事 农林牧渔行业 超配（维持） 生猪养殖持续"反内卷" 农林牧渔行业事件点评 2025 年 9 月 18 日 分析师：魏红梅（SAC 执业证书编号：S0340513040002） 电话：0769-22119462 邮箱：whm2@dgzq.com.cn 件 点 评 事件： 9 月 16 日，农业农村部联合国家发展改革委，召集 25 家生猪养殖龙头企业集聚一堂，召开生猪产能 调控企业座谈会。 点评： 东莞证券研究报告评级体系： | | | 公司投资评级 | | --- | --- | --- | | 买入 | 预计未来 6 | 个月内，股价表现强于市场指数 15%以上 | | 增持 | 预计未来 6 | 个月内，股价表现强于市场指数 5%-15%之间 | | 持有 | 预计未来 6 | 个月内，股价表现介于市场指数±5%之间 | | 减持 | 预计未来 6 | 个月内，股价表现弱于市场指数 5%以上 | | 无评级 | | 因无法获取必要的资料，或者公司面临无法预见结果的重大不确定性事件，或者其他原因，导 | | | | 致无法给出明确的投资评级；股票不在常规研究覆盖范围之内 | | | | 行业投资评级 | ...

Market Overview - The A-share market showed a strong upward trend with major indices closing higher, particularly the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index, which rose over 1% [1][2] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets exceeded 2 trillion yuan for the fifth consecutive trading day, indicating a favorable market sentiment [4] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Electric Power Equipment (up 2.55%), Automotive (up 2.05%), and Household Appliances (up 1.64%), while the weakest sectors were Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery (down 1.02%) and Retail (down 0.98%) [1][2] - Concept indices that performed well included Lithography Machines (up 3.30%) and Flexible Screens (up 2.13%), whereas Duty-Free Shops and Pork concepts saw declines [1][2] Policy and Economic Outlook - The Ministry of Commerce and other departments released policies aimed at expanding service consumption, proposing 19 measures across five areas, including promoting high-quality service supply [3] - The report highlights the ongoing marginal slowdown in the domestic economy as of August, with expectations for timely policy support to boost market momentum [4] Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to flexibly manage their positions and avoid blindly chasing high prices, while focusing on sectors with favorable conditions and valuation levels [4] - Recommended sectors for investment include Non-ferrous Metals, Automotive, Food and Beverage, Financials, and TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) [4]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed a mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3860.50, down by 0.26%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 1.51% to 3066.18 [1][3] - The market experienced structural differentiation, with the Shanghai index declining while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext indices gained [3][4] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Electric Power Equipment (up 2.22%), Media (up 1.94%), Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery (up 1.79%), Automotive (up 1.44%), and Coal (up 1.32%) [2] - Conversely, the sectors with the poorest performance were Comprehensive (-1.80%), Communication (-1.52%), National Defense and Military Industry (-1.05%), Banking (-0.90%), and Non-ferrous Metals (-0.81%) [2] Concept Index Performance - The leading concept indices were Pork (up 2.82%), Cloud Gaming (up 2.63%), E-sports (up 2.53%), Mobile Games (up 1.88%), and Poultry Farming (up 1.80%) [2] - The lagging concept indices included Military Informationization (-1.35%), Terahertz (-1.34%), Copper Cable High-Speed Connection (-1.30%), Domestic Aircraft Carrier (-1.29%), and Data Certification (-1.26%) [2] Economic Data Insights - In August, China's fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) grew by 0.5% year-on-year, while the retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.4% [3][4] - The industrial sector saw a real growth of 5.2% in value-added output for large-scale industries in August [4] Future Outlook - The report suggests that the A-share market is likely to continue its upward trend in the medium term, supported by ongoing policy support, liquidity easing, and profit recovery [4] - Recommended sectors for investment include Non-ferrous Metals, Automotive, Food and Beverage, Financials, and TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) [4]

Group 1 - The report indicates that global equity markets experienced a broad rally, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index rising by 3.89% over the week, marking five consecutive weeks of gains, while the MSCI Developed Markets Index increased by 1.47% [4][9] - In the domestic market, all three major indices showed positive performance, driven by policy expectations and a focus on technology sectors, with only five out of 31 industries declining [4][9] - The report highlights that only bond ETFs recorded negative average weekly returns, while other types of ETFs achieved positive returns, particularly in stock and cross-border ETFs [4][9] Group 2 - The report notes a shift in market focus from the battery industry chain back to the artificial intelligence industry chain, particularly emphasizing the semiconductor sector due to a significant contract between Oracle and OpenAI [13][14] - The securities index continued to attract capital, with a net inflow of 61.43 billion yuan this week, following an 80 billion yuan inflow the previous week, indicating strong investor interest in this sector [14][16] - The report suggests that investors should consider taking profits in certain indices that have reached high valuations, while maintaining cash reserves for better investment opportunities [13][14] Group 3 - The report categorizes bond ETFs, noting that convertible bond ETFs performed well with an average increase of 0.24%, while the bond market adjusted due to the strong performance of the stock market [18][20] - The report mentions that the People's Bank of China released financial data indicating a significant year-on-year decrease in entity credit growth, which may pressure the growth rate of social financing [18][20] - It is suggested that if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates as expected in September, it could create more room for further rate reductions in China, leading to a more optimistic outlook for the bond market [18][20] Group 4 - The report highlights that leveraged funds continue to rise, but the proportion of ETF financing is close to historical lows, with a preference for more stable convertible and pure bond ETFs [22][23] - The net financing purchases for ETFs tracking convertible bonds and exchangeable bonds were the highest this week, with 4.1 billion yuan for convertible bond ETFs and 3.4 billion yuan for policy financial bonds [22][23] - The report identifies specific stock ETFs that attracted leveraged funds, including those linked to the Chinese Internet 50, Hong Kong Stock Connect innovative drugs, and new energy batteries [22][23]

Weekly New Stock Performance - Two new stocks were listed from September 8 to September 12, with an average first-day price increase of 477.82%[2] - Both new stocks, Aifenda and Sanxie Electric, had first-day gains exceeding 100%[2] Weekly New Stock Listing Trends - The number of new stocks listed increased by 1 compared to the previous week, while the total fundraising amount decreased by 0.55 billion yuan[3] - No new stocks experienced a first-day price drop in the week prior[3] Monthly New Stock Listing Overview - From September 1 to September 15, 3 new stocks were listed, raising a total of 15.72 billion yuan, with an average first-day price increase of 409.41%[10] - The previous month (August) saw 8 new stocks listed, raising 39.34 billion yuan, with an average first-day price increase of 266.43%[10] Upcoming New Stock Subscriptions - Five new stocks are available for online subscription this week, including one on the main board and three on the ChiNext board[15] - The expected fundraising amounts for these stocks range from 5.69 billion yuan to 49.30 billion yuan[17][19] Risk Considerations - New stock performance is influenced by market sentiment; poor market conditions may negatively impact new stock listings[19] - Newly listed stocks may experience significant price volatility due to limited liquidity and lower circulating shares[19]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained), indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the market index by more than 10% in the next six months [6]. Core Insights - In August 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) continued to grow rapidly, with production and sales reaching 1.391 million and 1.395 million units, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 27.4% and 26.8% [4]. - The penetration rate of NEVs reached 48.8% in August, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, while the cumulative penetration rate for January to August was 45.5% [4]. - Battery sales also showed significant growth, with total battery sales of 134.5 GWh in August, a year-on-year increase of 45.6% [4]. - The demand for power batteries is expected to rise further due to the traditional peak season for NEVs, and the development of renewable energy and new data centers is driving high growth in the energy storage sector [4]. Summary by Sections New Energy Vehicle Market - In August 2025, NEV production and sales were 1.391 million and 1.395 million units, with year-on-year growth of 27.4% and 26.8% respectively [4]. - Cumulative NEV production and sales from January to August were 9.625 million and 9.620 million units, with year-on-year growth of 37.3% and 36.7% [4]. - Exports of NEVs reached 224,000 units in August, doubling year-on-year, while cumulative exports from January to August were 1.532 million units, up 87.3% [4]. Battery Market - Total battery production in August was 139.6 GWh, with a year-on-year increase of 37.3% [4]. - Power battery sales accounted for 73.5% of total sales, with a volume of 98.9 GWh, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 44.4% [4]. - The export volume of batteries in August was 22.6 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 23.9% [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the industry chain that are improving their fundamentals, particularly those with technological and production advantages in solid-state electrolytes and new materials [4]. - Key companies to watch include CATL, EVE Energy, and others that are actively involved in the solid-state battery core process and equipment [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the oil transportation industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by over 10% in the next six months [4]. Core Insights - The recent surge in oil transportation prices is attributed to a combination of reduced shipping capacity and increased crude oil production, with VLCC average daily charter rates rising significantly [1][3]. - OPEC+ has decided to implement a production adjustment of 137,000 barrels per day in October, which is expected to stimulate global crude oil demand and subsequently boost oil transportation needs [2]. - The tightening of sanctions by the US and Europe on shadow tanker markets is likely to increase the demand for compliant tanker capacity, further driving up prices [2][3]. Summary by Sections Oil Transportation Price Trends - The average daily charter rate for VLCCs surged to $71,863 on September 12, 2025, with a cumulative increase of 59% since early September [1]. OPEC+ Production Adjustments - OPEC+ has been gradually increasing production since April 2025 to defend market share, which is expected to stimulate crude oil export demand [2]. Impact of Sanctions - Recent sanctions against shadow tanker markets, including significant measures against the Houthis and Russian-related fleets, are anticipated to shift more crude oil trade towards compliant tankers, potentially raising their prices [2]. Investment Strategy - The oil transportation industry is entering a peak season, with expectations of continued price increases due to OPEC+ production boosts and heightened sanctions [3]. - The report suggests focusing on companies such as China Merchants Energy Shipping Company (601872), China Merchants Jinling Shipyard (601975), and COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation (600026) as potential investment opportunities [3].

证券研究报告 2025 年 9 月 15 日 星期一 【A 股市场大势研判】 市场冲高回落，三大指数集体收跌 市场表现： | 指数名称 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 上证指数分时图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3870.60 | -0.12% | -4.71 | | | 深证成指 | 12924.13 | -0.43% | -55.76 | | | 沪深 300 | 4522.00 | -0.57% | -26.04 | | | 创业板 | 3020.42 | -1.09% | -33.33 | | | 科创 50 | 1338.02 | 0.90% | 11.99 | | | 北证 50 | 1600.88 | -2.11% | -34.55 | | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 数据 板块排名： | 申万行业表现前五 | | | 申万行业表现后五 | 概 | 念板块表现前五 | 概念板块表现后五 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 有色金属 | 1.96 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for both the real estate and building materials sectors [2][4]. Core Insights - The "anti-involution" policies in the building materials sector are being implemented, leading to improved industry profitability [2]. - Recent policy adjustments in major cities like Shenzhen are expected to stimulate short-term market activity, although long-term recovery will depend on sales data and corporate performance [2][25]. - The cement industry is showing signs of recovery due to self-regulation and cost optimization, with expectations for further profit increases in the second half of 2025 [2][44]. - The glass and fiberglass sectors are experiencing weak supply-demand balance, but potential improvements in demand could lead to price recovery [2][45]. Summary by Sections Real Estate Sector - As of September 11, 2025, the Shenwan Real Estate Index has increased by 2.86% over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.72 percentage points [11]. - The average price of new residential properties in 100 cities rose by 0.20% month-on-month and 2.73% year-on-year, while second-hand housing prices fell by 0.76% month-on-month and 7.34% year-on-year [23][25]. - Major real estate companies are facing continued pressure, with mid-year losses widening compared to the previous year [25]. - Recommended companies include Poly Developments (600048), Binjiang Group (002244), and China Merchants Shekou (001979) for their strong performance in first and second-tier cities [2][25]. Building Materials Sector - The Shenwan Building Materials Index has increased by 0.31% over the past two weeks, ranking 23rd among 31 sectors [26]. - The average price of cement is currently at 314 RMB/ton, with a slight decrease of 1 RMB/ton from the previous week [30]. - The glass industry is in a weak supply-demand balance, with limited price rebound potential in the short term, but a possible recovery as construction activity increases [45]. - Recommended companies in the cement sector include Conch Cement (600585), Taipai Group (002233), and Huaxin Cement (600801) for their solid fundamentals and attractive dividend yields [44][46].

Market Overview - The market experienced a rebound this week, with all three major indices closing in the green. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.52%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 2.65%, and the ChiNext Index gained 2.10% [1][10]. - The overall market sentiment indicates a stronger willingness among investors to buy, suggesting a potential continuation of the upward trend led by technology assets [2][10]. Economic Indicators - Price trends showed slight improvement, with exports expected to slow down but still demonstrating resilience. The August CPI recorded a year-on-year decline of 0.4%, while the core CPI rose to a new high of 0.9% [11][12]. - Non-farm employment data from the U.S. showed a significant drop, with only 22,000 jobs added in August, leading to heightened expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [12][14]. - The total monetary policy remains optimistic, with a continuous increase in margin financing, indicating a robust trading environment [13][14]. Sector Recommendations - It is advised to focus on sectors such as finance, TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), machinery, non-ferrous metals, and power equipment for potential investment opportunities [4][15]. Potential Stocks - The report highlights several potential stocks for investment tracking, including Xinhua Insurance, Xiamen Tungsten, and Sunwoda Electronic, among others, with varying performance metrics [24][25]. - The average performance of potential stocks shows a significant increase, with an average rise of 19.54% over the tracking period [24]. Future Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a "slow bull" trend, with a potential influx of both domestic and foreign capital as the Federal Reserve's easing expectations rise [14]. - The report anticipates that the market may return to a lower upward slope after adjustments, indicating a healthier pace of incremental capital flow [14].