ERN WE HIST 宏观专题报告 云上于天:经济再平衡 2025年下半年宏观经济、政策与市场展望 · 核心结论 "云上于天"指的是,一件事情或者一个问题的时机尚未成熟,需要耐心等 待,积蓄力量,寻求突破。2023年中我们在《复苏还是修复?一当前经济 修复式增长下的政策选择与市场判断》的深度报告中判断,疫情之后的一段 较长时间,中国经济的状态可能不是复苏,而是修复式增长。过去几年,中 国经济一直在修复式增长的框架内运行。今年4月2日特朗普大幅超预期的 对等关税政策恰似天空中的一片乌云,加大了中国经济修复式增长的难度, 也加剧了中国经济供强于需的局面。中国经济内外部再平衡迫在眉睫. 无论 是短期的"反内卷"政策,还是未来"十五五"期间实现更加平衡的供需框 架,都在向着经济再平衡的方向前进。如果政策如期推进,实现经济再平衡, 那么中国经济修复式增长的框架将被打破,当下宏观价格下行压力将逐步缓 解,中国资产收益率将得以提升,资本市场才能迎来全新的局面。 分析师 S0800522070002 13911826169 bianquanshui@research.xbmail.com.cn 刘奕 S0800522080 ...

ERN DO HASTER 行业日报 | 北交所 缩量下跌,交易情绪降温明显,电力板块逆势上涨 北交所市场点评 -- 20250707 证券研究报告 2025年07月08日 · 核心结论 行情回顾:1)指数层面:7月7日北证Ａ股成交金额达 185.7 亿元,较上 一交易日下跌 75.8 亿元,指数收跌 0.9%。2)个股层面:当日北交所 268 家公司中 105 家上涨,5家平盘,158家下跌。其中涨幅前五的个股分别为: 方大新材(9.9%)、灿能电力(8.7%)、派诺科技(7.8%)、中科美菱(6.6%)、 宏海科技(5.8%);跌幅前五的个股分别为:骑士乳业(-12.7%)、百甲 科技(-6.2%)、七丰精工(-5.6%)、东方碳素(-4.6%)、三元基因(-4.5%)。 新闻汇总:1)"强标"不断!乘用车制动新规含"十项修订"首提"单踏 分析师 雷 森元 S0800524100001 相关研究 北交所:IPO 扩容提速,关注稀缺、景气、低 估三条主线一北交所市场周报 -- 250630-250704 2025-07-07 板"技术要求:强制性国家标准 GB 21670-2025《乘用车制动系统技术要 求 ...

行业周报 | 北交所 IPO 扩容提速，关注稀缺、景气、低估三条主线 北交所市场周报——250630-250704 核心结论 北交所市场复盘：当周北交所全部 A 股日均成交额达 279.8 亿元，环比下跌 17.8%。当周北证 50 收跌 1.7%，当周日均换手率达 3.1%。当周涨幅前五 大个股分别为：云创数据（42.4%）、广道数字（29.9%）、灿能电力（13.2%）、 百甲科技（12.5%）、远航精密（12.2%）；跌幅前五大个股分别为：国源科 技（11.7%）、雅葆轩（-10.5%）、长虹能源（-10.5%）、天马新材（-9.4%）、 灵鸽科技（-9.3%）。 重点新闻及政策：1）三部门发布境外投资者以分配利润直接投资税收抵免 政策：财政部等三部门发布公告，2025 至 2028 年境外投资者以中国境内居 民企业分配的利润用于境内符合条件的直接投资，可按投资额的 10%抵免当 年应纳税额。2）证监会：始终把维护市场稳定作为监管工作首要任务，推 动健全常态化稳市机制安排: 中国证监会召开会议，深入学习习近平同志在 福建的金融论述，部署资本市场落实举措，强调维护市场稳定，推动健全常 态化稳市机制，统筹改 ...

ERN DO HS THE ST 行业日报 | 北交所 上半年北证 50领涨,IPO 受理再提速,关注海洋经济 证券研究报告 2025年07月02日 北交所市场点评 -- 20250701 · 核心结论 行情回顾:1)指数层面:7月1日北证Ａ股成交金额达 307.3 亿元,较上 一交易日下跌 0.07 亿元,指数收涨 0.7%。2)个股层面:当日北交所 268 家公司中 113 家上涨,6家平盘,149家下跌。其中涨幅前五的个股分别为: 华维设计(30.0%)、锦波生物(11.0%)、锦好医疗(10.6%)、倍益康 (10.2%)、驰诚股份(8.3%):跌幅前五的个股分别为:派特尔(-9.4%)、 同辉信息(-9.2%)、国源科技(-7.5%)、云里物里(-6.3%)、美登科技 (-5.8%)。 | 分析师 | | --- | | 曹森元 S0800524100001 | | 19821289688 | | caosenyuan@research.xbmail.com.cn | | 相关研究 | | 北交所:震荡上行,北证专精特新指数正式上 | | 线 - 北交所市场点评 -- 20250630 | | 20 ...

ERN 2 - 1 1 - 1 行业日报 | 北交所 上涨势态延续,锦波生物拟定增引入养生堂 证券研究报告 2025年06月30日 北交所市场点评 -- 20250627 · 核心结论 行情回顾:1)指数层面:6月27日北证A股成交金额达 347.6亿元,较上 一交易日下跌 55.1 亿元,指数收涨 1.06%。2)个股层面:当日北交所 268 家公司中 152 家上涨,7家平盘,109家下跌。其中涨幅前五的个股分别为: 国源科技(16.5%)、天马新材(11.8%)、林泰新材(10.8%)、九菱科 技(10.3%)、雅葆轩(10.2%):跌幅前五的个股分别为:优机股份(-14.8%)、 云创数据(-8.7%)、同辉信息(-8.3%)、方正阀门(-6.8%)、三友科技 (-6.6%)。 | 分析师 | | --- | | 曹森元 S0800524100001 | | 19821289688 | | caosenyuan@research.xbmail.com.cn | | 相关研究 | | 北交所:北证三连阳,情绪高涨,广信科技上 市 - 北 交 所 市 场 点 评 -- 20250625 | | 2025- ...

Market Performance - On June 24, the North Exchange A-shares trading volume reached 33.79 billion yuan, an increase of 9.32 billion yuan from the previous trading day, with the index rising by 3.6%[3] - Among 267 companies listed, 241 saw their stock prices increase, while 26 experienced declines, indicating a strong upward trend in the market[3] Top Gainers and Losers - The top five gainers included: - Sanyou Technology (30.0%) - Yish Precision (18.2%) - Lingge Technology (14.5%) - Jun Chuang Technology (13.8%) - Liandi Information (12.8%) - The top five losers were: - Keli Co., Ltd. (-19.8%) - Air China Ocean (-13.9%) - Huaxi Technology (-13.5%) - Kaitian Gas (-11.4%) - Qifeng Precision (-10.7%) [3][22] Market Sentiment and Strategy - Market sentiment has improved due to the overall recovery of A-shares and positive policy expectations, leading to a shift in capital preference towards high-elasticity small-cap stocks[6] - Investment strategy suggests selecting fundamentally strong and specialized companies for low-cost entry while avoiding high-risk chasing and closely monitoring volume changes and market sentiment shifts[6] Risk Factors - Potential risks include policy regulatory risks, unexpected changes in North Exchange policies, intensified industry competition, and macroeconomic uncertainties[31][32]

Market Overview - On June 18, the trading volume of North Exchange A-shares reached 30.84 billion yuan, an increase of 2.57% compared to the previous trading day[6] - The North Exchange 50 index closed down 0.6% at 1393.44 points, failing to recover the critical 1400-point level[6] Stock Performance - Among 267 companies listed, 84 stocks rose, 0 remained flat, and 183 declined[6] - The top five gainers were: Zhecheng Electronics (19.1%), Qifeng Precision (17.3%), Ruixing Co. (17.2%), Tonghui Information (15.4%), and Yuanhang Precision (10.3%)[6] - The top five losers were: Guangdao Digital (-17.2%), Luqiao Information (-15.7%), Benlang New Materials (-14.1%), Meideng Technology (-10.4%), and Jiuling Technology (-8.7%)[6] Investment Strategy - The overall market sentiment is cautious, with a significant divergence in stock performance, indicating a "more down than up" trend[6] - Focus on undervalued, high-elasticity stocks for potential reverse layout opportunities, especially in sectors with core technology barriers and high growth potential[6] Risk Factors - Key risks include policy regulatory risks, potential underperformance of North Exchange policies, and intensified industry competition[35]

Market Overview - On June 16, the North Exchange A-shares trading volume reached 28.73 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.2 billion yuan from the previous trading day, with the index rising by 1.8%[3] - Among 267 companies listed on the North Exchange, 182 stocks rose, 7 remained flat, and 78 declined, indicating a 70% increase in stock prices[6] Stock Performance - The top five gainers were: Meideng Technology (21.9%), Huaxin Yongdao (19.7%), Keli Co., Ltd. (19.3%), Yishi Precision (15.1%), and Benlang New Materials (11.4%) [3] - The top five decliners were: Yeguangming (-8.8%), Yunchuang Data (-6.4%), Wanda Bearings (-3.9%), Tongguan Mining Construction (-3.7%), and Jiuling Technology (-3.6%) [3] Index Performance - The North Exchange 50 index opened lower but closed higher at 1,408.15 points, up 1.84%, significantly outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen main board indices on the same day[6] - The North Exchange 50 PE TTM is at 72.17 times, indicating a relatively high valuation level historically[19] Market Trends - The market showed structural rotation, with technology and energy sectors leading, particularly oil and gas stocks benefiting from favorable policies regarding stablecoin demand in Hong Kong[6] - Short-term market sentiment remains cautious, with a focus on potential opportunities in oversold mid-line targets amid low trading volumes[6] IPO Activity - Eleven new IPO applications were accepted last week, including six from the North Exchange, indicating ongoing market activity despite external uncertainties[25]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for Gree Electric Appliances (000651.SZ) [2][4][17] Core Views - Gree Electric Appliances is positioned in a high-quality air conditioning segment, with a solid competitive advantage in the high-end price range, and is expected to benefit from industry growth and product structure upgrades, leading to stable performance growth [1][2][17] - The company is projected to achieve revenue growth rates of +8% in 2025, +5% in 2026, and +6% in 2027, with net profit growth rates of +10.1%, +7.7%, and +7.8% respectively [2][17] Summary by Sections 1. Air Conditioning: Excellent Business Model - Air conditioning is a premium sub-sector in home appliances, characterized by dual barriers in consumption and manufacturing, with significant growth potential in both domestic and international markets [1][4] - The industry enjoys long-term growth, with substantial room for penetration and a high proportion of high-end products due to historical luxury positioning [1][4] - The competitive landscape shows a clear tiering, with a stable duopoly in the high-end price segment, maintaining good profit margins [1][4] 2. Gree: Deeply Rooted in the Air Conditioning Sector - Gree's air conditioning business is a major revenue contributor, accounting for approximately 78% of total revenue, with other segments supporting the core business [53] - The company has a strong competitive edge across multiple aspects of product, research and development, and manufacturing, particularly in the high-end price range [61][62] - Gree's valuation is currently low compared to domestic and international peers, indicating potential for upward adjustment [57][58] 3. Long-term Performance Outlook - Gree is expected to maintain stable growth, with a focus on capital expenditure aimed at enhancing automation and business synergy rather than expansion [82] - The company has a high cash position and dividend payout ratio, with a projected dividend yield of 7% in 2025 [82][85] - The report anticipates that Gree will benefit from short-term catalysts such as government subsidies and improved operational momentum [17][82]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company [3][20]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 1.893 billion, 2.823 billion, and 3.959 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of +45.0%, +49.2%, and +40.2%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be -959 million, -655 million, and -210 million yuan for the same years, with year-on-year growth rates of +12.6%, +31.7%, and +68.0% [3][20]. Summary by Sections 1. Leading Company in Humanoid Robotics with Broad Application Scenarios - The company is a pioneer in humanoid robotics and occupies a leading market position, focusing on the design, production, commercialization, sales, and marketing of intelligent service robots and solutions [24]. - The company has established partnerships with several well-known enterprises, enhancing its brand influence and providing stable orders and revenue [25]. - The management team is experienced, with a stable structure and rich industry experience [29]. 2. Steady Revenue Growth with Continuous Product Structure Adjustment - The company has shown steady revenue growth, with a CAGR of 15.24% from 2020 to 2024, achieving a revenue of 1.305 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 23.65% [35]. - The revenue structure is shifting, with the share of logistics robots increasing from 2% to 37% from 2020 to 2023, while the share of educational robots has decreased from 83% to 33% [37]. 3. Strong National Policy Support and Broad Market Space for Humanoid Robots - The government has introduced policies to support the development of the humanoid robotics industry, aiming to establish an innovation system by 2025 and a reliable supply chain by 2027 [44][48]. - The humanoid robotics industry is entering a rapid development phase, with many domestic and international manufacturers launching new products [45]. 4. Continuous High-Intensity R&D Investment and Leading Product Technology - The company has maintained high R&D investment, with an average R&D expenditure of 469 million yuan from 2020 to 2024, holding the largest number of effective humanoid robot patents globally [50]. - The company offers a diverse range of products targeting various application scenarios, including industrial, educational, logistics, and consumer markets [56]. 5. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report anticipates significant revenue growth for the company, with expected revenues of 1.893 billion, 2.823 billion, and 3.959 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, alongside improving net profit figures [20].