煤炭 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 谢佶圆 邮箱：xiejy＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -15% -7% 0% 7% 15% 22% 29% 2024-01 2024-05 2024-09 煤炭开采 沪深300 资料来源：聚源数据、德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《煤炭周报：煤价止跌企稳，持 续看好红利价值》，2024.12.29 2.《煤炭周报：政策加码，重视红 利价值》，2024.12.22 3.《煤炭行业点评：政策支持力度 提 升 ， 红 利 价 值 持 续 显 现 》， 2024.12.19 4.《永泰能源（600157.SH）：上调 回购价格上限，投资价值凸显》， 2024.12.18 5.《淮北矿业(600985.SH)：股东增 持彰显信心，未来成长空间广阔》， 2024.12.17 煤炭周报：煤价触底反弹，坚守 红利逻辑 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 煤炭开采 2025 年 01 月 05 日 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 港口库存去化， ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 商贸零售 2025 年 01 月 04 日 商贸零售 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 易丁依 资格编号：S0120523070004 邮箱：yidy＠tebon.com.cn 周诗琪 资格编号：S0120524120003 邮箱：zhousq＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -29% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 29% 39% 2024-01 2024-05 2024-09 商贸零售 沪深300 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 3.《——商社板块 25 全年策略-对消 费乐观一些》，2024.12.10 4.《——商贸社服周专题 1201-卡牌 专题：头部 IP 加速破圈，产品+渠道 放大 IP 价值》，2024.12.1 5.《——商贸社服周专题 1123-"谷 子经济"：市场高景气度，格局分散、 玩家增加》，2024.11.23 元旦消费数据小结 ——商贸社服周专题 0104 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 周专题：节假日成为重要的消费观察窗口，本次周专题主要通过跟踪元旦旅游、零售 消费数据观察消费恢复情况。 请务必阅读正文 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 买入（维持） 所属行业：有色金属/工业金属 当前价格(元)：17.57 | 沪深300对比 | 1M | 2M | 3M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对涨幅(%) | 10.18 | -1.53 | -10.95 | | 相对涨幅(%) | 14.65 | 1.42 | -4.91 | | 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 | | | | 相关研究 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 谢佶圆 邮箱：xiejy＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -29% -14% 0% 14% 29% 43% 57% 2024-01 2024-05 2024-09 神火股份 沪深300 1.《神火股份：业绩符合预期，中期股 利加强投资回报》，2024.10.23 2.《神火股份（000933.SZ）：煤铝复产 持续推进，盈利有望继续扩张》， 2024.8.20 3.《神火股份（000933.SZ）：业绩符合 预期，维持优质盈利》，2024.3.26 神火股份(0 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kunming Pharmaceutical Group [2][7] Core Views - The report highlights the stable landing of centralized procurement, which removes valuation suppression factors, indicating potential for valuation recovery in the future [6] - The acquisition of Huaren Shenghuo is expected to enhance the company's profits and support its strategic integration in the Sanqi industry chain, aiming to position the company as a leader in the silver-haired health industry [6] - The company's five-year plan aims to double revenue by 2028, with a focus on becoming a leader in the elderly health and chronic disease management sectors [6] Summary by Sections Market Performance - Kunming Pharmaceutical Group's stock has shown a relative performance compared to the CSI 300 index, with significant fluctuations noted [3][4] Related Research - The report discusses the successful acquisition of a 51% stake in Huaren Shenghuo, which is expected to contribute positively to the company's financials [5] - The centralized procurement results indicate that key products have been selected without price reductions, ensuring price stability for the company [6] Financial Forecasts - The earnings forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted upwards to 6.1 billion, 7.3 billion, and 8.9 billion yuan respectively, reflecting optimism about the company's long-term growth [7] - Key financial metrics such as revenue and net profit are projected to grow significantly, with net profit expected to reach 893 million yuan by 2026 [11][13]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Guobo Electronics (688375.SH) with a "Buy" rating [4]. Core Views - Guobo Electronics is a leading supplier of active phased array T/R components and RF integrated circuits, serving both military and civilian sectors. The company is positioned to benefit from the ongoing construction of satellite internet infrastructure, which is expected to drive significant growth in demand for its core products [3][54]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Guobo Electronics primarily engages in the research, production, and sales of active phased array T/R components and RF integrated circuits, making it a leading enterprise in China capable of mass production of these products [3][65]. Revenue and Profitability - The company forecasts total revenues of 2,850 million, 3,648 million, and 4,419 million CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profits of 457 million, 625 million, and 761 million CNY for the same years. The projected PE ratios are 62.65, 45.77, and 37.61 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4][75]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - Guobo Electronics is the largest R&D and production platform for active phased array T/R components in China, with a significant market share among military groups. In the civilian sector, the company competes with international leaders like Skyworks and Qorvo, providing core RF components for mobile communication base stations [3][37]. Growth Drivers - The report highlights three key demand segments supporting T/R component revenue: precision-guided munitions, radar detection, and satellite communication. The active phased array radar market is expected to grow significantly, with Guobo Electronics positioned to benefit from this trend [28][31][97]. Satellite Internet Development - The report notes that China's satellite internet initiatives are lagging behind, with only 54 satellites launched compared to over 7,400 by SpaceX. However, the company anticipates a significant increase in satellite launches in the coming years, which will create demand for T/R components [34][54].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for Gushengtang (02273 HK) with a 2025 PE of 25x, considering the company's scarcity in the sector and high growth potential [5][29] Core Views - Gushengtang is a leading Chinese medicine healthcare service provider with a mature business model and rapid expansion [5] - The company's revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR of 36 1% from 2024 to 2026, driven by increasing patient visits and average spending per customer [4][29] - Gushengtang's membership system has significantly improved customer retention and spending, with members spending approximately 1000 RMB more than non-members [15] Business Overview - Gushengtang operates in two main segments: healthcare solutions (accounting for over 90% of revenue) and healthcare product sales [1][4] - The company has expanded to 71 offline medical institutions across 19 cities as of June 2024, with 70% of locations acquired through M&A [47][49] - Gushengtang has developed 10 proprietary hospital preparations for conditions such as rhinitis, hair loss, and chronic pharyngitis [49] Expansion Strategy - The company plans to add 19 15 15 new stores in 2024 2025 2026 respectively, accelerating its expansion pace compared to 2021-2023 [2] - Gushengtang has established a three-tier talent development system, collaborating with over 100 renowned Chinese medicine experts and training more than 39 000 licensed Chinese medicine practitioners [97] Financial Performance - Revenue grew from 726 million RMB in 2018 to 2 323 billion RMB in 2023, with a CAGR of 26 18% [59] - Net profit turned positive in 2022, reaching 252 million RMB in 2023, representing a 37 6% YoY increase [59] - The company's customer retention rate increased from 50% in 2018 to 62 8% in 2022, driving patient visits to reach 5 46 million in 2024 [3] Industry Analysis - The Chinese traditional medicine diagnosis and treatment market reached 292 billion RMB in 2019 and is expected to grow to 1 8 trillion RMB by 2030 [75] - Private traditional Chinese medicine hospitals have grown faster than public ones, with a 17 6% CAGR in institutions and 11 5% CAGR in patient visits from 2010 to 2021 [80] - The market share of private TCM service providers is projected to increase from 22 3% in 2019 to 51 4% in 2030 [81] Valuation - Comparable companies in the healthcare services sector have an average 2025 PE of 26x [5] - Gushengtang's 2024-2026 revenue is forecasted to be 3 02 4 09 5 39 billion RMB, with net profit of 301 412 557 million RMB respectively [29] - The company's EPS is expected to grow from 1 23 RMB in 2024 to 2 29 RMB in 2026 [29]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the pharmaceutical industry [1]. Core Insights - The GLP-1 authorization is gaining traction, with several pipelines worth monitoring. The oral GLP-1 receptor agonists are becoming a focal point for many pharmaceutical companies due to their advantages over injectable forms [3][10]. - The report highlights the ongoing clinical developments in oral GLP-1 drugs, with several companies, including Eli Lilly and Kailera, advancing their candidates to late-stage trials [4][47]. - The overall investment strategy emphasizes four main lines: undervalued blue-chip stocks, companies with positive short-term changes and low price-to-book ratios, fundamentally solid enterprises, and those with high growth expectations for H2 2024 [5]. Summary by Sections 1. GLP-1 Authorization and Pipeline Focus - The report discusses the recent global licensing agreement between Merck and Hansoh Pharmaceutical for HS-10535, an oral small molecule GLP-1 receptor agonist, which includes an upfront payment of $112 million and potential milestone payments up to $1.9 billion [10][16]. - The report notes that only one oral GLP-1 receptor agonist, Semaglutide, has been approved, but its low oral bioavailability (approximately 0.4-1%) presents challenges [4][45]. - The report identifies several companies actively developing oral GLP-1 drugs, including HRS-7535 by Hansoh, which is in Phase III trials, and others like Huadong Medicine and Xinlitai in earlier phases [36][47]. 2. Market Performance Overview - The report provides a market performance review for the pharmaceutical sector, noting a 1.9% decline in the Shenwan Pharmaceutical Biotech Index, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 3.3% during the week of December 23-27, 2024 [11][26]. - Year-to-date, the Shenwan Pharmaceutical Biotech Index has decreased by 12.3%, lagging behind the CSI 300 Index by 28.4% [11][26]. - The report highlights the top-performing stocks in the sector, including Dongyangguang, Jingfeng Pharmaceutical, and Shuanglu Pharmaceutical, with respective gains of 20.97%, 12.39%, and 10.76% [53]. 3. Investment Strategy and Recommendations - The report outlines a monthly investment portfolio that includes companies like Kangfang Biotech, Zai Lab, and Humanwell Healthcare, indicating a focus on innovative and growth-oriented firms [37]. - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring the GLP-1 weight loss market, with key players such as Hansoh, Xinlitai, and Gilead Sciences being highlighted for their potential [36][42].

Market Performance - As of December 27, 2024, the Nasdaq index increased by 2.6%, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones experienced a pullback[4] - European markets showed mixed results, with Germany's DAX and France's CAC 40 rising by 1.8% and 1.7% respectively, while the UK FTSE 100 declined[4] - In the Asia-Pacific region, indices such as Nikkei 225, Taiwan Weighted Index, and Hang Seng Index performed strongly[4] Inflation and Interest Rates - The U.S. November PCE price index was below expectations, indicating persistent inflation, with a forecasted Fed rate cut of only 50 basis points in 2025[5] - The ongoing political struggle over fiscal spending and the debt ceiling is contributing to high U.S. Treasury yields, currently around 4.6%[5][6] - The market anticipates that the high Treasury yields are largely driven by expectations rather than economic data, with weak economic indicators failing to significantly impact yields[6] Economic Outlook - Concerns regarding fiscal spending and potential impacts from Trump's presidency are creating uncertainty in the U.S. fiscal outlook, which could affect Treasury issuance and yields[7] - The report suggests that the high Treasury yields may stabilize until market concerns regarding Trump's policies ease, with January 20, 2025, potentially marking a turning point[7] Investment Recommendations - The analysis recommends positioning in long-term U.S. Treasuries and small-cap growth indices such as XBI and ARK, anticipating continued high volatility in Treasury yields[7] Risk Factors - Risks include unexpected rebounds in overseas inflation, weaker-than-expected global economic conditions, and escalations in geopolitical tensions, which could lead to increased market volatility[8][50]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the electrical equipment sector [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights a slight increase in silicon material prices and sustained growth in domestic photovoltaic installations for the first eleven months of the year [4][6]. - The report suggests investment opportunities in various segments of the renewable energy sector, including integrated component companies, new battery technologies, and leading inverter firms [7][10][56]. Summary by Sections Silicon Material Price Recovery - Silicon material companies have announced production cuts, leading to a slight recovery in silicon prices. The average transaction price for n-type silicon material is 40,600 CNY/ton, up 0.74% week-on-week, while n-type granular silicon averages 38,000 CNY/ton, up 2.70% [6][34]. - The report notes that the transaction volume for polysilicon has been low, with most companies focusing on executing previous orders and signing new ones [6][34]. Photovoltaic Installation Growth - In the first eleven months of 2024, China's newly installed photovoltaic capacity reached 206.3 GW, a year-on-year increase of 25.88%. In November alone, 25 GW was added, marking a 17.26% increase year-on-year [36][38]. - As of the end of November, the total installed solar power capacity was approximately 820 GW, reflecting a 46.7% year-on-year growth [38]. Investment Recommendations in Renewable Energy - The report recommends focusing on several key areas: 1. Integrated component companies with advantages in new battery technologies, such as JinkoSolar, LONGi Green Energy, JA Solar, and Trina Solar [7]. 2. Companies in the battery segment with emerging technologies, including Tongwei Co., Aiko Solar, and Junda Co. [7]. 3. Silicon wafer companies with efficiency or volume growth potential, such as TCL Zhonghuan and Shuangliang Eco-Energy [7]. 4. Leading inverter companies benefiting from overall growth, including Sungrow Power Supply, GoodWe, and DeYe [7]. 5. Energy storage battery suppliers like CATL, EVE Energy, and Pylon Technologies [7]. Investment Recommendations in Electric Power Equipment - The report advises focusing on the energy storage segment, highlighting companies such as New Energy Wind Power, Jinpan Technology, Sifang Co., and State Grid NARI Technology [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the coal mining industry, indicating a positive outlook for dividend value [7][13]. Core Views - The coal price has stabilized after a decline, supported by winter storage demand due to cold weather and resilient non-electric demand [9][10]. - The report anticipates a U-shaped trend for thermal coal prices in 2025, with limited production growth expected [9]. - The overall market sentiment is improving, with expectations of a rebound in demand and prices due to ongoing economic support policies [10][13]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Tracking - **Price Analysis**: As of December 27, 2024, the CCTD Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal price is 766 CNY/ton, down 1.42% from the previous week [9][11]. - **Supply and Demand**: There has been a slight decrease in overall supply due to some coal mines halting production as annual targets are met [9]. - **Inventory Analysis**: Qinhuangdao's coal inventory decreased by 19,000 tons (-2.81%) to 657,000 tons [11][83]. - **International Market**: The IPE Rotterdam coal price is down 1.98%, and the Australian peak coking coal price has decreased by 6.82% [11][105]. 2. Market Review - The coal sector underperformed the broader market, with a 0.54% decline compared to a 0.95% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index [108]. - The report highlights that thermal coal prices are expected to stabilize, while coking coal prices may rebound in 2025 due to improved macroeconomic expectations [10][13]. 3. Recent Events - The report notes significant developments in the coal industry, including the completion of intelligent coal mines in Shanxi, which now account for over 60% of the province's coal production capacity [112]. - Internationally, coal demand is expected to remain stable, particularly in China, India, and Indonesia, with optimistic signals for the market [112].