新华财经纽约1月16日电 由于市场担忧美联储新任主席带来的货币政策走向影响和围绕格陵兰岛可能出 现的贸易紧张，纽约股市三大股指16日高开低走，收盘全面下跌。 截至当天收盘，道琼斯工业平均指数比前一交易日下跌83.11点，收于49359.33点，跌幅为0.17%；标准 普尔500种股票指数下跌4.46点，收于6940.01点，跌幅为0.06%；纳斯达克综合指数下跌14.634点，收于 23515.388点，跌幅为0.06%。 美国总统特朗普16日表示，他可能会对那些不支持美国获得格陵兰岛计划的国家加征关税。 特朗普还表示，自己实际上想让白宫国家经济委员会（National Economic Council）主任凯文·哈西特 （Kevin Hassett）留在现有岗位上。市场分析人士认为，这一消息让美联储前理事凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）成为下任美联储主席的最主要竞争者，沃什的鸽派程度将低于哈西特。 美联储负责监管的副主席米歇尔·鲍曼（Michelle Bowman）当日则表示，美联储应该基于"有根据"的预 测，而非很多同僚支持的单纯依赖数据，进而采取前瞻性的货币政策。 鲍曼说，除非劳动力市场条件出现清晰 ...

华侨银行：新加坡2026年非石油出口增速或放缓至3% 花旗：上调马来西亚2026年GDP预测至4.3%，AI驱动出口成关键支撑 联博基金：全球"去美元化"趋势深化，建议增配新兴市场资产 【机构分析】 ·巴克莱经济学家指出，鉴于马来西亚经济展现出超预期的韧性，该国央行可能在今年5月加息25个基 点，将政策利率上调至3.0%。尽管3月前缺乏完整的2026年GDP预测数据，央行或倾向观望，但考虑到 其历史上采取预防性紧缩的倾向，不排除提前在3月启动加息。预计1月货币政策会议将维持利率不变， 但政策基调或转向偏紧缩，释放未来收紧信号。 ·花旗银行在最新报告中将马来西亚2026年经济增长预测从4.2%小幅上调至4.3%，理由是人工智能 （AI）驱动的强劲全球需求正持续推动该国电气和电子产品出口扩张，为整体经济提供有力支撑。 ·华侨银行经济学家指出，尽管新加坡2025年非石油国内出口实现4.8%的增长，但受外部环境趋弱及全 球货币政策宽松空间收窄影响，2026年出口增幅预计将明显回落至1%–3%区间。地缘政治与美联储独 立性风险暂未冲击市场情绪。当前宏观环境相对温和，尽管存在委内瑞拉、伊朗、格陵兰等地缘政治紧 张以及对美 ...

新华财经香港1月16日电（记者林迎楠）香港特区政府财政司司长陈茂波16日出席香港特区立法会财务 委员会特别会议时表示，对2026年香港发展持审慎乐观态度。除稳步推进经济发展外，要积极对接国 家"十五五"规划。 陈茂波指出，在地缘政治外围风险加剧的情况下，资本市场难免会出现大幅波动。"我们必须要审慎， 一方面要大力发展，同时也要统筹安全方面的工作，尤其是金融安全，防范'黑天鹅'或'灰犀牛'事件的 出现，确保金融稳定。" 对于乐观的原因，陈茂波表示，过去几个月经济发展的势头不错。同时，内地的政策空间非常充裕，经 济稳步增长，"这是香港经济增长的最大后盾，也为我们带来经济增长的动力。" 此外，陈茂波提到，市场预期2026年美国会减息。虽然减息次数未必多，但总体来说金融市场会变得较 为宽松，会有利于营商，也会有利于金融市场的发展。 "2026年其中一个重点，除了稳步推进经济发展外，就是对接国家的'十五五'规划。"陈茂波强调，香港 必须要更好融入和服务国家发展大局。 陈茂波举例说，"十五五"规划将继续鼓励高水平双向开放，有更多内地企业会出海，在全球布局其产业 链和供应链。"我们可以邀请他们在香港成立公司，与香港的专业服 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market in 2026 is expected to exhibit structural characteristics driven by leading companies and fundamentals, focusing on opportunities in cycles, technology, and pharmaceuticals, as well as the theme of companies going global [1][3]. Fundamental Drivers - The current global economic landscape is undergoing significant adjustments, with a focus on high-quality development in the domestic economy. The selection of stocks should meet four core criteria: potential returns, competitive barriers, short-term demand changes leading to growth, and significant long-term growth potential [2][3]. Market Outlook - The A-share market is anticipated to show a pronounced concentration of leading companies and fundamental-driven characteristics. This will manifest in three dimensions: a highly structured market favoring a few companies with real and sustainable performance; leading companies with strong barriers and growth; and a focus on fundamentals where market pricing will closely align with companies' growth capabilities over the next one to two years [3]. Opportunities in Segmented Fields - The investment team is exploring opportunities in segmented fields, particularly in cycles, technology, and pharmaceuticals. The focus on cycles is driven by the bottoming out of corporate capacity and policies promoting absolute capacity clearance, with demand supported by various factors including potential interest rate cuts overseas and strong infrastructure needs in emerging markets [4][6]. Specific Focus Areas - In the cyclical sector, four key areas are highlighted: non-ferrous metals, aluminum, lithium carbonate driven by energy storage, and chemical products with improving supply-demand dynamics. The technology sector remains a primary focus, with strong investment interest and clear demand signals emerging [6][7]. Pharmaceutical Sector Insights - The pharmaceutical industry is centered on innovation and global expansion, with significant potential in the innovative drug sector, particularly in dual-antibody and small nucleic acid therapies. The medical device sector is also gaining attention, especially in surgical robotics and AI applications in healthcare [7][8]. Global Expansion Strategy - The theme of "going global" is emphasized, focusing on companies capable of moving into high-value sectors and possessing brand strength and global competitiveness. Key selection criteria include capacity for overseas production, technological and brand capabilities, and cultural outreach [8][9]. Performance of Companies with Global Revenue - Companies with a higher proportion of overseas revenue tend to show greater resilience and growth potential. As the global manufacturing sector may enter a replenishment cycle, Chinese manufacturing firms with global competitive advantages are expected to expand their market share through international ventures [9].

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, China's monetary policy is expected to be moderately accommodative, supporting economic recovery with significant growth in credit and social financing, indicating a positive trend for the economy [1][7]. Group 1: Credit and Financing Growth - In 2025, new RMB loans are projected to reach 16.27 trillion yuan, with a total social financing increment of 35.6 trillion yuan, which is an increase of 3.34 trillion yuan compared to the previous year [1][3]. - By the end of 2025, the total social financing stock is expected to grow by 8.3% year-on-year, while the broad money supply (M2) is anticipated to increase by 8.5%, both significantly exceeding nominal GDP growth rates [1][6]. - In December 2025, RMB loans increased by 910 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decrease of 80 billion yuan but a month-on-month increase of 520 billion yuan, indicating a stronger demand from enterprises compared to households [2][3]. Group 2: Structural Optimization - The structure of financing is improving, with non-loan financing methods contributing significantly to the total social financing increment, surpassing 50% of the total, reflecting the effectiveness of financial supply-side structural reforms [3][5]. - By the end of 2025, the balance of medium- and long-term loans in the manufacturing sector is expected to grow by 6.6%, while infrastructure loans are projected to increase by 6.9%, and services (excluding real estate) by 9.4% [4][5]. Group 3: Interest Rates and Costs - The average interest rates for newly issued corporate loans and personal housing loans are approximately 3.1%, showing a decline of 2.5 and 2.6 percentage points since the second half of 2018 [5][6]. - The financing costs are decreasing, with the new loan rates for technology and digital economy sectors being 2.81% and 2.7%, respectively, both lower than the previous year [5][6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - For 2026, it is anticipated that more proactive macroeconomic policies will continue to enhance counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments, with expected new credit of about 18 trillion yuan and social financing increment reaching 38 trillion yuan [7].

（文章来源：新华财经） 《通知》共十三条，主要内容包括：一是明确概念定义及管理边界，重点规范境内金融机构向境内非金 融机构发放的以外币计价结算的贷款。二是进一步完善账户管理，明确国内外汇贷款的账户管理原则及 收支范围。三是进一步简化结、购汇管理，遵循实需、便利原则，如借款人确实无法按期收汇且无其他 外汇资金，可凭相关真实性证明材料直接到银行办理购汇偿还国内外汇贷款，由购汇经办银行进行真实 性、合规性审核。四是进一步明确国内外汇贷款资金用途管理。五是进一步明确贷款人数据报送要求， 强化事中事后监管。六是对于实际操作中可能出现的境内机构之间涉及外币的其他类型债权债务，如境 内融资租赁业务的外币计价结算、外汇质押人民币贷款业务，进一步明确相关管理原则。 新华财经北京1月16日电为进一步支持国内外汇贷款业务发展，促进贸易投融资便利化，提升服务实体 经济质效，国家外汇管理局起草了《国家外汇管理局关于进一步完善国内外汇贷款外汇管理有关事项的 通知（征求意见稿）》（以下简称《通知》），现向社会公开征求意见。 ...

新华财经北京1月16日电据CNBC报道，美国白宫国家经济委员会主任哈西特周五淡化针对美联储主席 杰罗姆·鲍威尔的联邦刑事调查，称他预计"不会有什么问题"。哈西特在接受采访时表示，美联储的调 查只是一个简单的信息请求，相关信息很快就会提供，之后调查将继续进行。他同时表示，希望在美联 储总部装修成本超支问题上能有更多透明度，这也是司法部调查的焦点。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with five other departments, has issued the "Interim Measures for the Management of Recycling and Comprehensive Utilization of Waste Power Batteries for New Energy Vehicles," focusing on battery information traceability, recycling, comprehensive utilization, supervision, and legal responsibilities [1] Group 1: Management Framework - The management measures emphasize "full-channel, full-chain, and full-lifecycle" management principles to address the challenges posed by the complex recycling chain of waste power batteries [2] - The measures include a "vehicle-battery integrated scrapping" system, mandating that scrapped new energy vehicles must include their power batteries [2] Group 2: Information Traceability - The management measures propose the establishment of a national traceability information platform for new energy vehicle power batteries, introducing a digital identity management system for these batteries [3][4] - The digital identity will encompass essential information such as product categories, composition, and recycling details, enhancing data connectivity across all stages from production to recycling [4][6] Group 3: Responsibilities and Penalties - The management measures assign extended responsibilities to power battery and new energy vehicle manufacturers for product ecological design and recycling [7] - Specific penalties for non-compliance, such as failing to deliver waste batteries as required, have been established, including orders for correction, warnings, and fines [7][8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that China Southern Airlines (CZ) is enhancing its flight services in Guizhou to meet the travel demand during the upcoming Spring Festival by adding new direct flights and increasing the frequency of popular routes [2][3] Group 2 - A new direct flight route from Guiyang to Shenyang will commence on February 2, with daily departures at 09:30 from Guiyang and arrivals at 13:05 in Shenyang, significantly reducing travel time between Northeast and Southwest regions [2] - The airline will also increase the frequency of several busy routes, including the Guiyang-Urumqi route, which will have daily flights starting February 2, and the Guiyang-Yiwu route, with daily flights also starting February 2 [2] - From January 27, the Guiyang-Hangzhou route will see an increase in frequency, with daily flights scheduled [2][3] - After these adjustments, there will be three daily flights from Guiyang to both Hangzhou and Urumqi, and two daily flights to Shenyang and Yiwu [3] - The airline is utilizing big data analysis to dynamically adjust flight plans based on passenger flow, prioritizing transportation for workers, students, and family visits during the Spring Festival [3] - Currently, China Southern Airlines operates routes from Guiyang to 28 cities nationwide, establishing a comprehensive air network that connects the east and west, as well as the north and south [3]

Core Insights - The latest selection of "Lighthouse Factories" by the World Economic Forum highlights the strong capabilities of China's manufacturing sector in digital and intelligent transformation, with 16 out of 23 selected companies being from China, representing over 60% of the total [1] Group 1: Lighthouse Factory Selection - The "Lighthouse Factory" initiative, launched by the World Economic Forum and McKinsey in 2018, recognizes top smart manufacturing capabilities [2] - From September 2025, the evaluation will include five new categories: customer-centricity, production efficiency, supply chain resilience, sustainability, and talent [2] - The 16 Chinese companies span all five categories, with the largest group being "Production Efficiency Lighthouse Factories," which includes nine companies such as EVE Energy and Michelin [2] Group 2: Regional Performance - The Yangtze River Delta region stands out with seven selected companies, including Faurecia and Midea, marking significant achievements in the textile and automotive seating sectors [3] - Jiangsu Yueda Textile became the first "Lighthouse Factory" in the global cotton spinning industry, while Faurecia achieved the same in the automotive seating sector [3] Group 3: Industry Trends - The selected companies have made significant advancements in enhancing supply chain and operational resilience, integrating AI into core production operations, and expanding digital transformation across their networks [4] - The shift from exploring technological possibilities to institutionalizing successful practices indicates a growing emphasis on resilience and sustainability in industry operations [3][4]