailand growing by 40% and Indonesia by 30% last year [3][32] Future Directions - Yuyue Medical plans to shift from hardware-driven to software-driven development, expanding the application of UL Agent to a broader health audience [3][8] - The company is also working on new CGM software and respiratory device software, with plans to launch in September or October [3][19] Market Position and Competition - Yuyue Medical differentiates itself from larger companies like Huawei by focusing solely on medical wearable devices, rather than consumer electronics [3][11][12] - The company is not overly concerned about competition from larger firms, emphasizing collaboration over competition [3][35][36] International Expansion - Yuyue Medical has been expanding internationally for a year and a half, focusing on local talent acquisition in Southeast Asia and Europe [3][32] - The company expects to see significant growth in overseas markets, with last year's growth exceeding 30% [3][33] Regulatory and Compliance - The company is actively involved in data standardization for home medical devices and is working on compliance with international data protection regulations [3][27][24] Financial Outlook - The company anticipates that investments in AI wearable devices will initially increase costs but ultimately enhance efficiency and profit margins [3][25] User Engagement - Yuyue Medical currently has 18,000 to 19,000 daily active users for its customer data management system, with a goal to exceed 50,000 this year [3][23] Government Support - The company is expanding its provincial presence to qualify for more government subsidies, having established several new provincial branches this year [3][28] Additional Important Information - Yuyue Medical is developing a new respiratory device that is progressing through the FDA registration process, with expectations to receive certification this year [3][29] - The company is focused on providing personalized health management services through data analysis from its IoT devices, leveraging user data for disease modeling [3][21]

全球视野下的资产配置（上）——申万宏源·2025 资本市场 春季策略会 20250312 摘要 Q&A 申万研究所对 2025 年全球宏观经济环境的主要看法是什么？ 申万研究所认为，2025 年的全球宏观经济环境将受到特朗普贸易政策和美元汇 率波动的显著影响。自特朗普上任以来，其贸易战和关税政策一直是市场关注 的焦点，尽管阶段性地有所松动，但整体策略并未改变。市场目前对后续贸易 战持观望态度，同时也存在一定程度的忽视心理。 • 特朗普经济政策，包括贸易战和关税措施，导致美股波动和美国经济滞胀。 市场虽选择性忽视负面因素，但仍显衰退交易特征，特朗普 2.0 时期的政 策将持续影响市场。 • 美国经济结构性分化明显：花旗经济意外指数低于预期，十年期美债收益 率下降；但非农就业数据强劲，CPI 同比增速反弹，通胀粘性犹存。 • 预计 2025 年美国将延续去通胀趋势，核心服务通胀将下降，但原油价格和 特朗普关税可能带来扰动。劳动力市场松弛程度是影响消费支出的关键因 素。 • 判断经济衰退的重要指标是失业率，其滞后性使其在确定经济是否进入衰 退拐点时具有重要作用，失业率上升通常伴随外生冲击。 • 美国制造业 PMI ...

AI+手术机器人专家交流 20250312 摘要 Q&A 目前 AI 在手术机器人领域的应用主要集中在哪些方面？现状如何？ 在手术机器人领域，AI 的应用主要集中在两个赛道：骨科机器人和腔镜机器人。 对于骨科机器人来说，AI 主要用于图像识别和导航。传统的图像重建算法在速 度和效率上存在问题，但通过引入 AI，这些问题得到了改善。然而，骨科机器 人的操作模式仍然是人机协作，主动权更多地掌握在人类医生手中，因此 AI 在 自主控制方面尚未取得重大进展。 腔镜机器人方面，一些领先的公司已经开始 • AI 技术通过自动化图像处理等环节，显著提高了骨科机器人领域的售后效 率，并优化了腔镜机器人的整体操作效率，从而提升了企业的人效和利润 率。 • 手术机器人通过标准化部分手术步骤，如冯皮手术的部分环节，提高了人 效。尽管关键步骤仍需医生操作，但机器人自主完成部分工作类似于自动 驾驶的自动泊车功能，解决了人效和应用问题。 • AI 技术在手术机器人收费方面，可能以额外销售包的形式出现，尤其是在 腔镜机器人领域，类似于 FSD 的单独收费包。但由于相关功能尚未大规模 推出，且缺乏明确的政策指导，短期内增加额外收入的可能性较 ...

万辰集团 20250312 摘要 Q&A 近期浙商证券对食品饮料行业的投资策略进行了哪些调整？ 浙商证券近期对食品饮料行业的投资策略进行了调整，主要基于以下三点：首 先，零售变革大年下的食品零收益股被认为是今年非常有机会的赛道。2025 年 零售变革不仅包括品质超市如山姆、盒马 NB 电型，还涵盖了折扣超市和线上渠 道的变化，如抖音、美团、饿了么和京东在集市零售上的参与。其次，成本周 期也是一个重要主线，特别是以乳制品为代表的原奶周期变化，例如 UM 牧业和 你们为什么推荐万成集团作为重点投资标的？ 万成集团被推荐为重点投资标的是基于几个方面：首先，公司在 2025 年的利润 预计达到 6 亿多元，而 2026 年预计将达到 10 亿元。在董事长留置事件导致股 价大跌后，这样一个基本面良好的公司提供了很好的上车机会。其次，万成集 团作为硬折扣领域中的纯粹标的，在量贩零食市场具有规模优势、先发优势和 管理优势。此外，公司在费用投放情况下实现了业绩超预期增长，并且少数股 东权益回收节奏也较好。 零食赛道与白酒赛道有哪些不同之处？ 零食赛道与白酒赛道存在显著不同。白酒行业中，上游品牌商占据强大的话语 权，下游渠道在 ...

申万宏源王牌｜固收"申"音：深度解读 20250312 摘要 Q&A 2024 年以来，债券市场的主要矛盾逐渐转向了机构行为。这一变化促使我们开 展了对理财机构买债行为的研究，并计划继续覆盖银行、保险等一系列机构， 以提供投资参考。 理财产品与公募固收基金在税收和运作模式上有哪些差异？ 理财产品与公募固收基金在税收和运作模式上存在显著差异。首先，在税收方 面，理财产品存在劣势。理财产品的资本利得需缴纳增值税（约 3%）和所得税 • 银行理财产品在税收上处于劣势，需缴纳增值税和所得税，而公募固收基 金税收负担较轻。运作模式上，银行理财投资限制较少，可投资非标资产， 配置更为分散。 • 截至 2024 年四季度，银行理财产品规模达 32 万亿元，主要集中于固收类、 现金管理类及固收加类，且以短期限产品为主，如每日开放型和 1-3 个月 期限产品。 • 银行理财规模呈现明显的季节性规律，通常季末规模下降，季初规模回升， 这主要受客户经理引导资金转移和理财产品到期日设置在季末的影响。 • 短期限固定收益类理财产品增速显著，对整体理财规模增长贡献大，反映 了居民对保本和低波动产品的偏好，每日开放型净值法计价方式逐渐取代 ...

7 March 2025 | 9:57AM HKT China Software: CAD/ BIM: Core products upgrade and cost control in 2025; Glodon/ ZWSOFT/ YJK 4Q remained weak We review 4Q24 performance for China CAD/ BIM software (Glodon/ ZWSOFT/ YJK) and see soft client IT spending continuing to affect 4Q24 results: revenue growth at -9% to +3% YoY in 4Q24, and weak profitability due to muted top-line growth and one-off expenses from headcount reduction and impairment loss. Looking into 2025, we expect CAD/ BIM suppliers to focus on core produ ...

Summary of China Solar Industry Conference Call (7 March 2025) Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **China Solar Industry**, highlighting recent trends in polysilicon, module prices, and solar glass prices, as well as upcoming regulatory changes impacting supply dynamics. Key Points Polysilicon Market - **Polysilicon Prices**: Mono-grade polysilicon prices increased by **2.6% week-over-week (WoW)** to **Rmb40/kg** as of the week starting 3 March [2] - **Production Forecast**: Polysilicon production is expected to rise by **5% month-over-month (MoM)** to approximately **97,000 tons (around 42GW)** in March, driven by a rebound in module demand [2] - **Inventory Levels**: Current polysilicon inventory stands at **271,000 tons**, equivalent to about **2.7 months** of supply, with expectations for inventory reduction due to disciplined supply management [2] Module Prices and Production - **Module Prices**: For the week starting 3 March, module prices increased by **0.7% WoW** to **Rmb0.70/W** for Topcon modules, while HJT module prices remained stable at **Rmb0.85/W** [3] - **Production Growth**: March module production is forecasted to grow by **24% MoM** to **52GW**, primarily due to a rush in installations before a new tariff policy takes effect on **1 June** [3] Solar Glass Market - **Price Increase**: Solar glass prices rose by **14.6% for 2.0mm** and **15.6% for 3.2mm**, reaching **Rmb13.75/sqm** and **Rmb22.25/sqm**, respectively [4] - **Inventory Reduction**: Inventory levels for solar glass decreased by **6.5% WoW** to an average of **31.63 days** [4] - **Production Resumption**: An estimated **4,000 tons per day** of solar glass capacity is expected to resume production in March, in addition to **2,000 tons** in February [4] Regulatory Developments - **NDRC Policies**: The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) plans to introduce industry-specific supply control policies aimed at resolving structural issues in key industries, including solar [5] - **Impact on Supply and Demand**: These policies are anticipated to enhance visibility on upcoming measures to alleviate oversupply pressures in the solar industry, potentially leading to improved supply-demand dynamics [5] Risks and Opportunities - **Downside Risks**: Major risks include slower-than-expected growth in domestic renewable energy capacity, larger-than-expected tariff cuts, and competition from alternative power sources [21] - **Upside Risks**: Potential for faster-than-expected growth in renewable energy capacity, smaller-than-expected tariff cuts, and increased market share for solar energy compared to other resources [22] Conclusion - The China solar industry is experiencing a rebound in prices and production, driven by increasing demand and upcoming regulatory changes. The market is poised for growth, but stakeholders should remain vigilant regarding potential risks and policy impacts.