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华为开发者大会:鸿蒙NEXT与盘古大模型5.0持续引领国产AI创新
BOCOM International· 2024-06-25 03:02
Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating for the technology sector [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12] Core Views - Huawei's HDC 2024 developer conference showcased significant advancements in AI and operating systems, particularly with the launch of HarmonyOS NEXT and PanGu Model 5.0 [1] - HarmonyOS NEXT represents a major shift as it no longer supports Android apps, focusing instead on a unified system across devices with performance improvements of 30% and a goal of 20% annual performance enhancement [1] - PanGu Model 5.0 introduces three major upgrades: full-series, multi-modal, and strong-thinking capabilities, with applications across 30+ industries and 400+ scenarios [2] - Harmony Intelligence, combining on-device and cloud-based AI, enhances user experience and system integration, similar to Apple's approach with Apple Intelligence [2] - Huawei's ecosystem, combining HarmonyOS and PanGu Model 5.0, is expected to drive further growth in the domestic AI and consumer electronics sectors [2] Key Highlights by Section HarmonyOS NEXT - HarmonyOS NEXT adopts a vertical integration architecture and no longer supports Android apps, focusing on a unified system across devices [1] - Performance improvements include a 10.7% boost over Linux kernel and a 30% overall system performance increase, with a target of 20% annual improvement [1] - Over 1,500 of the top 5,000 apps have been adapted for HarmonyOS NEXT, covering 99.9% of user usage time [1] - HarmonyOS has achieved a 17% market share in China, surpassing iOS's 16% [1] - Beta testing for HarmonyOS NEXT has begun, with a commercial release planned for Q4 2024 [1] PanGu Model 5.0 - PanGu Model 5.0 features full-series models ranging from billions to trillions of parameters, suitable for various business scenarios [2] - Multi-modal capabilities include support for 10K ultra-high resolution in image and video recognition, and the use of STCG technology for generating physically accurate multi-modal content [2] - Strong-thinking capabilities combine chain-of-thought techniques with strategic search, enhancing mathematical and complex task planning abilities [2] - The model has been applied in over 30 industries and 400 scenarios, including pharmaceuticals, robotics, and autonomous driving [2] Harmony Intelligence - Harmony Intelligence integrates AI deeply into the system using a hybrid on-device and cloud-based approach [2] - The on-device component combines personal data, user intent, UI, and AI subsystems, while the cloud leverages PanGu Model 5.0 and third-party models [2] - The upgraded XiaoYi assistant, based on PanGu Model 5.0, has improved memory and reasoning capabilities by 23% and 90%, respectively [2] - Huawei's ecosystem, combining HarmonyOS and PanGu Model 5.0, strengthens the integration of AI at both the architecture and system levels [2] Market and Industry Impact - Huawei's advancements are expected to drive growth in the domestic AI and consumer electronics sectors, particularly in smartphone and semiconductor industries [1][2] - Companies like Will Semiconductor, BYD Electronics, and GoerTek are highlighted as short-term beneficiaries, while enterprise and application software firms like iSoftStone and Thundersoft are seen as long-term opportunities [1]
日本农林中央金库再度引发对于资产负债错配问题的关注
BOCOM International· 2024-06-24 10:02
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the banking industry or the specific company discussed [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights concerns regarding asset-liability mismatch issues raised by the Japan Agricultural and Forestry Central Bank (Norinchukin), which plans to sell over 10 trillion yen (approximately 63 billion USD) in government bonds and expects a loss of 1.5 trillion yen by the end of the fiscal year 2025 [1][2]. - The bank's asset structure shows that securities account for 44%, while loans and discounted bills only account for 18%. The liabilities are primarily sourced from member bank deposits, which constitute 68% of the total [2]. - The report indicates that the bank's bond investments have been generating continuous losses since the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes began in 2022, with unrealized losses amounting to 2.2 trillion yen, representing 7% of the bond investment amounting to 31.3 trillion yen [2]. - The bank aims to adjust its investment portfolio by reducing its holdings in foreign sovereign bonds and increasing exposure to corporate and personal credit risks, including equities, corporate bonds, and securitized products [2]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Financial Performance - Norinchukin plans to sell over 10 trillion yen in bonds and expects a loss of 1.5 trillion yen for the fiscal year ending March 2025, which is an increase of 1 trillion yen from previous expectations [1]. - The bank's bond investments have resulted in significant unrealized losses due to the rising interest rates, with a total unrealized loss of 2.2 trillion yen reported for the fiscal year 2023 [2]. Section 2: Asset and Liability Structure - As of March 2024, the asset structure is heavily weighted towards securities (44%) and bonds (56%), with foreign bonds making up 75% of the bond portfolio [2][3]. - The liabilities are primarily composed of member bank deposits (68%) and repurchase agreements (14%) [2]. Section 3: Strategic Adjustments - The bank intends to sell U.S. government bonds to improve profitability and adjust its investment strategy, focusing on increasing allocations to corporate credit and equities [2]. - The report emphasizes the need for banks to closely monitor interest rate trends to manage asset-liability mismatch risks effectively [2].
领展房产基金:交银国际-领展房托(0823.HK)租金回报具吸引力,收购项目营运不俗,维持买入-240621
BOCOM International· 2024-06-23 03:22
收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 港元 31.85 港元 47.70 +49.8% 中国香港房地产 2024 年 6 月 21 日 我们近期走访了领展旗下的上海七宝万科广场,领展已于2024年2月完成 了对该公司剩余 50%股权的收购。以下是主要亮点: 几乎滿租且有正续租租金调整。据项目人员介绍,即使在 2020-22 年期 间,该项目的出租率也高达约 95%,高于其他邻近购物中心的 80 – 90%。 该项目在 2023 年实现约 11%的正续租租金调整率,即使在充满挑战的零 售环境下,管理人员仍预计在 2024 年可实现低个位数的正租金调整,主 要由餐饮支持。 资产增值、租户结构升级以保持增长。领展一直在优化租户组合,引入一 些热门品牌,如Lululemon、Salomon以及其他轻奢品牌,以提高租户的整 体租金承受能力。与此同时,购物中心在 4/5 层约 7,000 平方米的资产正 在进行资产提升计划,预计将于2024年3季度完成。领展表示,该区域大 部分面积已预租,预计竣工后可实现两位数的投资回报率,整体出租率将 恢复至 95%以上。 1 年单位价格表现 交银国际研究 公司更新 领展房托 (823 HK) 租 ...
全球领先细胞疗法平台,产能+适应症扩张驱动Carvykti销售快速爬坡
BOCOM International· 2024-06-20 02:02
全球领先细胞疗法平; 产能+适应症扩张驱动 Carvykti 销售快速爬坡 ◎ 公司目标2025年底产能达10,000剂,足以支持40亿美元以上的年销售 额。公司还通过和CMO合作解决短期产能紧缺问题。我们认为后续产 能释放将是重要的销售增长驱动力和股价催化剂。 交银国际研究 首次覆盖 财务数据一览 年结12月31日 2022 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E 收入 (百万美元) 117 285 600 1,051 1,382 同比增长 (%) 70.0 143.7 110.5 75.2 31.5 净利润 (百万美元) (446) (518) (366) (128) 81 每股盈利 (美元) (1.40) (1.47) (1.04) (0.36) 0.23 同比增长 (%) -2.1 4.9 -29.4 -64.9 -163.2 市盈率 (倍) NA NA NA NA 180.1 公司目标 2025 年底产能达 10,000 剂,为长期销售放量奠定基础。新泽西 州厂房 2023 年两次获 FDA 批准提高产能,同时早期复发适应症的获批有 望进一步提升生产成功率,将推动 2024 年销售爬坡。新泽西 ...
欧盟对中国电动汽车加征关税,不会阻碍中国车企出海步伐
BOCOM International· 2024-06-13 10:02
交银国际研究 消息快报 汽车 2024年6月13日 汽车行业 欧盟对中国电动汽车加征关税,不会阻碍中国车企出海步伐  欧盟委员会披露的临时关税比市场之前预期的25%略低。欧盟委员会披露 陈庆 了对从中国进口的电池电动汽车(BEV)征收的临时关税水平。欧盟委员 angus.chan@bocomgroup.com 会对三家抽样中国汽车生产商征收的关税分别为:比亚迪17.4%,吉利20% (86)2160653601 和上汽集团38.1%。另外对中国其他参与调查但尚未抽样的电池电动汽车 生产商将被征收21%的加权平均关税,“不配合调查的公司”将面临38.1% 的关税。另外欧盟委员会称,如果与中方的讨论不能得出有效的解决方 案,这些临时关税将从7月4日起引入。我们认为21%的临时关税比市场 之前预期的25%略低,同时对中国新能源车龙头比亚迪只征收17.4%的临 时关税。  具备规模效应和供应链优势的车企如比亚迪等在21%关税下依然具备竞争 力。我们认为部分具备规模效应和供应链优势的车企在~20%的关税下依 然具备竞争力。比亚迪的宋Plus 在欧盟的定价较中国高接近一倍,利润十 分可观,即使加征20~% 的关税,该 ...
科技行业:WWDC2024:AppleIntelligence等惊喜亮相,展示苹果AI软件发展
BOCOM International· 2024-06-12 08:07
交银国际研究 消息快报 科技 2024年6月11日 科技行业 WWDC2024:Apple Intelligence 等惊喜亮相,展示苹果 AI 软件发展 Ɵ 北京时间6月11日凌晨1点,一年一度的苹果全球开发者大会(WWDC) 王大卫,PhD,CFA 拉开帷幕,展示了苹果在人工智能软件方面的发展,包括推出苹果首个生 Dawei.wang@bocomgroup.com 成式 AI 大模型 Apple Intelligence,以及针对 visionOS 2、iOS 18、iPadOS (852)37661867 18、macOS 15 Sequoia等软件的更新。 Ɵ visionOS 2为娱乐和工作解锁更多新功能,Apple Vision Pro将在中国等八 童钰枫 个地区发售。仅在Apple Vision Pro美国发售四个月后,visionOS迎来更新, Carrie.Tong@bocomgroup.com 主要的更新包括:可将普通照片转化为空间照片、采用Mac虚拟显示器大 (852)37661804 幅提高工作效率,以及一众功能强大的全新开发者API。公司表示,目前 已有2,000多款专为Apple ...
汽车行业月报:5月乘用车零售销量环比回升,预计6月份继续回暖
BOCOM International· 2024-06-12 04:02
交银国际研究 行业更新 行业评级 2024年6月11日 汽车行业月报 领先 5 月乘用车零售销量环比回升,预计 6 月份继续回暖  5月乘用车零售销量环比回升。2024年5月,随着以旧换新政策落地和北 行业与大盘一年趋势图 京车展的火热召开,消费者的购车需求得到释放,乘用车零售销量环比回 行业表现 恒生指数 升11.4%至171万辆,但由于去年基数较高,同比微降1.9%。2024年1-5 40% 30% 月销量累计约807.3万辆,同比增长5.7%。我们预计6月份因各车企将冲 20% 刺半年度业绩,消费者的情绪将继续回暖,销量将延续环比改善的态势。 10% 从 5 月份各车企的零售销量来看,比亚迪的市场份额仍遥遥领先,为 0% -10% 15.7%,吉利/奇瑞销量增长强劲,同比增31.6%/59.3%至12.4/8.9万辆,市 -20% 场份额分别为7.2%/5.2%。 -30% 6/23 10/23 2/24  5月新能源汽车零售渗透率继续上升至47%。5月新能源车零售销量录得 资料来源: FactSet 80.4万辆(同比/环比增38.5%/18.7%),渗透率环比提升3.0个百分点至 陈庆 47.0 ...
可转债发行优化融资成本,回购加大缓和股价影响
BOCOM International· 2024-06-12 04:02
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to JD, Alibaba, and Trip.com, indicating a positive outlook for these companies in the internet sector [2][10]. Core Insights - The issuance of convertible bonds by JD, Alibaba, and Trip.com is seen as a strategy to optimize financing costs and mitigate the impact of stock dilution through concurrent share buybacks [1][2]. - The report highlights that the financing will support overseas expansion and enhance supply chain networks, which is expected to improve operational efficiency and explore new markets [1][2]. - The companies' current stock prices are viewed as being at the lower end of their valuation ranges, with JD and Alibaba trading at 8.8x and 9.2x forward P/E ratios, respectively [2]. Summary by Relevant Sections Convertible Bond Issuance - JD plans to raise $2 billion with a 0.25% interest rate and a conversion price of $45.7 per share, primarily for share buybacks and overseas business expansion [5][6]. - Alibaba aims to raise $5 billion at a 0.5% interest rate with a conversion price of $105.04 per share, focusing on share buybacks and establishing capped call options [6][7]. - Trip.com is set to raise $1.5 billion with a 0.75% interest rate and a conversion price of $66.46 per share, intended for repaying existing financial debts and supporting overseas business [8][9]. Financial Health and Market Position - JD's cash reserves are reported at $13.6 billion, which will be bolstered by the new financing, aiding in share buybacks and international expansion [1]. - Alibaba has a cash reserve of $30.1 billion, with a remaining buyback capacity of $31.9 billion, indicating strong financial health [1]. - Trip.com has cash reserves of approximately $617 million, which will help in optimizing loan costs and supporting operational needs [1]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates that despite intense competition in the industry, improvements in user experience and technological investments will enhance business health and operational efficiency for JD and Alibaba [2]. - Trip.com is expected to benefit from the gradual release of travel demand, with structural changes in travel preferences leading to new demand increments [2].
中国电力:改善消纳的新政策仍有利新增风、光项目推进,上调目标价
BOCOM International· 2024-06-07 02:02
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Power (2380 HK) with a target price raised to HKD 4.75 from HKD 3.90, indicating a potential upside of 27.0% from the current price of HKD 3.74 [1][2][11]. Core Views - The report highlights that new policies for renewable energy consumption are favorable for the advancement of new wind and solar projects, leading to an upward revision of the target price [1]. - Hydropower is recovering as expected, with a significant year-on-year increase in generation, and the forecast for hydropower utilization hours for 2024 has been adjusted from 2,750 to 2,900 hours [1][2]. - The report notes that while the utilization hours for wind and solar power are expected to remain stable, the company has seen substantial increases in generation due to acquisitions and new projects [2]. - The adjustment in the renewable energy consumption policy is expected to support the growth in new installations, ensuring reasonable utilization rates for new projects [2]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 43,689 million in 2022 to RMB 61,756 million by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 8.8% [3][12]. - Net profit is expected to increase significantly from RMB 2,648 million in 2022 to RMB 8,791 million in 2026, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [3][12]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to rise from RMB 0.20 in 2022 to RMB 0.68 in 2026, indicating a robust increase in profitability [3][12]. - The report anticipates a dividend payout ratio of 50%, resulting in an attractive dividend yield of 7.7% in 2025 [2][3]. Generation Capacity Forecast - The total generation capacity is expected to increase from 52,019 million kWh in 2024E to 67,019 million kWh by 2026E, with significant contributions from hydropower, wind, and solar energy [5][6]. - The report projects that the share of renewable energy in the company's generation mix will rise from 78.7% in 2024E to 83.5% by 2026E, reflecting a strategic shift towards cleaner energy sources [5][6].
多措并举促进新能源消纳,确保大规模发展的同时保持合理利用水平
BOCOM International· 2024-06-06 03:02
交银国际研究 消息快报 新能源 2024年6月5日 新能源行业 多措并举促进新能源消纳,确保大规模发展的同时保持合理利用水平 郑民康  多措并举促进新能源消纳。为提升电力系统对新能源的消纳能力,确保新 wallace.cheng@bocomgroup.com 能源大规模发展的同时保持合理利用水平,国家能源局发布《关于做好新 (852)37661810 能源消纳工作保障新能源高质量发展的通知》( “通知” ),提出以下重 点: 文昊,CPA (1) 加快推进新能源配套电网项目建设: 包括加强规划管理,为大型风电光 bob.wen@bocomgroup.com 伏基地等重点项目开辟纳规“绿色通道”。同时加快项目建设,建立已 (86)2160653667 纳入规划的新能源配套电网项目清单,在确保安全的前提下加快推进 前期、核准和建设工作,重点推动一批配套电网项目建设,2024年投 产37个、开工33个重点项目。 (2) 积极推进系统调节能力提升和网源协调发展: 包括加强系统调节能力建 设,强化调节资源效果评估认定,有序安排新能源项目建设,切实提 升新能源并网性能。 (3) 充分发挥电网资源配置平台作用: 包括进一 ...