Investment Rating - The steel industry maintains a "Follow the Market" rating, indicating a stable outlook relative to the broader market [3]. Core Insights - The steel market is experiencing strong fluctuations, with supply-demand fundamentals showing stability but lacking improvement, leading to a bearish outlook [2][14]. - The profitability of steel mills remains resilient despite a slight decline in operating rates, supported by stable margins in rebar and hot-rolled steel [16]. - The upcoming winter storage season is expected to influence raw material inventory levels and market dynamics [16]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Strategy - The steel market is showing strong fluctuations, with the black commodity prices experiencing volatility due to external factors like the Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations [14]. - Daily average pig iron production slightly decreased to 2.358 million tons, while steel production increased by 0.9% week-on-week but decreased by 4.47% year-on-year [14][15]. - Steel consumption showed a week-on-week increase of 0.8% but a year-on-year decrease of 5.68%, indicating some resilience in construction materials [14]. 2. Weekly Review 2.1 Industry Performance - The steel industry outperformed the broader market, with a decline of 1.13% compared to a 2.60% drop in the CSI 300 index [19]. - The current PE (TTM) for the steel industry is 24.40, and the PB (LF) is 0.94, indicating a mid-range valuation among industries [19]. 2.2 Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the steel sector include Guangda Special Materials (+22.59%) and Wujin Stainless Steel (+9.64%), while Shagang Group saw a significant decline of -18.59% [19]. 3. Current Events 3.1 Macroeconomic Dynamics - The Chinese government has initiated a 6 trillion yuan local government debt limit, with some provinces already starting to issue bonds [50]. - Economic indicators suggest a positive trend, with retail sales and industrial output showing growth [51]. - The Federal Reserve and European Central Bank are expected to maintain cautious monetary policies, impacting global economic conditions [52][53]. 4. Steel and Product Production - The operating rates for blast furnaces and electric furnaces have decreased, with the average daily pig iron output slightly down [15]. - The production of major steel products reached 8.693 million tons, with a notable increase in wire rods and hot-rolled products [14]. 5. Iron Ore Supply and Demand - Iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil totaled 25.59 million tons, a decrease of 3.2% week-on-week, while port inventories remain high at 153.19 million tons [15]. 6. Coking Coal Supply and Demand - The operating rate of coking coal mines is at 90.93%, with inventories increasing, indicating a stable supply chain [15]. 7. Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand - Coking coal and coke inventories have risen, reflecting adjustments in production and market demand [15]. 8. Market Outlook - The steel industry is expected to navigate a phase of strong expectations versus weak realities in the fourth quarter, with a focus on policy support for demand expansion [17].

Market Insights - The market continues to adjust, with the overall A-share market down by 2.08%. The trading volume increased from 1.796 trillion yuan on Monday to 1.832 trillion yuan on Friday, indicating a narrowing of previous trading volumes but not the main reason for the adjustment [2][14][15] - Major indices have experienced two consecutive weeks of decline, with the CSI 1000 and CSI 500 indices suffering heavier losses compared to the CSI Dividend index. The technology and financial real estate sectors faced significant setbacks, while cyclical and advanced manufacturing sectors saw smaller declines [2][14][15] - Geopolitical tensions, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and North Korea's military threats, have suppressed market risk appetite. The market is currently in a policy and earnings vacuum, making it susceptible to external disturbances [2][14][15] Market Observation - The stock-bond yield spread has risen to 1.21%, positioned between +1 and +2 standard deviations, with a decrease in the valuation dispersion coefficient by 8.6% [3][22] - Market sentiment has contracted, with the five-dimensional market sentiment index decreasing by 35.9% to 32.9. The industry rotation intensity has increased, indicating a preference for small-cap stocks, particularly in lithium battery electrolyte and state-owned enterprises [3][23] - Trading volume has decreased, with textile and apparel, banking, and basic chemicals showing a higher proportion of bullish stocks. There are potential alpha opportunities within the basic chemicals, public utilities, and automotive sectors [3][26] Industry Highlights - The 2024 World Internet Conference was held in Wuzhen, focusing on artificial intelligence, which is a key driver of new productive forces. Investment opportunities are suggested across the AI industry chain, from upstream chip manufacturing to downstream applications [4][45] - The Shanghai Municipal Transportation Commission issued a plan to enhance low-altitude flight service management, which is expected to benefit the low-altitude economy. Investment opportunities are highlighted in low-altitude aircraft manufacturing and related infrastructure [4][46] - New regulations in the photovoltaic manufacturing sector aim to optimize supply-side dynamics, encouraging technological innovation and quality improvement while addressing overcapacity challenges [4][47] Industry Configuration - The report suggests focusing on mergers and acquisitions, debt restructuring, sustained demand growth, and turnaround opportunities in the current market vacuum. Structural opportunities remain due to significant trading volumes [4][50] - Increased policy support for mergers and acquisitions is anticipated, promoting industry integration and market capitalization management [4][50] - The third-quarter earnings report period has concluded, leading to a performance vacuum. Attention is drawn to sectors like non-bank financials, electronics, and machinery that may experience demand growth and potential recovery in the real estate and power equipment sectors [4][50]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the current economic policies between China and the US are highly uncertain, suggesting that this may not be the optimal window for recovery or liquidity trading [3][4][5] - Long-term trends suggest an expansion in the service sector while traditional manufacturing may contract, with initiatives like "self-control" and the Belt and Road Initiative expected to accelerate [3][4] - The report expresses a long-term positive outlook on central state-owned enterprises, the Belt and Road Initiative, O2O (Online to Offline), semiconductor equipment, and military industry, while mid-term attention is directed towards AI applications [3][4] Group 2 - In October, industrial enterprises exhibited a simultaneous decline in both volume and price, with industrial added value year-on-year at 5.3%, down 0.1 percentage points, and PPI year-on-year at -2.9%, also down 0.1 percentage points [10][11] - The mining sector's prices have significantly declined due to overseas commodity price influences, while the upstream raw material processing industry shows a mixed performance with reduced volume but increased prices in non-ferrous smelting and pharmaceutical manufacturing [10][11] - The report highlights that the overall PPI drag from downstream consumer prices is relatively light, with a notable decline in the growth rate of public utility industrial added value [10][11] Group 3 - The market review indicates a divergence in market performance, with defensive strategies currently favored [12][21] - The broad market indices experienced declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 1.91%, and the ChiNext, CSI 300, and SSE 50 showing deeper losses [14][15] - From an industry perspective, cyclical sectors experienced relatively minor declines, while technology, consumption, financial real estate, and medical healthcare sectors faced deeper losses [21][22] Group 4 - The report notes that foreign capital futures positions are showing divergence, with net short positions in IC and IM converging while IF and IH remain stable [30][34] - The upcoming week is expected to focus on the US PCE price index and China's PMI, which are critical indicators for market sentiment [35][36]

epyTtropeR_elbaT|tsriF_elbaT 华福证券 行 业 研 究 日 行 业 定 期 研 究 有色金属行业周报（11.18-11.24） 有色金属 2024 年 11 月 24 日 强于大市(维持评级) 地缘局势再度紧张，周内金价明显走强 投资要点： ➢ 贵金属：地缘局势再度紧张，周内金价明显走强。特朗普赢得美 国大选，市场担心特朗普提议的关税和移民可能会重新引发通胀，周 内随地缘局势再度紧张，俄罗斯发射洲际弹道导弹，朝鲜军队提升至 战备状态，避险情绪提振周内金价大涨。从经济层面来看，美国11月 费城联储制造业指数-5.5，低于预期的8，前值10.3。短期来看，特朗 普交易仍未完全消退，市场对未来经济滞涨担忧仍在，预计贵金属价 格震荡为主；中长期角度来看，全球主要经济体货币政策方向明确， 东欧及朝鲜半岛等地缘冲突仍将凸显贵金属避险属性，贵金属中长期 配置价值不改。个股：黄金建议关注中金黄金、紫金矿业、山东黄 金、赤峰黄金，低估弹性关注株冶集团和玉龙股份，其他关注银泰黄 金、湖南黄金及招金矿业；白银建议关注兴业银锡、银泰黄金、盛达 资源。 ➢ 工业金属：宏观扰动加剧波动，供需紧缺支撑氧化铝价格 ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperform the Market" [3] Core Insights - The Wind New Materials Index closed at 3663.52 points, down 0.17% week-on-week. Among six sub-industries, the semiconductor materials index fell by 3.08%, while the organic silicon materials index rose by 1.07% [1][11] - The global foldable smartphone market is expected to grow by 22% year-on-year in 2024, significantly outpacing the overall smartphone market growth of 5.8%. This growth is driven by improvements in design, durability, and functionality, despite high average prices [2][36] - Shanghai Pulit has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Guangzhou Lianmao and Shanghai Lunai New Materials to develop and mass-produce LCP film products for applications in electronic communications, AI servers, and new energy vehicles [2][33] Summary by Sections Overall Market Review - The Wind New Materials Index and various sub-indices experienced fluctuations, with notable declines in semiconductor and display device materials indices, while organic silicon and lithium battery indices showed slight increases [1][11] Key Company Weekly Review - Top gainers included Aok Shares (30.8%), Pulit (22.44%), and Silicon Treasure (17.96%), while top losers included Blue Sky Technology (-9.16%) and Shandong Heda (-8.65%) [28][30] Recent Industry Hotspots - Pulit signed a cooperation agreement for LCP film production [33] - Chemical giants Solvay and SABIC announced capacity expansions for polyphenylsulfone and ULTEM™ resin, respectively, to meet growing demand in various sectors [34] - Jiurich New Materials has commenced trial production of a new photolithography resin project with an annual capacity of 4500 tons [33]

华福证券 行业研 国防军工 军工本周观点：准备反攻 投资要点： 本周核心观点： 本周，国防军工指数下跌 2.78% ，同期沪深 300 指数下跌 2.6%，相对超 额-0.18pct，接连上周继续呈现回调状态，但整体走向趋于相对平稳，我们 仍旧维持上周观点，军工板块投资逻辑将从主题热度转为基本面驱动阶段， 后续静待行业需求传导落地。 细分主题领域，本周中国航空运输协会通航业务部、无人机工作委员会主 任孙卫国在论坛上透露，中央空管委即将在合肥、杭州、深圳、苏州、成 都、重庆六个城市开展 eVTOL 试点，我们认为，试点城市的确立或会加速 带动相关项目落地，看好后续低空经济细分板块表现。 资金层面，本周融资买入额相较上周有所降低，表明短期杠杆类资金对军 工行业偏好热度略有下降；被动资金也呈现小幅净流出情况，但考虑到军 工行业 2024Q4-2025 的强需求恢复预期，后续不排除重现融资买入额上升 及被动资金净流入趋势的可能。 估值层面，截至 11 月 22 日，申万军工指数五年维度看，当前市盈率 TTM （剔除负值）59.9 倍，分位数 77.56%，尽管现估值分位数处于十四五时期 以来偏高水平，但考虑到三季报披 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" for the next 6-12 months, indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% [20]. Core Viewpoints - The automotive sector is experiencing strong sales driven by policy incentives, with a notable increase in retail and wholesale figures for passenger vehicles in November [2][3]. - The report emphasizes a short-term focus on automotive parts companies with robotics layouts and a long-term outlook on complete vehicle manufacturers [2][3]. - The report suggests that the market sentiment peaked post-Guangzhou Auto Show but remains optimistic due to strong sales data, indicating limited adjustment space [2][3]. Summary by Sections Recent Market Performance - The automotive index fell by 2.2% this week, ranking 20th out of 31 sectors [2]. - Retail sales of passenger vehicles reached 1.106 million units from November 1-17, a year-on-year increase of 30% [2]. - Wholesale figures for passenger vehicles were 1.271 million units, up 37% year-on-year [2]. Industry Changes - Over 2 million applications for vehicle scrappage and replacement subsidies have been submitted as of November 18 [2]. - Tesla's Optimus robot is projected to be priced between $20,000 and $30,000, with an annual production target exceeding 1 million units [2][3]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Geely Automobile, Seres, Li Auto, and BYD for their strong fundamentals and potential for significant trading opportunities [3][4]. - For automotive parts, focus on companies with robotics initiatives, as the market for autonomous driving is expected to expand significantly by 2025 [3][11]. Strategy and Focus - The report advises prioritizing leading vehicle manufacturers and automotive parts companies involved in robotics [4]. - The anticipated growth in the autonomous driving sector and the introduction of Tesla's robots are seen as catalysts for investment opportunities [3][10].

电子 2024 年 11 月 24 日 强于大市（维持评级） 一年内行业相对大盘走势 团队成员 分析师： 陈海进(S0210524060003) chj30590@hfzq.com.cn 分析师： 徐巡(S0210524060004) xx30511@hfzq.com.cn 联系人： 谢文嘉(S0210124040078) xwj30510@hfzq.com.cn 联系人： 李雅文(S0210124040076) lyw30508@hfzq.com.cn 相关报告 1、Rokid 发布 AR 眼镜，华为 Mate 系列将于下周 上市——消费电子系列跟踪——2024.11.23 2、维谛展望 MW 级 GPU 机柜，打开互联、散热 技术想象空间-海外科技周跟踪——2024.11.23 3、ChatGPT周访问量突破9 亿，"精度感知"Scaling Law 再引关注-算力周跟踪——2024.11.20 华福证券 电子 重申自主可控，关注国产替代新动态-半导体周跟 踪 投资要点： 四大指数涨跌互现。（1）全行业指数：本周（1118-1122）申万半导 体指数/恒生科技指数继续下行，分别-0.34%/-2.2%，费 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the real estate sector, indicating a positive outlook compared to the broader market [5]. Core Insights - The cancellation of ordinary residential standards in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen is expected to reduce transaction costs in the second-hand housing market, leading to a recovery in sales [1][2]. - The current market recovery is anticipated to progress through phases of alleviated liquidity pressure, continued supply contraction, stabilization of housing prices, and a resurgence in sales and construction activities [2]. Sales Review (11.17-11.23) - A total of 22,000 new homes were sold across 34 monitored cities, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 6%. Cumulatively, 807,000 homes have been sold in 2024, representing a year-on-year decline of 26.4% [3][13]. - Sales in first-tier cities reached 7,166 units, up 2.5% from the previous week, while second-tier cities saw sales of 12,569 units, an increase of 18.7%. In contrast, third-tier cities experienced a decline of 33.2%, with sales of 1,882 units [3][14]. Land Supply (11.10-11.16) - The planned construction area for residential land across 100 cities was 2,257 million square meters, with a cumulative supply of 34,908 million square meters in 2024, down 33.1% year-on-year. The supply-demand ratio stands at 1.59 [34][35]. - The average land listing price across 100 cities was 3,444 yuan per square meter, with a recent four-week average of 4,673 yuan per square meter, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 11.3% but a year-on-year increase of 9.7% [37][38]. Land Transactions (11.10-11.16) - The total planned construction area for residential land transactions was 1,124 million square meters, with a cumulative total of 21,935 million square meters in 2024, down 23.9% year-on-year [51][54]. - The average transaction price for residential land across 100 cities was 6,309 yuan per square meter, showing a slight decrease of 0.4% week-on-week but a significant year-on-year increase of 53.7% [54][55].

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperform" relative to the market, maintaining this rating for the next year [2]. Core Insights - The report indicates that while there are short-term pressures on volume and price in the liquor sector, the long-term outlook remains positive, with potential for valuation recovery if fiscal policies exceed expectations [12]. - The report emphasizes the importance of selecting individual stocks with strong growth potential within the beverage sector, particularly in high-end products and innovative categories [17][19]. Summary by Category Liquor - Short-term volume and price pressures are expected, with overall demand remaining subdued. The report anticipates that Q4 and the beginning of the new year will continue to face challenges, but a turning point may be on the horizon due to collective pressure release in Q3 [10][12]. - Recommended stocks include Moutai, Wuliangye, and others, with a focus on maintaining core product prices [12]. Beer - The beer sector is projected to see stable sales in 2024, with growth driven by high-end product strategies. Qingdao Beer and Yanjing Beer are highlighted as key recommendations [16][15]. Soft Drinks - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in functional beverages, such as Dongpeng Beverage, and those with positive fundamentals like Xiangpiaopiao [19][17]. Ready-to-Drink Alcohol - The ready-to-drink alcohol sector is expected to grow steadily, with Baijiu Holdings recommended as a leading player due to its strong market position and upcoming product launches [21]. Dairy Products - The report recommends Yili Group, emphasizing its focus on profit margins and product structure optimization [23][22]. Snacks - Companies like Three Squirrels and Jin Zai Food are highlighted for their growth potential in emerging channels and new product launches [37][34]. Seasoning & Catering - Anqi Yeast and Zhongju Gaoxin are recommended for their strong domestic performance and overseas growth potential, with expectations for improved profitability in Q4 [30][31]. Baking Supply Chain - Hai Rong Technology is recommended for its overseas expansion plans and expected growth in 2024 [33]. Sugar Alternatives - Companies like Rhein Biotech and Huakang are suggested for their strong market positions in natural sweeteners, which are expected to see increased demand [39]. Catering - Recommendations include Tongqinglou and Yum China, focusing on their collaborative growth strategies and innovative supply chains [42][40]. Pet Industry - Companies like Zhongchong and Petty are highlighted for their strong export performance and market positioning [45][43].