证券研究报告 2025 年 3 月 3 日 星期一 【A 股市场大势研判】 指数震荡下跌，创业板指跌超 3% 市场表现： | 指数名称 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 上证指数分时图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000001.SH | 上证指数 | -1.98% | -67.16 | | 399001.SZ | 深证成指 | -2.89% | -316.27 | | 399300.SZ | 沪深 300 | -1.97% | -78.07 | | 399006.SZ | 创业板 | -3.82% | -86.12 | | 000688.SH | 科创 50 | -4.22% | -47.49 | | 899050.BJ | 北证 50 | -4.32% | -59.08 | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 数据 板块排名： | 申万一级涨幅前五 | | | 申万一级跌幅前五 | 热点板块涨幅前五 ◼ | | 热点板块跌幅前五 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 食品饮料 | 0.14% | 计 ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 2 月 18 日 星期二 【2 月 17 日期权全市场数据的可视化概览】 图 1. 各大标的期权的重要数据可视化概览 由下图 2 可知，根据多空择时系统综合打分得到，所有标的的多空信号为：谨慎看多。 图 2. 多空择时系统综合打分结果 表 1. 基于标的的多空判断结果推荐期权策略类型 | 期权标的 | 标的多空 | 牛市 | 熊市价 | 买入宽跨 | 卖出宽跨 | 买入偏实 | 买入偏虚 | 卖出远月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 综合判断 | 价差 | 差策略 | 式策略 | 式策略 | 值期权策 | 值期权策 | 深虚期权 | | | 结果 | 策略 | | | | 略 | 略 | 策略 | 本报告的风险等级为高风险。 特别提示：由于期权价格波动较大，变化速度快，风险较大，敬请投资者控制风险。期权有风险，投资需谨慎。 请务必阅读末页声明。 1 数据来源：东莞证券研究所，wind 数据来源：东莞证券研究所，wind 财富通期权每日策略 | 上证 50ETF | 谨慎看多 | 可选 | 可 ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 2 月 17 日 星期一 【2 月 14 日期权全市场数据的可视化概览】 图 1. 各大标的期权的重要数据可视化概览 由下图 2 可知，根据多空择时系统综合打分得到，所有标的的多空信号为：谨慎看多。 图 2. 多空择时系统综合打分结果 表 1. 基于标的的多空判断结果推荐期权策略类型 | 期权标的 | 标的多空 | 牛市 | 熊市价 | 买入宽跨 | 卖出宽跨 | 买入偏实 | 买入偏虚 | 卖出远月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 综合判断 | 价差 | 差策略 | 式策略 | 式策略 | 值期权策 | 值期权策 | 深虚期权 | | | 结果 | 策略 | | | | 略 | 略 | 策略 | 本报告的风险等级为高风险。 特别提示：由于期权价格波动较大，变化速度快，风险较大，敬请投资者控制风险。期权有风险，投资需谨慎。 请务必阅读末页声明。 1 -8.00% -7.00% -6.00% -5.00% -4.00% -3.00% -2.00% -1.00% 0.00% 1.00% 2.00 ...

2025 年 2 月 17 日 两融与市场情绪分析量化周报 金融工程两融周报 分析师：费小平 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340518010002 电话：0769-22111089 邮箱：fxp@dgzq.com.cn 分析师：岳佳杰 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340518110001 电话：0769-22118627 邮箱： yuejiajie@dgzq.com.cn 摘要： 本报告的风险等级为中风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 两 融 研 究 两 融 周 报 金 融 工 程 研 究 报 告 金融工程两融周报 1.基于两融的市场情绪温度计 1.1 全市场融资资金活跃度指标 衡量全市场融资资金活跃度的指标有两个：（1）融资余额占流通市值 占比；（2）当日融资买入额占全市场成交额占比。 截至上周四，融资余额占流通市值占比指标数值处于 70%历史分位数 位置。当日融资买入额占全市场成交额占比指标上周的日均值处于 85%历 史分位数位置。 值得注意的是，当前融资余额占流通市值占比值说明存量的、偏长线 交易的融资资金占全市 ...

Market Performance - The market opened lower on Monday, with the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index both declining over 1% [2][22] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 2922.45, down 0.93%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 8561.95, down 1.54% [1][2] - The overall market trading volume remained around 580 billion, continuing a trend of being below 600 billion for four consecutive trading days, indicating a lack of trading enthusiasm [22] Sector Analysis - The report highlights that dividend concept stocks performed well against the market trend, with the power sector leading gains [2] - Conversely, software stocks experienced a collective adjustment, and brokerage stocks showed volatility [2] - Only the public utilities and banking sectors recorded gains, while sectors such as computing, media, real estate, and retail saw significant declines [2] Monetary Policy Insights - The People's Bank of China announced that it would conduct temporary reverse repos or repos as needed, with specific interest rate adjustments aimed at stabilizing market expectations [4][13] - The central bank's actions are expected to narrow the interest rate corridor, reducing short-term market interest rate volatility and facilitating the transmission of monetary policy signals [4] Future Outlook - The upcoming Third Plenary Session is anticipated to announce significant reform measures that could boost market risk appetite, suggesting a potential stabilization in the market after a period of consolidation [22] - Recommended sectors for attention include banking, public utilities, transportation, telecommunications, and household appliances [22]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Market Weight" [3][62]. Core Insights - June excavator sales exceeded expectations, with a total of 16,603 units sold, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.31%. Domestic sales reached 7,661 units, up 25.63% year-on-year, while export sales were 8,942 units, down 7.51% year-on-year [2][3]. - The excavator sales in June showed a seasonal resilience, indicating a gradual stabilization and potential acceleration of a new cycle, supported by favorable policies [3]. - The first half of 2024 saw a total of 103,213 excavators sold, a year-on-year decrease of 5.15%, with domestic sales increasing by 4.66% to 53,407 units, while exports fell by 13.81% to 49,806 units [3]. - The construction and mining fixed asset investment remains relatively stable, with May figures at 6.68% and 17.70% respectively, despite slight month-on-month declines [3]. - The electric machinery trend is evident, with electric excavator sales in June reaching 16 units, a month-on-month increase of 128.57%, and electric loader sales at 1,570 units, up 418.15% year-on-year [4]. Summary by Sections Excavator Sales Data - In June 2024, excavator sales totaled 16,603 units, with domestic sales at 7,661 units and exports at 8,942 units. The year-on-year growth for domestic sales was 25.63%, while exports saw a decline of 7.51% [2][3]. - The first half of 2024 recorded 103,213 excavators sold, with domestic sales increasing by 4.66% and exports decreasing by 13.81% [3]. Market Trends - The construction machinery sector is showing signs of recovery, with a stabilization in sales and a potential for a new cycle driven by policy support [3]. - The electric machinery segment is growing rapidly, with significant increases in sales of electric loaders and excavators, indicating a shift towards electrification in the industry [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on industry leaders such as SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, Zoomlion, LiuGong, and Hengli Hydraulic for potential investment opportunities [4].

Market Performance - The pharmaceutical and non-ferrous metal sectors showed significant gains, with the pharmaceutical sector leading at 3.12% increase, while the banking sector experienced a decline of 2.15% [2] - Notable sectors with strong performance included innovative drugs at 4.39% and biomedicine at 3.72%, while humanoid robots and AI mobile phones faced declines of 1.46% and 0.39% respectively [2] Market Outlook - The market is currently in a consolidation phase, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing a slight decline of 0.26% and the ChiNext Index increasing by 0.51% [6][15] - The overall market turnover remained around 580 billion, indicating low trading volume, and there is a focus on whether the index can stabilize and initiate a sustained rebound [6][17] - Attention is drawn to potential opportunities in sectors such as state-owned enterprises, pharmaceuticals, non-ferrous metals, semiconductors, and food and beverage [6] Economic Context - The report highlights that external demand is under pressure due to unexpected declines in overseas economies and worsening Sino-US trade tensions, which may impact domestic exports [7] - The global economic slowdown, exacerbated by prolonged interest rate hikes in major economies, is compressing domestic liquidity and may lead to market volatility [7] Strategic Initiatives - The government is pushing for high-quality development through new industrialization and deep integration of technological and industrial innovation, focusing on six future directions: manufacturing, information, materials, energy, space, and health [4][20]

Market Overview - The market experienced a low-level consolidation with all three major indices closing down, with the Shanghai Composite Index recording a seven-day losing streak [15][50] - As of July 4, northbound capital saw a net outflow of 16.906 billion yuan over the past five trading days, with the Shanghai market experiencing a net outflow of 2.871 billion yuan and the Shenzhen market 14.035 billion yuan [15][50] - The recent strong performance of the US dollar has contributed to the continuous outflow of northbound capital, adding pressure to the market [15] Economic Indicators - The central bank has maintained a supportive monetary policy stance, with expectations of a balanced and slightly loose liquidity environment in July [5][47] - The real estate market in first-tier cities is showing signs of recovery, with transaction volumes in June reaching a three-year high [16] - The upcoming consumption tax reform is anticipated to boost market sentiment, with potential changes including expanding the tax base and shifting tax collection responsibilities [16] Sector Performance - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as finance, TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), electric power equipment, public utilities, and machinery equipment for potential investment opportunities [50] - In terms of capital flows, industries such as public utilities, national defense and military industry, transportation, oil and petrochemicals, and construction decoration saw net inflows, while pharmaceuticals, non-ferrous metals, electric power equipment, electronics, and basic chemicals experienced net outflows [7][15] Technical Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index has been oscillating below the 3000-point mark, with trading volumes in the two markets falling below 600 billion yuan for three consecutive trading days [50] - The report indicates that after a prolonged period of oscillation and correction, investor pessimism may have been fully released, suggesting that the current A-share market has a high cost-performance ratio and safety margin [50]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a standard rating for the lithium battery industry chain [2] Core Insights - The lithium battery index has decreased by 4.23% over the past two weeks, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.38 percentage points [7] - The European Union has initiated temporary anti-subsidy taxes on electric vehicles imported from China, which may exert short-term pressure on export expectations for new energy vehicles [35] - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong performance growth in the battery segment, leading material companies with quality production capacity, and segments benefiting from new battery technologies [35] Summary by Sections Market Review - As of July 5, 2024, the lithium battery index has fallen by 1.14% this month and 0.25% year-to-date, both underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.26 and 0.25 percentage points respectively [7] - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is 92,000 CNY/ton, down 3.16% in the last two weeks [17] Price Changes in the Lithium Battery Industry Chain - Prices for lithium salts, cobalt, and various battery materials have generally decreased, while the price of electrolytic nickel has slightly increased [15] - Specific price changes include: - Lithium hydroxide (LiOH 56.5%) at 87,800 CNY/ton, down 3.30% [17] - Electrolytic cobalt at 214,000 CNY/ton, down 3.60% [17] - Phosphate lithium at 39,600 CNY/ton, down 1.98% [20] Industry News - The China Passenger Car Association estimates that wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 970,000 units in June, a year-on-year increase of 28% [33] - The report highlights the ongoing trend of inventory reduction in the downstream sector, with procurement demand showing a temporary decline [35] Company Announcements - Companies such as Ningde Times, Yiwei Lithium Energy, and others are highlighted as key investment targets due to their strong performance and growth potential [35]

Investment Ratings - The banking sector is rated as "Overweight" (maintained) [2] - The securities sector is rated as "Market Perform" (maintained) [4] - The insurance sector is rated as "Overweight" (maintained) [4] Core Insights - The banking index increased by 1.84% over the past two weeks, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index which decreased by 1.85% [10] - The securities sector experienced a decline of 6.77%, with market sentiment remaining low due to increased volatility and regulatory scrutiny [39] - The insurance sector is facing pressure from declining long-term interest rates, prompting some companies to adjust their guaranteed interest rates downward [41] Market Review - As of July 5, 2024, the banking, securities, and insurance indices had respective changes of +1.84%, -6.77%, and -1.72% [10] - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market was 6176.05 billion, reflecting a decrease of 7.10% [31] - The 10-year government bond yield rose from 2.20% to 2.25% following the central bank's announcement of bond borrowing agreements [38] Valuation Situation - The banking sector's price-to-book (PB) ratio is 0.60, with state-owned banks at 0.62 and joint-stock banks at 0.54 [19] - The securities sector's PB ratio is 1.08, below the three-year median of 1.37, indicating potential for valuation recovery [23] - The insurance companies' price-to-earnings value (PEV) ratios are as follows: New China Life at 0.32, China Pacific at 0.47, Ping An at 0.50, and China Life at 0.57 [25] Investment Recommendations - For the banking sector, recommended stocks include Ningbo Bank, Hangzhou Bank, and Agricultural Bank of China, focusing on high dividend yields and stable performance [6][38] - In the securities sector, attention is drawn to firms like Zheshang Securities and CITIC Securities, which are expected to benefit from policy support [40] - In the insurance sector, companies such as China Pacific and Ping An are highlighted for their growth potential and strategic reforms [41]