Core Insights - The report highlights the acceleration of adjustments in medical insurance and commercial insurance directories, suggesting a strategic approach to invest in undervalued quality stocks during market corrections [1][2] - The innovation drug sector is expected to benefit from a gradually forming insurance guarantee model, which may alleviate challenges related to hospital admissions and reimbursement payments [2] Market Review - The Hang Seng Healthcare Index fell by 1.4% this week, underperforming the broader market, while sectors such as internet medicine, CXO, and traditional Chinese medicine showed relatively better performance [1] - Domestic institutional investors maintained stable holdings through the Hong Kong Stock Connect, while foreign investors slightly reduced their positions since mid-year, although both continue to increase their investments in innovative pharmaceutical companies [1] Investment Recommendations - Focus on companies with significant data releases at the upcoming ESMO conference, such as Kangfang Biologics, Kelun-Biotech, and Rongchang Biologics [2] - Suggested investment strategies include gradually positioning in the innovative drug sector during market pullbacks, with specific recommendations for: 1) Innovative drugs: Companies like 3SBio and Eucure Biopharma have rich short-term catalysts and their valuations do not yet reflect the core value of major products [2] 2) CXO: Leaders in this segment are expected to benefit from high downstream demand and improving financing conditions, such as WuXi AppTec [2]

Industry Rating - The report rates the pharmaceutical industry as "Leading" [1] Core Insights - The adjustment of medical insurance and commercial insurance directories is accelerating, suggesting a favorable environment for undervalued quality stocks during market corrections [4][5] - The report emphasizes the importance of timing and stock selection in the current market, particularly after a broad rally in innovative drug stocks [4] - The upcoming ESMO conference in October is highlighted as a key event, with specific companies recommended for attention due to potential significant data releases [4] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index fell by 1.1% and the Hang Seng Healthcare Index decreased by 1.4% during the week of September 16-23, 2025, ranking 5th among 12 industry indices [4][6] - Sub-industry performance varied, with Internet medicine showing a slight increase of 0.9%, while sectors like medical devices and hospitals saw declines of 5.2% and 8.2%, respectively [4][6] Valuation Overview - The report provides a detailed valuation summary for various companies, with notable price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the pharmaceutical sector, such as 31.0x for prescription drugs and 14.1x for biopharmaceuticals [15] - The average P/E ratio across the sector is reported at 57.0, indicating a diverse valuation landscape [3] Institutional Holdings - As of September 23, 2025, domestic institutional holdings through Hong Kong Stock Connect remained stable at 22.2%, while foreign holdings slightly decreased to 38.7% [34][38] - The report notes a trend of increased foreign investment in innovative drug companies, with specific companies like InnoCare and Legend Biotech seeing significant increases in holdings [38][40] Regulatory Developments - The report discusses the recent adjustments to the national basic medical insurance directory and commercial insurance innovative drug directory, with a low approval rate for submitted drugs [5] - The 11th batch of national drug procurement has been announced, with new rules aimed at stabilizing clinical practices and ensuring quality [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Alibaba (BABA US) is "Buy" with a target price of $200.00, indicating a potential upside of 13.4% from the current price of $176.44 [1][2][11]. Core Insights - Alibaba is actively expanding its AI capabilities, showcasing a comprehensive AI stack at the Yunqi Conference, including flagship models and high-density AI servers. The company is also investing heavily in AI infrastructure, with plans to enhance its global data center energy efficiency by tenfold by 2032 [7]. - The report highlights Alibaba's strong revenue growth projections, with expected revenues of RMB 996,347 million in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.9% [6][12]. - The company's net profit is projected to be RMB 158,122 million in 2025, with a slight increase from the previous year, and a Non-GAAP net profit of RMB 158,122 million is also anticipated [6][12]. Financial Overview - The market capitalization of Alibaba is approximately $395.48 billion, with a year-to-date stock price increase of 108.09% [4]. - The report provides a detailed financial outlook, including projected revenues and net profits for the next five years, indicating a steady growth trajectory [6][12]. - Key financial metrics include a projected P/E ratio of 19.2 for 2025 and an expected EPS of RMB 65.30 [6][12]. Stock Performance - Alibaba's stock has shown significant performance, with a 51% increase in price this month alone, reflecting strong market sentiment [7]. - The stock's 52-week high is $176.44, while the low is $80.53, indicating substantial volatility and recovery in its stock price [4]. Valuation and Outlook - The report suggests that Alibaba's valuation is attractive, with a target price adjustment based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) analysis, reflecting the company's diverse business segments [7]. - The anticipated growth in AI applications and infrastructure is expected to drive further stock appreciation and market confidence in Alibaba's long-term prospects [7].

Core Insights - Alibaba's Cloud Summit showcased advancements in AI technology, including the release of multiple models such as Qwen3-Max, Qwen3-VL, and Qwen3-Omni, indicating a strong focus on AI capabilities and ecosystem development [1][2] - Alibaba's CEO predicts that global AI investments will exceed $4 trillion over the next five years, with large models expected to become the next generation of operating systems [1] - The target price for Alibaba has been raised to $200, reflecting a potential upside of 13.4% from the current closing price of $176.44 [1][2] Company and Industry Summary - Alibaba is actively advancing its AI infrastructure with an investment plan of 380 billion yuan, aiming for a tenfold increase in global data center energy efficiency by 2032 [2] - The company has established a comprehensive stack in chip computing, applications, and services, which is expected to accelerate the implementation of AI applications in China [2] - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba, indicating confidence in its growth potential within the AI sector [2]

交银国际研究 每日晨报 2025 年 9 月 23 日 主要商品及外汇价格 今日焦点 | 中微公司 | | 688012 CH | | --- | --- | --- | | 刻蚀设备优势明显，产品进一步多元化，首予 | 评级: | 买入 | | 买入 | | | | 收盘价: 人民币 254.00 | 目标价: 人民币 280.00 | 潜在涨幅: +10.2% | | 王大卫, PhD, CFA | Dawei.wang@bocomgroup.com | | 存储器电路结构复杂拉动刻蚀/沉积需求：此前，我们曾在主题报告和北 方华创首次覆盖报告中阐述逻辑电路制程升级会增加刻蚀和沉积设备需 求，本文中，我们深度剖析 3D NAND 的制作过程，随着 3D NAND 的堆 叠层数增加，沉积和刻蚀步骤也将相应增加，对刻蚀的深宽比要求也在 提高。3D NAND 对光刻设备需求较低，而对刻蚀设备需求则较高，这正 是中微公司擅长的领域。 | | | 三个月 | 年初至 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收盘价 | 升跌% | 今升跌 | | 布兰特 | 66.69 | -13.38 | - ...

Global Macro - The Federal Reserve's September FOMC meeting resulted in a 25 basis point rate cut to the 4.00%-4.25% range, viewed as a typical preemptive measure rather than a response to severe labor market deterioration [1][2] - The labor market is slowing but remains manageable, with low unemployment reflecting a "weak balance" rather than a robust recovery, making significant rate cuts unlikely to rapidly improve employment [1][2] - The dot plot indicates a division among policymakers, with 10 out of 19 supporting two or more rate cuts this year, while 9 support fewer than two, suggesting cautious expectations for future cuts [2] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,545, reflecting a 0.09% increase, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose by 0.17% to 9,472 [4] - Major global indices showed varied performance, with the Dow Jones increasing by 0.37% and the S&P 500 by 0.49%, while the FTSE 100 and CAC 40 experienced slight declines [4] Economic Data Releases - Upcoming U.S. economic data includes the Manufacturing PMI for September, expected at 53.00, and Durable Goods Orders for August, anticipated to decline by 2.80% year-on-year [6] - The second quarter GDP growth is projected at 3.30%, a significant recovery from the previous -0.50% [6] Sector Insights - The consumer sector is expected to see moderate recovery with multiple opportunities in the second half of 2025, as indicated in a recent deep dive report [6] - The renewable energy sector continues to face uncertainties but remains attractive for investment, particularly in dividend stability [6] - The automotive industry is accelerating the penetration of hybrid technologies, with a focus on autonomous driving and robotics [6]

Global Macro - The Federal Reserve's September FOMC meeting resulted in a 25 basis point rate cut to the 4.00%-4.25% range, characterized as a typical preemptive easing to guard against economic downturns, particularly in the labor market [2][4] - The current economic environment is significantly better than the same period last year, with the labor market showing signs of cooling but not reaching crisis levels, allowing for a more flexible monetary policy [4][24] - The Fed's current policy reflects a moderate tolerance for short-term inflation risks, with recent labor market cooling potentially helping to alleviate cost-push inflation pressures [18][24] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor market has become a key consideration for the Fed's short-term policy decisions, with non-farm payroll growth slowing significantly, averaging only 29,000 jobs per month as of August [9][14] - The current low unemployment rate is seen as a "weak balance," influenced by structural factors such as immigration restrictions, which limit the labor supply and complicate the Fed's data-driven decision-making [9][12] - A significant rate cut may not lead to a rapid improvement in the labor market, and could instead trigger unexpected inflation increases, suggesting that a more moderate easing approach is preferable [9][18] Economic Forecasts - The Fed's economic projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 show an optimistic outlook, with GDP forecasts being raised and unemployment rate expectations lowered slightly, while inflation predictions were only marginally adjusted upward [24][28] - The anticipated "broad fiscal" impact of the "Big and Beautiful Act" in 2026 and 2027 supports the upward revision of economic growth forecasts, indicating limited room for further rate cuts in the coming years [24][28] - The dot plot from the FOMC indicates significant divergence among committee members regarding future rate cuts, with a median showing potential for two more cuts this year, but with considerable uncertainty remaining [23][25]

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of the company to "Buy" with a target price raised to HKD 32.68, reflecting a potential upside of 16.9% from the current price of HKD 27.96 [1][5]. Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut of 25 basis points is expected to further lower interest expenses for the company, enhancing its valuation and performance in the real estate market [2][5]. - The acceleration of development in the Northern Metropolis area, as announced in the Chief Executive's policy address, is anticipated to benefit the company significantly due to its substantial agricultural land reserves in the region [5]. - The report projects an increase in the company's net asset value per share to HKD 65.4, up from HKD 57.6, based on improved liquidity and asset value expectations following the interest rate cuts [5]. Financial Overview - The company is expected to generate revenues of HKD 27,570 million in 2023, with a projected growth of 14.9% in 2025 [4][9]. - Core profit estimates for 2025 are set at HKD 9,257 million, reflecting a decrease of 5.3% compared to the previous year [4][9]. - The company's price-to-earnings ratio is projected to be 14.6 times in 2025, indicating a slight increase from 13.8 times in 2024 [4][9]. - The dividend yield is expected to remain stable at 6.4% over the forecast period [4][9]. Market Context - The report highlights that the anticipated further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could lead to a total reduction of 125 basis points by early 2027, which would positively impact the Hong Kong real estate sector [5]. - The company holds approximately 41.9 million square feet of agricultural land reserves, with a historical average cost of HKD 227 per square foot, which is significantly lower than recent land acquisition prices [5].

Group 1: Company Analysis - 恒基地产 - The report upgrades the rating of 恒基地产 to "Buy" with a target price raised to HKD 32.68, indicating a potential upside of +16.9% from the closing price of HKD 27.96 [1][2] - The reduction in the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4%-4.25% is expected to positively impact the performance of Hong Kong real estate companies throughout the remainder of 2025 and into 2026 [1] - The government's announcement of more flexible land acquisition and exchange models is anticipated to accelerate the development of the Northern Metropolis area, allowing 恒基地产 to monetize its substantial agricultural land reserves in the region [1] Group 2: Industry Analysis - 光伏行业 - A new national standard for energy consumption in the polysilicon industry has been significantly tightened, with the energy consumption limits for different grades of polysilicon set at 5, 5.5, and 6.4 kgce/kg, compared to previous limits of 5, 6, and 7.5 kgce/kg [3] - Following the implementation of this standard, companies failing to meet the third-grade standard will face mandatory rectification, and those that do not comply with the second-grade standard after rectification will be shut down, potentially reducing domestic polysilicon effective capacity by approximately 31.4% from 3.5 million tons to about 2.4 million tons [3] - The tightening of energy consumption standards reflects the government's strong commitment to eliminating excess capacity in the photovoltaic sector and is expected to drive the industry towards higher technical standards [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the solar industry, particularly favoring companies with lower energy consumption standards such as GCL-Poly Energy [2][3]. Core Viewpoints - The new energy consumption standards for polysilicon have been significantly tightened, potentially leading to over 30% of industry capacity being shut down. The effective capacity of polysilicon in mainland China is expected to decrease to approximately 2.4 million tons, a reduction of 31.4% from the existing capacity of 3.5 million tons [2]. - The tightening of energy consumption standards reflects the government's strong commitment to "anti-involution" in the solar industry, aiming to eliminate outdated production capacity through higher technical standards [2]. - The report highlights that only a limited number of new capacities will be added in the future, with GCL-Poly and Tongwei being the only companies likely to meet the new standards [2]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The new national standards for polysilicon energy consumption were released on September 16, 2025, with stricter limits compared to previous versions [2]. - The new standards require existing companies to comply with level 3 standards, while new or expanded enterprises must meet level 2 standards [2]. Capacity and Supply - The implementation of the new standards is expected to significantly reduce the degree of overcapacity in the industry, although there will be a 12-month transition period that minimizes short-term supply impacts [2]. - The report anticipates that the new capacity additions will be very limited, primarily from GCL-Poly and Tongwei [2]. Stock Recommendations - The report lists several companies with "Buy" ratings, including GCL-Poly Energy (3800 HK) with a target price of 1.59, indicating a potential upside of 14.4% [3]. - Other companies recommended for investment include Xinyi Solar (968 HK) and JinkoSolar (002865 CH), both of which are positioned favorably within the solar manufacturing sector [3].