Market Overview - The market experienced four consecutive days of gains before a slight pullback, closing with a doji candlestick pattern. Major indices like the Shanghai Composite, Shenzhen Component, Sci-Tech Innovation Board, and ChiNext saw minor increases, while others like the North China 50 and CSI 1000 faced slight adjustments. Overall, the market trend favored large-cap stocks. Investor enthusiasm has decreased as year-end approaches, leading to a general trend of reduced trading volume and consolidation in the market. It is expected that this consolidation pattern will persist for the next few weeks [1]. Future Outlook - December's uncertainty events are largely resolved, setting the stage for the spring market in the coming year. Key events include the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, inflation and employment data releases, and the Bank of Japan's latest rate decision. Current indications from Fed and BOJ officials lean towards a neutral to dovish stance, alleviating some of the liquidity constraints that have hindered A-share market growth. After a prolonged period of sideways movement since October, conditions are now favorable for upward expansion. A recovery in the supply-demand dynamics of the mid-to-lower manufacturing sectors is likely in 2026, which could lead to a significant rebound in the earnings growth of A-share listed companies. The current consolidation phase is seen as an ideal preparation for the upcoming spring market [1]. Sector Focus - In December, sectors benefiting from dividends and price increases are expected to outperform, with short-term attention on banking, public utilities, coal, and non-ferrous metals. Consumer sectors may also gain traction due to event-driven factors. For 2026, technology remains a key focus, with particular attention on AI, lithium batteries, military industry, and robotics. Notable trends include: 1. The established trend in AI hardware, with a continuous increase in the token usage of major AI models, suggesting a peak in AI applications by 2026 [2]. 2. The ongoing domestic production and integration of robots into daily life, with product expansion from humanoid to quadruped and functional robots, creating opportunities in sensors, controllers, and dexterous hands [2]. 3. The trend towards semiconductor localization, focusing on semiconductor equipment, wafer manufacturing, materials, and IC design [2]. 4. The military sector is expected to see a continued recovery in orders, with many sub-sectors like ground equipment, aviation equipment, and military electronics showing signs of bottoming out [2]. 5. The innovative drug sector is anticipated to enter a growth phase after nearly four years of adjustment, with positive net profit growth since Q3 2024 and an expected turning point in 2025, continuing an upward trend into 2026 [2].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon of an early "return home" trend in the context of the upcoming holiday season, analyzing its implications for various sectors and the economy as a whole [2] Group 1: Economic Implications - The early return home trend may indicate a shift in consumer behavior, potentially impacting retail sales and service industries during the holiday season [2] - Increased travel activity could lead to a boost in transportation and hospitality sectors, benefiting airlines, hotels, and local businesses [2] Group 2: Industry Analysis - The article highlights that the early return home could result in a more concentrated peak in demand for certain industries, leading to supply chain challenges [2] - It suggests that companies in the logistics and supply chain sectors should prepare for potential disruptions due to the anticipated surge in demand [2] Group 3: Consumer Behavior - The trend may reflect changing consumer preferences, with more individuals prioritizing family time and local experiences over traditional travel patterns [2] - This shift could lead to a reallocation of spending, favoring local businesses and services rather than long-distance travel [2]

作者简介： 赵 伟， 经济学博士，申万宏源证券首席经济学家，上海申银万国证券研究所有限公司副总经 理，中国证券业协会首席经济学家委员会委员，中国首席经济学家论坛理事 侯倩楠 （通信作者），管理学博士，申万宏源研究所宏观分析师 屠 强， 申万宏源研究所资深高级宏观分析师 摘要 ： 本文立足纵深推进全国统一大市场背景，系统探讨眼下"内卷"现象的成因、影响与 政策应对。研究指出，本轮"内卷"核心表现为PPI长期负增长及中下游产能利用率偏低，挤压企 业盈利、阻碍产业升级。深层根源是经济转型期新旧动能分化，叠加地方政府为追求GDP和财 政收入的同质化无序竞争。破解困境的对策包括：供给侧通过产量调控、淘汰落后产能优化产业 结构，提升产品质量以修复价格、增强竞争力；需求侧大力发展居民服务消费，借财政补贴与社 保完善释放消费潜力，同时引导就业从制造业向服务业转移，实现供需结构适配。本文贡献在 于，系统论证"反内卷"政策与经济高质量发展的内在联系，为相关部门优化产业结构、激发市 场活力提供理论依据与实践方向。 本文来源《新金融》2025年第12期 全文内容 综合整治"内卷式"竞争： 背景、成因、影响及应对 一 引言 近年来，" ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Xidi Intelligent Driving Technology Co., Ltd. successfully completed its initial public offering (IPO) on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with a share price set at HKD 263.00 and a total issuance scale of HKD 1.42 billion [2] - Xidi Intelligent Driving is a supplier of intelligent driving products and solutions for commercial vehicles in China, focusing on autonomous trucks for mining and logistics in closed environments, as well as V2X technology and intelligent perception solutions [2] - The company ranks sixth among all intelligent driving commercial vehicle companies in China, holding a market share of approximately 5.2%, and has delivered the first fully autonomous electric mining truck fleet in China [2]

投资有风险，入市需谨慎。本内容不构成任何投资建议。投 资者不应以该等信息取代其独立判断或仅根据该等信息做出 决策。申万宏源对这些信息的准确性或完整性不作保证，亦 不对因使用该等信息而引发或可能引游艇操作器报告圆膏Gr 免责声明 田门宏源证券 星期三 12月 HEH IATAL 令日申. 0 今日中签缴 .. 2 今日上 今日无新股新债 ...

申万宏源宏观 国内高频 | 外贸高频边际回落（申万宏观·赵伟团队） 原创 阅读全文 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Shenwan Hongyuan Public Welfare Foundation achieved a 3A rating in its first participation in the municipal social organization evaluation, reflecting its strong governance, stable operations, and professional capabilities in financial philanthropy [2][3]. Group 1: Institutional Development - Since its establishment in 2022, the foundation has prioritized institutional development, creating over 30 management systems and 20 business processes to ensure a clear governance structure and operational efficiency [3]. - The foundation has aligned its governance and financial practices with the updated evaluation criteria for social organizations, ensuring compliance and completeness in its application materials [3]. Group 2: Financial Philanthropy Initiatives - The foundation focuses on applying financial expertise to address social needs, particularly in rural revitalization and education support, through innovative financial models like "insurance + futures" and "comprehensive anti-poverty insurance" [4]. - Various educational projects have been implemented to improve school conditions and resources, fostering collaboration between urban and rural schools, and enhancing students' learning experiences [4]. Group 3: Community Engagement and Support - The foundation actively engages its members in charitable activities, addressing the needs of disadvantaged families and students through initiatives like "Love Pairing" and "Charity Art Sales" [5]. - It has mobilized over 4,000 volunteers in three years, enriching the practical experience of financial professionals in community service [5]. Group 4: Future Development Goals - The 3A rating serves as a foundation for the foundation's future endeavors, aiming to enhance its governance and operational standards while focusing on key areas such as rural revitalization and education support [6]. - The foundation plans to innovate financial charity products and collaborative models, contributing to the establishment of a modern charity system in China [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the results of the "Third China Bond Valuation Cup - Fixed Income Quantitative Special" essay competition, emphasizing the importance of quantitative strategies in fixed income investment and risk management [1]. Group 1: Winning Essays - The first prize was awarded to the essay titled "Hedging Strategy for Government Bond Investment Portfolio Based on Synthetic Options," which introduces a practical hedging and pricing solution to improve the risk-return characteristics of government bond futures portfolios [2]. - The third prize was given to the essay "Empirical Research on Government Bond Futures Option Pricing Model and SABR Model of Volatility Surface," which supports investors in dissecting and recombining specific dimensions of risk [3][4]. Group 2: Quantitative Strategies - The fixed income foreign exchange commodity division has made significant progress in quantitative strategy research, algorithmic trading, automated market making, and the construction of quantitative analysis platforms, covering core products such as interest rate bonds, government bond futures, and interest rate swaps (IRS) [2]. - The division's quantitative strategies encompass high-frequency, medium-frequency, and low-frequency trading, gradually establishing a robust strategy system characterized by multiple products and low correlation [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The fixed income foreign exchange commodity division aims to continuously explore innovation in the quantitative and derivatives fields, building a comprehensive quantitative analysis and investment system to support high-quality development [5]. - The division emphasizes the integration of financial technology into investment research to promote the steady growth of FICC (Fixed Income, Currencies, and Commodities) business [5].

助力上海经济发展 2025 年 11 月 13 日，申万宏源作为联席主承销商，助力"上海国有资产经营有限 公司 2025 年面向专业投资者公开发行公司债券（第五期）"成功簿记发行，本期债 券发行规模 13 亿元，发行期限为 5 年，票面利率 1.90% 。 本内容最终解释权归申万宏源证券有限公司所有。 免责声明 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。本内容不构成任何投资建议。投 资者不应以该等信息取代其独立判断或仅根据该等信息做出 决策。申万宏源对这些信息的准确性或完整性不作保证，亦 不对因使用该等信息而引发或可能引游躲损豢秃拐չ-α葛磊 上海国资经营公司是上海国际集团系统战略性金融资产的重要持股公司，亦是公司长 期合作、深度服务的重要战略客户。 2025 年以来，公司助力上海国资经营公司先后 完成多期债券发行，并成功获批 160 亿元公司债券注册额度。本期债券为批文项下的 首期发行，发行准备期间，公司密切关注宏观经济形势与债市利率走向，协助上海国 资经营公司持续研判最优发行窗口，充分调动投资机构积极性。本期债券簿记当日获 得近 50 亿元的超高全场认购规模，充分体现了市场投资者对上海国资经营公司优质 主体的高度认可。 未 ...

12 月 17 日，由申万宏源 作为联席销售机构的 国泰海通 - 世博发展第 1 期绿 色资产支持专项计划 成功发行 。 发行 总 规模 16.51 亿元， 其中，优先级发行规 模 16.50 亿元， 评级 A AA ， 由上海世博发展（集团）有限公司提供差额支付、流 动性支持承诺， 票面利率 2. 1 % ， 次级发行规模 0.01 亿元，原始权益人上海世博 会运营有限公司自持 。 项目 发行期限 为 18 年（ 3 年 *6 ），每 3 年设置开放期 。 项目 入池 资产为 上海世博城市最佳实践区物业项目，位于上海黄浦区，区位优 异，依托上海世博会存量建筑和设施进行转型开发，运营情况良好。 原始权益人上海世博会运营有限公司是国内一流的园区运营管理综合集成服务 商。由原上海世博会事务协调局为投资、建设和运营中国馆而于 2008 年 9 月专门设 立，注册资金 28.6 亿元，是上海世博发展（集团） 有限公司的全资子公司。主营业 务包括物业管理服务、区域运营管理、信息服务、租赁服务、商业服务、广告经营、 会展活动、停车场管理等。 申万宏源助力上海经济发展 本资产证券化项目成功发行，不仅是践行绿色金融发展的重要 ...