Investment Rating - Investment rating for the precious metals sector is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The "Trump trade" has reversed, leading to a high-level adjustment in gold prices amid ongoing uncertainty surrounding the elections. The volatility of various asset prices is expected to increase significantly [1][2] - Short-term focus remains on the upcoming U.S. elections, while long-term outlook suggests a bullish trend for gold due to accommodative monetary and fiscal policies in the U.S., alongside geopolitical tensions [1][2] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The report highlights macroeconomic indicators from the U.S., including a lower-than-expected JOLTs job openings number of 7.443 million and a significant drop in October non-farm payrolls to 12,000, against an expectation of 113,000 [8][9] 2. Precious Metals - Gold prices have shown an increase, with London spot gold rising by 0.47% and Shanghai gold up by 0.80%. However, silver prices have decreased, with London spot silver down by 1.06% and Shanghai silver down by 2.16% [18][19] - The report suggests monitoring companies such as Zijin Mining, Zhongjin Gold, and Shandong Gold for potential investment opportunities [1][2] 3. Industrial Metals - Copper prices have seen a slight increase, with London copper up by 0.40% and Shanghai copper up by 0.17%. However, copper inventories have decreased, with London copper stocks down by 1.95% and Shanghai copper stocks down by 6.04% [24][25] - The report indicates that the supply-side issues for copper remain unresolved, suggesting a potential for long-term price increases [2][25] 4. Aluminum - Aluminum prices have fluctuated, with London aluminum up by 0.46% and Shanghai aluminum down by 0.26%. The report notes a significant drop in aluminum enterprise profits, down 27.79% to 1,329 yuan/ton [3][27] - The report emphasizes the need to monitor the supply dynamics of bauxite and alumina, as well as the impact of new production capacities [3][27] 5. Minor Metals - Minor metal prices have shown mixed trends, with manganese ore up by 10.26% while molybdenum and magnesium ingots have decreased by 0.53% and 0.57%, respectively [4] - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in antimony, tungsten, and indium for investment opportunities [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The report highlights a divergence in energy metal prices, with lithium carbonate rebounding from the bottom, while rare earth permanent magnets are experiencing an upward fluctuation. Lithium carbonate prices increased by 0.75% to 73,850 CNY/ton, while lithium hydroxide prices decreased by 0.37% to 66,945 CNY/ton. The supply side shows a steady increase in lithium carbonate production since the beginning of the year, but a decline in production since June. Demand has stabilized, leading to a relatively quiet spot market. Optimistic expectations and production scheduling have stimulated a price rebound, but a surplus is expected to keep prices weak in the future [1][2][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The top three performing segments this week are: Permanent Magnets 22.07%, Rare Earths 14.80%, and Diamonds 2.66%. The bottom three are: High-Temperature Alloys -2.75%, Aluminum Alloys -0.96%, and Lithium -0.25% [8][9]. 2. Energy Metals - **Lithium**: Lithium spodumene prices rose by 0.54% to 747 USD/ton, lithium mica prices increased by 1.80% to 1,415 CNY/ton, and lithium carbonate prices rose by 0.75% to 73,850 CNY/ton. Lithium hydroxide prices fell by 0.37% to 66,945 CNY/ton. The profit margin for lithium carbonate from spodumene increased by 8.06% to 3,522 CNY/ton, while the margin from mica decreased by 2.70% to 4,979 CNY/ton [12][13]. - **Cobalt**: Overseas MB cobalt prices rose to 10.88 USD/pound, while domestic cobalt prices fell to 174,000 CNY/ton. Supply remains sufficient, but demand is low, maintaining a surplus [2][20]. - **Nickel Manganese**: Manganese sulfate prices fell to 0.62 CNY/ton, while nickel sulfate prices remained stable at 27,800 CNY/ton. The market is currently quiet, with expectations for a rebound post-inventory depletion [1][22]. 3. Rare Earth Permanent Magnets - Light rare earth ore prices increased by 0.15% to 34,300 CNY/ton, while medium and heavy rare earth ore prices rose by 0.27% to 183,000 CNY/ton. The prices for praseodymium-neodymium oxide increased by 0.12% to 423,500 CNY/ton, and terbium oxide rose by 1.27% to 5,975,000 CNY/ton. The market is expected to remain strong due to recovering downstream orders and supply disruptions [2][24]. 4. New Materials - **Power New Materials**: Phosphate iron prices remained stable at 10,400 CNY/ton, while phosphate lithium prices increased by 0.6% to 33,100 CNY/ton. The price of precursor 622 remained stable at 72,500 CNY/ton, while ternary cathode 622 prices fell by 0.8% to 120,500 CNY/ton [28][29]. - **Photovoltaic New Materials**: The average price of welding tape remained stable at 4.25 CNY/kg, while the average price of 421 metal silicon powder rose by 0.76% to 13,250 CNY/ton. The average price of photovoltaic frames decreased by 0.17% to 23,880 CNY/ton [28][29].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The company's performance in Q3 2024 was below expectations, with a revenue of 5.81 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 1.22%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 702 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.19% [3] - The decline in investment income led to lower profit growth; excluding this impact, net profit growth was 7.5% [3] - The company achieved a coal production of 3.727 million tons in Q3, a year-on-year increase of 17.8%, while the electricity generation from thermal power decreased by 5% [4] - The company maintains a commitment to a dividend payout ratio of 70%, with a projected dividend yield of 5.6% for 2024 [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company reported an operating income of 5.81 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.22% year-on-year, and a net profit of 702 million yuan, which is a slight increase of 0.19% year-on-year [3] - The investment income for Q3 was 56 million yuan, down by 63 million yuan year-on-year, primarily due to reduced dividend income from associated companies [3] - The company's coal production increased to 3.727 million tons in Q3, with external sales of 1.709 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.9% [4] Market Performance - The average on-grid electricity price for the first three quarters was 0.3348 yuan per kilowatt-hour, a decrease of 1.2 cents year-on-year [4] - The company’s coal sales price averaged 413.3 yuan per ton, an increase of 12.38 yuan per ton year-on-year, which is higher than the first half of the year [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is 2.476 billion yuan, 2.812 billion yuan, and 3.008 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 23.5%, 13.5%, and 7.0% respectively [5] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 12, 10, and 10 times for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Funeng Power (600483 SH) [3] Core Views - Q3 2024 results slightly below expectations with revenue of RMB 3 82 billion (-4 13% YoY) and net profit of RMB 585 million (-16 6% YoY) [3] - Power generation declined 3 51% YoY in Q3 2024 mainly due to coal-fired unit maintenance offsetting benefits from lower coal costs [3] - Newly approved offshore wind projects totaling 660MW with good wind resources expected to start operation by end-2026 [3] - Fujian province expected to accelerate offshore wind approvals with more reasonable pricing mechanisms improving project returns [3] Financial Performance - 2024-2026 net profit forecasts maintained at RMB 2 988 billion RMB 3 145 billion and RMB 3 47 billion respectively [3] - 2024-2026 EPS projected at RMB 1 12 RMB 1 18 and RMB 1 30 with PE ratios of 8x 8x and 7x [3][4] - 2024-2026 revenue growth rates forecast at -0 91% 3 23% and 5 23% respectively [4] - ROE expected to remain stable around 12% from 2024-2026 [4] Project Development - Total approved thermal power capacity reaches 2 62GW including newly approved Quanhui Phase II project [3] - Offshore wind projects under construction through joint ventures total 900MW with 500MW already operational [3] - Offshore wind turbine prices have dropped to RMB 3 680 kW nearly half of 2021 peak levels [3] Industry Outlook - Fujian province plans to add 10 3GW of offshore wind capacity during 14th Five-Year Plan period [3] - Offshore wind approval process expected to accelerate in 2024-2025 with more reasonable pricing mechanisms [3] - Fujian's offshore wind resources ranked first in China supporting higher project returns [3]

证券研究报告 电力设备 | 其他电源设备Ⅱ 非金融|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2024 年 11 月 02 日 | --- | |-------------------------------------| | | | 证券分析师 | | 查浩 SAC：S1350524060004 | | zhahao@huayuanstock.com | | 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 | | liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 戴映炘 | | SAC：S1350524080002 | | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------|---------------------| | 基本数据 | 2024 年 11 月 01 日 | | 收盘价（元） | 15.35 | | 一 年 内 最 高 / 最 低 （元） | 19.07/12.26 | | 总市值（百万元） | 47,853.62 | | | | | 流通市值（百万元） | 36,276.72 | | 总股本（百万股） | 3,117.50 | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for New Oriental (EDU N) [2] Core Views - New Oriental's FY25Q1 revenue reached $1 44 billion, a year-over-year increase of 30 5%, with Non-GAAP net income attributable to shareholders at $265 million, up 39 8% year-over-year [1] - The company's core education business operating margin improved to 23 7%, a 370bps increase year-over-year, while the Non-GAAP operating margin stood at 24 4%, up 220bps [2] - New Oriental's education new business revenue grew by 49 8% year-over-year, with non-academic class enrollments reaching 484,000, a 10 5% increase [3] - The company's overseas test preparation and study abroad consulting businesses saw revenue growth of 18 8% and 20 7% respectively, while adult and college domestic test preparation business revenue increased by 30 4% [3] Business Performance - New Oriental's total number of schools and learning centers increased to 1,089, with 64 new learning centers added in the quarter [2] - The company's active paying users for its intelligent learning system reached 323,000, a 78 5% year-over-year increase [2] - New Oriental's cash and cash equivalents balance stood at $1 15 billion, supporting the company's expansion in the education business [2] Financial Projections - The report forecasts adjusted net income attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 at $502 million, $642 million, and $740 million, representing year-over-year growth rates of 31 8%, 27 9%, and 15 3% respectively [3] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are $5 33 billion, $6 49 billion, and $7 40 billion, with year-over-year growth rates of 23 6%, 21 7%, and 14 1% [4] - The company's PE ratios for 2025-2027 are projected at 20x, 16x, and 14x respectively [3] Industry Analysis - The education industry continues to show strong demand, particularly in the non-academic and test preparation segments [3] - New Oriental's multi-line strategy post the "Double Reduction" policy has entered a new growth cycle, with stable market share and continuous growth in new store openings [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation Co., Ltd. is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that supply tightness supports freight rates, while long-distance cost increases and tax burdens are dragging down profits [1] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2022: 18,657.84 million RMB - 2023: 22,090.52 million RMB (growth of 18.40%) - 2024E: 24,414.86 million RMB (growth of 10.52%) - 2025E: 26,663.67 million RMB (growth of 9.21%) - 2026E: 28,742.56 million RMB (growth of 7.80%) [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected as: - 2022: 1,457.33 million RMB - 2023: 3,350.58 million RMB (growth of 129.29%) - 2024E: 4,603.98 million RMB (growth of 37.41%) - 2025E: 6,009.56 million RMB (growth of 30.53%) - 2026E: 7,134.69 million RMB (growth of 18.72%) [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) forecast: - 2023: 0.70 RMB - 2024E: 0.97 RMB - 2025E: 1.26 RMB - 2026E: 1.50 RMB [2] Financial Ratios - Return on Equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 9.74% in 2023 to 14.90% in 2026 [2] - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 18.64 in 2023 to 8.75 in 2026 [2] Balance Sheet Overview - Total assets are projected to grow from 72,083.61 million RMB in 2023 to 85,411.75 million RMB in 2026 [3] - Total liabilities are expected to remain stable around 34,980.29 million RMB in 2023, decreasing slightly to 33,558.42 million RMB by 2026 [3] Cash Flow Analysis - Operating cash flow is projected to increase from 8,822.16 million RMB in 2023 to 11,029.02 million RMB in 2026 [3] - Net cash flow is expected to turn positive by 2026, reaching 3,015.40 million RMB [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 944 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.78%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 24.48% to 109 million yuan [1] - The revenue for the third quarter was 314 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 6.31%, with a net profit of approximately 35.06 million yuan, down 7.90% year-on-year [1] - The decline in revenue is attributed to fewer new orders signed in 2023 and disruptions in the confirmation of major projects, but a recovery in revenue is expected in the fourth quarter due to a significant increase in new orders in the first half of the year [1] - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 34.49%, an increase of 1.29 percentage points year-on-year, while the gross margin for the third quarter was 30.61%, up 0.96 percentage points year-on-year but down 5.06 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1] - The company's expense ratio increased due to information technology investments and foreign exchange losses, with a total expense ratio of 20.13% for the first three quarters, up 5.11 percentage points year-on-year [1] Financial Summary - The company expects net profits for 2024-2026 to be 205 million yuan, 269 million yuan, and 348 million yuan, respectively, corresponding to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 23, 17, and 14 times based on the stock price as of November 1 [2] - The revenue forecast for 2024 is 1,639 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 28.33% [4] - The company's total market capitalization is approximately 4,748.10 million yuan, with a closing price of 19.32 yuan per share [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The company reported a year-on-year increase in profit for Q3, with gross margin continuing to improve. The gross margin for the first three quarters was 49.8%, 51.6%, and 53% respectively, showing a year-on-year change of -1.3, +12.1, and +9.4 percentage points [2] - The company is expected to focus on core products and self-manufactured products, with a rich product pipeline and potential for rapid improvement in profitability [3] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.25 billion yuan (up 5.9% year-on-year) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 250 million yuan (up 4.1% year-on-year) [1] - The quarterly revenue for Q1 to Q3 was 810 million, 750 million, and 690 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -5.6%, +13.2%, and +14.1% respectively [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1 to Q3 was 100 million, 80 million, and 70 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -24.8%, +30.1%, and +55.5% respectively [1] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is 380 million, 470 million, and 570 million yuan, with growth rates of 50.1%, 22.5%, and 22.3% respectively [3] - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 21X, 17X, and 14X respectively [3] Market Performance - As of November 1, 2024, the closing price of the stock was 37.80 yuan, with a one-year high of 47.50 yuan and a low of 25.50 yuan [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The company's performance in the first three quarters of 2024 met expectations, with a revenue of 133.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.79%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 9.191 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 63.41% [3] - The decline in revenue is attributed to the impact of new energy pricing in the market, while the significant increase in net profit is mainly due to one-time investment income from the transfer of assets in the second quarter [3][4] - The company is positioned as a key player in the conventional energy integration platform of the State Power Investment Corporation, with plans to add 35 GW of new energy capacity during the 14th Five-Year Plan [5] Financial Summary - As of November 1, 2024, the company's closing price is 4.88 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 87,037.82 million yuan and a debt-to-asset ratio of 72.73% [2] - The company expects net profits for 2024-2026 to be 9.122 billion yuan, 6.661 billion yuan, and 6.930 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 62.65%, -26.98%, and 4.03% [5][6] - The projected P/E ratios for 2024-2026 are 10, 13, and 13 times respectively [5] Operational Performance - As of September 2024, the company has a total installed capacity of 108.06 million kilowatts, with significant contributions from thermal, hydropower, wind, and solar energy [4] - In the third quarter, the company achieved an on-grid electricity volume of 126.7 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 1.2%, primarily driven by growth in solar capacity [4] - The average on-grid electricity price in the third quarter was 0.4105 yuan per kWh, showing a slight decline of approximately 0.3 cents per kWh compared to the previous year [4]