Group 1 - The core theme of the 2025 strategy report is "light at the end of the tunnel" and "progress will be made" reflecting positive trends in the capital market despite challenges [1] - The capital market is expected to revolve around three main themes: "true returns," "true growth," and "true hedging," corresponding to dividend assets, technological innovation, and gold [4][7] - The report highlights the resilience of the Chinese economy, strong policy support, breakthroughs in technology, and relatively low valuation levels in the capital market, enhancing its risk resistance [4][7] Group 2 - The economic environment shows a stable GDP growth of 5% for 2024, with notable export growth but low consumption and investment growth due to real estate drag [2][27] - The industrial sector is facing profit declines, with industrial enterprise profit margins remaining low due to price pressures [2][27] - The manufacturing sector's GDP grew by 6% in 2024, with the information technology industry showing the highest growth rate of 10.9% [27][28] Group 3 - The policy environment indicates increased counter-cyclical adjustments, with a focus on stabilizing the capital market and promoting high-quality economic development [3][75] - A systematic plan for encouraging long-term capital inflows into the market has been established by multiple regulatory bodies [3][75] - Consumption subsidy policies have been expanded to include various electronic products, aiming to stimulate consumer spending [3] Group 4 - The report maintains previous recommendations for sectors such as banking, securities, and gold, while also introducing new recommendations for technology and healthcare sectors [7][16] - In January 2025, the gold ETF saw a 4.6% increase, while the Hang Seng ETF rose by 0.8%, indicating positive performance in these sectors [16][19] - The report notes that only 42.9% of the recommended sectors performed positively in January, with the securities sector experiencing a decline of 7.4% [16]

证券研究报告 跟踪经济、掘金市场 策略月报：相信光，追逐光（2025 年 2 月） 主要观点： 1、观点回顾 2025 年度策略报告的主题词是"柳暗花明"、"行则将至"。开年 首月，资本市场深刻感受到"柳暗花明"背后蕴含的政策信号，以及虽然 道阻且长，但"行则将至"所彰显的积极趋势。春节期间，海外 A 股市场 抵御了波动风险，港股创年内新高。从华为鸿蒙内核的自主可控，到 DeepSeek 算法突破，宇树机器人、"神农""天问"等楚才系列人形机 器人集中亮相，中国科技自立自强，创新再传佳音。新华社发布时评《现 象级的科技飞跃：相信光，追逐光》。 2、经济环境 2024 年经济平稳收官，全年 GDP 增速 5%。出口增长靓丽，消费低位 运行，受地产拖累投资增速低企。工业企业利润负增长，受价格端拖累工 业企业利润率维持低位。美国新关税政策给全球贸易带来不确定性，制造 业 PMI 订单下降。 3、政策环境 逆周期调节力度加大。坚持稳字当头，着力推动资本市场规模的合理 增长和结构质量的持续改善，努力为经济高质量发展贡献力量。中央金融 办、中国证监会等六部委联合印发《关于推动中长期资金入市工作的实施 方案》，对中长期资金 ...

Market Overview - Gold remains strong, with a slight decline of 3.4% in November, but a cumulative increase of 28.5% for the year [4] - U.S. stock markets saw significant gains in November, with all three major indices rising over 5%, and the Nasdaq and S&P 500 both exceeding 25% year-to-date [4] - The A-share market is expected to evolve in 2024, focusing on performance, growth, and valuation matching to avoid market volatility [3] Economic Environment Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.9% year-on-year in October, indicating continued low production prices [18] - Fixed asset investment in China grew by 3.4% year-on-year in the first ten months, with state-owned enterprises increasing by 6.2% [21] - Real estate sales area decreased by 15.8% year-on-year, but the decline is slowing, indicating potential stabilization in the housing market [23] Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on local government debt resolution and the recovery of corporate liquidity through the clearance of accounts receivable [76] - It suggests maintaining a strategy that includes dividend assets and technology innovation, with specific recommendations for sectors such as household appliances, public utilities, and telecommunications [78] - The report highlights the potential for value reassessment in industries like environmental protection due to improved cash flow from fiscal debt resolution [79]

4.1 中证转债 VS 中证全指 资料来源：WIND；金圆统一证券研究所 通过不同市场风格相对于中证全指的超额收益（当月、近 3 个月累计、近 6 个月累计）的对 比，可以识别出一段时期内占优的市场风格。 本报告选取 000903 中证 100 指数作为大市值风格的代理指数，选取 932000 中证 2000 指数作 为小市值风格的代理指数。 5 证券研究报告 图 2-3 中证 100VS 中证 2000 超额收益对比（数据截止时点：2024 年 11 月 29 日） 数据来源：WIND；金圆统一证券研究所 √ 图表显示，近半年以来小市值风格的表现明显占优，建议投资者下一阶段优先关注小市值 风格的股票。 三、行业/主题指数轮动 股票市场上，不同的行业/主题指数通常会有不同的涨跌节奏和涨跌周期。行业/主题指数轮 动本质上是利用这种涨跌节奏和涨跌周期的错位来进行投资的一种策略。 本报告主要关注低估值轮动和双动量轮动。 低估值轮动是在标的池中选择低估值品种进行投资，并定期调整。其盈利逻辑在于估值水平 的均值回归。 双动量轮动是在标的池中选择时序动量和截面动量均占优的品种进行投资，并定期调整。其 盈利逻辑在于追随市场 ...