人民币升值期间大类资产复盘 ——全球资产配置每周聚焦 (20260116-20260123) 本期投资提示： 全球资本市场回顾： 本周 (20260116-20260123)全球地缘政治冲突加剧，贵金属继续上 行。1）固收方面， 10Y美债收益率维持在4.2%的水平，美元指数下行1.88%； 2）权益 方面， 本周上证指数整体上行，中证1000和科创50涨幅靠前，上证50跌幅较大；全球市 场中巴西、阿根廷股价涨幅较大，其中A股行业中建筑材料，石油石化、钢铁涨幅靠前， 银行跌幅较大，港股耐用消费品领涨； 3）商品方面， 本周黄金上涨8.3%，主要是因为 地缘政治冲突集中爆发。 聚焦热点：人民币升值期间大类资产表现复盘 ：2000年以来，人民币汇率共经历了6轮升 值与4轮贬值，人民币汇率变化主要受到汇率制度改革、全球贸易周期以及中美货币政策 周期变化的影响。 国内大类资产方面，人民币升值期间，股票稳定的胜率更高，债券和 商品表现规律并不统一。 股票方面 ，创业板整体跑赢沪深300（除2017年），小盘整体 跑赢大盘（除2017年）。 债券方面， 2017、2023、2025年升值期间，国债指数录得负收 益，其他几 ...

首先，春季行情换挡，关注业绩的改善和成长。 上周市场表现出明显的分化特征，大盘蓝筹股走势承压，中小盘股表现活跃；大金融行业出现调 整，周期类行业涨幅领先。这种板块分化和轮动以及市场风格的切换是春季行情进入换挡期的典型特征，即当前市场不再是一个齐涨共跌、加速上行的格 局，而是一个震荡分化、来回拉锯的市场。此外，目前仍在上市公司年报业绩的预披露期间，投资者对业绩超预期和行业景气度高的领域仍会重点关注， 这往往也是春季行情的主要战场，即具备业绩成长性的投资逻辑。 上周市场震荡分化，量能下降。 沪指上周小幅反弹，盘中波动率明显下降，周三之后重新回到五天均线上方。深圳成指表现强于沪市，收盘价正在 接近前周的高点。量能方面，上周两市日均量能约 27000 亿元，较前周明显下降。上周市场热点主要集中在周期性行业。 中证2000 与沪深 300 的比值（归一化处理后）为1.51，较前周继续上升，创出新高 。全周中小盘和科创板涨幅领先，大盘蓝筹股表 现落后。 当前阶段的主要市场特征是板块分化、市场总体波动率下降，同时伴随成交量的萎缩。短期需要关注各分类指数5天均线的支撑力度。 风险提示： 国际地缘、贸易冲突超出预期；全球金融市 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of the futures market as a crucial financial infrastructure that supports the stability of the real economy, particularly in the context of price volatility risks faced by enterprises during economic adjustments and industrial upgrades [2]. Group 1: Service Model and Strategic Collaboration - The "Shenwan Zhiyuan" brand provides a comprehensive service model that encompasses the entire risk management chain for enterprises, exemplified by its collaboration with Shuaiyichi New Materials Group [3]. - A specialized service team was established to guide Shuaiyichi through the entire process of futures trading, enabling the company to become a pioneer in the aluminum alloy futures market and laying a solid foundation for future risk management [3]. Group 2: Innovative Pricing Mechanism - An innovative pricing model combining "futures price + premium/discount" was developed to address traditional pricing challenges, effectively locking in procurement costs and sales prices while enhancing transaction transparency and fairness [4]. - This model mitigates profit losses due to price fluctuations and reduces cooperation risks between upstream and downstream clients, thereby improving transaction efficiency and gaining market recognition [4]. Group 3: Comprehensive Service Expansion - Beyond basic trading support, Shenwan Guotai Futures assisted Shuaiyichi in applying for an industrial cultivation base and hedging quotas, facilitating a transition from market participant to a deep user and co-builder of the industrial ecosystem [5]. - A complete futures application system was established, encompassing trading, pricing, warehousing, and risk management [5]. Group 4: Case Study and Value Demonstration - Shuaiyichi's successful implementation of risk management strategies has significantly reduced the impact of price volatility on operations and led to multi-level strategic enhancements [6]. - The company's hedging strategies have stabilized profit margins and improved financial robustness, while innovative pricing and comprehensive financial capabilities have strengthened its competitive position in the industry [7]. - Shuaiyichi has shifted from passive risk response to proactive risk management, fostering a collaborative ecosystem that promotes mutual growth among upstream and downstream enterprises [7]. Group 5: Commitment to Future Empowerment - The case of Shuaiyichi validates the effectiveness and replicability of the "Shenwan Zhiyuan" service model, providing a clear template for leading enterprises in the bulk commodity industry to utilize financial tools [8]. - The core of this model lies in the synergy of professional support from futures companies, deep participation from real enterprises, and collaborative services from risk management firms, achieving precise alignment between financial supply and industrial demand [8]. - Looking ahead, Shenwan Guotai Futures aims to deepen the construction of the "Shenwan Zhiyuan" brand, extending successful experiences to more industrial sectors through the development of four empowering pillars [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent global market turmoil characterized by simultaneous declines in stocks, bonds, and currencies, driven by geopolitical tensions and fiscal concerns in the US and Japan [1][6][10]. Group 1: Market Reactions - On January 20, a significant sell-off occurred in global markets, with the Nasdaq futures dropping by 1.9% and the Nikkei 225 falling by 1.11% [6]. - The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.28%, while Japan's 30-year bond yield increased to 5.2% [1][6]. - Gold prices surged to a record high of $4,700 per ounce, indicating a flight to safety among investors [6]. Group 2: Triggering Factors - The first trigger was the US tariff risk stemming from the Greenland dispute, where President Trump threatened to impose tariffs on eight European countries, leading to market fears of a repeat of previous "sell America" trades [1][10]. - The second trigger involved Japan's fiscal risk, as Prime Minister Kishi announced early elections and aggressive tax cuts, raising concerns about Japan's financial stability [1][18]. - A third factor was the announcement by Danish pension fund Akademiker Pension to exit US Treasury investments, signaling potential shifts in investor sentiment [14]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Following Trump's speech at the Davos Forum on January 21, which downplayed military action regarding Greenland and suggested a delay in tariff implementation, market fears regarding geopolitical risks and tariffs were somewhat alleviated [1][21]. - The article suggests that the ongoing fiscal expansion in developed economies may lead to "implicit defaults" through financial repression, such as lowering nominal interest rates and increasing inflation tolerance [2].

Group 1 - The article discusses the stock issuance of Shengmeng Co., Ltd. (stock code: 001220) with an issuance price of 28.00 yuan per share [1] - The industry price-earnings ratio is noted as 15.29, while the company's price-earnings ratio is 14.64, indicating a competitive valuation [1] - The maximum subscription limit for investors is set at 0.9 million shares [1]

Core Viewpoint - The successful issuance of bonds by Fujian Jinjiang Cultural Tourism Group reflects the company's strong market influence and sustainable development capabilities, supported by a diversified project layout in the cultural tourism sector [2][3]. Group 1: Bond Issuance Details - The bond issuance totaled 400 million yuan with a coupon rate of 2.41% and a term of 3+2 years, marking the first bond issuance for 2026 [2]. - The issuance was managed by Shenwan Hongyuan Securities, which provided comprehensive professional services throughout the process, receiving recognition from the issuer [2]. Group 2: Company Development and Strategy - Jinjiang Cultural Tourism Group has developed a cultural tourism ecosystem characterized by the integration of culture and urban development, planning and operating high-quality projects such as Wudian City, Wulin, and the 99 Streams Rural Landscape Project [2]. - The company has been optimizing its asset structure and enhancing operational efficiency under the strong leadership of the Jinjiang Municipal Party Committee and government, establishing itself as a significant local state-owned enterprise [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The successful bond issuance not only expands Jinjiang Cultural Tourism Group's direct financing channels and optimizes its debt structure but also showcases Shenwan Hongyuan's professional underwriting capabilities and efficient execution [3]. - Shenwan Hongyuan Securities aims to continue providing tailored capital market solutions to local enterprises, contributing to the high-quality development of the regional economy [3].

Group 1 - The article discusses various investment strategies, including covered call, insurance, and collar strategies, highlighting their performance in different market conditions [3][6][7] - The covered call strategy performed well in months with little to no price increase, while underperforming during significant price increases in July and August [3] - The collar strategy, which combines covered call and insurance strategies, showed better performance during sideways and significant downturns, with returns slightly higher than the underlying asset and lower volatility and maximum drawdown [3] Group 2 - The government bond ETF yielded only 0.7% for the year, negatively impacting the performance of the 95/05 strategy and the cash-secured put strategy, although both strategies exhibited lower volatility and maximum drawdown, indicating a more stable performance [3] - The 95/05 strategy involves investing 95% in a government bond ETF and 5% in long-term call options, with quarterly rebalancing based on market conditions [6] - The cash-secured put strategy starts with a cash position and involves selling out-of-the-money put options while using the remaining funds to invest in the government bond ETF, with monthly adjustments based on option expiration [7]

Market Overview - The market has entered a phase of narrow fluctuations after a series of gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index experiencing mild adjustments since January 13. The overall trend remains stable, with orderly rotation among leading sectors [1] - On Thursday, sectors such as commercial aerospace and mining led the gains, while the semiconductor sector showed signs of slowing down. Over 3,500 stocks rose, indicating improved profitability, although trading volume decreased to 2.7 trillion [1] - The current market adjustment is seen as a healthy consolidation for the spring rally, with the focus on maintaining trading volume and the rotation of hot sectors as key factors for sustaining the market momentum [1] Future Outlook - The market is expected to shift from theme-driven to fundamentals-driven momentum, although technology growth will remain the main focus. The leading sectors since the spring rally have been driven by event-based themes like commercial aerospace and brain-computer interfaces, which, despite their long-term potential, lack short-term performance support [1] - As the market enters a consolidation phase, trading volume may decline, prompting a renewed focus on sectors driven by performance and fundamentals. The primary driver for the spring rally remains the increase in market risk appetite, with technology growth sectors expected to lead the way [1] Sector Highlights - In January, technology and raw materials sectors showed strong performance, with high-dividend stocks also being a focus for potential gains in the upcoming quarterly report season [2] - Key areas of interest include AI hardware, which is expected to see significant growth leading up to 2026, and the ongoing trend of robot commercialization, which will expand into various types of robots and related components [2] - The semiconductor industry is on a path toward domestic production, with attention on semiconductor equipment, wafer manufacturing, materials, and IC design [2] - The demand for new energy materials is rising due to rapid growth in domestic and overseas energy storage needs, with signs of supply shortages and price increases expected to continue through 2026 [2] - The innovative drug sector is anticipated to enter a recovery phase after nearly four years of adjustment, with positive net profit growth expected to continue into 2026 [2]

申万宏源宏观 热点思考 | 财政金融协同，助力"开门红"（申万宏观·赵伟团队） 原创 阅读全文 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the issuance of convertible bonds by Aiwei Electronics and Longjian Co., highlighting their respective bond ratings and conversion prices [2] - Aiwei Electronics has a bond rating of AA+sti with a conversion price of 79.83 yuan and an issuance price of 100.00 yuan [2] - Longjian Co. has a bond rating of AA with a conversion price of 4.63 yuan and an issuance price of 100.00 yuan [2]