[Table_Page] 深度分析|食品饮料 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 食品饮料行业 短期需求承压——2024 年中报业绩前瞻 [Table_Summary] 核心观点: ⚫ 白酒:淡季动销放缓,价盘略有波动。(1)高端酒:茅台价盘下滑,五 -24% -17% -10% -4% 3% 10% 泸相对平稳。二季度为白酒行业传统淡季,送礼和高端宴席等需求环比 春节旺季期间有所下滑。(2)次高端:商务需求仍弱,汾酒优势领先。 商务用酒需求仍弱,汾酒得益于香型优势与全价格带布局持续领先增 长。(3)地产酒:渠道掌控力强,基本盘无虞。省内白酒龙头在宴席和 自饮市场需求相对保持稳定,其中安徽省内动销好于江苏。 ⚫ 啤酒:Q2 动销略有承压,关注 Q3 旺季表现。据统计局数据计算 4-5 月啤酒行业产量同比-5.9%,预计板块动销略有压力,我们预计 24Q2 [分析师: Table_Author]符蓉 吨价维持 24Q1 表现呈现低个位数增长,成本红利持续释放但预计行 业销售费用率或同比小幅上行,综合来看净利率依然处于上行通道。 ⚫ 调味品:淡季动销平稳,原材料成本持续改善。2024Q2 调味品淡季, 分析 ...

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|保险Ⅱ 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 保险Ⅱ行业 6 月保费点评-高基数不改寿险单月增长,财 险保费增长提速 [Table_Summary] 核心观点: 受益于居民储蓄意愿持续高位及部分代理人宣导预定利率下调等综合 因素,上市险企单月保费增速全面转正。据月度保费公告数据显示, 1-6 月 平 安 / 国 寿 / 新 华 / 太 保 寿 险 原 保 费 增 速 分 别 为 5%/4.1%/-8.4%/-1.2%,较 1-5 月的 3.3%/4.3%/-10.9%/-2.1%整体改 善。尽管旧产品退市导致同比高基数,叠加银保渠道报行合一的实施, 上市险企普遍面临着保费增长的压力,但是得益于当前居民储蓄意愿 持续高位,且代理人改革成效持续释放,同时部分代理人自发宣导预 定利率下调推动保费当期兑现,各险企 6 月单月保费增速在高基数下 全面转正,优于市场预期。其中平安保费增速高于同业,预计主因同 685689 比基数相对较低。展望未来,虽然去年同期高基数,但是受益于部分 公司代理人自发宣导预定利率下调、银保渠道合作网点数量的放开等, 上半年新单及新业务价值增速有望优于市 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 22.89 CNY per share based on a 15x PE for 2024 [11][17]. Core Insights - The company is expected to show stable performance in the first half of 2024, with a significant increase in Q2 compared to Q1. The projected net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024H1 is estimated to be between 350 million to 450 million CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 66.0% to 113.4% [9][11]. - The outsourcing business is expected to support growth resilience, with ongoing digital transformation efforts enhancing quality and efficiency. The company has built a strong client base and is likely to deepen customer value through cross-selling [9][11]. - Profit forecasts indicate net profits attributable to the parent company for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 860 million, 963 million, and 1.07 billion CNY respectively, reflecting a robust growth trajectory [9][11]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2022 was 32.34 billion CNY, with a projected increase to 38.31 billion CNY in 2023, and further growth to 45.96 billion CNY in 2024, indicating a growth rate of 18.5% [11][14]. - The EBITDA for 2024 is expected to be 1.71 billion CNY, with a net profit of 864 million CNY, showing a significant increase from previous years [11][14]. - The report highlights a strong return on equity (ROE) forecasted to reach 12.6% by 2024, up from 9.1% in 2023 [11][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A and H shares of the company [5]. Core Views - The company plans to issue convertible bonds worth $3.5 billion, maturing in 2029, with a coupon rate of 0.875%, which will only convert into H shares [3][4]. - The issuance of convertible bonds is expected to enhance the company's solvency ratio under the new solvency regulations, thereby reducing capital pressure for strategic development [3]. - The company aims to strengthen its competitive advantage in integrated financial services and healthcare, with a significant portion of new business value (NBV) coming from clients utilizing healthcare services [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected at CNY 5.13, CNY 5.77, and CNY 6.35 respectively, with a reasonable valuation of CNY 56.5 per A share and HKD 52.6 per H share [3][5]. Financial Summary - The company reported a net profit of CNY 85.665 billion for 2023, with a projected increase to CNY 93.374 billion in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 9% [4]. - The embedded value for 2024 is estimated at CNY 1,474.273 million, indicating a growth rate of 6.05% compared to 2023 [4]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 9.53% in 2023 to 10.02% in 2024 [4].

[Table_Page] 行业专题研究|计算机 2024 年 7 月 16 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 计算机行业 医疗 IT 订单跟踪:24 年 1-6 月订单呈现稳健平缓的增长态势 [Tabl e_Author] 分析师: 刘雪峰 SAC 执证号:S0260514030002 SFC CE.no: BNX004 021-38003675 gfliuxuefeng@gf.com.cn [Table_Summary] 核心观点: ⚫ 我们选取了 11 家 A 股上市医疗信息化公司,从中国招标网(www.bidchance.com)摘录订单数据,统计汇总后 进行分析。由于部分医疗信息化项目未经公开招标流程,因此公开订单往往少于实际订单,但从历史来看,公开 统计订单的定性趋势仍有一定的参考意义。 ⚫ 从多维度看,24 年 1-6 月的公开订单相较于 23 年呈现稳健平缓的增长态势: (1) 累计订单数据:24 年 1-6 月医疗 IT 行业订单数量较去年同期有大幅增长,订单金额较去年同期稳健提升。 24 年 1-6 月,共统计医疗 IT 订单总数为 1674 单,较上年同期 1188 单约增长 ...

[Table_Page] 投资策略周报|机械设备 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 机械设备行业 船舶产业链业绩超预期,社融偏弱内需静待复苏 [Table_Summary] 核心观点: ⚫ 央行 6 月金融统计数据显示,6 月新增社融 3.3 万亿,同比少增 0.9 万 亿,新增人民币贷款 2.13 万亿,同比少增约 9200 亿,其中,企业中 长贷新增 9700 亿,同比少增 6233 亿,3 个月滚动同比增速下降到- 38%。企业中长贷少增规模偏高,部分源于同期高基数和监管要求,也 反映了实体融资需求有待提振。 ⚫ 市场表现分析:上周(7 月 8 日-7 月 12 日)机械行业指数(中信)上 涨 1.59%,沪深 300 指数上涨 1.20%,创业板指上涨 1.94%。 ⚫ 机械动态变化:造船行业 6 月订单公布。根据 Clarksons,截至 7 月 14 日,6 月全球新接订单金额口径同比-41.9%,其中散货/油轮/集装箱 /LNG/LPG 船同比-69.61%/-19.28 %/-53.05%/-100.00%/-43.18%。今 年以来全球累计新船订单金额同比+21.40%,油轮、气体船 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [3] Core Viewpoints - The policy environment is positive, with a focus on integrated vehicle-road-cloud systems in 2024, promoting the large-scale application of high-level autonomous vehicles [10][17] - The supply side shows a rapid decline in unit costs for Robotaxi, with potential for future profitability. The cost of Baidu's sixth-generation unmanned vehicle has dropped to approximately 250,000 yuan [10][28] - Consumer demand is strong, with over 60% of surveyed individuals expressing interest in experiencing Robotaxi services, indicating a favorable market outlook [10][37] Summary by Sections Policy and Technology - The government has placed the intelligent connected vehicle industry at a strategic level, with significant policy support aimed at promoting the application of L3 and L4 autonomous vehicles [10][17] - The integrated vehicle-road-cloud system is expected to enhance the safety and efficiency of autonomous driving, with pilot projects set to launch in major cities [10][19] Supply Side - The cost of high-level autonomous driving components, such as LiDAR, has significantly decreased, with prices dropping from 22,500 yuan in 2020 to 3,700 yuan in 2023 [24][28] - The unit cost of Robotaxi has been optimized to around 250,000 yuan, benefiting from the declining costs of core components [10][28] Demand Side - Consumer interest in Robotaxi services is high, with a significant portion of the population willing to try the service, provided safety is assured [10][37] - The pricing of Robotaxi services will be crucial for consumer adoption, with many potential users indicating they would only switch if prices are competitive with traditional ride-hailing services [10][39] Investment Recommendations - Focus on three main investment lines: 1. Robotaxi operators such as Baidu and 如祺出行, which are expected to see new growth opportunities [2] 2. Key component and service suppliers in the Robotaxi industry, including 德赛西威 and 中科创达 [2] 3. Companies involved in the integrated vehicle-road-cloud system, such as 金溢科技 and 万集科技 [2]

Xm l [Table_Page] 深度分析|专业服务 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 专业服务行业 人服行业:逐鹿万亿市场,龙头砥砺前行 [Table_Summary] 核心观点: ⚫ 万亿人服市场持续快速增长,顺周期属性明显。根据人社部数据,截至 2022 年底,我国共有各类人力资源服务机构 6.3 万家,从业人员 104.2 万人,2022 年人力资源服务机构营业收入总规模达到 2.5 万亿元, 2016-2022 年 CAGR 为 13.2%,主要受益于我国产业结构不断优化以 及民营经济快速发展,就业市场结构与人才结构均不断变化。同时行业 具有较强顺周期属性,人才需求通常跟随宏观经济形势变化从而影响 人服行业景气度。 ⚫ 复盘海外龙头,外延与国际化发展路径具备代表性。我们通过复盘全 球前三大人服龙头 Ranstand、Adecco、Recruit 发展历程发现,通过 外延方式实现业务范围扩张以及积极开拓国际化版图是现有全球化龙 头的普遍发展路径,根据 SIA 数据结合各公司财报计算,三者 2023 年 在全球人力资源行业市场份额分别为 5%、4%、4%。 ⚫ 国内人服市场竞争格局分散仍有较大 ...

商业模式 [Table_Contacts] l [Table_Page] 深度分析|专业服务 证券研究报告 Xm [Table_Title] 专业服务行业 人服行业：逐鹿万亿市场，龙头砥砺前行 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 万亿人服市场持续快速增长，顺周期属性明显。根据人社部数据，截至 2022 年底，我国共有各类人力资源服务机构 6.3 万家，从业人员 104.2 万人，2022 年人力资源服务机构营业收入总规模达到 2.5 万亿元， 2016-2022 年 CAGR 为 13.2%，主要受益于我国产业结构不断优化以 及民营经济快速发展，就业市场结构与人才结构均不断变化。同时行业 具有较强顺周期属性，人才需求通常跟随宏观经济形势变化从而影响 人服行业景气度。 ⚫ 复盘海外龙头，外延与国际化发展路径具备代表性。我们通过复盘全 球前三大人服龙头 Ranstand、Adecco、Recruit 发展历程发现，通过 外延方式实现业务范围扩张以及积极开拓国际化版图是现有全球化龙 头的普遍发展路径，根据 SIA 数据结合各公司财报计算，三者 2023 年 在全球人力资源行业市场份额分别为 5%、4%、 ...

[Table_Page] 公告点评|煤炭开采 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 山西焦煤(000983.SZ) 预告 Q2 扣非业绩中枢环比增长 13%,资源和分红具备优势 [Table_Summary] 核心观点: 预告 Q2 扣非业绩中枢 10.1 亿元,环比增长 13%。公司发布中期业绩 预告,上半年预计实现归母净利润 17.2-22.6 亿元,同比下降 50%- 62%;扣非归母净利润 16.4-21.8 亿元,同比下降 52%-64%。其中 Q2 预计实现归母净利润 7.7-13.1 亿元,同比下降 36%-62%,环比下降 19%-增长 38%;扣非归母净利润 7.4-12.9 亿元,同比下降 37%-64%, 环比下降 17%-增长 44%。主要原因是:公司所属部分矿井受安全事故 等因素影响停产限产,煤炭产品产量和销量同比下降,同时商品煤综合 售价同比下降、煤炭资源税税率提高等原因,导致公司煤炭板块利润同 比下降。随着煤炭安全生产和提质增效工作力度加大,二季度单季煤炭 产品产量和销量环比降幅收窄,盈利能力逐步回升。 Q3 焦煤长协价环比持平,24 年以来产地焦煤长协均价较 23 年小幅上 ...