晨会纪要 证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 30 日 核心结论 分析师 【医药生物】康宁杰瑞生物-B（9966.HK）深度报告：差异化平台助力创新 升级，双抗 ADC 管线未来可期 盈利预测与评级：预计 2025-2027 年公司营收为 4.32/4.84/5.96 亿元，同比 增长-32.5%/12.1%/23.0%，当前股价对应 PS 为 20.6x/18.4x/14.9x。考虑 到创新药布局成效显著，后续商业化放量增厚业绩、临床数据披露等催化较 多，向上弹性较大。首次覆盖，给予"买入"评级。 【有色金属】有色金属行业周报（2025.12.22 -2025.12.28）：宏观氛围偏暖 叠加供给约束，关注金属商品价格普涨行情 本周核心关注一：美国第三季度 GDP 远超预期，消费支撑增长但通胀与就 业隐忧并存。本周核心关注二：国家统计局公告，经最终核实 2024 年 GDP 现价总量为 1348066 亿元。本周核心关注三：工信部公告，预计 2025 年规 模以上工业增加值同比增长 5.9%。本周核心关注四：金属商品价格显著上 涨，现货白银价格年内涨幅扩大至逾 160%。 周颖 S080052008000 ...

Group 1: Yancoal Energy (兖矿能源) - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 9.448 billion, 12.019 billion, and 14.171 billion yuan for the years 2025-2027, with corresponding EPS of 0.94, 1.20, and 1.41 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of -39.61%, 27.21%, and 17.91% respectively [1][5][6] - The target price for the company is set at 16.27 yuan per share, with a "Buy" rating assigned based on the DDM valuation method [1][5] - The coal market is anticipated to maintain a stable price range of 700-800 yuan per ton from 2025 to 2027, despite concerns of oversupply [5][6] Group 2: Aiko Co., Ltd. (爱旭股份) - The company is projected to incur losses in 2025, with net profits expected to be -5.82 billion, 1.153 billion, and 2.266 billion yuan for 2025-2027, showing a significant recovery in 2026 and 2027 with growth rates of 89.1%, 298.1%, and 96.6% respectively [2][8][9] - The company is focusing on its ABC technology, which is expected to lead to a turnaround in performance, with a projected EPS of -0.27, 0.54, and 1.07 yuan for the same period [2][9] - Aiko's order backlog has increased by over 30% in Q3, indicating strong downstream demand [9] Group 3: Stable Medical (稳健医疗) - The company is focusing on dual business segments: medical and consumer, targeting high-value products such as advanced dressings and surgical consumables [11][12] - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 7.897 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 30.10%, and net profit of 732 million yuan, up 32.36% [12][13] - The company aims to maintain high-quality growth through global expansion and strategic planning, with projected EPS of 1.78, 2.13, and 2.44 yuan for 2025-2027 [12][13] Group 4: Home Appliances Industry - The white goods sector is experiencing stable production, with a focus on enhancing value through configuration [15][16] - The production of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines is expected to show varying growth rates, with air conditioners up by 11.0% and refrigerators by 3.6% year-on-year [16] - Companies like Haier, Midea, and Gree are highlighted as key players benefiting from market dynamics and overseas expansion [15][20]

策略周报 康波的轮回：2026 繁荣的起点 策略周末谈（1228） 核心结论 1、康波的轮回：康波萧条期，往往是追赶国的繁荣期 我们在 8.31《看向新高》中指出，2018 年中国人均 GDP 突破 1 万美元，正式 步入工业化成熟期：中国制造业强劲的对外出口能力，赚取大量的国民财富，带 来内需消费景气回升。这也是 19-21 年 A 股"核心资产牛市"的基础。 我们在 12.21《康波的年轮：2026 与 1978》中再次提示，当前的中国类似 1978 年的日本，也将迎来繁荣的起点：工业增加值和对外出口占全球份额持续高位， 贸易顺差和人均工资增长额也将继续高位扩张。 2、繁荣的梗阻：22-24 年中国实体部门的现金流量表和资产负债表受损 2019 年以来，全球进入康波萧条期，工业化成熟期的中国事实上迎来了追赶国 的繁荣期。但这种繁荣在 2022 年-2024 年遭遇梗阻—— （1）现金流量表：2022-24 年，美联储激进加息导致中美利差严重倒挂、人民 币贬值，大量的跨境资本外流，国民财富悬挂海外。与此同时，制造业产能过剩 引发的"内卷"，进一步损害了实体部门的自由现金流。 （2）资产负债表：20 年 8 ...

Global and A-share Market Overview - The A-share market experienced an overall increase last week, with the CSI 500 index showing the largest gain of 4.03% [12] - The Hang Seng Index in the Hong Kong market rose by 0.50% [12] - The performance of ETFs tracking the new energy sector was notably strong [12] ETF New Issuance Statistics - A total of 18 stock ETFs were reported in the A-share market last week, with 8 new stock ETFs established [17][19] - In the US market, 5 equity ETFs were newly established, including 2 active ETFs [17][23] Fund Flow in A-share Market - The top 10 ETFs with net inflows were primarily those tracking the CSI A500 index, while the top 10 with net outflows included ETFs related to the CSI 300 index, military industry, and TMT sectors [2][24] - The CSI A500 ETF saw a net inflow of approximately 106.75 million yuan, making it the leading ETF in terms of net inflow [28] - Conversely, the CSI 300 ETF experienced a net outflow of 34.08 million yuan [25] Fund Flow in US Market - In the US market, resource management-themed ETFs had the highest net inflows, while multi-tech themed ETFs saw the largest net outflows [3] - A total net outflow of 1.10 million USD was recorded for ETFs investing in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [3] ETF Strategy Performance - The RRG ETF rotation strategy yielded a return of 3.84%, outperforming the CSI Equal Weight and CSI 300 indices by 1.66% and 1.89% respectively [4] - The 50% base + intraday momentum strategy showed varying returns across different ETFs, with the CSI 1000 ETF achieving a return of 2.05% [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4][9] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 3.151 billion yuan in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.2% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 26.9%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was -295 million yuan, marking a shift from profit to loss compared to the previous quarter. Cumulatively, the revenue for the first three quarters reached 11.597 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 46.9%, with a net profit of -532 million yuan [1][4] - The company is focused on technological innovation, leading the N-type technology wave with its ABC technology. This technology has achieved a conversion efficiency of 24.4% for its second-generation N-type ABC modules, maintaining the top position in global commercialized production efficiency for 29 consecutive months [2] - Despite seasonal fluctuations in Q3 shipments, the company's contract liabilities increased by over 30% to 1.187 billion yuan, indicating strong downstream demand and providing solid support for future shipments. Looking ahead to 2026, the company expects improved shipment volume and profitability due to the upcoming peak demand season and the release of higher efficiency ABC module products [2] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are as follows: 15.92 billion yuan in 2025, 24.7 billion yuan in 2026, and 35.641 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 42.7%, 55.2%, and 44.3% respectively [3][8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be -582 million yuan in 2025, 1.153 billion yuan in 2026, and 2.266 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 89.1%, 298.1%, and 96.6% respectively [3][8] - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be -0.27 yuan in 2025, 0.54 yuan in 2026, and 1.07 yuan in 2027 [3][8]

海外政策周报 美联储换届博弈，为何潜在候选人迟迟未决？ 证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 28 日 2025 年下半年以来，美联储主席继任人选的遴选进程持续成为市场焦点。 候选人格局历经多轮动态调整，在财长贝森特于 8 月退出角逐后，遴选工作 由其主持并进一步缩小，最终形成了凯文·哈赛特、凯文·沃什以及现任理事 克里斯托弗·沃勒三人竞争的"决赛圈"。尽管哈赛特的当选概率一度因特朗普 的言论升至 80%，但随着特朗普对沃什表现出浓厚兴趣，目前局面再度扑朔 迷离，呈现出哈赛特微幅领先、沃什与沃勒紧随其后的竞争态势。 三位候选人虽均支持降息，但在具体的货币政策立场上有所分歧。哈赛特持 有最激进的鸽派立场，认为人工智能引发的生产力革命为大幅降息打开了空 间；沃什则将降息视为对过去十五年激进货币实验的修正，并在资产负债表 问题上表现出强烈的鹰派色彩，主张有计划地回归传统；沃勒的立场最为稳 健量化，主张根据经济韧性向中性利率稳步靠拢。从市场反馈看，华尔街机 构更青睐具备货币政策经验和市场公信力的沃什，而对与特朗普政策绑定较 深的哈赛特持有保留意见。 特朗普政府采取"渐进式吹风"的方式多次推迟人选公布时间，意在试探市场 ...

Market Trends - The US stock market has initiated a "Christmas rally," with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving an eight-day winning streak and a weekly increase of 1.88%[10] - The discussion around "year-end rally" and "spring surge" is intensifying, driven primarily by liquidity and risk appetite rather than macroeconomic fundamentals[1] Liquidity and Monetary Policy - Liquidity is not a concern for the upcoming spring surge, with expectations of policy rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in the first half of 2026, although urgency is low[2] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has continued to signal stable liquidity through medium-term lending facility (MLF) operations, with a net injection of 1,000 billion yuan in December[56] Currency and Asset Performance - The Chinese yuan has shown orderly appreciation, with the offshore yuan briefly surpassing the 7.0 mark against the US dollar, indicating a return of correlation between stock and currency movements[17] - The A-share sentiment index rose to approximately 45 on December 26, up nearly 13 percentage points from the previous week, reflecting improved market confidence[19] Industry Insights - Silver and lithium carbonate prices have continued to perform strongly, while industrial production remains weakly differentiated, particularly in the petroleum sector[47] - The automotive sales growth has improved on a month-on-month basis, alongside rising wholesale prices for agricultural products and fruits[47] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected changes in the global economic landscape, geopolitical disturbances, and policy implementations falling short of expectations[3]

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Report's Core Viewpoints - In the neutral scenario, the increase in bond demand from the growth of fixed - income + fund scale may not offset the decrease in bond demand caused by the shrinkage of pure - bond fund scale. Credit bond and convertible bond demand will increase, while interest - rate bond, especially policy - financial bond, demand will significantly decline [1] - In the short term, the bond market has entered a volatile stage after the previous rebound. The core strategy is carry trade, with a focus on allocating safe assets such as 4 - 5 - year credit bonds, 5 - year treasury bonds, and 5 - 7 - year CDB bonds. In January, interest rates may still face upward pressure due to factors like the front - loaded issuance of government bonds and high CD renewal pressure in the first quarter [1][2][33] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. How much bond demand does the growth of fixed - income + fund scale bring? - **1.1 Fixed - income + fund scale and bond - holding structure**: The growth of the equity market has driven up the profitability and scale of fixed - income + funds. From Q4 2024 to Q3 2025, the scale increased from 1.69 trillion yuan to 2.44 trillion yuan. The bond - holding scale of fixed - income + funds has generally risen, reaching 3.3 trillion yuan in Q3 2025 with a 16% QoQ increase. In contrast, the bond - holding scale of pure - bond funds declined to 7.9 trillion yuan in Q3 2025. Both types of funds mainly hold credit bonds, but fixed - income + funds have a higher convertible bond position and a lower policy - financial bond position [10][12] - **1.2 Estimation of the incremental bond demand brought by the growth of bond fund scale in 2026** - **1.2.1 Changes in bond demand due to the growth of fixed - income + fund scale**: Under pessimistic, neutral, and optimistic scenarios, the bond demand scales of fixed - income + funds in 2026 are 3 trillion yuan, 3.40 trillion yuan, and 3.95 trillion yuan respectively, with incremental demands of 2723 billion yuan, 6807 billion yuan, and 12253 billion yuan. The demand for credit bonds may increase significantly. In the neutral scenario, compared with Q4 2025, the increments of general credit bonds and financial bonds are 2740 billion yuan and 1751 billion yuan respectively [18] - **1.2.2 Changes in bond demand due to the shrinkage of pure - bond fund scale**: Under pessimistic, neutral, and optimistic scenarios, the bond demand scales of pure - bond funds in 2026 are 6.58 trillion yuan, 6.97 trillion yuan, and 7.35 trillion yuan respectively, with demand decreases of 11608 billion yuan, 7739 billion yuan, and 3869 billion yuan. The demand for general credit bonds and policy - financial bonds will decrease relatively more. In the neutral scenario, compared with Q4 2025, the changes in general credit bonds and policy - financial bonds are - 2268 billion yuan and - 3043 billion yuan respectively [24] - **1.2.3 Total incremental bond demand brought by fixed - income + funds and pure - bond funds**: In the neutral scenario, overall bond demand decreases. The increase in bond demand from fixed - income + funds may not offset the decrease from pure - bond funds. Credit bond and convertible bond demand increase, while interest - rate bond, especially policy - financial bond, demand decreases significantly. The total demand for credit bonds and interest - rate bonds decreases by 1455 billion yuan [30] - **1.3 Bond market outlook**: In the short term, the bond market is in a volatile stage, and the strategy focuses on carry trade and safe - asset allocation. In January, interest rates may face upward pressure, but it may also present a good allocation window [33] 2. Overview of credit bond yields - From December 22 - 26, 2025, credit bond yields showed mixed trends. General credit bonds like urban investment bonds and industrial bonds performed better than financial bonds, and medium - and high - rated bonds performed better than low - rated ones. Urban investment bonds and industrial bonds mainly saw yield declines, while the yields of other financial bonds showed mixed trends. Insurance sub - bonds had all - around yield declines [34][35] 3. Primary market - **3.1 Issuance volume**: The issuance volume of credit bonds decreased MoM but increased YoY this week. The net financing volume increased both MoM and YoY. The net financing volume of financial bonds increased MoM, while that of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds decreased [42] - **3.2 Issuance cost**: The average issuance interest rate of credit bonds increased. The average issuance interest rate of industrial bonds decreased MoM, while those of urban investment bonds and financial bonds increased. The significant increase in financial bond issuance rates was due to the issuance of some high - interest - rate bonds [51] - **3.3 Issuance term**: The average issuance term of credit bonds decreased MoM. The issuance terms of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds decreased, while that of financial bonds increased [55] - **3.4 Cancellation of issuance**: The number and scale of cancelled credit bond issuances decreased MoM. From December 22 - 26, 8 bonds were cancelled, 2 less than the previous week, and the cancelled issuance scale decreased by 27.54 billion yuan [59] 4. Secondary market - **4.1 Trading volume**: Except for insurance sub - bonds, the trading volumes of other credit bonds rebounded. The trading terms of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds lengthened, while those of bank secondary capital bonds and insurance sub - bonds shortened. The trading terms of bank perpetual bonds and securities firm sub - bonds shifted from the middle to both ends [64] - **4.2 Trading liquidity**: The turnover rates of credit bonds increased. For urban investment bonds, except for the 3 - year - and - below term, the turnover rates of other terms increased, with the 7 - 10 - year term having the largest increase. For industrial bonds, except for the 3 - year - and - below term and the 3 - 5 - year term, the turnover rates of other terms increased, with the 7 - 10 - year term having the largest increase. For financial bonds, except for the 7 - 10 - year term and the 3 - 5 - year term, the turnover rates of other terms increased, with the 10 - year - and - above term having the largest increase [67] - **4.3 Spread tracking**: This week, the spreads of 1 - year and 7 - year urban investment bonds mostly widened, while those of other terms mostly narrowed. The spreads of AAA - rated industrial bonds mostly narrowed, while those of AA - rated industrial bonds mostly widened. The spreads of bank secondary and perpetual bonds mostly widened, with short - term spreads widening more. The spreads of securities firm sub - bonds and insurance sub - bonds mostly narrowed [74][77][79] 5. Weekly hot bonds overview - The report selects the top 20 urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds in terms of liquidity scores for investors' reference [83] 6. Review of credit rating adjustments - According to domestic rating agencies, 3 bonds had their credit ratings upgraded this week, and no bonds had their ratings downgraded [89]

行业周报 | 计算机 英伟达部分收编 Groq，或为补全推理芯片拼图 计算机行业周观点第 46 期 核心结论 计算机：从"+AI"到"AI+"，AI 巨轮破浪前 行 — 2026 年 计 算 机 行 业 年 度 策 略 2025-12-12 12 月 25 日，据 Business insider、CNBC 等外媒报道，英伟达已经同意以约 200 亿美元的现金，收购成立 9 年的 AI 芯片公司 Groq 的核心资产。英伟达 此次并非采取传统的收购标的公司 100%股权的方式。根据 Groq 官方博客与 英伟达的说法，这是一项非排他性授权协议，其主要内容包括：1）业务分 割：英伟达将获得 Groq 的所有资产与技术授权，但 Groq 旗下的 GroqCloud 云端业务并不在交易范围内，将维持独立运作。2）人才吸纳：作为该协议 的一部分，Groq 的创始人 Jonathan Ross、Groq 的总裁 Sunny Madra 以及 Groq 团队的其他成员将加入英伟达，以帮助推进和扩大授权技术的规模。3） 公司独立性：Groq 将继续作为一家"独立公司"运作，由原首席财务官 Simon Edwards 出任新 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 38.08 CNY per share, indicating a positive outlook for the stock's performance in the next 6-12 months [6]. Core Insights - The company is positioned to capitalize on structural upgrades in both the medical and consumer sectors through a dual business model of "medical + consumer" [1][6]. - The medical industry is transitioning from basic consumables to high-value products such as advanced dressings and customized surgical packs, driven by aging populations and rising medical standards [1]. - The consumer side is focusing on high-quality, safe, and environmentally friendly products, reflecting a trend towards health and quality of life [1]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenues of 7.897 billion CNY, a 30.10% increase year-over-year, and a net profit of 732 million CNY, up 32.36% [2]. - The consumer segment generated 4.01 billion CNY in revenue, with significant growth in key product categories: 63.9% for cotton soft towels, 15.7% for high-end sanitary napkins, and 17.3% for comfortable cotton clothing [2]. - The medical segment's revenue reached 3.83 billion CNY, marking a 44.4% increase, driven by the acquisition of GRI, which boosted surgical consumables by 185.3% [2]. Growth Projections - The company is expected to continue its global expansion, focusing on high-value medical products and enhancing synergies from the GRI acquisition [3]. - The strategic plan for the next three years includes specific growth targets and an employee stock incentive program to drive internal motivation [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) projections for 2025-2027 are 1.78 CNY, 2.13 CNY, and 2.44 CNY, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 21.3, 17.9, and 15.6 [3][4].