[Table_Title] 证券Ⅱ行业 7 月基金新发遇冷，赎回压力仍大但有所缓解 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 概览：7 月新成立基金 83 只，新发基金份额同环比下滑。据 Wind 统 计，以基金成立日口径统计，2024 年 7 月新成立基金 83 只，环比下 跌 30%，同比上涨 2%；该月新发行份额为 539.70 亿份，环比下滑 69%，同比下滑 11%。 7 月新发基金环比缩窄，债基下滑幅度较大。7 月新发基金中，债券型 基金发行 25 只，发行份额达 389.58 亿份，环比下降 74.46%，占新发 基金截止日份额的 72.18%，相较于今年 5、6 月有所下降。股票型基 金发行 30 只，发行份额达 54.03 亿份，受年初至今股票型基金份额基 数较高影响，7 月股票型基金发行份额环比下降 48.59%，占新发基金 截止日份额的 10.01%。股票+混合型基金新发份额为 87.87 亿份，环 比下滑 55.60%。2024 年 7 月两市成交额在 7210 亿元，去到近三年 相对低位，一定程度上打击新发基金及股基认购热情。目前，投资者避 险需求仍较为旺盛，一段时间内指数化工 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a current price of $3.15 and a reasonable value of $5.62 per ADS [1][2]. Core Views - The report anticipates that the company's revenue for Q2 2024 will be 7.4 billion RMB, representing a year-over-year decline of 5% and a quarter-over-quarter decline of 7%. The Non-GAAP net profit is expected to be 234 million RMB, down 61% year-over-year and 72% quarter-over-quarter, primarily due to underperformance in content playback and competition from other platforms [2][5]. - Membership revenue is projected to be 4.8 billion RMB, down 8% year-over-year and 6% quarter-over-quarter, while advertising revenue is expected to be 1.4 billion RMB, down 4% year-over-year and 3% quarter-over-quarter [3][5]. - The report highlights that the company has a rich content pipeline for Q3, which is expected to drive performance recovery in subsequent quarters [5][8]. Summary by Sections Q2 2024 Performance Outlook - Expected revenue: 74 billion RMB, YoY -5%, QoQ -7% - Non-GAAP net profit: 2.34 billion RMB, YoY -61%, QoQ -72% - Membership revenue: 48 billion RMB, YoY -8%, QoQ -6% - Advertising revenue: 14 billion RMB, YoY -4%, QoQ -3% [2][3][5]. Q3 Content Pipeline - The company has a strong content reserve, with successful shows like "唐朝诡事录之西行" leading to high viewership. Upcoming diverse content is expected to boost performance in the latter half of the year [5][8]. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Adjusted revenue forecasts for 2024-2025 are 30.9 billion RMB and 33.2 billion RMB, with corresponding growth rates of -3% and 7%. Membership revenue is expected to reach 19 billion RMB and 20.7 billion RMB in 2024-2025, with growth rates of -7% and 9% [8][10]. - The report anticipates Non-GAAP net profits of 27.66 billion RMB and 35.09 billion RMB for 2024 and 2025, respectively, and maintains a "Buy" rating based on a 14x PE valuation for 2024 [10][12].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of $24.71 per ADS and HKD 192.56 per share [1][5][9]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve total revenue of RMB 61.31 billion in Q2 2024, representing a year-over-year growth of 16% and a quarter-over-quarter growth of 8%. This growth is driven by strong performance in advertising and gaming sectors [1][5]. - The gross margin is projected to reach 29.6% in Q2 2024, an increase of 6 percentage points year-over-year and 1 percentage point quarter-over-quarter [1][5]. - The launch of the game "Three Kingdoms: Strategy" has positively impacted gaming performance, with expectations for significant contributions to revenue in the second half of 2024 and into 2025 [3][5][9]. Revenue Forecast - The company anticipates total revenue growth of 20% in 2024 and 16% in 2025, reaching RMB 270 billion and RMB 312 billion, respectively [5][9]. - Advertising revenue is expected to grow by 30% in 2024 and 23% in 2025, while live streaming and value-added services (VAS) are projected to grow by 15% in both years [6][9]. - Gaming revenue is forecasted to increase by 33% in 2024 and 9% in 2025, driven by new game launches and sustained user engagement [6][9]. Profitability Outlook - The adjusted net loss for Q2 2024 is expected to be RMB 3.4 billion, with a continuous narrowing of losses compared to previous quarters [1][5]. - The report predicts that the company's gross margin will improve to 31% in 2024 and 33% in 2025, reflecting a shift towards higher-margin revenue streams [9]. - Non-GAAP net profit is projected to reach RMB -622 million in 2024 and RMB 1.549 billion in 2025, indicating a path towards profitability [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for TCL Smart Home is "Accumulate" with a current price of 8.75 CNY and a fair value of 11.06 CNY [2]. Core Views - The report highlights strong external sales and structural improvements driving profit growth. The company is expected to achieve significant revenue and profit increases in the coming years, with a projected net profit of 9.2 billion CNY in 2024, growing to 11.4 billion CNY by 2026 [5][6]. Financial Summary - **Revenue (CNY million)**: - 2022A: 11,663 - 2023A: 15,180 (YoY +30.1%) - 2024E: 17,418 (YoY +14.7%) - 2025E: 19,401 (YoY +11.4%) - 2026E: 21,341 (YoY +10.0%) [5][7] - **Net Profit (CNY million)**: - 2022A: 464 - 2023A: 787 (YoY +69.4%) - 2024E: 923 (YoY +17.3%) - 2025E: 1,033 (YoY +11.9%) - 2026E: 1,144 (YoY +10.8%) [5][7] - **EBITDA (CNY million)**: - 2022A: 1,254 - 2023A: 1,993 - 2024E: 2,413 - 2025E: 2,756 - 2026E: 3,046 [5][7] - **EPS (CNY/share)**: - 2022A: 0.43 - 2023A: 0.73 - 2024E: 0.85 - 2025E: 0.95 - 2026E: 1.06 [5][7] - **P/E Ratio**: - 2022A: 12.35 - 2023A: 9.05 - 2024E: 10.28 - 2025E: 9.19 - 2026E: 8.29 [5][7] - **ROE (%)**: - 2022A: 47.9% - 2023A: 55.6% - 2024E: 38.4% - 2025E: 30.1% - 2026E: 25.0% [5][7] Business Performance - The company reported a revenue of 8.96 billion CNY in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 24.7%, with a net profit of 560 million CNY, up 32.7% YoY. The gross margin was 23.0% [5]. - The external sales showed high growth, with the refrigeration business achieving a revenue of 7.61 billion CNY, up 21.7% YoY, and washing machines seeing a revenue increase of 46.3% YoY [5]. - The report indicates that the improvement in product structure has contributed to overall profit enhancement, with a significant increase in the proportion of external sales [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 34.70 CNY per share, compared to the current price of 29.61 CNY [4]. Core Insights - The company, Angel Yeast (600298.SH), reported a revenue of 7.175 billion CNY for H1 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.86%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 691 million CNY, up 3.21% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 596 million CNY, down 2.50% [2][3]. - In Q2 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 3.692 billion CNY, reflecting an 11.31% year-on-year growth, and a net profit of 372 million CNY, which is a 17.26% increase year-on-year [2]. - Domestic demand has improved, and overseas expansion continues, with Q2 2024 domestic and overseas revenues at 2.211 billion CNY and 1.454 billion CNY, respectively, showing increases of 6.64% and 19.01% year-on-year [2]. - The company’s product segments showed varied performance, with yeast and deep processing products generating 2.670 billion CNY in revenue, up 12.24% year-on-year, while the sugar and packaging segments saw declines [2]. Financial Forecast - The revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 15.020 billion CNY, 16.595 billion CNY, and 18.268 billion CNY, with year-on-year growth rates of 10.59%, 10.49%, and 10.08%, respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 1.370 billion CNY, 1.548 billion CNY, and 1.747 billion CNY for the same period, with growth rates of 7.87%, 12.98%, and 12.87% [2][3]. - The report estimates a PE ratio of 19, 17, and 15 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 34.01 CNY per share, indicating an expected strong performance relative to the market over the next 12 months [3][10]. Core Views - The company reported a solid revenue growth of 15.1% year-on-year for the first half of 2024, achieving a revenue of 2.763 billion CNY and a net profit of 629 million CNY, which is a 15.5% increase [1]. - The product mix is continuously optimized, with significant growth in anesthetic products, which generated 1.522 billion CNY in revenue, reflecting a 20.0% increase [1]. - The company is focusing on the central nervous system market and increasing R&D investments, with over 20 innovative drug projects currently in development [1]. Financial Summary - For the first half of 2024, the company achieved a net cash flow from operating activities of 622 million CNY, a substantial increase of 39.5% [1]. - The company’s sales expenses increased by 6.0% to 830 million CNY, while the sales expense ratio decreased by 2.8 percentage points to 36.7% of formulation revenue [1]. - The forecasted EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 1.22 CNY, 1.45 CNY, and 1.74 CNY per share, respectively, with a projected net profit growth rate of 18.8% in 2024 [2][1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 21.70 CNY, compared to the current price of 19.80 CNY [3]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.618 billion CNY for the first half of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 1.35%, while achieving a net profit of 350 million CNY, marking a return to profitability. The non-recurring net profit was 339 million CNY, up 14.53% year-on-year, aligning with the forecasted levels [2]. - The company is undergoing channel reforms while facing short-term demand pressures. In Q2 2024, revenue from the main product line, Meiwai Xian, was 1.095 billion CNY, down 12.12% year-on-year, primarily due to weak industry demand and intensified competition [2]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its distribution channels and managing expenses, with a net profit margin of 9.00% in Q2 2024, down 2.81 percentage points due to increased expense ratios [2]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 5.476 billion CNY, 6.227 billion CNY, and 7.111 billion CNY, reflecting growth rates of 6.55%, 13.72%, and 14.19% respectively [2]. - The forecasted net profit for the same period is 725 million CNY, 919 million CNY, and 1.113 billion CNY, with year-on-year changes of -57.30%, +26.77%, and +21.20% respectively [2]. - The company expects Meiwai Xian's revenue to grow from 5.322 billion CNY in 2024 to 7.032 billion CNY in 2026, with corresponding net profits of 700 million CNY, 912 million CNY, and 1.107 billion CNY [2].

[Table_Title] 电力设备行业 新型电力系统行动方案印发，关注新能源消纳创新方向 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 事件：8 月 6 日（7 月 25 日成文），国家发展改革委、国家能源局、国 家数据局联合印发《加快构建新型电力系统行动方案（2024-2027 年）》， 为新型电力系统建设层面的总纲性文件。 文件印证"新能源发展再提速，倒逼消纳建设超预期"投资思路。根据 国家能源局，23 年我国风光新增装机 293GW，同比+138%；24 年消 纳压力明显提升，但 H1 风光新增装机达 129GW，同比+27%。本次文 件印证我们对 24 年"新能源发展再提速，倒逼消纳建设超预期"判断。 新型电力系统建设逐渐迈入深水区，文件旨在总体推进，加强创新探索。 ①重点开展 9 项专项行动，覆盖源网荷储各环节。②要求在关键环节取 得突破，选取攻关收益高、提效潜力大、引领效应强的方向开展探索。 发文单位新增国家数据局，电力信息化数字化发展力度有望提升。①算 力与电力协同。开展算力、电力基础设施协同规划布局；提高数据中心 绿电占比。②推动新能源汽车融入新型电力系统。加强充电网络建设。 主干网：优化补强 ...

[Table_I 重要mportant 声明Notices] 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 3 / 4 [Table_PageText] 贵州茅台|中报点评 广发证券股份有限公司及其关联机构可能与本报告中提及的公司寻求或正在建立业务关系，因此，投资者应当考虑广发证券股份有限公司 及其关联机构因可能存在的潜在利益冲突而对本报告的独立性产生影响。投资者不应仅依据本报告内容作出任何投资决策。投资者应自主 作出投资决策并自行承担投资风险，任何形式的分享证券投资收益或者分担证券投资损失的书面或者口头承诺均为无效。 本报告署名研究人员、联系人（以下均简称"研究人员"）针对本报告中相关公司或证券的研究分析内容，在此声明：（1）本报告的全部 分析结论、研究观点均精确反映研究人员于本报告发出当日的关于相关公司或证券的所有个人观点，并不代表广发证券的立场；（2）研究 人员的部分或全部的报酬无论在过去、现在还是将来均不会与本报告所述特定分析结论、研究观点具有直接或间接的联系。 研究人员制作本报告的报酬标准依据研究质量、客户评价、工作量等多种因素确定，其影响因素亦包括广发证券的整体经营收入，该等经 营收入部分来源于广 ...

[Table_Title] 工程机械行业跟踪 内销温和复苏，海外值得期待 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 挖机内销连续保持双位数增长，开工率保持在旺季水平。根据工程机 械协会，24 年 7 月中国挖掘机销量 13690 台，yoy +8.6%，其中挖机 内销 6234 台，yoy+21.9%，内销连续 4 个月保持两位数增长，下游需 求温和复苏。开工率数据亦能交叉验证，根据工程机械协会，24 年 6 月，纳入统计的 12 种工程机械月平均工作时长为 86 小时，月平均开 工率为 66.4%，相比 3-4 月的旺季基本持平，今年出现了淡季不淡的 特征。我们认为，复苏动力主要来源于：（1）广义基建的持续发力；（2） 各省份设备更新持续兑现；（3）基数逐渐下降基数效应显现。 ⚫ 挖机出口逐渐收窄到零附近，装载机仍保持较高增速。根据工程机械 协会数据，24 年 7 月中国挖掘机出口 7456 台，yoy-0.5%，降幅持续 收窄。我们认为，海外的库存消纳短期影响了挖机出口数据，企业的 海外经营情况实际上好于表观出口增速，随着海外库存水位的下降， 未来出口有望呈现加速。非挖品类表现依然亮眼，24 年 7 ...