Core Viewpoint - The market continues to consolidate with a focus on stability following the release of macroeconomic data by the National Bureau of Statistics for Q4 and the entire year, while geopolitical tensions abroad lead to volatility in capital markets [1] Market Performance - The A-share market shows strong performance in the precious metals sector, driven by rising risk aversion and increasing prices of precious metals [1] - Short-term market sentiment remains positive, with investors holding high expectations for the stock market in 2026, indicating a strong consolidation phase [1] Sector Highlights - Strong performances are noted in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, electronic components (CPO), and machinery equipment [1] - Significant trading volume increases in the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and CSI 300 ETFs suggest a shift and adjustment in asset allocation by some investment institutions, impacting the performance of related sectors like banking and coal [1] Market Outlook - The short-term market is expected to experience strong consolidation, while the medium-term trend is anticipated to stabilize and rise [1] - Attention is drawn to changes in overseas factors, as well as shifts in A-share trading volume and sector hotspots [1]

申万宏源宏观 深度专题 | 美国通胀风险有多大？——2026年美国通胀展望（申万宏观·赵伟团队） 原创 阅读全文 ...

申万宏源固收研究 【申万固收|利率】基本面延续偏弱，通胀回升是亮点——12月经济数据点评 原创 阅读全文 ...

1月15日，由新浪财经主办的"金麒麟·2026全球与中国资本市场展望论坛暨第二届金麒麟最佳 投资顾问荣誉盛典"在北京圆满落幕。 在本届金麒麟 最佳投资顾问 评选中，公司一举摘得 "最佳投资顾问服务机构"、"最佳ETF投 资服务机构"和"投资顾问服务十佳品牌" 三项大奖。在本届投顾专业能力的大赛比拼中，公司共 有 26名 优秀投顾最终脱颖而出，收获 39项 荣誉。 公司始终秉持"以客户为中心"的服务理念，通过持续优化投顾团队建设、提升专业能力，为投资者提供差异化、精细化的投资咨询服务。此次获奖，是对 公司财富管理品牌价值的肯定。未来，公司将继续引导投资者树立理性投资观念，助力客户财富实现长期稳健增值。 来源：申万宏源证券 ...

本周市场情绪高亢，遭遇政策调控，融资保证金比例上调，结合中国证监会2026年系统工作会议精神，向市场传递了精准信号。近期陆续有年 度业绩预告披露，未来市场可能持续关注业绩高增方向的投资机会。同时一季度海外映射催化相对较多，主题投资机会仍存。当前市场处于上涨 斜率加速且量能快速放大后的波动阶段，市场后续出现大落风险的概率较低，调整反而可能孕育机会，我们仍坚持优选长期趋势占优品种的建 议。 宏源证券 | ETF周度配置指南 ETH周度 配置指南 2026.01.16 (总02期) 本周市场情绪高亢,遭遇政策调控,融资保证金比例上调,结合中国证监会2026年系统工作会议 精神,向市场传递了精准信号。近期陆续有年度业绩预告披露,未来市场可能持续关注业绩高增 方向的投资机会。同时一季度海外映射催化相对较多,主题投资机会仍存。当前市场处于上涨斜 率加速且量能快速放大后的波动阶段，市场后续出现大落风险的概率较低，调整反而可能孕育机 会,我们仍坚持优选长期趋势占优品种的建议。 风险提示：本材料非产品宣传推介材料,不构成任何投资建议。投资者不应以该等信息取代其独立判断或仅根据该等信息做出决 策。申万宏源证券对本材料拥有最终解释 ...

● 免责声明 即可无限让竞 星期三 01月 u 今日中签缴... 令日下 今日申 ... 股 美德乐 920119 纽 41.88 发行/行业市盈率 14.99/47.63 申购上限 72万股 发行价(元) 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。本内容不构成任何投资建议。投 资者不应以该等信息取代其独立判断或仅根据该等信息做出 决策。申万宏源对这些信息的准确性或完整性不作保证，亦 不对因使用该等信息而引发或可能引游躲损豢秃拐չ-α葛磊 今日无新债 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is currently experiencing a mild adjustment phase after a period of continuous gains, with significant divergence in sector performance. The focus is shifting from event-driven themes to fundamentals, particularly in the technology growth sector, which remains the main driver of the spring market rally [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index entered a consolidation phase after a series of gains, with a total decline in over 3,100 stocks and a trading volume shrinking to 2.8 trillion [1]. - The divergence in sector performance is notable, with differences in gains and losses exceeding 5% between leading and lagging sectors [1]. - The current market adjustment is viewed as a healthy correction that could facilitate further development of the rally, emphasizing the importance of maintaining trading volume and sector rotation [1]. Group 2: Sector Focus - The technology and materials sectors are expected to dominate in January, with a focus on themes such as commercial aerospace, brain-computer interfaces, and low-altitude economy [2]. - The rise in raw material prices, driven by technological investment trends, presents opportunities in small metals, energy metals, and new chemical materials [2]. - High-dividend traditional sectors are also suggested for left-side attention, anticipating a rebound during the annual report season in March-April [2]. Group 3: Specific Opportunities - AI hardware is projected to experience significant growth, with the peak of AI applications expected in 2026, indicating a transition from quantity to quality in AI applications [2]. - The trend of robot localization and integration into daily life is anticipated to continue, with opportunities arising in sensors, controllers, and dexterous hands as the market evolves [2]. - The semiconductor industry is expected to see continued domestic growth, with a focus on semiconductor equipment, wafer manufacturing, materials, and IC design [2]. - The demand for new energy materials is rising due to rapid growth in domestic and overseas energy storage needs, with signs of supply shortages and price increases expected to persist through 2026 [2]. - The innovative drug sector is entering a recovery phase after four years of adjustment, with positive net profit growth expected to continue into 2026 [2].

申万宏源固收研究 【申万固收】2026，债市开年有没有预期差？——近期市场反馈及思考9 原创 阅读全文 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has experienced a period of adjustment following a recent continuous rise in indices, with notable corrections in the commercial aerospace sector and active performance in the AI application sector [6][7]. Market Overview - The commercial aerospace sector has shown signs of divergence and adjustment, with multiple companies issuing risk warnings regarding their business activities. This indicates a potential overheating in the sector, prompting calls for improved information disclosure and investor education to guide rational market development [7]. - The AI application sector has benefited from capital inflows as funds from the commercial aerospace sector have shifted towards it. Key concepts such as Generative Engine Optimization (GEO) and AI healthcare have gained traction, with GEO expected to reshape advertising marketing in the AI era, presenting a vast market opportunity [7]. - In the AI healthcare space, there have been significant developments, including increased traffic for Ant Group's AI health assistant and collaborations between OpenAI and major pharmaceutical companies to invest in AI drug research [7]. Policy Adjustments - On Wednesday, the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges announced an adjustment to the financing margin ratio, increasing the minimum margin for investors from 80% to 100%. This change follows a previous reduction in August 2023, aimed at promoting long-term market stability amid recent price increases [8]. Market Outlook - Following a peak trading volume of nearly 4 trillion yuan, the indices are expected to undergo slight adjustments to digest the gains made since December 2022. Future attention will be on the performance of resource and precious metal prices, as well as the impact of AI industry trends on hot topics [10].

Core Viewpoint - The current A-share Buffett indicator stands at 94.42%, which is above the safe zone, indicating potential caution for investors [6][22]. Valuation Historical Percentile Levels - The PE valuation (TTM) of major broad market indices is above the 20% percentile level of the CSI 500. The PE valuations for the Northbound 50, CSI 300, SSE 50, SZSE Component Index, SSE Composite Index, STAR 50, and CSI A100 are at 81.15%, 83.46%, 83.84%, 89.52%, 96.48%, 98.16%, and 99.66% respectively, suggesting relatively high valuations and associated risks [7]. - In terms of industry, the PE valuations (TTM) for the food and beverage, non-bank financials, and agriculture sectors are below the 20% historical percentile levels, at 6.17%, 10.76%, and 19.15% respectively, indicating potential investment opportunities. Conversely, sectors like steel, media, automotive, telecommunications, electronics, computing, real estate, and retail have PE valuations at 80.40% to 98.43% historical percentiles, warranting caution [7]. Key Index Valuation Performance - The PE valuation levels for key indices show significant increases, with the CSI 500 at 37.38 (up 10.50%), STAR 50 at 177.33 (up 10.33%), and the semiconductor index at 137.68 (up 14.92%) [11][14][26]. Overall Market Valuation Levels - The overall market PE valuation levels indicate that the SSE Composite Index is at 17.02 (up 2.91%), the SZSE Component Index at 32.94 (up 4.76%), and the ChiNext Index at 43.02 (up 4.24%) [26]. - The overall market PB valuation levels show the SSE Composite Index at 1.54 (up 2.99%), the SZSE Component Index at 2.90 (up 4.87%), and the ChiNext Index at 5.79 (up 4.28%) [28]. Industry Valuation Levels - The PE valuation levels across various industries reveal that agriculture is at 23.31 (down 3.24%), basic chemicals at 32.03 (up 5.78%), and steel at 32.36 (up 0.25%) [33]. - The PB valuation levels for industries show agriculture at 2.54 (down 2.31%), basic chemicals at 2.37 (up 5.80%), and steel at 1.19 (up 0.85%) [37]. - The PS valuation levels indicate agriculture at 1.07 (down 1.46%), basic chemicals at 2.03 (up 6.75%), and steel at 0.54 (down 0.04%) [41].