过去一周，随着全球长债纷纷大跌，许多投资者开始思考的一个大问题是：当债券市场最终崩溃时，美 联储和其他央行会怎么做？ 对此，号称"华尔街最精准分析师"的美国银行首席策略师哈特内特（Michael Hartnett）在其最新的资金 流动报告《从无形之手到有形之拳》中，就提到了这一现象。哈特内特指出，目前英国长期债券收益率 已到了5.6%（自1998年以来最高），法国为4.4%（自2009年以来最高），日本为3.2%（自1999年以来 最高），同时美国30年期债券收益率一度向上测试了5%。 哈特内特认为，这很可能是因为股市投资者已提前消化了央行会进行PKO（价格稳定操作），或其他防 止债务成本无序飙升的政策。对股市多头而言，这些政策其实都极为熟悉：收益率曲线控制 （YCC）、量化宽松（QE）、扭转操作（OT）。 哈特内特因此建议客户做多黄金，以应对收益率曲线控制政策，并预期收益率下降（价格稳定操作+美 联储可信降息），将通过债券敏感板块（生物科技、房地产投资信托基金、小盘股）推动股市普涨。 哈特尼特全力押注YCC政策将会出台，还有另一个原因——在他看来，当前"最大的宏观图景"与尼克松 70-74时期最为相似：如同 ...

日本5年期与30年期国债收益率之间的利差正在攀升至本世纪以来未曾见过的罕见区间。这一陡峭化趋 势正在获得新的动能，因为在日本国内持续政治动荡之际，日本国债交易员预计日本央行将在年底前维 持利率不变。 目前，日本5s30s利差超过200个基点，在G-10国家中属于极度陡峭的水平。由于政治因素阻碍到日本央 行抑制通胀的行动，这一利差短期内不太可能趋于平缓。 责任编辑：山上 推动这一走势的关键因素是，在日本央行采取观望态度之际，粘性通胀可能维持更长时间，尤其是在工 资预计进一步上涨的背景下。 ...

特朗普原籍纽约，上一次出席美网还是在2015年，当时他尚未担任总统，仍是总统候选人，观看了塞雷 娜・威廉姆斯与维纳斯・威廉姆斯姐妹参加的女单四分之一决赛。 当地时间周日，美国网球公开赛（简称"美网"）男单决赛因需为美国总统特朗普的到访安排安保工作， 推迟约30分钟开赛。特朗普抵达位于纽约皇后区的比赛现场时，现场观众的反应两极，既有嘘声也有欢 呼声。 责任编辑：山上 这场决赛在意大利选手扬尼克・辛纳与西班牙选手卡洛斯・阿尔卡拉斯之间展开，二人被广泛认为是当 今世界男子网坛的顶尖选手。这也是今年两人第三次在大满贯决赛中对决。 据报道，特朗普此次是以瑞士名表品牌劳力士嘉宾的身份出席赛事，现场照片显示他与劳力士首席执行 官让-弗雷德里克・杜福尔（Jean-Frederic Dufour）并肩而立——而就在几周前，特朗普政府刚对瑞士产 品征收了39%的关税。 在演奏美国国歌期间，阿瑟・阿什球场的巨型电子屏短暂播放了特朗普的画面——该球场所在的皇后区 正是特朗普的家乡。 陪同特朗普出席的人员包括其女婿贾里德・库什纳、孙女阿拉贝拉、白宫办公厅主任苏西・威尔斯、白 宫新闻秘书卡罗琳・莱维特、美国司法部长帕姆・邦迪以及财政部长 ...

汇丰全球外汇研究主管保罗·麦凯尔最新研判显示，随着美联储降息周期临近叠加货币政策政治化疑 虑，美元可能面临新一轮贬值压力。他指出，逊于预期的非农就业数据意味着美国就业市场正从温和降 温转向实质性恶化，这可能迫使美联储加快降息步伐。 责任编辑：山上 值得注意的是，全球政经格局的动荡为美元提供托底支撑。麦凯尔特别提及日本首相石破茂闪电辞职引 发的政策真空期，以及法国总理巴育政府濒临倒阁可能触发提前大选等风险事件，认为这两大经济体的 政治不确定性将部分抵消美元贬值动能。 ...

Group 1 - The anticipated interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is expected to provide relief to Asian economies still grappling with the impacts of the Trump administration's tariff policies [1] - The Federal Reserve is projected to lower rates in September, following significant slowdowns in U.S. non-farm employment growth and an increase in the unemployment rate to its highest level since 2021 [1] - ADB's Chief Economist Albert Park noted that the rate cut would improve financial conditions in the region, offering some breathing room for loan repayments [1] Group 2 - Park highlighted the fragile fiscal outlook for Laos and the Maldives, with high debt levels and rising interest rates on dollar-denominated loans [1] - Overall, other Asian economies are managing pragmatically, with a generally positive macroeconomic outlook [1] - ADB will release updated economic growth forecasts for Asia later this month, with expectations that the outlook will be similar to the revised figures from July [1] Group 3 - According to ADB, U.S. import tariffs on Asia are at historically high levels, averaging 27.8%, compared to the U.S. average tariff rate of 18.6% [2] - Tariffs on imports from China and India are particularly high, while most other Asian countries face tariffs between 15% and 20% [2] - Park indicated that the similar tax rates across many countries may prevent large-scale manufacturing shifts, which could stabilize export markets, although rising commodity prices may ultimately reduce demand [2]

Core Insights - The UK long-term government bond yields have reached their highest levels in decades, raising concerns about the country's fiscal sustainability [1][2] - The UK is seen as a potential precursor to risks faced by other high-debt countries globally, particularly due to its unique vulnerabilities [1][2] Economic Context - Since 2007, the government debt-to-GDP ratio in advanced economies has doubled to approximately 80%, with global public debt expected to approach 100% of the global economy by the end of this decade [1] - Global government debt interest payments increased by 11.2% over the past year, reaching $2.72 trillion [1] UK Specifics - The UK 30-year bond yield has surpassed that of more heavily indebted countries like France, while the 10-year yield is the highest among G7 nations, exceeding that of the US [2] - The UK government's debt interest payments are projected to reach £111.2 billion (approximately $150 billion) next year, which is double the defense spending [2] - The debt-to-GDP ratio in the UK could reach 270% by the early 2070s due to rising healthcare and pension costs driven by an aging population [2] Market Implications - The combination of high debt levels and rising yields makes the UK vulnerable to potential crises, with any market turmoil possibly triggering further yield increases [2] - The independence of the Bank of England suggests that direct government bailouts are unlikely, positioning the UK as a potential first developed economy to face significant debt risks [2] Political Landscape - The new Labour government has pledged fiscal responsibility, but attempts to cut welfare spending have faced significant opposition [2][3] - The upcoming autumn budget will require a delicate balance between increasing taxes to cover deficits and not stifling fragile economic growth [3] Broader Implications - Analysts suggest that the UK's fiscal challenges may serve as a warning for other high-debt nations, indicating potential future financial storms [3]

Market Overview - On September 8, A-shares experienced a morning dip followed by a slight rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing up 0.38% at 3826.84 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.61% at 12666.84 points. The ChiNext Index fell 0.84% to 2933.25 points, while the STAR Market 50 Index rose 0.58% to 1275.87 points. The North Exchange 50 Index surged 1.78%, reaching a historical high [1] Sector Performance - The PEEK materials sector saw significant gains, with stocks like Xinhan New Materials and Tianci Materials hitting the daily limit [1] - The humanoid robot sector strengthened following Tesla's demonstration of its humanoid robot "Optimus 3," with stocks such as Sanhua Intelligent Control and Zhaomin Technology also reaching the daily limit [1][2] - The medical device sector rose, with Ao Jing Medical nearing the daily limit [1] - The pork concept stocks collectively increased, with Aonong Biological and Tianyu Biological hitting the daily limit. CICC noted a new paradigm in China's pig industry, indicating a shift in investment logic [1][3] - The shipping sector performed well, particularly in oil transportation, with China Merchants Energy hitting the daily limit. Clarkson data indicated a 38% week-on-week increase in VLCC freight rates [1][4] - The solid-state battery sector continued its strong performance, with stocks like Xiamen Tungsten and Tianci Materials reaching the daily limit. CITIC Securities highlighted the growing market interest in solid-state batteries due to their advantages [1][5] Institutional Insights - Huaxi Securities suggested that the recent short-term adjustments in the A-share market could lead to a more stable and sustainable market trend [6] - CITIC Securities indicated that the current market is in a "slow bull" phase, with a mild correction expected, and emphasized the importance of focusing on sectors with strong growth potential [7] -招商证券 noted that the short-term market adjustment is nearing its end, predicting a transition to a more sustainable upward trend [7]

Group 1 - Hisense won 9 innovation awards at the IFA 2025, showcasing its strong product and technological innovation capabilities [1][3] - The theme "AI Your Life" highlighted the deep application of AI technology in display innovation, smart home integration, and energy management [1] - Hisense's laser TV and RGB-Mini LED TV received top honors in the home entertainment category, emphasizing their immersive viewing experiences [3] Group 2 - Hisense previously secured 6 prestigious awards from the EISA for the 2025-2026 period, covering various categories including TVs and audio systems [5] - The company has accelerated its AI technology deployment and application in 2025, aiming to enhance consumer experiences and improve quality of life [5]

Core Insights - Germany's exports to the US significantly declined in July, marking the fourth consecutive month of decrease and reaching the lowest level since December 2021 [1] - Overall exports from Germany decreased by 0.6% in July, although exports to other EU countries saw a slight increase [1] - Industrial output in Germany showed a positive trend, with a month-on-month increase of 1.3% in July [1] Export Data - Exports to the US fell by 7.9% month-on-month, amounting to €11.1 billion (approximately $13.01 billion) [1] - Year-on-year, exports to the US decreased by 14.1% [1] - The EU agreed to impose a 15% tariff on goods exported to the US, which may impact future export dynamics [1] Industrial Output - The industrial output in Germany rebounded with a 1.3% increase month-on-month in July [1]

9月8日午后，卫星导航板块拉升，截至发稿，中国联通涨近5%，中国卫星拉升触及涨停。另外，国光 电气、创远信科涨超15%，超捷股份、航天宏图、华力创通、星图测控等跟涨。 | 代码 | 名称 | 涨幅%√ | 现价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 688776 | 国光电气 | +16.83% | 87.48 | | 831961 | 创远信科 | +15.50% | 29.95 | | 002115 | 三维通信 | +10.05% | 12.16 | | 688418 | 震有科技 | +10.04% | 32.65 | | 002516 | 旷达科技 | +10.00% | 6.27 | | 600118 | 中国卫星 | +9.99% | 36.21 | | 603131 | 上海沪工 | +9.99% | 21.58 | | 688066 | 航天宏图 | +8.88% | 39.50 | | 300045 | 华力创通 | +7.55% | 24.80 | | 920116 | 星图测控 | +7.03% | 76.10 | | 301005 | 超捷股份 | +7.02% ...