Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Insights - The continuation of local vehicle trade-in subsidy policies in 2025 is expected to boost consumer confidence and stabilize the automotive market, aiding in maintaining growth in annual sales [4][15] - Over 30 automotive companies have introduced promotional offers to attract consumers during the policy transition period, which may lead to increased sales [4][15] - The automotive sector has underperformed compared to the broader market, with a decline of 7.4% in the automotive sector from December 30, 2024, to January 3, 2025, compared to a 5.2% decline in the CSI 300 index [16][21] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Topic: Continuation of Local Trade-in Subsidy Policies - The State Council confirmed the continuation of trade-in activities in 2025, with specific policies to be announced soon [3][14] - Local governments, including Beijing, have announced the continuation of trade-in subsidies, with details pending [3][14] 2. Market Performance 2.1 Sector Performance - The automotive sector declined by 7.4% from December 30, 2024, to January 3, 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.2 percentage points [16] - Year-to-date, the automotive sector has decreased by 5.5%, ranking 23rd among 31 sectors [16] 2.2 Stock Performance - Top five gainers include Shanzi Co., Construction Industry, Chuanhuan Technology, Hunan Tianyan, and Chengfei Integration [30] - Bottom five losers include Wanfeng Aowei, Kabeiyi, Jinlong Automobile, Tianqimo, and Zhongma Transmission [30] 3. Key Industry Data 3.1 Weekly Data from the Passenger Car Association - From December 1 to 22, 2024, retail sales of passenger cars reached 1.692 million units, a year-on-year increase of 25% [33] - New energy passenger car retail sales during the same period were 817,000 units, up 60% year-on-year [33] 3.2 Automotive Sales Data - In November, total automotive sales reached 3.316 million units, with a year-on-year increase of 11.7% [35] - From January to November, total automotive sales were 27.94 million units, a 3.7% increase year-on-year [35] 4. Industry News - The China Electric Vehicle Hundred People’s Association predicts that new energy vehicle sales will reach approximately 16.5 million units in 2025, with a growth rate close to 30% [56] - The Beijing Autonomous Driving Vehicle Regulations were passed and will take effect on April 1, 2025 [56]

行 业 华福证券 钢铁 2025 年 01 月 05 日 研 究 钢铁 钢铁行业周报（12.30-1.3）加力扩围实施"两新" 多家钢厂密集披露冬储政策 投资要点： 本周钢材市场回顾 行 业 定 期 报 告 本周黑色系市场走势冲高回落，淡季基本面走弱，原料端矛盾累积拖累钢 价，产业端出现补库信号，但冬储情绪仍然不高。1）开工冶炼方面：本周样 本钢厂高炉和电炉开工率继续下降，日均铁水产量降至 225.2 万吨，周环比 -2.67 万吨。2）成材产消方面：本周五大品种钢材产量 829.6 万吨，周环比 -1.64%/同比-5.34%，其中螺纹和热轧产量均有下降；钢材消费量 823.3 万吨， 周环比-3.43%/同比-3.21%，其中螺纹消费下滑幅度达到 10.16%。3）钢材库存 方面：五大品种钢材库存下降至 1,115.7 吨，周环比+0.57%/同比-18.21%，五 大品种钢材库存触底回升，钢厂库存小幅下降，社库补库开启。 上下游产业链情况 1）铁矿石：上周澳洲和巴西铁矿石发运 2,938 万吨，周环比+18.5%；铁 矿石到港量 2,505 万吨，周环比+17.2%。本周日均疏港量 318 万吨，周环比 ...

电子 2025 年 01 月 05 日 行 业 研 究 电子 重视 HBM 扩产带动产业链机遇，关注 CES 大会 -半导体周跟踪 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 本周 A 股半导体高位回落，费城半导体指数走强。（1）全行业指数： 本周（1230-0103）申万半导体指数大跌 10.63%，费城半导体指数逆转颓势， 上涨 2.73%。本周（1230-0103）半导体成交额占 A 股整体成交额比重为 5%， 绝对值和占比均较上周下跌较大。（2）细分板块：与全行业指数趋势相仿， 本周各细分板块股价均大幅下跌，设备、材料、封测、数字芯片、模拟芯 片分别-9.37%/-10.17%/-12.84%/-10.75%/-12.62%。本周收盘 A 股半导体材 料、设备、封测、设计板块对应 25 年 PE 下降严重，分别降至 42、56、30、 63 倍。 CES 大会开幕在即，除了 AI 眼镜竞技外，英伟达 RTX 50 系列值得 一观。一年一度的科技春晚 CES 即将在 2025 年 1 月 7 日—10 日于美国拉 斯维加斯拉开帷幕。各家 PC、汽车头部厂商蓄势待发，AI 眼镜更是百花 齐放，成为本次 CES 大 ...

行 业 华福证券 煤炭 2025 年 01 月 05 日 研 究 煤炭 年底供给减少&供暖需求改善，煤价开启反弹 投资要点： 动力煤 行 业 定 期 报 告 截至 2025 年 1 月 3 日，秦港 5500K 动力末煤平仓价 767 元/吨， 周环比+9 元/吨（+1.2%），企稳反弹开启。产地价格大涨，晋陕蒙三 省煤矿开工率为 82.1%，周环比-1.2pct。本周电厂日耗小涨，电厂、港 口库存小跌，煤企库存微涨；非电方面，甲醇、尿素开工率小涨，仍 处于历史同期偏高水平，截至 1 月 2 日，甲醇开工率为 86.4%，周环 比+1.4pct，年同比+5.1pct；截至 1 月 1 日，尿素开工率为 79.0%，周 环比+1.3pct，年同比+5.9pct。 焦煤 截至 1 月 3 日，京唐港主焦煤库提价 1520 元/吨，环比持平，产地 价格小跌。当前处开工淡季，铁水产量环比小跌，样本钢厂煤焦库存 微涨，随着一揽子政策陆续落地，焦煤价格无需悲观。本周焦炭价格 小跌、螺纹钢价格持平，截至 1 月 3 日，山西临汾一级冶金焦出厂价 1650 元/吨，环比持平，螺纹钢现货价格 3350 元，环比持平，焦炭第 五 ...

投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 贵金属：美12月如期降息25BP，但点阵图中值显示降息有放缓趋势。 美联储12月如期降息25BP，但12月点阵图中值显示，美联储预期2025年将 降息两次，每次25个基点，打压周内贵金属价格出现回调。短期来看，特 朗普交易仍未完全消退，市场对未来经济滞涨担忧仍在，预计贵金属价格 震荡为主；中长期角度来看，全球主要经济体货币政策方向明确，东欧及 朝鲜半岛等地缘冲突仍将凸显贵金属避险属性，中国央行11月增持黄金， 贵金属中长期配置价值不改。个股：黄金建议关注中金黄金、紫金矿业、 山东黄金、赤峰黄金，低估弹性关注株冶集团和玉龙股份，其他关注银泰 黄金、湖南黄金及招金矿业；白银建议关注兴业银锡、银泰黄金、盛达资 源。 证 券 研 究 工业金属：继国内铜库存两周连增之后有望出现反转，宏观面或将继 续压制铜价。铜，供给端，本周进口铜矿TC均价下跌至7美元/吨，据百川 盈孚，24和25年全球铜精矿供需缺口或分别为21.2和82.2万金属吨。巨龙 铜矿新增二期20万吨/日（一期15万吨/日）扩建工程加紧建设，力争2025 年底投产。需求端，整体来看，当前需求虽表现尚可，且年前被压制的需 求 ...

行 华福证券 公用事业 2025 年 01 月 05 日 业 研 究 公用事业 周报（12.30-1.3）：绿证、绿电、绿氢，十五五 双碳谋新篇 投资要点： 行情回顾：12 月 30 日-1 月 3 日，电力、环保、燃气、水务板块分别下跌 5.15%、 7.56%、2.51%、6.02%，同期沪深 300 指数下跌 5.17%。 行 业 定 期 报 告 对已建档立卡的集中可再生能源，基本完成 22 年中至今电量绿证核发全覆 盖：2024 年上半年，国家能源局核发绿证 4.86 亿个，同比增长 13 倍。截至 2024 年 11 月，全国累计核发绿证 47.56 亿个。自 2024 年 6 月 30 日正式启用国家绿证 核发交易系统以后，绿证核发数量增势迅猛。2024 年 10-11 月绿证核发数维持在 12 亿个左右，对应 1.2 万亿千瓦时的可再生能源电量，高位运行。7-11 月（5 个月） 核发的绿证数量累计约 40.50 亿个，是上半年（6 个月）核发绿证数的 8.33 倍。《国 家能源局综合司关于进一步做好可再生能源发电项目建档立卡有关工作的通知》提 出，切实把建档立卡工作抓细抓实抓到位，对已并网的项 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [8] Core Insights - The fourth generation of gene sequencing technology is gaining traction, with significant advantages in cost, accuracy, and speed, positioning it to become mainstream by 2030, with the market expected to exceed 100 billion [4][19] - The report emphasizes the importance of innovation in the pharmaceutical sector, particularly in innovative drugs and medical devices, supported by favorable government policies [5][12] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The CITIC Pharmaceutical Index fell by 5.6% in the week of December 30, 2024, to January 3, 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.4 percentage points [3] - Year-to-date, the CITIC Pharmaceutical and Biotech Index has decreased by 15.7%, lagging behind the CSI 300 Index by 25.7 percentage points [3][45] Gene Sequencing Technology - The fourth generation of gene sequencing, represented by Oxford Nanopore Technologies, offers significant advantages such as ultra-long read lengths and real-time sequencing capabilities, with accuracy rates exceeding 99% [24][26] - The domestic leader, BGI Genomics, launched its nanopore sequencing instrument in September 2024, which is expected to enhance market penetration and application expansion [29] Market Trends and Opportunities - The report highlights the potential for the gene sequencing market to grow from 48.7 billion yuan in 2025 to 153.6 billion yuan by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 25.8% [19] - The approval of the first domestic stem cell therapy drug is seen as a positive development for innovative therapies in the pharmaceutical sector [5] Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on three main investment themes: innovation, recovery, and policy support, with a particular emphasis on innovative drugs and medical devices [5][12] - Recommended stocks include Heng Rui Medicine, Huada Gene, and Kangwei Century, among others, which are expected to benefit from these trends [6][12]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 months [13]. Core Insights - The opening of the Jidongyuan High-Speed Railway, which connects Inner Mongolia and Shanxi Province, marks a significant development in the rail transport network, with a total length of 309 kilometers and a design speed of 250 kilometers per hour [3][4]. - The China National Railway Group aims to achieve a passenger volume of 4.28 billion, a cargo volume of 4.03 billion tons, and a total revenue of 1,016 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth of 4.9%, 1.1%, and 2.6% respectively compared to the previous year [4]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" outlines a target of 165,000 kilometers of railway operating mileage by 2025, with high-speed rail reaching 50,000 kilometers, and a long-term goal of 200,000 kilometers by 2035, which is expected to create vast market opportunities for the rail transit equipment industry [5]. Summary by Sections Industry Development - The Jidongyuan High-Speed Railway enhances connectivity between key regions, significantly reducing travel times, such as a 40-minute journey from Ulanqab to Datong South Station [3]. - The railway network's expansion is supported by national policies aimed at increasing infrastructure investment and promoting green development [4][5]. Investment Opportunities - Recommended companies include: 1. China CNR: A leading global supplier of rail transit equipment, maintaining a strong market position [5]. 2. China Railway Signal & Communication Corp: A top provider of rail transit control systems [5]. 3. Times Electric: A leading supplier of traction and conversion systems, consistently leading the domestic market [5]. 4. Sifang Control: A core supplier in the field of high-speed rail monitoring [5]. 5. Shenzhou High-Speed Rail: A leading enterprise in intelligent operation and maintenance equipment for rail transit [5]. 6. Huizhong Technology: Provides integrated solutions for rail transit operation and maintenance [5].

行 业 研 究 食品饮料 2025 年 01 月 05 日 食品饮料 旺季来临，催化不断 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 【白酒】从基本面上来看，虽然政策端目前积极推出利好政策，稳增长举 措积极，助力经济修复的信号明显，但需求的恢复不能一蹴而就，宏观各 项政策落地带来的效果需要时间去陆续显现，短期内白酒板块的量价压力 仍在。白酒作为顺周期板块，预期带动估值修复往往先于基本面。从估值 端来看，目前白酒板块虽较 Q2 极低位置有所修复，但从历史估值来看仍 处于较低水平，安全边际足够。建议关注茅台、五粮液、老窖、舍得酒 业。 【啤酒】重点推荐高端化核心标的青岛啤酒、提效改革叠加大单品逻辑的 燕京啤酒。 【软饮料】建议关注：1）功能饮料赛道龙头且逐步探索出第二增长曲线的 东鹏饮料；2）基本面具备积极预期的香飘飘。 【预调酒】重点推荐预调酒行业龙头百润股份，历史行情通常为大单品所 驱动的 PE 扩张，11 月 19 号，公司威士忌正式上市，当前公司 25 年 PE 为 30 倍上下，我们认为具备较大赔率。 【乳制品】重点推荐利润导向明显的全国乳企巨头伊利股份，关注其产品 结构优化带来的毛利率改善情况以及费用率投放情 ...

证券研究报告|行业投资策略 能源开采 行业评级 强于大市（维持评级） 2025年1月4日 4、投资建议：1）供需：预期2025年供给增量有限且不确定性增大、火电有望边际改善，非电企稳，煤炭供需格局预计相较于 2023-2024年小幅改善。2）煤价：2025年预计动力煤中枢价格基本持平；焦煤中枢价格或微降，一季度或出现年内低点。3）建 议关注：考虑到动力煤价格整体较为平稳，优先配置资源禀赋强、成本控制得当、长协比例较高且高股息品种，如中国神华、 陕西煤业、中煤能源；待煤价底部确立则可加大估值具备优势且具有成长性煤企的配置，如淮北矿业、山煤国际、广汇能源。 5、风险提示：国内煤炭产能释放超预期、进口煤超预期、替代电源发电量超预期、宏观经济不及预期 2025年煤炭行业投资策略 红利当先，成长其后 证券分析师： 李骥 执业证书编号：S0210524080008 联系人： 汤悦 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 华福证券 华福证券 投资要点 1、行业复盘：2024年动力煤价前高后低，焦煤价格阶梯式下滑且波幅较大。煤炭年内绝对收益为正，跑输沪深300指数。 2、供给情况：1）国内：强安监下前低后高，预计24全年原煤产量小幅增 ...