北交所市场复盘：当周北交所全部 A 股日均成交额达 185.2 亿元，环比下降 2.6%。当周北证 50 收跌 4.91%，当周日均换手率达 2.2%。当周涨幅前五 大个股分别为：长江能科（246.9%）、利通科技（39.8%）、万通液压（16.6%）、 同惠电子（15.7%）、龙竹科技（10.0%）；跌幅前五大个股分别为：奥美森 （-18.1%）、路桥信息（-17.9%）、常辅股份（-15.6%）、远航精密（-15.4%）、 鼎智科技（-13.7%）。 重点新闻及政策：1）9 月乘用车零售再破历史峰值：上汽时隔五月重夺"销 冠" 比亚迪同比首现负增长：乘联分会发布数据显示，9 月全国乘用车市场 零售 224.1 万辆，同比增长 6.3%，环比增长 11.0%。9 月新能源车在国内总 体乘用车的零售渗透率 57.8%，较去年同期提升 5 个百分点。崔东树预计， 今年四季度车市在政策引导和高增长基础上有望延续平稳增长势头；2）中 国"夸父"又有新跨越 成功打造聚变堆"盾牌"：13 日上午，聚变堆主机 关键系统综合研究设施"夸父"（CRAFT）取得重要进展——偏滤器原型部 件顺利通过专家组测试与验收；3）马斯克画 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hikvision Technology Co., Ltd. (002415.SZ) [4] Core Insights - Innovation-driven business segments are identified as the core drivers of revenue growth and valuation restructuring for Hikvision, with innovative business revenue reaching 11.766 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 13.9%, accounting for 28.1% of total revenue [1][4][12] - The report highlights the strong performance of various innovative business units, including Hikvision Robotics, Smart Home, Automotive Electronics, and Thermal Imaging, which collectively contribute to the company's sustainable growth [1][12] Summary by Sections 1. Innovation Business Driving Growth and Valuation Restructuring - Hikvision's innovative business segments include Hikvision Robotics, Smart Home, Automotive Electronics, Thermal Imaging, and Storage, which are essential for the company's long-term sustainable development [11][12] - In the first half of 2025, the revenue from innovative businesses was 11.766 billion yuan, with the largest contributions from Robotics (27%), Smart Home (23%), Automotive Electronics (20%), and Thermal Imaging (17%) [12][15] 1.1 Hikvision Robotics - The Robotics segment focuses on mobile robots and machine vision, achieving a "hand, eye, and foot" collaborative closed-loop system to enhance digital and intelligent upgrades in production and logistics [14][18] - The market demand for machine vision and mobile robots continues to grow, with Hikvision holding a significant market share in China [22][23] 1.2 Smart Home - The Smart Home business, driven by AI and the Hikvision Cloud, has upgraded its product architecture to "2+5+N," covering various AI interaction product lines [26][31] - The global smart home market is expected to exceed 200 billion USD by 2027, providing substantial growth opportunities for Hikvision's Smart Home segment [31][34] 1.3 Automotive Electronics - The Automotive Electronics segment benefits from the increasing penetration of intelligent driving features, with a focus on multi-sensing products [39][40] - The delivery of NOA (Navigation on Autopilot) equipped vehicles in China is projected to grow significantly, driving demand for related sensors [40][41] 1.4 Thermal Imaging - The Thermal Imaging segment, led by Hikvision Weiying, is expanding its applications from niche markets to broader scenarios, supported by advancements in infrared thermal imaging technology [42][44] - The global market for civilian infrared thermal imaging is expected to grow rapidly, with Hikvision poised to benefit from this trend [46][48] 1.5 Storage - Hikvision's storage business is expected to see marginal improvements in performance due to a balanced supply-demand situation in the NAND Flash market [51][54] - The company focuses on various storage solutions, including SSDs and embedded products, catering to multiple application scenarios [53] Investment Recommendations - The report forecasts revenues for Hikvision to reach 95.036 billion yuan, 102.284 billion yuan, and 112.142 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 14.040 billion yuan, 15.557 billion yuan, and 17.344 billion yuan [55]

行情回顾：1）指数层面：10 月 17 日北证 A 股成交金额达 165.6 亿元，较 上一交易日减少 11.81 亿元，北证 50 指数收盘价为 1432.87，下跌 3.75%， PE_TTM 为 67.43 倍。北证专精特新指数收盘价为 2554.73，下跌 4.01%。 2）个股层面：当日北交所 279 家公司中 21 家上涨，3 家平盘，255 家下跌。 其中涨幅前五的个股分别为：利通科技（15.5%）、龙竹科技（9.0%）、天 罡股份（8.1%）、恒合股份（4.2%）、昆工科技（3.6%）；跌幅前五的个 股分别为：宏远股份（-9.1%）、常辅股份（-7.8%）、广信科技（-7.6%）、 倍益康（-7.4%）、骏创科技（-7.2%）。 新闻汇总：1）国常会：要提升外贸企业绿色低碳发展能力，推动企业开展 绿色设计和生产：会议强调物流降本提质增效，建设现代物流体系，推进物 流数据开放互联，支持物流企业发展。会议指出发展绿色贸易重要性，完善 政策制度体系，提升企业绿色低碳发展能力，拓展产品和技术进出口。 重点公告：1）广咨国际：同意公司使用额度不超过人民币 3,000 万元的闲 置募集资金进行现金管理。截 ...

黄金：量价齐升，盈利能力持续增强，25 年前三季度矿产金占集团毛利比 例已提升至 40.4%。1）量：2025 年 1-9 月，公司矿产金产量 64.9 吨，同 比+19.7%，超过全年计划指标时序进度，其增量来自于新并购的加纳阿基 姆金矿（交割后 5 个月贡献产量 3.2 吨）、新投产的萨瓦亚尔顿金矿，以及 处理量提升的山西义兴寨金矿、贵州水银洞金矿、塞尔维亚博尔铜金矿等。 其中 Q3 为 23.8 吨，同比+26.0%，环比+7.4%。2）利：得益于金价明显上 行，25 年前三季度公司矿产金单位毛利同比增长 64.8%至 451.7 元/克，毛 利率为 62.7%，同比+8.3pct，其中 Q3 单位毛利为 488.7 元/g，同比+ 60.8%， 环比+4.8%，盈利能力持续增强。2025 前三季度矿产金占集团毛利比例已提 升至 40.4%，成为公司第一大盈利来源。 矿产铜：受卡莫阿-卡库拉铜矿淹井事件影响，25Q3 矿产铜产量环比小幅下 降，但价格端继续维持强势，铜矿盈利环比维持稳健增长。1）量： 2025 年 1-9 月，公司矿产铜产量 83.0 万吨，同比+5.1%，其中 Q3 产量为 26.3 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The current gold market is driven by "reserve value" rather than "trading value," with central banks increasing gold reserves as a safeguard against the weakening trust in the US dollar [6][7][10] - Since 2016, there have been three significant expansions in the cracks of dollar credit, correlating with major surges in gold prices [6][8][9] - The World Gold Council reports that 95% of global central banks plan to increase their gold holdings in the next 12 months, indicating strong support for gold prices [7] Group 2: Hikvision (002415.SZ) Performance - Hikvision's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 657.58 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.18%, with a net profit of 93.19 billion yuan, up 14.94% [17][19] - The company is focusing on domestic business opportunities and has seen a narrowing decline in its SMBG business, with a significant increase in cash flow [18][19] - Future revenue projections for Hikvision are 950.36 billion yuan, 1,022.84 billion yuan, and 1,121.42 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with net profits expected to be 140.40 billion yuan, 155.57 billion yuan, and 173.44 billion yuan respectively [19] Group 3: Siyuan Electric (002028.SZ) Performance - Siyuan Electric reported a revenue of 138.27 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a 32.86% increase, with a net profit of 21.91 billion yuan, up 46.94% [21][22] - The company has a strong order backlog and is actively preparing for increased business demand, with inventory rising by 44.58% [21][22] - Future net profit projections for Siyuan Electric are 29.03 billion yuan, 37.32 billion yuan, and 48.05 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding EPS of 3.72, 4.78, and 6.15 yuan [22] Group 4: Fuyao Glass (600660.SH) Performance - Fuyao Glass achieved a revenue of 333.0 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a 17.6% increase, with a net profit of 70.6 billion yuan, up 28.9% [24][26] - The company is experiencing a transition in management, which is expected to support its strategic development [25][26] - Future revenue projections for Fuyao Glass are 460 billion yuan, 525 billion yuan, and 608 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with net profits expected to be 94 billion yuan, 106 billion yuan, and 124 billion yuan respectively [26] Group 5: Tunan Co. (688231.SH) Performance - Tunan Co. reported a revenue of 8.59 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a decrease of 20.5%, with a net profit of 1.23 billion yuan, down 52.2% [28][29] - The company is in a phase of investment and production ramp-up, which has temporarily affected profitability [28][29] - Future revenue projections for Tunan Co. are 15.2 billion yuan, 20.6 billion yuan, and 25.6 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with net profits expected to be 2.8 billion yuan, 4.2 billion yuan, and 5.3 billion yuan respectively [29] Group 6: Cangge Mining (000408.SZ) Performance - Cangge Mining achieved a revenue of 24.01 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a 3.35% increase, with a net profit of 27.51 billion yuan, up 47.26% [31][32] - The growth in Q3 was notable despite the suspension of lithium carbonate production, driven by copper and potassium chloride businesses [31][32] - Future EPS projections for Cangge Mining are 2.19, 3.12, and 3.96 yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 26, 18, and 15 [33]

行业周报 | 有色金属 中美经贸摩擦反复，宏观不确定性加大商品价格波动 证券研究报告 2025 年 10 月 20 日 有色金属行业周报（2025.10.13-2025.10.19） 核心结论 本周核心关注一：中美经贸摩擦反复，宏观不确定加大背景下商品波动加大 10 月以来中美贸易摩擦升级，10 月初美国宣布对中国拥有、运营或建造的 船舶征收多项新费用，新规将于 2025 年 10 月 14 日起生效。随后 10 月 9 日，商务部、海关总署联合发布 4 则公告，对超硬材料、稀土设备和原辅料、 钬等 5 种中重稀土、锂电池和人造石墨负极材料相关物项实施出口管制。10 月 10 日，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体上宣布：从 11 月 1 日起，对中国产品 征收 100%关税；并对所有关键软件实施出口管制。中美贸易谈判形势在短 时间内骤然恶化，商品价格波动也明显加大。不过 10 月 18 日中美经贸中方 牵头人、国务院副总理何立峰与美方牵头人、美国财政部长贝森特和贸易代 表格里尔举行视频通话，同意尽快举行新一轮中美经贸磋商。整体来看，我 们认为自 10 月以来中美贸易摩擦再度升级后，此处对话在一定程度上也标 志着中美双 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 657.58 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 1.18%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 93.19 billion yuan, up 14.94% year-on-year [1][6]. - The company is actively seeking domestic business opportunities related to its main operations while maintaining stable and rapid growth in overseas and innovative businesses [1]. - The company has implemented a profit-centered operational strategy, focusing on shareholder returns, with a significant increase in cash flow from operating activities, reaching 136.97 billion yuan, a 426% year-on-year increase [2][3]. Summary by Sections Business Performance - Domestic main operations are adjusting organizational structure and resource allocation based on macroeconomic conditions, targeting sectors like transportation, electronics, petrochemicals, and power [1]. - Overseas revenue growth has slowed down, but most regions outside the U.S., Canada, and India still maintain double-digit growth [1]. - Innovative businesses, including robotics and automotive electronics, have seen high revenue growth driven by demand in downstream industries [1][3]. Financial Metrics - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 239.40 billion yuan, a 0.66% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin of 45.67%, up 1.65 percentage points [2]. - The net profit for Q3 2025 was 36.62 billion yuan, reflecting a 20.31% year-on-year increase, significantly outpacing revenue growth [2]. - The company has completed a mid-term cash dividend of 36.66 billion yuan and has repurchased shares worth 20.28 billion yuan over the past 12 months, totaling 121.25 billion yuan in shareholder returns [2]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to generate revenues of 950.36 billion yuan, 1022.84 billion yuan, and 1121.42 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits projected at 140.40 billion yuan, 155.57 billion yuan, and 173.44 billion yuan [3]. - The outlook remains positive due to anticipated recovery in domestic market demand and opportunities in AI and digitalization [3].

策略周报 中国资产的"黄金时代" 策略周末谈（1019） 核心结论 1、冰火转换时刻将至：中国资产重启"黄金时代" 2018 年中国进入工业化成熟期，制造业全球竞争优势积累大量国民财富，驱动 居民消费升级，宁组合/茅指数等制造/消费类资产开启"核心资产牛"。2022-2024 年美联储加息导致跨境资本和国民财富外流，梗阻"核心资产牛"。当前美联储 重启降息，跨境资本和国民财富将加速回流，中国制造/消费类资产将重启"黄 金时代"。本周 A 股风格切换，或预示着制造/消费"冰火转换"时刻将至。 2、中国资产"黄金时代"的基础：制造业出口竞争优势 过去几年制造业高度"内卷"反而能夯实其全球竞争优势，扛住 2025 年关税冲 击，继续积累国民财富。制造业对外净出口规模扩张，带来人民币汇率长期升值。 当前美联储重启降息，也将强化人民币升值趋势，驱动大量的跨境资本+国民财 富回流，中国居民的消费能力和消费意愿将会修复。在制造业强劲的出口竞争优 势"保驾护航"下，中国优质的制造/消费类资产的"冰火转换"时刻将至。 3、中国资产"黄金时代"的路径：A 股盈利和现金流修复 A 股盈利底部修复阶段往往对应着出口扩张和消费升级。（ ...

Global and A-share Market Overview - The A-share market experienced an overall decline last week, with the Sci-Tech 50 index dropping the most at 6.16% [1][10] - The Hong Kong stock market also saw a decrease, with the Hang Seng Index falling by 3.97% [1][10] - In the US market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 1.56%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices rose by 1.70% and 2.14%, respectively [1][10] ETF New Issuance Statistics - Five new stock ETFs were reported in the A-share market last week, and three new stock ETFs were established [1][15] - In the US market, 11 equity ETFs were newly established, with 9 being actively managed ETFs [1][22] Fund Flow in A-share Market - The top 10 net inflows in A-share ETFs were primarily in the financial sector, with the Bank ETF seeing a net inflow of 52.77 billion yuan [2][24] - The top 10 net outflows were dominated by the CSI A500 ETF, which experienced a net outflow of 30.20 billion yuan [2][25] - Among broad-based ETFs, the CSI 200 index saw a net inflow of 14.44 billion yuan, while the CSI A500 index had a net outflow of 86.02 billion yuan [2][30] Fund Flow in US Market - In the US market, energy transition theme ETFs had the highest net inflow, while financial technology theme ETFs saw the largest net outflow [3][23] - The total net outflow from ETFs investing in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks amounted to 356 million USD [3][23] ETF Strategy Performance - The performance of the diffusion indicator + RRG ETF rotation strategy yielded a return of -5.37%, underperforming the CSI Equal Weight Index and the CSI 300 Index by 2.87% and 3.14%, respectively [4][29] - The 50% base + intraday momentum strategy showed varying returns across different ETFs, with the Shanghai 50 ETF yielding -0.34% [4][29]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the insurance sector and recommends long-term investment in quality bank stocks [1][3]. Core Insights - The financial sector's performance this week shows a mixed trend, with the non-bank financial index down by 1.34%, while the banking sector saw an increase of 4.89%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 7.12 percentage points [1][9]. - The insurance sector experienced a notable increase of 3.65%, driven by positive earnings forecasts from New China Life, which projected a 45% to 65% increase in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 [1][11]. - The report emphasizes the growth potential of the insurance industry, attributing it to supply-side reforms and the benefits from rising equity assets [1][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Performance and Sector Insights - The non-bank financial index decreased by 1.34%, while the banking sector increased by 4.89%, with state-owned banks leading the gains [1][9]. - The insurance sector outperformed the CSI 300 index by 5.87 percentage points, with New China Life's earnings announcement boosting overall market confidence [1][11]. 2. Insurance Sector Analysis - New China Life's earnings forecast led to a 12.58% increase in its stock price over five trading days, contributing to a six-day rally in the insurance sector [1][11]. - The report highlights the potential for the insurance sector to benefit from structural changes in the economy and improved asset performance [1][12]. 3. Brokerage Sector Analysis - The brokerage sector saw a decline of 3.13%, with a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.44x, indicating potential undervaluation [2][15]. - The report notes that the recent revisions to corporate governance standards by the CSRC could enhance the sector's governance and performance [2][15]. 4. Banking Sector Analysis - The banking sector's performance was strong, with a 4.89% increase, driven by a flight to quality amid market uncertainties [1][18]. - The report suggests focusing on banks with high growth potential and stable performance for both short-term and long-term investments [1][21].