Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of the company to "Buy" with a target price of HKD 39.29, indicating a potential upside of 35.3% from the current price of HKD 29.05 [1][2][9]. Core Insights - The MONA series is expected to lead sales into a second growth curve, with the M03 model anticipated to have a highly competitive final price and superior energy consumption and in-car systems compared to peers [1]. - The company is projected to improve sales and revenue forecasts for 2025-2026 by 6-9% and 12-23% respectively, driven by the M03 and the upcoming P7+ model [1][2]. - The M03 is expected to maintain sales momentum through a two-phase launch strategy, with the entry-level version priced competitively at approximately RMB 120,000 to 125,000 [1][2]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024E are set at RMB 40,224 million, with a year-on-year growth of 31.1%, and for 2025E at RMB 51,918 million, reflecting a growth of 29.1% [3][6]. - The gross profit for 2024E is forecasted to be RMB 5,099 million, with a gross margin of 12.7%, improving from 8.8% in 2023 [3][6]. - The net loss is expected to narrow to RMB 4,974 million in 2024E, compared to RMB 10,376 million in 2023 [3][6]. Sales and Delivery Expectations - The company anticipates delivering 20,000 vehicles in September, with expectations that over 10,000 units of the M03 will be delivered in the same month [1][2]. - The M03 model is designed to attract younger consumers, particularly female users, with its stylish appearance and customizable options [1]. Competitive Positioning - The M03 is positioned competitively against similar models, with a projected price of RMB 150,000, compared to competitors like the Qin L120KM and Tesla Model 3, which are priced significantly higher [7]. - The report highlights the advantages of the MONA series in terms of in-car technology and autonomous driving capabilities, which are expected to further enhance the company's market position [2][7].

Industry Rating - The report assigns a "Leading" investment rating to the internet industry, indicating an attractive outlook compared to the benchmark index over the next 12 months [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in the overall market, with a projected 8% year-on-year growth in e-commerce gross merchandise volume (GMV) for the third quarter, driven by increased consumer frequency and supply chain expansion [2][8]. - Major platforms are expected to see a recovery in growth rates in the third quarter, with Alibaba's GMV and CMR projected to grow by 8% and 3% respectively, while JD.com is expected to maintain revenue growth above the retail sales growth rate [1][2]. - Pinduoduo is anticipated to continue gaining market share, while Alibaba focuses on the impact of new advertising products and technology service fees on monetization rates [2]. Summary by Sections E-commerce Performance - In July, the adjusted year-on-year growth rate for physical e-commerce retail sales was 8.1%, up from 6.4% in the second quarter. Categories such as communication equipment and sports/entertainment goods returned to double-digit growth [1][7]. - The postal bureau predicts a 22% year-on-year increase in express delivery volume for July, driven by the low average order value trend in e-commerce [1][8]. Company Performance - Alibaba's Taobao and Tmall reported a high single-digit growth in GMV, with a 1% increase in CMR, affected by the lower monetization rate from new business models [1]. - JD.com's revenue met expectations, with a decline in revenue from electrical appliances due to high base effects, while non-electrical categories maintained double-digit growth [1]. - Pinduoduo is focusing on GMV growth, while Douyin e-commerce is shifting its operational goals back to GMV from price competitiveness [1]. Valuation Overview - Pinduoduo (PDD US) is rated "Buy" with a target price of 213.0, currently trading at 145.1, indicating a potential upside of 46.8% [5]. - Alibaba (BABA US) is also rated "Buy" with a target price of 111.0, currently at 79.5, suggesting a potential upside of 39.6% [5]. - JD.com (JD US) is rated "Buy" with a target price of 41.0, currently at 27.0, indicating a potential upside of 51.9% [5].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for JD US [3]. Core Views - The report highlights that JD US's Q2 2024 performance met expectations, with revenue of RMB 291.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1%. The adjusted net profit rose by 69% year-on-year to RMB 14.5 billion, exceeding market expectations by 47% [5][6]. - The target price for JD US has been raised from USD 40 to USD 41, indicating a potential upside of 51.9% from the current price [5][6]. Financial Performance Summary - Q2 2024 revenue breakdown: - Product revenue: RMB 233.9 billion, with a 12% quarter-on-quarter increase and 0% year-on-year change. - Service revenue: RMB 57.5 billion, a 12% quarter-on-quarter increase and 6% year-on-year increase [9]. - Gross margin improved by 137 basis points year-on-year, driven by enhanced supply chain capabilities and reduced subsidies [5][6]. - Adjusted operating profit margin increased by 0.7 percentage points to 3.9% year-on-year [5][6]. Future Outlook - The revenue forecast for 2024 has been adjusted upwards by 13%, with an expected adjusted net profit growth of over 20% year-on-year [6]. - The report anticipates continued improvements in profit margins due to enhanced supply chain capabilities [6]. - The company aims to balance market share, profit growth, user experience, and stable shareholder returns [6]. Key Financial Metrics - Revenue projections for 2024E: RMB 1,139.1 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 5% [7]. - Adjusted net profit for 2024E is projected at RMB 42.8 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 24.9% [7]. - The price-to-earnings ratio for 2024 is expected to be 7 times, with a PEG ratio of 0.3 [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba (BABA US) with a target price of $111 or HKD 107 [1][21]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of GMV growth certainty in the upcoming quarter, driven by improved monetization strategies and stable market share [1][8]. - The company is expected to see continuous optimization in profit performance across various business segments over the next 1-2 years [1]. Financial Overview - Revenue for FY2023 was RMB 868,687 million, with a projected increase to RMB 941,168 million in FY2024, reflecting an 8.3% year-on-year growth [3]. - Net profit for FY2023 was RMB 141,379 million, expected to rise to RMB 157,479 million in FY2024, indicating a 12.2% growth [3]. - The adjusted EBITA for the first quarter of FY2025 is projected to be RMB 48.8 billion, with a profit margin of 43% [25]. Business Segment Performance - Taobao's GMV experienced a high single-digit growth year-on-year, with a 1% increase in CMR, although this was partially offset by a decline in monetization rates due to the rise of lower-commercialization new business models [4][8]. - International business revenue grew by 32% year-on-year, driven by the performance of AliExpress and key market expansions, despite an increase in losses due to higher investments in cross-border business [4][9]. - Cloud revenue increased by 6% year-on-year, supported by strong growth in public cloud and AI-related products, with paid users of Alibaba Cloud's AI platform increasing by over 200% quarter-on-quarter [4][26]. - Local services revenue grew by 12%, benefiting from increased orders on Ele.me and Gaode, with significant improvements in loss margins [4][27]. - Cainiao's revenue rose by 16%, primarily due to increased investment in cross-border logistics fulfillment services [10][28].

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of JD Logistics (2618 HK) to "Buy" [5][6][16] Core Insights - JD Logistics reported a significant improvement in profits for Q2 2024, with a notable increase in gross margin, reflecting enhanced operational efficiency. The revenue growth is expected to be in line with current forecasts, and the company's valuation remains below the industry average [5][6] - The target price has been raised to HKD 11.3 based on a 13x P/E ratio for 2024, indicating a potential upside of 45.2% from the current price [5][16] Revenue and Profit Summary - For Q2 2024, total revenue reached RMB 44.2 billion, an 8% year-on-year increase, with adjusted net profit soaring to RMB 2.5 billion, nearly doubling from the previous year, achieving a net profit margin of 5.6%, the highest since the company went public [5][7][11] - The gross profit margin improved by 3.6 percentage points, primarily due to a reduction in outsourcing costs as a percentage of revenue [5][8] Financial Forecast Adjustments - The revenue forecast for 2024 has been slightly adjusted to reflect an 8% year-on-year growth, while the adjusted net profit forecast has been increased by 16%, resulting in a profit margin of 2.8% [5][12] - The company aims to continue optimizing its network structure and enhancing technological capabilities to achieve steady profit growth [5][12] Financial Performance Metrics - The report highlights that JD Logistics' current price corresponds to a 10x P/E ratio for 2024, which is below the industry average, reinforcing the rationale for the upgraded rating and target price [5][12][18] - The financial data indicates a projected revenue of RMB 180.6 billion for 2024, with a gross profit of RMB 16.8 billion and a net profit of RMB 3.3 billion [18][19]

交银国际研究 行业更新 2024 年 8 月 12 日 电池行业月报 海外放缓扩产步调；中国电池产销保持增长，但库存压力犹存 中国动力电池产销保持增长，但1-7 月产装率达2.1。根据中国汽车动力电 池产业创新联盟公众号，产量：7月，我国电池总产量为91.8 GWh，同比/ 环比分别+33.1%/+8.6%：1-7 月，累计产量为 521.8 GWh，同比+36.2%：销 量：7 月，我国电池销量为 86.3 GWh，同比/环比分别+49.9%/-6.4%。1-7 月，电池累计销量为 488.9 GWh，同比+41.9%。其中，动力电池当月销量 为 62.2 GWh，同比+19.0%；1-7 月累计销量为 380.3 GWh，同比+25.3%。 装车量：7 月，我国动力电池装车量 41.6 GWh，同比/环比分别+29.0%/- 2.9%。1-7 月，我国动力电池累计装车量 244.9 GWh，同比+32.8%。整体来 看，2024 年 1-7 月我国动力电池产装率达 2.13，高于 2022/2023 年的 1.84/1.91，动力电池库存压力仍然较大。 磷酸铁锂电池增速强势，7 月全国装车量占比达 72. ...

交银国际研究 行业更新 行业评级 领先 2024 年 8 月 13 日 汽车行业 1H24 海外电池装车增速放缓，但中国电池企业海外市占率进一步提升 全球电池装车量增速放缓，中国电池企业海外市场份额显著提升。根据 SNE Research 数据，1H24 全球（除中国外）电池装车量达 165.3 GWh，同 比+13.1%（对比2023年同比增速44%），我们认为增速下滑主要因为期内 海外电动车销量增速放缓至+8.2%（对比 2023 年的+32%）。但中国电池企 业市场份额提升明显，1H24 前十大电池装车企业中，有四家中国企业， 包括宁德时代/比亚迪/中创新航/孚能科技，期内合计装车量57.4 GWh（同 比+28.7%），市场份额提升 4.4 个百分点至 34.8%。 海外市场，日系和韩系电池厂商市场份额下滑。1）韩国电池企业整体市 场份额同比下降 1.8 个百分点。1H24，LG Energy Solution/SK on/Samsung SDI 合计电池装车量为 77.4 GWh（同比+8.9%），市场份额同比下降 1.8 个 百分点至 46.9%。其中，Samsung SDI 期内同比增长 17. ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Neutral" investment rating to the company [3]. Core Insights - The company's online business remains stable, and copyright operations have exceeded expectations, with a focus on the incremental contributions from short dramas and derivative products [1]. - In the first half of 2024, the company reported revenue of 4.2 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 28%, which is better than the market expectation of 13% [1]. - Adjusted net profit for the same period was 700 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 16%, surpassing market expectations by 7% [1]. - The report anticipates a slight decline in overall revenue for the year, primarily due to a robust core paid platform and increased third-party platform collaborations offsetting the contraction in Tencent's channel [2]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2022: 7,626 million RMB, 2023: 7,012 million RMB, 2024E: 7,804 million RMB, 2025E: 7,995 million RMB, 2026E: 8,334 million RMB, with a projected growth rate of 11.3% for 2024 [3][8]. - The adjusted net profit forecast for 2024 is set at 1.4 billion RMB, reflecting a growth rate of 25% compared to 2023 [3][8]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to stabilize around 51% for 2024, with operational profit margins improving to 12% by 2025 [8][11]. Business Segments - The online business segment showed a slight decline of 2% year-on-year, with self-operated channels maintaining a steady MAU of 105 million and 8.8 million paid users [1][7]. - Copyright operations saw a significant increase of 73% year-on-year, driven by the release of major series and the expansion of core IP licensing [1][7]. - New business areas, including short dramas and derivative products, are expected to contribute positively, with the IP card game generating a GMV of 100 million RMB in the first half of the year [1][2]. Valuation - The target price for the company is set at 29 HKD, reflecting a potential upside of 14.4% from the current price of 25.35 HKD [1][9]. - The report slightly raises the adjusted net profit forecast for 2024 by 1% to 1.4 billion RMB, based on a compound annual growth rate of 21% from 2023 to 2025 [2][8].

交银国际研究 每日晨报 2024 年 8 月 13 日 今日焦点 | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------|----------| | | | | 宏观策略 | | | AI 全球选股策略 - 投资组合月度跟踪（ 2024 年 | 宏观策略 | | 7 月） | | | 蔡瑞 , CFA Carl.Cai@bocomgroup.com | | | | | 我们持续跟进 AI 和大宗组合的 2024 年 7 月回报表现、组合内公司新发 布业绩的摘要、以及大宗和 AI 两个行业的月度行业信息，为投资者提供 参考。本月报告重点关注的亮点在于 AI10 组合表现仍然超过代表纳指的 QQQ，累计跑赢 6.5 个百分点，成立至今涨幅为 20.3%。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|--------------|--------|--------|-----------------| | | | 收盘价 | 升跌 % | 年初至今 升跌 % | | | 恒指 | 17,112 | 0. ...

交银国际研究 财务模型更新 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 港元 15.90 港元 24.00↓ +50.9% 互联网 2024 年 8 月 12 日 途虎 (9690 HK) 客单价下降短期扰动收入增长，供应链优化下利润率提升趋势不变 我们调整了途虎 （9690 HK）的盈利预测及估值。我们认为公司将继续推进工 厂店拓展以及产品结构优化，预计全年稳步实现新增 1000 家工厂店目标以及 利润率的提升。但客单价下降超出预期，因此我们下调 2024 年利润 7%，目 标价从 26 港元下调至 24 港元，维持买入。 我们预计 2024 年上半年收入同比增 9%至 71 亿元（人民币，下同）。预计调 整后净利润 3.3 亿元，同比增 55%，对应净利润率 4.6%，同比提升 1.4 个百分 点。预计因客单价下降幅度超出预期，收入增长低于我们此前预期，公司通 过持续降本增效、优化产品结构带动利润率提升。预计上半年新开途虎工厂 店超过 400 家，稳步推进达成全年新开 1000 家门店目标，新开门店仍以下沉 地区为主。 预计 2024 年收入同比增 7%至 146 亿元，调整后净利润 7.4 亿元，均较我们此 前预期下调 ...