证券研究报告 跟踪经济、掘金市场 策略专题：2024 年 12 月行业景气指数观察 | 主要观点： | | 报告日期：2025-03-13 | | --- | --- | --- | |  | 行业景气指数与报告期行业营业利润同比增速具有高度或较高相关 | 执业信息 | | | 性，t 期行业景气指数对预测未来行业利润同比增速具有较好的参考 | 崔威 策略分析师 执业编号：S1750523090001 | | | 意义。 | 电话：18603058668 | |  | 2024 年下半年，有色金属、证券、银行景气指数震荡上升，石油石 | 邮件：cuiwei@jypscnet.com | | | 化、钢铁、公用事业、交通运输等行业景气指数下滑，建筑材料、煤 | 免责声明 | | | 炭、汽车、电力设备、食品饮料、医药生物、房地产、建筑装饰行业 | 报告观点基于逻辑分析、 | | | 景气指数低位徘徊。 | 数据规律推演，并不能预知不 同市场主体在复杂约束下的多 | |  | 从绝对读数看，2024 年 12 月，有色金属、银行景气指数在 0 轴上 | 样选择结果。 | | | 方，基础化工、电子、机械设备 ...

Key Points Summary Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes embracing AI and the intelligent era, recommending sectors such as telecommunications, electronics, computing, media, humanoid robots, and mechanical manufacturing for investment opportunities [1][4] - The TMT sector, humanoid robots, and Hang Seng Technology Index saw significant increases, with TMT market turnover reaching historical highs [1] Economic Environment - In January, CPI showed moderate growth while PPI remained sluggish. Corporate cash flow pressures are significant, with a notable decrease in corporate RMB demand deposits [2] - The manufacturing PMI index showed signs of recovery, particularly among large enterprises, with a PMI of 52.5%, up 2.6 percentage points [2] Policy Environment - The policy environment remains supportive, focusing on technological innovation as a driver of new productivity and emphasizing domestic consumption as a key economic growth driver [3] - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission held a meeting to promote AI development among state-owned enterprises [3] Investment Strategy - The capital market is expected to revolve around three main themes: "true returns," "true growth," and "true hedging," corresponding to dividend assets, technological innovation, and gold [4] - A "barbell" strategy is recommended, focusing on undervalued dividend assets and technological innovation, while maintaining a dynamic asset allocation approach [4][7] - The market is currently in a range-bound phase, with structural risks and earnings disclosure risks to be monitored [7] Industry Performance - In January-February, 16 out of 31 Shenwan first-level industries saw gains, with TMT and manufacturing sectors leading the way. The computer sector had a cumulative increase of 13.8% [15] - The report recommends focusing on sectors such as humanoid robots, semiconductor, computing, and electrical equipment, which have shown strong performance [17] Fund Flow - As of February 28, southbound funds recorded a cumulative net inflow of 39,761.6 billion HKD, with significant monthly inflows in January and February [22] - Margin financing balances are near historical highs, indicating increased market activity and investor confidence [24] PMI and Industrial Performance - The manufacturing PMI for February was reported at 50.2%, indicating a recovery, particularly in large enterprises [53] - Industrial profits for 2024 showed a total profit of 74,310.5 billion CNY, a decline of 3.3% year-on-year, reflecting ongoing operational pressures [51]

Group 1 - The core theme of the 2025 strategy report is "light at the end of the tunnel" and "progress will be made" reflecting positive trends in the capital market despite challenges [1] - The capital market is expected to revolve around three main themes: "true returns," "true growth," and "true hedging," corresponding to dividend assets, technological innovation, and gold [4][7] - The report highlights the resilience of the Chinese economy, strong policy support, breakthroughs in technology, and relatively low valuation levels in the capital market, enhancing its risk resistance [4][7] Group 2 - The economic environment shows a stable GDP growth of 5% for 2024, with notable export growth but low consumption and investment growth due to real estate drag [2][27] - The industrial sector is facing profit declines, with industrial enterprise profit margins remaining low due to price pressures [2][27] - The manufacturing sector's GDP grew by 6% in 2024, with the information technology industry showing the highest growth rate of 10.9% [27][28] Group 3 - The policy environment indicates increased counter-cyclical adjustments, with a focus on stabilizing the capital market and promoting high-quality economic development [3][75] - A systematic plan for encouraging long-term capital inflows into the market has been established by multiple regulatory bodies [3][75] - Consumption subsidy policies have been expanded to include various electronic products, aiming to stimulate consumer spending [3] Group 4 - The report maintains previous recommendations for sectors such as banking, securities, and gold, while also introducing new recommendations for technology and healthcare sectors [7][16] - In January 2025, the gold ETF saw a 4.6% increase, while the Hang Seng ETF rose by 0.8%, indicating positive performance in these sectors [16][19] - The report notes that only 42.9% of the recommended sectors performed positively in January, with the securities sector experiencing a decline of 7.4% [16]

Key Points Summary Core Viewpoints - The theme of the 2025 strategy report is "light at the end of the tunnel" and "progress will be made." The capital market has felt the policy signals behind this theme, indicating a positive trend despite challenges ahead [1][3]. Economic Environment - In 2024, the GDP growth rate was 5%, with strong export growth but low consumer spending and investment due to real estate drag. Industrial profits declined, and the manufacturing PMI orders decreased [2][27]. Policy Environment - There is an increased effort in counter-cyclical adjustments, focusing on stabilizing the capital market and improving its structure and quality. A joint plan was issued to promote long-term capital market investments, with consumer subsidy policies being expanded [3][75]. Investment Strategy - The capital market in 2025 faces complex and variable conditions, with external risks and internal factors intertwining. However, the resilience of the economy, strong policy support, breakthroughs in technology, and relatively low valuation levels enhance the market's risk resistance. The market will revolve around three main themes: "real returns," "real growth," and "real hedging," corresponding to dividend assets, technological innovation, and gold [4][16]. Market Performance Review - In January 2025, gold prices reached a new high, and major global stock markets showed strength. The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.8%, while A-shares experienced a decline of 2.3% [10][12]. Industry Performance - Only four of the Shenwan first-level industries rose in January, with a 12.9% industry rise ratio. The non-ferrous metals sector increased by 4.5%, while several sectors, including real estate and non-bank financials, saw declines exceeding 5% [14][16]. Recommended Industries - The report maintains previous recommendations for banks, securities, the Hang Seng Index, Hong Kong dividend ETFs, and gold. New recommendations include sectors such as electronics (semiconductors), communications, and robotics [7][9]. Fund Flow Analysis - As of January 27, 2025, southbound capital saw a record net inflow of 38233.8 billion HKD, with a single-month net inflow of 1255.9 billion HKD, marking a new high in three years [22][24]. Industrial Profitability - In 2024, the total profit of industrial enterprises decreased by 3.3%, with a profit margin of 5.39%. The pressure on enterprises remains significant, with rising accounts receivable and extended recovery periods [55][57]. PMI Index - The manufacturing PMI in January was 49.1%, indicating a slight decline, with new orders and export orders also decreasing. The non-manufacturing PMI was at 50.2%, reflecting a decrease in business activity [58][61]. Consumer and Investment Trends - Consumer retail sales grew by 3.5% in 2024, while fixed asset investment increased by 3.2%. The real estate sector continued to face challenges, with a 10.5% decline in development investment [51][41].

Market Overview - Gold remains strong, with a slight decline of 3.4% in November, but a cumulative increase of 28.5% for the year [4] - U.S. stock markets saw significant gains in November, with all three major indices rising over 5%, and the Nasdaq and S&P 500 both exceeding 25% year-to-date [4] - The A-share market is expected to evolve in 2024, focusing on performance, growth, and valuation matching to avoid market volatility [3] Economic Environment Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.9% year-on-year in October, indicating continued low production prices [18] - Fixed asset investment in China grew by 3.4% year-on-year in the first ten months, with state-owned enterprises increasing by 6.2% [21] - Real estate sales area decreased by 15.8% year-on-year, but the decline is slowing, indicating potential stabilization in the housing market [23] Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on local government debt resolution and the recovery of corporate liquidity through the clearance of accounts receivable [76] - It suggests maintaining a strategy that includes dividend assets and technology innovation, with specific recommendations for sectors such as household appliances, public utilities, and telecommunications [78] - The report highlights the potential for value reassessment in industries like environmental protection due to improved cash flow from fiscal debt resolution [79]

4.1 中证转债 VS 中证全指 资料来源：WIND；金圆统一证券研究所 通过不同市场风格相对于中证全指的超额收益（当月、近 3 个月累计、近 6 个月累计）的对 比，可以识别出一段时期内占优的市场风格。 本报告选取 000903 中证 100 指数作为大市值风格的代理指数，选取 932000 中证 2000 指数作 为小市值风格的代理指数。 5 证券研究报告 图 2-3 中证 100VS 中证 2000 超额收益对比（数据截止时点：2024 年 11 月 29 日） 数据来源：WIND；金圆统一证券研究所 √ 图表显示，近半年以来小市值风格的表现明显占优，建议投资者下一阶段优先关注小市值 风格的股票。 三、行业/主题指数轮动 股票市场上，不同的行业/主题指数通常会有不同的涨跌节奏和涨跌周期。行业/主题指数轮 动本质上是利用这种涨跌节奏和涨跌周期的错位来进行投资的一种策略。 本报告主要关注低估值轮动和双动量轮动。 低估值轮动是在标的池中选择低估值品种进行投资，并定期调整。其盈利逻辑在于估值水平 的均值回归。 双动量轮动是在标的池中选择时序动量和截面动量均占优的品种进行投资，并定期调整。其 盈利逻辑在于追随市场 ...