Group 1: Macro Trends - The report outlines ten macro trends for 2026, indicating that the economy will continue to experience restorative growth, with real estate being a key variable affecting economic performance [6][7][8] - It predicts a moderate recovery in domestic inflation, leading to an acceleration in nominal GDP growth, expected to rise from 4% in 2025 to 5% in 2026 [6][7] - The report anticipates a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026, maintaining a budget deficit rate of 4% and supporting domestic demand and technological innovation [6][7] Group 2: Eastroc Beverage (605499.SH) - Eastroc Beverage is expected to benefit from a comprehensive national layout and active overseas expansion, with its main product line showing strong growth potential [11][12] - The energy drink market is projected to reach 62.8 billion yuan by 2025, with Eastroc's 500ml bottled energy drink becoming one of the best-selling products in its category [11][12] - The company plans to enhance its distribution network, aiming for nearly 100% coverage of prefecture-level cities and increasing the number of freezers deployed to 600,000 over the next three to five years [12][13] - Revenue forecasts for Eastroc are 21.2 billion yuan in 2025, 26.3 billion yuan in 2026, and 31.6 billion yuan in 2027, with net profits expected to be 4.6 billion yuan, 5.7 billion yuan, and 7.1 billion yuan respectively [11][12] Group 3: Jinhua New Materials (920015.BJ) - Jinhua New Materials is positioned as a "small giant" in the fine chemicals sector, with stable growth expected in its silane crosslinking agent business and strong progress in high-margin hydroxylamine aqueous solution [16][17] - The company has successfully developed electronic-grade hydroxylamine aqueous solution, which has been validated by several chip manufacturers, indicating a strong market demand [16][17] - Revenue projections for Jinhua are 1.04 billion yuan in 2025, 1.40 billion yuan in 2026, and 1.84 billion yuan in 2027, with net profits expected to be 200 million yuan, 280 million yuan, and 390 million yuan respectively [16][17]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company Dongpeng Beverage (605499.SH) [6] Core Insights - The energy drink market in China is expected to expand, with Dongpeng maintaining a strong position as a market leader. The market size is projected to reach 62.8 billion yuan by 2025, growing at a rate of 4% [1][39] - Dongpeng is actively pursuing global expansion, with significant potential in overseas markets such as Vietnam, India, Thailand, the Philippines, and Indonesia, which are expected to grow at CAGRs of 8% to 53% from 2020 to 2025 [1][39] - The company has established a robust national distribution network, covering nearly 100% of prefecture-level cities in China, with over 4.2 million retail outlets and plans to deploy an additional 600,000 refrigerators in the next three to five years [2][39] - The report highlights the successful launch of the "Brewed Water" product line, which is expected to capture a significant market share in the sports drink segment, with sales projected to reach 33.55 billion yuan by 2027 [3][14] Summary by Sections Energy Drink Market Expansion - The energy drink market in China is experiencing rapid growth, with a projected market size of 62.8 billion yuan by 2025, reflecting a 4% increase [1][39] - Dongpeng's flagship product, the 500ml bottled energy drink, is expected to become one of the best-selling products in the Chinese soft drink market by 2024 [1][39] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing market expansion and increasing consumer demand [1][39] Channel Development - Dongpeng has built a large sales team and extensive distribution network, achieving nearly complete coverage of prefecture-level cities in China [2][39] - The company has invested in over 400,000 refrigerators to enhance product visibility and accessibility at retail points [2][39] - Revenue growth in key regions such as North China and Southwest China has been significant, with increases of 73% and 49% respectively [2][39] New Product Development - The "Brewed Water" product line is gaining traction, with sales expected to surpass competitors in the sports drink category [3][14] - The company is focusing on high-value, cost-effective products to capture market share in price-sensitive segments [3][14] - The report anticipates continued revenue growth from new product lines, with projections of 21.2 billion yuan in 2025 and 31.6 billion yuan by 2027 [3][14] Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow significantly, with estimates of 21.2 billion yuan in 2025, 26.3 billion yuan in 2026, and 31.6 billion yuan in 2027 [3][4] - Net profit is projected to reach 4.56 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 37% [4][3] - The company's price-to-earnings ratio is expected to decrease from 31 times in 2025 to 20 times by 2027, indicating strong growth potential [3][4]

Group 1: Futures Industry Insights - The futures industry is expected to experience significant changes driven by market expansion, policy reforms, and evolving industry dynamics. Key factors include the continuous expansion of trading varieties and increased demand from industrial clients, which will provide long-term growth opportunities for the industry [1][6][7] - The implementation of the "Futures Company Supervision and Management Measures" is anticipated to facilitate new business opportunities such as proprietary trading and margin financing, enhancing the industry's innovation capabilities and improving revenue structures [1][6][7] - The industry is likely to see increased concentration as traditional brokerage commission rates come under pressure, leading to accelerated innovation and deeper cross-border business development [1][6][7] Group 2: Market Performance and Strategy - The A-share market is expected to witness a significant bull market in 2026, with a focus on sectors such as non-ferrous metals, new consumption, and high-end manufacturing, which are projected to benefit from improved consumer wealth and export competitiveness [2][10][13] - The insurance sector is emerging as a new leader in the bull market, with its performance confirming the market's upward trajectory. The transition from intermediary institutions to asset management institutions is seen as a natural evolution in the market [12][13] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on sectors with clear policy catalysts, such as commercial aerospace, robotics, and semiconductors, as well as companies with strong performance certainty in the specialized and innovative sectors [4][23] Group 3: Company-Specific Developments - Longxin Co., Ltd. is progressing with its Hong Kong listing and global expansion, with expected revenues of 604 million, 904 million, and 1.279 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, alongside net profits of 181 million, 319 million, and 429 million yuan [3][16][18] - The company is advancing its automotive-grade SerDes and PCIe products, which are expected to contribute significantly to revenue growth, with ongoing market promotion and successful product certifications [16][18] - The AI chip market is projected to grow significantly, with Longxin's revenue from AI and HPC expected to increase, supported by the development of high-density storage solutions and advanced chip technologies [17][18]

公司动态跟踪 | 龙迅股份 港股上市提速全球化布局,AI运力与智能车载共筑成长双 证券研究报告 2026 年 01 月 06 日 龙迅股份(688486.SH)动态跟踪 核心结论 智能车载：车规级认证持续完善，基于自研 ADP 协议的车载 SerDes 进展顺利。公司车 载产品应用领域涵盖座舱域和驾驶域,如传感器与域控制器、控制器与显示器、多系统 多屏幕互连等场景，截至 2025 年 9 月 30 日公司已开发 14 颗通过 AEC-Q100 认证的车 规级芯片。公司车载 SerDes 芯片组基于自研 ADP 协议,可实现车载摄像头与显示器信 号的长距离传输,已有４颗通过了 AEC-Q100 测试认证,其余料号认证稳步推进。目前 车载 SerDes 芯片组已处于全面市场推广阶段,在 eBike 等新业务领域已实现量产,汽 车厂商的验证测试工作也在积极推进中。 Al 领域：云侧精准卡位,端侧多点开花。 A 云侧 AI: 根据弗若斯特沙利文的资料，AI 运力芯片市场规模预计从 2025 年的人民 币 1,289 亿元增长至 2029年的人民币 2,739 亿元,复合年增长率为 20.7%。公司正基于 在高带宽 S ...

证券研究报告 乘政策东风、顺产业需求： 期货行业专题报告系列之一 西部证券研发中心 2026年1月6日 分析师 | 孙寅 S0800524120007 邮箱地址sunyin@reserch.xbmail.com.cn 张佳蓉 S0800524080001 邮箱地址zhangjiarong@research.xbmail.com.cn 核心结论 行业评级 超配 前次评级 超配 评级变动 维持 近一年行业走势 -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 2025-01 2025-05 2025-09 多元金融 沪深300 相对表现(%) 1个月 3个月 12个月 多元金融 3.83 0.14 22.26 沪深300 2.91 1.66 25.17 资料来源：西部证券研发中心,截至2025/1/5 请务必仔细阅读报告尾部的投资评级说明和声明 2 我国期货行业在规范改革下深化发展、不断壮大，行业成交额持续扩张。经过三十余年发展，我国期货 市场已形成了"5+1"的期货交易所体系，截至2025年10月底，我国共上市期货期权品种151个，已覆盖 农产品、金属、能源、化工等多个国民经济重要领域。从规模来看，截 ...

Core Conclusions - The report highlights a significant market event where the Shanghai Composite Index surged by 1.38% on the first trading day of 2026, breaking the 4000-point threshold, indicating a strong market sentiment and increased trading volume across A-shares [1] Group 1: Market Signals - Signal One: Transition from "Volume Hesitation" to "Volume Initiation" suggests that the substantial increase in trading volume at the start of the year alleviates concerns about previous low-volume gains. The report anticipates a "re-inflation bull market" driven by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and the appreciation of the RMB, leading to a significant increase in A-share trading volume, with expected lows of 500 billion and 1 trillion in total A-share turnover in September 2024 and June 2025 respectively, confirming the initiation of a major upward trend [1][6] - Signal Two: The report notes a structural thematic and growth market emerging, referred to as the "spring excitement" market, with various themes gaining traction such as brain-machine interfaces, robotics, and commercial aerospace. However, it cautions that sustained high trading volumes may not be realistic, and a potential reduction in volume could lead to a narrowing of thematic trading focus [2] - Signal Three: The insurance sector is identified as a new leader in the bull market, with its recent volume increase confirming the market's upward trend. Historically, insurance has been a key driver in market rallies, and the report suggests a shift from intermediary institutions to asset management institutions as the market transitions from a volatile to a more stable investment environment [3][12] Group 2: Industry Allocation - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on the insurance sector and a "new high" combination for industry allocation. It suggests that 2025 may be a prelude to a bull market, with 2026 expected to witness the main trend. Key sectors to watch include non-ferrous metals, new consumption (food and beverage/travel), and high-end manufacturing (power equipment/chemicals/healthcare) [4][14]

Group 1: Computer Industry Insights - DeepSeek has released the mHC framework, which indicates the evolution direction for next-generation infrastructure, enhancing large model training stability, speed, and cost-effectiveness [3][4] - The mHC architecture introduces manifold constraints, utilizing the Sinkhorn-Knopp algorithm to project residual mapping matrices onto Birkhoff polytope, demonstrating superior performance and scalability in large-scale training [3][4] - The mHC framework is expected to inspire new research paths and improve the balance between plasticity and stability in model training, potentially leading to innovative methods in architecture design [4] Group 2: AI Chip Design Paradigm - The mHC framework proposes a new paradigm for AI chip design by addressing the mismatch between computing power and bandwidth, advocating for a shift from "computing power-first" to "efficiency-first" in chip design [5] - mHC's optimization techniques, such as kernel fusion and selective recomputation, significantly reduce bandwidth requirements by consolidating multiple memory accesses into a single access [5] - The introduction of specialized projection operator acceleration units in chip design could disrupt the current dominance of general-purpose computing units in AI chips, promoting a heterogeneous architecture [5] Group 3: Non-ferrous Metals Industry Insights - The non-ferrous metals sector remains promising, with China's manufacturing PMI for December 2025 exceeding expectations, indicating an overall economic recovery [9] - The U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending December 27, 2025, were lower than expected, suggesting a strengthening labor market [10] - Geopolitical tensions have escalated following U.S. military actions in Venezuela, which may impact the non-ferrous metals market due to increased security risks [11] Group 4: North Exchange Market Insights - The North Exchange market is expected to see a spring rally, supported by high-quality expansion and liquidity improvements, despite short-term profit-taking pressures [14][16] - Recent policy initiatives, including the digital transformation plan for the automotive industry, are anticipated to provide opportunities for high-end manufacturing enterprises in the North Exchange [16] - The North Exchange's valuation remains attractive compared to the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, suggesting a favorable investment environment for institutional investors [16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the North Exchange, suggesting a "overweight" rating for the industry, indicating an expected increase in performance exceeding the market benchmark by more than 10% over the next 6-12 months [31]. Core Insights - The North Exchange market is experiencing a short-term consolidation, but the expectation of favorable policies continues to strengthen. Key policies in sectors such as automotive digital transformation and commercial aerospace are anticipated to provide opportunities for high-end manufacturing companies listed on the North Exchange [3][25]. - The technology sector is highlighted as a leading driver of structural opportunities, with companies focusing on new productivity areas such as AI, commercial aerospace, and robotics showing significant growth potential [26]. - The North Exchange's valuation remains lower than that of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, presenting a favorable cost-performance ratio for investors [27]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The average daily trading volume of all A-shares on the North Exchange reached 19.42 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.8% week-on-week. The North Exchange 50 index fell by 1.55%, with an average turnover rate of 2.7% [7][15]. - The top five gainers for the week included Hengdongguang (878.2%), Tianming Technology (65.8%), and Lifan Holdings (29.9%), while the top five losers included *ST Guandao (-61.3%) and Hongyu Packaging (-32.0%) [15][17]. Key News and Policies - The Ministry of Finance emphasizes the need to enhance the effectiveness and precision of fiscal macro-control to support domestic demand expansion [2][22]. - The automotive industry is set for a digital transformation, with a goal to improve the maturity level of intelligent manufacturing capabilities by 2027 [20]. Core Driving Factors - The report identifies a strong expectation of policy dividends and the potential for incremental capital inflow into the market, particularly with the introduction of the North Exchange 50 ETF and other key policies [25]. - The technology sector is expected to lead the market, with companies like Tianli Composite and Tianming Technology showing significant stock price increases due to their focus on advanced technologies [26]. Investment Recommendations and Strategies - Institutional investors are advised to adopt a "steady layout, dual-line advancement" strategy, focusing on policy-driven technology growth sectors and selecting companies with high R&D investment and strong technological barriers [28]. - The report highlights the value of new share offerings, noting an average first-day increase of 368% for new stocks in 2025, with an expected increase in supply in 2026 [28].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-ferrous metal sector, highlighting potential investment opportunities amidst geopolitical tensions and inventory dynamics [1][4]. Core Insights - China's manufacturing PMI for December 2025 exceeded expectations, indicating a general recovery in economic sentiment [1][14]. - The U.S. initial jobless claims fell below expectations, suggesting a stronger labor market than anticipated [2][15]. - Geopolitical tensions escalated with U.S. military actions in Venezuela, raising security risks in the region [3][16]. - China is tightening regulations on copper and alumina production capacity in its new five-year plan, aiming to curb disorderly investments [4][17]. - CME raised margin requirements for precious metals futures twice within two weeks, impacting silver prices while potentially supporting gold prices due to geopolitical uncertainties [5][18]. Market Review - The non-ferrous metal sector slightly outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 0.41% [9]. - Industrial metals showed a notable performance, with copper prices rising and inventory imbalances becoming more pronounced [19][22]. - Precious metals faced downward pressure due to margin increases, but geopolitical tensions may drive gold prices higher [31][36]. Price and Inventory Changes - Copper prices on LME reached $12,460.50 per ton, up 2.70% week-on-week, while SHFE copper prices were at ¥98,240.00 per ton, down 0.49% [19][22]. - LME aluminum prices increased to $3,021.00 per ton, with SHFE prices at ¥22,925.00 per ton [19][22]. - Zinc prices on LME were $3,127.00 per ton, with SHFE prices at ¥23,275.00 per ton [20][21]. - Inventory levels for copper on LME decreased by 5.98% to 145,325 tons, while SHFE inventory increased by 30.11% to 145,342 tons [23]. Strategic Metal Insights - Cobalt prices rose due to supply constraints, with electrolytic cobalt priced at ¥456,000 per ton [40][41]. - Tungsten prices continued to rise, supported by supply reductions and policy controls, with average prices for tungsten bars at ¥1,180.00 per kg [46][48]. - The report emphasizes the potential for strategic metals and small metals to experience valuation reconstruction opportunities due to ongoing export control measures and market dynamics [57].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [2][9] Core Insights - DeepSeek has introduced the mHC framework, which enhances the stability, speed, and cost-effectiveness of large model training [2] - The mHC architecture is a significant extension of the Hyper-Connections (HC) paradigm, paving the way for future research and innovations in model training [3] - The mHC framework combines manifold constraints with engineering optimizations, potentially revolutionizing AI chip design by addressing the mismatch between computing power and bandwidth [4] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The mHC framework is expected to provide substantial performance improvements in large-scale model training, demonstrating stability and efficiency [2][3] Technological Advancements - The introduction of manifold constraints in the mHC framework allows for various explorations tailored to specific learning objectives, which may lead to novel methods balancing flexibility and stability [3] - The mHC framework's approach to software adapting to hardware bottlenecks challenges traditional chip design paradigms, promoting a shift towards efficiency [4] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on domestic AI chip companies such as Cambrian, Haiguang Information, Moer Thread, Muxi Co., and Birun Technology as potential investment opportunities [5]