Economic Outlook - The GDP growth for the second half of 2024 is projected to be around 5%, requiring a quarterly annualized growth rate of approximately 5.6% to meet the annual target[2][21]. - Inflation is expected to experience a mild recovery, with CPI growth continuing to rise while PPI remains negative[2][12]. Real Estate Market Adjustment - The adjustment in the real estate cycle is linked to a shift from core to non-core assets, with significant changes in the supply-demand relationship in the housing market[3][13]. - The transition of real estate from a core asset to a non-core asset is still ongoing, impacting overall economic growth[3][13]. Asset Allocation Insights - A-share markets are anticipated to present structural opportunities, particularly in light of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve[5][13]. - The short-term outlook for Chinese bonds should not underestimate the central bank's resolve, while the long-term outlook will depend on fundamental economic conditions[5][13]. - Commodity prices, particularly the copper-gold ratio, are expected to remain volatile, with both metals yet to fully realize their price increases[5][13]. Fiscal Policy and Government Revenue - Fiscal revenue has faced pressure, with general public budget revenue declining by 2.8% year-on-year in the first half of 2024, falling short of the budgeted growth rate of 3.3%[23][24]. - The government may need to consider additional budget issuance or new bonds if revenue continues to lag, as fiscal spending must increase to stabilize domestic demand[24][26].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 11.64 [2][4] Core Views - The company achieved revenue of 8.419 billion in 24H1, a year-on-year increase of 5%, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 738 million, a year-on-year increase of 7% [1] - In 24Q2, the company achieved revenue of 5.084 billion, a year-on-year increase of 40%, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 394 million, a year-on-year increase of 40% [1] - The company's compound fertilizer sales volume increased by 12.38% year-on-year in 24H1, with ordinary compound fertilizer sales up 10.16% and new compound fertilizer sales up 19.45% [1] - The company's gross profit margin and net profit margin in 24H1 were 16.06% and 8.79%, respectively, up 1.17 and 0.14 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The company has formed an integrated industrial chain advantage, with an annual production capacity of 9.83 million tons of high-concentration phosphate compound fertilizers, 900,000 tons of phosphate rock, and 50,000 tons of lithium iron phosphate [1] Financial Projections - The report forecasts the company's net profit attributable to the parent company for 24-26 to be 1.392 billion, 1.594 billion, and 1.907 billion, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10.5x, 9.2x, and 7.7x [2] - The company's revenue is expected to grow by 6.6%, 4.5%, and 5.1% in 24-26, respectively [2] - The company's net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow by 15.4%, 14.5%, and 19.7% in 24-26, respectively [2] Industry Outlook - The compound fertilizer industry is expected to recover in 24H1, with the company's volume and profit expected to rebound [1] - The company's upstream phosphate rock layout is expected to further expand, enhancing its integrated industrial chain advantage [1]

嗯 行业周报 | 基础化工 巴斯夫暂停维 A 等产品交付，玲珑、中策推进海外布局 化工行业周观点（20240805-20240811） 证券研究报告 2024 年 08 月 11 日 核心结论 市场回顾：本周，基础化工指数下跌 1.28%，基础化工指数同期跑赢大盘 0.28pct。石油石化指数下跌 0.52%，石油石化指数同期跑赢大盘 1.04pct。 申万基础化工板块个股，亚士创能(+15.17%)、名臣健康(+14.86%)、辉隆股 份(+13.42%)位列涨幅前三，三级子板块涨幅前三：民爆用品(+3.72%)、复 合肥(+2.48%)、聚氨酯(+1.91%)。原油价格有所回升。我们重点跟踪的 62 种化工产品中，本周有 15/33 种产品价格周环比上涨/下跌。 氟化工：本周 R32、R125 价差下降，R134a 价差上涨。截至 8 月 9 日，R32、 R125、R134a 价格分别为 36500、31000、32000 元/吨，价差分别为 24151、 15462、17744 元/吨，环比上月同期价差分别+1289.3、-3107.6、+2541.1 元/吨。推荐巨化、永和，建议关注三美、东岳、昊华 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][7]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 4.945 billion and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.056 billion for H1 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 14% and 4% respectively [1]. - The brokerage business market share is steadily increasing, supported by strong performance in proprietary trading [1]. - The fund business revenue has declined due to market conditions, but there was a quarter-on-quarter improvement in Q2 2024 [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For H1 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 4.945 billion and a net profit of 4.056 billion, with Q2 2024 figures at 2.489 billion and 2.102 billion respectively, showing a year-on-year decline of 15% and 4% [1]. - The revenue breakdown for H1 2024 shows fund business contributing 49%, brokerage business 20%, and credit business 31% [1]. Business Segments - Fund Business: Revenue for H1 2024 was 1.523 billion, down 29% year-on-year, with Q2 showing a revenue of 0.771 billion, indicating a quarter-on-quarter improvement [1]. - Brokerage Business: The net income from fees and commissions was 2.395 billion, a decrease of 4% year-on-year, with trading volume reaching 9.21 trillion [1]. - Proprietary Trading: The proprietary business revenue increased by 42% year-on-year to 1.634 billion, benefiting from fixed income operations [1]. Research and Development - R&D expenses increased by 10% year-on-year to 284 million, with ongoing advancements in AI capabilities [1].

晨会纪要 ⚫ 核心结论 分析师 【量化】指数化配置系列研究（1）：另类 ETF 交易策略：日内动量 本文基于指数的日内动量效应，设计了一个简洁而明确的 ETF 交易策略， 并在上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500 和中证 1000 这 4 个 ETF 上，取得了较 好的业绩表现。 【电力设备】风电行业 2024 年中期策略报告：全球海风装机需求共振，陆 风风机具备出口机会 国内海风开工在即，装机量有望高增。海外海上风电建设加速，海风多环节 具备出口机会。亚非拉区域具备陆风风机出口机会，国内陆上风电景气度提 升。综合三条选股主线来看，我们建议关注海缆、桩基、定转子、风机环节 未来投资机会。海缆环节推荐东方电缆、中天科技，建议关注亨通光电；桩 基环节推荐天顺风能，建议关注大金重工、泰胜风能、海力风电；风电主机 推荐金风科技、明阳智能，建议关注运达股份；定转子环节建议关注振江股 份。 【宏观】7 月通胀数据点评：食品价格带动 CPI 回升，PPI 仍然偏弱 食品价格上涨带动 CPI 回升 7 月 CPI 同比增长 0.5%，为去年 2 季度以来剔 除春节月份最大增幅。核心 CPI 同比增速回落。PPI 环比继续下 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2][4]. Core Views - The company achieved a main revenue of 1.004 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.98%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 42 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.48% [1]. - The company is expanding its overseas market in response to the digitalization needs of Chinese enterprises going abroad, with overseas market demand accounting for over 50% of its overseas revenue [1]. - The company has effectively controlled costs, resulting in profit growth that outpaces revenue growth, with a gross margin of 57.44%, down 3.72 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The company is continuously enriching its AI-driven applications, with industry-specific AI applications growing by 114% year-on-year [1]. - Future revenue projections for the company are 2.531 billion yuan, 2.888 billion yuan, and 3.260 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profits of 186 million yuan, 229 million yuan, and 271 million yuan for the same years [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company reported a main revenue of 1.004 billion yuan, a 10.98% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 42 million yuan, a 17.48% increase year-on-year [1]. - The company’s revenue from mainland China and non-mainland regions was 455 million yuan and 549 million yuan respectively, with growth rates of 7.37% and 14.16% [1]. Cost Management - The company has seen a decrease in sales, management, and R&D expense ratios compared to the previous year, contributing to a more significant growth in net profit compared to revenue [1]. AI Applications - The company is focusing on expanding its AI applications, with significant growth in industry-specific AI applications and the introduction of new general AI applications [1]. Future Projections - Revenue and net profit forecasts for the company indicate a positive growth trajectory, with expected revenues of 2.531 billion yuan in 2024 and net profits of 186 million yuan [2].

金工量化周报 分析师 | 冯佳睿 S0800524040008 | | --- | | 13564917688 | | fengjiarui@research.xbmail.com.cn | 相关研究 市场缩量下探，北水年度净流出 技术分析洞察（2024.08.05-2024.08.09） 核心结论 投资建议：本周北向资金继续流出，年度净买入额由正转负。周五市场成交 缩量到 5659 亿，沪深 300 等 ETF 未见成交放量，护盘资金没有明显动作。 主要宽基指数缩量下探窄幅振荡，正在构造中枢支撑。我们认为地量之后或 还有地价，市场磨底阶段需要注意控制仓位，耐心等待增量资金。1）行业 层面建议关注食品饮料、房地产、建筑材料、医药生物等板块，以上板块均 得到北向资金增持。2）主题层面建议关注转基因、特色小镇、毛发医疗、 建筑节能等概念，近期检测到技术走势斜率的排名靠前。3）个股层面近期 没有检测到横盘突破形态特征。 宽基指数：缩量下探构造支撑。本周中证全指录得 1.70%的跌幅，主要宽基 指数缩量下探。其中上证指数跌幅 1.48%，创业板指跌幅 2.60%，微盘股指 数涨幅 0.38%。上证 50 本周向下笔走 ...

行业周报 | 建筑材料 深圳推出商品房收购政策 玻璃价格继续调整 建材行业周报 20240805-20240811 核心结论 1、水泥：本周全国水泥均价 382.2 元/吨，环比持平，同比+20.67 元/吨（+5.72%）。 全国水泥煤炭价差 271.54 元/吨，环比-1.17 元/吨（-0.43%），同比+19.11 元/ 吨（+7.57%）。全国库容比 66.31%，环比-0.75pct，同比-6.94pct。全国出货率 48.8%，环比+2.1pct，同比-4.0pct。 2、玻璃：本周国内浮法均价 1456.96 元/吨，环比-14.01 元/吨（-0.95%），同比 -628.41 元/吨（-30.1%）。玻璃-纯碱-天然气价差 205.30 元/吨，环比-58.21 元/ 吨（-22.09%），同比-654.90 元/吨（-76.13%）。库存 6049 万重箱，环比-2.48%。 3、玻纤：本周无碱玻璃纤维纱均价 4029 元/吨，环比持平；中碱玻璃纤维纱均 价为 5350 元/吨，环比持平；缠绕直接纱均价 3750 元/吨，环比持平；电子纱均 价 9200 元/吨，环比持平。 4、储能：本 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [3][4] Core Insights - The company's revenue and profit are steadily recovering, with a high dividend policy maintained. In the first half of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 5.967 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.17%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.493 billion yuan, up 11.74% year-on-year [3] - The demand for advertising in daily consumer goods remains strong, with the company's main advertising clients being in the daily consumer goods sector, accounting for 64% of the total advertising revenue in the first half of 2024, which is an increase of 3 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The company is expanding its media points in lower-tier and overseas markets, with a total of approximately 1.097 million self-operated elevator TV media devices as of July 31, 2024, showing growth in various market tiers [3] Financial Performance - The company's earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.37, 0.40, and 0.43 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2][3] - Revenue forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 12.9 billion yuan, 13.9 billion yuan, and 14.9 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.9% for both 2024 and 2025, and 7.3% for 2026 [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 5.361 billion yuan, 5.780 billion yuan, and 6.159 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 11%, 8%, and 7% respectively [3] Dividend Policy - The company has maintained a high dividend level, distributing 1.00 yuan per 10 shares (including tax) during the reporting period, totaling 1.444 billion yuan, with a dividend payout ratio of 57.92% [3] - The company plans to distribute cash dividends of no less than 80% of the net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses for the next three years, indicating a stable dividend policy [3]

行业周报|电力设备 证券研究报告 新型电力系统方案推动电网设备投资，持续推荐风电和光储板块 2024 年 08 月 10 日 电新行业周报 20240805-20230811 核心结论 专题：《加快构建新型电力系统行动方案（2024—2027 年）》发布新型电力系统 9 项专项 行动。8 月 6 日，三部门联合印发《加快构建新型电力系统行动方案（2024-2027 年）》， 提出 9 项专项行动，为下一阶段电力系统建设、改造、升级提供政策支持。基于上述对 行动方案的详细解读，我们从源、网、荷、储四个环节对未来新型电力系统发展方向进 行展望。从优先级角度出发，我们从行动方案中可以总结到网>源>荷、储。源网荷储四 大环节下一阶段建设需求强劲，电力设备板块推荐思源电气、国电南瑞、东方电子、平 高电气、海兴电力、中国西电、伊戈尔、许继电气、华明装备、安科瑞、四方股份、泽 宇智能，建议关注青达环保、龙源技术、大连电瓷、望变电气、金盘科技。 多晶硅报价上涨，上半年光伏产量同比增长超过 30%。8 月 4 日，多晶硅 N 型料的主流 价格为每千克 37-42 元，多晶硅致密料的主流价格为每千克 34-37 元，N 型致密料 ...