Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for Legend Biotech (LEGN US) with a target price of **$76.00**, representing a potential upside of **33.5%** [1][5] Core View - The report highlights that the current stock price does not fully reflect the global commercialization potential of Carvykti in multiple myeloma (MM) treatment lines [1] - Legend Biotech's 2Q24 performance exceeded expectations, leading to an upward revision of the 2024 financial forecasts and target price [1] - The company is expected to achieve breakeven by 2026, driven by strong revenue growth and improving cost efficiency [1] Financial Performance - **2Q24 Revenue**: Total revenue increased by **154% YoY** to **$187 million**, with product revenue at **$93 million** and licensing revenue at **$91 million** [1] - **Gross Margin**: Product gross margin exceeded **50%** for the first time, reaching **51.4%** [1] - **Net Loss**: 2Q24 net loss narrowed significantly to **$18 million** (2Q23: **$199 million**), at the lower end of the loss guidance range [1] - **2024 Forecast**: Revenue and net profit forecasts for 2024 are revised to **$630 million** and **-$264 million**, respectively [1] Carvykti Sales and Capacity Expansion - **Carvykti Sales**: 2Q24 sales grew **60% YoY** and **18% QoQ** to **$186 million** [1] - **Hospital Coverage**: The number of US hospitals offering Carvykti treatment increased to **77** (from **71** in 1Q24), with a target of **100** by year-end [1] - **Outpatient Treatment**: The proportion of outpatient treatment reached **45%** (up from **35%** in 1Q24) [1] - **Capacity Expansion**: Key capacity expansions include: - Novartis initiated clinical production in July, releasing additional commercial capacity in New Jersey [1] - Belgium Phase 1 capacity expected to be approved in 2H24, with Phase 2 and New Jersey expansions set for 2025 [1] - Out-of-stock (OOS) rates for 2-4L MM indications decreased slightly in 2Q24, with further reductions of **5-10%** expected, improving production efficiency and gross margins [1] Financial Model Updates - **Revenue Forecasts**: 2024E revenue revised to **$630 million** (up **5.0%** from previous forecast), with 2025E and 2026E forecasts unchanged at **$1,051 million** and **$1,382 million**, respectively [2] - **Gross Profit**: 2024E gross profit revised to **$360 million** (up **7.3%**), with 2025E and 2026E forecasts at **$604 million** and **$849 million**, respectively [2] - **Net Profit**: 2024E net loss revised to **-$264 million** (from **-$366 million**), with 2026E net profit forecast at **$78 million** [2] Valuation and DCF Model - **DCF Model**: The DCF model's starting year rolled forward to 2025, with a target price of **$76.00** [1] - **Free Cash Flow**: Free cash flow is projected to turn positive in 2025, reaching **$334 million**, and growing to **$1,419 million** by 2033 [3] - **Enterprise Value**: Estimated at **$12,475 million**, with equity value of **$13,853 million** and a per-share value of **$76.00** [4] Industry Comparison - Legend Biotech is part of the **Biotech** sub-sector, with a **Buy** rating and a **33.5%** potential upside [5] - Other notable companies in the Biotech sub-sector include **BeiGene (6160 HK)** with a **41.9%** potential upside and **Hutchmed (13 HK)** with a **29.7%** potential upside [5]

市场策略 港股月度追踪 2024年8月9日 此报告最后部分的分析师披露、商业关系披露和免责声明为报告的一部分，必须阅读。 下载本公司之研究报告，可从彭博信息：BOCM或https://research.bocomgroup.com 蔡瑞,CFA Carl.Cai@bocomgroup.com (852)37661808 李少金 Evan.Li@bocomgroup.com (852)37661849 钱昊 Alan.Qian@bocomgroup.com (852)37661853 总结：港股"进可攻，退可守" 港股在本次全球Risk-Off的过程中调整相对有限，显示了一定的防御性。港股调整有限，部分原因 在于本轮由日元升值引起的套息交易逆转中，全球投资者对于港股资产配置仓位有限，杠杆率低， 加之港股本身估值无论是横向还是纵向均已在绝对低位，继续向下调整的空间相对有限。不仅如此， 随着美联储降息渐进，流动性宽松交易亦有望推动港股估值修复，对投资者来讲可谓是"进可攻、 退可守"。不过也需要留意伴随海外大选临近，市场的波动性可能会有提升，需注重平衡短期波动 以及非基本面的各类扰动。 板块风格配置： • 短期攻守兼 ...

交银国际研究 公司更新 证券 2024 年 8 月 9 日 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 美元 58.70 美元 90.00 +53.3% 富途控股 (FUTU US) 业绩预览：预计 2 季度业绩表现强劲，维持买入 预计 2024 年 2 季度盈利同环比均显著增长。富途将于 8 月 20 日公布业绩 。我们预计 2 季度 Non-GAAP 净利润同/环比分别增长 9.9%/17.0%，主要由 于：1）2 季度港美股市场表现均较为强劲，带动交易收入显著增长；2） 1 季度新增付费用户受到马来西亚市场集中获客影响，预计 2 季度恢复正 常水平（预计+7 万付费用户），营销费用环比显著下降。 2 季度港股和美股市场表现均较为强劲，预计带动交易收入同环比上升。 恒生指数 1 季度下跌 3%，2 季度上涨 7%；港股日均成交金额 1 季度同比 下降 22%，2 季度同比上升 18%/环比上升 22%。纳斯达克综指 1 季度上涨 9%，2 季度上涨 8%；据彭博公布的美国三大证券交易所日均成交量数据 ，1 季度同比持平，2 季度同比上升 8.6%/环比持平。我们预计富途 2 季度 交易量为 1.4 万亿港币，在去年同期的低 ...

交银国际研究 公司更新 内地房地产 2024 年 8 月 9 日 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 港元 2.90 港元 4.72↓ +62.8% 越秀服务 (6626 HK) 上半年业绩预览：现金充裕，但毛利率料轻微受压，下调目标价 2024 上半年料收入增长 20%+：受惠于过去两年母公司越秀地产销售增长 以及交付稳定，加上外托项目交付，我们预计越秀服务渠道项目转化至在 管项目可带动收入同比增长维持 20%以上。另外，我们认为房地产市场放 缓会导致非业主增值服务收入占比进一步减少。 毛利率料轻微下跌：同时，我们认为毛利率受 1）新增以及外托项目毛利 率较低；2）工资及其他成本上升；以及 3）增值服务毛利率下跌以及开 支增加影响，2024 上半年综合毛利率将同比下跌 1-2 个百分点至约 25% 。因此，我们同时调低全年利润增长至约 13%，并预料 2024 上半年利润 同比增长 10 - 15%，与我们全年预测相若。 预计现金维持充裕以支持回购及派息：由于 2024 上半年没有完成任何并 购，我们认为公司将继续产生正现金流。根据 2024 年 5 月的公司公告， 公司计划回购约 3,044 万股，约占已发行股份总 ...

交報国际研究 行业 文 新 2024 年８月９日 汽车行业月报 行业评级 领先 7 月新能源车渗透单升至 51.1%；8 月新车上市湖有堂奨振销量 O 7 月 集用 丰宝售销量阿比微降 • 自主品牌市场份额进一步装升 • 如我们此 前预计 ，因促销活动装前选支富永 ，2024 年 7 月份汽车市场进入休整期 ， 当月全国桑用车市场零售 172.0 万辆（同比/环比-2.8%/-2.6%）；1-7 月 累 计 零售 1,155.6 万辆（同比+2.3%） 。自主品牌份额继续拨升 ，合资车份额 则下 滂 ◦ 7 月 自 主 品 摩 魯 106 方 辆 ◦ 同 比 /环 比 +13%/+3% ， 当 月 自 主 品 摩 全国 零售 份额同 比增加 8.5 个百分点至 61.8%； 1-7 月自主品牌累计份额 57% ，相对于去年同期增加 7.2 个百分点 。7 月主流合资品牌零售 44 万辆 （同比/环比-25%/-8%），其中 稳 系/日 系/美 系 零 售 份额为 17.6%/12.9%/5.8% （同比-2.9/-3.0/-1.9 个百分点）。 O 7月新能源汽车车道单链线上升至 51.1% · 7月新能源车 ...

交報国际研究 行业制析 2024 年８月８日 房地产行业 行业评级 同步 传统淺季销售承压 ，关注未来政策执行情况 ◎ 7 月前百开发商销售环比回落 • 根据克币站的初步数据 • 陸着 7 月进入传 统浅 李 ，加上新政利好边际效用 递减 ，７月前百开发商的全口径销售总额 由 6 月的 4,702 亿元（人民币 ，下同）环比下降 35.6 %至 3,028 亿元 。我们 跟踪的 24 家主要上市开发商 7 月销售下滑 ,环比降 43.5% · 在 7 月销售排 名前十开发商中 , 国企数量为9家 , 民企1家（ 龙湖集团 , 排名第7位 ） 。 前 50 房企中 ，前七个月国企合同销售市占率略降至 72.4% 。 O 国家统计局 6 月教将显示一线城市复苏动能复强 • 根据国家统计局公布的 70 大中城市商品住宅价格指数 • 6 月一手房价格指数同比降幅普遍扩大 • 而一/三线城市环比降幅收窄；二手房价格指数同比降幅除一线城市外也 有所扩大 与此同时 价格同比/环比分别下跌 4.9%/0.7%（５月：-4.3%/-0.7%），而二手商品住 宅价格同比/环比分别下跌 7.9%/0.9%（５月：-7.5%/ -1 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The automotive industry is rated as "Leading" indicating attractive performance expectations compared to the benchmark index over the next 12 months [2]. Core Insights - Chinese independent automotive brands achieved record overseas sales in June 2024, with a total of 225,000 units sold, representing a year-on-year increase of 45% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3%. For the first half of 2024, total overseas sales reached 1.17 million units, up 57% year-on-year [2][3]. - Strong growth was observed in Europe, Asia, and South America, with respective sales increases of 59%, 49%, and 82% year-on-year for the first half of 2024. South America emerged as the fastest-growing market [2]. - Major contributors to export volumes include SAIC and Chery, accounting for 25% and 24% of total overseas sales, respectively. In the Russian market, Chery, Great Wall, and Geely ranked as the top three brands [2][3]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In the first half of 2024, Chinese exports to Europe, Asia, and South America were 567,000, 321,000, and 123,000 units, respectively, with South America showing the highest growth rate [2]. - The total export volume for the first half of 2024 was 1.17 million units, with a year-on-year growth rate of 57% [2][3]. Key Export Markets - Russia is the largest market for Chinese independent car exports, with 369,000 units exported in the first half of 2024, accounting for 31% of total exports. Other significant markets include Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Mexico, and Australia [2]. - The top five countries for new energy vehicle exports from China include the UK, Thailand, Israel, Brazil, and Germany, with respective export volumes of 63,000, 62,000, 47,000, 38,000, and 36,000 units [2]. Major Exporters - SAIC and BYD are leading exporters in the new energy vehicle segment, with export volumes of 199,000 and 125,000 units, respectively, for the first half of 2024 [2][3]. - The report highlights the competitive advantage of Chinese independent fuel vehicles due to their cost-effectiveness and increasing market share in regions like Russia and South America [3].

交银国际研究 公司更新 财务数据一览 教育 | --- | --- | --- | |-----------|------------|----------| | | | | | 收盘价 | 目标价 | 滑在流情 | | 美元 4.56 | 美元 7.50↓ | +64.5% | 高途 (GOTU US) 2 季度收入或超预期,线下投入或有加速 Θ 2024年2季度收款/收入增速或超预期。我们预计收款16.1亿元（人民币， 下同）,同比增 82%,超过我们此前预期的 15.4 亿元,与 Visible Alpha 16 亿元的一致预期基本一致,得益于:1)预计 K12业务受暑期续报拉动增 速翻番,占比整体收款超 80%,较去年同期大幅提升;2)预计成人业务 收款增约10%,超过我们此前预期的个位数增长,主要因考研和留学培训 表现超预期,部分抵消财经和心理相关业务收缩的负面影响。我们预计收 入 9.85 亿元,同比增 40%,较此前预期上调 6%,对比彭博预期 39%及公 司 1 李报时指引 29-32%,其中 K12/成人收入分别增 50%/10% Θ 亏损因拉新及线下投入超此前预期。我们预计２季度市场营销费 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Ping An (2318 HK) and China Pacific Insurance (2601 HK) [3] Core Views - The adjustment of the predetermined interest rates for insurance products is expected to alleviate the risk of interest spread losses, with the new rates set at 2.5% for traditional insurance and 2.0% for participating insurance [1] - The establishment of a dynamic adjustment mechanism linking predetermined rates to market rates will allow life insurance companies to manage interest spread risks more effectively [1] - Despite recent stock price declines, the insurance products are anticipated to retain their relative attractiveness compared to long-term deposit rates due to the new mechanisms [2] Summary by Sections Regulatory Changes - The Financial Regulatory Authority issued a notice on August 2, detailing a phased reduction in predetermined interest rates for insurance products, effective from September 1 and October 1 [1] - The new maximum rates are set at 2.5% for ordinary insurance and 2.0% for participating insurance, with a minimum guaranteed rate of 1.5% for universal insurance [1] Market Impact - On August 6, insurance stocks experienced significant declines, with China Life and China Pacific Insurance dropping over 5% and 10% respectively [2] - Concerns were raised regarding the reduced competitiveness of insurance products against deposits and other investment options due to the lower interest rates [2] Valuation and Outlook - The insurance sector is currently valued at historical lows, with attractive dividend yields of over 8% for Ping An and over 6% for China Pacific Insurance [3] - The report anticipates a potential recovery in industry profits from a low base, despite ongoing asset-side pressures [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the technology sector, particularly emphasizing strong demand for AI infrastructure from major cloud service providers [1][3]. Core Insights - The demand for AI infrastructure remains robust, with no signs of decline from major cloud service providers such as Microsoft, META, Google, and Amazon AWS. Their projected capital expenditures for CY2024/2025/2026 are expected to reach $174.3 billion, $194.1 billion, and $204.5 billion respectively, reflecting increases of 3.8%, 8.0%, and 8.3% compared to previous estimates [1][3][4]. - The report highlights that while some semiconductor companies have underperformed, those with significant exposure to AI infrastructure, such as AMD, have shown strong results. Intel's recent performance was mixed, with revenue meeting expectations but profitability disappointing due to capacity management issues [1][2][3]. - The report suggests that despite potential delays in NVIDIA's product releases, the overall demand for AI infrastructure remains strong, with NVIDIA being a major beneficiary in the current market [2][3]. Summary by Sections Capital Expenditure Insights - Microsoft and META have expressed strong intentions to increase capital expenditures, with Microsoft expecting a rise in spending to meet growing AI and cloud demands [3][4]. - META has raised its capital expenditure forecast for 2024 to between $37 billion and $40 billion, indicating a significant increase in investment to support AI research and product development [4][5]. - Amazon plans to increase its capital investments in AI, with a focus on enhancing AWS infrastructure to meet strong demand for both generative and non-generative AI workflows [4][5]. Performance of Major Cloud Service Providers - Google has emphasized the risks associated with underinvestment in AI infrastructure, indicating a commitment to continue investing heavily in this area [5]. - The report notes that Google is projected to have the highest growth in capital expenditures among the major cloud service providers, with an expected increase of over 58% in 2024 compared to 2023 [5][8]. Semiconductor Market Dynamics - The report indicates that while some semiconductor companies face challenges, those aligned with AI infrastructure, such as AMD, are performing well. Intel's issues are attributed to management decisions during its transition phase [1][2][3]. - ARM and other semiconductor architecture companies are experiencing volatility due to unpredictable revenue from new patent licenses, while companies like Qualcomm and TSMC have generally met or exceeded market expectations [1].