Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the China healthcare sector, with a recovery underway and improving investor sentiment, particularly in the biotech segment, which has seen a year-to-date performance increase of 37% [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant recovery in the China healthcare sector, driven by improving investor sentiment and bottoming valuations, with offshore healthcare stocks up 21% year-to-date [1]. - Biotech companies are expected to benefit from licensing-out themes and resilience to geopolitical uncertainties, with key events like ASCO in June serving as potential catalysts for individual stock performance [1]. - There is a growing interest in domestic demand, particularly in capital expenditures and hospital traffic, with robust equipment tendering observed [1]. - The report anticipates a consumption recovery in areas such as refractive surgeries and orthodontics, although the sustainability of this recovery is contingent on the broader macroeconomic outlook [6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of global collaboration and licensing opportunities for pharmaceutical companies, with a focus on upcoming data releases at ASCO to enhance business development visibility [16]. Summary by Relevant Sections Biotech - The biotech sector is focusing on global licensing deals and achieving break-even points, with significant catalysts expected from the upcoming ASCO conference [13][14]. - Companies like Zai Lab and Innovent are highlighted for their innovative drug pipelines and potential for global collaboration [14][15]. Pharma - The pharmaceutical industry experienced soft growth in Q1 2025, but companies with strong product cycles, such as Hengrui, are showing better earnings trends [16]. - Collaboration opportunities are expected to increase, particularly with data releases at ASCO [16]. CDMO - CDMO companies reported better-than-expected results in Q1 2025, with strong order growth and maintained guidance for FY25 [17]. - Companies like WuXi Apptec and Asymchem are noted for their resilience in earnings delivery [17]. Medical Consumables - The report indicates challenges in inpatient surgeries due to reimbursement controls, but opportunities exist in the obesity and GLP-1 segments [19]. - Surgical volumes are expected to remain challenging, with ongoing pricing pressures [19]. Capital Equipment - Strong tendering activity was noted, but pricing pressures from value-based purchasing (VBP) are leading to longer revenue realization timelines [21]. - Companies like United Imaging and Mindray are expected to see positive growth in the coming quarters [21]. Retail Pharmacy - The retail pharmacy sector is undergoing a market clearing process, with a net decrease in drugstores for the first time, indicating a consolidation trend [26]. - Yifeng is highlighted as a resilient player in this space, benefiting from operational efficiency [26].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a higher geopolitical risk premium in the near term but maintains an unchanged forecast for 2026 oil prices [5][26][29] Core Insights - Brent oil prices have increased by 12% to $74 per barrel due to escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly Israeli strikes on Iran's nuclear program [4][5] - The forecast predicts Brent and WTI prices will decline to $59 and $55 per barrel in Q4 2025, and to $56 and $52 per barrel in 2026, assuming no disruptions to oil supply [5][29] - Two alternative scenarios are considered for potential price impacts: one involving damage to Iran's export infrastructure leading to a peak Brent price of over $90 per barrel, and another considering broader regional disruptions that could push prices above $100 per barrel [20][24] Summary by Sections Price Forecasts - The report adjusts the Brent price forecast for Q3 2025 to $63 per barrel from $61, while maintaining a long-term forecast of $56 for 2026 [5][29] - The report outlines a detailed forecast for Brent and WTI prices across various quarters, indicating a gradual decline in prices through 2026 [29] Geopolitical Risks - The report highlights the increased geopolitical risks due to recent events in the Middle East, which could lead to short-term price volatility [6][26] - It emphasizes that while the geopolitical risk premium may normalize if oil supply remains stable, the current situation has heightened uncertainty [6][26] Iranian Oil Infrastructure - The report estimates Iran's crude production at 3.6 million barrels per day (mb/d) and discusses the potential impact of damage to its oil infrastructure on global energy prices [7][16] - It notes that damage to upstream or midstream assets would have a more significant impact on prices compared to downstream assets [7][16] Scenarios for Price Upside - The first scenario considers a reduction in Iranian production by 1.75 mb/d for six months due to infrastructure damage, with a subsequent recovery [17][20] - The second scenario examines risks to regional trade routes and potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which could significantly affect global oil prices [23][24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive view on select covered developers, reiterating Buy ratings on CRL, COLI, Greentown, Jinmao, and Longfor [6][50][51]. Core Insights - The housing supply ratio in China is currently at 1X, which is lower or comparable to other sample countries, indicating potential for improvement as inventory is disclosed [2][8]. - The report identifies that 37% of sample cities have a housing supply ratio below 0.9X, while 26% have a ratio above 1.1X, with the excess inventory concentrated in Tier-3 and Tier-4 cities [8][14]. - The analysis suggests that a long-term housing supply ratio of 1.1X is reasonable, implying a potential funding need of Rmb0.7tn-1.6tn for inventory buybacks, which is equivalent to 0.5-1.2% of national GDP [6][35][36]. - The government has accelerated land buyback efforts, announcing nearly Rmb400bn in buybacks, primarily focused on lower-tier cities [6][37][47]. Summary by Sections Housing Supply Ratios - The report examines 78 cities, accounting for approximately 50% of China's population and housing stock, revealing a housing supply ratio of 0.7X for Tier-1 cities, 0.89X for Tier-2 cities, and 1.02X for Tier-3/4 cities [6][8][11]. - The report builds four illustrative cases to analyze how housing ratios could change based on different assumptions regarding urban household formation and living space per capita [27][28]. Inventory Analysis - As of end-1Q25, the sample cities are estimated to have 1.5 billion square meters of unsold residential inventory, with nearly half remaining as raw land [22][25]. - The average saleable inventory is projected to last 26 months, while total unsold inventory could take up to 6 years to clear [25][22]. Developer Performance - The report highlights that covered developers have shown more resilient primary average selling price (ASP) performance compared to secondary markets, with a significant portion of land investment concentrated in top-performing markets [50][51]. - The expected improvement in margins and return on equity (ROE) beyond 2027 is supported by better investment strategies and decreasing contributions from older low-margin land banks [51][60].

Investment Rating - The report rates the following companies as "Buy": BHP.AX, RIO, GLEN, LUN, FM, CMOC, MMG, Zijin, S32, and Vale [4][25][47] Core Insights - The all-in marginal cost for the top 20 copper producers is estimated at approximately US$4.3/lb for 2024, indicating a broad support for a long-run copper price of around US$4.6/lb [1][8] - The top 20 copper producers are projected to spend over US$30 billion in capital expenditures (capex) in 2024, with Codelco and Freeport leading with approximately US$4.5 billion each [2][25] - Copper demand is expected to rise by 4 million tonnes by 2030, necessitating higher prices to support growth in mine and scrap supply to prevent market deficits [3] Summary by Sections Cost Analysis - The report presents a global copper cash cost curve, with the marginal cash cost of production estimated at approximately US$3.1/lb, influenced by various factors including inflation and ore grade decline [16][24] - The five companies with the highest all-in costs for 2024 are KGHM, Capstone, Codelco, Ivanhoe, and Teck, with Codelco's Chuquicamata mine being the most costly at around US$5.9/lb [2][12] Production and Demand Forecast - Refined copper production is projected to increase from 26,015 thousand tonnes in 2023 to 27,061 thousand tonnes in 2024, while consumption is expected to rise from 25,954 thousand tonnes in 2023 to 26,712 thousand tonnes in 2024 [31] - The report indicates a potential market balance shift, with a forecasted surplus of 349 thousand tonnes in 2024, followed by a deficit of 120 thousand tonnes in 2026 [31] Company-Specific Insights - Codelco aims to recover production volumes to 1.7 million tonnes per annum over the next 4-5 years, with significant investments in modernization and expansion [27] - Freeport's Grasberg operations in Indonesia are highlighted for their industry-leading cash cost of negative ~US$0.3/lb, despite high capex spending [27] - BHP's Escondida mine is projected to see a decline in production due to grade decline, but growth is expected to accelerate post-2030 [28]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a bearish outlook on the USD, indicating a potential for further depreciation [1] Core Insights - The report identifies three main factors contributing to the bearish outlook on the USD: US policymaking uncertainty, stronger-than-expected foreign policy responses, and the impact of tariffs on US businesses and consumers [1] - The CNY is expected to strengthen against the USD due to the competitiveness of China's export sector and the undervaluation of the currency [7] - The CHF is viewed as a safe haven, likely to appreciate during geopolitical turmoil, despite potential domestic monetary policy easing [8] - The ILS faces a risk premium due to geopolitical tensions, impacting its performance against the USD [9] - The EUR/USD forecast has been revised higher, with expectations for the cross to rise to 1.25 over the next 12 months, driven by changes in global investor allocations [15] - The GBP faces structural challenges, with expectations for a gradual upward drift in EUR/GBP due to narrowing UK-EU rate differentials [15] - The BRL is favored among emerging market currencies, supported by high real rates and macro stability [16] - The CLP is seen as an attractive funding currency for relative value trades, despite being undervalued [19] Summary by Sections USD - The report outlines a bearish outlook for the USD, driven by US policymaking uncertainty and tariff impacts on domestic profits and incomes [1] - Recent inflation data showed a smaller impact from tariffs than expected, suggesting a need for ongoing monitoring [1] CNY - The CNY is expected to appreciate against the USD, supported by positive trade developments and the currency's undervaluation [7] CHF - The CHF is anticipated to remain strong amid geopolitical risks, with a preference for it over JPY as a safe haven [8] ILS - The ILS is under pressure due to geopolitical tensions, with its performance influenced by the duration and scope of conflicts in the region [9] EUR - The EUR/USD forecast has been raised, with expectations for the cross to reach 1.25 in the next 12 months, reflecting a shift in capital flows back into the Euro area [15] GBP - The GBP faces challenges from weaker labor market data and disappointing GDP figures, with expectations for a gradual upward drift in EUR/GBP [15] BRL - The BRL is highlighted as a strong performer among emerging market currencies, benefiting from high real rates and macroeconomic stability [16] CLP - The CLP is viewed as an attractive funding currency for trades, despite its undervaluation against the USD [19] Section 899 - The report discusses the implications of pending Section 899 legislation, emphasizing its role in international tax negotiations rather than revenue generation [21]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Sunny Optical is maintained at Neutral with a target price of HK$83.1, representing an upside potential of 24.4% from the current price of HK$66.80 [13][12][8] Core Insights - The report highlights a muted month-over-month growth in May shipments across various product lines, with handset lens shipments down 5% month-over-month and year-over-year to 98 million units [1][7] - Camera module shipments decreased by 17% year-over-year and 4% month-over-month to 38 million units, attributed to a strategic shift towards mid/high-end projects [1][8] - Vehicle lens shipments showed a year-over-year increase of 28% but a month-over-month decline of 7%, totaling 11 million units in May, driven by growing client demand [1][7] Shipment Summary - Handset lens shipments for the first five months of 2025 (5M25) totaled 498 million units, reflecting a 5% year-over-year decline, tracking 81% of previous first-half estimates [7][8] - Vehicle lens shipments in 5M25 reached 54 million units, marking an 18% year-over-year increase, consistent with 86% of prior estimates [7][8] - Camera module shipments in 5M25 were 186 million units, down 25% year-over-year, tracking 81% of previous estimates, which is lower than the 86% tracked in the same period last year [8][7] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Sunny Optical indicate a gradual increase from RMB 38.3 billion in 2024 to RMB 56.5 billion by 2027, with net income expected to rise from RMB 2.7 billion in 2024 to RMB 4.8 billion in 2027 [9][13] - The report anticipates a target P/E multiple of 21.0x for 2026, aligning with the company's historical trading range [12][8] Market Context - The report notes competitive pressures in the handset lens market and varying shipment growth expectations for camera modules, which could impact market share and operational efficiency [12][8]

GS Equity Radar What the market is missing on S899 and buying against the grain Something others are missing on S899. The merchandising team hosted a highly attended (1,000+ clients live) webcast with Chief US Political Economist, Alec Phillips, and our strategists (Sharon Bell and Guillaume Jaisson). What surprised us most was the volume of questions on the 50%+ US ownership being exempt in the current form of the bill and the feedback that other commentators were scanning for high US revenues without an o ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The US fiscal concerns have intensified due to the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," which is projected to increase the deficit by $2.4 trillion over the next decade, coinciding with already high levels of debt and deficit as a share of GDP [26][29] - Experts like Ray Dalio, Kenneth Rogoff, and Niall Ferguson express heightened concern about the US fiscal trajectory, indicating that the current situation is different from past fiscal worries due to higher real interest rates and unsustainable debt levels [27][28][31] - The report suggests that while tariff revenues may offset some deficit impacts, the overall fiscal position remains unsustainable in the long term [29][71] Summary by Sections US Fiscal Concerns - The US deficit and debt are at their highest levels outside of crisis periods, with interest expenses also reaching record highs [46][49] - The "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" is expected to worsen the fiscal outlook, increasing the primary deficit by approximately $2.4 trillion through 2034 [72][73] Expert Opinions - Ray Dalio warns of an impending crisis due to a "big debt cycle" where the cost of servicing debt becomes unsustainable [27] - Kenneth Rogoff highlights the rise in real interest rates as a critical factor that exacerbates the fiscal burden, predicting a potential crisis within four to five years [55][57] - Niall Ferguson notes that the US is violating "Ferguson's Law," where debt service costs now exceed defense spending, marking a significant shift in fiscal dynamics [28] Market Implications - The report anticipates that US long-end rates will likely remain high, and the Dollar is expected to weaken further as US exceptionalism diminishes [34][36] - Experts recommend diversifying investments across asset classes and countries with strong fiscal positions while underweighting debt assets [34][44]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Snowflake Inc. with a target price of $208.61 [18]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the central role of platforms like Databricks and Snowflake in enterprise AI transformation, highlighting their rapid innovation and the shift of value from infrastructure to platforms and applications [1][5]. - Databricks' product innovations, including Lakebase, Agent Bricks, and Databricks Apps, are designed to enhance AI adoption and streamline the development of AI-driven applications [1][4]. - The demand for data and analytics solutions remains strong, with enterprises increasingly moving AI workloads into production, indicating a higher maturity in enterprise AI compared to the previous year [6][8]. Summary by Sections Databricks Innovations - Databricks introduced Lakebase, a serverless database designed for AI applications, which offers low-latency performance and autoscaling capabilities [4]. - The company reported that Databricks Apps has become its fastest-growing product, with over 2,500 customers and more than 20,000 applications created since its launch [5][9]. - Agent Bricks provides a framework for building enterprise-grade AI agents, reflecting the growing trend of deploying Agentic AI in enterprises [5][6]. Market Dynamics - Partner feedback indicates a healthy demand environment for data solutions, with enterprises willing to invest in AI technologies [6][8]. - The competitive landscape is evolving, with Snowflake narrowing the gap with Databricks in AI services and features [8]. - Enterprises like JPMorgan are deploying numerous AI use cases, with significant annual spending on AI, reinforcing the sustainability of AI growth [5][6]. Financial Performance - Databricks reported over $2.6 billion in revenue for FY25, representing more than 60% growth, and is targeting a revenue run-rate of $3.7 billion for the upcoming quarter [9]. - The company reached free cash flow breakeven in FY25 and emphasized its commitment to innovation and R&D, with R&D spending at 32% of revenue [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hikvision is Neutral with a 12-month target price of Rmb30.6, reflecting a cautious view on the saturated surveillance market and macro uncertainties [1][13][15]. Core Insights - Hikvision is expected to see a gradual recovery in revenues, projecting a 5% year-over-year growth in 2Q25, reaching Rmb24.7 billion, driven by better seasonality and expansion in overseas and innovative business [1]. - The company is focusing on higher-margin business segments and leveraging AI technology to enhance its product offerings, including the launch of the Guanlan AI Model for complex scenario analysis [2][15]. - Earnings estimates for 2025-2027 have been revised down by 26%, 19%, and 18% respectively, primarily due to lower revenue expectations from the China Public Sector Business (PBG) and Small-medium Enterprise Business (SMBG) [3][7]. Revenue and Earnings Projections - Revenue projections for Hikvision are as follows: - 2025E: Rmb106.4 billion (down 8% from previous estimates) - 2026E: Rmb120.3 billion (down 7%) - 2027E: Rmb130.5 billion (down 7%) [7][17]. - Gross margin (GM) is expected to be 44.1% in 2025, with slight fluctuations in subsequent years [7][11]. Financial Metrics - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for Hikvision are revised to Rmb1.55 for 2025, Rmb1.85 for 2026, and Rmb2.06 for 2027, reflecting a decrease from previous estimates [7][17]. - Operating profit (OP) is expected to decline significantly, with a projected Rmb15.3 billion for 2025, down 28% from earlier estimates [7]. Market Position and Strategy - Hikvision is positioned as a global leader in the surveillance industry, benefiting from potential industry consolidation and expanding into AI surveillance and innovative business areas for long-term growth [15]. - The company is focusing on diversifying its solutions to include emergency response, safe production, and cost-saving measures, while also enhancing its AI capabilities to improve operational efficiency [1][2].