行 业 研 究 房地产统计局 1-5 月数据点评：5 2024年6月17日 看好/维持 月销售降幅略微减小，新开工面积 东 房地产 行业报告 兴 降幅明显扩大 证 券 销售：5 月新房销售同比降幅略微减小，以价换量趋势持续。2024 年 1-5 月 未来3-6个月行业大事： 股 商品房累计销售面积同比增速为-20.3%、前值为-20.2%；累计销售金额同比 2024年7月中旬，统计局公布6月房地产数 份 增速为-27.9%、前值为-28.3%。其中，5月商品房销售面积同比增速为-20.7%、 据 有 前值为-22.8%；销售金额同比增速为-26.4%、前值为-30.4%；销售均价单月 资料来源：国家统计局，东兴证券研究所 限 行业基本资料 占比% 同比增速为-9.8%、前值为-14.8%。我们认为，随着核心一、二线城市纷纷取 公 消或者放松限购，降低首付比，取消或者降低房贷利率下限，有助于市场需求 股票家数 117 2.55% 司 的企稳。 行业市值(亿元) 11721.48 1.4% 证 券 开发投资：5月新开工面积同比降幅明显扩大，竣工面积、开发投资维持弱势。 流通市值(亿元) 10785.94 1.6% ...

行 业 研 究 轻工制造行业：造纸关注旺季表现，包装 2024年6月17日 看好/维持 关注细分领域改善机会 东 轻工制造 行业报告 兴 证 分析师 刘田田 电话：010-66554038 邮箱：liutt@dxzq.net.cn 执业证书编号：S1480521010001 券 分析师 常子杰 电话：010-66554040 邮箱：changzj@dxzq.net.cn 执业证书编号：S1480521080005 股 份 分析师 沈逸伦 电话：010-66554044 邮箱：shenyl@dxzq.net.cn 执业证书编号：S1480523060001 有 投资摘要： 限 公 回顾造纸包装行业表现： 司 证 浆纸价格与纸企成本错位运行，23年木浆纸盈利前低后高。2023年文化纸、白卡纸、特种纸盈利整体承压，分季度来看则 呈现前低后高走势，主要影响因素是浆纸价格与纸企成本的错位运行。上半年由于年内浆价短期出现迅速、大幅度地下跌， 券 纸价亦短期承压，而纸企成本回落则相对滞后。下半年随着浆价回暖、旺季到来，纸价获得支撑，而纸企成本红利显现，盈 研 究 利呈现修复趋势。相对而言，供需关系更好的文化纸、特种纸表现优 ...

行 业 研 究 银行行业：信贷需求仍较弱，政府 2024年6月17日 看好/维持 债发力社融增速回升 东 银行 行业报告 兴 ——5 月社融金融数据点评 证 券 事件：6月 14日，人民银行发布 2024年 5月社融金融数据。5月社 未来3-6个月行业大事： 股 融新增2.07万亿，同比多增0.5万亿；存量社融同比增8.4%，环比升 6月20日：公布6月LPR 份 0.1pct；5 月人民币贷款新增 0.95 万亿，同比少增 0.41 万亿；M1 增 有 速-4.2%，环比下降2.8pct；M2增速7.0%，环比下降0.2pct。 资料来源：中国人民银行，东兴证券研究所 限 行业基本资料 占比% 公 点评： 股票家数 50 1.09% 司 5 月政府债发行提速，社融同比多增。5 月末存量社融同比增 8.4%， 行业市值(亿元) 112295.96 13.42% 证 增速环比回升0.1pct。当月社融新增2.07万亿，同比多增0.5万亿， 流通市值(亿元) 76603.39 11.4% 券 其中主要是政府债大量发行贡献。5 月政府债券发行明显提速，新增 研 行业平均市盈率 5.42 / 1.23 万亿，同比多增 ...

行 业 研 究 计算机行业：车路协同久久为功，蓄势待 2024年6月14日 看好/维持 发 东 计算机 行业报告 兴 ——智慧交通系列报告之一 证 券 分析师 刘蒙 电话：010-66554034 邮箱：liumeng-yjs@dxzq.net.cn 执业证书编号：S1480522090001 股 分析师 张永嘉 电话：010-66554016 邮箱：zhangyj-yjs@dxzq.net.cn 执业证书编号：S1480523070001 份 有 投资摘要： 限 交通运输是现代产业体系的基石产业，顶层设计重视智慧化建设。二十大报告中提出要加快建设交通强国，以更好的建设现 公 代产业体系。交通运输是国民经济中基础性、先导性、战略性产业，是重要的服务性行业，对于构建新发展格局、推动高质 司 证 量发展具有重要服务保障作用。交通运输部《加快建设交通强国五年行动计划（2023—2027年）》在十大行动之四“交通运 输科技创新驱动行动”中提出，要完善科技创新基础制度，加强交通战略科技力量、科技基础能力建设，加快推进智慧交通 券 建设，健全交通科技创新体系。顶层设计非常重视交通运输行业智慧化建设发展，为智慧交通建设指明 ...

敬请参阅报告结尾处的免责声明 东方财智 兴盛之源 东 兴 晨 报 东兴晨报 P2 （分析师：刘航 执业编码：S1480522060001 电话：021-25102913） 长强劲，新业务减亏成效显著（20240613） 东兴晨报 P3 1. 万科 A: 公告称，为满足经营需要，公司向中国邮政储蓄银行股份有限 公司深圳分行(以下简称"邮储银行")申请贷款共计 41 亿元，公司之 控股子公司通过将持有的项目资产抵押等方式为相关贷款提供担保。担 保事项一：公司向邮储银行申请了银行贷款，贷款本金金额合计人民币 16 亿元，期限 3 年。担保事项二：公司向邮储银行申请了银行贷款，贷 款本金金额人民币 25 亿元，期限 3 年。（资料来源：同花顺） 4. 纵横股份：公告称，军队采购网 6 月 13 日发布公告，网络空间部队后 勤部物资供应处根据军队供应商管理相关规定，决定对公司全资子公司 成都纵横大鹏无人机科技有限公司自 2024 年 6 月 12 日起 3 年内禁止参 加全军物资工程服务采购活动。在禁止期内，法定代表人任斌控股或管 理的其他企业禁止参加上述范围军队采购活动，投标代表人李琼禁止代 理其他供应商参加上述范围 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The non-farm employment situation remains stable in the short term, with job tightness returning to pre-pandemic levels. The ratio of job vacancies to total non-farm employment has decreased from a post-pandemic high of 103.77% to 100.93%, close to the pre-pandemic high of 100.91% in November 2018 [2][3] - The current policy interest rate is not far from the neutral rate, limiting the number of potential preventive rate cuts. The expectation is that if inflation continues to decline, there may be a slight chance of rate cuts this year [3][4] - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is expected to remain between 3.65% and 4.85%, with a low likelihood of returning to the long-term low rates seen from 2008 to 2022 [4] Group 2: Hydrogen Energy Industry - The hydrogen energy sector is positioned for significant growth, driven by global decarbonization efforts. Hydrogen can facilitate deep decarbonization in major carbon-emitting sectors such as energy, transportation, and industry [9][10] - The demand for hydrogen is expected to expand beyond traditional sectors, with significant growth anticipated in transportation, energy storage, and metallurgy. By 2030, the share of electrolysis in hydrogen production is projected to rise to 33% [10][11] - Investment opportunities in the hydrogen sector are highlighted, particularly in fuel cell heavy-duty trucks, which are expected to benefit from policy support and market demand. Key players include China National Heavy Duty Truck Group and Foton Motor [13] Group 3: Carbon Fiber Market - The trend towards lightweight consumer electronics is expected to boost the demand for carbon fiber composites, particularly in foldable smartphones and XR (VR/MR/AR) devices. The foldable smartphone market is projected to reach 60 million units by 2026, driving carbon fiber demand [14][15] - The robotics market is also anticipated to grow, further increasing the demand for carbon fiber composites due to their lightweight and efficiency-enhancing properties [15] Group 4: Non-Banking Financial Sector - Positive policy effects are expected to gradually manifest in the non-banking financial sector, with a more favorable outlook for the capital markets and real estate sectors. The combination of domestic fiscal and monetary policy support is likely to enhance investor risk appetite [19][20] - The long-term trends affecting brokerage valuations include the degree of market-oriented reforms, the pace of wealth management transformation, and the competitive landscape [20] Group 5: Construction and Building Materials - The external environment is aligning with expectations, with U.S. inflation remaining stable and high interest rates likely to persist. This could impact global economic growth rates [33][34] - Domestic demand is still constrained by the real estate sector, necessitating policy improvements to stimulate internal demand and stabilize asset prices [34] Group 6: Laser Processing Industry - The company is a leading player in the laser processing control systems market, with a significant market share and strong R&D capabilities. The growth in new applications and technologies is expected to enhance the company's competitive position [24][25] - The company is focusing on expanding its market presence and product offerings, which aligns with the growing demand for high-precision laser processing technologies [29]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the analog chip industry, indicating a "Buy" rating for the sector [1]. Core Insights - The analog chip industry serves as a bridge between the digital and physical worlds, with a high design threshold and longer product lifecycle compared to digital integrated circuits [1][15]. - The global analog chip market is expected to recover in 2024, driven by demand from sectors such as artificial intelligence, high-performance computing, and electric vehicles [3][39]. - Major application areas for analog chips include communications, industrial, and automotive sectors, each accounting for over 20% of the market [2][28]. Summary by Sections 1. Overview of Analog Chips - Analog chips are composed of resistors, capacitors, and transistors, processing continuous analog signals and facilitating interaction between humans and devices [1][15]. - The market is divided into general-purpose analog chips (40% market share) and specialized analog chips (60% market share) [19]. 2. Market Growth and Trends - The analog IC market is projected to grow from $83.91 billion in 2023 to $91.26 billion in 2024, with a long-term forecast of reaching $129.69 billion by 2029 [3][41]. - The automotive sector, particularly the electric vehicle market, is a significant growth driver, with sales in China reaching 9.495 million units in 2023, a 37.9% increase year-on-year [2][31]. 3. Insights from Leading Companies - Texas Instruments (TI) and Analog Devices (ADI) dominate the market, holding 19% and 9% market shares respectively, with TI's revenue in 2023 reaching $17.519 billion [3][42]. - Both companies have significantly increased their capital expenditures over the past decade, with TI's CAPEX rising from $410 million in 2013 to $5.07 billion in 2023 [3][55]. 4. Domestic Market Dynamics - The domestic analog chip industry is competitive, with companies like Shengbang Technology and Hiwatt Microelectronics showing substantial revenue growth in Q1 2024 [6][7]. - The report highlights the importance of continuous R&D investment and product line expansion for domestic firms to compete effectively against international giants [5][6].

行 业 研 究 非银行金融行业跟踪：多条监管细 2024年6月14日 看好/维持 则落地，资本市场环境有望持续优 东 非银行金融 行业报告 兴 化 证 券 证券：6月3日至6月7日一周市场日均成交额环比增加约300亿至0.77万 未来3-6个月行业大事： 股 亿；两融余额（6月7日）环比下降约200亿至1.5万亿。继新“国九条”颁 无 份 布后，多部门就发展经济、优化资本市场的政策有序推出，房地产政策效果也 行业基本资料 占比% 有 有望逐步显现。同时，更多的监管细则也在持续落地中，6月7日证监会就《中 限 股票家数 82 1.79% 国证监会行政处罚裁量基本规则(征求意见稿)》公开征求意见，作为事后监管 公 行业市值(亿元) 52958.52 6.32% 的重要指导性文件，明确处罚细则能起到震慑违法违规行为的作用，有望降低 司 流通市值(亿元) 40968.47 6.08% 相关行为的发生率。而三大交易所起草《程序化交易管理实施细则（征求意见 证 稿）》，则是对交易行为加强管理，通过监管规范和实时监控等方式严控交易风 行业平均市盈率 17.52 / 券 险，降低资本市场无序波动，市场环境有望持续优化。 行业 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the semiconductor industry, specifically the analog chip sector, indicating a "Buy" rating for the industry [1]. Core Insights - The analog chip industry serves as a bridge between the digital and physical worlds, with a high design threshold and longer product lifecycle compared to digital integrated circuits [1][14]. - The global analog chip market is expected to recover in 2024, driven by growth in sectors such as artificial intelligence, high-performance computing, and electric vehicles [3][27]. - Major applications for analog chips include communications, industrial, and automotive sectors, each accounting for over 20% of the market [2][21]. Summary by Sections 1. Analog Chips: Bridging Digital and Physical Worlds - Analog chips are composed of resistors, capacitors, and transistors, processing continuous analog signals [1][14]. - They can be categorized into general-purpose and application-specific analog chips, with the latter having a higher complexity and integration level [17]. 2. Global Analog Chip Industry Growth Prospects - The analog IC market is projected to grow from $83.91 billion in 2023 to $91.26 billion in 2024, with a long-term forecast of reaching $129.69 billion by 2029 [3][27]. - The automotive sector, particularly the electric vehicle market, is expected to be a significant growth driver, with 2023 sales of 9.495 million units in China, a 37.9% year-on-year increase [2][23]. 3. Insights from Leading Companies: Texas Instruments and Analog Devices - Texas Instruments (TI) holds a 19% market share, while Analog Devices (ADI) has approximately 9% [3][28]. - Both companies have significantly increased their capital expenditures over the past decade, with TI's CAPEX rising from $410 million in 2013 to $5.07 billion in 2023 [3][34]. 4. Domestic Analog Chip Market Dynamics - Domestic companies like 圣邦股份 (Silan Microelectronics) and 希荻微 (Higreen) are leading in the analog chip design sector, with significant revenue growth reported in Q1 2024 [6]. - The domestic market is characterized by a competitive landscape, with various companies focusing on different segments such as power management and signal chain chips [6][21]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading domestic companies in the analog IC sector, including 圣邦股份, 思瑞浦, 希荻微, 南芯科技, 艾为电子, and 芯海科技, to capitalize on growth opportunities [7].

东 兴 晨 报 东兴晨报 P1 东 兴 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 分析师推荐 【东兴宏观】点阵图符合市场预期——6 月美国 FOMC 点评（20240613） 摘要： 主要观点： 点阵图收紧明显，降息中位数降至一次。 降息节点：参考时间节点可为核心 CPI 环比跌落 0.3%平台保持 2~3 个月，若 保持 5 月通胀态势，9 月降息概率不低。 降息幅度：美联储降息诉求为政策利率匹配回落的通胀水平，本轮预防性降 息幅度有限，首先考虑 50bp。 降息窗口：窗口较窄，三四季度为传统消费旺季，降息过晚可能会遇到经济 尚可但通胀回落放缓的不利降息的局面。 维持美国十年期国债利率下限 3.65~3.85%，上限 4.6~4.85%；美股维持短期 没有明显风险点，长期中性。 风险提示：海外通胀超预期，海外经济衰退。 （分析师：康明怡 执业编码：S1480519090001 电话：021-25102911） 事件：美团发布 2024Q1 业绩公告。2024Q1，公司实现营业收入 732.8 亿元 （yoy+25.0%），净利润 53.7 亿元，去年同期盈利 33.6 亿元，经调整净利润 74.9 亿元，去年同期盈利 ...