[Table_Page] 行业专题研究|食品饮料 2024 年 8 月 13 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 食品饮料行业 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------|----------------------------|----------|----------------------------|----------|----------------------------| | | | | | | 对标安井，解析千味渠道力 | | [Tabl分析师： | 符蓉 | 分析师： | 吴思颖 | 分析师： | 高鸿 | | e_Author] | SAC 执证号：S0260523120002 | | SAC 执证号：S0260523120012 | | SAC 执证号：S0260522010001 | | | | | | | SFC CE.no: BUQ312 | | | 021-38003552 | | 021-38003556 | | 021-38003690 | | | furong@gf.com.cn | | wusi ...

[Table_Page] 行业专题研究|证券Ⅱ 2024 年 8 月 14 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 证券Ⅱ行业 私募股权专题研究：优化募投管退，壮大耐心资本 [Tabl e_Author] 分析师： 陈福 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | --- | |------------------------| | 执证号：S0260517050001 | | SFC CE.no: BOB667 | | 0755-82535901 | | chenfu@gf.com.cn | ⚫ 我国私募股权行业经过迅速发展，进入规范发展阶段。（1）20 世纪 90 年代，私募股权进入早期萌芽阶段。 随着我国第一个风投机构成立以及外资进入，资本市场制度不断建设，私募股权市场萌芽。（2）随着政策不断 完善，私募股权市场迎来快速发展。2008 年，全国社保基金获准自主投资经国家发改委批准的产业基金和在国 家发改委备案的市场化股权投资基金。2014 年，互联网技术广泛应用，互联网创新成为风口，助力我国私募股 权市场快速发展。（3）现今，我国私募股权已进入规范发展阶段。2017 年，证监会、中基协等相关部 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Chongqing Brewery (600132 SH) with a target price of 71 69 yuan per share [4] Core Views - Chongqing Brewery reported H1 2024 revenue of 8 86 billion yuan (+4 2% YoY) and net profit of 900 million yuan (+4 2% YoY) Q2 2024 revenue was 4 57 billion yuan (+1 5% YoY) with net profit of 450 million yuan (-6 0% YoY) [2] - Beer sales volume in Q2 2024 increased by 1 5% YoY to 917 thousand kiloliters while revenue per ton remained flat at 4981 6 yuan/kiloliter [2] - Premium product revenue declined by 1 9% YoY in Q2 2024 due to weak demand in the catering and high-end beer segments while mainstream and economy products grew by 5 1% and 10 7% respectively [2] - Cost per ton increased by 2 1% YoY in Q2 2024 to 2468 2 yuan/kiloliter driven by higher depreciation and aluminum costs Gross margin declined by 1 0 pct YoY to 50 5% [2] - The company has maintained a high dividend payout ratio of around 100% over the past two years and is expected to continue with mid-term dividends [2] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is projected to grow from 15 37 billion yuan in 2024E to 16 34 billion yuan in 2026E representing a CAGR of 3 1% [3] - Net profit is expected to increase from 1 39 billion yuan in 2024E to 1 55 billion yuan in 2026E with a CAGR of 5 6% [3] - EPS is forecasted to rise from 2 87 yuan in 2024E to 3 20 yuan in 2026E [3] - The company's PE ratio is estimated at 21x for 2024E declining to 19x by 2026E [3] Valuation - The report values Chongqing Brewery at 25x 2024E PE implying a target price of 71 69 yuan per share [2] - Current share price stands at 60 65 yuan representing a potential upside of 18 2% [4]

[Table_Title] 农林牧渔行业 行业景气继续上行，7 月上市公司生猪出栏量保持平稳 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 猪价再创年内新高，母猪产能恢复或较为缓慢。随着前期产能去化效 应显现，8 月上旬以来猪价持续上行，猪价再创年内新高，根据搜猪网， 当前价格水平突破 21 元/公斤。根据 wind 数据，8 月 9 日自繁自养群 体头均盈利为 587 元/头。产能方面，当前行业资产负债率整体处于高 位，近期后备母猪价格上涨较缓慢，亦侧面说明当前行业补栏积极性相 对一般，根据涌益咨询数据，7 月份能繁母猪存栏量环比增长 1.79%。 ⚫ 上市公司跟踪：根据各公司月度经营数据公告，2024 年 7 月各上市公 司生猪整体出栏量保持稳定。出栏结构方面，受仔猪市场需求回落影 响，7 月上市公司整体仔猪销售占比继续下滑。（1）出栏量：7 月各上 市公司商品猪出栏量合计 1251 万头，环比增长 10.4%，同比增长 3.64%；剔除牧原后的各上市公司商品猪出栏量合计 635.1 万头，环比 增长 1.41%，同比减少 0.3%。24 年 1-7 月，各上市公司商品猪出栏 量同比增长 4.6%；剔除 ...

[Table_Title] 银行行业 [Table_Page] 行业专题研究|银行 2024 年 8 月 14 日 证券研究报告 人民币套利交易能否终结 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------|----------------------------| | 分析师： [Tabl | 倪军 | 分析师： | 王先爽 | | e_Author] | SAC 执证号：S0260518020004 | | SAC 执证号：S0260520040002 | | | | | SFC CE.no: BQV910 | | | 021-38003646 | | 021-38003645 | | | nijun@gf.com.cn | | wangxianshuang@gf.com.cn | | | 请注意，倪军并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 | ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, with a current price of 21.43 CNY and a reasonable value of 28.45 CNY [1]. Core Views - The company has shown continuous growth in performance, with a significant increase in liquid cooling technology leading future growth [1]. - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.83 billion CNY for the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 38.24% [1]. - The temperature control room business has experienced substantial growth, supported by large customer orders, with revenue of 856 million CNY in the first half of 2024, up 85.91% year-on-year [1]. - The company’s energy storage business revenue was approximately 1.6 billion CNY in the first half of 2024, reflecting an 11% year-on-year increase [1]. - The introduction of liquid cooling technology is accelerating, with expected significant growth in revenue from data centers and computing equipment [1]. Financial Summary - The company’s projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 4.91 billion CNY, 6.47 billion CNY, and 8.34 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 531 million CNY, 693 million CNY, and 907 million CNY [1][2]. - The company’s EBITDA is expected to grow from 684 million CNY in 2024 to 1.13 billion CNY in 2026 [2]. - The projected EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 0.71 CNY, 0.93 CNY, and 1.22 CNY, respectively [3]. - The company’s ROE is expected to increase from 18.3% in 2024 to 22.9% in 2026 [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 19.13 CNY per share, compared to the current price of 14.39 CNY [4][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 772 million CNY for the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 23.56%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 180 million CNY, up 31.56% year-on-year, and the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 179 million CNY, an increase of 33.36% year-on-year. In Q2 2024 alone, revenue reached 387 million CNY, a 35.35% increase year-on-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 103 million CNY, up 71.31% year-on-year [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 772 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 23.56%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 180 million CNY, reflecting a 31.56% increase year-on-year. The second quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 387 million CNY, a 35.35% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 103 million CNY, up 71.31% year-on-year [2][3]. Business Structure and Growth - The company optimized its business structure, with self-owned vessel charter income and time charter income increasing by 35.60% and 46.82% year-on-year, respectively. However, income from chartering externally owned vessels decreased by 69.08% year-on-year. The gross margin improved by 2.17 percentage points year-on-year due to this optimization. The overseas revenue reached 292 million CNY, a significant increase of 112.37% year-on-year, indicating strong growth in foreign trade [2][3]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain steady growth in domestic trade while expanding its foreign trade operations. Two vessels with a total deadweight of 11,200 tons are planned to be operational in Q3 2024, and two additional vessels of 13,000 tons are scheduled for delivery in 2025. The rapid expansion of capacity positions the company to benefit from the upward cycle in the market [2][3]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 1.28 CNY, 1.47 CNY, and 1.79 CNY, respectively. The company is expected to achieve a compound annual growth rate of 26%, and a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15 times for 2024 is applied, leading to a reasonable value of 19.13 CNY per share [2][3].

[Table_Title] 建筑材料行业 收储有望加快落地，淡季建材景气弱势震荡 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 目前建材基本面受地产景气影响仍在左侧、基建需求也一般，需等待地 产企稳，但部分优质龙头企业仍表现出较强的经营韧性，如二手房和存 量房翻新需求支撑下零售建材韧性强、周期建材龙头在底部仍有显著 的超额利润。建议积极关注水泥龙头底部配置机会，同时继续关注基本 面韧性强的零售建材，和部分结构性景气赛道（玻纤、出海、药玻等）。 ⚫ 消费建材：地产仍在寻底，龙头公司经营韧性强。消费建材长期需求稳 定性好（受益存量房需求）、行业集中度持续提升、竞争格局好的优质 细分龙头中长期成长空间仍然很大。2024 年地产仍在寻底，新开工面 积预计回落至中期较低水平，地产政策转变有望先带来销售面积好转； 核心龙头公司盈利领先地产行业实现有韧性的复苏。看好三棵树、兔宝 宝、北新建材、伟星新材、中国联塑、东鹏控股、东方雨虹，关注坚朗 五金、箭牌家居、蒙娜丽莎、科顺股份、志特新材、王力安防。 ⚫ 水泥：淡季需求疲软，价格震荡调整，等待天气好转需求恢复带来的 涨价机会。据数字水泥网，截至 2024 年 8 月 9 日 ...

[Table_Title] 基础化工行业 国务院部署加快绿色转型，维生素景气再加速 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 行业基础数据跟踪：据 wind 资讯，8 月 3 日~8 月 9 日，SW 基础化工 板块下降 1.82%，跑输万得全 A 指数 0.74pct；化工子行业下跌较多， 表现较差的有橡胶助剂、涂料油墨、锦纶和钾肥等板块，表现较好的有 无机盐、粘胶和煤化工等板块。 ⚫ 化工品价格下跌较多:据百川、wind 资讯，在我们跟踪的 336 个产品 中,上涨、持平、下跌的产品数量分别为 68 种、152 种、116 种,占比 分别为 20%、45%和 35%。化工品价格下跌较多。价格涨幅前五：维 生素 A(50 万 IU/g)、维生素 E、维生素 B3(烟酸)、美国 HenryHub 期 货、聚醚胺。价格跌幅前五：液氯、棉短绒(短丝)、EVA(光伏用）、EVA(发 泡用）、MIBK。 ⚫ 国务院部署加快绿色转型。根据同花顺资讯，中共中央、国务院发布关 于加快经济社会发展全面绿色转型的意见，系中央层面首次对加快经 济社会发展全面绿色转型进行系统部署。其中提到，大力推动钢铁、有 色、石化、化工、 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 12.61 CNY per share based on a PE of 25X for 2024 [3]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 999.7 million CNY for the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.18%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 77.93 million CNY, up 3.86%, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 65.91 million CNY, reflecting a growth of 12.92% [1]. - The performance showed a positive trend with all three major business segments recovering to varying degrees. The revenue for Q1 and Q2 of 2024 was 468 million CNY and 528 million CNY, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 6.32% and 7.94% [1]. - The company is expanding its global presence, having established laboratories in various countries including Japan, and now serves nearly 7,300 clients across approximately 90 countries and regions [1]. Financial Summary - The company expects its net profit attributable to shareholders to reach 210 million CNY, 249 million CNY, and 293 million CNY for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [2]. - Revenue projections for the upcoming years are 2.211 billion CNY for 2024, 2.512 billion CNY for 2025, and 2.858 billion CNY for 2026, with growth rates of 10.4%, 13.6%, and 13.8% respectively [2]. - The EBITDA is projected to be 394 million CNY in 2024, increasing to 541 million CNY by 2026 [2].