2024年7月18日 Territy File e contribution 分 忻师 . T 政 宁 星榜 云牌专题是在线理而至,悬在MN三药企头上的 [NOT]前期 全球原标签专利到期按收入计的风险敞口达30%。我们 认为人有前仍存在专利悬崖的潜在影响被低估或高估的 尚未完全反映在相关企业的当前股价中。 - 首次看 無 同時代表 MNC大药企全副武装应对专利悬崖,在MNC大药企中, 我们建议重点关注阿斯利康、诺华、艾伯维、默沙东、 罗氏等公司的创新管线进展。 AZN US 中国创新药板块的估值仍未完全反映巨大的产品出海潜 力,随着更多重磅数据和交易落地,估值有较大修复容 间,建议重点关注康方、康诺亚、石药人 先声等公司。 日的參與自己 重点公司研究:我们看好阿斯利康相对分散的专利悬崖 风险和在ADC、呼吸 / 免疫等赛道上的差异化布局。对于 BMS,我们认为重磅品种专利集中到期的风险仍未完全 反映日股价中,估值中枢仍将进一步下行。 BMY US 交報国际研究 行业制析 2024 年 7 月 18 日 质 药行业-跨国 火方 药企 MNC 重磅产品专利悬崖下众生相:危与杭并存 ,龙头各显神通 ⊙ 全球原研究 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kuaishou (1024 HK) with a target price adjusted to HKD 55.00, down from HKD 75.00, indicating a potential upside of 17.6% from the current price of HKD 46.75 [1][2][9]. Core Insights - The report anticipates a slowdown in GMV growth for the second quarter, revising the e-commerce GMV growth forecast to 19% for Q2 and 21% for the full year, down from previous estimates of 25% and 24% respectively. This adjustment is attributed to a general market slowdown and increased competition in the live-streaming e-commerce sector [1][2]. - Kuaishou's advertising revenue is expected to grow rapidly, driven by AI-enabled marketing products, with a projected 22% year-on-year increase in Q2 advertising revenue to RMB 17.5 billion [1][2]. - The report projects a revenue of RMB 30.45 billion for Q2 2024, reflecting a 10% year-on-year growth, and an adjusted net profit of RMB 4.4 billion, representing a 63% increase year-on-year [1][2]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Kuaishou are as follows: - 2023: RMB 113.47 billion - 2024E: RMB 127.70 billion - 2025E: RMB 143.03 billion - 2026E: RMB 158.26 billion - The adjusted net profit is expected to reach RMB 18.22 billion in 2024, with a significant increase from RMB 10.27 billion in 2023 [3][10]. - The report highlights a gradual improvement in the company's revenue structure, which is expected to positively impact gross margins, with a projected gross margin of 55% for Q2 2024 [7][10].

短期广告仍承压，仍需关注 AIGC 对搜索及商业化改造进程 百度核心业务 2 季度收入增长仍承压。1）我们预计广告收入同比降 3%至 190亿元，较此前下调5%，主要因用户侧AI搜索改造影响传统广告点击， 及部分行业如地产、汽车等广告主需求较为疲软。公司预期 AI 生成搜索 内容占比将进一步提升（1 季度 11%），预计对广告商业化负面影响将持 续至下半年。2）云业务基本维持预期，预计收入 51 亿元，同比增 14%， 企业对 AI 大模型的需求及 API 调用随着使用量上升加速起量推动 AI 相关高 质量收入增长。利润层面，虽广告收入低于此前预期，但公司持续关注成 本控制及运营效率优化，维持核心经调整营运利润率预测 25%。 百度披露截至 1 季度，萝卜快跑在 10+个城市运营，季度单量 83 万（日单 9000+）。运营成本下降取决于远程安全员及新款车型 RT6 的量产上线： 1）武汉无人驾驶单量比例持续提升，2季度/4月为55%+/70%+，预计未来 几个季度达 100%。2）受武汉测试区域的扩大拉动，公司预计 2024 年内 在武汉投放 1000 辆 RT6（单车 20.46 万元），将有效优化运营成 ...

交银国际证券有限公司及/或其集团公司现持有东方证券股份有限公司、光大证券股份有限公司及Interra Acquisition Corp的已发行股本逾1%。 本报告之收取者透过接受本报告 (包括任何有关的附件)，表示幷保证其根据下述的条件下有权获得本报告，幷且同意受此中包含的限制条件 所约束。任何没有遵循这些限制的情况可能构成法律之违反。 本报告为高度机密，幷且只以非公开形式供交银国际证券的客户阅览。本报告只在基于能被保密的情况下提供给阁下。未经交银国际证券事 先以书面同意，本报告及其中所载的资料不得以任何形式(i)复制、复印或储存，或者(ii) 直接或者间接分发或者转交予任何其它人作任何用 途。 交银国际证券、其联属公司、关联公司、董事、关联方及/或雇员，可能持有在本报告内所述或有关公司之证券、幷可能不时进行买卖、或 对其有兴趣。此外，交银国际证券、其联属公司及关联公司可能与本报告内所述或有关的公司不时进行业务往来，或为其担任市场庄家，或 被委任替其证券进行承销，或可能以委托人身份替客户买入或沽售其证劵，或可能为其担当或争取担当幷提供投资银行、顾问、包销、融资 或其它服务，或替其从其它实体寻求同类型之服务。投 ...

交银国际研究 行业更新 2024 年 7 月 16 日 电池行业月报 电池出口增长强劲,多款快充/超充电池新品发布;关注行业规范落地执行情况 下游需求带动动力电池装车量,磷酸铁锂装车占比进一步提升。产量:6 月,我国电池总产量为 84.5 GWh,同比增长 28.7%;1-6 月,累计产量为 430.0 GWh,同比增长36.9%。销量:6 月,我国电池销量为92.2 GWh,同 比增长 51.2%。1-6 月,电池累计销量为 402.6 GWh,同比增长 40.3%。其 中,动力电池当月销量为 69.3 GWh,同比增长 37.0%;1-6 月累计销量为 318.1 GWh,同比增长 26.6%。装车量:6 月,我国动力电池装车量 42.8 GWh,同比增长 30.2%。其中三元电池/磷酸铁锂电池装车量分别为 11.1 GWh/31.7 GWh,分别同比增长 10.2%/39.3%,磷酸铁锂占比总装车量 74.0%。1-6 月,我国动力电池累计装车量 203.3 GWh,同比增长 33.7%。 6 月电池出口整体表现强劲。6 月,我国电池合计出口 18.4 GWh,同比增 长 67.8%,合计出口占当月销量 ...

交银国际研究 行业更新 2024 年 7 月 15 日 行业与大盘一年趋势图 7/23 11/23 3/24 7/24 -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 行业表现 MSCI中国指数 资料来源: FactSet 6 月电商月报:大促错期,2 季度行业中个位数增长 估值概要 赵丽, CFA zhao.li@bocomgroup.com (86) 10 8800 9788-8054 蔡涵 hanna.cai@bocomgroup.com (86) 10 8800 9788-8041 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------|---------------------------------|--------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Bilibili (BILI US) with a target price of $20.00, indicating a potential upside of 19.7% from the current closing price of $16.71 [1][38]. Core Insights - The report slightly raises the revenue forecast for Q2 2024 by 1% to RMB 6.1 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 16%, primarily driven by better-than-expected performance from new games [1]. - The report anticipates a gross margin expansion of 6% year-on-year and 1% quarter-on-quarter to 29%, attributed to economies of scale and an increased proportion of advertising revenue [1]. - The adjusted net loss for the company is expected to narrow to RMB 330 million, a 66% reduction compared to the same period last year [1]. Revenue Forecast - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at RMB 26.6 billion, reflecting an 18% year-on-year increase, with mobile gaming revenue expected to reach RMB 5.4 billion, a 34% increase [13][36]. - The report highlights that the game "Sanmou" is expected to contribute significantly to revenue, accounting for 26% and 43% of game income in 2024 and 2025, respectively [36]. Financial Performance - The report outlines a forecast for total revenue growth from RMB 22.5 billion in 2023 to RMB 30.2 billion in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 13.6% [13]. - The adjusted net profit is expected to improve from a loss of RMB 3.4 billion in 2023 to a profit of RMB 1.1 billion in 2025 [13]. Market Position and Strategy - The report emphasizes the company's focus on enhancing its advertising infrastructure and expanding its game portfolio, particularly in traditional genres like RPGs and card games [12]. - The advertising revenue from key sectors such as gaming, digital appliances, and online education has shown significant growth, with increases of 30%, 50%, and 100%, respectively [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for TAL Education Group (TAL US) with a target price of USD 15.50, representing a potential upside of 47.3% from the current price of USD 10.52 [1][10]. Core Insights - The report highlights TAL's strong revenue growth, projecting a 42% year-over-year increase in Q1 FY2025, with expected revenues of USD 390 million [2][3]. - The company is expanding its teaching points significantly, with an estimated 14% quarter-over-quarter increase and a year-over-year growth of approximately 65-70% [2][3]. - TAL's hardware sales, particularly the new learning machine launched in May, are expected to drive high growth, with sales estimates of 70,000 to 80,000 units for the quarter [2][3]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for TAL are as follows: USD 1,490 million for FY2024, USD 2,036 million for FY2025, and USD 2,514 million for FY2026, with respective growth rates of 46.2%, 36.6%, and 23.5% [4][11]. - The adjusted net profit is expected to reach USD 142 million in FY2025, with a significant increase of 67% year-over-year [3][4]. - The report estimates a non-GAAP net profit of USD 85 million for FY2024 and USD 142 million for FY2025, indicating a recovery from previous losses [11]. Valuation Metrics - The current price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 47 times for FY2025, with a price/earnings growth (PEG) ratio of 0.7, suggesting an attractive valuation [3][4]. - The report indicates a projected gross margin of 56.3% for FY2025, reflecting operational efficiency improvements [11].

量子技术作为新质生产力的重要代表之 或在计算、通信和测量领域为下游 降本增效,提高生产效率 量子技术代表先进生产力的发展方向,是各国长期投资发展的重要领域。近年 ess 全球量子技术集中在量子计算领域,2023年,我国在量子计算领域融资规 来, 模占全球的8.1%。但我们认为,我国量子产业未来的规模或远大于当前的融资 投入。我们预测2030年我国在量子产业中的总体市场份额或可达15%。 量子技术应用广泛,市场潜力亟待开发,细分领域中,我们认为量子计算市场 潜力最为可观。 到2030年市场规模或可 达到 2,391亿美元 , 对 应 2023-30年65%复合 年增长率,其中计算/通 信 / 测 量 分 别 为 2,155 /197/38.Z亿美元。 建议关注国盾量子 态源量至等中国领 先企业,以及lonQ, IBM、 谷歌等海外 大型企业量子计算 的进展。 分析师 | 玉犬卫 董理 & es 交银国际研究 行业剖析 科技行业 量子技术:新质生产力的下一个突破口? 量子技术作为新质生产力的重要代表之一,或在计算、通信和测量领域为 下游降本增效,提高生产效率。量子技术利用量子叠加态和量子纠缠等不 同量子技术实现高 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for Yadea (1585 HK) and Ninebot (689009 CH), while providing a "Neutral" rating for Greendot (2451 HK) [4][6]. Core Insights - The electric two-wheeler industry in China is experiencing new developments and opportunities driven by three main factors: the unfulfilled demand for replacement due to new national standards, the favorable old-for-new policies, and the growth in both consumer (To C) and business (To B) demand. The forecasted sales for electric two-wheelers in China from 2024 to 2027 are 53.6 million, 55.2 million, 58 million, and 61.5 million units respectively [2][3][28]. - The global demand for electric two-wheelers is increasing, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25.6% from 2023 to 2027 for overseas markets. Chinese manufacturers have advantages in supply chain and cost, with export sales expected to grow at an 11.5% CAGR [3][33][38]. Summary by Sections Chinese Market - The industry is driven by three main factors: 1. The demand for replacement due to new national standards is not fully released, with over 40% of vehicles needing replacement [8][13]. 2. The old-for-new policy is beneficial, with a significant existing vehicle base of nearly 400 million units, potentially increasing the replacement rate by 2-3 percentage points [16]. 3. New demand from both consumer and business sectors is contributing to sales growth, with electric two-wheelers serving as a complement to four-wheel vehicles in congested urban areas [18][21]. Overseas Market - The global demand for electric two-wheelers is steadily increasing, with a projected CAGR of 25.6% from 2023 to 2027. By 2027, overseas markets are expected to account for 33% of global sales [33][38]. - China, as the largest manufacturer, benefits from production scale, supply chain advantages, and diverse product offerings, with exports expected to grow at an 11.5% CAGR from 2022 to 2027 [38][43]. Industry Integration - The report highlights that industry consolidation is timely, favoring leading companies with competitive advantages. Future competition will focus on product differentiation and high-quality profit growth [4][6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of companies that maintain sales growth, prioritize product quality, and invest in research and development [4][6]. Company Analysis - Yadea (1585 HK) is expected to continue increasing its market share, with growth anticipated in both domestic and overseas markets [6]. - Ninebot (689009 CH) is positioned for growth through multiple business drivers, including electric two-wheelers and robotics [6]. - Greendot (2451 HK) is expanding its store capacity but needs to improve profitability [6].